Mon Apr 30 Trade Signal Summary

20180430
Short 1 RTY 1562.7, -0.5
Short 2 RTY 1567.2, 1566.8, +2.0, +1.2
Short 1 NQ 6796.5, -0.0
Short 2 NQ 6703.0, 6702.25, -2.0, +4.0
Short 2 NQ 6717.25, 6717.5, +10.0, +4.0
Total NQ +16.0
Total RTY +2.7

Fri Apr 27 Trade Signal Summary

20180427
Long 5 RTY 1561.0, 1560.0, 1559.6, 1559.8, 1560.2, -1.6, +4.0 +4.0, +4.0, +2.6
Long 1 RTY 1555.0, -1.6
Long 2 RTY 1554.9, 1554.9, -0.0, -0.0
Long 2 RTY 1548.7, 1548.7, +2.0, +5.0
Total RTY +14.4

Thurs Apr 26 Trade Signal Summary

20180426
Short 1 NQ 6597.0, +10.0
Short 1 RTY 1554.3, +3.0
Long 2 RTY 1550.4, 1550.4, +1.2, +4.0
Short 1 NQ 6617.0, -2.25
Total NQ +7.75
Total RTY +8.2

Wed Apr 25 Trade Signal Summary

20180425
Short 1 NQ 6524.0, +14.0
Short 1 YM 23863, +20
Long 2 NQ 6436.75, 6436.75, -2.25, -2.25
Long 3 NQ 6431.75, 6431.75, 6431.75, +7.0, +20.0, +19.5
Total YM +20
Total NQ +56.0

Tues Apr 24 Trade Signal Summary

20180424
Short 1 YM 24510, -9
Short 2 NQ 6695.0, 6694.25, +5.0, +10.0
Short 2 YM 24531, 24531, +10, +20
Long 1 NQ 6671.25, -2.50
Long 2 NQ 6664.5, 6664.5, +3.0, -3.25
Long 2 RTY 1570.7, 1570.3, +2.0, +1.2
Long 2 NQ 6626.5, 6626.5, -2..25, -2.25
Long 1 NQ 6621.5, -2.25
Long 2 RTY 1571.1, 1571.1, -1.4, -1.4
Long 3 NQ 6616.5, 6616.5, 66.16.5, +5.0, +10.0, +10.0
Long 2 RTY 1569.3, 1569.3, +1.2, -0.0
Total YM +21
Total NQ +30.5
Total RTY +1.6

Mon Apr 23 Trades & Journal

20180423
Long 1 ES 2673.0, -1.25
Long 2 NQ 6681.0, 6681.0, +5.0, -1.0
Long 2 NQ 6677.0, 6677.0, -2.25, -2.25
Long 3 NQ 6676.5, 6676.5, 6676.5, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25
Long 2 RTY 1563.3, 1563.3, -1.1, -1.1
Long 2 NQ 6662.75, 6662.75, -2.25, -2.25
Long 3 RTY 1562.3, 1562.3, 1562.5, +3.0, +3.0, +3.6
Long 3 NQ 6660.25, 6660.25, 6662.5, +10.0, +10.0, +12.0
Total ES -1.25
Total NQ +20.25
Total RTY +7.4

That the 2nd trend of the 1st Frame is more likely to be true and the 1st trend false is an observation every floor trader makes early on in his career. Just do the statistics: nearly 80% of all trading day models are of the Test-n-Reject variety, and only 20% or so each month are Persistent Trend. (see the book Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swings for examples. Or as my mentor was fond of saying "if it goes up fast, it seldom lasts". The problem is, how to judge when this first trend is over and ripe to be faded. Even with all the displays of irrational volatility seen in recent days, it was still a surprise to me that the NQ, the RTY and even the YM would eventually make it all the way down to the ETH lows before this ripeness would finally set in. And yet I threw some good money at this first trend too early because I couldn't believe it would actually arrive there. Chart your highs and lows. Know the market came from in both directions in over-night trading. Be prepared to take these levels into consideration as your possible trade entry levels for the frame.

And I can hear the usual refrain from chat room rookies complaining about this action. "They knew where my stops were and they came and got me. The market is rigged." Nonsense. Nobody knows where your stops are. EVERYBODY KNOWS WHERE THE STOPS ARE. All you have to do is look at a chart of all-session highs and lows to know that. Thus the Douglas Corollary: "....most of the money to be made in the markets is made at the places where most traders are being stopped out and proven wrong." For the complete Douglas Premise and its two corollaries, see the book True Self, available on Amazon.com for a few dollars in Kindle format.

Fri Apr 20 Trade Signal Summary

20180420
Short 1 NQ 6742.0, +10.0
Long 1 ES 2086.25, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 6720.0, +10.0
Long 1 RTY 1570.3, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 6720.25, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 6718.25, -1.0
Long 2 RTY 1567.2, 1567.0, +1.2, +3.0
Total ES -0.0
Total NQ +17.0
Total RTY +3.7


Thur Apr 19 Trade Signal Summary

20180419
Long 2 RTY 1582.2, 1582.2, -1.5, -1.5
Long 4 RTY 1581.8, 1581.8, 1581.8, 1581.8, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5
Long 2 YM 24601, 24601, +10, +37
Long 6 RTY 1580.2, 1580.2, 1580.2, 1580.2, 1580.2, 1580.2, +1.4, +1.4, +1.4, +2.0, +2.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 5 RTY 1578.9, 1578.9, 1578.9, 1578.2, 1578.2, +1.0, +1.0, +1.0, +4.0, +4.0
Total YM +47
Total RTY +12.2

Wed Apr 18 Trade Signal Summary

20180418
Short 1 RTY 1588.8, -0.7
Long 2 YM 24750, 24748, +20, +10
Long 1 NQ 6820.5, -2.0
Short 2 RTY 1587.7, 1588.1, -0.0, +1.7
Long 1 YM 24726, -7
Long 1 RTY 1584.9, +2.0
Long 2 YM 24711, +10, -10
Long 1 NQ 8607.25, -3.0
Long 2 RTY 1584.2, 1384.2, 1383.7, +1.0, +1.0, +2.8
Short 2 NQ 6823.75, 68.24.25, -2.0, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 6830.75, -1.0
Short 2 RTY 1590.5, 1590.2, +1.0, -0.3
Short 1 NQ 6841.5, -2.5
Short 2 RTY 1591.3, 1591.3, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 6447.57, 6847.75, -2.25, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 6850.5, 6850.5, +3.0, +7.0
Total YM +23
Total NQ -3.0
Total RTY +7.5

Tues Apr 17 Trade Signal Summary

20180417
Short 2 NQ 6768.5, 6768.5, +5.0, +8.0
Short 2 RTY 1575.4, 1575.4, +0.7, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 6777.0, +5.0
Total NQ +18.0
Total RTY +1.7

Mon Apr 16 Trade Signal Summary

20180416
Long 1 NQ 6657.75, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 6656.0, 6656.0, +5.0, +9.0
Short 1 RTY 1557.6, +2.5
Long 2 RTY 1553.4, 1553.5, +4.0, +1.0
Short 2 RTY 1561.7, 1561.7, +1.0, +2.0
Total NQ +12.0
Total RTY +10.5

Fri Apr 13 Trade Signals and Journal

20180413
Long 4 RTY 1559.2, 1559.3, 15585, 1558.6, +.3, +.2, , -0.7, -0.7
Long 1 NQ 6692.5, -3.0
Long 2 NQ 6685.25, 6683.0, -3.0, -3.0
Long 2 YM 24516, 24509, -12, -12
Long 3 NQ 6677.75, +3.0, +3.0, -3.0
Long 4 RTY 1555.5, 1555.5, 1555.5, 1555.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5
Long 6 RTY 1554.3, 1554.3, 1554.3, 1554.3, 1554.3, 1554.3, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5
Long 2 NQ 6670.0, 6670.0, +7.0, -1.5
Long 2 NQ 6645.25, 6645.25, -2.25, -2.25
Long 6 RTY 1551.1, 1551.1, 1551.1, 1550.4, 1550.4, 1550.4, +2.0, +2.0, +2.0, +3.0, +3.0, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 6660.5, +10.0
Total YM -24
Total NQ +5.0
Total RTY -0.9

The nature of market action and pattern model is most usually revealed in Rule of Alternation. In the 60 minute, All Session bars, a grinding, stutter-step rally was punctuated today in the 1st Frame by a vertical, impulsive collapse. I wasn't prepared for this alternation, if I had been, I'd have been diligently examining the Inflection Levels for break-down short entry opportunities. The market places these break-down levels at precisely the same Sequent Levels that prescribe the reversal opportunities for fading the initial frame's order flow. So unless the Trader is ready to stop-n-reverse his positions at these levels, it's going to be a painful morning fading the trend.

If all first trend fade opportunities fail, as they usually do not, then on such days as this there are the First Chance Texaco pullbacks, that usually offer speeding and impulsive action back WITH the prevailing trend, and a chance not only to recover initial fade losses and get healthy, but also to move into profits for the day's trading business goals. .....unless, like me today, losses are so deep that a goal of break-even might be just daunting enough to take small positions on pullbacks just enough to get even...and call it a day. Today, I missed the First Chance Texaco opportunity to short the RTY in-trend altogether. I blinked. It disappeared into the dust. I was well prepared, however, for the NQ's first chance to fill up the tank at my Texaco station of choice, but hardly got a $5 dollar bill out of the pump and jumped out way early at the first sign I had nearly broke even for the day. ...not an exemplar display of trading skill... Be prepared for the action to alternate. If the action is slip-slide liquidation in the early going, be ready when it alternates into wider swing opportunities. Keep some powder dry for a bounce on which to finally get in trend. Pullback from any notion of revenge trading....that you can finally find the turn on such days is nothing more than luck, and will ill serve your cause when the real opportunities finally present themselves where your losses have hit their daily limits.


...but there's always next week....
And a good weekend to all othewise...

Thurs Apr 12 Trade Signal Summary

20180412
Long 1 RTY 1551.3, +1.8
Short 2 RTY 15535, 1553.9, -1.5, -1.4
Short 5 RTY 1556.1, 1556.1, 1556.1, 1557.1, 1557.2, +0.1, +0.1, +0.1, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 6669.5, 6669.5, -3.0, -3.0
Short 2 YM 24472, 24473, +20, +20
Short 2 RTY 1559.7, 1559.7, +2.0, -0.5
Short 4 RTY 1560.7, 1560.7, 1561.5, 1562.5 1561.5, 1561.5, -0.0, -0.0, +1.5, +1.5, +2.0, +3.8
Short 2 NQ 6684.0, 6484.0, -3.0, -3.0
Short 3 NQ 6688.0, 6688.0, 6688.0, +3.0, +4.0, -3.0
Total YM +40
Total NQ -8.0
Total RTY +13.5

Wed Apr 11 Trade Signal Summary

20180411
Long 1 RTY 1538.2, +4.0
Short 1 RTY 1542.2, -0.0
Long 1 ES 2645.5, +2.0
Long 1 RTY 1543.5, +7.0
Total ES +2.0
Total RTY +11.0

Tues Apr 10 Trade Signal Summary

20180410
Short 1 NQ 6579.75, +12.0
Short 1 RTY 1532.6, +2.0
Long 1 RTY 1530.1, +2.0
Total NQ +12.0
Total RTY +4.0

Mon Apr 9 Trade Signal Summary

20180409
Short 1 RTY 1524.7, -0.8
Short 1 RTY 1521.6, -0.8
Long 2 YM 24019, 24019, +12, +30
Short 1 NQ 6536.5, -2.25
Short 3 RTY 1526.0, 1526.0, 1526.0, +1.0, -0.5, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 6538.75, -2.0
Short 3 NQ 6547.5, 6547.5, 6547.5, +5.0, +5.0, +10.0
Long 1 YM 24060, +40
Total YM +82
Total NQ +15.75
Total RTY -1.6

Fri Mar 6 Trade Signal Summary

20180406
Long 1 NQ 6562.5, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 6561.5, 6561.5, +10.0, +20.0
Long 2 RTY 1540.5, 1540.5, +1.0, +2.0
Total NQ +28.0
Total RTY +3.0

Thurs Apr 5 Trade Signal Summary

20180405
Long 1 RTY 1540.7, +2.0
Long 1 RTY 1535.5, -0.7
Long 2 RTY 1534.9, 1534.9, +1.2, +2.0
Short 1 YM 24445, -7
Short 1 YM 24470, +50
Total YM +43
Total RTY +4.5


Wed Apr 4 Trade Signal Summary

20180404
Short 1 ES 2584.5, +5.0
Short 2 RTY 1501.7, 1501.7, +1.5, +1.4
Short 1 RTY 1503.2, +3.2
Short 1 YM 23668, -12
Short 2 YM 23692, 23692, +20, -0
Total ES +5.0
Total YM +8
Total RTY +6.1

Tues Apr 3 Trade Signal Summary

20180403
Short 2 RTY 1503.2, 1503.2, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 RTY 1506.1, 1506.1, +1.4, +1.4
Long 1 NQ 6416.5, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 6413.0, 6413.0, +3.0, -3.0
Long 2 YM 23700, 23700, +15, -10
Long 1 NQ 6392.5, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 6381.5, 6381.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 3 NQ 6376.5, 6376.5, 6376.5, +10.0, +10.0, -0.0
Long 3 RTY 1498.6, 1498.6, 1498.6, +2.0, +2.0, -0.1
Long 1 NQ 6367.0, -2.5
Long 3 RTY 1496.7, 1496.7, 1497.0, +2.0, +2.0, -0.0
Long 2 YM 23637, 23637, -12, -12
Long 2 RTY 1495.2, 1495.0, +5.0, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 6387.75, -2.0
Short 1 RTY 1503.1, -0.3
Short 2 NQ 6451.0, 6451.0, +2.0, -2.0,
Short 3 RTY 1509.2, 1509.2, 1509.2, +1.0, -0.4, -0.4
Short 2 RTY 1510.3, 1510.3, +2.0, +3.0
Total YM -19
Total NQ +7.5
Total RTY +19.1




Mon Apr 2 Trade Signals & Journal

20180402
Long 2 NQ 6542.0, 65642.0, -2.25, -2.25
Long 2 RTY 1527.4, 1527.4, -1.4, -1.4
Long 3 NQ 1525.7, 1524.7, 1524.7, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25
Long 1 NQ 6512.75, -2.25
Long 2 NQ 6504.25, 6504.25, -2.25, -2.25
Long 3 NQ 6499.0, 6499.0, 6499.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0
Long 3 RTY 1521.6, 1521.6, 1521.6, -0.8, -0.8, -0.8
Total NQ -21.5
Total RTY -5.2

Always try to curtail trading when losses reach about the same value as any single trading day profit goal. First Frame action without identifiable swing signals are the rarer of the day model profile. Swing day opportunities will return... when the market is ready to deliver them...

Good Friday Mar 30 Mkt's closed

A Joyful Easter weekend to all...