20131104
Long 2 TF 1098.1, 1098.1, +0.4, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 3375.5, 3375.75, +1.5, -1.5
Long 1 YM 15585, -5
Long 2 TF 1096.3, 1096.1, -0.4, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1095.3, 1095.1, +1.7, +0.5
Long 1 ES 1557.75, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3374.75, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1099.8, 1099.9, -0.4, -0.3
Short 3 TF 1100.3, 1100.3, 1100.2, +0.5, -0.2, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1100.6, +1.1
Short 2 TF 1102.3, 1102.2, +0.4, +1.3
Long 2 YM 15526, 15525, +19, +7
Long 1 TF 1099.1, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1098.3, +1.6
Total NQ -1.5
Total ES +1.0
Total YM +21
Total TF +6.2
Significant divergence, as seen today, between the usual leader TF and say the lagging ES or YM, can be challenging. But was able to keep fairly cool head today and let the signals develop separately for decent trades. Spent a good deal of time going over the Trade Plan rules for breakouts this weekend, and found myself more easily in tune with buying that TF breakout late in its bullish 1st hour spike, just by sticking to the rules regardless of the apprehensions associated with it at the time. Furthermore, was also able thereafter to flip the switch and short the TF when the top signal came in, thus catching a piece of the reversal back down. Also, can't eliminate the Fall-back aspect of daylight savings time, as with that extra hour of sleep, seemed especially well rested this morning. Let that be a hint worthy of repetition. ....
Fri Nov 1 Trades
20131101
Short 1 TF 1098.7, -0.6
Short 2 ES 1758.0, 1758.0, +1.0, -0.25
Short 1 ES 1758.25, -0.75
Short 2 YM 15564, 15565, +10, +6
Long 1 TF 1096.2, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1096.0, +1.4
Long 2 TF 1097.6, 1097.2, -0.8, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1092.5, 1092.9, +1.5, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1092.3, 1092.1, +0.5, +0.7
Total ES -0.0
Total YM +16
Total TF +2.6
Short 1 TF 1098.7, -0.6
Short 2 ES 1758.0, 1758.0, +1.0, -0.25
Short 1 ES 1758.25, -0.75
Short 2 YM 15564, 15565, +10, +6
Long 1 TF 1096.2, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1096.0, +1.4
Long 2 TF 1097.6, 1097.2, -0.8, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1092.5, 1092.9, +1.5, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1092.3, 1092.1, +0.5, +0.7
Total ES -0.0
Total YM +16
Total TF +2.6
Thurs Oct 31 Trades & Journal
20131031
Short 1 YM 15570, +12
Long 2 TF 1101.8, 1101.6, -0.6, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 3365.5, 3365.0, -2.0, +2.0
Long 2 YM 15497, +15
Long 2 YM 15504, 15501, -1, +7
Short 2 TF 1097.8, 1097.9, -0.4, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1097.8, +1.2
PM trades:
Short 1 TF 1106.9, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1102.9, 1103.1, -0.4, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1100.7, +1.0
Total YM +33
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +2.3
The trade signals were clear at the early top today, but only managed to get one contract in the YM. Instead of staying focused on getting a 2nd there, moved to the preferred TF contract which failed to complete the signal before the ensuing collapse. I was being too careful, and should have gotten that other YM. When the signal is in, take the signal and get the fills. You came here to take calculated risks. Sometimes those trades are going to fail. That's a given. But you must show commitment to the trade model. You defined with some precision for a reason. Get in the trade. Since today's selling was following a Persistent Trend Day Down, the model called for a bullish reversal. This one failed to fulfill the model requirements, and thus was left waiting for a pullback to get in longs. The final signal came as a breakout, and as it came just at the end of the 1st Frame, I allowed myself to be filtered out of that trade call altogether. It succeeded without me, but do believe that cutting off breakout signals at some point between the 1st and Midday Frames is still good business when the 1st Frame has demonstrated volatility, yin-yang. Stay with the plan. Improve the behavior. Get focused for the entries and execute.
PM Addendum:
not dissimilar results in PM to AM, in that was short near the HOD, but with only a 1 lot, and failed to capitalize on the decline with a runner as it developed deeper than expected. "Position yourself to be surprised", was a favorite saying of my mentor, Randolph Newman. In this case, however, I cannot fault myself as badly as this morning's 1-lot positioning, as I only go into the PM session for further trades if the AM has a good profit cushion, which today, I did not. Tomorrow is Friday, but will try to be fresh and prepared, as have had no losing days either this week or last.
Short 1 YM 15570, +12
Long 2 TF 1101.8, 1101.6, -0.6, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 3365.5, 3365.0, -2.0, +2.0
Long 2 YM 15497, +15
Long 2 YM 15504, 15501, -1, +7
Short 2 TF 1097.8, 1097.9, -0.4, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1097.8, +1.2
PM trades:
Short 1 TF 1106.9, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1102.9, 1103.1, -0.4, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1100.7, +1.0
Total YM +33
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +2.3
The trade signals were clear at the early top today, but only managed to get one contract in the YM. Instead of staying focused on getting a 2nd there, moved to the preferred TF contract which failed to complete the signal before the ensuing collapse. I was being too careful, and should have gotten that other YM. When the signal is in, take the signal and get the fills. You came here to take calculated risks. Sometimes those trades are going to fail. That's a given. But you must show commitment to the trade model. You defined with some precision for a reason. Get in the trade. Since today's selling was following a Persistent Trend Day Down, the model called for a bullish reversal. This one failed to fulfill the model requirements, and thus was left waiting for a pullback to get in longs. The final signal came as a breakout, and as it came just at the end of the 1st Frame, I allowed myself to be filtered out of that trade call altogether. It succeeded without me, but do believe that cutting off breakout signals at some point between the 1st and Midday Frames is still good business when the 1st Frame has demonstrated volatility, yin-yang. Stay with the plan. Improve the behavior. Get focused for the entries and execute.
PM Addendum:
not dissimilar results in PM to AM, in that was short near the HOD, but with only a 1 lot, and failed to capitalize on the decline with a runner as it developed deeper than expected. "Position yourself to be surprised", was a favorite saying of my mentor, Randolph Newman. In this case, however, I cannot fault myself as badly as this morning's 1-lot positioning, as I only go into the PM session for further trades if the AM has a good profit cushion, which today, I did not. Tomorrow is Friday, but will try to be fresh and prepared, as have had no losing days either this week or last.
Wed Oct 30 Trades & Journal
20131030
Short 2 YM 15648, 15648, +7, +25
Long 2 TF 1116.4, 1116.3, -0.4, +0.4
Long 2 TF 1113.9, 1113.9, +0.7, -0.4
Long 3 ES 1766.0, 1766.5, 1766.0, -0.5, -0.0, -0.5
Long 2 YM 15609, 15612, +7, +15
Long 1 YM 15618, +10
Long 2 TF 1113.2, 1113.0, -0.4, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1112.4, -0.4
Long 1 YM 15609, -5
Short 1 YM 15599, -1
Long 1 TF 1115.5, -0.5
Long 1 YM 15590, -1
Long 2 TF 1108.5, 1108.4, -0.7, +0.7
Long 2 YM 15590, 15589, +14, +5
Long 1 TF 1108.2, +1.0
PM trades:
Long 1 YM 15615, +20
Long 2 YM 15583, 15583, -4, -4
Long 2 TF 1102.6, 1102.4, -0.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1102.9, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1102.5, 1102.5, -0.6, -0.6
Long 2 TF 1102.2, 1102.2, -0.4, -0.4
Long 2 YM 15513, 15513, +7, +20
Total YM +115
Total ES -1.0
Total TF -1.5
Gave into several weaknesses today. The first is that I took too many trades in the AM. My excuse was that the YM signals were so good, but far less profitable than successful trades would have been in the TF, if I had made any successful trades in the TF, that is. Those were scant, but the YM success kept me coming back for more TF. And same story for the FOMC volatility in the PM session. It was if the TF and YM were trading on different days of the week, both yesterday and today, so it does complicate things, especially as my Trade Models usually assemble around a confluence of disparate technical phenomena from several contracts. Since I'm using the same event models for both contracts, when one is failing repeatedly at support/resistance/exhaustion zones, you might realize the issue has persistence, and simply avoid fresh positions in that contract for the rest of the day. But that wisdom is usually only acquired too late. I'll let this day settle on me a bit, and try to come back to its significance in the days ahead. There's something initially intangible regarding trade behavior to learn from this.... but not sure how to convey it in precise enough language yet to be of any self-help. Stay focused. Each day is different, but your Trading Plan and behavior governors do not change.
Short 2 YM 15648, 15648, +7, +25
Long 2 TF 1116.4, 1116.3, -0.4, +0.4
Long 2 TF 1113.9, 1113.9, +0.7, -0.4
Long 3 ES 1766.0, 1766.5, 1766.0, -0.5, -0.0, -0.5
Long 2 YM 15609, 15612, +7, +15
Long 1 YM 15618, +10
Long 2 TF 1113.2, 1113.0, -0.4, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1112.4, -0.4
Long 1 YM 15609, -5
Short 1 YM 15599, -1
Long 1 TF 1115.5, -0.5
Long 1 YM 15590, -1
Long 2 TF 1108.5, 1108.4, -0.7, +0.7
Long 2 YM 15590, 15589, +14, +5
Long 1 TF 1108.2, +1.0
PM trades:
Long 1 YM 15615, +20
Long 2 YM 15583, 15583, -4, -4
Long 2 TF 1102.6, 1102.4, -0.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1102.9, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1102.5, 1102.5, -0.6, -0.6
Long 2 TF 1102.2, 1102.2, -0.4, -0.4
Long 2 YM 15513, 15513, +7, +20
Total YM +115
Total ES -1.0
Total TF -1.5
Gave into several weaknesses today. The first is that I took too many trades in the AM. My excuse was that the YM signals were so good, but far less profitable than successful trades would have been in the TF, if I had made any successful trades in the TF, that is. Those were scant, but the YM success kept me coming back for more TF. And same story for the FOMC volatility in the PM session. It was if the TF and YM were trading on different days of the week, both yesterday and today, so it does complicate things, especially as my Trade Models usually assemble around a confluence of disparate technical phenomena from several contracts. Since I'm using the same event models for both contracts, when one is failing repeatedly at support/resistance/exhaustion zones, you might realize the issue has persistence, and simply avoid fresh positions in that contract for the rest of the day. But that wisdom is usually only acquired too late. I'll let this day settle on me a bit, and try to come back to its significance in the days ahead. There's something initially intangible regarding trade behavior to learn from this.... but not sure how to convey it in precise enough language yet to be of any self-help. Stay focused. Each day is different, but your Trading Plan and behavior governors do not change.
Tues Oct 29 Trades & Journal
20131029
Short 2 TF 1119.6, 1119.8, +0.7, +1.3
Long 1 TF 1117.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1117.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 3378.25, 3378.75, -1.5, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1117.9, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1118.9, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1114.6, 1114.5, +0.8, +0.7
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +5.0
The Trader can so easily fall into habitual behavior. And once in, it's like stepping into concrete. Your feet just won't let you out. With breakouts, I have a reasonable excuse; I'm still looking for the right set of filters to screen out the less-likely-to-succeed. But with position size and greater excursion, I have no real excuse--other than that of ingrained habits. The fact that I've been making a 1st Frame quota by trading 1-lot positions this past month or so only helps to dry out the cement around my feet. Today, right at the Trend Check, with an ideal entry presenting itself, I again took a 1-lot position, not out of any fear that 2 might be unsafe, but simply because I was just so comfortable selecting the 1-lot trade strategy at that moment, that I didn't even remember my commitment to work on extending my excursions. Maybe it was just he rainy day outside... Tomorrow, I'll be more committed to increasing size and excursion. Be committed to change. Discipline is an ongoing practice. Stay focused.
Short 2 TF 1119.6, 1119.8, +0.7, +1.3
Long 1 TF 1117.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1117.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 3378.25, 3378.75, -1.5, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1117.9, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1118.9, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1114.6, 1114.5, +0.8, +0.7
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +5.0
The Trader can so easily fall into habitual behavior. And once in, it's like stepping into concrete. Your feet just won't let you out. With breakouts, I have a reasonable excuse; I'm still looking for the right set of filters to screen out the less-likely-to-succeed. But with position size and greater excursion, I have no real excuse--other than that of ingrained habits. The fact that I've been making a 1st Frame quota by trading 1-lot positions this past month or so only helps to dry out the cement around my feet. Today, right at the Trend Check, with an ideal entry presenting itself, I again took a 1-lot position, not out of any fear that 2 might be unsafe, but simply because I was just so comfortable selecting the 1-lot trade strategy at that moment, that I didn't even remember my commitment to work on extending my excursions. Maybe it was just he rainy day outside... Tomorrow, I'll be more committed to increasing size and excursion. Be committed to change. Discipline is an ongoing practice. Stay focused.
Mon Oct 28 Trades & Journal
20131028
Long 1 TF 1115.0, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1116.9, +1.1
Long 2 YM 14488, 15490, -2, +7
Short 1 ES 1757.25, +0.25
Short 1 NQ 3379.25, +2.25
Long 1 TF 1115.9, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1112.8, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1111.3, 111.4, +1.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1110.1, +1.4
Total Ym +5
Total NQ +2.25
Total TF +4.7
When is a trade only worth holding for a minimum profit and when is it worth taking multiple lots and peeling them down to a runner....? Well, if I had that answer definitively, my trading would take one giant step for mankind. For instance, although I was short both the ES and the NQ near the highs of the 1st Frame today, I could not be sure enough that we had reached a final buying climax in the that early bull trend til it was well behind me, and I had already exited. In fact, the ES was producing so poorly I dumped it immediately as the NQ continued to peel off. One solution is to step out of shorts as support and structure approach, but look for stp n rev levels back to short should the apparent pullback gather enough extension to warrant the identity of a new trend. Breakouts are my weakest play. I find then so fraught with failure, that, like today, I'll pass on committing to an entry at the breakout level in anticipation of a bounce that gives me a pullback in-trend entry, rather than going with a fresh break. But the market is not always so accommodating, especially on the bear side, where once it gets the message that the trend has turned down, often leaves the station on the express train, and waits for no man. We continue to examine our breakout filters, and hope to eventually crystallize a more concrete set of parameters with which to govern trade behavior at those critical junctures. Always be a student... both of the markets, and your own trading behavior.
Long 1 TF 1115.0, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1116.9, +1.1
Long 2 YM 14488, 15490, -2, +7
Short 1 ES 1757.25, +0.25
Short 1 NQ 3379.25, +2.25
Long 1 TF 1115.9, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1112.8, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1111.3, 111.4, +1.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1110.1, +1.4
Total Ym +5
Total NQ +2.25
Total TF +4.7
When is a trade only worth holding for a minimum profit and when is it worth taking multiple lots and peeling them down to a runner....? Well, if I had that answer definitively, my trading would take one giant step for mankind. For instance, although I was short both the ES and the NQ near the highs of the 1st Frame today, I could not be sure enough that we had reached a final buying climax in the that early bull trend til it was well behind me, and I had already exited. In fact, the ES was producing so poorly I dumped it immediately as the NQ continued to peel off. One solution is to step out of shorts as support and structure approach, but look for stp n rev levels back to short should the apparent pullback gather enough extension to warrant the identity of a new trend. Breakouts are my weakest play. I find then so fraught with failure, that, like today, I'll pass on committing to an entry at the breakout level in anticipation of a bounce that gives me a pullback in-trend entry, rather than going with a fresh break. But the market is not always so accommodating, especially on the bear side, where once it gets the message that the trend has turned down, often leaves the station on the express train, and waits for no man. We continue to examine our breakout filters, and hope to eventually crystallize a more concrete set of parameters with which to govern trade behavior at those critical junctures. Always be a student... both of the markets, and your own trading behavior.
Fri Oct 25 Trades & Journal
20131025
Short 2 NQ 3382.50, 3384.5, -3.0, -1.5
Short 3 NQ 3385.2, 3386.5, 3386.25, +2.0, +3.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1117.5, +0.9
Short 2 TF 1119.6, 1119.4, +0.8, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1114.8, +1.3
Total NQ +4.5
Total TF +3.0
I've often been reminded by the day's net outcome to trading activity accomplished without a good night's sleep. This was especially evident today. But it showed up mostly in my exits. Just didn't have the heart to hold on, especially considering that the Trade Plan got us short just a few ticks from the high-of-day in the TF, and I profited so little from it. Easy to have an excuse on Friday, and glad to be off for a few days with family. All the best ....and stay focused.
Short 2 NQ 3382.50, 3384.5, -3.0, -1.5
Short 3 NQ 3385.2, 3386.5, 3386.25, +2.0, +3.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1117.5, +0.9
Short 2 TF 1119.6, 1119.4, +0.8, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1114.8, +1.3
Total NQ +4.5
Total TF +3.0
I've often been reminded by the day's net outcome to trading activity accomplished without a good night's sleep. This was especially evident today. But it showed up mostly in my exits. Just didn't have the heart to hold on, especially considering that the Trade Plan got us short just a few ticks from the high-of-day in the TF, and I profited so little from it. Easy to have an excuse on Friday, and glad to be off for a few days with family. All the best ....and stay focused.
Thurs Oct 24 Trades & Journal
20131024
Long 2 ES 1740.5, 1740.25, +2.0, +1.5
Short 2 NQ 3343.5, 3343.0, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 3344.0, 3345.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1109.6, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1112.6, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1110.9, 1110.5, +1.0, +0.7
Total ES +3.5
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +3.2
Holding onto positions to get their fuller excursions is perhaps the biggest challenge of all. The markets are so volatile, and in the 1st frame where I concentrate my entries, the whiplash action pushes you out of trades mentally often too soon. That, and finding the right breakout filters are the two areas in need of most of my focus on improvement. The issue of the right breakout filters is a work in progress in study and post-market closing time studies, and not a mental issue. Exiting too soon, that's a mental thing entirely, and is complicated by the needed confidence of taking more than one or two contracts when a trade signal appears. Will try to bring more focus into that issue in the coming days ahead, here in the journal. Stay focused.....
Long 2 ES 1740.5, 1740.25, +2.0, +1.5
Short 2 NQ 3343.5, 3343.0, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 3344.0, 3345.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1109.6, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1112.6, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1110.9, 1110.5, +1.0, +0.7
Total ES +3.5
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +3.2
Holding onto positions to get their fuller excursions is perhaps the biggest challenge of all. The markets are so volatile, and in the 1st frame where I concentrate my entries, the whiplash action pushes you out of trades mentally often too soon. That, and finding the right breakout filters are the two areas in need of most of my focus on improvement. The issue of the right breakout filters is a work in progress in study and post-market closing time studies, and not a mental issue. Exiting too soon, that's a mental thing entirely, and is complicated by the needed confidence of taking more than one or two contracts when a trade signal appears. Will try to bring more focus into that issue in the coming days ahead, here in the journal. Stay focused.....
Wed Oct 23 Trades & Journal
20131023
Long 1 NQ 3341.5, +4
Short 1 NQ 3348.25, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 3337.5, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 3334.5, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1008.5, 1008.6, -0.5, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 3339.75, 3339.75, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1007.4, +1.2
Short 2 NQ 3327.75, 3327.75, +2.0, +4.75
Total NQ +22.25
Total TF +1.2
Sometimes buy signal in one contract can come at the same time as a sell signal arrives in another. In Serial Sequent rules, the outcome can depend on which, if either, is also a stp-n-rev signal when if the raw turn signal fails. This inflection only occurs at certain junctures. You have to think fast on your feet. Today, I succeeded in going with the NQ stp n rev short signal while the TF was flashing an intial buy. I managed to bite my tongue just a minute delay in the TF buy signal to stay with the NQ short. That worked for an initial NQ short profit, but I also lost focus of the TF exhaustion zone reversal, and before I knew it, TF had reversed so sharply that it was too far to chase. But signals in the NQ continued to appear, so just stayed with it, till something clearer in the TF showed its face. Trading requires tremendous focus. Any off balance to one's mental state can affect your game tremendously. If there are other, outside issues influencing your morning, don't trade. Walk away from the screen. It doesn't matter what the numbers are tomorrow. Tomorrow is the same day, but will just different numbers. You won't miss a thing. Stay disciplined.
Long 1 NQ 3341.5, +4
Short 1 NQ 3348.25, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 3337.5, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 3334.5, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1008.5, 1008.6, -0.5, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 3339.75, 3339.75, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1007.4, +1.2
Short 2 NQ 3327.75, 3327.75, +2.0, +4.75
Total NQ +22.25
Total TF +1.2
Sometimes buy signal in one contract can come at the same time as a sell signal arrives in another. In Serial Sequent rules, the outcome can depend on which, if either, is also a stp-n-rev signal when if the raw turn signal fails. This inflection only occurs at certain junctures. You have to think fast on your feet. Today, I succeeded in going with the NQ stp n rev short signal while the TF was flashing an intial buy. I managed to bite my tongue just a minute delay in the TF buy signal to stay with the NQ short. That worked for an initial NQ short profit, but I also lost focus of the TF exhaustion zone reversal, and before I knew it, TF had reversed so sharply that it was too far to chase. But signals in the NQ continued to appear, so just stayed with it, till something clearer in the TF showed its face. Trading requires tremendous focus. Any off balance to one's mental state can affect your game tremendously. If there are other, outside issues influencing your morning, don't trade. Walk away from the screen. It doesn't matter what the numbers are tomorrow. Tomorrow is the same day, but will just different numbers. You won't miss a thing. Stay disciplined.
Tues Oct 22 Trades & Journal
20131022
Short 1 YM 15368, -10
Short 2 TF 1117.4, 1117.5, -0.5, -1.2
Short 4 TF 1118.6, 1118.6, 1118.5, 1118.6, +0.4, -0.6, +0.7, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1750.0, -1.75
Short 2 TF 1119.0, 1118.9, -0.7, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1120.1, 1120.0, 1120.2, +2.7, +1.2, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1115.1, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1113.9, 1113.9, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1113.5, 1113.5, -0.2, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1113.7, +1.4
PM trades
Short 2 TF 1113.8, 1113.7, +0.9, +0.7
Total ES -1.75
Total YM -10
Total TF +4.6
Large extensions in both directions can be challenging. A second set of sell signals kept me in the game, and were definitely fit Trade Models from the plan. But once the selling got started, didn't get a chance to re enter after taking profits. Any profit taking on shorts was too early as the drop was vertical. But hard to pass up a 3 pt profit on the 3rd contract, and would usually be a foolish move, as such a fast drop not easy to anticipate. Early exits come from playing catch up to initial losses. But it's important not to let winners that restore health go untaken. There are always more trades..... Stay focused.
Addendum:
Price and pattern reached good short entry level for an Trade Entry Model short, but I dumped the potential runner too quickly thinking, just as I had done at the AM highs, that I'd get another immediate retest to re-short with. Entries, as tough as they were today, are still far easier than exits, and that is the area in which I most need improvement.
Short 1 YM 15368, -10
Short 2 TF 1117.4, 1117.5, -0.5, -1.2
Short 4 TF 1118.6, 1118.6, 1118.5, 1118.6, +0.4, -0.6, +0.7, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1750.0, -1.75
Short 2 TF 1119.0, 1118.9, -0.7, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1120.1, 1120.0, 1120.2, +2.7, +1.2, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1115.1, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1113.9, 1113.9, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1113.5, 1113.5, -0.2, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1113.7, +1.4
PM trades
Short 2 TF 1113.8, 1113.7, +0.9, +0.7
Total ES -1.75
Total YM -10
Total TF +4.6
Large extensions in both directions can be challenging. A second set of sell signals kept me in the game, and were definitely fit Trade Models from the plan. But once the selling got started, didn't get a chance to re enter after taking profits. Any profit taking on shorts was too early as the drop was vertical. But hard to pass up a 3 pt profit on the 3rd contract, and would usually be a foolish move, as such a fast drop not easy to anticipate. Early exits come from playing catch up to initial losses. But it's important not to let winners that restore health go untaken. There are always more trades..... Stay focused.
Addendum:
Price and pattern reached good short entry level for an Trade Entry Model short, but I dumped the potential runner too quickly thinking, just as I had done at the AM highs, that I'd get another immediate retest to re-short with. Entries, as tough as they were today, are still far easier than exits, and that is the area in which I most need improvement.
Mon Oct 21 Trades & Journal
20131021
Long 2 YM 15305, 15306, +7, +10
Short 2 YM 15322, 15321, +7, -7
Short 1 TF 1115.0, -0.7
Short 2 YM 15334, 15334, +7, -4
Short 1 TF 1115.4, 1115.7, +.7, +1.5
Short 2 YM 15343, 15343, +7, +10
Short 2 YM 15329, 15329, +7, +14
Short 1 YM 15308, -6
Short 2 TF 1110.8, 1110.9, -0.0, -0.3
Total YM +52
Total TF +1.2
Breakdown trades continue to be tricky. I chose the YM because it had been the weaker up the point where breakdown levels were being reached by the TF and YM. But the TF took over bear leadership signals just a few minutes prior to that, and I ignored it. I missed the good bear trade because I had been slow to the signs of change in structure. The market is seldom logical, but it is always fair. Stay alert. Stay focused.
Long 2 YM 15305, 15306, +7, +10
Short 2 YM 15322, 15321, +7, -7
Short 1 TF 1115.0, -0.7
Short 2 YM 15334, 15334, +7, -4
Short 1 TF 1115.4, 1115.7, +.7, +1.5
Short 2 YM 15343, 15343, +7, +10
Short 2 YM 15329, 15329, +7, +14
Short 1 YM 15308, -6
Short 2 TF 1110.8, 1110.9, -0.0, -0.3
Total YM +52
Total TF +1.2
Breakdown trades continue to be tricky. I chose the YM because it had been the weaker up the point where breakdown levels were being reached by the TF and YM. But the TF took over bear leadership signals just a few minutes prior to that, and I ignored it. I missed the good bear trade because I had been slow to the signs of change in structure. The market is seldom logical, but it is always fair. Stay alert. Stay focused.
Fri Oct 18 Trades & Journal
20131018
Short 1 TF 1106.6, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1106.3, 1106.9, -1.1, -.5
Short 3 YM 15318, 15318, 15316, +7, -5, -6
Short 1 TF 1108.1, -0.9
Short 2 TF 1108.6, 1108.5, +2.1, +0.5
Short 2 YM 15318, 15318, +7, +15
Short 1 TF 1105.9, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1105.6, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1105.4, -0.6
Short 2 YM 15292, 15292, -4, -4
Short 1 TF 1106.0, -0.3
Short 2 YM 15291, 15291, -3, -3
Short 1 TF 1106.2, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1107.4, +1.0
Total YM +4
Total TF +1.8
Turning points are not always clean. Take note of extreme divergence as we saw today in a much weaker YM to NQ's relative strength. The TF can get caught in the middle, and as a result, there's a lot of whiplash at the turns. Stepping back into a trade once stopped out is ok if the signal is still there, and the whiplash can be seen as nothing but stop-threatening noise at the turns. But you also have budget limitations to obey in your plan, both to amount of risk and to number of trades. Stick with your Trade Plan. ....and enjoy your weekend...!!
Short 1 TF 1106.6, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1106.3, 1106.9, -1.1, -.5
Short 3 YM 15318, 15318, 15316, +7, -5, -6
Short 1 TF 1108.1, -0.9
Short 2 TF 1108.6, 1108.5, +2.1, +0.5
Short 2 YM 15318, 15318, +7, +15
Short 1 TF 1105.9, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1105.6, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1105.4, -0.6
Short 2 YM 15292, 15292, -4, -4
Short 1 TF 1106.0, -0.3
Short 2 YM 15291, 15291, -3, -3
Short 1 TF 1106.2, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1107.4, +1.0
Total YM +4
Total TF +1.8
Turning points are not always clean. Take note of extreme divergence as we saw today in a much weaker YM to NQ's relative strength. The TF can get caught in the middle, and as a result, there's a lot of whiplash at the turns. Stepping back into a trade once stopped out is ok if the signal is still there, and the whiplash can be seen as nothing but stop-threatening noise at the turns. But you also have budget limitations to obey in your plan, both to amount of risk and to number of trades. Stick with your Trade Plan. ....and enjoy your weekend...!!
Thur Oct 17 Trades & Journal
20131017
Short 2 YM 15219, 15220, +7, +10
Short 2 TF 1089.8, 1089.8, +1.0, +1.5
Long 2 YM 15202, 15202, +7, +15
Short 2 TF 1091.7, 1091.6, -0.2, +0.2
Total YM +39
Total TF +2.5
Most days, am grateful that breakout trades taken with such strict filters. Today was for fading new HOD's and buying the pullbacks. Those came well within Trade Plan guidelines. Stick to your Plan!
Short 2 YM 15219, 15220, +7, +10
Short 2 TF 1089.8, 1089.8, +1.0, +1.5
Long 2 YM 15202, 15202, +7, +15
Short 2 TF 1091.7, 1091.6, -0.2, +0.2
Total YM +39
Total TF +2.5
Most days, am grateful that breakout trades taken with such strict filters. Today was for fading new HOD's and buying the pullbacks. Those came well within Trade Plan guidelines. Stick to your Plan!
Wed Oct 16 Trades & Journal
20131016
Short 2 YM 15251 15249, -3, -5
Short 1 TF 1087.4, -1.4
Short 1 TF 1089.6, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1090.2, 1090.2, 1090.5, +2.0, +1.1, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1088.0, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1087.4, 1087.2, +1.2, +0.5
Total YM -8
Total TF +4.2
Breakout players have been well rewarded lately with all the bull impulse moves. Normally, these only appear a few times a month, and the rest is swing time. But these are appearing back to back and such things in the markets cause a feeling of being left out. The rest of the time, breakout players can get whacked so easily, as breakouts are prone to fail on far more days in a month--normally--than do succeed. In any case, our Trade Plan got us into sync quickly with the big swings that appeared in the TF after a 2nd exhaustion signal. We remain a student of the market, and as such, continue to examine breakout triggers in detail. The Plan is always open for improvement, but never to chase an idea that worked recently but fails most of the time. We'll continue to look at structure for breakout triggers rather than pure price, and believe the best breakout techniques are yet to be developed into Technical Event Models. Stay tuned.... and stay disciplined. !!
Short 2 YM 15251 15249, -3, -5
Short 1 TF 1087.4, -1.4
Short 1 TF 1089.6, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1090.2, 1090.2, 1090.5, +2.0, +1.1, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1088.0, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1087.4, 1087.2, +1.2, +0.5
Total YM -8
Total TF +4.2
Breakout players have been well rewarded lately with all the bull impulse moves. Normally, these only appear a few times a month, and the rest is swing time. But these are appearing back to back and such things in the markets cause a feeling of being left out. The rest of the time, breakout players can get whacked so easily, as breakouts are prone to fail on far more days in a month--normally--than do succeed. In any case, our Trade Plan got us into sync quickly with the big swings that appeared in the TF after a 2nd exhaustion signal. We remain a student of the market, and as such, continue to examine breakout triggers in detail. The Plan is always open for improvement, but never to chase an idea that worked recently but fails most of the time. We'll continue to look at structure for breakout triggers rather than pure price, and believe the best breakout techniques are yet to be developed into Technical Event Models. Stay tuned.... and stay disciplined. !!
Tues Oct 15 Trades & Journal
20131015
Long 1 YM 15163, -10
Long 2 NQ 3241.5, 3241.5, +2.0, +5.0
Short 2 YM 15174, 15174, -6, -6
Short 2 TF 1083.7, 1083.4, -0.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1083.5, 1083.5, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 3253.0, 3253.0, -1.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1084.5, 1084.8, -0.1, +1.4
Long 3 TF 1085.2, 1084.5, 1084.8, -0.0, +1.2, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1085.9, 1085.9, -0.3, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1081.2, +1.0
Total YM -22
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF+4.4
A leadership struggle means that long and short signals can come nearly on top of each other, and in the opposing trend directions. One of those leaders, however, is usually proven wrong right from the outset. Today, both were proven right, but at differing times, as if they were politely punting the ball back after 4 or more downs if unsuccessful in moving the chains the required 10 yards, or after having scored a touch down to new highs or lows. Whatever... it only makes the trades come a bit faster and requires keeping the overall trend prejudice to a squat nothing. Other than that... a walk in the park. Stay with your Plan. Your Trade Plan will keep the losses small and bring you back into sync, assuming the entry models you're using within your Plan work far more than they fail.
Long 1 YM 15163, -10
Long 2 NQ 3241.5, 3241.5, +2.0, +5.0
Short 2 YM 15174, 15174, -6, -6
Short 2 TF 1083.7, 1083.4, -0.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1083.5, 1083.5, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 3253.0, 3253.0, -1.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1084.5, 1084.8, -0.1, +1.4
Long 3 TF 1085.2, 1084.5, 1084.8, -0.0, +1.2, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1085.9, 1085.9, -0.3, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1081.2, +1.0
Total YM -22
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF+4.4
A leadership struggle means that long and short signals can come nearly on top of each other, and in the opposing trend directions. One of those leaders, however, is usually proven wrong right from the outset. Today, both were proven right, but at differing times, as if they were politely punting the ball back after 4 or more downs if unsuccessful in moving the chains the required 10 yards, or after having scored a touch down to new highs or lows. Whatever... it only makes the trades come a bit faster and requires keeping the overall trend prejudice to a squat nothing. Other than that... a walk in the park. Stay with your Plan. Your Trade Plan will keep the losses small and bring you back into sync, assuming the entry models you're using within your Plan work far more than they fail.
Mon Oct 14 Trade Summary
20131014
Long 2 TF 1076.0, 1076.0, +0.4, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1075.2, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1075.2, +1.4
Total TF +1.5
Long 2 TF 1076.0, 1076.0, +0.4, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1075.2, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1075.2, +1.4
Total TF +1.5
Fri Oct 11 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20131011
Short 1 NQ 3203.75, -1.0
Short 1 ES 1686.75, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1068.0, 1068.0, +0.5, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 3209.75, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1069.6, 1069.7, +0.4, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1070.4, 1070.5, +1.4, +0.4
Total NQ -3.0
Total ES -1.0
Total TF +5.2
Two Persistent Trend Days Up in row is very rare without some strong reversal action. So kept to the short side on resistances, and initial pullbacks were profitable. But no serious corrective selling appeared on pullbacks, except for large pullback in the YM, which I was not in. On the one hand, there's 'being right'. On the other, there's making a profit. Never confuse the two. Trade from Technical Entry Models. Define them into a Plan. Trade the Plan not your opinions. ...a good weekend to all...
20131011
Short 1 NQ 3203.75, -1.0
Short 1 ES 1686.75, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1068.0, 1068.0, +0.5, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 3209.75, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1069.6, 1069.7, +0.4, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1070.4, 1070.5, +1.4, +0.4
Total NQ -3.0
Total ES -1.0
Total TF +5.2
Two Persistent Trend Days Up in row is very rare without some strong reversal action. So kept to the short side on resistances, and initial pullbacks were profitable. But no serious corrective selling appeared on pullbacks, except for large pullback in the YM, which I was not in. On the one hand, there's 'being right'. On the other, there's making a profit. Never confuse the two. Trade from Technical Entry Models. Define them into a Plan. Trade the Plan not your opinions. ...a good weekend to all...
Thurs Oct 10 Trades & Journal
20131010
Short 2 TF 1058.1, 1058.1, +.5, -0.5
Short 2 ES 1673.25, 1673.25, -1.25, -1.25
Short 2 YM 14917, 14919, +7, +10
Long 2 NQ 3178.75, 3178.25, +3.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1060.7, -0.3
Short 1 ES 1076.0, -0.0
Short 2 NQ 3189.5, 3189.5, +2.0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1059.1, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1059.0, 1058.6, -0.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1058.0, +1.0
Total ES -2.5
Total YM +17
Total NQ +12
Total TF +0.9
Each day his its own challenges, and very large gap openings have theirs. but if you have patience, and it's not a grinding Persistent Trend, pullbacks will usually come, and with them the opportunities it takes to participate. Stay focused. Stick with your Trade Plan. There are lots of trades outside your current Trade Plan. And when they have merit, they can still be monitored as you stick to those you know and trust. Always be a student. Trade Plans should evolve slowly, and not with an idea you picked up just the other day. You have plenty of time to watch what you are still learning and observing. When you see it work for a few hundred times, then consider moving it into your Plan, but not until.
Short 2 TF 1058.1, 1058.1, +.5, -0.5
Short 2 ES 1673.25, 1673.25, -1.25, -1.25
Short 2 YM 14917, 14919, +7, +10
Long 2 NQ 3178.75, 3178.25, +3.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1060.7, -0.3
Short 1 ES 1076.0, -0.0
Short 2 NQ 3189.5, 3189.5, +2.0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1059.1, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1059.0, 1058.6, -0.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1058.0, +1.0
Total ES -2.5
Total YM +17
Total NQ +12
Total TF +0.9
Each day his its own challenges, and very large gap openings have theirs. but if you have patience, and it's not a grinding Persistent Trend, pullbacks will usually come, and with them the opportunities it takes to participate. Stay focused. Stick with your Trade Plan. There are lots of trades outside your current Trade Plan. And when they have merit, they can still be monitored as you stick to those you know and trust. Always be a student. Trade Plans should evolve slowly, and not with an idea you picked up just the other day. You have plenty of time to watch what you are still learning and observing. When you see it work for a few hundred times, then consider moving it into your Plan, but not until.
Wed Oct 9 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20131009
Long 2 TF 1042.8, 1043.0, -0.5, +0.5
Short 2 YM 14717, 14720, +10, +5
Short 2 TF 1042.8, 1043.1, +0.7, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1038.7, +1.5
Total YM +15
Total TF +3.7
Two Persistent Trend Days Down in a row are very rare, and so reversal action at lower lows fit the trading plan well for buy opps. Big swings tend to offer much better opps than vertical moves, unless of course you can catch the right breakout triggers into those vertical moves. Since so many breakouts get whipped right out of the positions quickly, the filters for breakouts are of necessity more demanding, and must eliminate the majority of potential breakout triggers from a Trade Plan. Yesterday's breakdown after the 1st Frame did offer such a trigger, but I was asleep at the switch, and should have made my last buy attempt in TF at the then current 1st hour low into a stp-n-rev short. Since the right breakout triggers are fewer and farther in between, it's easier to let the discipline necessary to stay alert for them begin to slide. Stay focused.
20131009
Long 2 TF 1042.8, 1043.0, -0.5, +0.5
Short 2 YM 14717, 14720, +10, +5
Short 2 TF 1042.8, 1043.1, +0.7, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1038.7, +1.5
Total YM +15
Total TF +3.7
Two Persistent Trend Days Down in a row are very rare, and so reversal action at lower lows fit the trading plan well for buy opps. Big swings tend to offer much better opps than vertical moves, unless of course you can catch the right breakout triggers into those vertical moves. Since so many breakouts get whipped right out of the positions quickly, the filters for breakouts are of necessity more demanding, and must eliminate the majority of potential breakout triggers from a Trade Plan. Yesterday's breakdown after the 1st Frame did offer such a trigger, but I was asleep at the switch, and should have made my last buy attempt in TF at the then current 1st hour low into a stp-n-rev short. Since the right breakout triggers are fewer and farther in between, it's easier to let the discipline necessary to stay alert for them begin to slide. Stay focused.
Tues Oct 8 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20131008
Short 2 YM 14843, 14846, -5, -10
Short 3 YM 14853, 14853, 14852, +10, +12, +5
Long 2 YM 14861, 14861, -0, -5
Long 2 YM 14848, 14844, -8, +7
Long 2 YM 14842, 14840, -7, +7
Long 2 YM 14837, 14838, -5, -5
Long 2 YM 14836, 14837, -7, -6
Long 1 YM 14834, +20
Long 3 TF 1063.5, 1062.8, 1062.7, -1.0, -0.5, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1062.0, 1061.6, -0.1, -0.6
Long 2 TF 1061.2, 1061.3, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1060.9, 1061.1, -0.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1055.5, 1055.3, -0.8, -0.5
Total YM +3
Total TF -5.8
TF relative strength was cue for the repeated buy attempts, but the real failure to caplitalize on the breakdown was lack of attention to very subtle TF pre-breakdown trigger. 1st Frame coils tend to lead to Midday Trends, and if you miss the door, price can get away from you quickly. And nothing hurts worse than big breakout profits you miss. Feels far worse even that losing trades. The overall 1st Frame coil and its subsequent breakdown deserves close study. Learn from your mistakes. Mine were pretty obvious today. But I'll be back tomorrow.....
20131008
Short 2 YM 14843, 14846, -5, -10
Short 3 YM 14853, 14853, 14852, +10, +12, +5
Long 2 YM 14861, 14861, -0, -5
Long 2 YM 14848, 14844, -8, +7
Long 2 YM 14842, 14840, -7, +7
Long 2 YM 14837, 14838, -5, -5
Long 2 YM 14836, 14837, -7, -6
Long 1 YM 14834, +20
Long 3 TF 1063.5, 1062.8, 1062.7, -1.0, -0.5, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1062.0, 1061.6, -0.1, -0.6
Long 2 TF 1061.2, 1061.3, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1060.9, 1061.1, -0.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1055.5, 1055.3, -0.8, -0.5
Total YM +3
Total TF -5.8
TF relative strength was cue for the repeated buy attempts, but the real failure to caplitalize on the breakdown was lack of attention to very subtle TF pre-breakdown trigger. 1st Frame coils tend to lead to Midday Trends, and if you miss the door, price can get away from you quickly. And nothing hurts worse than big breakout profits you miss. Feels far worse even that losing trades. The overall 1st Frame coil and its subsequent breakdown deserves close study. Learn from your mistakes. Mine were pretty obvious today. But I'll be back tomorrow.....
Mon Oct 7 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20131007
Short 2 TF 1067.0, 1067.2, -1.4, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1068.2, 1068.3, 1068.3, +2.0, +1.0, +1.0
Short 3 TF 1065.1, 1065.5, 1065.6, -0.0, -0.6, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 3226.5, -2.0
Short 3 TF 1067.3, 1067.4, 1067.2, -0.0, +0.7, -0.0
Short 3 YM 14924, 15923, 15921, +7, +20, +7
Short 3 TF 1070.0, 1070.8, 1070.9, -0.2, +1.7, +1.0
Total NQ -2.0
Total YM +34
Total TF +3.4
Trading can be a lot like boxing. You take a few hits to the face sometimes in order that you find your opponent has created an opening. Today's TF extra volatility spikes at the sell levels did just that. The first one hit me so hard it blew through default stp's on both contracts, but although a bit dazed, could see that it had simply pushed all the way to the next resistance level while still in the same signal zone. Volatility is something to be treasured, not feared. But without a methodology to interpret market structure, it can really chew you up quickly. But after being stp'd out, if the signal is still there, then re entering the trade from a flat position can be the best solution to a losing trade, and the shortest distance back to being in sync. This takes three things to accomplish. 1.), A methodology to identify structural fruition and trend pivots before they have arrived. 2.), A trade plan to accommodate this methodology and give structure to one's behavior. and 3.), self discipline to stick to the plan when emotions tell you otherwise.
20131007
Short 2 TF 1067.0, 1067.2, -1.4, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1068.2, 1068.3, 1068.3, +2.0, +1.0, +1.0
Short 3 TF 1065.1, 1065.5, 1065.6, -0.0, -0.6, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 3226.5, -2.0
Short 3 TF 1067.3, 1067.4, 1067.2, -0.0, +0.7, -0.0
Short 3 YM 14924, 15923, 15921, +7, +20, +7
Short 3 TF 1070.0, 1070.8, 1070.9, -0.2, +1.7, +1.0
Total NQ -2.0
Total YM +34
Total TF +3.4
Trading can be a lot like boxing. You take a few hits to the face sometimes in order that you find your opponent has created an opening. Today's TF extra volatility spikes at the sell levels did just that. The first one hit me so hard it blew through default stp's on both contracts, but although a bit dazed, could see that it had simply pushed all the way to the next resistance level while still in the same signal zone. Volatility is something to be treasured, not feared. But without a methodology to interpret market structure, it can really chew you up quickly. But after being stp'd out, if the signal is still there, then re entering the trade from a flat position can be the best solution to a losing trade, and the shortest distance back to being in sync. This takes three things to accomplish. 1.), A methodology to identify structural fruition and trend pivots before they have arrived. 2.), A trade plan to accommodate this methodology and give structure to one's behavior. and 3.), self discipline to stick to the plan when emotions tell you otherwise.
Fri Oct 4 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20131004
Short 2 YM 14936, 14936, -7, -7
Short 3 TF 1071.8, 1071.8, 1072.3, -0.7, -0.7, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1072.5, 1072.5, -0.5, -0,5
Short 4 YM 14951, 14951, 14951, 14950, +7, +10, +10, -0
Short 2 TF 1072.7, 1072.7, +0.7, +1.0
Short 3 YM 14952, 14951, 14951, -3, +7, -2
Short 2 TF 1072.5, 1072.6, +1.2, +0.4
Long 2 NQ 3220.75, 3221.0, -1.0, -1.25
Long 1 TF 1072.4, +1.2
Total YM +13
Total NQ -2.25
Total TF +1.8
Failed to take a critical stp n rev in YM today, and so failed to participate in the upside glory. Otherwise, stuck to the trading plan pretty close. Since the Trade Plan has some strict criteria for taking breakouts, I also missed a piece of the TF on the long side, but am not willing to change that plan criteria to accomodate that type of breakout yet. Am always looking for better refinement in the filters for taking breakouts, as the successful ones are so rewarding. But in general, the filter set also keeps me out of a lot of failing breakouts and losses. Wishing all a good weekend.
20131004
Short 2 YM 14936, 14936, -7, -7
Short 3 TF 1071.8, 1071.8, 1072.3, -0.7, -0.7, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1072.5, 1072.5, -0.5, -0,5
Short 4 YM 14951, 14951, 14951, 14950, +7, +10, +10, -0
Short 2 TF 1072.7, 1072.7, +0.7, +1.0
Short 3 YM 14952, 14951, 14951, -3, +7, -2
Short 2 TF 1072.5, 1072.6, +1.2, +0.4
Long 2 NQ 3220.75, 3221.0, -1.0, -1.25
Long 1 TF 1072.4, +1.2
Total YM +13
Total NQ -2.25
Total TF +1.8
Failed to take a critical stp n rev in YM today, and so failed to participate in the upside glory. Otherwise, stuck to the trading plan pretty close. Since the Trade Plan has some strict criteria for taking breakouts, I also missed a piece of the TF on the long side, but am not willing to change that plan criteria to accomodate that type of breakout yet. Am always looking for better refinement in the filters for taking breakouts, as the successful ones are so rewarding. But in general, the filter set also keeps me out of a lot of failing breakouts and losses. Wishing all a good weekend.
Thurs Oct 3 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20131003
Long 2 YM 14969, 14969, -10, -10
Long 2 TF 1071.1, 1071.2, +0.5, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 3225.75, 3226.25, +2.0, -0.25
Long 2 YM 14946, 14946, +5, +15
Long 2 TF 1065.1, 1065.0, +1.1, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1065.1, 1064.7, -0.2, +1.6
Long 1 TF 1064.7, +1.2
PM Trades:
Long 2 TF 1064.9, 1064.7, +2.0, +0.5
Total YM -0
Total NQ +1.75
Total TF +6.7
Although Serial Sequent Method allows for stp n rev at potential reversal levels, my Trade Plan filters those out when in the first trend direction of the day. On days when initial trend is vertical plummet, like today, that filter prevents me from participating in a big initial move. These big vertical moves have a lasting impression on the trader's psyche. He wants to for this action every day. But these days are not the norm. Test-n-Reject and swing reversals are greater percentage of Day Models. Thankfully, today's big initial trend had some great reversals and pullbacks and key Grid levels, so missing the short side initially did not preclude finding other opportunities. Stay focused. When Momentum, Wave Structure, Time Markers and Price Grid collide at the same time, there is little time for hesitation. These often come at the most emotionally challenging moments. Stay disciplined.
20131003
Long 2 YM 14969, 14969, -10, -10
Long 2 TF 1071.1, 1071.2, +0.5, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 3225.75, 3226.25, +2.0, -0.25
Long 2 YM 14946, 14946, +5, +15
Long 2 TF 1065.1, 1065.0, +1.1, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1065.1, 1064.7, -0.2, +1.6
Long 1 TF 1064.7, +1.2
PM Trades:
Long 2 TF 1064.9, 1064.7, +2.0, +0.5
Total YM -0
Total NQ +1.75
Total TF +6.7
Although Serial Sequent Method allows for stp n rev at potential reversal levels, my Trade Plan filters those out when in the first trend direction of the day. On days when initial trend is vertical plummet, like today, that filter prevents me from participating in a big initial move. These big vertical moves have a lasting impression on the trader's psyche. He wants to for this action every day. But these days are not the norm. Test-n-Reject and swing reversals are greater percentage of Day Models. Thankfully, today's big initial trend had some great reversals and pullbacks and key Grid levels, so missing the short side initially did not preclude finding other opportunities. Stay focused. When Momentum, Wave Structure, Time Markers and Price Grid collide at the same time, there is little time for hesitation. These often come at the most emotionally challenging moments. Stay disciplined.
Tues Oct 2 Trades & Journal
20131002
Long 3 TF 1074.3, 1074.2, 1073.8, +0.5, +0.7, +1.0
Total TF +2.2
Don't trade when you haven't had a good nights sleep. You're going to be worthless....or worse. Today, I got lucky. The mistakes I made were in missing several trade entry signals because I hesitated too long. ...and the market seemed about as tired as I was .... your health is an integral part of your success as a trader. Take care of it...
Long 3 TF 1074.3, 1074.2, 1073.8, +0.5, +0.7, +1.0
Total TF +2.2
Don't trade when you haven't had a good nights sleep. You're going to be worthless....or worse. Today, I got lucky. The mistakes I made were in missing several trade entry signals because I hesitated too long. ...and the market seemed about as tired as I was .... your health is an integral part of your success as a trader. Take care of it...
Tues Oct 1 Trades & Journal
20131001
Short 2 TF 1075.7, 1075.8, -0.5, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1076.7, 1077.0, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1074.0, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1077.5, +0.8
Long 1 TF 1075.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1076.8, 1076.7, -0.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1077.7, 1077.5, -0.4, +0.3
Short 3 TF 1077.7, 1077.7, 1077.7, +0.7, +0.5, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1078.7, 1078.7, +0.1, +0.9
Total TF +3.8
Bull trends usually have pullbacks. Today's early pullbacks, like yesterday's, came after the initial short signal in the NQ and ES, and required some focus apart from the TF. This time, the TF was also flashing a buy signal just a minute or so in front of the 10:00am econ reports. That provided the perfect background, so long as a premium accrued before the last 15 secs of the countdown. A 2nd unit would have been required to see the position through to the new HOD, and whether to take a 2nd is often left to an appraisal of conditions rather than a strict rule of the Trade Plan. ...or this simply might be a weakness in self discipline. That aspect has always been a point of interest in Trade Plan development, but so far, I've come to no solution. Since I favor taking a 2nd unit as price forms a base or a top against some predetermined support / exhaustion number, getting a 2nd is much harder if price vacates that area on price rejection quickly, without a bit of bouncing around. ...food for more thought...
Short 2 TF 1075.7, 1075.8, -0.5, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1076.7, 1077.0, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1074.0, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1077.5, +0.8
Long 1 TF 1075.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1076.8, 1076.7, -0.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1077.7, 1077.5, -0.4, +0.3
Short 3 TF 1077.7, 1077.7, 1077.7, +0.7, +0.5, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1078.7, 1078.7, +0.1, +0.9
Total TF +3.8
Bull trends usually have pullbacks. Today's early pullbacks, like yesterday's, came after the initial short signal in the NQ and ES, and required some focus apart from the TF. This time, the TF was also flashing a buy signal just a minute or so in front of the 10:00am econ reports. That provided the perfect background, so long as a premium accrued before the last 15 secs of the countdown. A 2nd unit would have been required to see the position through to the new HOD, and whether to take a 2nd is often left to an appraisal of conditions rather than a strict rule of the Trade Plan. ...or this simply might be a weakness in self discipline. That aspect has always been a point of interest in Trade Plan development, but so far, I've come to no solution. Since I favor taking a 2nd unit as price forms a base or a top against some predetermined support / exhaustion number, getting a 2nd is much harder if price vacates that area on price rejection quickly, without a bit of bouncing around. ...food for more thought...
Mon Sep 30 Trades & Journal
20130930
Short 1 TF 1061.7, -0.5,
Short 2 TF 1063.0, 1063.0, -0.6, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1063.0, 1063.0, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1061.0, 1061.0, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3202.15, -0.25
Short 2 NQ 3205, 3205.0, -1.0, -1.0
Short 2 YM 15065, 15065, -4, -4
Short 2 TF 1063.9, 1064.2, +0.5, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1064.9, 1065.3, +1.4, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 3212.5, 3212.5, -1.5, -0.75
Short 1 TF 1067.3, -0.7
PM trades:
Short 3 TF 1072.9, 1073.0, 1073.8, -0, -0. +1.3
Total NQ -4.5
Total YM -8
Total TF +5.3
The internals looked so poor at the opening, they should have been regarded as good, especially the -1041 tick reading. Any 1000 tick reading rare these days, and should be regarded as initial exhaustion. The initlal shorts into the first spike up were nonetheless the Trade Model calls, and showed good profits, but my entries were impatient, and I failed to wait to a solid resistance number, forcing me to re enter from stop-outs. Be patient, wait til all elements of the model appear, then act decisively. Thereafter, the buy signal in the TF was valid, but with the 2nd buy signals failing to fill, I should have switched over to the YM or NQ in order to participate with the main rally thrust. Without a timely pullback buy entry, you are left fading the extremes of the breakouts, which are counter trend. And those must be timed fairly precisely. Today, fading paid off in the TF because pullbacks were deep enough for profits. Stay focused. Trade within the Plan.
Short 1 TF 1061.7, -0.5,
Short 2 TF 1063.0, 1063.0, -0.6, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1063.0, 1063.0, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1061.0, 1061.0, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3202.15, -0.25
Short 2 NQ 3205, 3205.0, -1.0, -1.0
Short 2 YM 15065, 15065, -4, -4
Short 2 TF 1063.9, 1064.2, +0.5, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1064.9, 1065.3, +1.4, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 3212.5, 3212.5, -1.5, -0.75
Short 1 TF 1067.3, -0.7
PM trades:
Short 3 TF 1072.9, 1073.0, 1073.8, -0, -0. +1.3
Total NQ -4.5
Total YM -8
Total TF +5.3
The internals looked so poor at the opening, they should have been regarded as good, especially the -1041 tick reading. Any 1000 tick reading rare these days, and should be regarded as initial exhaustion. The initlal shorts into the first spike up were nonetheless the Trade Model calls, and showed good profits, but my entries were impatient, and I failed to wait to a solid resistance number, forcing me to re enter from stop-outs. Be patient, wait til all elements of the model appear, then act decisively. Thereafter, the buy signal in the TF was valid, but with the 2nd buy signals failing to fill, I should have switched over to the YM or NQ in order to participate with the main rally thrust. Without a timely pullback buy entry, you are left fading the extremes of the breakouts, which are counter trend. And those must be timed fairly precisely. Today, fading paid off in the TF because pullbacks were deep enough for profits. Stay focused. Trade within the Plan.
Fri Sep 27 Trades & Journal
20130927
Long 1 TF 1069.8, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1069.8, 1069.8, +0.5, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1068.7, 1068.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1068.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1069.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1068.4, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1072.0, -0.1
Short 1 NQ 3219.75, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1075.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1075.6, 1075.5, +0.5, +1.2
Total NQ -1.5
Total TF +4.2
Trading early in the first frame requires close attention. Signals appear rapidly, and of late, action is volatile,
even though contained in a tight coil pattern. Be ready to act. When the signal comes, act decisively. No hesitation allowed. This is the business of trading in the 1st Frame. ...a good weekend to all....
Long 1 TF 1069.8, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1069.8, 1069.8, +0.5, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1068.7, 1068.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1068.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1069.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1068.4, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1072.0, -0.1
Short 1 NQ 3219.75, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1075.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1075.6, 1075.5, +0.5, +1.2
Total NQ -1.5
Total TF +4.2
Trading early in the first frame requires close attention. Signals appear rapidly, and of late, action is volatile,
even though contained in a tight coil pattern. Be ready to act. When the signal comes, act decisively. No hesitation allowed. This is the business of trading in the 1st Frame. ...a good weekend to all....
Thurs Sep 26 Trades & Journal
20130926
Short 3 YM 15281, 15287, 15288, -11, -5, -4
Short 2 NQ 3230.75, 3231.75, -2.25, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1079.7, +1.7
Short 1 ES 1697.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1074.1, 1074.2, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 ES 1689.75, -0.0
Long 1 YM 15247, -0
Long 1 TF 1069.7, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1068.8, +1.5
Total ES +2.0
Total YM -20
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF +4.2
Volatile days require strict adherence to Trade Plan. As long as the signals are valid, early stop-outs must be overcome mentally if the turn signals are to be achieved with positions. Such was the case today with some extra excursion mileage coming in the early YM NQ short signals. Eventually, more solid ES and TF short signals appeared, and losses were quickly recovered. Stay focused.....
Short 3 YM 15281, 15287, 15288, -11, -5, -4
Short 2 NQ 3230.75, 3231.75, -2.25, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1079.7, +1.7
Short 1 ES 1697.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1074.1, 1074.2, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 ES 1689.75, -0.0
Long 1 YM 15247, -0
Long 1 TF 1069.7, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1068.8, +1.5
Total ES +2.0
Total YM -20
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF +4.2
Volatile days require strict adherence to Trade Plan. As long as the signals are valid, early stop-outs must be overcome mentally if the turn signals are to be achieved with positions. Such was the case today with some extra excursion mileage coming in the early YM NQ short signals. Eventually, more solid ES and TF short signals appeared, and losses were quickly recovered. Stay focused.....
Wed Sep 25 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130925
Short 2 NQ 3206.0, 3206.25, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3198.05, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1071.0, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3207.5, -1.0
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +1.0
There is a Yin Yang to the transitions from one frame to the next. Usually, the 1st frame has all the volatility.
And if the market only coils in the 1st Frame, it's the Midday Frame that gets the trend. Today, the 1st frame was very volatile, so when it came to an end, and a TF buy signal appeared, I ignored it; partly because I tend not to trade into the Midday Frame, and partly because it usually dies off for a few hours into consolidation. But today the 1st Frame had the less common combination of both being volatile, but also a coil, and consequently, that last TF buy signal exploded into the midday with the trendiness to contrast the coil of the 1st frame. I was left watching on the sidelines. My mentor always use to say "Position yourself to be surprised." Stay focused. The Trader's role is not to predict. The Trader's role is to position.
20130925
Short 2 NQ 3206.0, 3206.25, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3198.05, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1071.0, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3207.5, -1.0
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +1.0
There is a Yin Yang to the transitions from one frame to the next. Usually, the 1st frame has all the volatility.
And if the market only coils in the 1st Frame, it's the Midday Frame that gets the trend. Today, the 1st frame was very volatile, so when it came to an end, and a TF buy signal appeared, I ignored it; partly because I tend not to trade into the Midday Frame, and partly because it usually dies off for a few hours into consolidation. But today the 1st Frame had the less common combination of both being volatile, but also a coil, and consequently, that last TF buy signal exploded into the midday with the trendiness to contrast the coil of the 1st frame. I was left watching on the sidelines. My mentor always use to say "Position yourself to be surprised." Stay focused. The Trader's role is not to predict. The Trader's role is to position.
Tues Sep 24 Trades & Journal
20130924
Long 1 ES 1691.5, +2.25
Long 2 TF 1066.3, 1066.5, +0.7, +1.4
Long 3 TF 1065.9, 1066.1, 1065.9, +0.5, -0.0, +0.5
Long 2 YM 15308, 15304, +5, -7
Long 2 YM 15291, 15291, -10, -10
Long 2 TF 1063.9, 1063.9, +0.7, +3.0
Short 3 TF 1073.5, 1073.9, 1073.9, -0.0, -0.1, -0.8
Total ES +2.25
Total YM -22
Total TF +5.9
What is counter trend and what is in-trend can be deceiving to the casual observer in the early going. Remember, Test-n-Reject is the more typical of Day Models, not Persistent Trend, so yesterday's reversal by TF following Friday's Persistent Trend Day Down in the ES and YM built up the potential of a strong Test-n-Reject today--with TF showing its hand at leadership yesterday. Having entered at the LOD, a 3 pt gain in today's reversal seemed paltry, but usually, such a reversal would be accompanied by several pullbacks as 2nd chance entries. Breakout plays were well within the Trade Plan on 2nd Trend Direction setups, but those didn't come til the momentum indicators were pushing up against the ceiling. Missing out on profits is always harder emotionally than even losing capital. Stay focused, and stay within the plan. Trade what's in front of you, that's all you can ever accomplish.
Long 1 ES 1691.5, +2.25
Long 2 TF 1066.3, 1066.5, +0.7, +1.4
Long 3 TF 1065.9, 1066.1, 1065.9, +0.5, -0.0, +0.5
Long 2 YM 15308, 15304, +5, -7
Long 2 YM 15291, 15291, -10, -10
Long 2 TF 1063.9, 1063.9, +0.7, +3.0
Short 3 TF 1073.5, 1073.9, 1073.9, -0.0, -0.1, -0.8
Total ES +2.25
Total YM -22
Total TF +5.9
What is counter trend and what is in-trend can be deceiving to the casual observer in the early going. Remember, Test-n-Reject is the more typical of Day Models, not Persistent Trend, so yesterday's reversal by TF following Friday's Persistent Trend Day Down in the ES and YM built up the potential of a strong Test-n-Reject today--with TF showing its hand at leadership yesterday. Having entered at the LOD, a 3 pt gain in today's reversal seemed paltry, but usually, such a reversal would be accompanied by several pullbacks as 2nd chance entries. Breakout plays were well within the Trade Plan on 2nd Trend Direction setups, but those didn't come til the momentum indicators were pushing up against the ceiling. Missing out on profits is always harder emotionally than even losing capital. Stay focused, and stay within the plan. Trade what's in front of you, that's all you can ever accomplish.
Mon Sep 23 Trades & Journal
20130923
Long 2 TF 1067.4, 1067.4, +0.7, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1066.9, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1066.9, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1066.3, -0.5
Long 2 YM 15356, 15357, +6, -1
Short 2 TF 1066.1, 1065.9, -0.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1065.3, 1065.7, -01, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1065.6, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1064.9, +2.2
Short 1 TF 1063.2, -0.5
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1067.4, 1068.3, -1.4, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1069.8, 1069.7, 1069.6, -0.4, +0.7, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1070.9, 1071.0, 1071.0, +0.5, +0.5, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1069.5, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1069.5, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1070.3, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1069.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1069.1, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1069.2, -0.2
Total YM +5
Total TF +0.1
No methods of decision support can well predict whether the action will be whippy at the breakdown levels. Serial Sequent can be deadly accurate at identifying the inflection levels associated with breakout momentum levels, but not the style of action. And today, several stp-n-rev plays into short were stopped-out. The last of 3 in a row, however, did trend nicely, but otherwise, I was treading water. The idea is always to stay with the trade plan. Some days are better for trending action than others. The trade plan should keep you healthy until then, and also contain losses to a minimum when action is less favorable.
PM Addendum
TF sudden volatility at the end the correction stop'd out my premature short entries, but can not blame anything my failure to adhere to trade plan. The structure was correct, but did not have a resistance number at the price entered, and paid the consequences. The ES and YM levels reached by comparable signals, however, did stick nicely, and had I been more flexible about contract choice, either of those would have shown excellent production. Stick to the plan. The trade management aspect of the plan kept me from losing all the AM profits, but was actually negative on the day with the commissions.
Long 2 TF 1067.4, 1067.4, +0.7, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1066.9, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1066.9, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1066.3, -0.5
Long 2 YM 15356, 15357, +6, -1
Short 2 TF 1066.1, 1065.9, -0.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1065.3, 1065.7, -01, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1065.6, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1064.9, +2.2
Short 1 TF 1063.2, -0.5
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1067.4, 1068.3, -1.4, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1069.8, 1069.7, 1069.6, -0.4, +0.7, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1070.9, 1071.0, 1071.0, +0.5, +0.5, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1069.5, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1069.5, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1070.3, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1069.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1069.1, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1069.2, -0.2
Total YM +5
Total TF +0.1
No methods of decision support can well predict whether the action will be whippy at the breakdown levels. Serial Sequent can be deadly accurate at identifying the inflection levels associated with breakout momentum levels, but not the style of action. And today, several stp-n-rev plays into short were stopped-out. The last of 3 in a row, however, did trend nicely, but otherwise, I was treading water. The idea is always to stay with the trade plan. Some days are better for trending action than others. The trade plan should keep you healthy until then, and also contain losses to a minimum when action is less favorable.
PM Addendum
TF sudden volatility at the end the correction stop'd out my premature short entries, but can not blame anything my failure to adhere to trade plan. The structure was correct, but did not have a resistance number at the price entered, and paid the consequences. The ES and YM levels reached by comparable signals, however, did stick nicely, and had I been more flexible about contract choice, either of those would have shown excellent production. Stick to the plan. The trade management aspect of the plan kept me from losing all the AM profits, but was actually negative on the day with the commissions.
Thurs Sep 19 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130919
Long 2 TF 1073.0, 1073.1, +0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1071.7, 1071.1, 1071.3, -0.0, +1.8, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1070.9, 1070.9, -0.0, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1072.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1069.7, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1070.1, 1070.0, +0.5, +0.7
Long 1 YM 15588, -3
Long 1 TF 1069.1, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1069.1, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1069.0, -0.2
Total YM -3
Total TF +1.9
The clearer signals were from the long side in early going, but were also clearly counter trend to the bearish momentum. Best trades were pullback patterns, and although I tried two of them, I failed to make the connection to the upper line of the declining channel resistance to pick the entry targets, and by the time I figured it out, there were already 4 touch points. This was simply a matter of being lazy and not paying attention to lower frame trend lines. Focus is essential in trading. And your software programs seldom supply all the necessary elements automatically to an entry model.
20130919
Long 2 TF 1073.0, 1073.1, +0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1071.7, 1071.1, 1071.3, -0.0, +1.8, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1070.9, 1070.9, -0.0, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1072.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1069.7, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1070.1, 1070.0, +0.5, +0.7
Long 1 YM 15588, -3
Long 1 TF 1069.1, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1069.1, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1069.0, -0.2
Total YM -3
Total TF +1.9
The clearer signals were from the long side in early going, but were also clearly counter trend to the bearish momentum. Best trades were pullback patterns, and although I tried two of them, I failed to make the connection to the upper line of the declining channel resistance to pick the entry targets, and by the time I figured it out, there were already 4 touch points. This was simply a matter of being lazy and not paying attention to lower frame trend lines. Focus is essential in trading. And your software programs seldom supply all the necessary elements automatically to an entry model.
Wed Sep 18 Trades & Summary
Trade Summary
20130918
Short 2 YM 15448, 15448, -6, -7
Short 2 TF 1063.0, 1063.2, +1.1, +0.4
Short 1 TF 1062.0, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1059.9, 1059.8, -0.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1060.3, 1060.3, +0.4, +1.0
Long 2 YM 15424, 15423, +7, +10
PM Trades
Short 1 TF 1070.6, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1072.0, 1072.0, +0.5, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1072.1, +1.0
Total YM +4
Total TF +4.3
The YM short stop-out was within the management plan, but the TF stop out was a trade I outside of my plan, that I fudged thinking support would hold without structure. It's annoying to miss out on a trade that your intuition and expectations call for even though the trade model is broken or absent. But usually, you pay for that intuition either immediately, or later when you think you're just unbeatable that day. You aren't. When a model fails to gel, or falls apart and does not hold, exit immediately, even at the risk of missing a winner. Stay within your trade plan. Stay disciplined. Today is a much anticipated FOMC day, so will at least come back for that expected volatility and monitor possible trade model setups.
PM Addendum:
The best trade for the PM was the retest of the LOD, pre-FOMC. My excuse for not being in that was absence from the screen, but would have to admit that I would have taken the profits for that entry, even a runner, before the news release, but not because my management called for it.... Shorts at the HOD post news were well within structure, but the 1st entry just too soon for the volatility needed to complete a short term high. The retest was also a trade model entry, and so am glad to have traded within the plan during such volatility. The Trade Models remain the same, regardless of volatility, but entries are far more challenging. Tomorrow, Philly Fed will also provide possible pre-news setups, and being that those outcomes far less volatile than FOMC, is easier to overcome mental blocks of holding a potential runner into the news release itself. Stay focused.....
20130918
Short 2 YM 15448, 15448, -6, -7
Short 2 TF 1063.0, 1063.2, +1.1, +0.4
Short 1 TF 1062.0, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1059.9, 1059.8, -0.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1060.3, 1060.3, +0.4, +1.0
Long 2 YM 15424, 15423, +7, +10
PM Trades
Short 1 TF 1070.6, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1072.0, 1072.0, +0.5, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1072.1, +1.0
Total YM +4
Total TF +4.3
The YM short stop-out was within the management plan, but the TF stop out was a trade I outside of my plan, that I fudged thinking support would hold without structure. It's annoying to miss out on a trade that your intuition and expectations call for even though the trade model is broken or absent. But usually, you pay for that intuition either immediately, or later when you think you're just unbeatable that day. You aren't. When a model fails to gel, or falls apart and does not hold, exit immediately, even at the risk of missing a winner. Stay within your trade plan. Stay disciplined. Today is a much anticipated FOMC day, so will at least come back for that expected volatility and monitor possible trade model setups.
PM Addendum:
The best trade for the PM was the retest of the LOD, pre-FOMC. My excuse for not being in that was absence from the screen, but would have to admit that I would have taken the profits for that entry, even a runner, before the news release, but not because my management called for it.... Shorts at the HOD post news were well within structure, but the 1st entry just too soon for the volatility needed to complete a short term high. The retest was also a trade model entry, and so am glad to have traded within the plan during such volatility. The Trade Models remain the same, regardless of volatility, but entries are far more challenging. Tomorrow, Philly Fed will also provide possible pre-news setups, and being that those outcomes far less volatile than FOMC, is easier to overcome mental blocks of holding a potential runner into the news release itself. Stay focused.....
Tues Sep 17 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130917
Short 3 TF 1055.0, 1056.1, 1056.1, -1.4, -0.3, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1696.75, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1056.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1056.9, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1057.8, 1057.6, +0.7, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1057.6, 1057.7, -0.3, -0.4
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1060.8, 1060.5, +0.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1061.1, 1061.1, -0.2, -0.3
Total ES -0
Total TF -4.2
Yesterday Persistent Trend Day down offered sufficient swings extremes to play in both directions. Today, all pullbacks were shallow in a Persistent Trend Day morning. The last set of shorts eventually did produce a payoff but I lost patience as my loss limit approached. Some days better for trading than others. The NQ could have offered at least one bull breakout play to capture a piece of the early going, and I must be willing to include and act on the more volatile NQ for such setups as it can sometimes be the only way to jump aboard a vertical market and still remain within the Trade Plan. Action item: review and resolve.
20130917
Short 3 TF 1055.0, 1056.1, 1056.1, -1.4, -0.3, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1696.75, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1056.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1056.9, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1057.8, 1057.6, +0.7, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1057.6, 1057.7, -0.3, -0.4
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1060.8, 1060.5, +0.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1061.1, 1061.1, -0.2, -0.3
Total ES -0
Total TF -4.2
Yesterday Persistent Trend Day down offered sufficient swings extremes to play in both directions. Today, all pullbacks were shallow in a Persistent Trend Day morning. The last set of shorts eventually did produce a payoff but I lost patience as my loss limit approached. Some days better for trading than others. The NQ could have offered at least one bull breakout play to capture a piece of the early going, and I must be willing to include and act on the more volatile NQ for such setups as it can sometimes be the only way to jump aboard a vertical market and still remain within the Trade Plan. Action item: review and resolve.
Mon Sep 16 Trades & Journal
20130916
Long 2 NQ 3189.0, 3187.25, -0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1057.4, 1057.5, -0. -0
Short 3 TF 1057.6, 1058.0, 1057.8, -1.0, +0.5, +0.4
Short 3 TF 1059.4, 1059.3, 1059.4, +0.7, +1.1, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1056.6, 1056.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1055.8, +0.7, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1055.0, 1054.9, +1.0, +0.5
PM Trades:
Long 2 YM 15416, 15414, +10, +5
Total YM +15
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +4.4
Sometimes prices open at such extremes that you can just smell a gap close coming. But once you introduce intuition into your Trade Plan, it starts leaking in at other occasions less convincing. Intuition has no qualifiers. It always feels like the right direction. Today, had no short signal at the opening, despite the strong odor in the extreme price highs, but a good bounce midway down provided one. Thereafter, the Plan spotted the lows quite well in the NQ and the TF, although the TF came a bit shy of the more ideal entry level, and so had to to scramble. Also backed out of two long entries today, when the structure failed to hold the right plan model, and was rewarded by getting out about b/e on those. It's important not to talk yourself into holding a position when the pattern and price described by the model deteriorate. No trade decision is ever 'General Custer". You take trade entries for a specific set of conditions, and even if price is holding, you should exit that trade quickly if the reason you entered the trade can no longer be seen. Stay disciplined.
Long 2 NQ 3189.0, 3187.25, -0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1057.4, 1057.5, -0. -0
Short 3 TF 1057.6, 1058.0, 1057.8, -1.0, +0.5, +0.4
Short 3 TF 1059.4, 1059.3, 1059.4, +0.7, +1.1, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1056.6, 1056.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1055.8, +0.7, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1055.0, 1054.9, +1.0, +0.5
PM Trades:
Long 2 YM 15416, 15414, +10, +5
Total YM +15
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +4.4
Sometimes prices open at such extremes that you can just smell a gap close coming. But once you introduce intuition into your Trade Plan, it starts leaking in at other occasions less convincing. Intuition has no qualifiers. It always feels like the right direction. Today, had no short signal at the opening, despite the strong odor in the extreme price highs, but a good bounce midway down provided one. Thereafter, the Plan spotted the lows quite well in the NQ and the TF, although the TF came a bit shy of the more ideal entry level, and so had to to scramble. Also backed out of two long entries today, when the structure failed to hold the right plan model, and was rewarded by getting out about b/e on those. It's important not to talk yourself into holding a position when the pattern and price described by the model deteriorate. No trade decision is ever 'General Custer". You take trade entries for a specific set of conditions, and even if price is holding, you should exit that trade quickly if the reason you entered the trade can no longer be seen. Stay disciplined.
Fri Sep 13 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130913
Short 2 NQ 3174.0, 3174.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 YM 15277, 15300, -4, -1
Short 1 TF 1048.2, +1.1
Long 2 YM 15279, 15278, +1, -4
Long 1 YM 15263, +15
Total YM +7
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +1.0
Guess I was reacting still to the need to post a profitable week, but in truth the reason for the 1 lot trade size today was more a quickness in the turns. Since I usually try to get a 2nd or 3rd contract as some kind of base builds, I can miss out of those additional positions if price takes off immediately from ID'd support/resistance. But at least all five days this week profitable, and that's important coming off a losing week last week. Consistency is more important than missed opportunities. Don't play catch-up. Find the consistency you lost, and you will catch up with all your losses. ...and a good weekend to all...
20130913
Short 2 NQ 3174.0, 3174.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 YM 15277, 15300, -4, -1
Short 1 TF 1048.2, +1.1
Long 2 YM 15279, 15278, +1, -4
Long 1 YM 15263, +15
Total YM +7
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +1.0
Guess I was reacting still to the need to post a profitable week, but in truth the reason for the 1 lot trade size today was more a quickness in the turns. Since I usually try to get a 2nd or 3rd contract as some kind of base builds, I can miss out of those additional positions if price takes off immediately from ID'd support/resistance. But at least all five days this week profitable, and that's important coming off a losing week last week. Consistency is more important than missed opportunities. Don't play catch-up. Find the consistency you lost, and you will catch up with all your losses. ...and a good weekend to all...
Thurs Sep 12 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130912
Long 2 TF 1052.4, 1052.4, +0.7, +1.2
Long 1 ES 1685.75, +1.25
Short 2 TF 1054.3, 1054.4, -0.4, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15334, 15334, -2, -1
Short 2 NQ 3182.75, 3182.75, +2.0, +3.0
PM trades:
Short 2 TF 10551.1, 1051.2, -0.3, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1051.2, 1051.3, -0.2, -0.3
Total ES +1.25
Total NQ +5.0
Total YM -3
Total TF +0.0
Diverging leadership again today between the YM and the TF. Yesterday, YM won out handily, but today, TF not so willing. PM whipsaws stopped out two trend entry signals in both directions, but both trades were within the Plan models, arriving near the Transition Time. Sometimes, just walking away is better than giving up small gains for reappearing opportunities. And even a small winning week after a losing one helps to get back in sync. Stay disciplined.
20130912
Long 2 TF 1052.4, 1052.4, +0.7, +1.2
Long 1 ES 1685.75, +1.25
Short 2 TF 1054.3, 1054.4, -0.4, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15334, 15334, -2, -1
Short 2 NQ 3182.75, 3182.75, +2.0, +3.0
PM trades:
Short 2 TF 10551.1, 1051.2, -0.3, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1051.2, 1051.3, -0.2, -0.3
Total ES +1.25
Total NQ +5.0
Total YM -3
Total TF +0.0
Diverging leadership again today between the YM and the TF. Yesterday, YM won out handily, but today, TF not so willing. PM whipsaws stopped out two trend entry signals in both directions, but both trades were within the Plan models, arriving near the Transition Time. Sometimes, just walking away is better than giving up small gains for reappearing opportunities. And even a small winning week after a losing one helps to get back in sync. Stay disciplined.
Wed Sep 11 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130911
Short 2 YM 115218, 15221, -4, +7
Long 2 TF 1051.2, 1051.2, +0.5, +1.1
Short 2 TF 1053.3, 1053.4, +1.0, +0.5
Total YM +3
Total TF +3.1
After reaching this minimum profit level, balked at buying an ES long signal at the 10:30am Trend Check. Could have taken that with minimum risk, but in fact, there was a critical momentum component missing. Also ducked at least one short scalp trade opp in the TF after reaching this level. But the important thing is getting one's consistency back. That consists of posting profits nearly every day. And after a losing week, it is so very important to come back with a winning week, even if it was done with limited risks. Two losing weeks in a row can be so dibiliating mentally, and mental factors, notwithstanding the goal to trade indifferently to emotions, can nonetheless have such an overriding effect on all your trading efforts. Establish consistency. Trade the Plan. Be willing to quit after reaching a profit goal. It's far more important to finish the day having rung decent profits up on the cash register than worry about any missed trade opportunities, when the goal is so clearly a return-to-consistency.
20130911
Short 2 YM 115218, 15221, -4, +7
Long 2 TF 1051.2, 1051.2, +0.5, +1.1
Short 2 TF 1053.3, 1053.4, +1.0, +0.5
Total YM +3
Total TF +3.1
After reaching this minimum profit level, balked at buying an ES long signal at the 10:30am Trend Check. Could have taken that with minimum risk, but in fact, there was a critical momentum component missing. Also ducked at least one short scalp trade opp in the TF after reaching this level. But the important thing is getting one's consistency back. That consists of posting profits nearly every day. And after a losing week, it is so very important to come back with a winning week, even if it was done with limited risks. Two losing weeks in a row can be so dibiliating mentally, and mental factors, notwithstanding the goal to trade indifferently to emotions, can nonetheless have such an overriding effect on all your trading efforts. Establish consistency. Trade the Plan. Be willing to quit after reaching a profit goal. It's far more important to finish the day having rung decent profits up on the cash register than worry about any missed trade opportunities, when the goal is so clearly a return-to-consistency.
Tues Sep 10 Trades and Journal
Trade Summary
20130910
Short 3 TF 1050.1, 1049.9, 1051.1, -1.5, -1.4, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1052.1, 1051.9, 1051.9, +1.0, +1.2, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1051.7, 1051.6, +1.0, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1052.3, 1052.1, 1052.2, -0.6, -0.7, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1052.5, 1052.5, 1052.5, +0.5, +1.5, -0.8
Short 2 TF 1051.7, 1052.0, -0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1051.8, 1052.1, -0.6, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1052.4, 1052.5, +0.5, -0.8
Short 2 TF 1053.1, 1053.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1052.9, 1052.8, +2.0, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1050.4, 1050.3, 1050.2, -0.4 +0.5, +0.5
Total TF +2.3
Hard fought battles today at the potential turns, with a very choppy first trend up, in what should have been a Test-n-Reject pattern in the the Day Model sequence cycle. You have to work with what's offered. And sometimes trading more like boxing, where a punch from your opponent leaves him open to a re entry signal and an opportunity to turn the tide. Such it was today. When things get difficult, stay focused on the signals, because in choppy, whippy action those signals can follow one on top of the other. Be ready to take quick partial exits to pay for the trade, and take 2nd and/or 3rd units as the turn forms at better prices in order to take those quick exits. Then work the runner for a target support/resistance number. Then keep an eye on your maximum allowable trades. If things not going well, don't let emotions drive you to exceed those limits. Take a break, get away from screen. Action will improve on subsequent days, but you must keep your capital intact for better opportunities when they do arrive.
20130910
Short 3 TF 1050.1, 1049.9, 1051.1, -1.5, -1.4, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1052.1, 1051.9, 1051.9, +1.0, +1.2, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1051.7, 1051.6, +1.0, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1052.3, 1052.1, 1052.2, -0.6, -0.7, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1052.5, 1052.5, 1052.5, +0.5, +1.5, -0.8
Short 2 TF 1051.7, 1052.0, -0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1051.8, 1052.1, -0.6, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1052.4, 1052.5, +0.5, -0.8
Short 2 TF 1053.1, 1053.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1052.9, 1052.8, +2.0, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1050.4, 1050.3, 1050.2, -0.4 +0.5, +0.5
Total TF +2.3
Hard fought battles today at the potential turns, with a very choppy first trend up, in what should have been a Test-n-Reject pattern in the the Day Model sequence cycle. You have to work with what's offered. And sometimes trading more like boxing, where a punch from your opponent leaves him open to a re entry signal and an opportunity to turn the tide. Such it was today. When things get difficult, stay focused on the signals, because in choppy, whippy action those signals can follow one on top of the other. Be ready to take quick partial exits to pay for the trade, and take 2nd and/or 3rd units as the turn forms at better prices in order to take those quick exits. Then work the runner for a target support/resistance number. Then keep an eye on your maximum allowable trades. If things not going well, don't let emotions drive you to exceed those limits. Take a break, get away from screen. Action will improve on subsequent days, but you must keep your capital intact for better opportunities when they do arrive.
Mon Sep 9 Trades & Summary
Trade Summary
20130909
Simulator Trades
Short 2 YM 14996, 14996, +7, -7
Short 3 TF 1035.8, 1036.3, 1036.2, -1.4, +0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1037.1, 1037.1, 1037.3, +2.0, +0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1036.1, 1035.9, +0.5, +0.4
Short 1 TF 1036.8, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1038.1, 1037.9, +0.9, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1038.4, 1038.6, +0.5, +0.5,
Total YM -0
Total TF +4.6
PM Trades Cash Trades
Short 1 TF 1043.7, +0.9
Short 2 TF 1044.7, 1044.7, +0.4, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1045.2, 1045.3, 1045.4, -0.0, +0.4, +0.5
PM Total TF +1.7
All these trades were taken on the simulator this morning, as required by a trip wire in my Trade Plan. Last week a losing week, and although the 1st in a year, still doesn't change the Behavior Governor to quit trading real money and take a series of trades on the simulator. Is a bit humbling to do this, but have found over the years that P&L far more important than being right about the next set of trades. And missing a few profits is really not the point for the long term. What matters in the long term is consistency. Although I posted those trades in this blog,
they will not appear in the Performance Archive, as I don't count those on the simulator towards those totals.
PM Addendum Some ok signals at the 2:30 Transition Time, and again at the Cash Closing, both fit trade models but TF Persistent Trend Day action seems to have denied any real correction at the short entry points. At least these last trades were from outside the penalty box of the simulator and can claim a few dollars to pay the bills with today... Stay focused and stick to the Plan !!
20130909
Simulator Trades
Short 2 YM 14996, 14996, +7, -7
Short 3 TF 1035.8, 1036.3, 1036.2, -1.4, +0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1037.1, 1037.1, 1037.3, +2.0, +0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1036.1, 1035.9, +0.5, +0.4
Short 1 TF 1036.8, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1038.1, 1037.9, +0.9, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1038.4, 1038.6, +0.5, +0.5,
Total YM -0
Total TF +4.6
PM Trades Cash Trades
Short 1 TF 1043.7, +0.9
Short 2 TF 1044.7, 1044.7, +0.4, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1045.2, 1045.3, 1045.4, -0.0, +0.4, +0.5
PM Total TF +1.7
All these trades were taken on the simulator this morning, as required by a trip wire in my Trade Plan. Last week a losing week, and although the 1st in a year, still doesn't change the Behavior Governor to quit trading real money and take a series of trades on the simulator. Is a bit humbling to do this, but have found over the years that P&L far more important than being right about the next set of trades. And missing a few profits is really not the point for the long term. What matters in the long term is consistency. Although I posted those trades in this blog,
they will not appear in the Performance Archive, as I don't count those on the simulator towards those totals.
PM Addendum Some ok signals at the 2:30 Transition Time, and again at the Cash Closing, both fit trade models but TF Persistent Trend Day action seems to have denied any real correction at the short entry points. At least these last trades were from outside the penalty box of the simulator and can claim a few dollars to pay the bills with today... Stay focused and stick to the Plan !!
Fri Sep 6 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130906
Long 2 TF 1022.8, 1021.6, -2.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1018.7, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1018.3, 1018.3, -0.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1021.1, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1022.2, -0,5, -0,5
Short 2 TF 1025.7, 1025.7, -0,4 -0.4
Total TF -5.8
Made a number of mistakes today, and stepped outside my Trading Models at a time when I probably should only have watching anyway. One support level after another gave way, and once the sharp V-Bottom was in, I ignored the bullish momentum readings trying to short as price met resistance levels on the way back up. They held no better than did the support levels on the way down. An adherence to the rules of the TTI momentum indicator would have kept me out of the short attempts altogether, except for maybe the small losses taken for the final trades. With only one profitable day in 4 this week, have to post a losing week for the first time in a year. A Behavior Governor in my Trade Plan requires that I begin Monday with trades outside my cash account on the simulator, until I am back in sync. Wishing all a good weekend. Will lick my wounds, and look forward to getting back next week!
20130906
Long 2 TF 1022.8, 1021.6, -2.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1018.7, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1018.3, 1018.3, -0.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1021.1, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1022.2, -0,5, -0,5
Short 2 TF 1025.7, 1025.7, -0,4 -0.4
Total TF -5.8
Made a number of mistakes today, and stepped outside my Trading Models at a time when I probably should only have watching anyway. One support level after another gave way, and once the sharp V-Bottom was in, I ignored the bullish momentum readings trying to short as price met resistance levels on the way back up. They held no better than did the support levels on the way down. An adherence to the rules of the TTI momentum indicator would have kept me out of the short attempts altogether, except for maybe the small losses taken for the final trades. With only one profitable day in 4 this week, have to post a losing week for the first time in a year. A Behavior Governor in my Trade Plan requires that I begin Monday with trades outside my cash account on the simulator, until I am back in sync. Wishing all a good weekend. Will lick my wounds, and look forward to getting back next week!
Thurs Sep 5 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130905
Short 3 TF 1029.3, 1029.3, 1029.2 +0.5, +0.5 +1.6
PM trades
Short 1 TF 1029.9, +1.2
Total TF +3.8
As yesterday's losses were under a 3 pt loss quota, and Tuesday morning's losses were trimmed by PM trades, ...and I because forgot this morning... I did not instigate my 'go to simulator' rule, which triggers after 2 losing days in a row. But I did proceed with caution and was careful only to wait til both price and structure aligned for a short today as the Test n Reject pattern of the early going set in. A breakdown trade in the YM would have added to profits, but I balked. At least I put myself back on track a bit with today's trade decisions, having done so well in August where the trading is usually poor, didn't want to start off in Sept digging a hole. One day at a time....
Stay disciplined.
PM Addendum:
The 2:30 Transition Time offered another short opp for a 1-lot trade, and added a bit to the day's modest P&L. Is important to establish series of winning days, and especially important to end a day after 2 losing days prior back in the black. Like weekend golfers, the temptation is to focus more on the big drives rather than the short game or the total score. But short term gratification almost always is paid for by a suffering outcome. Stick with your Trade Plan. Limit your trades and monitor your status for the week when things not going so well. The best way to dig yourself out of a hole is not to get in one in the first place.
20130905
Short 3 TF 1029.3, 1029.3, 1029.2 +0.5, +0.5 +1.6
PM trades
Short 1 TF 1029.9, +1.2
Total TF +3.8
As yesterday's losses were under a 3 pt loss quota, and Tuesday morning's losses were trimmed by PM trades, ...and I because forgot this morning... I did not instigate my 'go to simulator' rule, which triggers after 2 losing days in a row. But I did proceed with caution and was careful only to wait til both price and structure aligned for a short today as the Test n Reject pattern of the early going set in. A breakdown trade in the YM would have added to profits, but I balked. At least I put myself back on track a bit with today's trade decisions, having done so well in August where the trading is usually poor, didn't want to start off in Sept digging a hole. One day at a time....
Stay disciplined.
PM Addendum:
The 2:30 Transition Time offered another short opp for a 1-lot trade, and added a bit to the day's modest P&L. Is important to establish series of winning days, and especially important to end a day after 2 losing days prior back in the black. Like weekend golfers, the temptation is to focus more on the big drives rather than the short game or the total score. But short term gratification almost always is paid for by a suffering outcome. Stick with your Trade Plan. Limit your trades and monitor your status for the week when things not going so well. The best way to dig yourself out of a hole is not to get in one in the first place.
Wed Sep 4 Trades & Summary
Trade Summary
20130904
Short 2 YM 14837, 14836, -7, -0
Short 1 YM 14850, -5
Short 2 TF 1019.5, 1019.4, , -0.4, -0.5
Short 3 YM 14863, 14862, 14870, -0, -5, -5
Short 2 TF 1020.7, 1020.7, +0.5, -0.3
Short 2 YM 14871, 14870, -5, -6
Short 4 TF 1021.0, 1021.1, 1021.2, 1021.0, +0.7, -0.2, -0.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1022.5, 1022.2, +0.5, -0.7
Short 3 YM 14888, 14886, 14887, -6, -0, -7
Short 2 TF 1023.6, 1023.7, +0.5, +0.5
Total YM -46
Total TF -0.3
Although we had a good support number at the very low of the day in some initial selling, the signal was incomplete and the benefits to sticking to the Trade Plan models far outweighs the occasionally lucky hit of trading from just numbers by themselves. Today's action straight up throughout the 1st Frame, and pullbacks for the shorts where
structure and price aligned were extremely shallow. ....these are always the harder markets to trade. Although the losses were small these past 2 days, that's still 2 losing days in a row for me, and in my Trade Plan, that means
I start tomorrow off on the trade simulator. The point of such strict money management rules is to keep from digging deep into a negative hole for the week. If simulated profits remain unattainable from here, then a big draw-down is avoided. Money management is far more important than being right, and a consistent methodology should get back on track in time to recapture losses fairly quickly, even if a few good trades are missed while on the simulator. Stay disciplined. Have a Plan and stick to it.
20130904
Short 2 YM 14837, 14836, -7, -0
Short 1 YM 14850, -5
Short 2 TF 1019.5, 1019.4, , -0.4, -0.5
Short 3 YM 14863, 14862, 14870, -0, -5, -5
Short 2 TF 1020.7, 1020.7, +0.5, -0.3
Short 2 YM 14871, 14870, -5, -6
Short 4 TF 1021.0, 1021.1, 1021.2, 1021.0, +0.7, -0.2, -0.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1022.5, 1022.2, +0.5, -0.7
Short 3 YM 14888, 14886, 14887, -6, -0, -7
Short 2 TF 1023.6, 1023.7, +0.5, +0.5
Total YM -46
Total TF -0.3
Although we had a good support number at the very low of the day in some initial selling, the signal was incomplete and the benefits to sticking to the Trade Plan models far outweighs the occasionally lucky hit of trading from just numbers by themselves. Today's action straight up throughout the 1st Frame, and pullbacks for the shorts where
structure and price aligned were extremely shallow. ....these are always the harder markets to trade. Although the losses were small these past 2 days, that's still 2 losing days in a row for me, and in my Trade Plan, that means
I start tomorrow off on the trade simulator. The point of such strict money management rules is to keep from digging deep into a negative hole for the week. If simulated profits remain unattainable from here, then a big draw-down is avoided. Money management is far more important than being right, and a consistent methodology should get back on track in time to recapture losses fairly quickly, even if a few good trades are missed while on the simulator. Stay disciplined. Have a Plan and stick to it.
Tues Sep 3 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130903
Long 3 TF 1027.1, 1026.7, 1026.1, -0.0, +0,5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1025.8, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1024.6, 1024.3, -0.7, -0.5
Long 4 TF 1021.0, 1019.8, 1019.0, 1018.9, -2.5, -1.4, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1014.8, 1014.8, +0.7, +1.5
PM trades:
Long 1 TF 1007.4, +0.8,
Long 1 TF 1007.1, +1.1
Total TF -3.6
Not a pretty beginning to the month. Biggest failing today was in stretching out a stp loss, and adding to it outside my money management rules. That would have reduced my losses by nearly 3 pts on the day, but irregardless, it would have been a losing day for me. I did stick to the mm requirement to only take simulator trades after those initial set of losses, until I had posted 2 of 3 trades as winners on the simulator. That allowed me to come back with that last trade in real money for a decent profit, albeit only a dent into my day's losses. I also balked at a bear inflection breakdown play in the TF, but would have had to survive a big whipsaw before enjoying the profits of the mornings big plunge down. And even if partial exits there, would have been stp'd out no better than breakeven. I'll study it all again for awhile this afternoon, to see if anything more constructive should be added to the journal. In general, losing days are the best for education. Winning days have little to teach you besides reinforcement in your trade plan. Control the number and depth of losing days, and winning days can shine.
PM Addendum:
Good signal at the Transition Time for a sharp short covering rally. Lost faith early with it, and had no real runner. This is what you get mentally when playing catch up. You don't want to add to a day already in the red, so when profits do appear, you tend to exit too soon. Is not something I've even attempted to master, that is putting the days losses totally behind when some minimum profits appear. Tomorrow is another day....
20130903
Long 3 TF 1027.1, 1026.7, 1026.1, -0.0, +0,5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1025.8, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1024.6, 1024.3, -0.7, -0.5
Long 4 TF 1021.0, 1019.8, 1019.0, 1018.9, -2.5, -1.4, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1014.8, 1014.8, +0.7, +1.5
PM trades:
Long 1 TF 1007.4, +0.8,
Long 1 TF 1007.1, +1.1
Total TF -3.6
Not a pretty beginning to the month. Biggest failing today was in stretching out a stp loss, and adding to it outside my money management rules. That would have reduced my losses by nearly 3 pts on the day, but irregardless, it would have been a losing day for me. I did stick to the mm requirement to only take simulator trades after those initial set of losses, until I had posted 2 of 3 trades as winners on the simulator. That allowed me to come back with that last trade in real money for a decent profit, albeit only a dent into my day's losses. I also balked at a bear inflection breakdown play in the TF, but would have had to survive a big whipsaw before enjoying the profits of the mornings big plunge down. And even if partial exits there, would have been stp'd out no better than breakeven. I'll study it all again for awhile this afternoon, to see if anything more constructive should be added to the journal. In general, losing days are the best for education. Winning days have little to teach you besides reinforcement in your trade plan. Control the number and depth of losing days, and winning days can shine.
PM Addendum:
Good signal at the Transition Time for a sharp short covering rally. Lost faith early with it, and had no real runner. This is what you get mentally when playing catch up. You don't want to add to a day already in the red, so when profits do appear, you tend to exit too soon. Is not something I've even attempted to master, that is putting the days losses totally behind when some minimum profits appear. Tomorrow is another day....
Fr Aug 30 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130830
Short 2 TF 1023.2, 1032.1, +0.5, +1.2
Long 1 NQ 3087.75, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 3080.5, -0
Long 2 TF 1018.6, 1018.6, -0.5, -0.5
Long 4 TF 1018.1, 1018.3, 1018.1, 1018.5, +0.5, -0.5, +1.2, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 3071.0, 3071.0, +2.0, +4.0
Total NQ +11
Total TF +2.9
Monthly Totals Aug 2013
Total ES +0.25
Total YM +24
Total NQ +36.5
Total TF +54.7
I let the whippy action caution me out of an inflection breakdown call in the TF today, even after the pre-break setup gel'd nicely. No excuse. Just too cautious. The whipsaws from failed breakout plays can leave lasting stings, and mine still linger from previous failed breakouts. But need to focus on the setups better, and reduce the decision down to precise filters. When this..then that. No thinking allowed. Thinking is for after "those machines turned off" as Harvey Duke would have said (Trading Places fame). Trading is all about following rules, and keeping to the discipline of the Trade Plan. Wishing a great Labor Day weekend to all.... cya next week.
20130830
Short 2 TF 1023.2, 1032.1, +0.5, +1.2
Long 1 NQ 3087.75, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 3080.5, -0
Long 2 TF 1018.6, 1018.6, -0.5, -0.5
Long 4 TF 1018.1, 1018.3, 1018.1, 1018.5, +0.5, -0.5, +1.2, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 3071.0, 3071.0, +2.0, +4.0
Total NQ +11
Total TF +2.9
Monthly Totals Aug 2013
Total ES +0.25
Total YM +24
Total NQ +36.5
Total TF +54.7
I let the whippy action caution me out of an inflection breakdown call in the TF today, even after the pre-break setup gel'd nicely. No excuse. Just too cautious. The whipsaws from failed breakout plays can leave lasting stings, and mine still linger from previous failed breakouts. But need to focus on the setups better, and reduce the decision down to precise filters. When this..then that. No thinking allowed. Thinking is for after "those machines turned off" as Harvey Duke would have said (Trading Places fame). Trading is all about following rules, and keeping to the discipline of the Trade Plan. Wishing a great Labor Day weekend to all.... cya next week.
Thurs Aug 29 Trade & Journal
Trade Summary
20130829
Short 2 YM 14823, 14823, +7, -7
Short 2 TF 1018.1, 1018.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1018.8, 1018.8, 1019.3, +0.7, -0.0, +1.0,
Short 2 YM 14838, 14838, -7, -7
Short 2 TF 1021.0, 1021.0, -0.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1022.0, 1022.9, -1.4, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1023.1, 1023.1, 1023.0, +1.0, +0.7, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1027.1, 1027.2, +1.0, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1027.3, 1027.4, -0.2, +0.5
PM trades:
Short 3 TF 1024.8, 1025.4, 1025.5, -0.0, +1.4, +0.5
Total YM -14
Total TF +2.4
Vertical markets the most difficult to trade. Very shallow pullbacks in the early drive, and was left with counter trend short signals at resistance and structural levels only. These barely paid their way to a net b/e state. I filter out from my Trade Plan breakouts to the initial trend direction on such days, as they can often come right back in your face. But a shallow pullback at the 10:30am Trend Check did hit an initial support number that would have positioned for the 2nd leg and a huge payoff. I balked and was left without an in-sync trade entry for the morning. As I post this journal, TF is making the best short signal so far today here at the Noon Hour, but I've closed the books and will just have to wait til tomorrow. Good trading. Stay disciplined.
PM Addendum
Although missed the Noon hour high and was shy of a fill on a trade call for retest of same, did find a short on retest later on well within Trade Plan. My entry a bit early, but the signal remained valid, so added to position and worked out of the less attractive fill. Have always found most the more accepted adages and trade axioms to be of little use, and in fact a deterrent to taking positions more precisely at the turns. "Never short a new High, sell a new Low" is one of those axioms. Tell that to a floor trader. That's where his profits come from. And "never add to a losing position" is also of little use if that position is still being built within the validity of the same signal setup. As long as the signal is still valid, a better fill price opportunity, is, well a better fill opportunity. And money management strategies like taking a 2nd and 3rd contract for a quick partial exit can help reduce or altogether eliminate the risk of the trade, as the position is reduced to a net break/even stp-loss strategy. For those attempting to trade futures without using auto OCO orders, this would all be impossible.
20130829
Short 2 YM 14823, 14823, +7, -7
Short 2 TF 1018.1, 1018.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1018.8, 1018.8, 1019.3, +0.7, -0.0, +1.0,
Short 2 YM 14838, 14838, -7, -7
Short 2 TF 1021.0, 1021.0, -0.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1022.0, 1022.9, -1.4, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1023.1, 1023.1, 1023.0, +1.0, +0.7, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1027.1, 1027.2, +1.0, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1027.3, 1027.4, -0.2, +0.5
PM trades:
Short 3 TF 1024.8, 1025.4, 1025.5, -0.0, +1.4, +0.5
Total YM -14
Total TF +2.4
Vertical markets the most difficult to trade. Very shallow pullbacks in the early drive, and was left with counter trend short signals at resistance and structural levels only. These barely paid their way to a net b/e state. I filter out from my Trade Plan breakouts to the initial trend direction on such days, as they can often come right back in your face. But a shallow pullback at the 10:30am Trend Check did hit an initial support number that would have positioned for the 2nd leg and a huge payoff. I balked and was left without an in-sync trade entry for the morning. As I post this journal, TF is making the best short signal so far today here at the Noon Hour, but I've closed the books and will just have to wait til tomorrow. Good trading. Stay disciplined.
PM Addendum
Although missed the Noon hour high and was shy of a fill on a trade call for retest of same, did find a short on retest later on well within Trade Plan. My entry a bit early, but the signal remained valid, so added to position and worked out of the less attractive fill. Have always found most the more accepted adages and trade axioms to be of little use, and in fact a deterrent to taking positions more precisely at the turns. "Never short a new High, sell a new Low" is one of those axioms. Tell that to a floor trader. That's where his profits come from. And "never add to a losing position" is also of little use if that position is still being built within the validity of the same signal setup. As long as the signal is still valid, a better fill price opportunity, is, well a better fill opportunity. And money management strategies like taking a 2nd and 3rd contract for a quick partial exit can help reduce or altogether eliminate the risk of the trade, as the position is reduced to a net break/even stp-loss strategy. For those attempting to trade futures without using auto OCO orders, this would all be impossible.
Wed Aug 28 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130828
Short 2 YM 14784, 14787, +13, +7
Long 2 NQ 3063.75, 3063.75, -.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1016.5, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1014.5, 1014.5, +0.7, +2.0
Total YM +20
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +3.9
A bear Test n Reject pattern yesterday became persistent with lower prices into the close. TRIN finished at nearly +3.0, so a correction was preordained. Although it was a choppy going, the trade plan offered good opportunities
in both directions and so just stayed with it until the end of the first frame. The best thing can be said about my trading today is that I waited for pullback numbers to hit, even though jumping the gun in a few cases would have meant more participation. The worst thing can be said was lack of faith shown in an NQ buy trade, where I dumped a 2nd unit at b/e on fear of failure, and was then left with 1-lot management, which means I tend to get out too soon. Stay disciplined....
20130828
Short 2 YM 14784, 14787, +13, +7
Long 2 NQ 3063.75, 3063.75, -.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1016.5, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1014.5, 1014.5, +0.7, +2.0
Total YM +20
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +3.9
A bear Test n Reject pattern yesterday became persistent with lower prices into the close. TRIN finished at nearly +3.0, so a correction was preordained. Although it was a choppy going, the trade plan offered good opportunities
in both directions and so just stayed with it until the end of the first frame. The best thing can be said about my trading today is that I waited for pullback numbers to hit, even though jumping the gun in a few cases would have meant more participation. The worst thing can be said was lack of faith shown in an NQ buy trade, where I dumped a 2nd unit at b/e on fear of failure, and was then left with 1-lot management, which means I tend to get out too soon. Stay disciplined....
Tues Aug 27 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130827
Short 2 NQ 3099.5, 3098.75, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1027.9, 1027.9, -0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1028.1, +1.3
Long 3 TF 1024.8, 1023.8, 1023.9, -0.0, +0.7, +1.1
Long 2 NQ 3083.75, 3082.5, -0.0, +6.0
Long 2 NQ 3082.25, 3081.25, +2.0, +5.0
PM Trades:
Long 2 YM 14766, 14763, -0, +22
Total NQ +9.0
Total YM +22
Total TF +2.1
Yesterday's resolution to take NQ 2nd trend inflections was met today with conflicts in Pivot / Exhaustion Grid that filtered out those trades, so can give no mental feedback to intentions on self improvement in that area based on today's opportunities. The initial climb came with several sell signals but stop'd me out anyway. Good signals lower down in the NQ saved the morning, but my exits were a bit early on those, as the 'digging-out-a-hole' syndrome pushes one to the exits as P&L gets back to even. All in all an ok 1st frame, as there were a couple good trade opps after the losses were recovered. Stay focused.....
PM Addendum
Decent Trade Entry Model at the 2:30 TransTime for a counter trend buy. Took it in the YM for its lower contract value risk, but even dumped one at b/e as I witnessed the shaky action. ....or was that my shaky hand.... ha! Anyway, managed it as a 1 lot into the initial resistance for a balancing addition to today's profit goals. Stay disciplined.....
20130827
Short 2 NQ 3099.5, 3098.75, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1027.9, 1027.9, -0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1028.1, +1.3
Long 3 TF 1024.8, 1023.8, 1023.9, -0.0, +0.7, +1.1
Long 2 NQ 3083.75, 3082.5, -0.0, +6.0
Long 2 NQ 3082.25, 3081.25, +2.0, +5.0
PM Trades:
Long 2 YM 14766, 14763, -0, +22
Total NQ +9.0
Total YM +22
Total TF +2.1
Yesterday's resolution to take NQ 2nd trend inflections was met today with conflicts in Pivot / Exhaustion Grid that filtered out those trades, so can give no mental feedback to intentions on self improvement in that area based on today's opportunities. The initial climb came with several sell signals but stop'd me out anyway. Good signals lower down in the NQ saved the morning, but my exits were a bit early on those, as the 'digging-out-a-hole' syndrome pushes one to the exits as P&L gets back to even. All in all an ok 1st frame, as there were a couple good trade opps after the losses were recovered. Stay focused.....
PM Addendum
Decent Trade Entry Model at the 2:30 TransTime for a counter trend buy. Took it in the YM for its lower contract value risk, but even dumped one at b/e as I witnessed the shaky action. ....or was that my shaky hand.... ha! Anyway, managed it as a 1 lot into the initial resistance for a balancing addition to today's profit goals. Stay disciplined.....
Mon Aug 26 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130826
Short 3 TF 1037.4, 1038.7, 1038.7, -0.3, +0.7, +1.3
Short 2 YM 15011, 15011, +7, -2
Short 2 TF 1040.6, 1040.7, -0.4, -0.2
Short 1 ES 1665.0, -0.75
Short 2 YM 15021, 15024, -5, +5
Total YM +5
Total ES -0.75
Total TF +1.0
Choppy action changes the pace of trading dramatically, and certainly brings its own challenges outside of the normal trend considerations. When opportunities are scant, always remember that tomorrow is another day, and save your capital for those better days. Today, I ducked a TF breakout play that could have netted a small profit, but for the most part, good entries in the TF according to trade plan entry models failed to materialize. However, had I successfully spread my focus a bit into the NQ, would have noticed an excellent breakout trigger there in the early going that would have captured much of NQ's big bull swoon successfully. I must go back to the Trade Plan and emphasize the taking of NQ 2nd trend, SubSequent Inflection breakouts, as the NQ is easily the most consistent contract producing that breakout play.
20130826
Short 3 TF 1037.4, 1038.7, 1038.7, -0.3, +0.7, +1.3
Short 2 YM 15011, 15011, +7, -2
Short 2 TF 1040.6, 1040.7, -0.4, -0.2
Short 1 ES 1665.0, -0.75
Short 2 YM 15021, 15024, -5, +5
Total YM +5
Total ES -0.75
Total TF +1.0
Choppy action changes the pace of trading dramatically, and certainly brings its own challenges outside of the normal trend considerations. When opportunities are scant, always remember that tomorrow is another day, and save your capital for those better days. Today, I ducked a TF breakout play that could have netted a small profit, but for the most part, good entries in the TF according to trade plan entry models failed to materialize. However, had I successfully spread my focus a bit into the NQ, would have noticed an excellent breakout trigger there in the early going that would have captured much of NQ's big bull swoon successfully. I must go back to the Trade Plan and emphasize the taking of NQ 2nd trend, SubSequent Inflection breakouts, as the NQ is easily the most consistent contract producing that breakout play.
Fri Aug 23 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130823
Long 2 TF 1031.9, +0.5, +1.7
Long 3 TF 1030.2, 1029.9, 1030.0, +2.0, +0.7, +0.5
Total TF +5.4
Pretty much stuck to trading plan, but did duck one breakout trade called 'The Pinch'. By that time had gathered in over 5 pts TF, so could filter out any trade after hitting 1st Frame quota. Was reminded how important it is to wait til both price from the Pivot/Exhaustion Grid and the wave structure of Serial Sequent intersect, as I am often tempted to go when only one of them shows up with a signal. By sticking to that discipline today, only took 2 trades to capture the quota. However, that has a much to do with the nice swing volatility produced by those signals as the signals themselves. Stay disciplined and keep with a plan. You're lost as a trader without one.... and a good weekend to all....
20130823
Long 2 TF 1031.9, +0.5, +1.7
Long 3 TF 1030.2, 1029.9, 1030.0, +2.0, +0.7, +0.5
Total TF +5.4
Pretty much stuck to trading plan, but did duck one breakout trade called 'The Pinch'. By that time had gathered in over 5 pts TF, so could filter out any trade after hitting 1st Frame quota. Was reminded how important it is to wait til both price from the Pivot/Exhaustion Grid and the wave structure of Serial Sequent intersect, as I am often tempted to go when only one of them shows up with a signal. By sticking to that discipline today, only took 2 trades to capture the quota. However, that has a much to do with the nice swing volatility produced by those signals as the signals themselves. Stay disciplined and keep with a plan. You're lost as a trader without one.... and a good weekend to all....
Thurs Aug 22 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130822
Short 2 TF 1029.3, 1029.1, +0.7, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1029.9, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1029.1, 1029.1, +0.5, +0.5
Total TF +4.0
Missed several buy opps with orders working just below pullbacks, but that happens. Last profit came from having patience as the pullback target was accurate. However, lost patience once I was in the trade, and dumped the potential runner before it got back to the resistance target near the highs, which meant I left 2 pts on the table. My only excuse was that the last trade came a little after the end of the 1st Frame and was getting antsy to leave the screen. Stay disciplined....!
20130822
Short 2 TF 1029.3, 1029.1, +0.7, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1029.9, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1029.1, 1029.1, +0.5, +0.5
Total TF +4.0
Missed several buy opps with orders working just below pullbacks, but that happens. Last profit came from having patience as the pullback target was accurate. However, lost patience once I was in the trade, and dumped the potential runner before it got back to the resistance target near the highs, which meant I left 2 pts on the table. My only excuse was that the last trade came a little after the end of the 1st Frame and was getting antsy to leave the screen. Stay disciplined....!
Wed Aug 21 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130821
Short 2 NQ 3087.0, 3087.0, +1.5, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1022.1, +2.0
Short 2 YM 14938, 14946, -12, -6
Short 2 YM 14949, 14951, +6, -0
Long 1 TF 1021.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1020.6, 1020.8, +2.0, +1.0
Total NQ +6.5
Total YM -12
Total TF +4.5
Lots of turns and swings today, just the opposite of yesterday. The more swing turns with Trade Model signals, the more opportunities. Today, instead of a Pre-News setup, the setup occurred just post-news, and provided a very quick payoff. The Trade Plan calls for a pre-news position if there's a trade model signal that appears with enough window left before the release to gain a premium in paper and/or partial profits to 'pay' for the trade. Today, that signal didn't occur til the news was right on top of us, but clarified nicely just after the news was over. Stay relaxed. Have a Plan. Stick to the Plan.
20130821
Short 2 NQ 3087.0, 3087.0, +1.5, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1022.1, +2.0
Short 2 YM 14938, 14946, -12, -6
Short 2 YM 14949, 14951, +6, -0
Long 1 TF 1021.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1020.6, 1020.8, +2.0, +1.0
Total NQ +6.5
Total YM -12
Total TF +4.5
Lots of turns and swings today, just the opposite of yesterday. The more swing turns with Trade Model signals, the more opportunities. Today, instead of a Pre-News setup, the setup occurred just post-news, and provided a very quick payoff. The Trade Plan calls for a pre-news position if there's a trade model signal that appears with enough window left before the release to gain a premium in paper and/or partial profits to 'pay' for the trade. Today, that signal didn't occur til the news was right on top of us, but clarified nicely just after the news was over. Stay relaxed. Have a Plan. Stick to the Plan.
Tues Aug 20 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130820
Short 3 TF 1016.2, 1016.2, 1016.1, +0.7, -0.0, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1016.7, 1016.7, +0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1017.0, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1018.8, 1019.2, -0.7, -0.3
Short 4 TF 1021.4, 1021.8, 1021.9, 1021.9, +0.1, -0.6, +0.5, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1052.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1022.6, +0.6
Short 2 TF 1023.9, 1024.2, -0.5, +0.5
PM trades
Long 2 ES 1653.25, 1653.25, +1.0, +1.0
Total ES +2.5
Total TF-1.0
TF's Measured Move target of 1009 was hit in pre-cash trading and it was off to the races thereafter. Unfortunately,
pullbacks were scant and shallow, and the Inflection breakout I did identify in TF was a belly flop. But the technique of partially out with small profit and then going to tight stp on last unit helps keep losses small when action is so virulent. Had a nice string of 7 winning days into this, and Persistence of trend always shows up eventually. On those days, if the right breakouts are elusive, best to manage the fades tightly. Don't let frustration about where the market SHOULD turn become big losses from expectations. Swing volatility always returns, and best to wait for another day for it. Stay focused.....
Addendum:
Came back at the 2:30 Transition Time to find TF pullback into the buy zone, but missed it on limit orders just a bit deeper than it went. Took lazy ES instead for small profit, and at least got back to a b/e day. Persistent Trend Day Up Model calls for new HOD's after the first and sometimes the only decent pullback sometime in the Midday Frame or thereafter. But sometimes Last Frame condemned to just drift without making any actual gains of its own.
20130820
Short 3 TF 1016.2, 1016.2, 1016.1, +0.7, -0.0, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1016.7, 1016.7, +0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1017.0, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1018.8, 1019.2, -0.7, -0.3
Short 4 TF 1021.4, 1021.8, 1021.9, 1021.9, +0.1, -0.6, +0.5, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1052.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1022.6, +0.6
Short 2 TF 1023.9, 1024.2, -0.5, +0.5
PM trades
Long 2 ES 1653.25, 1653.25, +1.0, +1.0
Total ES +2.5
Total TF-1.0
TF's Measured Move target of 1009 was hit in pre-cash trading and it was off to the races thereafter. Unfortunately,
pullbacks were scant and shallow, and the Inflection breakout I did identify in TF was a belly flop. But the technique of partially out with small profit and then going to tight stp on last unit helps keep losses small when action is so virulent. Had a nice string of 7 winning days into this, and Persistence of trend always shows up eventually. On those days, if the right breakouts are elusive, best to manage the fades tightly. Don't let frustration about where the market SHOULD turn become big losses from expectations. Swing volatility always returns, and best to wait for another day for it. Stay focused.....
Addendum:
Came back at the 2:30 Transition Time to find TF pullback into the buy zone, but missed it on limit orders just a bit deeper than it went. Took lazy ES instead for small profit, and at least got back to a b/e day. Persistent Trend Day Up Model calls for new HOD's after the first and sometimes the only decent pullback sometime in the Midday Frame or thereafter. But sometimes Last Frame condemned to just drift without making any actual gains of its own.
Mon Aug 19 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130819
Short 2 NQ 3087.25, -2.0, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1019.9, +2.0
Short 2 ES 1656.5, 1656.5, +1.0, +1.5
Total NQ +2.0
Total ES +2.5
Total TF +2.0
Pretty much traded the plan today, but did balk at an initial buy with stp-n-rev play for the TF. Would have been successful. a 2nd came as the end of the 1st frame approached, but would not have been successful. normally, I filter out breakout plays at the end of the 1st frame, so ducking that 2nd one was well inside the plan. is ok for a Monday ..... stay disciplined this week. Trade your Plan.
20130819
Short 2 NQ 3087.25, -2.0, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1019.9, +2.0
Short 2 ES 1656.5, 1656.5, +1.0, +1.5
Total NQ +2.0
Total ES +2.5
Total TF +2.0
Pretty much traded the plan today, but did balk at an initial buy with stp-n-rev play for the TF. Would have been successful. a 2nd came as the end of the 1st frame approached, but would not have been successful. normally, I filter out breakout plays at the end of the 1st frame, so ducking that 2nd one was well inside the plan. is ok for a Monday ..... stay disciplined this week. Trade your Plan.
Fri Aug 16 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130816
Short 2 TF 1027.0, 1026.9, +0.4, +0.2
Long 2 TF 1023.9, 1023.9, +0.5, +2.3
Total TF +3.4
Missed the Opening Breakout Play in TF, as I was unprepared to get the order in. Too much jappin' in the chat room, and am going on just a few hours sleep. ...another publisher's deadline. Also failed to capture the post news release decline today at the 9:55 release of those Prelim numbers. I did enter the short correctly just prior to the news on the short entry signal, with nice size offering of some 250+ contracts just above to front run against, and was able to exit 1 lot quickly for small profit. But as per rules of the Pre-News play, since there was no cushion just prior to the news release, I let the last one go for a couple ticks profit, only to watch price fall back sharply a few minutes later. But missing that profit isn't the point. The rule of 'exit if no cushion on Pre-News positions' is there for a reason. It keeps me out of trouble should the news offer a big surprise spike against the pre-news trade entry model. ...but did get the pullback for a nice profit. Trading on little or no sleep is a very bad idea. But didn't want to post a 'no show' with a new group of traders in the chat room. Don't trade without sleep, and if you must, make sure your Trade Plan is on auto-pilot. cya next week....
20130816
Short 2 TF 1027.0, 1026.9, +0.4, +0.2
Long 2 TF 1023.9, 1023.9, +0.5, +2.3
Total TF +3.4
Missed the Opening Breakout Play in TF, as I was unprepared to get the order in. Too much jappin' in the chat room, and am going on just a few hours sleep. ...another publisher's deadline. Also failed to capture the post news release decline today at the 9:55 release of those Prelim numbers. I did enter the short correctly just prior to the news on the short entry signal, with nice size offering of some 250+ contracts just above to front run against, and was able to exit 1 lot quickly for small profit. But as per rules of the Pre-News play, since there was no cushion just prior to the news release, I let the last one go for a couple ticks profit, only to watch price fall back sharply a few minutes later. But missing that profit isn't the point. The rule of 'exit if no cushion on Pre-News positions' is there for a reason. It keeps me out of trouble should the news offer a big surprise spike against the pre-news trade entry model. ...but did get the pullback for a nice profit. Trading on little or no sleep is a very bad idea. But didn't want to post a 'no show' with a new group of traders in the chat room. Don't trade without sleep, and if you must, make sure your Trade Plan is on auto-pilot. cya next week....
Thurs Aug 15 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130815
Long 2 TF 1030.2, +0.7, +1.2
Long 1 ES 1661.0, +0.25
Long 2 NQ 3068.0, 3067.75, +6.0, +1.5
Total ES +0.25
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +1.9
Have to meet a publisher's deadline this morning so could only attend briefly. Love to trade the Philly Fed days,
but this one did not produce much of a pre news play, only modest TF gains. There was, however, an excellent NQ signal at the LOD which we were able to catch for a nice bounce. Stay focused, and stick to your Trading Plan. Be back manana.
20130815
Long 2 TF 1030.2, +0.7, +1.2
Long 1 ES 1661.0, +0.25
Long 2 NQ 3068.0, 3067.75, +6.0, +1.5
Total ES +0.25
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +1.9
Have to meet a publisher's deadline this morning so could only attend briefly. Love to trade the Philly Fed days,
but this one did not produce much of a pre news play, only modest TF gains. There was, however, an excellent NQ signal at the LOD which we were able to catch for a nice bounce. Stay focused, and stick to your Trading Plan. Be back manana.
Wed Aug 14 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130814
Short 2 TF 1050.6, 1050.6, +0.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1050.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1051.0, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1051.0, 1051.1, +1.0, +0.5
Total TF +4.8
Stuck well to the plan today, and this time caught the initial ORB breakdown trigger, unlike yesterday. One flaw committed in stp-loss order movement. I trailed the stop to +1 as plus in paper profits approached, but should have waited till it broke a further pause pattern. As a consequence, left the next leg of the excursion on the table. But all in all, can't complain. Stay focused, stick with the Plan.
20130814
Short 2 TF 1050.6, 1050.6, +0.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1050.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1051.0, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1051.0, 1051.1, +1.0, +0.5
Total TF +4.8
Stuck well to the plan today, and this time caught the initial ORB breakdown trigger, unlike yesterday. One flaw committed in stp-loss order movement. I trailed the stop to +1 as plus in paper profits approached, but should have waited till it broke a further pause pattern. As a consequence, left the next leg of the excursion on the table. But all in all, can't complain. Stay focused, stick with the Plan.
Tues Aug 13 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130813
Short 1 TF 1048.7, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1044.0, 1044.1, +1.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1045.6, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1046.5, -0.2
Total TF +3.5
Fell back into a bad habit today, of missing the early ORB breakdown trade when it conflicted with another signal. I did, however, stick to plan and got short thereafter on next available short signal for an early profit. But there, I only took one and was left without a runner for the full excursion down. Although the lows in TF were a bit tricky, did manage a profit on one of them. Was a bit too focused on TF there perhaps, because buy signals at the LOD's for YM ES and NQ were less sloppy, and could have established a runner in one of those for the trip back up. I also missed a buy breakout buy opportunity in the TF on the way up, but it came after the 1st Frame was over, and that filter keeps me out of the trade by Plan. All in all, did ok, but don't want to fall back into old habits. Stay positive. Keep to the Trade Plan....
20130813
Short 1 TF 1048.7, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1044.0, 1044.1, +1.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1045.6, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1046.5, -0.2
Total TF +3.5
Fell back into a bad habit today, of missing the early ORB breakdown trade when it conflicted with another signal. I did, however, stick to plan and got short thereafter on next available short signal for an early profit. But there, I only took one and was left without a runner for the full excursion down. Although the lows in TF were a bit tricky, did manage a profit on one of them. Was a bit too focused on TF there perhaps, because buy signals at the LOD's for YM ES and NQ were less sloppy, and could have established a runner in one of those for the trip back up. I also missed a buy breakout buy opportunity in the TF on the way up, but it came after the 1st Frame was over, and that filter keeps me out of the trade by Plan. All in all, did ok, but don't want to fall back into old habits. Stay positive. Keep to the Trade Plan....
Mon Aug 12 Trades & Journal
20130812
Short 2 TF 1044.2, 1045.3, -1.4, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1047.7, 1047.7, 1047.7, +1.0, +0.7, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15363, 15362, +7, -0
Short 2 TF 1048.8, 1049.2, -0.4,+0.5
Short 1 ES 1686.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1049.6, 1049.3, +0.6, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1050.8, 1050.6, +04, -0.0
Total YM +7
Total ES -0.0
Total TF +2.5
On days of shallow pullbacks, money management is even more important. Several times today was convinced that at least a more deeper pullback would follow short entries... but never really did as the 1st Frame came to a close and the Noon Hour approached. But small profits can still add up just as fast as small losses. If continues, a Persistent Trend Day Up today could set us up for a good reversal tomorrow. Stay focused.
Short 2 TF 1044.2, 1045.3, -1.4, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1047.7, 1047.7, 1047.7, +1.0, +0.7, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15363, 15362, +7, -0
Short 2 TF 1048.8, 1049.2, -0.4,+0.5
Short 1 ES 1686.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1049.6, 1049.3, +0.6, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1050.8, 1050.6, +04, -0.0
Total YM +7
Total ES -0.0
Total TF +2.5
On days of shallow pullbacks, money management is even more important. Several times today was convinced that at least a more deeper pullback would follow short entries... but never really did as the 1st Frame came to a close and the Noon Hour approached. But small profits can still add up just as fast as small losses. If continues, a Persistent Trend Day Up today could set us up for a good reversal tomorrow. Stay focused.
Fri Aug 9 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130809
Short 2 TF 1050.2, 1050.1, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 3132.25, 3132.75, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 3133.25, 3133.0, +2.0, +2.25
Long 2 TF 1047.1, 1047.2, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 ES 1690.5, 1690.0, -0.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1048.3, -0.9
Long 2 TF 1046.6, 1046.6, +0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1046.4, 1046.4, -0,.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1041.7, 1041.5, +1.4, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1045.6, 1045.5, 1045.9, +1.1, +0.5, +0.5
Total NQ +0.25
Total ES +0.5
Total TF +3.0
The best thing to remember when signals appear but action is whippy is to remain calm. Usually the signals reassert themselves. Manage your trades accordingly. Even though a signal appears that should begin a clear trend, is best to partial out of the position anyway, even if that early exit turns out to be way earlier than needed. You enter the signal because the trade model is in your Trade Plan, but manage the trade as if it has the possibility of failure. Partialing out of a position pays for the trade, and today, kept my losses down in several places. Return to look at the Noon Hour. So many good trades can set up around that time marker. Today, it was the difference in making a mostly break-even day into a profit. ...and a good weekend to all....
20130809
Short 2 TF 1050.2, 1050.1, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 3132.25, 3132.75, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 3133.25, 3133.0, +2.0, +2.25
Long 2 TF 1047.1, 1047.2, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 ES 1690.5, 1690.0, -0.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1048.3, -0.9
Long 2 TF 1046.6, 1046.6, +0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1046.4, 1046.4, -0,.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1041.7, 1041.5, +1.4, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1045.6, 1045.5, 1045.9, +1.1, +0.5, +0.5
Total NQ +0.25
Total ES +0.5
Total TF +3.0
The best thing to remember when signals appear but action is whippy is to remain calm. Usually the signals reassert themselves. Manage your trades accordingly. Even though a signal appears that should begin a clear trend, is best to partial out of the position anyway, even if that early exit turns out to be way earlier than needed. You enter the signal because the trade model is in your Trade Plan, but manage the trade as if it has the possibility of failure. Partialing out of a position pays for the trade, and today, kept my losses down in several places. Return to look at the Noon Hour. So many good trades can set up around that time marker. Today, it was the difference in making a mostly break-even day into a profit. ...and a good weekend to all....
Thurs Aug 8 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130808
Long 1 TF 1049.7, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1048.1, -0.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1046.4, +1.0
Long 3 TF 1044.7, 1044.4, 1044.5, +0,5 +0.5, -1.0
Long 3 TF 1043.6, 1043.7, 1043.5, +1.0, +1.0, +0.5
Long 2 ES 1686.5, 1686.0, -1.5, -1.75
Long 2 TF 1042.6, 1042.5, -0.6, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1042.0, 1042.0, +0.5, +1.9
Long 1 TF 1043.6, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1044.8, -0.4,
Long 1 TF 1045.0, -0.3
Total ES -3.25
Total TF +3.7
Third day in row for a brutal 1st trend sell-off. And again, successive support levels failed to hold without providing much bounce to get short on. Such is the bear. And if the bear is finally taking hold in the daily frame,
there should be much more of this, as it has tendency to go vertical, unlike bull, which often grinds in fits and turns. Today, did manage to take the third contract on 2 of the 3 support levels where turns most likely, but failed to do so on the third and best support level. This left only modest profits at resistance exit, where a runner would have pushed me into a profit goal. Subsequent trades were taken as breakouts to that resistance level, but action proved choppy as the 1st frame came to an end. Second Trend breakouts are in my Trade Plan, so at least can say I met them. Stay with the Plan. The smallest details of its rules can mean the difference between a profit goal and just breaking even for the day. It takes heart to trade, especially on volatile days like this where it can be straight down, and then nearly straight back up.
20130808
Long 1 TF 1049.7, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1048.1, -0.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1046.4, +1.0
Long 3 TF 1044.7, 1044.4, 1044.5, +0,5 +0.5, -1.0
Long 3 TF 1043.6, 1043.7, 1043.5, +1.0, +1.0, +0.5
Long 2 ES 1686.5, 1686.0, -1.5, -1.75
Long 2 TF 1042.6, 1042.5, -0.6, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1042.0, 1042.0, +0.5, +1.9
Long 1 TF 1043.6, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1044.8, -0.4,
Long 1 TF 1045.0, -0.3
Total ES -3.25
Total TF +3.7
Third day in row for a brutal 1st trend sell-off. And again, successive support levels failed to hold without providing much bounce to get short on. Such is the bear. And if the bear is finally taking hold in the daily frame,
there should be much more of this, as it has tendency to go vertical, unlike bull, which often grinds in fits and turns. Today, did manage to take the third contract on 2 of the 3 support levels where turns most likely, but failed to do so on the third and best support level. This left only modest profits at resistance exit, where a runner would have pushed me into a profit goal. Subsequent trades were taken as breakouts to that resistance level, but action proved choppy as the 1st frame came to an end. Second Trend breakouts are in my Trade Plan, so at least can say I met them. Stay with the Plan. The smallest details of its rules can mean the difference between a profit goal and just breaking even for the day. It takes heart to trade, especially on volatile days like this where it can be straight down, and then nearly straight back up.
Wed Aug 7 Trades & Journal
20130807
Long 2 TF 1044.2, 1044.2, -1.4, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1042.5, 1042.5, +0,5 -0.5
Long 2 TF 1041.5, 1041.5, +0.5, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1041.0, 1040.8, +1.8, +0.5
Total TF -0.0
PM trades
Short 1 NQ 3111.75, -0.5
Short 3 NQ 3110.75, 3110.75, 3111.75, -0, +0.5, -.25
Short 1 NQ 3109.25, -1.0
Total NQ -1.25
Support at the gap-close melted through like butter today. So had to recover with subsequent position attempts. Decent signals at the Lows accomplished that. Got in late after the opening and missed two trades, one was a key short for the trip down. Big storms passing through knocked out internet. Always notice that trading is more difficult if you start late. The Opening is so important, not only for the market technicals themselves, but also for the psychology of it. Must start the day on time.... or suffer the affects of feeling behind in your trades. Tomorrow always another day... Stay positive..>!!!!
Back at the 2:30 transition out of Midday Frame into Last Frame. The NQ price extreme was time to the marker well, but just got chopped up in trendless action. Back in the A.M....!
Long 2 TF 1044.2, 1044.2, -1.4, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1042.5, 1042.5, +0,5 -0.5
Long 2 TF 1041.5, 1041.5, +0.5, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1041.0, 1040.8, +1.8, +0.5
Total TF -0.0
PM trades
Short 1 NQ 3111.75, -0.5
Short 3 NQ 3110.75, 3110.75, 3111.75, -0, +0.5, -.25
Short 1 NQ 3109.25, -1.0
Total NQ -1.25
Support at the gap-close melted through like butter today. So had to recover with subsequent position attempts. Decent signals at the Lows accomplished that. Got in late after the opening and missed two trades, one was a key short for the trip down. Big storms passing through knocked out internet. Always notice that trading is more difficult if you start late. The Opening is so important, not only for the market technicals themselves, but also for the psychology of it. Must start the day on time.... or suffer the affects of feeling behind in your trades. Tomorrow always another day... Stay positive..>!!!!
Back at the 2:30 transition out of Midday Frame into Last Frame. The NQ price extreme was time to the marker well, but just got chopped up in trendless action. Back in the A.M....!
Tues Aug 6 Trade Summary & Journal
20130805
Short 1 YM 15472, +10
Long 1 TF 1053.8, -0.8
Long 2 TF 1052.9, 1052.9, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 ES 1695.25, 1695.25, -0. -1.5
Long 1 NQ 3125.25, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1051.8, 1051.8, +0.5, +1.0
Long 1 NQ 3123.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1049.5, -0.3
Long 1 1048.4, -0.4
Long 3 TF 1047.3, 1047.5, 1047.5, +3.0, +1.0, +1.0
Total YM +10
Total NQ -1.0
Total ES -1.5
Total TF +6.5
From the 10 minute all-session charts, we began the day with a distinct if small Rising Wedge Pattern, which dumped nicely into a strong selling impulse for the early going. But I have a fairly precise entry trigger routine for shorting the 1st trend direction, and it didn't show up. The selling left me behind. I was left with counter trend trade entries. Several failed, but were clearly within the Trade Plan, so can't fault that. I did stick with it for a 2nd round of buy signals as the TF hit the 3rd Series Structure limits near the end of the 1st frame. That one hit the payoff nicely, and this time had a runner. I fail to get a runner established too often, but this level was extreme and the signals were strong. All in a all a decent morning. good to be back... seems like writing the book for a month was a refresher course for me.. or maybe I should just take a month off more often....
Short 1 YM 15472, +10
Long 1 TF 1053.8, -0.8
Long 2 TF 1052.9, 1052.9, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 ES 1695.25, 1695.25, -0. -1.5
Long 1 NQ 3125.25, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1051.8, 1051.8, +0.5, +1.0
Long 1 NQ 3123.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1049.5, -0.3
Long 1 1048.4, -0.4
Long 3 TF 1047.3, 1047.5, 1047.5, +3.0, +1.0, +1.0
Total YM +10
Total NQ -1.0
Total ES -1.5
Total TF +6.5
From the 10 minute all-session charts, we began the day with a distinct if small Rising Wedge Pattern, which dumped nicely into a strong selling impulse for the early going. But I have a fairly precise entry trigger routine for shorting the 1st trend direction, and it didn't show up. The selling left me behind. I was left with counter trend trade entries. Several failed, but were clearly within the Trade Plan, so can't fault that. I did stick with it for a 2nd round of buy signals as the TF hit the 3rd Series Structure limits near the end of the 1st frame. That one hit the payoff nicely, and this time had a runner. I fail to get a runner established too often, but this level was extreme and the signals were strong. All in a all a decent morning. good to be back... seems like writing the book for a month was a refresher course for me.. or maybe I should just take a month off more often....
Mon Aug 5 Trade Summary & Journal
20130805
Long 1 YM 15546, -8
Short 1 TF 1057.9, -0.0
Short 1 YM 15554, -6
Long 2 TF 1059.3, 1059.2, -0.4, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1057.6, +1.0
Total YM -14
Total TF +1.1
It's good to be back. It wasn't much of a vacation. Wiley and Son's Trading division has picked up my book "Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades" for a release sometime in the Fall, and spent all of July finishing it. Hope it helps your trading. Will give synopsis in a later post.
Long 1 YM 15546, -8
Short 1 TF 1057.9, -0.0
Short 1 YM 15554, -6
Long 2 TF 1059.3, 1059.2, -0.4, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1057.6, +1.0
Total YM -14
Total TF +1.1
It's good to be back. It wasn't much of a vacation. Wiley and Son's Trading division has picked up my book "Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades" for a release sometime in the Fall, and spent all of July finishing it. Hope it helps your trading. Will give synopsis in a later post.
Fri Jun 21 Trades & Journal, then VACATION til August
20130621
Long 2 NQ 2975.25, 2974.5, +2.0, +4.0
Long 2 TF 954.6, 954.6, -0.3, -0.3
Long 1 TF 954.3, -0.5
Short 1 TF 954.8, +0.5
Short 1 TF 954.6, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 2972.75, +3.0
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +0.4
Monthly Totals Partial Jun 2013
(3 weeks of trading, then Vacation)
Total ES +9.25
Total YM +119
Total NQ +30.0
Total TF +41.4
Whippy action requires some caution, and it's far more important to keep your P/L at bay when signals between contracts are conflicting and action threatens your normal stp-loss distance. ...but enough about excuses... the market just is, and there were several opportunities today to make profits on small bull bounces, if you had the heart and the technicals met your trade models. Wiley and Sons has picked up my book, tentatively to be called 'Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades', for publication in the late Fall. So in order to meet a deadline, I'm going to take a break in the markets til about August 1st. Keep to your trade plans. Keep your focus. Stay disciplined. ..and I'll be back later in the Summer in August....
Long 2 NQ 2975.25, 2974.5, +2.0, +4.0
Long 2 TF 954.6, 954.6, -0.3, -0.3
Long 1 TF 954.3, -0.5
Short 1 TF 954.8, +0.5
Short 1 TF 954.6, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 2972.75, +3.0
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +0.4
Monthly Totals Partial Jun 2013
(3 weeks of trading, then Vacation)
Total ES +9.25
Total YM +119
Total NQ +30.0
Total TF +41.4
Whippy action requires some caution, and it's far more important to keep your P/L at bay when signals between contracts are conflicting and action threatens your normal stp-loss distance. ...but enough about excuses... the market just is, and there were several opportunities today to make profits on small bull bounces, if you had the heart and the technicals met your trade models. Wiley and Sons has picked up my book, tentatively to be called 'Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades', for publication in the late Fall. So in order to meet a deadline, I'm going to take a break in the markets til about August 1st. Keep to your trade plans. Keep your focus. Stay disciplined. ..and I'll be back later in the Summer in August....
Thur Jun 20 Trade Summary
Trade Summary
20130620
Short 2 ES 1608.0, 1608.25, +1.5, +2.0
Long 1 TF 964.7, -0,
Long 1 TF 964.8, +2.6
Long 1 ES 1602.25, -1.25
Long 1 ES 1600.5, -1.5
Long 2 ES 1597.75, 1597.75, +1.0, -1.5
Long 3 NQ 2912.75, 2912.75, 2912.75, +2.0, +2.0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 962.6, 962.6, +0.5, -0.4
Total ES +0.25
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +2.7
20130620
Short 2 ES 1608.0, 1608.25, +1.5, +2.0
Long 1 TF 964.7, -0,
Long 1 TF 964.8, +2.6
Long 1 ES 1602.25, -1.25
Long 1 ES 1600.5, -1.5
Long 2 ES 1597.75, 1597.75, +1.0, -1.5
Long 3 NQ 2912.75, 2912.75, 2912.75, +2.0, +2.0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 962.6, 962.6, +0.5, -0.4
Total ES +0.25
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +2.7
Wed Jun 19 Trade Summary
20130619
Short 2 TF 994.5, 994.5, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 2990.5, -0.25
Short 1 NQ 2990.5, -0.5
Short 2 ES 1644.5, 1644.75, -.5, -1.0
Short 1 YM 15245, -2
Short 1 TF 992.6, +0.9
Total NQ -0.75
Total ES -1.5
Total TF +2.4
Short 2 TF 994.5, 994.5, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 2990.5, -0.25
Short 1 NQ 2990.5, -0.5
Short 2 ES 1644.5, 1644.75, -.5, -1.0
Short 1 YM 15245, -2
Short 1 TF 992.6, +0.9
Total NQ -0.75
Total ES -1.5
Total TF +2.4
Tues Jun 18 Trades & Journal
20130618
Long 3 TF 986.6, 986.5, 986.5, +0,5, +0.5, +1.6
Long 1 TF 985.9, -0.3
Short 1 TF 985.6, -0.5
Short 1 TF 987.6, 987.9, -0.7, -0.3
Long 1 TF 988.0, -0
Short 3 NQ 2982.25, 2981.75, +2.0, -1.0, -1.5
Short 2 ES 1638.75, 1639.0, -1.0, -1.25
Short 2 ES 1640.5, 1640.5, -1.75, -1.75
Short 2 NQ 2989.25, 2989.50, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 YM 15218, 15218, -4, -4
Total YM -8
Total ES -5.75
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF +0.8
Persistent Trend Days Up model have a number of 'tells' along the way. Problem is, the action can be so slow and grinding that your mind reads it as 'vulnerable to sharp sell off'. In fact, that's actually one of the tells. Beyond that is your money stp-loss limits, and a little voice that says stop after having made decent initial profits, you lose it all and go the same amount backwards into losses. Quit there. Otherwise, if you allow your day to hit its full loss limit, it's much like watching an ES trade go to 2 pts profit, shy of your 4 pt target, only to have it come back in your face to a 4 pt loss. Makes no sense. Handling your money with behavior stp's should be just like handing the rest of your Trade Plan. Stay disciplined.
Long 3 TF 986.6, 986.5, 986.5, +0,5, +0.5, +1.6
Long 1 TF 985.9, -0.3
Short 1 TF 985.6, -0.5
Short 1 TF 987.6, 987.9, -0.7, -0.3
Long 1 TF 988.0, -0
Short 3 NQ 2982.25, 2981.75, +2.0, -1.0, -1.5
Short 2 ES 1638.75, 1639.0, -1.0, -1.25
Short 2 ES 1640.5, 1640.5, -1.75, -1.75
Short 2 NQ 2989.25, 2989.50, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 YM 15218, 15218, -4, -4
Total YM -8
Total ES -5.75
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF +0.8
Persistent Trend Days Up model have a number of 'tells' along the way. Problem is, the action can be so slow and grinding that your mind reads it as 'vulnerable to sharp sell off'. In fact, that's actually one of the tells. Beyond that is your money stp-loss limits, and a little voice that says stop after having made decent initial profits, you lose it all and go the same amount backwards into losses. Quit there. Otherwise, if you allow your day to hit its full loss limit, it's much like watching an ES trade go to 2 pts profit, shy of your 4 pt target, only to have it come back in your face to a 4 pt loss. Makes no sense. Handling your money with behavior stp's should be just like handing the rest of your Trade Plan. Stay disciplined.
Mon Jun 17 Trade Summary
Trade Summary
20130617
Long 2 YM 15154, 15154, +7, +15
Short 2 NQ 2977.25, 2977.75, -1.5, +1.5
Short 3 TF 985.7, 986.0, 986.2, +0.4, -0,7, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 2928.25, -2.5
Short 3 YM, 15182, 15182, 15182, +7, +6, -5
Short 1 NQ 2980.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 987.6, 987.7, +1.8, +0.5
Total YM +30
Total NQ -4.5
Total TF +1.3
Except for one YM breakout which I balked at, I traded the plan today. ...but the plan was not so successful. Some days are better for trading than others.... Stay disciplined.
20130617
Long 2 YM 15154, 15154, +7, +15
Short 2 NQ 2977.25, 2977.75, -1.5, +1.5
Short 3 TF 985.7, 986.0, 986.2, +0.4, -0,7, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 2928.25, -2.5
Short 3 YM, 15182, 15182, 15182, +7, +6, -5
Short 1 NQ 2980.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 987.6, 987.7, +1.8, +0.5
Total YM +30
Total NQ -4.5
Total TF +1.3
Except for one YM breakout which I balked at, I traded the plan today. ...but the plan was not so successful. Some days are better for trading than others.... Stay disciplined.
Fri Jun 14 Trade Summary
20130614
Long 2 NQ 2953.75, 2953.75, +2.0, +3.0
Short 2 TF 986.0, 986.2, +1.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 986.8, +0.8
Long 1 TF 984.8, +1.0
Long 1 YM 15102, -1
Long 1 TF 980.3, +1.5
Long 1 TF 980.0, -0.5
Total NQ +5.0
Total YM -1
Total TF +4.3
Long 2 NQ 2953.75, 2953.75, +2.0, +3.0
Short 2 TF 986.0, 986.2, +1.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 986.8, +0.8
Long 1 TF 984.8, +1.0
Long 1 YM 15102, -1
Long 1 TF 980.3, +1.5
Long 1 TF 980.0, -0.5
Total NQ +5.0
Total YM -1
Total TF +4.3
Thurs Jun 13 Trade Summary
20130613
Short 2 YM 15985, 15986, +12, -0
Short 1 YM 15990, +20
Short 1 YM 15967, -5
Long 1 TF 970.3, +1.2
Short 1 TF 973.0, +0.1
Short 1 YM 15013, +3
Long 1 TF 973.5, -0.2
Long 1 TF 972.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 971.1, -0.5
Long 2 YM 14999, 14986, -0, -3
Long 1 TF 969.9, +1.2
Short 2 TF 974.5, 974.8, -0.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 976.0, 975.9, +1.1, +0.5
Total YM +27
Total +2.9
Short 2 YM 15985, 15986, +12, -0
Short 1 YM 15990, +20
Short 1 YM 15967, -5
Long 1 TF 970.3, +1.2
Short 1 TF 973.0, +0.1
Short 1 YM 15013, +3
Long 1 TF 973.5, -0.2
Long 1 TF 972.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 971.1, -0.5
Long 2 YM 14999, 14986, -0, -3
Long 1 TF 969.9, +1.2
Short 2 TF 974.5, 974.8, -0.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 976.0, 975.9, +1.1, +0.5
Total YM +27
Total +2.9
Wed Jun 12 Trades & Journal
20130612
Long 2 NQ 2972.75, 2972.25, +2.0, -1.0
Long 2 YM 15193, 15193, +7, -0
Long 3 TF 984.2, 983.4, 983.4, -0.0, +0.7, -0.0
Long 2 YM 15178, 15178, +7, +5
Long 2 NQ 2956.75, 2955.75, -2.0, -2.50
Long 2 NQ 2955.25, 2955.25, +2.0, -0.0
Long 2 TF 981.8, 981.7, +1.7, +1.0
Long 3 TF 981.1, 981.1, 981.1, +0.5, +1.0, -0.3
Long 1 ES 1625.75, -2.0
Long 2 YM 15013, 14099, -0, +20
Long 2 TF 978.9, 977.8, -1.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 977.8, 977.8, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 978.1, 977.7, +0.5, +1.5
Long 1 TF 975.1, +1.0
Total NQ -1.5
Total YM +39
Total ES -2.0
Total TF +4.8
Haven't seen a Persistent Trend Day Down model seems like awhile. But did try to get short at the larger pullback mid morning, but came and went too quickly for my too-careful outlook. The counter trend bounces proved pretty good in TF, so finished up ok, but the big miss was the Opening short trade at the ORB. These always require quick recognition, as there is sometimes less than one minute from the time the setup finishes til the entry level is triggered. No hesitation allowed. Be focused. Have your coffee before the market starts. You're an intraday trader. Setups occur quickly and must be recognized and acted upon without delay.
Long 2 NQ 2972.75, 2972.25, +2.0, -1.0
Long 2 YM 15193, 15193, +7, -0
Long 3 TF 984.2, 983.4, 983.4, -0.0, +0.7, -0.0
Long 2 YM 15178, 15178, +7, +5
Long 2 NQ 2956.75, 2955.75, -2.0, -2.50
Long 2 NQ 2955.25, 2955.25, +2.0, -0.0
Long 2 TF 981.8, 981.7, +1.7, +1.0
Long 3 TF 981.1, 981.1, 981.1, +0.5, +1.0, -0.3
Long 1 ES 1625.75, -2.0
Long 2 YM 15013, 14099, -0, +20
Long 2 TF 978.9, 977.8, -1.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 977.8, 977.8, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 978.1, 977.7, +0.5, +1.5
Long 1 TF 975.1, +1.0
Total NQ -1.5
Total YM +39
Total ES -2.0
Total TF +4.8
Haven't seen a Persistent Trend Day Down model seems like awhile. But did try to get short at the larger pullback mid morning, but came and went too quickly for my too-careful outlook. The counter trend bounces proved pretty good in TF, so finished up ok, but the big miss was the Opening short trade at the ORB. These always require quick recognition, as there is sometimes less than one minute from the time the setup finishes til the entry level is triggered. No hesitation allowed. Be focused. Have your coffee before the market starts. You're an intraday trader. Setups occur quickly and must be recognized and acted upon without delay.
Tues Jun 11 Trades & Journal
20130611
Short 1 NQ 2957.5, -3.0
Short 3 TF 978.4, 978.4, 978.7, +1.0, +1.0, -0.3
Short 1 NQ 2959.75, -2.0
Short 2 TF 979.6, 979.7, -.6, -.7
Short 3 NQ 2962.5, 2963.75, 29.63.73, -1.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 YM 115127, 15127, +7, +20
Short 3 YM 15149, 15157, 15157, -0, +7, -0
Short 2 TF 983.3, 983.4, 983.3, +0.5, +0.4, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 2976.0, +4.5
Short 1 TF 985.8, -0.5
Short 1 TF 985.8, +1.0
Short 1 TF 985.9, +1.0
Total YM +35
Total NQ +2.5
Total TF +2.3
For me, breakout trades are the big mental block. And there's always an excuse not to take them when they appear to match the filters required in my Trade Plan. Today, in sharp contrast to yesterday's cold porridge, Goldie Lock's porridge was way too hot to handle, and that was my excuse for not buying several breakout levels after the reversal got started from the LOD. (low of day). And because of it's extra volatility on breakouts but lower price per pt risk, will add a rule to Trade Plan to take all 2nd trend NQ inflections at the Sequent and SubSequent levels. Perhaps that will help ease me past the mental block that has kept me taking no breakouts whatsoever. Have a Plan. Trade the Plan.
Short 1 NQ 2957.5, -3.0
Short 3 TF 978.4, 978.4, 978.7, +1.0, +1.0, -0.3
Short 1 NQ 2959.75, -2.0
Short 2 TF 979.6, 979.7, -.6, -.7
Short 3 NQ 2962.5, 2963.75, 29.63.73, -1.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 YM 115127, 15127, +7, +20
Short 3 YM 15149, 15157, 15157, -0, +7, -0
Short 2 TF 983.3, 983.4, 983.3, +0.5, +0.4, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 2976.0, +4.5
Short 1 TF 985.8, -0.5
Short 1 TF 985.8, +1.0
Short 1 TF 985.9, +1.0
Total YM +35
Total NQ +2.5
Total TF +2.3
For me, breakout trades are the big mental block. And there's always an excuse not to take them when they appear to match the filters required in my Trade Plan. Today, in sharp contrast to yesterday's cold porridge, Goldie Lock's porridge was way too hot to handle, and that was my excuse for not buying several breakout levels after the reversal got started from the LOD. (low of day). And because of it's extra volatility on breakouts but lower price per pt risk, will add a rule to Trade Plan to take all 2nd trend NQ inflections at the Sequent and SubSequent levels. Perhaps that will help ease me past the mental block that has kept me taking no breakouts whatsoever. Have a Plan. Trade the Plan.
Mon Jun 10 Trades & Summary
20130610
Long 3 ES 1642.5, 1641.25, -0, +2.0 +2.0
Long 2 YM 15212, 15212, +7, -0
Long 1 NQ 2987.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 987.3, -0
Short 1 TF 987.8, -0.3
Short 1 NQ 2999.75, -0
Short 2 ES 1646.0, 1646.0, +1.5, +1.0
Short 1 TF 990.3, +0.6
Total ES +6.5
Total NQ +4.0
Total YM +7
Total TF +0.3
Some days are better for trading than others... You take what's offered. But I did miss a breakout play that would have required some faith and patience on even a good day....today would have required far more than I had on store for a Monday morning. ...but that's no real excuse... trade your plan....
Long 3 ES 1642.5, 1641.25, -0, +2.0 +2.0
Long 2 YM 15212, 15212, +7, -0
Long 1 NQ 2987.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 987.3, -0
Short 1 TF 987.8, -0.3
Short 1 NQ 2999.75, -0
Short 2 ES 1646.0, 1646.0, +1.5, +1.0
Short 1 TF 990.3, +0.6
Total ES +6.5
Total NQ +4.0
Total YM +7
Total TF +0.3
Some days are better for trading than others... You take what's offered. But I did miss a breakout play that would have required some faith and patience on even a good day....today would have required far more than I had on store for a Monday morning. ...but that's no real excuse... trade your plan....
Fri Jun 7 Trades & Journal
20130607
Long 2 TF 977.7, 977.3, +.08, +2.0
Short 1 ES 1631.5, -1.5
Short 2 ES 1634.5, 1634.0, -1.0, +2.0
Short 2 YM 15155, 15155, +7, -7
Short 1 TF 984.0, -0.3
Short 1 TF 983.9, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 2974.5, -2.0
Short 1 ES 1637.5, -0.75
Short 2 TF 986.6, 986.4, +1, +2.0
Short 1 YM 15194, -6
Short 2 YM 15194, 15195, -5, -6
Short 2 YM 15196, 15196, +9, -0
Total ES -1.5
Total YM -8
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +4.8
Bad habits are very hard to break. And you'd think that someone who thinks and writes about developing trading habits would have a far easier time changing his own. Maybe it's the old story of the cobbler's children going shoeless or something, but today I traded my opinions about the market in several key places instead of the inflection breakout signals on the way up staring off the page of my own Trade Plan. Of interest to note that some of my students whose habits less ingrained have succeeded in acquiring breakout trigger habits from our ValhallaFutures lesson sessions better than the instructor giving them.... :) Want to wish all a good weekend... Work on your Trade Plan, and rehearse your Trade Plan behavior for the trade models you've identified so that you can more easily take them regardless of your trend opinion when they appear at the right edge of your video screen each day.
Long 2 TF 977.7, 977.3, +.08, +2.0
Short 1 ES 1631.5, -1.5
Short 2 ES 1634.5, 1634.0, -1.0, +2.0
Short 2 YM 15155, 15155, +7, -7
Short 1 TF 984.0, -0.3
Short 1 TF 983.9, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 2974.5, -2.0
Short 1 ES 1637.5, -0.75
Short 2 TF 986.6, 986.4, +1, +2.0
Short 1 YM 15194, -6
Short 2 YM 15194, 15195, -5, -6
Short 2 YM 15196, 15196, +9, -0
Total ES -1.5
Total YM -8
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +4.8
Bad habits are very hard to break. And you'd think that someone who thinks and writes about developing trading habits would have a far easier time changing his own. Maybe it's the old story of the cobbler's children going shoeless or something, but today I traded my opinions about the market in several key places instead of the inflection breakout signals on the way up staring off the page of my own Trade Plan. Of interest to note that some of my students whose habits less ingrained have succeeded in acquiring breakout trigger habits from our ValhallaFutures lesson sessions better than the instructor giving them.... :) Want to wish all a good weekend... Work on your Trade Plan, and rehearse your Trade Plan behavior for the trade models you've identified so that you can more easily take them regardless of your trend opinion when they appear at the right edge of your video screen each day.
Thurs Jun 6 Trades & Journal
20130606
Long 1 NQ 2939.75, +3.0
Short 2 YM 15979, +7, +10
Long 1 TF 971.3, -0.4
Long 2 NQ 2939.75, 2939.0, -2.0, -1.25
Long 2 NQ 2936.0, 2936.25, +2.0, +5.0
Long 1 ES 16.09.25, -1.0
Long 1 TF 970.7, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 1635.25, -0.0
Long 2 TF 969.7, 969.7, +1.0, +2.0
Total ES -1.0
Total YM +17
Total NQ +6.75
Total TF +2.1
The NQ can often be the most volatile contract on the board. When fading it at what might be termed a full chaos fractal in my trade plan entry, I often get stp'd out. But how to use such volatility and excess to advantage? Take the inflection breakout triggers in the 2nd trend direction of the 1st hour frame. Today, was given just such an opp to go short as the market collapsed from the early 'Jump Ball' opening. But I balked. True, I had been short the YM at resistance near its high, but had already exited that short on initial support, and could have easily shifted my focus to the developing NQ signal. Stay focused. The purpose of having a trade plan is for seeing the potential setup models in advance as they are forming. You have a trade entry description. It has to fulfill certain requirements. It's just a quick mental checklist you have rehearsed a hundred times before. When the trade arrives, you should be prepared to take it. As an added help to getting prepared, I resolve to review my trade plan briefly before the cash NYSE market opens. Rehearse this mental preparation: "When the inflection breakout opportunity is setting up, be prepared to take the trade. Set your stop-entry, and let the market work. If this trade were not so consistently successful, it wouldn't be in my trade plan to take. Trade the plan. Stay disciplined.
Long 1 NQ 2939.75, +3.0
Short 2 YM 15979, +7, +10
Long 1 TF 971.3, -0.4
Long 2 NQ 2939.75, 2939.0, -2.0, -1.25
Long 2 NQ 2936.0, 2936.25, +2.0, +5.0
Long 1 ES 16.09.25, -1.0
Long 1 TF 970.7, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 1635.25, -0.0
Long 2 TF 969.7, 969.7, +1.0, +2.0
Total ES -1.0
Total YM +17
Total NQ +6.75
Total TF +2.1
The NQ can often be the most volatile contract on the board. When fading it at what might be termed a full chaos fractal in my trade plan entry, I often get stp'd out. But how to use such volatility and excess to advantage? Take the inflection breakout triggers in the 2nd trend direction of the 1st hour frame. Today, was given just such an opp to go short as the market collapsed from the early 'Jump Ball' opening. But I balked. True, I had been short the YM at resistance near its high, but had already exited that short on initial support, and could have easily shifted my focus to the developing NQ signal. Stay focused. The purpose of having a trade plan is for seeing the potential setup models in advance as they are forming. You have a trade entry description. It has to fulfill certain requirements. It's just a quick mental checklist you have rehearsed a hundred times before. When the trade arrives, you should be prepared to take it. As an added help to getting prepared, I resolve to review my trade plan briefly before the cash NYSE market opens. Rehearse this mental preparation: "When the inflection breakout opportunity is setting up, be prepared to take the trade. Set your stop-entry, and let the market work. If this trade were not so consistently successful, it wouldn't be in my trade plan to take. Trade the plan. Stay disciplined.
Wed Jun 5 Trades
20130605
Short 1 NQ 2971.5, -3.0
Short 2 TF 980.6, +1.0, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15128, 15134, -11, -6
Long 1 TF 971.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 971.4, +1.6
Short 1 TF 974.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 975.7, 975.0, -0.0, +0.5
Short 2 TF 976.5, 976.5, +1.0, +2.0
Short 2 ES 1623.25, 1623.25, +1.5, +4.0
Total NQ -3.0
Total YM -17
Total ES +5.5
Total TF +6.1
Short 1 NQ 2971.5, -3.0
Short 2 TF 980.6, +1.0, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15128, 15134, -11, -6
Long 1 TF 971.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 971.4, +1.6
Short 1 TF 974.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 975.7, 975.0, -0.0, +0.5
Short 2 TF 976.5, 976.5, +1.0, +2.0
Short 2 ES 1623.25, 1623.25, +1.5, +4.0
Total NQ -3.0
Total YM -17
Total ES +5.5
Total TF +6.1
Tues Jun 4 Trades & Journal
20130604
Short 1 TF 993.4, -0.5
Short 3 NQ 3003.25, 3003.25, 3003.25, +2, 0, +3.0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 881.5, -0.5
Long 1 ES 1640.75, +2.0
Short 1 TF 991.2, -0.4
Short 2 NQ 3005.25, 3006.25, -0, +4.0
Short 2 TF 993.0, 992.8, +2.0, +1.0
Long 1 ES 1639.0, -0.25
Long 1 TF 984.7, +1.0
Total ES +1.75
Total NQ +14.0
Total TF +2.6
When a position wears you down in consolidation, the mental temptation is to get out at any profit, when one finally appears, lighten up, and tighten down remaining stop-loss orders. I see nothing wrong with lightening up and tightening down, but if you survive the last position, and price definitively breaks your way, especially if its in a contract that is following a total breakdown by the leadership of the mini-Russell, its best to let your profits run on that surviving position. This is one of the hardest things to do... let your profits run. And the longer you held a position waiting for a complete turn of direction, the more interested you are in alleviating the angst emotionally by a quick exit, but the more the position is likely to trend back to the opposite end of the range and now be a big winner. The journal is an exercise in reminding yourself of what habits are better than others, what habits should be broken and replaced. Keep up your journal. Your own trades can be the best education available for your trading.
Short 1 TF 993.4, -0.5
Short 3 NQ 3003.25, 3003.25, 3003.25, +2, 0, +3.0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 881.5, -0.5
Long 1 ES 1640.75, +2.0
Short 1 TF 991.2, -0.4
Short 2 NQ 3005.25, 3006.25, -0, +4.0
Short 2 TF 993.0, 992.8, +2.0, +1.0
Long 1 ES 1639.0, -0.25
Long 1 TF 984.7, +1.0
Total ES +1.75
Total NQ +14.0
Total TF +2.6
When a position wears you down in consolidation, the mental temptation is to get out at any profit, when one finally appears, lighten up, and tighten down remaining stop-loss orders. I see nothing wrong with lightening up and tightening down, but if you survive the last position, and price definitively breaks your way, especially if its in a contract that is following a total breakdown by the leadership of the mini-Russell, its best to let your profits run on that surviving position. This is one of the hardest things to do... let your profits run. And the longer you held a position waiting for a complete turn of direction, the more interested you are in alleviating the angst emotionally by a quick exit, but the more the position is likely to trend back to the opposite end of the range and now be a big winner. The journal is an exercise in reminding yourself of what habits are better than others, what habits should be broken and replaced. Keep up your journal. Your own trades can be the best education available for your trading.
Mon Jun 3 Trades & Summary
Long 1 NQ 2985.25, -1.0
Long 1 TF 984.8, -1.4
Long 1 ES 1628.25, +2.0
Long 2 TF 982.9, 981.6, -0, +1.8
Long 2 TF 983.8, 984.6, -0.3, -0.7
Long 1 TF 981.2, -1.4
Long 2 TF 979.5, 979.5, +1.4, +4.3
Long 1 TF 986.2, +1.5
Short 1 TF 992.4, +1.5
Long 2 TF 988.8, 987.4, -2.0, -0.6
Long 2 TF 986.0, 985.5, -1.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 985.3, 985.3, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 YM 15149, 15149, 15151, +10, -5, -7
Long 2 ES 1624.50, 1624.25, +4.0, +1.5
Long 2 TF 980.8, 981.0, +2.0, +0.4
Total NQ -1.0
Total YM -2
Total ES +7.5
Total TF +3.6
Behavior governors are like stp-loss orders in the market. They are rules designed to trigger a halt to our trading. Having a loss limit dollar amount in your Trade Plan is one such governor. ...but have a daily profit target is one too. Today, I showed the unfortunate tendency of being drawn to the big volatility like the proverbial moth to the flame. At one point, I had over 6 TF pts in profit, but nearly gave it all back on a brutal sell-off after the HOD was in (High-of-Day). I did recover a good piece of it as the buy signals renewed, but there was no reason for me to have traded into that decline anyway. Not for technical reasons, but simply because I had hit my profit goals for the 1st Frame Session of the day, from 9:30am to 11:15am ET. I'm not a big trader. And using the signal method I employee puts a practical limit on how many signals are likely to occur within a single frame of the day. If you reach that goal at anywhere near your total allowable trades per session, step aside. Profit goals can be as valuable as loss limits. This is a business, and it is a particular affect of the gambler to trade through his profits until he's lost it all. Stay disciplined.
Long 1 TF 984.8, -1.4
Long 1 ES 1628.25, +2.0
Long 2 TF 982.9, 981.6, -0, +1.8
Long 2 TF 983.8, 984.6, -0.3, -0.7
Long 1 TF 981.2, -1.4
Long 2 TF 979.5, 979.5, +1.4, +4.3
Long 1 TF 986.2, +1.5
Short 1 TF 992.4, +1.5
Long 2 TF 988.8, 987.4, -2.0, -0.6
Long 2 TF 986.0, 985.5, -1.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 985.3, 985.3, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 YM 15149, 15149, 15151, +10, -5, -7
Long 2 ES 1624.50, 1624.25, +4.0, +1.5
Long 2 TF 980.8, 981.0, +2.0, +0.4
Total NQ -1.0
Total YM -2
Total ES +7.5
Total TF +3.6
Behavior governors are like stp-loss orders in the market. They are rules designed to trigger a halt to our trading. Having a loss limit dollar amount in your Trade Plan is one such governor. ...but have a daily profit target is one too. Today, I showed the unfortunate tendency of being drawn to the big volatility like the proverbial moth to the flame. At one point, I had over 6 TF pts in profit, but nearly gave it all back on a brutal sell-off after the HOD was in (High-of-Day). I did recover a good piece of it as the buy signals renewed, but there was no reason for me to have traded into that decline anyway. Not for technical reasons, but simply because I had hit my profit goals for the 1st Frame Session of the day, from 9:30am to 11:15am ET. I'm not a big trader. And using the signal method I employee puts a practical limit on how many signals are likely to occur within a single frame of the day. If you reach that goal at anywhere near your total allowable trades per session, step aside. Profit goals can be as valuable as loss limits. This is a business, and it is a particular affect of the gambler to trade through his profits until he's lost it all. Stay disciplined.
Fri May 31 Trades & Journal
20130531
Short 1 NQ 3008.5, +3.0
Short 1 TF 992.4, +1.4
Short 1 ES 1652.5, -0.5
Short 1 YM 15318, +10
Short 1 TF 992.4, +1.0
Long 2 TF 990.8, 990.3, -1.0, -0.4
Long 2 TF 988.6, +1.0, +1.5
Total ES -0.5
Total NQ +3.0
Total YM +10
Total TF +3.5
Some similarities to yesterday's opening for the TF, and Tuesday's opening for the YM, but I missed both opening breakout plays. Those require some real focus and attention to the subtlest detail in the very early bar formations... and a special willingness to play a breakout. This has never been a skill I have enjoyed, but I will continue to point out my shortcomings in this regard with the intention of eventually overcoming the mental block I seem to have against it. Today's TF early spike had similarities to yesterday's, but this one didn't stop me out, and the short signal came right at the gap-close. Same for YM and ES. On a pullback long, got stopped out as it melted through initial support, but recouped losses + a net profit with a re-entry, as the signal was just as valid lower down... in fact, better. See yesterday's comments.... ...and a good weekend to all...
Short 1 NQ 3008.5, +3.0
Short 1 TF 992.4, +1.4
Short 1 ES 1652.5, -0.5
Short 1 YM 15318, +10
Short 1 TF 992.4, +1.0
Long 2 TF 990.8, 990.3, -1.0, -0.4
Long 2 TF 988.6, +1.0, +1.5
Total ES -0.5
Total NQ +3.0
Total YM +10
Total TF +3.5
Some similarities to yesterday's opening for the TF, and Tuesday's opening for the YM, but I missed both opening breakout plays. Those require some real focus and attention to the subtlest detail in the very early bar formations... and a special willingness to play a breakout. This has never been a skill I have enjoyed, but I will continue to point out my shortcomings in this regard with the intention of eventually overcoming the mental block I seem to have against it. Today's TF early spike had similarities to yesterday's, but this one didn't stop me out, and the short signal came right at the gap-close. Same for YM and ES. On a pullback long, got stopped out as it melted through initial support, but recouped losses + a net profit with a re-entry, as the signal was just as valid lower down... in fact, better. See yesterday's comments.... ...and a good weekend to all...
Thur May 30 Trades & Journal
20130530
Short 2 TF 992.2, 993.2, -1.4, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 3007.25, -2.0
Short 2 TF 994.7, 994.7, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 995.0, 995.0, +1.0, +1.5
Short 3 ES 1657.00, 1657.25, 1657.75, +0.5, +2.0, +3.0
Long 1 TF 991., +1.0
Long 2 TF 989.2, 989.1, +1.2, +0.5
Short NQ 3013.75, -1.75
Short 1 TF 990.7, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 3014.75, -0.0
Short 1 TF 992.1, +2.0
Long 1 TF 988.9, +1.0
Total ES +5.5
Total NQ -3.75
Total TF +4.7
Recovering from an initial signal failure can be jarring. Today, the big spike in TF hit 3 resistance levels during the short signal zone on the final push up. It stp'd me out twice, but when it finally hit yesterday's globex night high, I rallied confidence to short it a third time. A short signal for the ES followed quickly after that. Although I didn't ride the TF down to its next solid buy signal, I did recapture most all of my losses, while the ES short made a the first net profit of the day. It use to be much harder for me to re-enter a position after being stopped out, but as long as the signal is still valid, then that is what the game plan calls for. Volatility can be your friend, but only if you wait patiently for the signals to appear, and quit re-entering when those signals are overcome and cancel out. Having a tight trade plan with precise entry models helps keep both the fear and the doubt at bay. Just follow your plan. If it works far more often than it fails, the net result should be profitable.
Short 2 TF 992.2, 993.2, -1.4, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 3007.25, -2.0
Short 2 TF 994.7, 994.7, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 995.0, 995.0, +1.0, +1.5
Short 3 ES 1657.00, 1657.25, 1657.75, +0.5, +2.0, +3.0
Long 1 TF 991., +1.0
Long 2 TF 989.2, 989.1, +1.2, +0.5
Short NQ 3013.75, -1.75
Short 1 TF 990.7, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 3014.75, -0.0
Short 1 TF 992.1, +2.0
Long 1 TF 988.9, +1.0
Total ES +5.5
Total NQ -3.75
Total TF +4.7
Recovering from an initial signal failure can be jarring. Today, the big spike in TF hit 3 resistance levels during the short signal zone on the final push up. It stp'd me out twice, but when it finally hit yesterday's globex night high, I rallied confidence to short it a third time. A short signal for the ES followed quickly after that. Although I didn't ride the TF down to its next solid buy signal, I did recapture most all of my losses, while the ES short made a the first net profit of the day. It use to be much harder for me to re-enter a position after being stopped out, but as long as the signal is still valid, then that is what the game plan calls for. Volatility can be your friend, but only if you wait patiently for the signals to appear, and quit re-entering when those signals are overcome and cancel out. Having a tight trade plan with precise entry models helps keep both the fear and the doubt at bay. Just follow your plan. If it works far more often than it fails, the net result should be profitable.
Wed May 29 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130529
Long 1 TF 987.3, +1.2
Short 1 TF 989.4, +1.2
Short 2 YM 15306, 15305, -5, +7
Short 1 NQ 2995.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 991.0, +0.2
Short 1 TF 990.4, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 2995.75, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 2995.25, +4.0
Long 1 TF 984.4, -0.4
Short 1 TF 983.9, -0.4
Short 1 TF 983.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 981.6, +1.0
Long 1 TF 980.1, -0.2
Long 1 TF 979.2, -0.0
Short 1 TF 983.8, +1.0
Total YM +2
Total NQ +2.5
Total TF +5.2
Although TF trades showed good profits in early going, a hesitation at an ES short signal kept me on the sidelines for the big decline. Inflection trigger levels in the TF after it got started just chopped me up. This is typical of 1st Trend Direction breakdown triggers. Signals are in place for further extension, but breakouts are choppy and require larger stp's and some faith. The one good thing I can say about the decline is that I did not lose much trying to fish for the bottom. These extensions have to run their course, and when a bounce was finally in place, was able to take a quick exit short from resistance near the end of the 1st Frame (11:15am ET). So except for hesitating at the ES HOD for a short entry, I can say that I mostly traded my plan, and quit as usual at the end of the session as the early volatility was subsiding. Stay within your Trade Plan. If profits are alluding you, then perhaps your Plan needs to identify better opportunities. If your entry signals are good, then improvement will come as you override the mental blocks that keep you from taking entries in your plan. Discipline takes repeated practice. And it takes witnessing consistent payoffs to your entry signals before you have the full confidence and faith in taking them.
20130529
Long 1 TF 987.3, +1.2
Short 1 TF 989.4, +1.2
Short 2 YM 15306, 15305, -5, +7
Short 1 NQ 2995.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 991.0, +0.2
Short 1 TF 990.4, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 2995.75, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 2995.25, +4.0
Long 1 TF 984.4, -0.4
Short 1 TF 983.9, -0.4
Short 1 TF 983.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 981.6, +1.0
Long 1 TF 980.1, -0.2
Long 1 TF 979.2, -0.0
Short 1 TF 983.8, +1.0
Total YM +2
Total NQ +2.5
Total TF +5.2
Although TF trades showed good profits in early going, a hesitation at an ES short signal kept me on the sidelines for the big decline. Inflection trigger levels in the TF after it got started just chopped me up. This is typical of 1st Trend Direction breakdown triggers. Signals are in place for further extension, but breakouts are choppy and require larger stp's and some faith. The one good thing I can say about the decline is that I did not lose much trying to fish for the bottom. These extensions have to run their course, and when a bounce was finally in place, was able to take a quick exit short from resistance near the end of the 1st Frame (11:15am ET). So except for hesitating at the ES HOD for a short entry, I can say that I mostly traded my plan, and quit as usual at the end of the session as the early volatility was subsiding. Stay within your Trade Plan. If profits are alluding you, then perhaps your Plan needs to identify better opportunities. If your entry signals are good, then improvement will come as you override the mental blocks that keep you from taking entries in your plan. Discipline takes repeated practice. And it takes witnessing consistent payoffs to your entry signals before you have the full confidence and faith in taking them.
Tues May 28 Trades & Journal
20130528
Short 3 TF 1001.9, 1001.9, 1002.2, +.5, -1.1, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 3032.0, 3034.0, -1, -3
Short 2 ES 1670.75, 1670.5, +0.5, -0.75
Short 2 TF 1004.2, 1004.3, +0.5, -0.1
Short 2 TF 1004.1, 1004.4, -0.4, -0.7
Short 2 YM 15501, 15501, -7, -7
Short 2 YM 15506, 15505, +7, +12
Long 1 TF 1003.0, +1.0
Long 1 ES 1665.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1000.5, 1000.5, +0.5, +1.2
Total YM +5
Total ES -0.25
Total NQ -4
Total TF +1.9
A student observed that the TF gave an ORB breakout signal today, and would have captured the early explosive Gap-n-Go rally that followed. But it was clearly eye-of-the-beholder, and I didn't recognize it. Faced stp-outs at the turn signals at the highs, except YM, so was mostly playing catch-up to losses in the early going. Big gaps often suck the energy right out of the markets, but today, it was more of surviving the slop at the turn signals, so is hard to learn from one's stp-outs on a day like today. Sometimes, just treading water is an ok day.
Short 3 TF 1001.9, 1001.9, 1002.2, +.5, -1.1, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 3032.0, 3034.0, -1, -3
Short 2 ES 1670.75, 1670.5, +0.5, -0.75
Short 2 TF 1004.2, 1004.3, +0.5, -0.1
Short 2 TF 1004.1, 1004.4, -0.4, -0.7
Short 2 YM 15501, 15501, -7, -7
Short 2 YM 15506, 15505, +7, +12
Long 1 TF 1003.0, +1.0
Long 1 ES 1665.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1000.5, 1000.5, +0.5, +1.2
Total YM +5
Total ES -0.25
Total NQ -4
Total TF +1.9
A student observed that the TF gave an ORB breakout signal today, and would have captured the early explosive Gap-n-Go rally that followed. But it was clearly eye-of-the-beholder, and I didn't recognize it. Faced stp-outs at the turn signals at the highs, except YM, so was mostly playing catch-up to losses in the early going. Big gaps often suck the energy right out of the markets, but today, it was more of surviving the slop at the turn signals, so is hard to learn from one's stp-outs on a day like today. Sometimes, just treading water is an ok day.
Fri May 24 Trades & Summary
20130524
Long 2 NQ 2975.0, 2974.0, +3.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 2972.5, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 2969.25 +3.0
Long 1 ES 1638.0, -0.75
Long 1 TF 974.2, +1.0
Long 1 ES 1636.0, -1.25
Long 1 NQ 2966.5, -1.0
Long 2 ES 1635.5, 1635.5, +1.25, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 2977.25, +2.0
Long 2 TF 975.6, 975.7, +2.0, +0.5
Total ES +2.25
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +3.5
As Ice Cube once said, "today was a good day....didn't even have to use my A K " . Stayed with the plan pretty well but did miss the TF inflection. Instead, I focused on the signals I could use effectively, like the ES and NQ. Stay flexible. You have to monitor all 4 contracts, the YM, ES, NQ and TF if you expect to capture the trends and the breakouts. And besides, they lend such better trend signals for the bigger picture when seen as a whole. Want to wish all a good Memorial Weekend....
Long 2 NQ 2975.0, 2974.0, +3.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 2972.5, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 2969.25 +3.0
Long 1 ES 1638.0, -0.75
Long 1 TF 974.2, +1.0
Long 1 ES 1636.0, -1.25
Long 1 NQ 2966.5, -1.0
Long 2 ES 1635.5, 1635.5, +1.25, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 2977.25, +2.0
Long 2 TF 975.6, 975.7, +2.0, +0.5
Total ES +2.25
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +3.5
As Ice Cube once said, "today was a good day....didn't even have to use my A K " . Stayed with the plan pretty well but did miss the TF inflection. Instead, I focused on the signals I could use effectively, like the ES and NQ. Stay flexible. You have to monitor all 4 contracts, the YM, ES, NQ and TF if you expect to capture the trends and the breakouts. And besides, they lend such better trend signals for the bigger picture when seen as a whole. Want to wish all a good Memorial Weekend....
Thurs May 23 Trades and Journal
20130522
Long 1 YM 15187, +10
Long 1 NQ 2968.75, +3.0
Short 3 TF 977.3, 977.0, 977.3, +0.8, -0.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 973.1, -0.4
Long 2 YM 15205, 15204, +5, +19
Total YM +34
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +1.0
There a subtle difference between being patient and striking without hesitation when the 'iron is hot'. Today, I missed a pretty obvious buy signal in the ES by hesitating when it arrived. ..and it came conveniently after the 10am econ number was out and being well digested. Before I blinked, the ES had ralllied 10 pts, without any participation by me whatsoever. Thereafter, I was left with counter trend shorts in the TF. I exited those a bit too quickly as it turned out, but counter trend trades are safer with quick exits, and these were definitely 2nd trend shorts, always riskier. But with some profits in the YM and NQ, was an ok day just the same. Nothing smarts more than a trade you miss. And the missed ES trade continues to smart even after the end of the 1st Frame where I normally cease my trading for the day. Missed trade opps usually smart even more than actual cash losses. Such is the way it works on us. Be quick when the signal is clear, and slow to exit as the trade develops. That is usually the right mix of patience and immediacy.
Long 1 YM 15187, +10
Long 1 NQ 2968.75, +3.0
Short 3 TF 977.3, 977.0, 977.3, +0.8, -0.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 973.1, -0.4
Long 2 YM 15205, 15204, +5, +19
Total YM +34
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +1.0
There a subtle difference between being patient and striking without hesitation when the 'iron is hot'. Today, I missed a pretty obvious buy signal in the ES by hesitating when it arrived. ..and it came conveniently after the 10am econ number was out and being well digested. Before I blinked, the ES had ralllied 10 pts, without any participation by me whatsoever. Thereafter, I was left with counter trend shorts in the TF. I exited those a bit too quickly as it turned out, but counter trend trades are safer with quick exits, and these were definitely 2nd trend shorts, always riskier. But with some profits in the YM and NQ, was an ok day just the same. Nothing smarts more than a trade you miss. And the missed ES trade continues to smart even after the end of the 1st Frame where I normally cease my trading for the day. Missed trade opps usually smart even more than actual cash losses. Such is the way it works on us. Be quick when the signal is clear, and slow to exit as the trade develops. That is usually the right mix of patience and immediacy.
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