20130522
Long 1 NQ 3027.25, +3.0
Short 2 NQ 3032.75, 3033.0, -1.0, -1.5
Short 3 NQ 3035.0, 3035.0, 3035.75, -1.0, -1.75, -1.75
Short 1 NQ 3035.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1003.1, +1.0, 1003.3, -0.5, -1.0
Long 1 TF 994.1, +1.0
Short 1 TF 984.7, -0.4
Short 1 TF 985.4, +3.0
Total NQ -4.5
Total +2.1
Early long in NQ was not held into the big rally. Not because I should have foreseen it, but because I only had a 1-lot, and took a mechanical exit with a 1-lot profit. The fault, therefore, was not having better size to manage.
Early shorts were stp'd out but the fault was in repeating them as velocity increased. Successful shorts would have captured the Highs at the second fractal level, but was starting a webinar for Ninjatrader and was not viewing the action. The sell signals were, however, pretty clear at the highs, and several students messaged me later how successful they were when the market collapsed after the Noon Hour High. The last frame of the day tends to be resolution to the midday consolidation. And today's last trend down was no exception. I got in sync with that by shorting a bounce for a nice piece of the ride back down to new lows, although I was stopped out of it initially when it exceeded my entry level, forcing me to re enter. I suffer from a temptation to use the same trade model strategies in the last frame as I do in the first. Today, I waited more patiently and got in sync with the developing down trend. A Trade Plan cannot just assume that the 1st frame strategies can be used in the last frame of the day. This is where traders make mistakes.
Tues May 21 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130521
Short 2 YM 15366, 15364, -10, -6
Long 3 TF 995.5, 995.5, 995.8, +0.5, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 995.5, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 3014.5, -1.5
Long 2 YM 15306, +7, +14
Long 1 TF 993.4, +1.0
Short 1 TF 995.9, -0.1
Short 1 NQ 3023.25, +4.0
Short 1 NQ 3023.50, -1.0
Total YM +5
Total NQ +1.5
Total TF +2.4
Technical analysis exists to identify probabilities, not perfections. Today in the chat room, I called 3 contracts short near the highs. I got stp'd out of the YM short, and never filled either the NQ nor TF short entry levels. And then it collapsed. But a counter-trend trade and finally a bottom signal allowed me to at least make a profit. Be prepared to flip your rally hat around the signals come. The trader's job is to avoid the infliction of trend prejudice and trade what appears at the right side of his video screen. Stay with the plan, not your opinions.
20130521
Short 2 YM 15366, 15364, -10, -6
Long 3 TF 995.5, 995.5, 995.8, +0.5, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 995.5, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 3014.5, -1.5
Long 2 YM 15306, +7, +14
Long 1 TF 993.4, +1.0
Short 1 TF 995.9, -0.1
Short 1 NQ 3023.25, +4.0
Short 1 NQ 3023.50, -1.0
Total YM +5
Total NQ +1.5
Total TF +2.4
Technical analysis exists to identify probabilities, not perfections. Today in the chat room, I called 3 contracts short near the highs. I got stp'd out of the YM short, and never filled either the NQ nor TF short entry levels. And then it collapsed. But a counter-trend trade and finally a bottom signal allowed me to at least make a profit. Be prepared to flip your rally hat around the signals come. The trader's job is to avoid the infliction of trend prejudice and trade what appears at the right side of his video screen. Stay with the plan, not your opinions.
Mon May 20 Trades & Journal
20130520
Long 1 TF 993.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 993.4, -0.5
Long 2 ES 1662.75, 1662.75, +1.0, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 2625.25, -0.25
Short 1 YM 15322, -3
Short 2 TF 995.9, 996.0, -0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 996.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 994.6, -0.1
Short 1 TF 994.2, -0.4
Long 1 NQ 3026.0, -1.0
Short 2 YM 15348, 15348, -3, -3
Short 2 TF 999.0, 999.1, -0.5, -0.2
Total ES +3.0
Total YM -9
Total NQ -1.25
Total TF +0.8
Treaded water with failed short signals while monitoring TF's approach to the decennial 1000 number. ...and then the local cable internet crashed from here in the midwest... probably storm related... You have to be prepared for all contingencies while trading futures. That's why you should also place orders with automatic OCO orders. That way, stp's and targets are placed with the broker as the entry order fills. Should you crash at your desktop, the trade at least has that much protection.... assuming the broker doesn't crash too.... Trading involves risk. Be prepared for it.
Long 1 TF 993.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 993.4, -0.5
Long 2 ES 1662.75, 1662.75, +1.0, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 2625.25, -0.25
Short 1 YM 15322, -3
Short 2 TF 995.9, 996.0, -0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 996.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 994.6, -0.1
Short 1 TF 994.2, -0.4
Long 1 NQ 3026.0, -1.0
Short 2 YM 15348, 15348, -3, -3
Short 2 TF 999.0, 999.1, -0.5, -0.2
Total ES +3.0
Total YM -9
Total NQ -1.25
Total TF +0.8
Treaded water with failed short signals while monitoring TF's approach to the decennial 1000 number. ...and then the local cable internet crashed from here in the midwest... probably storm related... You have to be prepared for all contingencies while trading futures. That's why you should also place orders with automatic OCO orders. That way, stp's and targets are placed with the broker as the entry order fills. Should you crash at your desktop, the trade at least has that much protection.... assuming the broker doesn't crash too.... Trading involves risk. Be prepared for it.
Fri May 17 Trades
20130517
Long 1 NQ 3007.25, -2.0
Long 2 YM 15233, 15233, +7, +10
Long 2 TF 987.4, 987.3, +0.5, +0.8
Short 1 TF 990.4, +1.0
Short 1 YM 15265 -2
Long 1 TF 991.2, -0.5
Short 2 TF 992.4, 992.3, +0.2, +0.5
Short 2 YM 15277, 15279, +10, +7
Long 1 TF 992.9, -0.0
Long 1 YM 15253, -0
Long 2 TF 990.5, 990.7, -0.5, +0.5
Short 1 TF 990.7, -0.5
Total NQ -2.0
Total YM +32
Total TF +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3007.25, -2.0
Long 2 YM 15233, 15233, +7, +10
Long 2 TF 987.4, 987.3, +0.5, +0.8
Short 1 TF 990.4, +1.0
Short 1 YM 15265 -2
Long 1 TF 991.2, -0.5
Short 2 TF 992.4, 992.3, +0.2, +0.5
Short 2 YM 15277, 15279, +10, +7
Long 1 TF 992.9, -0.0
Long 1 YM 15253, -0
Long 2 TF 990.5, 990.7, -0.5, +0.5
Short 1 TF 990.7, -0.5
Total NQ -2.0
Total YM +32
Total TF +2.0
Thurs May 16 Trades & Journal
Total 2013 Trade Summary
20130516
Long 1 NQ 3005.25, +4.0
Short 1 NQ 3011.75, +2.0
Short 2 ES 1657.5, 1657.0, +1.0, +2.25
Long 1 TF 982.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 982.4, +1.4
Short 1 TF 985.8, +1.0
Total ES +3.25
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +2.0
Trading the 1st frame (9:30 to 11:15am ET) on a day like today requires pretty precise entries. Signals come quickly, and the best trades come from a plan that incorporates reversal signals. Keep your attitude neutral as to trend and trade from both sides while the market tries to sort itself out. A trend may eventually appear on such days as the 1st frame is coming to an end, but the volatility usually dissipates by then too, and you're back to a more grinder like condition. The waters seem calmer and attract less experienced traders who feel they need time to sort out their tape reading and intuition. This usually demonstrates that they do not come to the market with a trade plan. If they had one, the volatility would be attractive to them. They trade based on which way they think the market is trying to go. "...most of the money that is lost in the markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which way the market was supposed to go..." ---The Douglas Premise. Read about this and the accompanying Valhalla Corollaries in the free ebook from ValhallaFutures called Self Recognition. To trade, you must know yourself. But to learn yourself, you must monitor your reactions against the execution of a trade plan. Without this, all you are doing is trying to take the temperature of your daily intuition and tape reading skills. Don't tape read. Trade with a plan. A plan will set you free of stress and exhaustion. Either the unfolding market condition is in your plan, and you trade, or it is not, and you wait. Stay relaxed. Stay focused. Stick with your Trade Plan. Let the trade plan take you to consistent profits.
20130516
Long 1 NQ 3005.25, +4.0
Short 1 NQ 3011.75, +2.0
Short 2 ES 1657.5, 1657.0, +1.0, +2.25
Long 1 TF 982.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 982.4, +1.4
Short 1 TF 985.8, +1.0
Total ES +3.25
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +2.0
Trading the 1st frame (9:30 to 11:15am ET) on a day like today requires pretty precise entries. Signals come quickly, and the best trades come from a plan that incorporates reversal signals. Keep your attitude neutral as to trend and trade from both sides while the market tries to sort itself out. A trend may eventually appear on such days as the 1st frame is coming to an end, but the volatility usually dissipates by then too, and you're back to a more grinder like condition. The waters seem calmer and attract less experienced traders who feel they need time to sort out their tape reading and intuition. This usually demonstrates that they do not come to the market with a trade plan. If they had one, the volatility would be attractive to them. They trade based on which way they think the market is trying to go. "...most of the money that is lost in the markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which way the market was supposed to go..." ---The Douglas Premise. Read about this and the accompanying Valhalla Corollaries in the free ebook from ValhallaFutures called Self Recognition. To trade, you must know yourself. But to learn yourself, you must monitor your reactions against the execution of a trade plan. Without this, all you are doing is trying to take the temperature of your daily intuition and tape reading skills. Don't tape read. Trade with a plan. A plan will set you free of stress and exhaustion. Either the unfolding market condition is in your plan, and you trade, or it is not, and you wait. Stay relaxed. Stay focused. Stick with your Trade Plan. Let the trade plan take you to consistent profits.
Wed May 15 Trades
20130515
Long 1 TF 982.3, -0.2
Short 1 TF 980.0, -0.3
Long 2 NQ 2993.25, 2992.75, -1.5, -1.0
Long 2 YM 15160, 15160, +7, +10
Short 1 TF 984.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 985.0, 984.9, +0.4, +1.6
Short 1 YM 15187, +10
Short 1 YM 15191, +10
Short 1 TF 985.4, -0.0
Short 1 TF 987.2, -0.2
Total YM +37
Total NQ -2.5
Total TF +0.8
Long 1 TF 982.3, -0.2
Short 1 TF 980.0, -0.3
Long 2 NQ 2993.25, 2992.75, -1.5, -1.0
Long 2 YM 15160, 15160, +7, +10
Short 1 TF 984.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 985.0, 984.9, +0.4, +1.6
Short 1 YM 15187, +10
Short 1 YM 15191, +10
Short 1 TF 985.4, -0.0
Short 1 TF 987.2, -0.2
Total YM +37
Total NQ -2.5
Total TF +0.8
Tues May 14 Trades & Journal
20130514
Short 2 NQ 2987.0, 2986.25, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 2987.5, 2987.75, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 YM 15093, 15093, -2, -9
Short 2 TF 978.0, 977.9, +0.4, -0.6
Short 2 YM 15101, 15101, +7, -7
Short 1 NQ 2992.75, -.75
Short 2 TF 979.4, 979.9, -1.2, -0.5
Short 2 TF 982.0, 982.0, -0.2, -0.5
Total NQ -0.75
Total YM -11
Total TF -2.6
There is no predicting the market. And grinding bull rallies like today have appeared without apparent climax signals for many many months. Just note the NYSE tick chart. Not since mid April have we even seen a +1000 tick reading. ...and still the bull climbs on. As short term traders, we care little that many daily frame technical sell signals have yielded naught for in the larger frame. Our playground is the lowest time frames, as our focus is just the 1st session of the day, from the open to around 11:15am ET, and we don't hold positions overnight. In this time frame, compare the charts of Friday to today. They couldn't be more different. Friday's swings provided great reversal signals for short term intraday swings, the fodder of intraday, short term trading. Today was a persistent grind through the whole 1st frame, characterized by only the shallowest of pullbacks, and often the choppiest of breakouts. What to do if no initial trend-following signals appeared at the open? Acknowledge that not every day is the same, nor offers the same trading opportunities. Keep your losses on such days small. Avoid 'revenge trading' that stirs the anger and angst over having missed a move. Try not to give back all the profits from the previous day's successful swings. Tomorrow is another day. It's the end of the week and the end of the month that really counts. And if you dig yourself into a hole on any difficult day trying to stay even or get even, you're more likely to give back the gains of previous days before making a difficult day work. Stay disciplined.
Our trade plan allows for several setups that provide an early signal on Persistent Trend Days. The plan also provides for entries in the PM session on this day model when a deeper correction can finally appear. Stay withing your trade plan. Stay patient. Stick with the plan, not what you think the market 'must finally do'. ...and good trading to all.....
Short 2 NQ 2987.0, 2986.25, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 2987.5, 2987.75, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 YM 15093, 15093, -2, -9
Short 2 TF 978.0, 977.9, +0.4, -0.6
Short 2 YM 15101, 15101, +7, -7
Short 1 NQ 2992.75, -.75
Short 2 TF 979.4, 979.9, -1.2, -0.5
Short 2 TF 982.0, 982.0, -0.2, -0.5
Total NQ -0.75
Total YM -11
Total TF -2.6
There is no predicting the market. And grinding bull rallies like today have appeared without apparent climax signals for many many months. Just note the NYSE tick chart. Not since mid April have we even seen a +1000 tick reading. ...and still the bull climbs on. As short term traders, we care little that many daily frame technical sell signals have yielded naught for in the larger frame. Our playground is the lowest time frames, as our focus is just the 1st session of the day, from the open to around 11:15am ET, and we don't hold positions overnight. In this time frame, compare the charts of Friday to today. They couldn't be more different. Friday's swings provided great reversal signals for short term intraday swings, the fodder of intraday, short term trading. Today was a persistent grind through the whole 1st frame, characterized by only the shallowest of pullbacks, and often the choppiest of breakouts. What to do if no initial trend-following signals appeared at the open? Acknowledge that not every day is the same, nor offers the same trading opportunities. Keep your losses on such days small. Avoid 'revenge trading' that stirs the anger and angst over having missed a move. Try not to give back all the profits from the previous day's successful swings. Tomorrow is another day. It's the end of the week and the end of the month that really counts. And if you dig yourself into a hole on any difficult day trying to stay even or get even, you're more likely to give back the gains of previous days before making a difficult day work. Stay disciplined.
Our trade plan allows for several setups that provide an early signal on Persistent Trend Days. The plan also provides for entries in the PM session on this day model when a deeper correction can finally appear. Stay withing your trade plan. Stay patient. Stick with the plan, not what you think the market 'must finally do'. ...and good trading to all.....
Mon May 13 Trades & Journal
20130513
Short 2 NQ 2926.25, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 971.6, +1.4
Long 1 TF 969.3, -0.4
Long 1 YM 15028, -2
Long 1 TF 969.0, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 2971.0, 2970.5, +2.0, -1.0
Short 1 NQ 6971.25, -1.5
Short 1 TF 973.0, +2.0
Short 2 YM 15056 15055, +7, +8
Long 2 TF 969.6, 968.8, -0. +2.0
Total NQ +4.5
Total YM +13
Total TF +4.5
Volatility can be your friend if you have method of identifying the potential reversals. If not, none of it will make any sense. And even with a methodology, you must be one step ahead of the signals so that you can take them quickly then they actually arrive. We call this having a trade plan. When it appears at the right edge of your video screen, you take the trade. No thinking allowed. You dont' have time to wander about the array of technical indicator information to assess things. It's either a trade, or it's not. If your methods identify successful entries significantly more often than they fail, you have a working trade plan for consistent profits. Come join us at ValhallaFutures and consider Serial Sequent Method as the basis for your trade plan.
Short 2 NQ 2926.25, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 971.6, +1.4
Long 1 TF 969.3, -0.4
Long 1 YM 15028, -2
Long 1 TF 969.0, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 2971.0, 2970.5, +2.0, -1.0
Short 1 NQ 6971.25, -1.5
Short 1 TF 973.0, +2.0
Short 2 YM 15056 15055, +7, +8
Long 2 TF 969.6, 968.8, -0. +2.0
Total NQ +4.5
Total YM +13
Total TF +4.5
Volatility can be your friend if you have method of identifying the potential reversals. If not, none of it will make any sense. And even with a methodology, you must be one step ahead of the signals so that you can take them quickly then they actually arrive. We call this having a trade plan. When it appears at the right edge of your video screen, you take the trade. No thinking allowed. You dont' have time to wander about the array of technical indicator information to assess things. It's either a trade, or it's not. If your methods identify successful entries significantly more often than they fail, you have a working trade plan for consistent profits. Come join us at ValhallaFutures and consider Serial Sequent Method as the basis for your trade plan.
Fri May 10 Trades and Journal
20130510
Long 2 YM 15038, 15034, +1, -3
Long 1 TF 15033, -5
Long 2 YM 15026, +10, +20
Short 1 ES 1628.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 969.8, +0.7
Long 2 TF 969.1, 969.1, -0.2, -0.4
Long 1 TF 968.1, -0.7
Long 3 NQ 2861.75, 2860.75, 2860.75, +2.0, +2.0, +3.0
Short 2 TF 968.5, 958.4, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15051, 15051, +7, +8
Total YM +43
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF -1.1
It's always the fish that get away you remember the most... Today's midmorning collapse came with beatiful sell signals, first at the highs in the NQ and TF. I was working higher entry targets for both and failed to get on board. Fair enough. But on the way down, I failed to take the shorts at breakdown inflection levels because I was drawn into the relative strength of the TF against the far weaker YM. YM is seldom a good leader. But that doesn't mean it can't lead. And it also doesn't mean TF action appearances will be enough to keep it from breaking at inflection triggers. I had doubts. I let those doubts interfere with my trade plan. I missed the most important trades of the session because of those doubts. The question is, how to improve...? How to really change one's behavior...? Relive those moments that kept you blocked and away from the trades your trade plan called for. What were you thinking at those critical moments....? What were you feeling....? The point is not to try to eradicate those feelings. The very same ones will reappear next time. In fact, count on it. Use it. When that particular combination reveals itself again, use it as a signal to enter your trades. Teach yourself a new reaction to those feelings. You can't change those emotions. Don't expect to. But you can change your response. This is the stuff of self discipline.
Long 2 YM 15038, 15034, +1, -3
Long 1 TF 15033, -5
Long 2 YM 15026, +10, +20
Short 1 ES 1628.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 969.8, +0.7
Long 2 TF 969.1, 969.1, -0.2, -0.4
Long 1 TF 968.1, -0.7
Long 3 NQ 2861.75, 2860.75, 2860.75, +2.0, +2.0, +3.0
Short 2 TF 968.5, 958.4, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15051, 15051, +7, +8
Total YM +43
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF -1.1
It's always the fish that get away you remember the most... Today's midmorning collapse came with beatiful sell signals, first at the highs in the NQ and TF. I was working higher entry targets for both and failed to get on board. Fair enough. But on the way down, I failed to take the shorts at breakdown inflection levels because I was drawn into the relative strength of the TF against the far weaker YM. YM is seldom a good leader. But that doesn't mean it can't lead. And it also doesn't mean TF action appearances will be enough to keep it from breaking at inflection triggers. I had doubts. I let those doubts interfere with my trade plan. I missed the most important trades of the session because of those doubts. The question is, how to improve...? How to really change one's behavior...? Relive those moments that kept you blocked and away from the trades your trade plan called for. What were you thinking at those critical moments....? What were you feeling....? The point is not to try to eradicate those feelings. The very same ones will reappear next time. In fact, count on it. Use it. When that particular combination reveals itself again, use it as a signal to enter your trades. Teach yourself a new reaction to those feelings. You can't change those emotions. Don't expect to. But you can change your response. This is the stuff of self discipline.
Thur May 9 Trades & Journal
20130509
Long 1 YM 15066, +10
Short 1 NQ 2965.25, +3.0
Long 2 TF 966.8, 966.2, -0, +1.0
Long 2 YM 15066, 15064, -6, -4
Long 1 TF 964.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 964.5, -0.4
Short 1 TF 963.4, -0.1
Long 1 NQ 2955.0, +1.25
Total YM -0
Total NQ +4.25
Total TF +1.0
Today demonstrates how important the mental attitude is....even when your breakdown signals are as accurate as Serial Sequent. Today, the slow grinding collapse in the TF came against a steeply dropping TRIN. In fact, it nearly hit .60. That usually means buying is already dominant, and a turn is on the way. But the structure signaled 2 distinct breakdown triggers. For about 1 minute, I was in one with a short at 963.4. It had a 2 pt target to the next support and would have come just shy of that before turning. But I lacked the faith. I faced trading today on a shortage of sleep and a difficult wake-up against the rain and the humid air. Franky, I was half asleep and maybe should be grateful for the profits I did make. But this demonstrates how important it is to be fresh and mentally strong. Trading requires faith in your methods, and the trade plan will produce the best trade signals right at the places most difficult to trade them. That's how the market works. Don't expect anything less. "If it was easy, everybody 'd be rich and nobody 'd be poor."... as my mentor Randolph Newman use to say.... Stay disciplined.
Long 1 YM 15066, +10
Short 1 NQ 2965.25, +3.0
Long 2 TF 966.8, 966.2, -0, +1.0
Long 2 YM 15066, 15064, -6, -4
Long 1 TF 964.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 964.5, -0.4
Short 1 TF 963.4, -0.1
Long 1 NQ 2955.0, +1.25
Total YM -0
Total NQ +4.25
Total TF +1.0
Today demonstrates how important the mental attitude is....even when your breakdown signals are as accurate as Serial Sequent. Today, the slow grinding collapse in the TF came against a steeply dropping TRIN. In fact, it nearly hit .60. That usually means buying is already dominant, and a turn is on the way. But the structure signaled 2 distinct breakdown triggers. For about 1 minute, I was in one with a short at 963.4. It had a 2 pt target to the next support and would have come just shy of that before turning. But I lacked the faith. I faced trading today on a shortage of sleep and a difficult wake-up against the rain and the humid air. Franky, I was half asleep and maybe should be grateful for the profits I did make. But this demonstrates how important it is to be fresh and mentally strong. Trading requires faith in your methods, and the trade plan will produce the best trade signals right at the places most difficult to trade them. That's how the market works. Don't expect anything less. "If it was easy, everybody 'd be rich and nobody 'd be poor."... as my mentor Randolph Newman use to say.... Stay disciplined.
Wed May 8 Trades & Journal
20130508
Short 2 TF 964.8, 964.7, -0.4, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 2945.5, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 2948.0, 2947.75, -1.0, -1.25
Short 2 NQ 2949.5, 2949.25, -1.5, -1.75
Short 3 YM 15002, 15002, +7, -0, -8
Short 3 TF 965.9, 965.7, 965.7, +0.5, +0.5, +1.9
Long 1 TF 963.8, -0.2
Short 2 YM 15013, 15013, -3, -5
Short 2 YM 15013, 15011, -3, -5
Short 1 TF 967.4, -0.3
Total YM -17
Total NQ -7.75
Total TF +1.5
On some days, the action is better for trading than others. Just don't dig yourself in a hole for the week trying to make a bull grinder work. Stay within your plan. Tomorrow is another day.
Short 2 TF 964.8, 964.7, -0.4, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 2945.5, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 2948.0, 2947.75, -1.0, -1.25
Short 2 NQ 2949.5, 2949.25, -1.5, -1.75
Short 3 YM 15002, 15002, +7, -0, -8
Short 3 TF 965.9, 965.7, 965.7, +0.5, +0.5, +1.9
Long 1 TF 963.8, -0.2
Short 2 YM 15013, 15013, -3, -5
Short 2 YM 15013, 15011, -3, -5
Short 1 TF 967.4, -0.3
Total YM -17
Total NQ -7.75
Total TF +1.5
On some days, the action is better for trading than others. Just don't dig yourself in a hole for the week trying to make a bull grinder work. Stay within your plan. Tomorrow is another day.
Tues May 7 Trades
20130507
Short 2 NQ 2954.5, 2954.0, -1.0, -1.5
Short 2 TF 963.3, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 958.6, 958.6, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 YM 14914, 14915, +7, +14
Short 2 TF 959.3, 959.5, +0.7, +0.5
Short 2 YM 14942, 14942, -5, -5
Short 1 NQ 2946.75, +4.0
Short 2 TF 961.2, 961.2, +0.5, +2.0
Total YM +11
Total NQ +1.5
Total TF +3.7
Short 2 NQ 2954.5, 2954.0, -1.0, -1.5
Short 2 TF 963.3, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 958.6, 958.6, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 YM 14914, 14915, +7, +14
Short 2 TF 959.3, 959.5, +0.7, +0.5
Short 2 YM 14942, 14942, -5, -5
Short 1 NQ 2946.75, +4.0
Short 2 TF 961.2, 961.2, +0.5, +2.0
Total YM +11
Total NQ +1.5
Total TF +3.7
Mon May 6 Trades
20130506
Long 2 YM 14889, 14890, +2, -6
Long 2 NQ 2944.25, 2943.75, +2, +3.0
Short 1 TF 954.7, -0.6
Short 4 TF 956.0, 956.5, 956.4, 956.6, -0, +0.5, +0.5, -0.3
Short 2 YM 14911, 14910, +7, -2
Short 1 YM 14916, +12
Short 1 NQ 2950.0, +3.0
Total YM +13
Total NQ +8.0
Total TF +0.1
Long 2 YM 14889, 14890, +2, -6
Long 2 NQ 2944.25, 2943.75, +2, +3.0
Short 1 TF 954.7, -0.6
Short 4 TF 956.0, 956.5, 956.4, 956.6, -0, +0.5, +0.5, -0.3
Short 2 YM 14911, 14910, +7, -2
Short 1 YM 14916, +12
Short 1 NQ 2950.0, +3.0
Total YM +13
Total NQ +8.0
Total TF +0.1
Fri May 3 Trades & Journal
20130503
Short 2 TF 955.7, 955.6, +2.0, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 2843.25, +5.0
Short 1 YM 14939, -7
Short 1 TF 958.4, +1.2
Total YM -7
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +3.7
They say the news drives the markets... and it's certainly hard to deny on a day like today. But we're traders. And any serious perusal of chaos structure reveals patterns that reappear continually as price fleshes things out. Today's first sell signal in the TF for instance, came at a Measured Move target of 955.8 that has been standing since the middle of December 2012. With the premium in profits and a 2nd contract exit that turn afforded us, we held the 2nd unit into the 10am news not having a clue as to what an "ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI" or "Factory Orders m/m" number would mean to the market. If the number was weak, but not unexpected, is it really bullish...? Who knows. Who cares... they'll be talking about it all morning at the business show news desks and never figure it out. Do you really think they discuss it all on the floor of the S&P pit before deciding what to do ..? Whatdayakiddinme? We entered on a sell signal before the news. The news perhaps helped feed the outcome of the selling. We exited ON the news. The second TF sell signal fulfilled the Sequent Wave Structure and helped make us a daily profit goal before the end of the 1st Frame of the day (9:30 to 11:15am). Come join us at ValhallaFutures and learn how to dissect the underlying structure of the markets and use the news in your trading plan. ...a good weekend and good trading to all...
Short 2 TF 955.7, 955.6, +2.0, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 2843.25, +5.0
Short 1 YM 14939, -7
Short 1 TF 958.4, +1.2
Total YM -7
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +3.7
They say the news drives the markets... and it's certainly hard to deny on a day like today. But we're traders. And any serious perusal of chaos structure reveals patterns that reappear continually as price fleshes things out. Today's first sell signal in the TF for instance, came at a Measured Move target of 955.8 that has been standing since the middle of December 2012. With the premium in profits and a 2nd contract exit that turn afforded us, we held the 2nd unit into the 10am news not having a clue as to what an "ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI" or "Factory Orders m/m" number would mean to the market. If the number was weak, but not unexpected, is it really bullish...? Who knows. Who cares... they'll be talking about it all morning at the business show news desks and never figure it out. Do you really think they discuss it all on the floor of the S&P pit before deciding what to do ..? Whatdayakiddinme? We entered on a sell signal before the news. The news perhaps helped feed the outcome of the selling. We exited ON the news. The second TF sell signal fulfilled the Sequent Wave Structure and helped make us a daily profit goal before the end of the 1st Frame of the day (9:30 to 11:15am). Come join us at ValhallaFutures and learn how to dissect the underlying structure of the markets and use the news in your trading plan. ...a good weekend and good trading to all...
Thur May 2 Trades & Journal
20130502
Short 1 NQ 2888.5, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 2887.75, 2887.25, +2.0, +5.0
Long 1 YM 14709, -0
Short 1 TF 931.7, -0.2
Short 4 TF 932.6, 932.5, 932.6, 932.5, -0.5, +0.5, -0.3, -0.2
Short 2 YM 14738, 14738, -3, -3
Total YM -6
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF -0.7
The Persistent Trend Day model as an interesting attribute. It seldom repeats itself two days in a row in the same direction, but often repeats itself two days in a row in the OPPOSITE direction. Thus today's bull breakouts by the wily TF paralleled bear action in yesterday's steep decline. Although the NQ short entry fades taken in the early going were well within the scope of the trade plan, so were the bull breakouts. I took the YM for this initial breakout, ducking the call to take the more volatile TF, and bought a dud in the process. I stopped out the YM at breakeven while the TF exploded onto huge gains. There is an important lesson and trade plan rule to learned here (not that I haven't berated myself for failing at it many times before...). Use the more volatile leadership instruments for initial breakouts. Don't shy away from it. Get out on the edge of the board and hang ten over the surf. Avoiding the appraised pain of playing breakouts won't be ameliorated by using the laggard. It more likely will only ensure your failure. Play the leadership. The laggards will more likely provide pullback entry opportunities once the leadership is a bit spent. Learn market behavior attributes. Make them a part of your trade filters. Put those trade filters in your trade plan. Trade your plan.
Short 1 NQ 2888.5, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 2887.75, 2887.25, +2.0, +5.0
Long 1 YM 14709, -0
Short 1 TF 931.7, -0.2
Short 4 TF 932.6, 932.5, 932.6, 932.5, -0.5, +0.5, -0.3, -0.2
Short 2 YM 14738, 14738, -3, -3
Total YM -6
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF -0.7
The Persistent Trend Day model as an interesting attribute. It seldom repeats itself two days in a row in the same direction, but often repeats itself two days in a row in the OPPOSITE direction. Thus today's bull breakouts by the wily TF paralleled bear action in yesterday's steep decline. Although the NQ short entry fades taken in the early going were well within the scope of the trade plan, so were the bull breakouts. I took the YM for this initial breakout, ducking the call to take the more volatile TF, and bought a dud in the process. I stopped out the YM at breakeven while the TF exploded onto huge gains. There is an important lesson and trade plan rule to learned here (not that I haven't berated myself for failing at it many times before...). Use the more volatile leadership instruments for initial breakouts. Don't shy away from it. Get out on the edge of the board and hang ten over the surf. Avoiding the appraised pain of playing breakouts won't be ameliorated by using the laggard. It more likely will only ensure your failure. Play the leadership. The laggards will more likely provide pullback entry opportunities once the leadership is a bit spent. Learn market behavior attributes. Make them a part of your trade filters. Put those trade filters in your trade plan. Trade your plan.
Wed May 1 Trades & Journal
20130501
Short 2 NQ 2880.75, +2, -1.25
Long 3 TF 937.3, 937.5, 937.3, -0.5, +0.5, +0.5
Long 3 TF 936.5, 936..5, 936.1, -1.4, -0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 935.2, 935.2, +0.5, -0.0
Long 2 NQ 2874.25, 2874.25, +2.0, -2.5
Long 1 TF 931.0, +1.0
Long 1 NQ 2869.25, +3.0
Long 1 TF 929.7, +1.3
Long 1 TF 930.6, -0.7
Long 2 TF 930.3, 930.1, +2.0, +0.5
2nd Frame PM Trades:
Short 1 TF 928.8, -0.4
Short 1 TF 928.6, +2.0
Total NQ +3.25
Total TF +4.1
Trading around the news can be challenging. Today, we did it twice, once pre-10am before the econ report number released and then again around the FOMC. Beginners always question whether this is a prediction of the news outcome. And if not, how come it so often goes our way. That is, we position before the news and exit into it. Firstly, bracketing the news in order to try to capitalize on the outcome post-release is strictly an amateur play. And yet, I have seen so many teach this supposed risk-less trick in countless seminars. Apparently, none of these so called instructors have actually taken any of those news bracket entries in their own accounts. If so, they'd know that far too often the fills for such trades are at extremes, and only lead to quick or immediate stp-outs. How then, does not position for the news BEFORE it comes out...? The answer... by not positioning for the news at all. We position based on the technicals pre-news, using Serial Sequent Wave Method. If the market has already turned based on those methods and we have at least gotten enough profit to exit partials pre-news release time, then we can risk riding through the news with a resting net break-even stp-loss order. And far more often than not, the reversal seems to have 'predicted' the outcome of the market, and we exit the remainder on further celebration. Once the news settles down, we can then look for potential reversals in the opposite direction, if any. This is how we seem to be 'playing' the news, but in reality, are only using the extra volatility the news affords to our advantage. The mistake most traders make, apparently suffering from the same miseducation of the talking heads on such programs as Bloomberg and CNBC, is the underlying assumption that the news dictates the trend. If this were true, then bottoms would never come on bad news and tops never come on the good. But haven't you, the lone individual, the meanest of market subjects, noticed even without an ivy-league degree or an ivory tower pedigree that such is, in fact, precisely the case....? That bottom bull reversals accompany bad news and tops often set up with the good....? Then why, with such simple but repeatedly clarified observations should you leap to the opposite conclusion that the news drives the markets..... Is it that you feel so compelled to be in the company of television news anchor fools that wouldn't know a stp-loss from an MIT order? Think for yourself. You don't need an impressive credential or financial degree to trade the markets. In fact, your chances of success may just be better without one. Find a plan that is constructed around working models that occur repeatedly in the market place with some regularity. When they appear at the right edge of your video screen, take the trade. With a few filters and some trade management rules, this is your trade plan. Trade the plan. Become disciplined. The 'degree' to which you stay focused on your plan is the only credential necessary for success in trading. We don't predict. We only position. For more insights into market psychology, email will@valhallafutures.com and ask for the free ebook "Self Recognition".
Short 2 NQ 2880.75, +2, -1.25
Long 3 TF 937.3, 937.5, 937.3, -0.5, +0.5, +0.5
Long 3 TF 936.5, 936..5, 936.1, -1.4, -0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 935.2, 935.2, +0.5, -0.0
Long 2 NQ 2874.25, 2874.25, +2.0, -2.5
Long 1 TF 931.0, +1.0
Long 1 NQ 2869.25, +3.0
Long 1 TF 929.7, +1.3
Long 1 TF 930.6, -0.7
Long 2 TF 930.3, 930.1, +2.0, +0.5
2nd Frame PM Trades:
Short 1 TF 928.8, -0.4
Short 1 TF 928.6, +2.0
Total NQ +3.25
Total TF +4.1
Trading around the news can be challenging. Today, we did it twice, once pre-10am before the econ report number released and then again around the FOMC. Beginners always question whether this is a prediction of the news outcome. And if not, how come it so often goes our way. That is, we position before the news and exit into it. Firstly, bracketing the news in order to try to capitalize on the outcome post-release is strictly an amateur play. And yet, I have seen so many teach this supposed risk-less trick in countless seminars. Apparently, none of these so called instructors have actually taken any of those news bracket entries in their own accounts. If so, they'd know that far too often the fills for such trades are at extremes, and only lead to quick or immediate stp-outs. How then, does not position for the news BEFORE it comes out...? The answer... by not positioning for the news at all. We position based on the technicals pre-news, using Serial Sequent Wave Method. If the market has already turned based on those methods and we have at least gotten enough profit to exit partials pre-news release time, then we can risk riding through the news with a resting net break-even stp-loss order. And far more often than not, the reversal seems to have 'predicted' the outcome of the market, and we exit the remainder on further celebration. Once the news settles down, we can then look for potential reversals in the opposite direction, if any. This is how we seem to be 'playing' the news, but in reality, are only using the extra volatility the news affords to our advantage. The mistake most traders make, apparently suffering from the same miseducation of the talking heads on such programs as Bloomberg and CNBC, is the underlying assumption that the news dictates the trend. If this were true, then bottoms would never come on bad news and tops never come on the good. But haven't you, the lone individual, the meanest of market subjects, noticed even without an ivy-league degree or an ivory tower pedigree that such is, in fact, precisely the case....? That bottom bull reversals accompany bad news and tops often set up with the good....? Then why, with such simple but repeatedly clarified observations should you leap to the opposite conclusion that the news drives the markets..... Is it that you feel so compelled to be in the company of television news anchor fools that wouldn't know a stp-loss from an MIT order? Think for yourself. You don't need an impressive credential or financial degree to trade the markets. In fact, your chances of success may just be better without one. Find a plan that is constructed around working models that occur repeatedly in the market place with some regularity. When they appear at the right edge of your video screen, take the trade. With a few filters and some trade management rules, this is your trade plan. Trade the plan. Become disciplined. The 'degree' to which you stay focused on your plan is the only credential necessary for success in trading. We don't predict. We only position. For more insights into market psychology, email will@valhallafutures.com and ask for the free ebook "Self Recognition".
Tues Apr 30 Trades & Journal
20130430
Long 1 YM 14702, -7
Long 2 TF 936.4, 936.6, +1.0, +0.5
Long 2 TF 936.5, 935.6, +0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 936.5, +1.7
Total YM -7
Total +4.2
Trading around the news can be tricky. But the important lesson regarding pre- and post-news positioning is to remember that the markets will eventually play out their intended trend regardless of the news; that the news does not change the underlying trend. It may exaggerate the reaction the trend intended all along, or it may initially nullify some of the power otherwise gathered beneath, but eventually the underlying trend will have its way. Period. Keep your eyes on your methods and trade what's in front of you, not what you think the market is supposed to do. The 1st hour lows today were a great example. The action was whippy, and taking longs into those lows in the TF contract could take a moment of breath away, but the concepts were solid, and eventually paid off. Stay focused. Keep to the plan. The trade plan will take you in and out at the right places, regardless of your feelings about the markets and the news.
Long 1 YM 14702, -7
Long 2 TF 936.4, 936.6, +1.0, +0.5
Long 2 TF 936.5, 935.6, +0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 936.5, +1.7
Total YM -7
Total +4.2
Trading around the news can be tricky. But the important lesson regarding pre- and post-news positioning is to remember that the markets will eventually play out their intended trend regardless of the news; that the news does not change the underlying trend. It may exaggerate the reaction the trend intended all along, or it may initially nullify some of the power otherwise gathered beneath, but eventually the underlying trend will have its way. Period. Keep your eyes on your methods and trade what's in front of you, not what you think the market is supposed to do. The 1st hour lows today were a great example. The action was whippy, and taking longs into those lows in the TF contract could take a moment of breath away, but the concepts were solid, and eventually paid off. Stay focused. Keep to the plan. The trade plan will take you in and out at the right places, regardless of your feelings about the markets and the news.
Mon Apr 29 Trades
20130429
Short 2 TF 936.4, 936.2, +1.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 937.1, -0.5
Short 1 YM 14681, -5
Short 1 ES 1582.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 940.6, 940.7, +1.2, +0.5
Short 2 YM 14722, 14725, -2, +6
Long 1 NQ 2861.5, -0
Total YM -1
Total ES -1.0
Total NQ -0
Total TF +2.7
Short 2 TF 936.4, 936.2, +1.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 937.1, -0.5
Short 1 YM 14681, -5
Short 1 ES 1582.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 940.6, 940.7, +1.2, +0.5
Short 2 YM 14722, 14725, -2, +6
Long 1 NQ 2861.5, -0
Total YM -1
Total ES -1.0
Total NQ -0
Total TF +2.7
Fri Apr 26 Trades and Journal
20130426
Long 2 TF 933.2, 932.8, +0.5, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 2839.25, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 2839.25, -0.5
Short 2 TF 936.9, 936.7, +1.2, +0.5
Short 1 TF 934.1, +1.0
Short 2 NQ 2833.75, 2833.75, +2.0, +5.0
Total NQ +8.5
Total TF +5.2
What a difference a day makes... An investor long in stocks would certainly have appreciated yesterday better than today. Yesterday's Persistent Trend Up requires nothing but a casual glance at the numbers if you're long in your 'portfolio'. But e-mini traders don't have 'portfolios'. We need volatility, and don't particularly care which way that volatility trends.... both directions is actually preferred. And today was just the recipe for a good trading day for us intraday swing chasers. Today, the plan was neat and tidy, even while the trend was not. Stay with the plan. Most days are not grinding slow trends with feeble breakouts and shallow pullbacks. We'll leave those for the investors. Most days have plenty of swings in the stock index futures, and that's what Serial Sequent Wave Method is best at, deciphering the wave reversals. Cya next week.....
Long 2 TF 933.2, 932.8, +0.5, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 2839.25, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 2839.25, -0.5
Short 2 TF 936.9, 936.7, +1.2, +0.5
Short 1 TF 934.1, +1.0
Short 2 NQ 2833.75, 2833.75, +2.0, +5.0
Total NQ +8.5
Total TF +5.2
What a difference a day makes... An investor long in stocks would certainly have appreciated yesterday better than today. Yesterday's Persistent Trend Up requires nothing but a casual glance at the numbers if you're long in your 'portfolio'. But e-mini traders don't have 'portfolios'. We need volatility, and don't particularly care which way that volatility trends.... both directions is actually preferred. And today was just the recipe for a good trading day for us intraday swing chasers. Today, the plan was neat and tidy, even while the trend was not. Stay with the plan. Most days are not grinding slow trends with feeble breakouts and shallow pullbacks. We'll leave those for the investors. Most days have plenty of swings in the stock index futures, and that's what Serial Sequent Wave Method is best at, deciphering the wave reversals. Cya next week.....
Thurs Apr 25 Trades & Journal
20130425
Short 2 TF 936.4, 936.2, +1.5, +0.7
Short 1 TF 937.2, -0.5,
Short 2 TF 937.8, 938.2, -1.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 939.6, +1.0
Short 1 ES 1580.25, -1.0
Short 1 ES 1582.0, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 2847.0, 2847.75, -2.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 940.8, 940.8, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 YM 14969, 14969, +7, -0
Short 1 TF 940.6, -0.4
Short 2 ES 1585.25, 1585.25, -0.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 941.1, -0.5
Long 1 TF 940.0, -0.7
Total ES -2.5
Total NQ -3.0
Total YM +7
Total TF -0.8
The Persistent Trend Day Up/Down is the most challenging of all day models to work with. Sometimes there is no early trigger and no 1st frame pullback to jump on board with. This leaves you fading the market only to see it grind through your stops and eventually onto the next resistance and structure sequent for another fade opportunity....always counter trend. Luckily, this model only accounts for a few days out of every month's worth of trading. Try to keep the losses small, well within the parameters of offsetting no more than an average day's gains, and keep the rest of the proverbial powder dry for other trading days' opportunities. Stay disciplined.
Short 2 TF 936.4, 936.2, +1.5, +0.7
Short 1 TF 937.2, -0.5,
Short 2 TF 937.8, 938.2, -1.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 939.6, +1.0
Short 1 ES 1580.25, -1.0
Short 1 ES 1582.0, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 2847.0, 2847.75, -2.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 940.8, 940.8, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 YM 14969, 14969, +7, -0
Short 1 TF 940.6, -0.4
Short 2 ES 1585.25, 1585.25, -0.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 941.1, -0.5
Long 1 TF 940.0, -0.7
Total ES -2.5
Total NQ -3.0
Total YM +7
Total TF -0.8
The Persistent Trend Day Up/Down is the most challenging of all day models to work with. Sometimes there is no early trigger and no 1st frame pullback to jump on board with. This leaves you fading the market only to see it grind through your stops and eventually onto the next resistance and structure sequent for another fade opportunity....always counter trend. Luckily, this model only accounts for a few days out of every month's worth of trading. Try to keep the losses small, well within the parameters of offsetting no more than an average day's gains, and keep the rest of the proverbial powder dry for other trading days' opportunities. Stay disciplined.
Wed Apr 24 Trades & Journal
20130424
Long 2 TF 925.2, 925.3, +1.5, +0.5
Long 2 NQ 2830.25, 2830.75, +2.0, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 2829.0, -1.0
Long 2 NQ 2829.5, 2829.5, +2.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 929.3, -0.5
Long 1 TF 926.6, +1.2
Long 1 TF 926.6, -0.0
Long 1 TF 926.9, -0.5
Long 2 TF 926.1, 926.1, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 YM 14628, 14628, +7, +12
Short 1 TF 928.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 929.0, 929.0, -0.2, +1.2
Long 2 TF 925.7, 925.5, +0.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 925.5, +1.1
Total YM +19
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +2.9
The second trend of the day tends to be more impulsive than the first. It also tends to be the truer trend. Today's two-sided trading tends to defy that a bit, with a 3rd trend coming to the rescue of the 1st. But just taking that concept of the 2nd trend for consideration of breakouts still can be more fruitful than buying breakouts to the 1st trend. ...at least on the majority of days. Today was no exception to that. And after getting sucked into a TF bull breakout that stopped me out quickly at the early highs, I got mentally blocked about using bear inflection breakdowns to capitalize on the short opportunities that produced those nice plunging spike lows in the NQ and TF a short while later.
Trading with Serial Sequent signals brings an objective and mechanical way to bring floor traders techniques to the screen. It tells you where to enter the stop-n-reverse plays, assuming you can get past the mental blocks these trades can put up. And nothing reinforces a mental block about a breakout play than freshly coming off just such an entry in the opposite direction that failed, and left you feeling stupid and humiliated for buying a top, or selling a bottom. The problem in trading is not the mistakes that you make taking your trade plan, it's in trading your plan immediately after it causes you a mistake. Stay focused. When a trade is over, put it away mentally. No use still trying to prove yourself right about that trend direction if the signal failed you. And all the more so that a failed signal in one direction should quickly move your rally cap around backwards telling you that the true trend is really in the opposite direction. Have a plan for such things. Use methods that identify such things with trade models, and then trade that plan. There are no perfect days. There is just the plan.
Long 2 TF 925.2, 925.3, +1.5, +0.5
Long 2 NQ 2830.25, 2830.75, +2.0, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 2829.0, -1.0
Long 2 NQ 2829.5, 2829.5, +2.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 929.3, -0.5
Long 1 TF 926.6, +1.2
Long 1 TF 926.6, -0.0
Long 1 TF 926.9, -0.5
Long 2 TF 926.1, 926.1, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 YM 14628, 14628, +7, +12
Short 1 TF 928.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 929.0, 929.0, -0.2, +1.2
Long 2 TF 925.7, 925.5, +0.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 925.5, +1.1
Total YM +19
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +2.9
The second trend of the day tends to be more impulsive than the first. It also tends to be the truer trend. Today's two-sided trading tends to defy that a bit, with a 3rd trend coming to the rescue of the 1st. But just taking that concept of the 2nd trend for consideration of breakouts still can be more fruitful than buying breakouts to the 1st trend. ...at least on the majority of days. Today was no exception to that. And after getting sucked into a TF bull breakout that stopped me out quickly at the early highs, I got mentally blocked about using bear inflection breakdowns to capitalize on the short opportunities that produced those nice plunging spike lows in the NQ and TF a short while later.
Trading with Serial Sequent signals brings an objective and mechanical way to bring floor traders techniques to the screen. It tells you where to enter the stop-n-reverse plays, assuming you can get past the mental blocks these trades can put up. And nothing reinforces a mental block about a breakout play than freshly coming off just such an entry in the opposite direction that failed, and left you feeling stupid and humiliated for buying a top, or selling a bottom. The problem in trading is not the mistakes that you make taking your trade plan, it's in trading your plan immediately after it causes you a mistake. Stay focused. When a trade is over, put it away mentally. No use still trying to prove yourself right about that trend direction if the signal failed you. And all the more so that a failed signal in one direction should quickly move your rally cap around backwards telling you that the true trend is really in the opposite direction. Have a plan for such things. Use methods that identify such things with trade models, and then trade that plan. There are no perfect days. There is just the plan.
Tues Apr 23 Trades & Journal
20130423
Short 2 ES 1568.75, 1568.5, -1.25, -1.5
Short 2 NQ 2828.25, 2828.75, -0.5, +2.0
Short 2 YM 14632, 14635, +7, +10
Short 2 YM 14637, 14636, -4, -5
Long 2 YM 14642, 14642, -4, -4
Short 2 NQ 2832.5, 2832.5, +2.0, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 2832.5, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 2833.5, 2832.5, -2.0, -1.0
Short ES 1572.5, -0.75
Short 2 TF 924.9, 924.8, +1.2, +0.4
Total ES -3.5
Total NQ +2.5
Total YM -0
Total TF +1.6
Some days seems would have been better spent fishing... but it can't be great every day, can it. Was reminded of one thing today. It's much easier taking breakouts when the chances of success are actually worse. Why is that...? Mostly, I believe, because things a much calmer, and this sense of tranquility draws you in. On days when the action really pops, and you have to be on your toes to react quickly at the stp-n-rev junctures, you can have a tendency to freeze up, at least if you're breakout shy, as I am in my trading. I took several breakouts today. One in the NQ and one in the YM. The YM breakout was clearly outside my plan. I don't use it for a breakout leadership role, but today, possibly because it just stopped me out from a short at resistance, I flipped and bought the breakout to 'get even', only to see it belly-flop right back down in my face. This is a discouraging aspect of breakout trading. Breakouts can hook you so badly, and nothing feels worse than shorting a bottom or buying a top. All in all, when the action is choppy and the pullbacks shallow, keep the losses small, and if nothing else, let the gains help you tread the water on a day that's not really good for trading.
Short 2 ES 1568.75, 1568.5, -1.25, -1.5
Short 2 NQ 2828.25, 2828.75, -0.5, +2.0
Short 2 YM 14632, 14635, +7, +10
Short 2 YM 14637, 14636, -4, -5
Long 2 YM 14642, 14642, -4, -4
Short 2 NQ 2832.5, 2832.5, +2.0, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 2832.5, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 2833.5, 2832.5, -2.0, -1.0
Short ES 1572.5, -0.75
Short 2 TF 924.9, 924.8, +1.2, +0.4
Total ES -3.5
Total NQ +2.5
Total YM -0
Total TF +1.6
Some days seems would have been better spent fishing... but it can't be great every day, can it. Was reminded of one thing today. It's much easier taking breakouts when the chances of success are actually worse. Why is that...? Mostly, I believe, because things a much calmer, and this sense of tranquility draws you in. On days when the action really pops, and you have to be on your toes to react quickly at the stp-n-rev junctures, you can have a tendency to freeze up, at least if you're breakout shy, as I am in my trading. I took several breakouts today. One in the NQ and one in the YM. The YM breakout was clearly outside my plan. I don't use it for a breakout leadership role, but today, possibly because it just stopped me out from a short at resistance, I flipped and bought the breakout to 'get even', only to see it belly-flop right back down in my face. This is a discouraging aspect of breakout trading. Breakouts can hook you so badly, and nothing feels worse than shorting a bottom or buying a top. All in all, when the action is choppy and the pullbacks shallow, keep the losses small, and if nothing else, let the gains help you tread the water on a day that's not really good for trading.
Mon Apr 22 Trades
20130422
Long 1 ES 1548.0, +1.5
Long 1 NQ 2779.25, +4.0
Short 1 TF 898.5, -0.5
Long 1 ES 1547.0, -1.5
Long 1 ES 1545.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 898.3, 898.9, -0.0, +1.2
Long 1 ES 1545.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 899.0, 899.3, -0.7, -0.3
Long 2 NQ 2774.5, 2774.5, +2.0, +4.0
Long 1 YM 14409, -2
Long 1 TF 900.6, +0.7
Total ES +1.0
Total NQ +10
Total YM -2
Total TF +0.4
Long 1 ES 1548.0, +1.5
Long 1 NQ 2779.25, +4.0
Short 1 TF 898.5, -0.5
Long 1 ES 1547.0, -1.5
Long 1 ES 1545.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 898.3, 898.9, -0.0, +1.2
Long 1 ES 1545.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 899.0, 899.3, -0.7, -0.3
Long 2 NQ 2774.5, 2774.5, +2.0, +4.0
Long 1 YM 14409, -2
Long 1 TF 900.6, +0.7
Total ES +1.0
Total NQ +10
Total YM -2
Total TF +0.4
Fir Apr 19 Trades
20130419
Long 2 YM 14416, 14414, -6, -4
Long 2 TF 895.4, 895.4, +0.5, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 2759.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 903.1, -0.1
Short 1 NQ 2763.5, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 2765.75, +3.0
Short 1 TF 905, +1.0
Total YM -10
Total NQ +5.5
Total TF +3.4
Long 2 YM 14416, 14414, -6, -4
Long 2 TF 895.4, 895.4, +0.5, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 2759.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 903.1, -0.1
Short 1 NQ 2763.5, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 2765.75, +3.0
Short 1 TF 905, +1.0
Total YM -10
Total NQ +5.5
Total TF +3.4
Thurs Apr 18 Trades
Trade Summary
20130418
Short 1 TF 903.5, -1.0
Short 2 TF 905.6, 905.9, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 2760.75, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 2759.0, 2759.0, +0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 899.6, -1.0
Long 1 TF 896.3, +2.0
Long 2 ES 1536.5, 1536.25, +3.0, +1.5
Total ES +4.5
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +2.7
20130418
Short 1 TF 903.5, -1.0
Short 2 TF 905.6, 905.9, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 2760.75, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 2759.0, 2759.0, +0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 899.6, -1.0
Long 1 TF 896.3, +2.0
Long 2 ES 1536.5, 1536.25, +3.0, +1.5
Total ES +4.5
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +2.7
Wed Apr 17 Trades
20130417
Long 1 ES 1552.75, +1.5
Short 1 TF 912.3, -1.0
Short 2 TF 913.2, 913.2, +0.7, +1.4
Short 1 TF 906.8, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 2791.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 2788.5, 2288.75, -2.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 906.0, +1.2
Long 2 TF 903.6, 903.6, -0.3, -0.5
Long 3 TF 903.3, 903.2, 903.4, -0.5, -0.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 902.8, +1.2
Long 2 TF 900.6, 900.0, -0.0, +1.8
Long 1 NQ 2774.75, -2.0
Long 1 TF 899.5, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 2773.75, -1.0
Long 2 YM 14514, 14515, +7, +10
Long 1 TF 895.8, +1.7
Total ES +1.5
Total NQ -8.0
Total YM +17
Total TF +5.2
Long 1 ES 1552.75, +1.5
Short 1 TF 912.3, -1.0
Short 2 TF 913.2, 913.2, +0.7, +1.4
Short 1 TF 906.8, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 2791.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 2788.5, 2288.75, -2.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 906.0, +1.2
Long 2 TF 903.6, 903.6, -0.3, -0.5
Long 3 TF 903.3, 903.2, 903.4, -0.5, -0.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 902.8, +1.2
Long 2 TF 900.6, 900.0, -0.0, +1.8
Long 1 NQ 2774.75, -2.0
Long 1 TF 899.5, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 2773.75, -1.0
Long 2 YM 14514, 14515, +7, +10
Long 1 TF 895.8, +1.7
Total ES +1.5
Total NQ -8.0
Total YM +17
Total TF +5.2
Tues Apr 16 Trades
20130416
Short 2 TF 913.3, 013.2, +1.4, +0.5
Short 1 TF 910.1, +0.5
Long 1 NQ 2805.75, +3.0
Long 2 YM 14618, 14616, +7, +10
Long 1 YM 14623, -4
Long 1 YM 14612, -5,
Short 1 YM 14608, +5
Total YM +13
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +2.4
Short 2 TF 913.3, 013.2, +1.4, +0.5
Short 1 TF 910.1, +0.5
Long 1 NQ 2805.75, +3.0
Long 2 YM 14618, 14616, +7, +10
Long 1 YM 14623, -4
Long 1 YM 14612, -5,
Short 1 YM 14608, +5
Total YM +13
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +2.4
Mon Apr 15 Trades
20130415
Long 2 TF 931.1, 930.8, +0.3, +1.4
Long 1 TF 928.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 925.7, 925.9, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 922.9, 923.0, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 NQ 2841.5, 2841.75, +2.0, +3.0
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +2.0
Long 2 TF 931.1, 930.8, +0.3, +1.4
Long 1 TF 928.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 925.7, 925.9, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 922.9, 923.0, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 NQ 2841.5, 2841.75, +2.0, +3.0
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +2.0
Fri Apr 12 Trades
20130412
Long 1 NQ 2848.25, -0.0
Long 1 TF 939.0, +1.9
Long 2 NQ 2844.5, 2844.25, -1.25, -0.75
Long 1 NQ 2843.25, +4.75
Short 1 TF 937.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 936.8, -0.2
Total NQ +2.75
Total TF +1.7
Long 1 NQ 2848.25, -0.0
Long 1 TF 939.0, +1.9
Long 2 NQ 2844.5, 2844.25, -1.25, -0.75
Long 1 NQ 2843.25, +4.75
Short 1 TF 937.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 936.8, -0.2
Total NQ +2.75
Total TF +1.7
Thurs Apr 11 Trades & Journal
20130411
Short 2 TF 943.7, 944.0, -1.0, -0.6
Short 2 TF 945.3, 945.2, -0.5, -0.3
Short 1 TF 946.4, +1.2
Short 1 TF 947.1, -0.1
Short 2 YM 14784, 14784, -4, -5
Short 2 TF 947.6, 947.7, -0.4, -0.3
Total YM -9
Total TF -2.0
Very seldom do you get two Persistent Trend Day Ups in a row. Today was no exception, but the first frame of the day didn't seem to think so, and unlike yesterday, reversal levels offered no real pullback profits for counter trend shorts. And like yesterday, the buy signals that came at the initial, early Low-of-Day went unfilled by my orders, and both by just a few ticks. So I never caught the bull blast launch pads. But whether by a few ticks or many points, such things happen in trading. Since the first trend direction of the day is usually false and a setup for the true trend in the opposite direction, missing a fade of that early trend means you're left looking for trades into or as the 2nd trend, the true trend, is already underway. Either you fade that true trend with counter trend entries-- very carefully, like accomplished yesterday-- or you go with that 2nd trend at subsequent breakout levels. My trade plan includes those breakout levels, but my heart doesn't always get the message. ...and even less so today than yesterday would I have gone with bull breakouts as the 2nd Persistent Trend Day up in a row... but there it was...exploding upwards again without me into the deep blue sky of Dow Jones Indust'ls all time new highs. So today, I castigate myself much less for not having taken the bull breakout signals, and shrug my shoulders at having missed the nice YM buy signal entry a few ticks shy at the very Low. The week so far 2 days winners, 2 losers, for about a wash. New term for today's highs in the TF: Serial Climax.
Next week is new blood, and that is just another reason I love day trading so much. I don't hold positions overnight nor over the weekend. Every day and every week is a fresh start. Stick to the plan, and construct all self criticisms around whether you fulfilled plan parameters or failed them. There is no other yardstick for self improvement. You can't improve 'intuition'. It's a disintegrating asset in trading. ....an issue with which I apparently disagree with Mark Douglas' concept of finding 'the zone'. For me, the zone is the plan. The plan is not in my head. It's very nature is to lie outside of one's head and ability to tape read or intuit the here and now. The plan is the only here and now. And once in place, a plan is modified with only slow and incremental improvements. ...never on the fly. Good trading to all....
Short 2 TF 943.7, 944.0, -1.0, -0.6
Short 2 TF 945.3, 945.2, -0.5, -0.3
Short 1 TF 946.4, +1.2
Short 1 TF 947.1, -0.1
Short 2 YM 14784, 14784, -4, -5
Short 2 TF 947.6, 947.7, -0.4, -0.3
Total YM -9
Total TF -2.0
Very seldom do you get two Persistent Trend Day Ups in a row. Today was no exception, but the first frame of the day didn't seem to think so, and unlike yesterday, reversal levels offered no real pullback profits for counter trend shorts. And like yesterday, the buy signals that came at the initial, early Low-of-Day went unfilled by my orders, and both by just a few ticks. So I never caught the bull blast launch pads. But whether by a few ticks or many points, such things happen in trading. Since the first trend direction of the day is usually false and a setup for the true trend in the opposite direction, missing a fade of that early trend means you're left looking for trades into or as the 2nd trend, the true trend, is already underway. Either you fade that true trend with counter trend entries-- very carefully, like accomplished yesterday-- or you go with that 2nd trend at subsequent breakout levels. My trade plan includes those breakout levels, but my heart doesn't always get the message. ...and even less so today than yesterday would I have gone with bull breakouts as the 2nd Persistent Trend Day up in a row... but there it was...exploding upwards again without me into the deep blue sky of Dow Jones Indust'ls all time new highs. So today, I castigate myself much less for not having taken the bull breakout signals, and shrug my shoulders at having missed the nice YM buy signal entry a few ticks shy at the very Low. The week so far 2 days winners, 2 losers, for about a wash. New term for today's highs in the TF: Serial Climax.
Next week is new blood, and that is just another reason I love day trading so much. I don't hold positions overnight nor over the weekend. Every day and every week is a fresh start. Stick to the plan, and construct all self criticisms around whether you fulfilled plan parameters or failed them. There is no other yardstick for self improvement. You can't improve 'intuition'. It's a disintegrating asset in trading. ....an issue with which I apparently disagree with Mark Douglas' concept of finding 'the zone'. For me, the zone is the plan. The plan is not in my head. It's very nature is to lie outside of one's head and ability to tape read or intuit the here and now. The plan is the only here and now. And once in place, a plan is modified with only slow and incremental improvements. ...never on the fly. Good trading to all....
Wed Apr 10 Trades & Journal
20130410
Short 2 TF 931.2, 931.0, -0.3, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 2820.75, 2820.5, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 TF 933.0, 932.8, +0.5, -0.7
Short 1 ES 1573.25, -1.5
Short 2 NQ 2833.0, 2832.5, -1.25, +1.0
Short 2 TF 935.6, 935.4, +0.5, +2.0
Short 2 YM 14697, 14695, +7, -3
Short 1 TF 934.5, +1.0
Short 1 ES 1576.5, -1.0
Short 2 TF 936.8, 936.6, -0.4, -0.0
Short 2 TF 936.6, 936.8, -0.4, -0.2
Short 2 TF 939.6, 939.6, +0.5, +1.6
Total ES -2.5
Total YM +4
Total NQ -3.25
Total TF +4.6
It's easy to have a mental predisposition as to the trend direction in the larger daily time frames. We just can't believe it can go any lower or any higher... Right now, for me, I suffer a disbelief in this bull market extension. ...and probably for good reason... but that really has no meaning down in the lowest time frames where we trade index futures. Our world view is only the first hour and half of the day. That's the 1st frame. And in that frame, the market can do anything... and usually does. Today, there was a valid bull breakout trigger in the earliest going for the TF contract. But I just couldn't be a buyer. Part of it was the lingering affect of looking at the previous days charts as preparation for today, and seeing the total bull collapse at the close, suggesting gains can't held. Part of it was that prejudice of disbelief in the bull market extension referenced above. But in any case, thereafter, there was really nothing left to do with the rest of the frame than to use the sell signals that appeared as short entries, if I was to have any trades in this grinding bull at all. And those in the TF did pay off well, erasing my losses earlier. But a clear mind as to trend reference and the market's ability to extend to any height it wants is the proper frame of reference for the trader. Clear the mind. Accept the outcome. The market is its own authority on value, not you. Trade your plan. The rest will take care of itself.
Short 2 TF 931.2, 931.0, -0.3, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 2820.75, 2820.5, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 TF 933.0, 932.8, +0.5, -0.7
Short 1 ES 1573.25, -1.5
Short 2 NQ 2833.0, 2832.5, -1.25, +1.0
Short 2 TF 935.6, 935.4, +0.5, +2.0
Short 2 YM 14697, 14695, +7, -3
Short 1 TF 934.5, +1.0
Short 1 ES 1576.5, -1.0
Short 2 TF 936.8, 936.6, -0.4, -0.0
Short 2 TF 936.6, 936.8, -0.4, -0.2
Short 2 TF 939.6, 939.6, +0.5, +1.6
Total ES -2.5
Total YM +4
Total NQ -3.25
Total TF +4.6
It's easy to have a mental predisposition as to the trend direction in the larger daily time frames. We just can't believe it can go any lower or any higher... Right now, for me, I suffer a disbelief in this bull market extension. ...and probably for good reason... but that really has no meaning down in the lowest time frames where we trade index futures. Our world view is only the first hour and half of the day. That's the 1st frame. And in that frame, the market can do anything... and usually does. Today, there was a valid bull breakout trigger in the earliest going for the TF contract. But I just couldn't be a buyer. Part of it was the lingering affect of looking at the previous days charts as preparation for today, and seeing the total bull collapse at the close, suggesting gains can't held. Part of it was that prejudice of disbelief in the bull market extension referenced above. But in any case, thereafter, there was really nothing left to do with the rest of the frame than to use the sell signals that appeared as short entries, if I was to have any trades in this grinding bull at all. And those in the TF did pay off well, erasing my losses earlier. But a clear mind as to trend reference and the market's ability to extend to any height it wants is the proper frame of reference for the trader. Clear the mind. Accept the outcome. The market is its own authority on value, not you. Trade your plan. The rest will take care of itself.
Tues Apr 9 Trades & Journal
20130409
Long 3 TF 928.3, 928.5, 928.0, -0.7, -0.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 927.4, -0.7
Long 2 TF 926.7, 926.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 926.2, 926.2, -0.3, -0.3
Long 2 TF 925.3, 925.3, -0.4, -0.4
Total TF -4.5
'Be careful what you wish for....' as Goethe warned. Volatility is the lifeblood of traders. And on many days, it seems our trades are squeezing what lemonade we can from a stone. But on other days, volatility extends impulse waves in both directions right through support-resistance zones and right through our stp-loss orders. However, it can be fairly said of my trading that I was a bit impatient to find the first Low-of-Day to the initial sell-off. The reversal was sharp, and the reaction took price all the way back up to a new High-of-Day, more than I could have hoped for had my early longs survived the deep over-entension. So perhaps my eagerness had some justification. The ingredients for a sharp reversal were all there. But the market rules and we must bend. The best that can be said of one's trading on such days is that a plan also includes loss quotas, and reaching a loss quota curtails one's behavior. There is nothing to do but fold up the tent, no matter how right you almost were.
To get back in the game on the same day after reaching a loss quota, my trading plan allows for taking a short series of paper trades in simulation mode. For this, I must get 2 out of 3 trades profitable before I am allowed to take another trade with real money. I took this exercise today, but lost on the first 2 paper trades. Hence, I'm done for the day. A winning day yesterday, however, keeps me well in the realm of a profitable week. Tomorrow is always 'new life' for a trader ....but only if he curtails any losses so far in the week to within a manageable level. Otherwise, he faces a losing week. A losing week could mean it will take one winning week to make up in the month, and that leaves only 2 weeks left in the month with which to show a monthly profit. Don't let the losses stack up too deep before kicking yourself out of real money trading and back on the simulator. The desire to 'get even' usually does far more damage than the earlier losses themselves. Control your behavior. Have a plan before you ever start trading to curtail your losses after so many losers in a row, so much loss per day, so many days in a row or a week, etc. If you can't perform with consistency, step out of cash and onto a simulator. Find out what's wrong. Respect your capital. It's your primary tool.
Long 3 TF 928.3, 928.5, 928.0, -0.7, -0.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 927.4, -0.7
Long 2 TF 926.7, 926.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 926.2, 926.2, -0.3, -0.3
Long 2 TF 925.3, 925.3, -0.4, -0.4
Total TF -4.5
'Be careful what you wish for....' as Goethe warned. Volatility is the lifeblood of traders. And on many days, it seems our trades are squeezing what lemonade we can from a stone. But on other days, volatility extends impulse waves in both directions right through support-resistance zones and right through our stp-loss orders. However, it can be fairly said of my trading that I was a bit impatient to find the first Low-of-Day to the initial sell-off. The reversal was sharp, and the reaction took price all the way back up to a new High-of-Day, more than I could have hoped for had my early longs survived the deep over-entension. So perhaps my eagerness had some justification. The ingredients for a sharp reversal were all there. But the market rules and we must bend. The best that can be said of one's trading on such days is that a plan also includes loss quotas, and reaching a loss quota curtails one's behavior. There is nothing to do but fold up the tent, no matter how right you almost were.
To get back in the game on the same day after reaching a loss quota, my trading plan allows for taking a short series of paper trades in simulation mode. For this, I must get 2 out of 3 trades profitable before I am allowed to take another trade with real money. I took this exercise today, but lost on the first 2 paper trades. Hence, I'm done for the day. A winning day yesterday, however, keeps me well in the realm of a profitable week. Tomorrow is always 'new life' for a trader ....but only if he curtails any losses so far in the week to within a manageable level. Otherwise, he faces a losing week. A losing week could mean it will take one winning week to make up in the month, and that leaves only 2 weeks left in the month with which to show a monthly profit. Don't let the losses stack up too deep before kicking yourself out of real money trading and back on the simulator. The desire to 'get even' usually does far more damage than the earlier losses themselves. Control your behavior. Have a plan before you ever start trading to curtail your losses after so many losers in a row, so much loss per day, so many days in a row or a week, etc. If you can't perform with consistency, step out of cash and onto a simulator. Find out what's wrong. Respect your capital. It's your primary tool.
Mon Apr 8 Trades & Journal
20130408
Long 2 TF 919.8, 920.1, -0.1, +0.5
Long 2 TF 918.4, +0.5, +1.3
Long 1 TF 918.5, -0.6
Long 1 TF 918.2, -0.4
Long 1 TF 916.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 917.9, -0.7
Total TF +2.5
The underlying structure of market action is fractal sequents. These sequents can be codified so that hitherto unrecognizable chaos can be converted to structure sections of an unfolding trend. These sections elicit trade entry signals that can be worked into a trading plan along with an accompanying support/resistance grid, and a momentum system that is wave and time independent from the structure itself. Together, signals arrive in the confluence of these disparate elements, in what we call an Event Concept. With this understanding, even today's seemingly chaotic moves make sense. But you still have to manage your trades, and position your entries with stp-loss orders that accommodate the surprise thrusts of unexpected and sudden volatility. Within the trend parameters of these turn signals, we have opportunity. Defining these potential turn parameters with specific, individual labels gives us a trade plan. Trading within a plan frees us from 'tape reading' and intuition. Trade the plan, not your intuition, and let the market unfold as it will. There is plenty of profit potential if you stick to your plan. ValhallaFutures offers all this education--and the software that codifies it--in a 10-session training course conducted online in virtual meeting rooms. Send us an email and we'll sign you up for the next lesson rotation starting sometime in April.
Long 2 TF 919.8, 920.1, -0.1, +0.5
Long 2 TF 918.4, +0.5, +1.3
Long 1 TF 918.5, -0.6
Long 1 TF 918.2, -0.4
Long 1 TF 916.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 917.9, -0.7
Total TF +2.5
The underlying structure of market action is fractal sequents. These sequents can be codified so that hitherto unrecognizable chaos can be converted to structure sections of an unfolding trend. These sections elicit trade entry signals that can be worked into a trading plan along with an accompanying support/resistance grid, and a momentum system that is wave and time independent from the structure itself. Together, signals arrive in the confluence of these disparate elements, in what we call an Event Concept. With this understanding, even today's seemingly chaotic moves make sense. But you still have to manage your trades, and position your entries with stp-loss orders that accommodate the surprise thrusts of unexpected and sudden volatility. Within the trend parameters of these turn signals, we have opportunity. Defining these potential turn parameters with specific, individual labels gives us a trade plan. Trading within a plan frees us from 'tape reading' and intuition. Trade the plan, not your intuition, and let the market unfold as it will. There is plenty of profit potential if you stick to your plan. ValhallaFutures offers all this education--and the software that codifies it--in a 10-session training course conducted online in virtual meeting rooms. Send us an email and we'll sign you up for the next lesson rotation starting sometime in April.
Fri Apr 5 Trades & Journal
20130405
Short 1 NQ 2746.75, -1.0
Short 1 TF 912.4, +1.4
Short 2 TF 915.2, 915.1, +1.1, +0.5
Short 1 TF 915.4, +1.0
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +4.0
Huge gaps like today's inspire the crowd into the 'Gap Play'. It's almost a cliche. However, we're in the universe of real leverage with index futures, and early gap closing attempts usually fail. So it's the pullback to new lows that should inspire interest, where initial traders are getting stp'd out. From the Douglas Corollaries: "If most of the money that is lost in markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which way the market was supposed to go, then most of the money to be made in the markets is made at the places where most traders are being stp-d out and proven wrong." Unfortunately, even though I knew this, I still couldn't find long entries near the lows that fit my trade plan. I could smell the turn, and in the chat room was repeatedly calling for longs on lower breaks successively in the ES, YM and TF. But those lower lows that fit my entry models never came, and eventually prices turned back up without me. But counter trend trading is not outside my trade plan, as long as the precise models for those entries are fulfilled. Stay with your plan. There are so many trading opportunities using index futures. Wait for yours to appear at the right edge of the video screen. Trade within your plan, not where you think the market is supposed to go. ...a good weekend to all.....
Short 1 NQ 2746.75, -1.0
Short 1 TF 912.4, +1.4
Short 2 TF 915.2, 915.1, +1.1, +0.5
Short 1 TF 915.4, +1.0
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +4.0
Huge gaps like today's inspire the crowd into the 'Gap Play'. It's almost a cliche. However, we're in the universe of real leverage with index futures, and early gap closing attempts usually fail. So it's the pullback to new lows that should inspire interest, where initial traders are getting stp'd out. From the Douglas Corollaries: "If most of the money that is lost in markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which way the market was supposed to go, then most of the money to be made in the markets is made at the places where most traders are being stp-d out and proven wrong." Unfortunately, even though I knew this, I still couldn't find long entries near the lows that fit my trade plan. I could smell the turn, and in the chat room was repeatedly calling for longs on lower breaks successively in the ES, YM and TF. But those lower lows that fit my entry models never came, and eventually prices turned back up without me. But counter trend trading is not outside my trade plan, as long as the precise models for those entries are fulfilled. Stay with your plan. There are so many trading opportunities using index futures. Wait for yours to appear at the right edge of the video screen. Trade within your plan, not where you think the market is supposed to go. ...a good weekend to all.....
Thurs Apr 4 Trades & Journal
20130404
Long 1 TF 915.5, -0.6
Short 1 NQ 2790.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 917.2, 917.6, -0.7, +0.5
Short 1 TF 917.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 918.6, +0.9
Long 1 TF 915.4, -0.2
Long 1 YM 14481, +19
Total YM +19
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +0.9
Sudden volatility spikes are always a challenge. Today, both the European Central Bnk Pres Draghi and our own Fed Chief Bernanke were providing background energy for market swings. But there's an internal structure to the market that many are aware of but few are able to codify. It plays itself out regardless of the news, but often with just a lot more volatility. You can always reduce your trade size on such days. And in order to get the best fills, you have to balance three internal elements to your trade plan. One, you have to have models that codify the reversals and the breakouts. Two, you have to have patience until the signal really fleshes out. And last, you have to be ready to strike with and entry the moment that model flashes its presence. It's often compared to baseball. You have to be calm while you wait for the ball to be hit, and when it is, you have to react with lightning speed with a plan you already have executed in your head for just that contingency. In other words, you have to recognize what element in your plan has been triggered, and execute. Stay discipline.
Long 1 TF 915.5, -0.6
Short 1 NQ 2790.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 917.2, 917.6, -0.7, +0.5
Short 1 TF 917.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 918.6, +0.9
Long 1 TF 915.4, -0.2
Long 1 YM 14481, +19
Total YM +19
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +0.9
Sudden volatility spikes are always a challenge. Today, both the European Central Bnk Pres Draghi and our own Fed Chief Bernanke were providing background energy for market swings. But there's an internal structure to the market that many are aware of but few are able to codify. It plays itself out regardless of the news, but often with just a lot more volatility. You can always reduce your trade size on such days. And in order to get the best fills, you have to balance three internal elements to your trade plan. One, you have to have models that codify the reversals and the breakouts. Two, you have to have patience until the signal really fleshes out. And last, you have to be ready to strike with and entry the moment that model flashes its presence. It's often compared to baseball. You have to be calm while you wait for the ball to be hit, and when it is, you have to react with lightning speed with a plan you already have executed in your head for just that contingency. In other words, you have to recognize what element in your plan has been triggered, and execute. Stay discipline.
Wed Apr 3 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130403
Long 1 YM 14565, -2
Long 2 TF 929.4, 928.8, +.5, +2.0
Long 1 YM 14556, -4
Long 1 NQ 2810.5, -2.0
Long 2 TF 923.5, 923.2, +1.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 925.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 922.5, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 2805.00, -1.5
Total YM -6
Total NQ -3.5
Total +4.0
Nice swings today at the turn signals, although YM and NQ entries were early and suffered small stp-outs. I followed my rules regarding stp trailing and that kept me from being stp'd out for the 1st TF trade, that went slightly against me after my initial 1/2 position exit. I was late on several other TF entries, but was given fills on retests. This waiting can often mean you miss the trades, for markets do not always retest turn turn levels initially. It has to remind us that getting a good fill is always a bit of luck and a lot of practice. In too soon, or waiting too long out of caution when trying to decide on your entry price. You can't have it like Goldie Locks, not too hot nor cold. The best you can do is just get in the trade and manage it within your stp-loss distance and your stp-loss order trailing rules. Make a plan, and then stay with it...
20130403
Long 1 YM 14565, -2
Long 2 TF 929.4, 928.8, +.5, +2.0
Long 1 YM 14556, -4
Long 1 NQ 2810.5, -2.0
Long 2 TF 923.5, 923.2, +1.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 925.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 922.5, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 2805.00, -1.5
Total YM -6
Total NQ -3.5
Total +4.0
Nice swings today at the turn signals, although YM and NQ entries were early and suffered small stp-outs. I followed my rules regarding stp trailing and that kept me from being stp'd out for the 1st TF trade, that went slightly against me after my initial 1/2 position exit. I was late on several other TF entries, but was given fills on retests. This waiting can often mean you miss the trades, for markets do not always retest turn turn levels initially. It has to remind us that getting a good fill is always a bit of luck and a lot of practice. In too soon, or waiting too long out of caution when trying to decide on your entry price. You can't have it like Goldie Locks, not too hot nor cold. The best you can do is just get in the trade and manage it within your stp-loss distance and your stp-loss order trailing rules. Make a plan, and then stay with it...
Wed Mar 27 Trades & Journal
20130327
Short 1 NQ 2780.5, -1.0
Short 3 NQ 2782.75, 2782.5, 2782.75, -0.0, -1.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 939.5, -0.0
Short 2 NQ 2780.0, 2787.25, +3.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 937.2, 937.1, +0.5, -0.7
Long 3 NQ 2779.9, 2779.75, +2.0, +2.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 938.9, -0.5
Short 2 TF 939.4, 939.4, +0.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 940.5, 940.6, -1.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 942.0, 942.0, -0.2, -0.2
Short 2 TF 942.0, 941.9, +0.9, +0.3
Short 1 TF 944.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 944.9, 944.8, -0.3, -0.4
Total NQ +10
Total TF -3.3
Lack of patience can work both ways. First, it can spur you out of a position early before it has had a chance to fully develop towards possible targets. But just as deadly are those trades entered too early without the trade model fully in place, because you fear 'missing' the entry. And to add to the brine, any lingering recent memories of trades you actually did miss because you were 'too' patient motivate you not to let that happen again. So, you become anxious. Today, I took a 2 contract position on the short side of TF before the signal really came. I got clever and borrowed the signal from another contract that seem to be fulfilling first. But a minute or two later, the TF played catch-up and the stp's--which were modest at the time of entry to just above the nearby resistance level, slipped badly as price action spiked violently. By the time I was finished 'getting even' with those ugly TF stp-outs, I had given back all of a nice 10 pt profit in NQ trades...and then some. Wait for the setups to develop and the signals truly appear. In markets with such dramatic divergence and index bifurcation, there's no need to be borrowing signals, as the contracts just aren't in close enough sync of trend. Be patient. So what if you miss a few trades. That costs you no capital, and opportunities are always just around the next turn.
I'll be back next Wednesday, Apr 3. A Happy and Joyful Easter weekend to all.
Short 1 NQ 2780.5, -1.0
Short 3 NQ 2782.75, 2782.5, 2782.75, -0.0, -1.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 939.5, -0.0
Short 2 NQ 2780.0, 2787.25, +3.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 937.2, 937.1, +0.5, -0.7
Long 3 NQ 2779.9, 2779.75, +2.0, +2.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 938.9, -0.5
Short 2 TF 939.4, 939.4, +0.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 940.5, 940.6, -1.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 942.0, 942.0, -0.2, -0.2
Short 2 TF 942.0, 941.9, +0.9, +0.3
Short 1 TF 944.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 944.9, 944.8, -0.3, -0.4
Total NQ +10
Total TF -3.3
Lack of patience can work both ways. First, it can spur you out of a position early before it has had a chance to fully develop towards possible targets. But just as deadly are those trades entered too early without the trade model fully in place, because you fear 'missing' the entry. And to add to the brine, any lingering recent memories of trades you actually did miss because you were 'too' patient motivate you not to let that happen again. So, you become anxious. Today, I took a 2 contract position on the short side of TF before the signal really came. I got clever and borrowed the signal from another contract that seem to be fulfilling first. But a minute or two later, the TF played catch-up and the stp's--which were modest at the time of entry to just above the nearby resistance level, slipped badly as price action spiked violently. By the time I was finished 'getting even' with those ugly TF stp-outs, I had given back all of a nice 10 pt profit in NQ trades...and then some. Wait for the setups to develop and the signals truly appear. In markets with such dramatic divergence and index bifurcation, there's no need to be borrowing signals, as the contracts just aren't in close enough sync of trend. Be patient. So what if you miss a few trades. That costs you no capital, and opportunities are always just around the next turn.
I'll be back next Wednesday, Apr 3. A Happy and Joyful Easter weekend to all.
Tues Mar 26 Trades & Journal
20130326
Short 1 TF 947.3, -0.4
Short 2 TF 947.9, 947.8, -0.4, -0.5
Short 2 YM 14463, 14463, +3, -2
Long 1 TF 946.7, -0.4
Short 1 TF 946.3, -0.3
Long 2 TF 944.9, 945.0, +0.7, +1.3
Short 1 TF 946.9, -0.3
Long 2 TF 945.5, 945.3, +0.9, +0.5
Long 1 TF 944.1, -0.2
Long 1 NQ 2790.0, +3.0
Total YM +1
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +0.9
A few too many stp-outs again today, but none of them were outside the Trade Plan. However, I did miss two trades within the Trade Plan that should have been taken. One, I simply missed a fill, and it reversed too quickly for me to chase. That happens. But the other, I balked on talking, without anything more than a predisposition as to the trend... and that's a clear violation of the Douglas Premise. Read the Self Recognition piece from the website for more information on that the Premise, and the Premise Corollaries that keep us from making the trades we should take, and suck us into those we shouldn't. On a positive note, it's always a good thing to return to trading after an unsuccessful day and at least show a profit, if only a miniscule one. Two losing days in a row in my Trade Plan and I have to start the third day on the simulator until back in sync with profitable calls. Will be trading tomorrow as the last day in this week, returning to the markets Wednesday next. Keep to your trade plan!
Short 1 TF 947.3, -0.4
Short 2 TF 947.9, 947.8, -0.4, -0.5
Short 2 YM 14463, 14463, +3, -2
Long 1 TF 946.7, -0.4
Short 1 TF 946.3, -0.3
Long 2 TF 944.9, 945.0, +0.7, +1.3
Short 1 TF 946.9, -0.3
Long 2 TF 945.5, 945.3, +0.9, +0.5
Long 1 TF 944.1, -0.2
Long 1 NQ 2790.0, +3.0
Total YM +1
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +0.9
A few too many stp-outs again today, but none of them were outside the Trade Plan. However, I did miss two trades within the Trade Plan that should have been taken. One, I simply missed a fill, and it reversed too quickly for me to chase. That happens. But the other, I balked on talking, without anything more than a predisposition as to the trend... and that's a clear violation of the Douglas Premise. Read the Self Recognition piece from the website for more information on that the Premise, and the Premise Corollaries that keep us from making the trades we should take, and suck us into those we shouldn't. On a positive note, it's always a good thing to return to trading after an unsuccessful day and at least show a profit, if only a miniscule one. Two losing days in a row in my Trade Plan and I have to start the third day on the simulator until back in sync with profitable calls. Will be trading tomorrow as the last day in this week, returning to the markets Wednesday next. Keep to your trade plan!
Mon Mar 25 Trades & Journal
20130325
Short 2 TF 946.6, 946.9, -1.3, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 2803.25, 2803.25, -1.25, -1.25
Short 2 YM 14478, 14478, -3, -7
Short 2 TF 949.2, 949.2, -0.1, -0.1
Long 2 YM 14474, 14474, -5, -5
Total YM -20
Total NQ -2.5
Total TF -2.5
Smackdown! Just a glance at the charts today will reveal a huge volatility spike in all indices across the board. But it doesn't matter how correct my short signals were for the ensuing reversal. It only matters that I got stp'd out and lost my daily loss limit trying to get established for the trip down. Once reached, that loss limit kicks me out of real trading, and if I want to continue meeting the challenge of such a morning, I have to do it on the simulator. I love the volatility. It makes the breakout plays pop, and the inflection signals for breakdown triggers on the way down of the big collapse were sure hits and immediate payoffs... but the trading plan overrides everything, and ignoring loss limits is how many traders blow an entire week's worth of profits. Read the ebook Self Recognition from the website. The 'Accountant' will blow any amount of money trying to get back his losses. But the Trader is the Rule of Law. Live to trade another day. I'll be off and away from the markets this Thursday through next Tuesday, hopefully back by Wednesday of next week. A Joyful Easter to all.
Short 2 TF 946.6, 946.9, -1.3, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 2803.25, 2803.25, -1.25, -1.25
Short 2 YM 14478, 14478, -3, -7
Short 2 TF 949.2, 949.2, -0.1, -0.1
Long 2 YM 14474, 14474, -5, -5
Total YM -20
Total NQ -2.5
Total TF -2.5
Smackdown! Just a glance at the charts today will reveal a huge volatility spike in all indices across the board. But it doesn't matter how correct my short signals were for the ensuing reversal. It only matters that I got stp'd out and lost my daily loss limit trying to get established for the trip down. Once reached, that loss limit kicks me out of real trading, and if I want to continue meeting the challenge of such a morning, I have to do it on the simulator. I love the volatility. It makes the breakout plays pop, and the inflection signals for breakdown triggers on the way down of the big collapse were sure hits and immediate payoffs... but the trading plan overrides everything, and ignoring loss limits is how many traders blow an entire week's worth of profits. Read the ebook Self Recognition from the website. The 'Accountant' will blow any amount of money trying to get back his losses. But the Trader is the Rule of Law. Live to trade another day. I'll be off and away from the markets this Thursday through next Tuesday, hopefully back by Wednesday of next week. A Joyful Easter to all.
Fri Mar 22 Trades
Trade Summary
20130322
Short 1 TF 942.9, +1.3
Long 1 TF 941.4, +1.2
Short 1 TF 943.8, -0.3
Short 1 NQ 2785.75, +2.0
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +2.2
20130322
Short 1 TF 942.9, +1.3
Long 1 TF 941.4, +1.2
Short 1 TF 943.8, -0.3
Short 1 NQ 2785.75, +2.0
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +2.2
Thurs Mar 21 Trades
20130321
Short 1 TF 944.4, -0.3
Short 2 TF 945.1, 945.1, +0.5, -0.4
Short 1 TF 945.8, -0.0
Short 2 TF 945.4, 945.7, +0.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 941.5, +1.0
Short 1 YM 14367, -3
Short 1 YM 14379, -5
Short 1 NQ 2775.75, -1.0
Total YM -8
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +2.2
Wed Mar 20 Trades & Journal
20130320
Long 1 YM 14455, -7
Long 2 TF 945.2, 945.0, +1.4, +.5
Short 2 NQ 2800.25, 2800.00, +2.0, +1.75
Short 1 TF 946.1, +1.0
Total YM -7
Total NQ +3.75
Total TF +2.9
Pre-FOMC action is often a quiet affair leading up to the 2pm statements, but narrow range trading does not always deny profits. Serial Sequent Wave Method produces signals regardless of whether action is impulsive or corrective, and unlike Elliott Wave, makes no distinction. Trade whats in front of you, and temper your profit expectations should action prove stilted and contained. Stay disciplined. I favor the 1st frame of the day, from the Open to about 11:15am ET, because it usually produces the best volatility. Although I often return for the FOMC period for the extra volatility it usually produces, today I must be somewhere else. Good trading to all.
Long 1 YM 14455, -7
Long 2 TF 945.2, 945.0, +1.4, +.5
Short 2 NQ 2800.25, 2800.00, +2.0, +1.75
Short 1 TF 946.1, +1.0
Total YM -7
Total NQ +3.75
Total TF +2.9
Pre-FOMC action is often a quiet affair leading up to the 2pm statements, but narrow range trading does not always deny profits. Serial Sequent Wave Method produces signals regardless of whether action is impulsive or corrective, and unlike Elliott Wave, makes no distinction. Trade whats in front of you, and temper your profit expectations should action prove stilted and contained. Stay disciplined. I favor the 1st frame of the day, from the Open to about 11:15am ET, because it usually produces the best volatility. Although I often return for the FOMC period for the extra volatility it usually produces, today I must be somewhere else. Good trading to all.
Tues Mar 19 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130319
Short 2 YM 14413, 14413, +6, -0
Long 1 TF 945.1, -0.1
Short 2 TF 947.9, 947.6, +1.3, +0.4
Long 2 YM 14428, 14426, -0, -1
Long 1 NQ 2794.5, -0.25
Long 2 TF 944.2, 944.3, -0.2, -0.4
Long 2 NQ 2787.25, 2787.0, -1.25, -1.0
Long 3 TF 942.6, 942.7, 942.2, -0.0, -0.2, +0.4
Long 1 TF 942.2, +1.0
Total YM +6
Total NQ -2.5
Total TF +2.2
In trading, we don't predict. Prediction is useless. In fact, it is worse. Prediction fixes our expectations. At ValhallaFutures, we repeat the Douglas Premise almost like a mantra. "Most of the money that is lost in the markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which way the market was supposed to go." Instead of prediction, we use positioning. At certain junctures in market action, the market could be set to go either way. It's a sort of battle zone for the trend, and the best way to trade at such junctures is to let the market do the talking about where it wants to go. When discussing time cycles, such price junctures are referred to as Inversions. In terms of wave or fractal structure, such junctures are referred to as Inflections. For instance, the raw signals for a trader when some index has fallen in price to complete a wave fractal at a support zone might be 'Buy', with 'Stp n Reverse' back into shorts, should this area give way to further breakage, perhaps after a small bounce or pause pattern.
But so many breakouts fail. And nothing is more discouraging to play a breakout and get stp'd out immediately when it fails. So when constructing a trade plan, you must include appropriate filters to the Stp-n-Reverse side of the trade, filters that should require you to take certain breakouts with a high probability of success, and prevent you entering those with less likely prospects for success.
Our trading course is conducted in a continuing rotation from Lesson Session I thru 10, and then start all over again. Breakout filters are discussed frequently, and those that occurred today which produced such huge bear gains but were not part of my trading plan will come front and center in trade plan considerations, as a potential bear market rotates. Stay focused and stick to your plan. Changes to your trade plan should not be considered lightly. Remember, once committed to your plan, you will need to take those new trade concepts regardless of your opinion as to where the market is trying to go.
20130319
Short 2 YM 14413, 14413, +6, -0
Long 1 TF 945.1, -0.1
Short 2 TF 947.9, 947.6, +1.3, +0.4
Long 2 YM 14428, 14426, -0, -1
Long 1 NQ 2794.5, -0.25
Long 2 TF 944.2, 944.3, -0.2, -0.4
Long 2 NQ 2787.25, 2787.0, -1.25, -1.0
Long 3 TF 942.6, 942.7, 942.2, -0.0, -0.2, +0.4
Long 1 TF 942.2, +1.0
Total YM +6
Total NQ -2.5
Total TF +2.2
In trading, we don't predict. Prediction is useless. In fact, it is worse. Prediction fixes our expectations. At ValhallaFutures, we repeat the Douglas Premise almost like a mantra. "Most of the money that is lost in the markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which way the market was supposed to go." Instead of prediction, we use positioning. At certain junctures in market action, the market could be set to go either way. It's a sort of battle zone for the trend, and the best way to trade at such junctures is to let the market do the talking about where it wants to go. When discussing time cycles, such price junctures are referred to as Inversions. In terms of wave or fractal structure, such junctures are referred to as Inflections. For instance, the raw signals for a trader when some index has fallen in price to complete a wave fractal at a support zone might be 'Buy', with 'Stp n Reverse' back into shorts, should this area give way to further breakage, perhaps after a small bounce or pause pattern.
But so many breakouts fail. And nothing is more discouraging to play a breakout and get stp'd out immediately when it fails. So when constructing a trade plan, you must include appropriate filters to the Stp-n-Reverse side of the trade, filters that should require you to take certain breakouts with a high probability of success, and prevent you entering those with less likely prospects for success.
Our trading course is conducted in a continuing rotation from Lesson Session I thru 10, and then start all over again. Breakout filters are discussed frequently, and those that occurred today which produced such huge bear gains but were not part of my trading plan will come front and center in trade plan considerations, as a potential bear market rotates. Stay focused and stick to your plan. Changes to your trade plan should not be considered lightly. Remember, once committed to your plan, you will need to take those new trade concepts regardless of your opinion as to where the market is trying to go.
Mon Mar 18 Trades & Journal
20130318
Short 2 NQ 2776.25, 2776.0, +2.0 +3.0
Short 2 YM 14397, 14401, +6, -2
Short 2 NQ 2782.0, 2781.5, -0.25, -0.5
Short 2 TF 944.1, 943.9, +0.7, +1.5
Total NQ +4.25
Total YM +4
Total TF +2.2
Divergence and leadership can be useful for trend analysis. They can also be very tricky, especially in a market climate where rotation and froth rule action, often associated with tops. Be flexible throughout the session to shifts in leadership where what was formerly weak becomes strong and what was earlier leading becomes aggard. Trade what's in front of you. Resist the temptation for interpreting the market the way you wish it to be. Accept the outcome. Accept the day for what it is. It's offering you plenty of trade opportunity, although not perhaps in the way you expected it to be, or the way you'd like to see it. See it for what it is. Each market index segment should still fulfill a model in your trade plan before committing funds to a position. Stay disciplined. The market will tell you what it's doing if your methods have concept models that correspond. If market turns are occurring too often without a corresponding signal from your set of concepts, then your concepts and methods are yet incomplete, and you need to expand your understanding of available methods.
Short 2 NQ 2776.25, 2776.0, +2.0 +3.0
Short 2 YM 14397, 14401, +6, -2
Short 2 NQ 2782.0, 2781.5, -0.25, -0.5
Short 2 TF 944.1, 943.9, +0.7, +1.5
Total NQ +4.25
Total YM +4
Total TF +2.2
Divergence and leadership can be useful for trend analysis. They can also be very tricky, especially in a market climate where rotation and froth rule action, often associated with tops. Be flexible throughout the session to shifts in leadership where what was formerly weak becomes strong and what was earlier leading becomes aggard. Trade what's in front of you. Resist the temptation for interpreting the market the way you wish it to be. Accept the outcome. Accept the day for what it is. It's offering you plenty of trade opportunity, although not perhaps in the way you expected it to be, or the way you'd like to see it. See it for what it is. Each market index segment should still fulfill a model in your trade plan before committing funds to a position. Stay disciplined. The market will tell you what it's doing if your methods have concept models that correspond. If market turns are occurring too often without a corresponding signal from your set of concepts, then your concepts and methods are yet incomplete, and you need to expand your understanding of available methods.
Thurs Mar 14 Trades
20130314
Short 2 YM, 14441, 14441, -3, -7
Short 2 TF 043.3, 943.3, -4, -7
Short 2 TF 943.9, 943.9, -0.3, -0.3
Short 3 TF 943.8, 944.0, 944.0, +0.2, +.4, +1.0
Long 1 ES 1552.5, -0.75
Long 1 NQ 2796.5, +3.0
Short 1 TF 945.9, -0.0
Total YM -21
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +1.0
Short 2 YM, 14441, 14441, -3, -7
Short 2 TF 043.3, 943.3, -4, -7
Short 2 TF 943.9, 943.9, -0.3, -0.3
Short 3 TF 943.8, 944.0, 944.0, +0.2, +.4, +1.0
Long 1 ES 1552.5, -0.75
Long 1 NQ 2796.5, +3.0
Short 1 TF 945.9, -0.0
Total YM -21
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +1.0
Wed Mar 13 Trades & Journal
20130313
Long 2 YM 14385, 14385, -0, -0
Long 2 YM 14359, 14356, -2, +7
Long 1 TF 934.0, +0.9
Long 1 NQ 2783, +3.0
Short 1 TF 937.5, -0.2
Short 1 NQ 2795.5, +2.0
Total YM +5
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +0.7
In order to handle the emotions of trading, you need a rule for almost everything. That way, you leave little to intuition or fear when managing and entering positions. Even trailing stp-loss orders need a rule... or should I say especially stp-loss orders deserve a rule. Mine is simple, when I stick to it. When in a mini-Russell trade, for instance, I move the stp-loss to about b/e (break-even)when it moves a point in my direction. And although I desire to trail the stop to +1 if it continues on in my direction, I should not actually move the stop until it has zigzag'd higher, allowing first to be threatened by such a pullback towards my stop. But today, after entering at a perfect entry signal below the overnight low, price reacted with a great snap back up for a +1.5 favor, but still shy of an initial exit target closer to +2.0. So what did I do? Did I wait and suffer a threatening pullback to my b/e stp-loss order? If I had, I would have gotten that better target and even higher had I been a little patient. But no, I immediately moved my stp-loss up to +0.9, not wanting to give up too much of an almost target goal. ...and that's exactly all I got. Follow your rules. If you follow your rules and the rules are good, then the consequences will be better for the bottom line, even if the market doesn't cooperate all the time. Stay disciplined and your rules will remove the fear factor.
Long 2 YM 14385, 14385, -0, -0
Long 2 YM 14359, 14356, -2, +7
Long 1 TF 934.0, +0.9
Long 1 NQ 2783, +3.0
Short 1 TF 937.5, -0.2
Short 1 NQ 2795.5, +2.0
Total YM +5
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +0.7
In order to handle the emotions of trading, you need a rule for almost everything. That way, you leave little to intuition or fear when managing and entering positions. Even trailing stp-loss orders need a rule... or should I say especially stp-loss orders deserve a rule. Mine is simple, when I stick to it. When in a mini-Russell trade, for instance, I move the stp-loss to about b/e (break-even)when it moves a point in my direction. And although I desire to trail the stop to +1 if it continues on in my direction, I should not actually move the stop until it has zigzag'd higher, allowing first to be threatened by such a pullback towards my stop. But today, after entering at a perfect entry signal below the overnight low, price reacted with a great snap back up for a +1.5 favor, but still shy of an initial exit target closer to +2.0. So what did I do? Did I wait and suffer a threatening pullback to my b/e stp-loss order? If I had, I would have gotten that better target and even higher had I been a little patient. But no, I immediately moved my stp-loss up to +0.9, not wanting to give up too much of an almost target goal. ...and that's exactly all I got. Follow your rules. If you follow your rules and the rules are good, then the consequences will be better for the bottom line, even if the market doesn't cooperate all the time. Stay disciplined and your rules will remove the fear factor.
Tues Mar 12 Trades & Journal
20130312
Short 2 NQ 2802.25, 2801.5, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 938.1, 938.1, +0.5, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 2804.25, 2804.25, +2.0, +4.75
Short 1 YM 14396, -5
Short 2 TF 939.0, 939.1, +1.2, +0.5
Short 1 YM 14407, +15
Total YM +10
Total NQ +6.75
Total TF +1.5
Although the separate index contracts can tell you a lot about the trend via their divergence or convergence to a common trend, they nonetheless must be traded separately. Today was a perfect example at the highs of how each could top out at different times, and short entries taken separately as the signals occurred. Using a plan that partials out of the 1st contract in order to pay for the 2nd can keep you out of trouble when the initial leg and faux trend wants another leg up to stop out the shorts and gather in fresh longs. The net result should be about break even on entry signals that fail to produce a turn. Have patience. Stay with your plan, and when the next set of signals appear, re enter the position, using the same strategy. Eventually, the signals stick and the second contract provides a good payoff. Then when the 2nd trend direction sets in, more likely the true trend, you can measure the inflection levels where to take exit profits, and through which to re enter the shorts for greater extensions. Have a plan, and trade the plan.
Short 2 NQ 2802.25, 2801.5, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 938.1, 938.1, +0.5, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 2804.25, 2804.25, +2.0, +4.75
Short 1 YM 14396, -5
Short 2 TF 939.0, 939.1, +1.2, +0.5
Short 1 YM 14407, +15
Total YM +10
Total NQ +6.75
Total TF +1.5
Although the separate index contracts can tell you a lot about the trend via their divergence or convergence to a common trend, they nonetheless must be traded separately. Today was a perfect example at the highs of how each could top out at different times, and short entries taken separately as the signals occurred. Using a plan that partials out of the 1st contract in order to pay for the 2nd can keep you out of trouble when the initial leg and faux trend wants another leg up to stop out the shorts and gather in fresh longs. The net result should be about break even on entry signals that fail to produce a turn. Have patience. Stay with your plan, and when the next set of signals appear, re enter the position, using the same strategy. Eventually, the signals stick and the second contract provides a good payoff. Then when the 2nd trend direction sets in, more likely the true trend, you can measure the inflection levels where to take exit profits, and through which to re enter the shorts for greater extensions. Have a plan, and trade the plan.
Mon Mar 11 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130311
Short 1 TF 935.9, -0.4
Short 2 TF 936.8, 937.3, -1.0, -0.4
Short 1 TF 937.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 936.4, -0.4,
Long 1 TF 936.4, +0.7
Long 2 TF 935.7, 935.6, +0.5, +1.0
Short 2 YM 14338, 14338, -5, -5
Short 1 TF 938.2, +0.7
Total YM -10
Total TF +1.7
Using the Valhalla Futures method combines a wave structure target with a price level from the Support/Resistance Grid. But sometimes a wave will create one big swoon of a push, incongruent with its previous nearby action. When so doing, price will push through one price level for possible entry to another, and possibly putting you in and stopping you out of a trade in the process. It is not cavalier in such cases to re enter the trade at the next price level, as long as the wave structure remains in its contributing signal zone. But this type of trading can look more like revenge trading to the outsider, and may even feel like it to the Trader himself. Know your plan. If you stay within that plan and that plan allows for certain contigencies that are not subjective but instead are rule bound, then re-entering a trade you have been stp'd out of is the right thing to do. But re-working the plan in midstream to mentally justify a trade re-entry is not. Stay disciplined. Trade the plan.
20130311
Short 1 TF 935.9, -0.4
Short 2 TF 936.8, 937.3, -1.0, -0.4
Short 1 TF 937.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 936.4, -0.4,
Long 1 TF 936.4, +0.7
Long 2 TF 935.7, 935.6, +0.5, +1.0
Short 2 YM 14338, 14338, -5, -5
Short 1 TF 938.2, +0.7
Total YM -10
Total TF +1.7
Using the Valhalla Futures method combines a wave structure target with a price level from the Support/Resistance Grid. But sometimes a wave will create one big swoon of a push, incongruent with its previous nearby action. When so doing, price will push through one price level for possible entry to another, and possibly putting you in and stopping you out of a trade in the process. It is not cavalier in such cases to re enter the trade at the next price level, as long as the wave structure remains in its contributing signal zone. But this type of trading can look more like revenge trading to the outsider, and may even feel like it to the Trader himself. Know your plan. If you stay within that plan and that plan allows for certain contigencies that are not subjective but instead are rule bound, then re-entering a trade you have been stp'd out of is the right thing to do. But re-working the plan in midstream to mentally justify a trade re-entry is not. Stay disciplined. Trade the plan.
Fri Mar 8 Trades
20130308
Long 2 YM 14312, 14312, -8, -8
Long 2 TF 932.5, 932.7, +1.0, +1.4
Long 1 TF 932.3, -0.5
Long 1 TF 931.4, +1.2
Long 1 TF 931.8, +1.1
Total YM -16
Total TF +4.2
Long 2 YM 14312, 14312, -8, -8
Long 2 TF 932.5, 932.7, +1.0, +1.4
Long 1 TF 932.3, -0.5
Long 1 TF 931.4, +1.2
Long 1 TF 931.8, +1.1
Total YM -16
Total TF +4.2
Thurs Feb 7 Trades
20130307
Long 1 TF 928.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 930.0, +1.0
Short 1 TF 931.2, +1.0
Total TF +3.2
Long 1 TF 928.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 930.0, +1.0
Short 1 TF 931.2, +1.0
Total TF +3.2
Tues Feb 6 Trades
20130306
Short 1 TF 930.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 930.8, 930.7, +0.7, +0.5
Long 1 NQ 2796.5, +3.0
Short 1 YM 14283, +10
Long 1 YM 14270, -3
Long 1 YM 14265, +9
Short 1 NQ 2794.5, -0.0
Total NQ +3
Total YM +16
Total TF +0.7
Tues Mar 5 Trades & Journal
20130305
Short 1 TF 924.4, -0.3
Short 2 TF 924.3, 924.5, +0.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 922.7, -0.0
Short 3 YM 14216, 14215, 14215, +1, -2, +2
Short 1 TF 925.4, -0.7
Short 1 TF 926.0, +0.7
Short 2 NQ 2790.0, 2789.75, +2.0, -0.5
Short 1 YM 14242, -2
Short 1 TF 927.3, +0.5
Short 1 TF 928.2, -0.0
Short 2 YM 14266, 14267, +7, -2
Long 1 TF 926.9, -0.4
Total NQ +1.5
Total YM +5
Total TF +1.5
The market has a way of testing your patience against your trading plan to the very limits. Today, the big celebration in all time new Dow highs was enough to keep any trader cautious about standing in front of it until it was done. But sell signals and trade opportunities in your plan can't be ignored just because of something so subjective. Since there were no real breakout signals to jump on board with after the opening prices, my trading plan left me only with fades. A final signal to sell short in either or both the YM and the TF contracts came with very clear Trade Plan specifics, but after it retested the highs for a third time in the TF, I lost faith on it and bailed out at b/e, only to watch it fall 3 1/2 pts to support. You have to be patient, and the endurance of that patience must last past the point where the market wears most traders down. Stick with your plan. If you play simply not to lose, you won't end up winning.
Short 1 TF 924.4, -0.3
Short 2 TF 924.3, 924.5, +0.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 922.7, -0.0
Short 3 YM 14216, 14215, 14215, +1, -2, +2
Short 1 TF 925.4, -0.7
Short 1 TF 926.0, +0.7
Short 2 NQ 2790.0, 2789.75, +2.0, -0.5
Short 1 YM 14242, -2
Short 1 TF 927.3, +0.5
Short 1 TF 928.2, -0.0
Short 2 YM 14266, 14267, +7, -2
Long 1 TF 926.9, -0.4
Total NQ +1.5
Total YM +5
Total TF +1.5
The market has a way of testing your patience against your trading plan to the very limits. Today, the big celebration in all time new Dow highs was enough to keep any trader cautious about standing in front of it until it was done. But sell signals and trade opportunities in your plan can't be ignored just because of something so subjective. Since there were no real breakout signals to jump on board with after the opening prices, my trading plan left me only with fades. A final signal to sell short in either or both the YM and the TF contracts came with very clear Trade Plan specifics, but after it retested the highs for a third time in the TF, I lost faith on it and bailed out at b/e, only to watch it fall 3 1/2 pts to support. You have to be patient, and the endurance of that patience must last past the point where the market wears most traders down. Stick with your plan. If you play simply not to lose, you won't end up winning.
Mon Mar 4 Trades
20130304
Long 1 NQ 2740.75, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 2740.75, +2.0
Long 1 YM 14025, -2
Long 1 YM 14018, -0
Long 2 TF 912.1, 912.2, -0.2, +0.5
Total YM -2
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +0.3
Fri Mar 1 Trades & Journal
20130301
Short 2 TF 900.1, 900.5, -0.0 -0.0
Short 1 TF 900.6, -0.0
Long 1 TF 900.2, +0.8
Short 1 TF 904.5, -0.4
Long 1 TF 902.6, -0.7
Long 2 TF 902.0, 901.8, -0.7, -0.3
Long 2 TF 901.2, 901.1, +0.8, +1.4
Long 1 TF 906.2, +1.0
Total TF +1.9
Every day is unique. No two charts are exactly alike. And yet a trading plan can account for the conditions of a general model that repeats itself in the market place again and again. Take trading the 10am and 9:55am econ reports. This is not for the faint of heart. You must have rules that keep you from getting into trouble and making the obvious mistakes. One well known vendor of software actually advises bracketing the market just before the news is released, with the idea that the breakout can be captured by fills just as it's breaking. Ha! Just try that a few times and see what it gets you. It might look fine on paper, or in the 1-min bar charts on your desktop software, but in reality, there 's probably a huge hole where there were no fills from the moment the news broke til the tip of the spike where the news first settled. After that, price tends to pull back to at least the breakout level, but sometimes much further, sometimes returning to the original trend and then creating new prices extremes in what is actually the opposite direction that the news broke to in the initial moments. How then, can you play the news, you ask? By understanding the market is only spring loaded by the news to fulfill the course of wave patterns it was destined to do anyway. That's right. Read that one again. Efficient Market Theory is a lie. The news does not change the trend. It only fulfills it with more volatility. In order to play the news, you'll have to understand Wave Theory according to the Rules of Serial Sequent (Elliott Wave won't be much help.) You can watch Webinar #1 on the ValhallaFutures website to see some examples of pre-news plays, but to learn Serial Sequent, you'll have to enroll in our course. Once understood, you can incorporate the rules of Sequent into a trade plan that allows you to trade both before and after the news, when a Serial Sequent Wave entry would have been signalling a trade anyway.
Short 2 TF 900.1, 900.5, -0.0 -0.0
Short 1 TF 900.6, -0.0
Long 1 TF 900.2, +0.8
Short 1 TF 904.5, -0.4
Long 1 TF 902.6, -0.7
Long 2 TF 902.0, 901.8, -0.7, -0.3
Long 2 TF 901.2, 901.1, +0.8, +1.4
Long 1 TF 906.2, +1.0
Total TF +1.9
Every day is unique. No two charts are exactly alike. And yet a trading plan can account for the conditions of a general model that repeats itself in the market place again and again. Take trading the 10am and 9:55am econ reports. This is not for the faint of heart. You must have rules that keep you from getting into trouble and making the obvious mistakes. One well known vendor of software actually advises bracketing the market just before the news is released, with the idea that the breakout can be captured by fills just as it's breaking. Ha! Just try that a few times and see what it gets you. It might look fine on paper, or in the 1-min bar charts on your desktop software, but in reality, there 's probably a huge hole where there were no fills from the moment the news broke til the tip of the spike where the news first settled. After that, price tends to pull back to at least the breakout level, but sometimes much further, sometimes returning to the original trend and then creating new prices extremes in what is actually the opposite direction that the news broke to in the initial moments. How then, can you play the news, you ask? By understanding the market is only spring loaded by the news to fulfill the course of wave patterns it was destined to do anyway. That's right. Read that one again. Efficient Market Theory is a lie. The news does not change the trend. It only fulfills it with more volatility. In order to play the news, you'll have to understand Wave Theory according to the Rules of Serial Sequent (Elliott Wave won't be much help.) You can watch Webinar #1 on the ValhallaFutures website to see some examples of pre-news plays, but to learn Serial Sequent, you'll have to enroll in our course. Once understood, you can incorporate the rules of Sequent into a trade plan that allows you to trade both before and after the news, when a Serial Sequent Wave entry would have been signalling a trade anyway.
Thurs Feb 28 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130228
Short 2 YM 14080, 14080, -3, -5
Short 2 ES 1519.5, 1519.25, +2.0, +1.25
Long 1 TF 910.0, +1.3
Long 1 TF 908.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 909.6, -0.2
Total YM -8
Total ES +3.25
Total TF +2.3
Not all trade signals work out. Sometimes it's nothing more than a frothy market that knocks you out, only to confirm the signal earlier shown to spite you. Sometimes the charts don't quite fulfill a signal, and you are left standing on the platform as the train leaves the station without you. This is why you trade with a plan. This is why you consider 4 index futures contracts that behave just differently enough to spread the opportunities and signal the turns and breakouts. Stay focused. Know your trade plan and trade it with discipline, despite the temptation to tape-read the ongoing trend. Tape reading is intuition, and the most dangerous thing about it is that sometimes it actually works....
20130228
Short 2 YM 14080, 14080, -3, -5
Short 2 ES 1519.5, 1519.25, +2.0, +1.25
Long 1 TF 910.0, +1.3
Long 1 TF 908.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 909.6, -0.2
Total YM -8
Total ES +3.25
Total TF +2.3
Not all trade signals work out. Sometimes it's nothing more than a frothy market that knocks you out, only to confirm the signal earlier shown to spite you. Sometimes the charts don't quite fulfill a signal, and you are left standing on the platform as the train leaves the station without you. This is why you trade with a plan. This is why you consider 4 index futures contracts that behave just differently enough to spread the opportunities and signal the turns and breakouts. Stay focused. Know your trade plan and trade it with discipline, despite the temptation to tape-read the ongoing trend. Tape reading is intuition, and the most dangerous thing about it is that sometimes it actually works....
Wed Feb 27 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130227
Short 1 TF 901.8, -0.7
Short 2 TF 902.5, 902.3, -03, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 2716.25, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 2717.5, 2715.25, +4.5, +3.0
Short 2 NQ 2719.75, 2719.5, 2719.25, +2.0, -0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 905.5, +1.3
Long 1 TF 903.8, +1.2
Short 1 YM 13943, -7
Short 1 YM 13995, -5
Short 2 NQ 2736.5, 2736.75, +2.0, +5.5
Short 1 TF 990.5, +1.3
Total YM -12
Total NQ +14
Total TF +2.3
Welcome, the return of volatility. So glad to see it for our trading, but admit I hardly knew how to handle it as it seems like so long since its been here. The sell signals showed some good production, despite stepping into them too early for some small stp-outs. Recovery from that was important, because when the next set of sell signals appeared, you had to be ready. Today's action was frothy, and it had a Housing report and a Ben Bernanke testimony to contend with. And was only able to catch 1 in-trend play on a solid TF pullback buy signal. The NQ did offer a great inflection level breakout signal, but my focus was elsewhere, mistakenly, and for this I missed a good participation in the bull trend. Without those deep pullbacks from just the right signal places, this day would not have looked so good. When things start popping, almost inexplicably, even though the internals aren't there to explain it, you need to keep an eye on the potential inflection breakout levels. Serial Sequent provides both these, and the most likely reversal levels to short. But you have to stay disciplined and wait for the signals to appear. Since the method's signals lead not lag the market, you at least have the chance to know if the next wave up is a reversal zone or that of a breakout. Impossible really without it. Come to the free chat room and see how we roll.. but expect some real humility here when I fail to stick to the trade plan. The best tech analysis is worthless without a trade plan.
20130227
Short 1 TF 901.8, -0.7
Short 2 TF 902.5, 902.3, -03, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 2716.25, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 2717.5, 2715.25, +4.5, +3.0
Short 2 NQ 2719.75, 2719.5, 2719.25, +2.0, -0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 905.5, +1.3
Long 1 TF 903.8, +1.2
Short 1 YM 13943, -7
Short 1 YM 13995, -5
Short 2 NQ 2736.5, 2736.75, +2.0, +5.5
Short 1 TF 990.5, +1.3
Total YM -12
Total NQ +14
Total TF +2.3
Welcome, the return of volatility. So glad to see it for our trading, but admit I hardly knew how to handle it as it seems like so long since its been here. The sell signals showed some good production, despite stepping into them too early for some small stp-outs. Recovery from that was important, because when the next set of sell signals appeared, you had to be ready. Today's action was frothy, and it had a Housing report and a Ben Bernanke testimony to contend with. And was only able to catch 1 in-trend play on a solid TF pullback buy signal. The NQ did offer a great inflection level breakout signal, but my focus was elsewhere, mistakenly, and for this I missed a good participation in the bull trend. Without those deep pullbacks from just the right signal places, this day would not have looked so good. When things start popping, almost inexplicably, even though the internals aren't there to explain it, you need to keep an eye on the potential inflection breakout levels. Serial Sequent provides both these, and the most likely reversal levels to short. But you have to stay disciplined and wait for the signals to appear. Since the method's signals lead not lag the market, you at least have the chance to know if the next wave up is a reversal zone or that of a breakout. Impossible really without it. Come to the free chat room and see how we roll.. but expect some real humility here when I fail to stick to the trade plan. The best tech analysis is worthless without a trade plan.
Tues Feb 26 Trades
20130226
Short 3 YM 13857, 13863, 13864, -0, +7, -7
Short 1 NQ 2714.0, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 2715.5, -1.5
Short 2 YM 13888, 13886, +7, +20
Long 1 TF 998.4, -0.4
Long 1 TF 997.6, 997.7, +0.7, +0.4
Long 1 TF 994.6, -0.7
Long 1 TF 993.7, +1.3
Long 2 NQ 2699.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 895.5, -0.3
Total YM +27
Total NQ +0.5
Total TF +1.0
Short 3 YM 13857, 13863, 13864, -0, +7, -7
Short 1 NQ 2714.0, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 2715.5, -1.5
Short 2 YM 13888, 13886, +7, +20
Long 1 TF 998.4, -0.4
Long 1 TF 997.6, 997.7, +0.7, +0.4
Long 1 TF 994.6, -0.7
Long 1 TF 993.7, +1.3
Long 2 NQ 2699.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 895.5, -0.3
Total YM +27
Total NQ +0.5
Total TF +1.0
Mon Feb 25 Trades
20130225
Long 1 TF 916.7. -0.2
Long 1 TF 916.5, -0.3
Short 2 YM 14042, 14043, -3, -5
Short 2 NQ 2764.0, 2763.75, +3.0, +2.0
Short 2 YM 14062, 14060, +7, +20
Long 1 TF 915.1, -0.2
Long 1 YM 13019, -7
Long 2 YM 13988, 13985, -0, -3
Long 1 NQ 2744.0, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 2750.5, +2.5
Total YM +9
Total NQ +10.5
Total TF -0.7
Long 1 TF 916.7. -0.2
Long 1 TF 916.5, -0.3
Short 2 YM 14042, 14043, -3, -5
Short 2 NQ 2764.0, 2763.75, +3.0, +2.0
Short 2 YM 14062, 14060, +7, +20
Long 1 TF 915.1, -0.2
Long 1 YM 13019, -7
Long 2 YM 13988, 13985, -0, -3
Long 1 NQ 2744.0, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 2750.5, +2.5
Total YM +9
Total NQ +10.5
Total TF -0.7
Fri Feb 22 Trades
20130222
Short 1 NQ 2721.0, -2.0
Short 1 TF 910.0, -0.4
Long 1 YM 13908, -7
Long 1 ES 1504.5, +2.0
Short 2 TF 910.9, 910.9, +0.7, +0.9
Short 1 TF 909.9, -0.0
Total NQ -2.0
Total YM -7
Total TF +1.2
Short 1 NQ 2721.0, -2.0
Short 1 TF 910.0, -0.4
Long 1 YM 13908, -7
Long 1 ES 1504.5, +2.0
Short 2 TF 910.9, 910.9, +0.7, +0.9
Short 1 TF 909.9, -0.0
Total NQ -2.0
Total YM -7
Total TF +1.2
Thurs Wed 21 Trades
20130221
Short 1 NQ 2730.75, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 2723.5, +2.0
Long 2 YM 13842, 13840, -3, -5
Long 2 YM 13842, 13839, +7, -7
Long 1 TF 906.3, +1.7
Short 1 TF 910.2, -0.3
Short 1 NQ 2723.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 907.2, -0.0
Total YM -8
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +1.4
Short 1 NQ 2730.75, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 2723.5, +2.0
Long 2 YM 13842, 13840, -3, -5
Long 2 YM 13842, 13839, +7, -7
Long 1 TF 906.3, +1.7
Short 1 TF 910.2, -0.3
Short 1 NQ 2723.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 907.2, -0.0
Total YM -8
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +1.4
Wed Feb 20 Trades
20130220
Long 1 TF 928.5, +0.7
Short 1 YM 14014, -5
Short 1 NQ 2778.25, -1.25
Short 1 YM 14032, +10
Short 1 TF 927.8, -0.2
Long 1 YM 14006, -5
Short 1 TF 927.3, +0.7
Long 1 YM 13991, -5
Short 1 NQ 2769.5, -1.25
Total YM -5
Total NQ -2.5
Total T +1.2
Long 1 TF 928.5, +0.7
Short 1 YM 14014, -5
Short 1 NQ 2778.25, -1.25
Short 1 YM 14032, +10
Short 1 TF 927.8, -0.2
Long 1 YM 14006, -5
Short 1 TF 927.3, +0.7
Long 1 YM 13991, -5
Short 1 NQ 2769.5, -1.25
Total YM -5
Total NQ -2.5
Total T +1.2
Tues Feb 19 Trade & Journal
Trade Summary
20130219
Short 1 TF 924.7, -0.4
Short 4 TF 927.8, 927.9, 928.0, 928.2, -0.3, -0.3, -0.1, -0.3
Short 2 YM 13021, 13020, +10, +16
Short 1 TF 928.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 928.7, 928.3, -0.2, +0.1
Total YM +26
Total TF -2.0
If your trade plan includes entry models that can capture the early breakouts and impulse pops the futures markets often offer, you must stress the importance of being ready from the opening bell to take those signals, even if the sleepy burrs are still around the corners of your eyes... ...or you haven't had your coffee... ... or there are other pressing personal things on your mind... Trading requires complete focus. Rehearse those early plan models in your ahead. What are their criteria? Sometimes, it's an intuitive market appraisal in the early going that keeps us from executing our plan. Today, I missed the early bull breakout entry signal, which came as a 'Stop and Reverse' in my trade plan. I could feel the appraisal in my head saying "The TF is too high already. It's up in nose bleed new contract highs. How can I possibly be a buyer!?" But that was exactly what the signals were. And having missed that, I was left with the scraps of sorting out an ugly consolidation pattern, which involved more stp-outs than profits. Be ready with your entries. Your trade plan should withstand intuitive market appraisals. We're not tape readers. Tape readers can rationalize anything, whether it's staying out of a valid trade, or taking a bad one. It can always fit some market appraisal in the emotional flow of the action. We're The Trader. We have a trade plan. It's been constructed on models that work far more often than they fail. Follow the plan. Take the trade models. And if your model cannot overcome your market appraisal, then something legitimate in that market appraisal should be part of the trade model. But if it is not, then your appraisal should be ignored. Be ready. Stay disciplined.
20130219
Short 1 TF 924.7, -0.4
Short 4 TF 927.8, 927.9, 928.0, 928.2, -0.3, -0.3, -0.1, -0.3
Short 2 YM 13021, 13020, +10, +16
Short 1 TF 928.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 928.7, 928.3, -0.2, +0.1
Total YM +26
Total TF -2.0
If your trade plan includes entry models that can capture the early breakouts and impulse pops the futures markets often offer, you must stress the importance of being ready from the opening bell to take those signals, even if the sleepy burrs are still around the corners of your eyes... ...or you haven't had your coffee... ... or there are other pressing personal things on your mind... Trading requires complete focus. Rehearse those early plan models in your ahead. What are their criteria? Sometimes, it's an intuitive market appraisal in the early going that keeps us from executing our plan. Today, I missed the early bull breakout entry signal, which came as a 'Stop and Reverse' in my trade plan. I could feel the appraisal in my head saying "The TF is too high already. It's up in nose bleed new contract highs. How can I possibly be a buyer!?" But that was exactly what the signals were. And having missed that, I was left with the scraps of sorting out an ugly consolidation pattern, which involved more stp-outs than profits. Be ready with your entries. Your trade plan should withstand intuitive market appraisals. We're not tape readers. Tape readers can rationalize anything, whether it's staying out of a valid trade, or taking a bad one. It can always fit some market appraisal in the emotional flow of the action. We're The Trader. We have a trade plan. It's been constructed on models that work far more often than they fail. Follow the plan. Take the trade models. And if your model cannot overcome your market appraisal, then something legitimate in that market appraisal should be part of the trade model. But if it is not, then your appraisal should be ignored. Be ready. Stay disciplined.
Fri Feb 15 Wkly Trade Summary & Journal
20130215
Short 1 TF 923.3, +1.0
Long 1 TF 924.1, -0
Short 1 TF 924.3, +0.8
Long 1 TF 923.6, -0.3
Long 1 YM 13952, +10
Long 1 TF 922.5, +0.6
Total YM +10
Total TF +2.1
Weekly Trade Summary 20130215-20130211
Total ES -0.0
Total YM +3
Total NQ +0.25
Total TF -1.5
Managing losses has to be a key attribute for survival trading futures. Your methods won't produce all the time. Sometimes the markets just grind. And even if your trend signals are working, you can just get stp'd out repositioning for them. Incorporate behavior stp's into your plan. Limit the number of losing trades in a session, and even consider limiting the number of losing trades in a row. And above all, limit the number of losing days in a row your plan will tolerate before kicking you back to the simulator mode. If your losses remain small for the week, your capital will still be there next week. Keep to the plan. The discipline will save you.
Short 1 TF 923.3, +1.0
Long 1 TF 924.1, -0
Short 1 TF 924.3, +0.8
Long 1 TF 923.6, -0.3
Long 1 YM 13952, +10
Long 1 TF 922.5, +0.6
Total YM +10
Total TF +2.1
Weekly Trade Summary 20130215-20130211
Total ES -0.0
Total YM +3
Total NQ +0.25
Total TF -1.5
Managing losses has to be a key attribute for survival trading futures. Your methods won't produce all the time. Sometimes the markets just grind. And even if your trend signals are working, you can just get stp'd out repositioning for them. Incorporate behavior stp's into your plan. Limit the number of losing trades in a session, and even consider limiting the number of losing trades in a row. And above all, limit the number of losing days in a row your plan will tolerate before kicking you back to the simulator mode. If your losses remain small for the week, your capital will still be there next week. Keep to the plan. The discipline will save you.
Thurs Feb 14 Trades & Journal
20130214
Short 2 TF 919.4, 919.8, -0, +1.7
Short 1 YM 13942, -6
Short 1 ES 1515.0, -0.25
Short 1 ES 1515.5, +0.75
Short 1 NQ 2763.75, -0.5
Short 2 TF 920.7, 920.7, -0.2, -0.3
Short 2 NQ 2769.0, 2768.75, -0.5, -0.75
Short 2 NQ 2768.75, 2769.5, -0.5, +2.0
Short 2 TF 921.7, 921.5, +0.9, -0.3
Short 1 NQ 2768.5, +2.0
Total YM -6
Total NQ +1.5
Total TF +1.8
Opening trades were on the simulator today, with my trade plan behavior trigger of 2 losing days in a row putting me into the penalty box. Discounted the small stp-outs, and rationalized taking the last two trades with real money. The dollar amounts were not significant, but is always a bit of a stigma to shake off a losing streak, even if a short one, and get back to real trading. Without behavior triggers, I've watched traders continue to lose day after day, thinking 'I'll get it all back tomorrow'. The markets are difficult here.... although they're never easy... but this slow grinding action and contract bifurcation presents additional challenges. It is what it is. We trade with what's offered us. But if our trade plan is constructed to curtail losing trade behavior, we get 'stp'd out' of real trading and back on the simulator to execute our trade plan and monitor the market action and the trade results. Respect your capital. It's your most critical tool.
Short 2 TF 919.4, 919.8, -0, +1.7
Short 1 YM 13942, -6
Short 1 ES 1515.0, -0.25
Short 1 ES 1515.5, +0.75
Short 1 NQ 2763.75, -0.5
Short 2 TF 920.7, 920.7, -0.2, -0.3
Short 2 NQ 2769.0, 2768.75, -0.5, -0.75
Short 2 NQ 2768.75, 2769.5, -0.5, +2.0
Short 2 TF 921.7, 921.5, +0.9, -0.3
Short 1 NQ 2768.5, +2.0
Total YM -6
Total NQ +1.5
Total TF +1.8
Opening trades were on the simulator today, with my trade plan behavior trigger of 2 losing days in a row putting me into the penalty box. Discounted the small stp-outs, and rationalized taking the last two trades with real money. The dollar amounts were not significant, but is always a bit of a stigma to shake off a losing streak, even if a short one, and get back to real trading. Without behavior triggers, I've watched traders continue to lose day after day, thinking 'I'll get it all back tomorrow'. The markets are difficult here.... although they're never easy... but this slow grinding action and contract bifurcation presents additional challenges. It is what it is. We trade with what's offered us. But if our trade plan is constructed to curtail losing trade behavior, we get 'stp'd out' of real trading and back on the simulator to execute our trade plan and monitor the market action and the trade results. Respect your capital. It's your most critical tool.
Wed Feb 13 Trades & Journal
20130213
Short 1 NQ 2767.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 916.6, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 2764.25, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 2767.5, -1.75
Short 1 NQ 2774.0, -1.5
Short 1 TF 918.1, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 2780.25, -0.75
Short 2 YM 13992, 13994, -6, -1
Short 2 TF 919.9, 919.8, -0.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 919.9, 919.7, -0.2, -0.1
Long 1 TF 920.4, -0.7
Long 2 YM 13979, 13980, -3, -4
Total YM -14
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF -2.9
Another day of extreme bifurcation with the YM contract taking an unusual bear leadership role to boot. It's usually a bad bet to follow the YM to new highs or lows when such usual leaders like NQ and TF are pushing so persistently in the opposite direction. And if such leadership indicators are not variable within your trade plan, there is no reason to simply change your plan to suit your intuition about unusual market conditions. The point is that when your trade plan produces long strings of winning days, it should include a limit to your losses on days that it fails. You can cap the number of trades, the total maximum allowable losses, or even limit the number of losing trades in a row, all as a way to cut your trading off for the day. I also limit the number of losing days allowable in a row before I spend a day at simulated trades again. Today was the second losing day in a row for me, so tomorrow, I start the day on the simulator. If I can make 3 winning trades out of 5, I can turn the simulator off and go back to real trade mode. If unsuccessful to post net winning trades for the day, I use the simulator again on the day that follows until a series of winners can be established. If the market is going into a period where trade signals have become erratic or inconsistent, it's wise to keep your capital protected until things return to more normal conditions. The markets will always be there. Your capital may not....
Short 1 NQ 2767.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 916.6, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 2764.25, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 2767.5, -1.75
Short 1 NQ 2774.0, -1.5
Short 1 TF 918.1, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 2780.25, -0.75
Short 2 YM 13992, 13994, -6, -1
Short 2 TF 919.9, 919.8, -0.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 919.9, 919.7, -0.2, -0.1
Long 1 TF 920.4, -0.7
Long 2 YM 13979, 13980, -3, -4
Total YM -14
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF -2.9
Another day of extreme bifurcation with the YM contract taking an unusual bear leadership role to boot. It's usually a bad bet to follow the YM to new highs or lows when such usual leaders like NQ and TF are pushing so persistently in the opposite direction. And if such leadership indicators are not variable within your trade plan, there is no reason to simply change your plan to suit your intuition about unusual market conditions. The point is that when your trade plan produces long strings of winning days, it should include a limit to your losses on days that it fails. You can cap the number of trades, the total maximum allowable losses, or even limit the number of losing trades in a row, all as a way to cut your trading off for the day. I also limit the number of losing days allowable in a row before I spend a day at simulated trades again. Today was the second losing day in a row for me, so tomorrow, I start the day on the simulator. If I can make 3 winning trades out of 5, I can turn the simulator off and go back to real trade mode. If unsuccessful to post net winning trades for the day, I use the simulator again on the day that follows until a series of winners can be established. If the market is going into a period where trade signals have become erratic or inconsistent, it's wise to keep your capital protected until things return to more normal conditions. The markets will always be there. Your capital may not....
Tues Feb 12 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130212
Short 1 TF 912.6, -0.2
Short 2 YM 13934, 13935, -5, -5
Short 1 TF 913.5, -0.6
Short 2 TF 913.6, 913.7, -0.4, -0.2
Short 1 TF 914.2, -0.3,
Long 1 TF 914.5, -0.3
Long 1 TF 915.2, -0.2
Short 1 TF 915.2, -0.2
Short 1 NQ 2768.25, -0.75
Total NQ -0.75
Total YM -10
Total TF -2.4
You seldom learn anything from your profitable trades. Sometimes they work even when they shouldn't. Such trades often do more harm than the profit did good. What can even be more frustrating, however, is when your losing trades offer you nearly nothing to improve on. Those are both a waste of capital and your time. Sometimes the best you can learn from a day of bifurcation and drift is just to keep your losses small, and don't let them exceed more than a day's goal of profits. After entering, and price begins to go your way, move the stp's to within a few ticks of your entry. You're looking for a trading day that offers follow-through to entries in the direction of your trend. A choppy market will simply bump you out. Fine. Because if it's too choppy, you shouldn't be trading in it anyway. Call it day. The market will improve. Some lemons do not make lemonade.
20130212
Short 1 TF 912.6, -0.2
Short 2 YM 13934, 13935, -5, -5
Short 1 TF 913.5, -0.6
Short 2 TF 913.6, 913.7, -0.4, -0.2
Short 1 TF 914.2, -0.3,
Long 1 TF 914.5, -0.3
Long 1 TF 915.2, -0.2
Short 1 TF 915.2, -0.2
Short 1 NQ 2768.25, -0.75
Total NQ -0.75
Total YM -10
Total TF -2.4
You seldom learn anything from your profitable trades. Sometimes they work even when they shouldn't. Such trades often do more harm than the profit did good. What can even be more frustrating, however, is when your losing trades offer you nearly nothing to improve on. Those are both a waste of capital and your time. Sometimes the best you can learn from a day of bifurcation and drift is just to keep your losses small, and don't let them exceed more than a day's goal of profits. After entering, and price begins to go your way, move the stp's to within a few ticks of your entry. You're looking for a trading day that offers follow-through to entries in the direction of your trend. A choppy market will simply bump you out. Fine. Because if it's too choppy, you shouldn't be trading in it anyway. Call it day. The market will improve. Some lemons do not make lemonade.
Mon Feb 11 Trades
20130211
Long 3 YM 13900, 13898, 13899, +11, +8, +7
Short 1 NQ 2769.25, -0.5
Short 1 TF 909.7, -0.1
Short 1 YM 13928, -3
Total YM +23
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF -0.1
Long 3 YM 13900, 13898, 13899, +11, +8, +7
Short 1 NQ 2769.25, -0.5
Short 1 TF 909.7, -0.1
Short 1 YM 13928, -3
Total YM +23
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF -0.1
Fri Feb 8 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130208
Long 1 TF 910.1, -0.0
Short 2 NQ 2777.5, 2777.0, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 910.1, +0.9
Long 1 YM 13947, -3
Total NQ +6.0
Total YM -3
Total TF +0.9
"Be ready when the market is." Isn't that what I said yesterday, too? Well, I was ready for the market
to repeat the same thing in the same direction, but apparently wasn't ready for it to take off sharply with little hesitation this time in the opposite direction. Yes, it can be hard to be a bull when prices are up in nose-bleed new high territory. The daily frame and large bull sentiment leanings are fraught with sell signals. But you're a futures index trader. You really only care about the next few minutes. So what if the daily frame is screaming one direction. Just try to stop the market with the insistence of your sell orders before the market is actually turned. And such prognostications are useless in the lower frames anyway. Be the trader. Both the TF and the NQ gave early long entry signals today, right out of the Opening gate. But if you missed them, you were left with table scraps of large consolidation patterns. Yes, I managed to pick off a couple hundred dollars using Sequent signals around those larger patterns, but the daily profit goals would have easily been reached within the first long entry signals of the early bull spike. Be ready when the market is. They don't sound an opening bell to put you to sleep. Wake up and be the trader....
20130208
Long 1 TF 910.1, -0.0
Short 2 NQ 2777.5, 2777.0, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 910.1, +0.9
Long 1 YM 13947, -3
Total NQ +6.0
Total YM -3
Total TF +0.9
"Be ready when the market is." Isn't that what I said yesterday, too? Well, I was ready for the market
to repeat the same thing in the same direction, but apparently wasn't ready for it to take off sharply with little hesitation this time in the opposite direction. Yes, it can be hard to be a bull when prices are up in nose-bleed new high territory. The daily frame and large bull sentiment leanings are fraught with sell signals. But you're a futures index trader. You really only care about the next few minutes. So what if the daily frame is screaming one direction. Just try to stop the market with the insistence of your sell orders before the market is actually turned. And such prognostications are useless in the lower frames anyway. Be the trader. Both the TF and the NQ gave early long entry signals today, right out of the Opening gate. But if you missed them, you were left with table scraps of large consolidation patterns. Yes, I managed to pick off a couple hundred dollars using Sequent signals around those larger patterns, but the daily profit goals would have easily been reached within the first long entry signals of the early bull spike. Be ready when the market is. They don't sound an opening bell to put you to sleep. Wake up and be the trader....
Thurs Feb 7 Trades & Journal
20130207
Long 1 TF 907.9, -0.2
Short 2 NQ 2744.25, +2.0, +4.0
Short 2 YM 13883, +3, -2
Long 1 YM 13884, -5
Long 1 TF 905.9, -0.5
Long 1 TF 904.4, -0.3
Long 2 YM 13820, 13822, +13, +7
Long 1 TF 900.5, +1.3
Total NQ +6.0
Total YM +16
Total TF +0.3
You have to be ready when the market is. A big selling day has been due for weeks. And although you might be on vacation for awhile or have become mentally accustomed for the market to be a one-way trend, it never is. Be ready when the market is. Two early short signals, one in the NQ, the other the YM, positioned me for the decline. But instead of sticking with them, I didn't give the bear a chance to develop, and at the first sign of hesitant action, I dumped them. The breakdown signal for the short YM position was especially clear... except after I got in it. Then my mental game was not ready for the slow stalling beginning, and was dissatisfied when an immediate plunge did not develop. ...but it did, just minutes later. And I subsequently left the best opportunities to capture that decline on the table. Know your game plan. Know your trade models. Sometimes it's true they don't work out. But you have to give them their fair due, or what's the point in having a plan in the first place? The point is to take the mental trepidation out of the decision process. That aspect of trading is always awaiting in the background to mess with your game. You have entries. You have stops. Execute the plan. Position yourself to be surprised. Don't over-think it. Give it a chance to develop, or take your stp-outs as planned. Be the plan.... not the tape.
Long 1 TF 907.9, -0.2
Short 2 NQ 2744.25, +2.0, +4.0
Short 2 YM 13883, +3, -2
Long 1 YM 13884, -5
Long 1 TF 905.9, -0.5
Long 1 TF 904.4, -0.3
Long 2 YM 13820, 13822, +13, +7
Long 1 TF 900.5, +1.3
Total NQ +6.0
Total YM +16
Total TF +0.3
You have to be ready when the market is. A big selling day has been due for weeks. And although you might be on vacation for awhile or have become mentally accustomed for the market to be a one-way trend, it never is. Be ready when the market is. Two early short signals, one in the NQ, the other the YM, positioned me for the decline. But instead of sticking with them, I didn't give the bear a chance to develop, and at the first sign of hesitant action, I dumped them. The breakdown signal for the short YM position was especially clear... except after I got in it. Then my mental game was not ready for the slow stalling beginning, and was dissatisfied when an immediate plunge did not develop. ...but it did, just minutes later. And I subsequently left the best opportunities to capture that decline on the table. Know your game plan. Know your trade models. Sometimes it's true they don't work out. But you have to give them their fair due, or what's the point in having a plan in the first place? The point is to take the mental trepidation out of the decision process. That aspect of trading is always awaiting in the background to mess with your game. You have entries. You have stops. Execute the plan. Position yourself to be surprised. Don't over-think it. Give it a chance to develop, or take your stp-outs as planned. Be the plan.... not the tape.
Wed Feb 6 Trade Summary
20130206
Short 2 TF 903.0, 902.8, +1.2, +0.5
Short 2 YM 13894, 13898, +1, +11
Long 2 TF 902.8, 902.6, +0.5, +0.9
Total YM +12
Total TF +3.1
Short 2 TF 903.0, 902.8, +1.2, +0.5
Short 2 YM 13894, 13898, +1, +11
Long 2 TF 902.8, 902.6, +0.5, +0.9
Total YM +12
Total TF +3.1
Fri Jan 25 Trades & Journal
20130125
Long 1 TF 901.6, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 2735.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 2727.25, 2737.0, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 YM 13820, 13820, +15, +20
Short 2 NQ 2738.25, 2738.5, +3.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 901.5, -0.2
Long 1 YM 13778, +10
Long 2 NQ 2722.5, 2721.75, +0.5, +3.0
Short 1 YM 13794 -3
Short 2 TF 900.8, 900.8, +0.4, +0.5
Short 1 TF 901.5, -0.2
Total NQ +4.5
Total YM +42
Total TF +0.1
Weekly Trade Summary 20130125-20130121
Total ES -0.0
Total YM +54
Total NQ +14
Total TF +2.3
Nothing is more satisfying than trading the mini-Russell, in my opinion. And nothing attains a daily profit quota faster than a couple of successful mini-Russell trades. Today, I did better at focusing where there signals were really coming from, and consequently had a decent net day in the NQ and YM where the signals matched my trade plan. Trade what's in front of you.
Long 1 TF 901.6, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 2735.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 2727.25, 2737.0, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 YM 13820, 13820, +15, +20
Short 2 NQ 2738.25, 2738.5, +3.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 901.5, -0.2
Long 1 YM 13778, +10
Long 2 NQ 2722.5, 2721.75, +0.5, +3.0
Short 1 YM 13794 -3
Short 2 TF 900.8, 900.8, +0.4, +0.5
Short 1 TF 901.5, -0.2
Total NQ +4.5
Total YM +42
Total TF +0.1
Weekly Trade Summary 20130125-20130121
Total ES -0.0
Total YM +54
Total NQ +14
Total TF +2.3
Nothing is more satisfying than trading the mini-Russell, in my opinion. And nothing attains a daily profit quota faster than a couple of successful mini-Russell trades. Today, I did better at focusing where there signals were really coming from, and consequently had a decent net day in the NQ and YM where the signals matched my trade plan. Trade what's in front of you.
Thurs Jan 24 Trades & Journal
20130124
Short 2 NQ 2727.0, 2727.0, -0, -1.5
Short 2 YM 13768, 13768, -3, -7
Short 3 TF 901.1, 901.3, 901.2, +0.2, -0, -0.5
Short 2 YM 13796, 13797, -4, +7
Long 2 YM 13780, 13781, +5, +5
Short 2 NQ 2740.75, 2741.25, +2.0, +3.0
Short 2 YM 13811, 13809, +7, -2
Total YM +4
Total NQ +3.5
Total TF -0.3
Habits are very hard to mold. With the growing disparity in relative strength and leadership between these four contracts we trade each day, it has been more important to trade them separately. Today was one of those days where a sharp impulse rally exploded upwards shortly after a very jarring gap down NQ opening. But the signals to guy that impulse came in the NQ and the YM, not the relative strength leader TF. Such things can be a distraction and cause hesitation. And once spent, that early rally left little for trade opps than counter-trend shorts at the highs, where precise levels were harder to find. (My current trade plan quits taking trades around 11:15pm, before a fresh bear impulse trend got underway.) Stay alert. Be ready for anything. The market is most likely to surprise you, in the opposite direction to your expectations.
Wed Jan 23 Trades & Journal
20130123
Short 2 TF 896.5, 896.7, +0.6, +1.0
Short 4 YM 13709, 13710, 13710, 13710, -2, -3, -2, -2
Short 1 TF 896.4, -0.3
Long 2 TF 896.5, 896.6, +0.4, -0.0
Long 2 TF 895.3, 895.2, -0.1, +0.4
Long 2 YM 13693, 13692, +6, +11
Long 1 TF 895.0, -0.0
Total YM +8
Total TF +2.0
Another day of teeter-totter leadership, shifting first from one contract, then to another. Several times, the mini Russell seems to have turned with relative strength against the other, only to fail and get back to its original bearish trend. The Russell is often the leader. It often acts 'smart' about the eventual trend outcome. Keep your eye on that and you can't fail.... is an assumption you can't always make. Lately, it hasn't done such a great leadership job. Yesterday's persistent bullish TF was more an exception to recent trade action than the rule. But when it does shine at the job, signals can be a lot easier, and so is the trading. Trade what you see. Consider the contract models for what they are, regardless of whether one contract signal conflicts with another. Stay focused.
Short 2 TF 896.5, 896.7, +0.6, +1.0
Short 4 YM 13709, 13710, 13710, 13710, -2, -3, -2, -2
Short 1 TF 896.4, -0.3
Long 2 TF 896.5, 896.6, +0.4, -0.0
Long 2 TF 895.3, 895.2, -0.1, +0.4
Long 2 YM 13693, 13692, +6, +11
Long 1 TF 895.0, -0.0
Total YM +8
Total TF +2.0
Another day of teeter-totter leadership, shifting first from one contract, then to another. Several times, the mini Russell seems to have turned with relative strength against the other, only to fail and get back to its original bearish trend. The Russell is often the leader. It often acts 'smart' about the eventual trend outcome. Keep your eye on that and you can't fail.... is an assumption you can't always make. Lately, it hasn't done such a great leadership job. Yesterday's persistent bullish TF was more an exception to recent trade action than the rule. But when it does shine at the job, signals can be a lot easier, and so is the trading. Trade what you see. Consider the contract models for what they are, regardless of whether one contract signal conflicts with another. Stay focused.
Tues Jan 22 Trades & Journal
20130122
Short 2 NQ 2737.25, 2737.25, +2.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 890.0, -0.0
Long 2 TF 889.6, 889.4, +0.5, -0.1
Long 2 TF 888.8, 888.8, +0.4, +0.1
Short 1 TF 890.6, -0.4
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +0.5
Trade signals are always challenging when there's so much divergence between contracts. Today's NQ again weighed like a stone. But with the Dow and Russell initially buoyant, I took that profit too quickly, on the wrong leadership and relative strength assumption. The NQ was still extremely heavy when the TF buy signals came in at the LOD (low-of-day). And with another error in leadership judgement, but in the opposite direction, I left all the TF bull recovery profits on the table too. Trade the contracts separately as the signals occur. This might incur stp-outs as the contracts and their true-trend leadership roles unfold or shift, but there is no other way to handle a trade plan without doing so. Stay focused. The first day in the week requires some special efforts to gain concentration. Shake the weekend off.... the new trading week won't wait for you to become alert.
Short 2 NQ 2737.25, 2737.25, +2.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 890.0, -0.0
Long 2 TF 889.6, 889.4, +0.5, -0.1
Long 2 TF 888.8, 888.8, +0.4, +0.1
Short 1 TF 890.6, -0.4
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +0.5
Trade signals are always challenging when there's so much divergence between contracts. Today's NQ again weighed like a stone. But with the Dow and Russell initially buoyant, I took that profit too quickly, on the wrong leadership and relative strength assumption. The NQ was still extremely heavy when the TF buy signals came in at the LOD (low-of-day). And with another error in leadership judgement, but in the opposite direction, I left all the TF bull recovery profits on the table too. Trade the contracts separately as the signals occur. This might incur stp-outs as the contracts and their true-trend leadership roles unfold or shift, but there is no other way to handle a trade plan without doing so. Stay focused. The first day in the week requires some special efforts to gain concentration. Shake the weekend off.... the new trading week won't wait for you to become alert.
Thurs Jan 17 Trades & Journal
20130117
Long 1 TF 784.5, +0.9
Short 1 TF 785.6, +1.0
Short 1 YM 13507, -4
Short 1 NQ 2744.75, -1.5
Short 1 NQ 2745.25, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 2739.0, 2729.0, -1.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 884.1, +0.7
Short 1 NQ 2738.5, +2.5
Total YM -4
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +2.6
When the emotions are running high, it's hard to take multiple contracts. When a signal arrives, you just can't believe you're fading such a strong trend. When taking a breakout, you can't believe the trend will continue for you... But without taking a 2nd or 3rd unit, you can't really capitalize on the trend anyway, you just keep your losses small. It's very hard to capture the trend with a 1-lot that threatens to take back all your initial profits after a push or two in your direction. Nothing is more discouraging than giving it all back. Thus it was for me at the 1st Hour high in the NQ, today. The sell signal was valid, the buying spike stp'd me out initially, and I had to re-enter. With less confidence, I re-entered with only a 1 lot....only to watch the market fall all the way down to the LOD (low-of-day). Make your position size part of your plan. It's alright to step into a 2 or 3 lot position one-at-a-time as the potential turn develops. If it blows through you quickly, you were only in partially. But if it does stall for a few minutes, that gives you the potential to add a 2nd or 3rd and control the stop distance to just beyond the budding pattern, thus keeping the loss small on all units. If the turn fails to develop, or the breakout fails to follow-through, your losses are small. But it does little good to try to capture a trend with a 1-lot. The first lot is taken to pay for the trade, eliminate or reduce the cost of the stp-loss risk on the remaining units, and to ensure you try and walk away with at least something if a larger trend does not develop. There's no trade management or trend management with a 1-lot. There's only luck and good guesses. Have a trade management plan. It's a separate thing from your trade entry plan, which is technical or trade model oriented. Stick to that trade management plan with the same discipline you use with your trade entry plan. The plan will give you the flexibility you need to capture larger pieces of the trend.
Long 1 TF 784.5, +0.9
Short 1 TF 785.6, +1.0
Short 1 YM 13507, -4
Short 1 NQ 2744.75, -1.5
Short 1 NQ 2745.25, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 2739.0, 2729.0, -1.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 884.1, +0.7
Short 1 NQ 2738.5, +2.5
Total YM -4
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +2.6
When the emotions are running high, it's hard to take multiple contracts. When a signal arrives, you just can't believe you're fading such a strong trend. When taking a breakout, you can't believe the trend will continue for you... But without taking a 2nd or 3rd unit, you can't really capitalize on the trend anyway, you just keep your losses small. It's very hard to capture the trend with a 1-lot that threatens to take back all your initial profits after a push or two in your direction. Nothing is more discouraging than giving it all back. Thus it was for me at the 1st Hour high in the NQ, today. The sell signal was valid, the buying spike stp'd me out initially, and I had to re-enter. With less confidence, I re-entered with only a 1 lot....only to watch the market fall all the way down to the LOD (low-of-day). Make your position size part of your plan. It's alright to step into a 2 or 3 lot position one-at-a-time as the potential turn develops. If it blows through you quickly, you were only in partially. But if it does stall for a few minutes, that gives you the potential to add a 2nd or 3rd and control the stop distance to just beyond the budding pattern, thus keeping the loss small on all units. If the turn fails to develop, or the breakout fails to follow-through, your losses are small. But it does little good to try to capture a trend with a 1-lot. The first lot is taken to pay for the trade, eliminate or reduce the cost of the stp-loss risk on the remaining units, and to ensure you try and walk away with at least something if a larger trend does not develop. There's no trade management or trend management with a 1-lot. There's only luck and good guesses. Have a trade management plan. It's a separate thing from your trade entry plan, which is technical or trade model oriented. Stick to that trade management plan with the same discipline you use with your trade entry plan. The plan will give you the flexibility you need to capture larger pieces of the trend.
Wed Jan 16 Trades & Journal
20130116
Short 1 TF 879.3, -0.1
Short 1 TF 878.7, -0.6
Short 1 TF 880.2, -1.0
Short 2 TF 880.7, 880.7, +1.0, +0.8
Short 1 YM 13443, -0
Long 2 TF 878.6, 878.7, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 2726.0, -1.25
Short 2 YM 13435, 13435, -4, -4
Short 1 TF 879.8, +0.7
Long 2 NQ 2724.5, 2724.75, +2.0, +2.0
Total YM -8
Total NQ +2.75
Total TF +2.3
Some challenging whipsaws in leadership in the early going. Any of these contracts can pull a surprising big swoon as they stretch out into an impulse. One level of resistance may give way and stop you out. Some would say never go back to a losing position. But that's what strategies with auto stop-loss placements are for. They allow you to take a moment and reassess the setup. In Serial Sequent, if the wave structure is still due a reversal, and the wave has simply blown through one number to get to the next, the trade should be reentered... assuming it's in your trade plan to have taken the trade in the first place. Floor traders may be more skilled at this than most of us, but it's something that everyone needs to get use to when trading futures. Stay focused. At any stage along the way, as waves gel out their new positions and fresh numbers of support or resistance are hit, be prepared to look at the market in a freeze frame of potential setup. Your opinion about where you think it's trying to go is not important. Instead, ask yourself the question "Is this a model in my trade plan?". If so, the Trader's job is to ignore the Accountant's qualms about the loss you just took, and ignore the Analyst who tempted into predictions, and trade what's in front of you. Be the plan. That's the Trader's role. He executes the plan as agreed to, even at moments of great trepidation or fresh losses. (see the free ebook at valhallafutures.com for more about the Trader, the Accountant and the Analyst's roles.)
Short 1 TF 879.3, -0.1
Short 1 TF 878.7, -0.6
Short 1 TF 880.2, -1.0
Short 2 TF 880.7, 880.7, +1.0, +0.8
Short 1 YM 13443, -0
Long 2 TF 878.6, 878.7, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 2726.0, -1.25
Short 2 YM 13435, 13435, -4, -4
Short 1 TF 879.8, +0.7
Long 2 NQ 2724.5, 2724.75, +2.0, +2.0
Total YM -8
Total NQ +2.75
Total TF +2.3
Some challenging whipsaws in leadership in the early going. Any of these contracts can pull a surprising big swoon as they stretch out into an impulse. One level of resistance may give way and stop you out. Some would say never go back to a losing position. But that's what strategies with auto stop-loss placements are for. They allow you to take a moment and reassess the setup. In Serial Sequent, if the wave structure is still due a reversal, and the wave has simply blown through one number to get to the next, the trade should be reentered... assuming it's in your trade plan to have taken the trade in the first place. Floor traders may be more skilled at this than most of us, but it's something that everyone needs to get use to when trading futures. Stay focused. At any stage along the way, as waves gel out their new positions and fresh numbers of support or resistance are hit, be prepared to look at the market in a freeze frame of potential setup. Your opinion about where you think it's trying to go is not important. Instead, ask yourself the question "Is this a model in my trade plan?". If so, the Trader's job is to ignore the Accountant's qualms about the loss you just took, and ignore the Analyst who tempted into predictions, and trade what's in front of you. Be the plan. That's the Trader's role. He executes the plan as agreed to, even at moments of great trepidation or fresh losses. (see the free ebook at valhallafutures.com for more about the Trader, the Accountant and the Analyst's roles.)
Tues Jan 15 Trades
20130115
Long 2 YM 13414, 13412, -0, -5
Long 1 TF 875.8, +0.7
Total YM -5
Total TF +0.7
Long 2 YM 13414, 13412, -0, -5
Long 1 TF 875.8, +0.7
Total YM -5
Total TF +0.7
Mon Jan 14 Trades & Journal
20130114
Long 2 TF 877.6, 877.4, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 877.0, 976.9, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 876.5, 876.5, +0.7, -0.4
Long 3 TF 876.2, 876.3, 876.3, +1.0, +0.5, +0.5
Short 2 TF 875.6, 875.6, +0.2, -0.3
Short 1 YM 13421 -5
Short 1 TF 878.9, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 2726.5, 2726.5, +1.0, -1.25
Short 1 TF 878.9, +0.5
Total YM -5
Total NQ -0.25
Total TF +1.2
Just one big move with a signal in today's 1st frame, and it left me in the dust. Serial Sequent can require switching from a Long, to a Stp n Rev Short, and sometimes then a Turn n Rev back to long. If the market is choppy, those signals can come without much payoff; and if so, flipping the switch back and forth conflicts with the recent lessons to have more patience and let things develop. Such was the case today, and I opt'd for being more patient with the last signal and just reduced the stp loss on the last short signal in the early down trend to about b/e, but did not Turn n Rev back to long. But either position was according to plan, so no use beating oneself up too much on lack of better intuition. And after the 1st frame volatility was over, we were back to last weeks grind and divergence. But at least the action was a bit better than last week. Keep to the plan. The market will always come around.
Long 2 TF 877.6, 877.4, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 877.0, 976.9, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 876.5, 876.5, +0.7, -0.4
Long 3 TF 876.2, 876.3, 876.3, +1.0, +0.5, +0.5
Short 2 TF 875.6, 875.6, +0.2, -0.3
Short 1 YM 13421 -5
Short 1 TF 878.9, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 2726.5, 2726.5, +1.0, -1.25
Short 1 TF 878.9, +0.5
Total YM -5
Total NQ -0.25
Total TF +1.2
Just one big move with a signal in today's 1st frame, and it left me in the dust. Serial Sequent can require switching from a Long, to a Stp n Rev Short, and sometimes then a Turn n Rev back to long. If the market is choppy, those signals can come without much payoff; and if so, flipping the switch back and forth conflicts with the recent lessons to have more patience and let things develop. Such was the case today, and I opt'd for being more patient with the last signal and just reduced the stp loss on the last short signal in the early down trend to about b/e, but did not Turn n Rev back to long. But either position was according to plan, so no use beating oneself up too much on lack of better intuition. And after the 1st frame volatility was over, we were back to last weeks grind and divergence. But at least the action was a bit better than last week. Keep to the plan. The market will always come around.
Fri Jan 11 Trades & Journal
20130111
Short 1 TF 879.7, +0.8
Long 2 TF 878.9, 878.9, -0.1, -0.3
Short 1 TF 878.6, +0.5
Long 1 TF 876.9, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 2736.0, -1.25
Long 1 TF 875.9, -0.3
Long 1 TF 875.7, +0.7
Long 1 TF 875.8. -0.2
Short 1 TF 877.3, -0.3
Total NQ -1.25
Total TF +0.8
Same action as the rest of the week. The pace is slowed to a crawl. But today, I would have had a better net if my resolution to have more patience had stuck. I did at least take the signal at the early Russell inflection to go short, but the action was slow that I got out before it really developed. Same with the long at the lows. I bought the 875.7 1st hour lows 3 times, and judged the failure-to-launch as a sign of weakness... and exited all again before it finally climbed into a bull rally to go short. Each signal taken was according to plan setup models... but my patience did not fit the recent slower pace to the markets. Trade what's in front of you. Adjust to the day as it is. You can't change the markets. You can only change yourself.
Short 1 TF 879.7, +0.8
Long 2 TF 878.9, 878.9, -0.1, -0.3
Short 1 TF 878.6, +0.5
Long 1 TF 876.9, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 2736.0, -1.25
Long 1 TF 875.9, -0.3
Long 1 TF 875.7, +0.7
Long 1 TF 875.8. -0.2
Short 1 TF 877.3, -0.3
Total NQ -1.25
Total TF +0.8
Same action as the rest of the week. The pace is slowed to a crawl. But today, I would have had a better net if my resolution to have more patience had stuck. I did at least take the signal at the early Russell inflection to go short, but the action was slow that I got out before it really developed. Same with the long at the lows. I bought the 875.7 1st hour lows 3 times, and judged the failure-to-launch as a sign of weakness... and exited all again before it finally climbed into a bull rally to go short. Each signal taken was according to plan setup models... but my patience did not fit the recent slower pace to the markets. Trade what's in front of you. Adjust to the day as it is. You can't change the markets. You can only change yourself.
Thurs Jan 10 Trades & Journal
20130110
Long 2 NQ 2736.5, 2736.25, -1, +2.0
Short 1 TF 877.5, -0
Short 1 TF 877.7, +1.0
Long 1 NQ 2732.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 775.5, -0.1
Long 2 TF 874.7, 874.6, -0.2, +0.5
Long 2 YM 13325, 13325, -3, -3
Long 1 TF 874.5 874.3, -0.0, +1.0
Total YM -6
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +2.2
Tough going again, but kept with the plan and at least stayed positive. These markets are characterized by lots of retests, small bounces, and a lot of grind, punctuated by a very sharp thrust or two which signals and trade plan do not always provide for. But as they say, it is what it is, and if better trading results from such markets require adjustments on your end. No use expecting the markets to change. We have to change ourselves, and the first thing I need is a bit more patience. Keep to the plan. Stay disciplined.
Long 2 NQ 2736.5, 2736.25, -1, +2.0
Short 1 TF 877.5, -0
Short 1 TF 877.7, +1.0
Long 1 NQ 2732.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 775.5, -0.1
Long 2 TF 874.7, 874.6, -0.2, +0.5
Long 2 YM 13325, 13325, -3, -3
Long 1 TF 874.5 874.3, -0.0, +1.0
Total YM -6
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +2.2
Tough going again, but kept with the plan and at least stayed positive. These markets are characterized by lots of retests, small bounces, and a lot of grind, punctuated by a very sharp thrust or two which signals and trade plan do not always provide for. But as they say, it is what it is, and if better trading results from such markets require adjustments on your end. No use expecting the markets to change. We have to change ourselves, and the first thing I need is a bit more patience. Keep to the plan. Stay disciplined.
Wed Jan 9 Trades & Journal
20130109
Long 1 NQ 2714.75, +4.0
Short 1 YM 13332, -4
Short 2 TF 876.8, 876.8, +0.5, -0.3
Short 3 TF 876.8, 876.8, 876.9, -0.3, -0.0, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 2726.5, 2728.0, -0.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 877.5, -0.1
Long 1 ES 1457.5, -0.0
Long 1 TF 876.3, +0.5
Total ES -0
Total YM -4
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +0.8
It takes volatility to profit in futures, among other things. And if you have a method for recognizing turns, volatility can really work in your favor. The lack of volatility can affect the mental game too. You tend to give positions up too quickly when they don't respond, and you don't wait long enough for a setup to gel before getting in. Take the initial trades as the signals occur. Test the waters. Some days are better handled just keeping your powder dry for better markets. Stay disciplined. Better markets will always return.
Long 1 NQ 2714.75, +4.0
Short 1 YM 13332, -4
Short 2 TF 876.8, 876.8, +0.5, -0.3
Short 3 TF 876.8, 876.8, 876.9, -0.3, -0.0, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 2726.5, 2728.0, -0.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 877.5, -0.1
Long 1 ES 1457.5, -0.0
Long 1 TF 876.3, +0.5
Total ES -0
Total YM -4
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +0.8
It takes volatility to profit in futures, among other things. And if you have a method for recognizing turns, volatility can really work in your favor. The lack of volatility can affect the mental game too. You tend to give positions up too quickly when they don't respond, and you don't wait long enough for a setup to gel before getting in. Take the initial trades as the signals occur. Test the waters. Some days are better handled just keeping your powder dry for better markets. Stay disciplined. Better markets will always return.
Tues Jan 8 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130108
Long 2 NQ 2715.5, 2715.75, -1.0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 872.2, 871.1, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 871.8, 871.9, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 YM 13278, 13279, +8, +6
Long 2 NQ 2708.5, 2708.25, +2.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 870.6, -0.1
Long 1 TF 869.7, -0.2
Long 1 NQ 2702.75, -2.5
Long 2 TF 868.4, 868.5, +1.1, -0.3
Short 2 TF 870.7, 870.7, +0.1, -0.0
Total YM +15
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF -1.4
Breakouts can be the bane of traders. When they are working on one day, a trader can be drawn to them thereafter, only to get chopped up quickly. When you pass on them, and they work without you, you only feel more compelled by your apparent stupidity to start taking them again. But a trade plan should have rules. These rules should favor the type of breakouts that work more often than they fail. Those that do work but are outside of your plan, must simply be tolerated, despite the annoyance of your sidelined cash. And then there's your limit to the number of trades you take within a session. Mine is ten. Beyond that, and even if the losses are small, the commissions begin to be an issue. It's important to recognize when things aren't working... whether it seems to be with your executions or the plan itself doesn't seem to be in sync with the action. Keep the losses small. Tomorrow morning will be a different trading environment than today.
20130108
Long 2 NQ 2715.5, 2715.75, -1.0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 872.2, 871.1, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 871.8, 871.9, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 YM 13278, 13279, +8, +6
Long 2 NQ 2708.5, 2708.25, +2.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 870.6, -0.1
Long 1 TF 869.7, -0.2
Long 1 NQ 2702.75, -2.5
Long 2 TF 868.4, 868.5, +1.1, -0.3
Short 2 TF 870.7, 870.7, +0.1, -0.0
Total YM +15
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF -1.4
Breakouts can be the bane of traders. When they are working on one day, a trader can be drawn to them thereafter, only to get chopped up quickly. When you pass on them, and they work without you, you only feel more compelled by your apparent stupidity to start taking them again. But a trade plan should have rules. These rules should favor the type of breakouts that work more often than they fail. Those that do work but are outside of your plan, must simply be tolerated, despite the annoyance of your sidelined cash. And then there's your limit to the number of trades you take within a session. Mine is ten. Beyond that, and even if the losses are small, the commissions begin to be an issue. It's important to recognize when things aren't working... whether it seems to be with your executions or the plan itself doesn't seem to be in sync with the action. Keep the losses small. Tomorrow morning will be a different trading environment than today.
Mon Jan 7 Trades & Journal
20130107
Long 2 TF 871.6, 871.3, +0.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 872.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 872.4, -0.4
Total TF +2.1
Being uncertain on a Monday morning is not unusual, but it is a mental condition that can be anticipated. Like the way I missed the first short in the TF when it closed the gap today. I pulled the order and thought I'd give it a minute to gel.... oops. It reversed so quickly I couldn't even chase it for a fill. Be prepared. Futures trading doesn't allow you much time to consider the trade. You have to see it coming. When it arrives, you have to be there waiting for it. No hesitation allowed.
Stay focused. Be the trade....
Long 2 TF 871.6, 871.3, +0.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 872.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 872.4, -0.4
Total TF +2.1
Being uncertain on a Monday morning is not unusual, but it is a mental condition that can be anticipated. Like the way I missed the first short in the TF when it closed the gap today. I pulled the order and thought I'd give it a minute to gel.... oops. It reversed so quickly I couldn't even chase it for a fill. Be prepared. Futures trading doesn't allow you much time to consider the trade. You have to see it coming. When it arrives, you have to be there waiting for it. No hesitation allowed.
Stay focused. Be the trade....
Fri Jan 4 Trades & Journal
20130104
Long 2 NQ 2721.0, 2721.25, +2.0, +3.25
Short 1 YM 13337, -1
Short 1 YM 13340, -4
Short 1 TF 874.5, -0.1
Short 1 NQ 2726.0, +6.0
Long 1 TF 874.7, -0.4
Long 1 NQ 2714.0, -1.5
Long 1 NQ 2713.0, +3.5
Total NQ +13.25
Total TF -0.5
TF is the preferred contract in my trade plan. It tends to lead the market. But this can be inconsistent. How do you manage days the Russell isn't leading the trend? Trade what's before you. On my main monitor, from far right to left, I have the TF (mini Russell), the NQ in the middle, then the YM, and finally far left, the True Trend Momentum Indicator... all in vertical scales. (The ES seldom leads, is the least volatile, and the least attractive of these four contracts to trade. It's on a separate but adjacent monitor with some tick charts.) With the three main contracts in prime view at all times, leadership is not difficult to see. Stay flexible. The NQ and the YM are both great contracts to trade, although not as good as the TF. But your question is not which contract do you like the best, your question as a trader is
'where are my signals?' Stay focused. Trade what's in front of you.
Long 2 NQ 2721.0, 2721.25, +2.0, +3.25
Short 1 YM 13337, -1
Short 1 YM 13340, -4
Short 1 TF 874.5, -0.1
Short 1 NQ 2726.0, +6.0
Long 1 TF 874.7, -0.4
Long 1 NQ 2714.0, -1.5
Long 1 NQ 2713.0, +3.5
Total NQ +13.25
Total TF -0.5
TF is the preferred contract in my trade plan. It tends to lead the market. But this can be inconsistent. How do you manage days the Russell isn't leading the trend? Trade what's before you. On my main monitor, from far right to left, I have the TF (mini Russell), the NQ in the middle, then the YM, and finally far left, the True Trend Momentum Indicator... all in vertical scales. (The ES seldom leads, is the least volatile, and the least attractive of these four contracts to trade. It's on a separate but adjacent monitor with some tick charts.) With the three main contracts in prime view at all times, leadership is not difficult to see. Stay flexible. The NQ and the YM are both great contracts to trade, although not as good as the TF. But your question is not which contract do you like the best, your question as a trader is
'where are my signals?' Stay focused. Trade what's in front of you.
Thurs Jan 3 Trades & Journal
20130103
Long 2 TF 870.5, 870.3, -0.4, -0.3
Short 2 TF 870.2, 870.5, -0.6, -0.3
Short 2 TF 870.7, 870.5, -0.1, +0.5
Short 2 TF 872.0, 871.8, +1.0, +0.5
Long 2 NQ 2737.25, 2737.5, +2.0, +2.5
Total NQ +4.5
Total TF +0.3
Leadership is a fluid technical indicator. It complicates the trade plan if setup models use it as a condition qualifier. What if it changes or dissolves before your eyes? Such was the action today with two initial losing TF entries. Stay calm. Wait for the setups to gel. Eventually, some technical sense will be made of the trend signals and setups. Your trade plan has behavior governors that minimize your total losses and total losing trades allowable. Until that it reached, keep your powder intact until better setups appear. Sometimes a break-even day is a victory, and a small profit day is better than no profits at all. Trade the plan and stay disciplined. You'll do better tomorrow.
Long 2 TF 870.5, 870.3, -0.4, -0.3
Short 2 TF 870.2, 870.5, -0.6, -0.3
Short 2 TF 870.7, 870.5, -0.1, +0.5
Short 2 TF 872.0, 871.8, +1.0, +0.5
Long 2 NQ 2737.25, 2737.5, +2.0, +2.5
Total NQ +4.5
Total TF +0.3
Leadership is a fluid technical indicator. It complicates the trade plan if setup models use it as a condition qualifier. What if it changes or dissolves before your eyes? Such was the action today with two initial losing TF entries. Stay calm. Wait for the setups to gel. Eventually, some technical sense will be made of the trend signals and setups. Your trade plan has behavior governors that minimize your total losses and total losing trades allowable. Until that it reached, keep your powder intact until better setups appear. Sometimes a break-even day is a victory, and a small profit day is better than no profits at all. Trade the plan and stay disciplined. You'll do better tomorrow.
Wed Jan 2 Trades & Journal
20130102
Short 3 TF 869.4, 870.0, 869.9, -0. +0.5, +1.6
Long 1 TF 868.3, -0.2
Long 1 YM 13277, -5
Total YM -5
Total TF +1.9
Big gaps often suck the energy right out of the market. We were gratefully able to identify the 1st hour high and captured a decent short. But when signs appear that further signals come inbetwixt support and resistance signals, you are likely to face choppy action. Take what the market offers. It is what it is.... tomorrow is always another day...
Short 3 TF 869.4, 870.0, 869.9, -0. +0.5, +1.6
Long 1 TF 868.3, -0.2
Long 1 YM 13277, -5
Total YM -5
Total TF +1.9
Big gaps often suck the energy right out of the market. We were gratefully able to identify the 1st hour high and captured a decent short. But when signs appear that further signals come inbetwixt support and resistance signals, you are likely to face choppy action. Take what the market offers. It is what it is.... tomorrow is always another day...
Mon Dec 31 Trades
20121231
Long 1 TF 829.2, +1.0
Short 2 TF 834.3, +0.5, +0.7
Total TF +2.2
Happy New Year to all...
Long 1 TF 829.2, +1.0
Short 2 TF 834.3, +0.5, +0.7
Total TF +2.2
Happy New Year to all...
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