20140311
Long 1 TF 1201.0, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1198.9, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1198.1, 1198.1, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 ES 1873.5, 1873.5, -1.0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1194.2, 1194.2, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 NQ 3703.5, 3703.5, 3703.5, +2.0, +2.0, +7.0
Long 2 TF 1193.8, 1193.8, +1.0, +2.2
Long 2 TF 1192.9, 1192.9, +1.0, +1.8
Long 1 TF 1197.3, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1198.1, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1198.8, +1.8
Long 1 TF 1120.8, -.5
PM Trades
Long 2 TF 1191.3, 1190.8, -0.7, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1190.3, 1190.2, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1182.4, -0.4
Total ES -2.0
Total NQ +11.0
Total TF +3.9
It can't be stressed enough that you have to be ready execute the trades in your plan. If some require stp-n-rev positioning, then that must be all the more ready as it comes so quickly. Those trades should be announced in your head as 'long with stp-n-rev back to short', as opposed to just 'long' and taking that position, and then deciding it's a stp-n-rev a minute later. Even that might be too late to position for the order entry mechanics of properly adjusting the stops on the long and still getting the stp-n-rev short entries positioned. Be focused. The initial trend breaks of the 1st Frame by nature are the fastest usually of the day. Without practice and preparation, and seeing ahead to the possibility of the model's fruition, you don't have a chance to take advantage of the freshly breaking trends. I was too slow in two places in the early going that could have positioned me to participate on the downside before the buy signals finally came in solidly. Had I not been slow, it would have made the difference in not having to dig myself out of a hole before the true reversal signals did take place.
Mon Mar 10 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20140310
Long 2 NQ 3691. 3691.0, +2.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1193.3, 1193.3, -0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1192.3, 1192.2, -0.0, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1191.9, 1192.0, +1.3, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1191.5, -0.4
Short 2 NQ 3693.25, 3694.25, -2.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1195.5, 1196.1, -1.0, -0.5
Short 4 NQ 3695.75, 3695.75, 3695.75, 3695.75, -1.0, -1.0, -2.0, -2.0
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1195.8, 1195.8, +0.6, -0.3
Total NQ -9.0
Total TF -1.6
Volatility is only your friend if you're entry models match the price structure. Today, mine did not. The best thing you can do when you're out of sync is to cut your losses. Tomorrow is another day, and one day's losses among a good streak of winners does not mean the entry models are in doubt. Have a limit to your losses and stop-losses on your behavior. A bad day does not mean you'll have a bad week or a bad month. Stay focused.
20140310
Long 2 NQ 3691. 3691.0, +2.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1193.3, 1193.3, -0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1192.3, 1192.2, -0.0, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1191.9, 1192.0, +1.3, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1191.5, -0.4
Short 2 NQ 3693.25, 3694.25, -2.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1195.5, 1196.1, -1.0, -0.5
Short 4 NQ 3695.75, 3695.75, 3695.75, 3695.75, -1.0, -1.0, -2.0, -2.0
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1195.8, 1195.8, +0.6, -0.3
Total NQ -9.0
Total TF -1.6
Volatility is only your friend if you're entry models match the price structure. Today, mine did not. The best thing you can do when you're out of sync is to cut your losses. Tomorrow is another day, and one day's losses among a good streak of winners does not mean the entry models are in doubt. Have a limit to your losses and stop-losses on your behavior. A bad day does not mean you'll have a bad week or a bad month. Stay focused.
Fri Mar 7 Trades & Journal
20140307
Short 2 YM 16474, 17479, -3, +10
Short 2 YM 16486, 16486, +7, +20
Long 1 ES 1875.0, +2.0
Short 1 YM 16460, +25
Short 1 YM 16576, -3
Short 2 TF 1204.2, 1204.1, +2.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1204.7, -0.3
Total ES +2.0
Total YM +56
Total TF +2.2
In fast action, you have to see the trade models from your Trade Plan setting up before they arrive at the right edge of your video screen. By the time they've arrived, it is too late to get ready. You must be ready with your auto-trade strategy from your trade platform ready to be clicked in. If you have no trade models, then fast action is just a blur and by the time your tape reading skills have caught up with the intuition necessary for judgement, the trade is already gone. Discipline begins with having a Trade Plan in the first place. The Analyst is not allowed to trade.
Short 2 YM 16474, 17479, -3, +10
Short 2 YM 16486, 16486, +7, +20
Long 1 ES 1875.0, +2.0
Short 1 YM 16460, +25
Short 1 YM 16576, -3
Short 2 TF 1204.2, 1204.1, +2.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1204.7, -0.3
Total ES +2.0
Total YM +56
Total TF +2.2
In fast action, you have to see the trade models from your Trade Plan setting up before they arrive at the right edge of your video screen. By the time they've arrived, it is too late to get ready. You must be ready with your auto-trade strategy from your trade platform ready to be clicked in. If you have no trade models, then fast action is just a blur and by the time your tape reading skills have caught up with the intuition necessary for judgement, the trade is already gone. Discipline begins with having a Trade Plan in the first place. The Analyst is not allowed to trade.
Thurs Mar 6 Trades & Journal
20140306
Short 2 NQ 3735.25, 3735.75, -1.5, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 3735.5, 3736.25, -1.5, +1.25
Short 2 NQ 3736.5, 3736.75, +4.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1204.2, 1204.2, +0.5, -0.5
Long 3 NQ 3736.25, 3736.25, 3725.25, +3.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1203.7, 1203.7, -1.4, -1.4
Short 1 TF 1204.4, -0.1
Long 2 TF 1204.7, 1204.7, +0.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1204.9, 1204.7, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 3730.0, 3729.75, +3.25, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1203.2, 1204.4, +0.5, +0.2
PM trades:
Short 2 TF 1204.1, 1204.1, +0.5, +0.7
Total NQ +18.5
Total TF -0.3
A Trade Plan is designed first to identify the plentiful appearance of certain technical models whose outcome is very consistent. Without such a plan, you flounder with tape reading and intuition guided by an oft too random selection of technical trade tools. But sometimes your Trade Plan does not perform according to the typical model outcome. At such times, you have a Trade Management Plan that limits your losses. Today, TF traded outside the parameters of typical model outcome, but I took the trades I was supposed to take, and cannot fault a plan that works with good consistency. However, losses in the TF did compel me to exit trades in the NQ a bit earlier than intended as a way to insure that I would cover losses in the TF. Every trade should ideally stand on its own. ...easier said than done...! Stay focused.
PM Addendum: Sometimes it pays to be in front of the screen all day. Today would have been one of those days, as the model that failed to appear in the AM frame for the TF contract appeared in the PM frame at the piano drop low. I didn't return till the subsequent bounce was hitting resistance and was a short at that moment had become counter trend to the reversal. But that's ok. In general, since starting to limit trades to the 1st Frame, I've generally had better overall weekly results, and a more relaxed disposition to trading. With Serial Sequent, the opening action with its greater overall volatility is now accessible and shows better production. Stay disciplined.
Short 2 NQ 3735.25, 3735.75, -1.5, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 3735.5, 3736.25, -1.5, +1.25
Short 2 NQ 3736.5, 3736.75, +4.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1204.2, 1204.2, +0.5, -0.5
Long 3 NQ 3736.25, 3736.25, 3725.25, +3.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1203.7, 1203.7, -1.4, -1.4
Short 1 TF 1204.4, -0.1
Long 2 TF 1204.7, 1204.7, +0.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1204.9, 1204.7, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 3730.0, 3729.75, +3.25, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1203.2, 1204.4, +0.5, +0.2
PM trades:
Short 2 TF 1204.1, 1204.1, +0.5, +0.7
Total NQ +18.5
Total TF -0.3
A Trade Plan is designed first to identify the plentiful appearance of certain technical models whose outcome is very consistent. Without such a plan, you flounder with tape reading and intuition guided by an oft too random selection of technical trade tools. But sometimes your Trade Plan does not perform according to the typical model outcome. At such times, you have a Trade Management Plan that limits your losses. Today, TF traded outside the parameters of typical model outcome, but I took the trades I was supposed to take, and cannot fault a plan that works with good consistency. However, losses in the TF did compel me to exit trades in the NQ a bit earlier than intended as a way to insure that I would cover losses in the TF. Every trade should ideally stand on its own. ...easier said than done...! Stay focused.
PM Addendum: Sometimes it pays to be in front of the screen all day. Today would have been one of those days, as the model that failed to appear in the AM frame for the TF contract appeared in the PM frame at the piano drop low. I didn't return till the subsequent bounce was hitting resistance and was a short at that moment had become counter trend to the reversal. But that's ok. In general, since starting to limit trades to the 1st Frame, I've generally had better overall weekly results, and a more relaxed disposition to trading. With Serial Sequent, the opening action with its greater overall volatility is now accessible and shows better production. Stay disciplined.
Wed Mar 5 Trades & Journal
20140305
Long 1 TF 1204.7, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1202.3, 1202.3, +2.5, +2.2
Long 2 TF 1204.3, 1204.2, -0.5, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1202.1, 1202.1, +0.5, +1.6
Long 1 TF 1202.0, +2.2
Total TF +8.0
As difficult as it was to find turns and reversals yesterday was it easy to do so today. ...if your Trade Plan was inclusive of 1st Frame reversal models. And if so, you have to be willing to follow that plan in the blink of a moment when those models appear at the right edge of your video screen. Have a Trade Plan that demonstrates the market's propensity to repeat itself in confluent models. Trade your plan regardless of the news and any trend prejudice that creeps into your thinking.
Long 1 TF 1204.7, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1202.3, 1202.3, +2.5, +2.2
Long 2 TF 1204.3, 1204.2, -0.5, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1202.1, 1202.1, +0.5, +1.6
Long 1 TF 1202.0, +2.2
Total TF +8.0
As difficult as it was to find turns and reversals yesterday was it easy to do so today. ...if your Trade Plan was inclusive of 1st Frame reversal models. And if so, you have to be willing to follow that plan in the blink of a moment when those models appear at the right edge of your video screen. Have a Trade Plan that demonstrates the market's propensity to repeat itself in confluent models. Trade your plan regardless of the news and any trend prejudice that creeps into your thinking.
Tues Mar 4 Trades & Journal
20140304
Short 2 YM 16348, 16348, +7, +17
Long 2 YM 16322, 16324, +7, +20
Short 1 TF 1200.0, -1.4
Short 2 NQ 3715.75, 3715.75, -1.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1203.2, -1.4
Short 1 TF 1203.6, +2.8
Short 1 TF 1204.6, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1206.3, 1206.0, -0.1, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1206.9, 1206.6, +1.0, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1206.9, 1207.1, -0.6, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1207.5, 1207.7, +1.2, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3719.25, +3.0
Long 2 NQ 3714.0, 3714.25, +1.5, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1208.9, -0.5
PM trades:
Long 2 NQ 3712.75, 3712.75, +2.0, -1.25
Long 1 TF 1207.0, -0.0
Long 2 NQ 3710.25, 3709.75, -2.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1205.3, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1205.0, 1205.0, +0.4, -0.4
Total YM +51
Total NQ +2.25
Total TF -0.0
Most notable trait of the Persistent Trend Day....? They're unbelievable. How could anyone get in sync with such shallow zigzag pullbacks in order to position in-trend plays.... ? ...and yet, that's exactly what would have worked best in the skyrocketing TF contract. And along the way of the 1st Frame moon launch, I ignored all those in favor of counter-trend fades, which initially got me in the hole, and required hard work to just dig out of. The other mistake... giving up too quickly when the deeper pullbacks in the laggards like NQ afforded sweet entries at clear support zones. Laggards tend to play catch up in the company of such dramatic Persistent Trend Up leadership as displayed today by TF. With such models, it's far more likely that the laggards will gather steam than the leader give up such remarkable gains. But your faith in slow moving laggards is all the more easily shaken as you watch the leader push on, making you feel even more stupid for not playing it in-trend. So, you let go of the laggard after a sweet pullback entry way too soon, and miss out on its subsequent attempts at catch-up action to new price extremes. You'd think that seeing this model play out so often would temper some of its 'unbelievable' character aspects. But no, it's fresh each time. The Analyst and the Accountant replay their same emotions every time on such days, too. Don't expect them to change. They cannot change or be changed. They cannot change or be changed. They cannot change or be changed. That's why we leave the trading to the Trader, who is assigned to execute on models at the right edge of the video screen despite the flood of disbelief and apprehension. Be the Trader. Stay disciplined.
PM Addendum:
Faced multiple stp-outs trying to find TransitionTime turns and Last Texaco's. Can at least say that I stuck to Plan and traded the Plan, but the Plan failed to accommodate the action. Looking forward to manana for some fresh challenges....
Short 2 YM 16348, 16348, +7, +17
Long 2 YM 16322, 16324, +7, +20
Short 1 TF 1200.0, -1.4
Short 2 NQ 3715.75, 3715.75, -1.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1203.2, -1.4
Short 1 TF 1203.6, +2.8
Short 1 TF 1204.6, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1206.3, 1206.0, -0.1, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1206.9, 1206.6, +1.0, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1206.9, 1207.1, -0.6, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1207.5, 1207.7, +1.2, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3719.25, +3.0
Long 2 NQ 3714.0, 3714.25, +1.5, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1208.9, -0.5
PM trades:
Long 2 NQ 3712.75, 3712.75, +2.0, -1.25
Long 1 TF 1207.0, -0.0
Long 2 NQ 3710.25, 3709.75, -2.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1205.3, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1205.0, 1205.0, +0.4, -0.4
Total YM +51
Total NQ +2.25
Total TF -0.0
Most notable trait of the Persistent Trend Day....? They're unbelievable. How could anyone get in sync with such shallow zigzag pullbacks in order to position in-trend plays.... ? ...and yet, that's exactly what would have worked best in the skyrocketing TF contract. And along the way of the 1st Frame moon launch, I ignored all those in favor of counter-trend fades, which initially got me in the hole, and required hard work to just dig out of. The other mistake... giving up too quickly when the deeper pullbacks in the laggards like NQ afforded sweet entries at clear support zones. Laggards tend to play catch up in the company of such dramatic Persistent Trend Up leadership as displayed today by TF. With such models, it's far more likely that the laggards will gather steam than the leader give up such remarkable gains. But your faith in slow moving laggards is all the more easily shaken as you watch the leader push on, making you feel even more stupid for not playing it in-trend. So, you let go of the laggard after a sweet pullback entry way too soon, and miss out on its subsequent attempts at catch-up action to new price extremes. You'd think that seeing this model play out so often would temper some of its 'unbelievable' character aspects. But no, it's fresh each time. The Analyst and the Accountant replay their same emotions every time on such days, too. Don't expect them to change. They cannot change or be changed. They cannot change or be changed. They cannot change or be changed. That's why we leave the trading to the Trader, who is assigned to execute on models at the right edge of the video screen despite the flood of disbelief and apprehension. Be the Trader. Stay disciplined.
PM Addendum:
Faced multiple stp-outs trying to find TransitionTime turns and Last Texaco's. Can at least say that I stuck to Plan and traded the Plan, but the Plan failed to accommodate the action. Looking forward to manana for some fresh challenges....
Mon Mar 3 Trades & Journal
20140303
Short 2 TF 1173.9, 1174.0, +1.3, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1174.8, +1.7
PM trades:
Short 1 TF 1173.4, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1173.9, 1173.3, +1.5, +0.5
Total TF +5.2
It's best to trade with a profit goal for the day, and/or for the frame. Mine is 5 pts TF equivalent for the frame or the day. In early going when you hit, say, 3 pts in the TF, you can feel a mix of pressure to get the next trade right and angst over losing what you have. Going from +3 in the early going down to +1 while trying to get up to +5 is a discouraging thing. The Accountant speaks up loudly at such moments, and shouts out "You idiot!!" Today, I could hear those words from him even before he had to say it, and as a result missed a Trade Entry Model in the NQ that would have made my goals in the 1st Frame without even having to come back and trade again the Last Frame. After that, no other action fit my list of entry models. ....until the PM frame arrived. I'd like to say it was patience, but in truth, I simply came back to the screen and it was there talking to me.... Stepping away from the screen for while is not usually a bad idea, even if you miss a trade while you're gone.... Stay focused.
Short 2 TF 1173.9, 1174.0, +1.3, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1174.8, +1.7
PM trades:
Short 1 TF 1173.4, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1173.9, 1173.3, +1.5, +0.5
Total TF +5.2
It's best to trade with a profit goal for the day, and/or for the frame. Mine is 5 pts TF equivalent for the frame or the day. In early going when you hit, say, 3 pts in the TF, you can feel a mix of pressure to get the next trade right and angst over losing what you have. Going from +3 in the early going down to +1 while trying to get up to +5 is a discouraging thing. The Accountant speaks up loudly at such moments, and shouts out "You idiot!!" Today, I could hear those words from him even before he had to say it, and as a result missed a Trade Entry Model in the NQ that would have made my goals in the 1st Frame without even having to come back and trade again the Last Frame. After that, no other action fit my list of entry models. ....until the PM frame arrived. I'd like to say it was patience, but in truth, I simply came back to the screen and it was there talking to me.... Stepping away from the screen for while is not usually a bad idea, even if you miss a trade while you're gone.... Stay focused.
Fri Feb 28 Trades & Journal
20140228
Short 2 TF 1189.2, 1189.3, +1.7, +0.5
Short 2 YM 16313, 16315, -5, -2
Short 1 TF 1190.1, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 3719.0, -0.25
Short 1 TF 1192.9, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1193.4, 1193.3, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 NQ 3716.0, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 3714.25, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1190.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1189.9, 1189.9, -0.1, -0.2
Total YM -7
Total NQ +1.75
Total TF +2.4
Monthly Totals Feb 2014
Total ES +1.75
Total YM +127
Total NQ +51.75
Total TF +52.4
Did considerably better in Jan than Feb. Made a number of mistakes in February trading, but not really much more than usual. A lot more dramatic divergences in these last few weeks than normal, but it's pointless to blame the market for one's P&L outcome. The market just is. It's our job to find and include Trade Entry Models that work in all markets, and to execute a plan regardless of our 'read' on market action. Today, for example, failed to hold onto the short at the HOD simply because I let the whippy action shake my patience. Stay patient. Sometimes it's more important to stick with the position when the trade model is right regardless of our apprehensions as to it impending success or failure. Let the market decide what it wants. Be the Trader. Stay discipline.
Short 2 TF 1189.2, 1189.3, +1.7, +0.5
Short 2 YM 16313, 16315, -5, -2
Short 1 TF 1190.1, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 3719.0, -0.25
Short 1 TF 1192.9, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1193.4, 1193.3, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 NQ 3716.0, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 3714.25, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1190.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1189.9, 1189.9, -0.1, -0.2
Total YM -7
Total NQ +1.75
Total TF +2.4
Monthly Totals Feb 2014
Total ES +1.75
Total YM +127
Total NQ +51.75
Total TF +52.4
Did considerably better in Jan than Feb. Made a number of mistakes in February trading, but not really much more than usual. A lot more dramatic divergences in these last few weeks than normal, but it's pointless to blame the market for one's P&L outcome. The market just is. It's our job to find and include Trade Entry Models that work in all markets, and to execute a plan regardless of our 'read' on market action. Today, for example, failed to hold onto the short at the HOD simply because I let the whippy action shake my patience. Stay patient. Sometimes it's more important to stick with the position when the trade model is right regardless of our apprehensions as to it impending success or failure. Let the market decide what it wants. Be the Trader. Stay discipline.
Thur Feb 27 Trade Summary
20140227
Short 2 TF 1180.5, 1180.5, +0.5, +2.2
Short 1 NQ 3683.5, +4.0
Short 1 YM 16199, +14
Short 1 TF 1180.3, +1.2
Total NQ +4.0
Total YM +14
Total TF +3.9
Short 2 TF 1180.5, 1180.5, +0.5, +2.2
Short 1 NQ 3683.5, +4.0
Short 1 YM 16199, +14
Short 1 TF 1180.3, +1.2
Total NQ +4.0
Total YM +14
Total TF +3.9
Wed Feb 26 Trades & Journal
20140226
PM Trades:
Short 3 YM 16173, 16176, 16177, +14, +7, +7
Total YM +28
Was absent from the 1st frame action, NinjaTrader sponsored webinar. #4.
PM Trades:
Short 3 YM 16173, 16176, 16177, +14, +7, +7
Total YM +28
Was absent from the 1st frame action, NinjaTrader sponsored webinar. #4.
Tues Feb 25 Trades & Journal
20140225
Short 2 TF 1172.8, 1172.7, +0.5, +1.4
Long 2 NQ 3678.0, 3677.25, -2.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1170.9, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1170.1, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1169.8, -0.8
Long 1 TF 1169.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1168.6, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1171.5, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1172.9, -0.5
PM Trades
Long 4 TF 1172.6, 1172.6, 1173.0, 1172.6, +0.7, +1.0, -0.0, +1.2
Total NQ -3.0
Total TF +4.7
I let myself trade outside my plan once in the 1st Frame just after the news, when the TTI momentum gauge should have filtered a stp-n-rev out of consideration. This was simply weakness and perhaps a lapse in focus. Since an earlier stp-n-rev to short worked out just higher up, I let go my guard and got cockey with a strategy that I've had so much trouble implementing, but at a place at the 2nd occurrence when better focus and discipline would have deterred me. This is what trading is all about. Total focus and adherence to the Plan. Good for me that a classic Trade Plan setup in the Midday Frame just after the Noon Hour that paid off well and brought me in towards the minimum daily goal--something last week's trading failed to accomplish. Stay focused....
Short 2 TF 1172.8, 1172.7, +0.5, +1.4
Long 2 NQ 3678.0, 3677.25, -2.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1170.9, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1170.1, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1169.8, -0.8
Long 1 TF 1169.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1168.6, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1171.5, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1172.9, -0.5
PM Trades
Long 4 TF 1172.6, 1172.6, 1173.0, 1172.6, +0.7, +1.0, -0.0, +1.2
Total NQ -3.0
Total TF +4.7
I let myself trade outside my plan once in the 1st Frame just after the news, when the TTI momentum gauge should have filtered a stp-n-rev out of consideration. This was simply weakness and perhaps a lapse in focus. Since an earlier stp-n-rev to short worked out just higher up, I let go my guard and got cockey with a strategy that I've had so much trouble implementing, but at a place at the 2nd occurrence when better focus and discipline would have deterred me. This is what trading is all about. Total focus and adherence to the Plan. Good for me that a classic Trade Plan setup in the Midday Frame just after the Noon Hour that paid off well and brought me in towards the minimum daily goal--something last week's trading failed to accomplish. Stay focused....
Mon Feb 24 Trades & Journal
20140224
Short 4 TF 1171.1, 1171.3, 1171.3, 1171.3, +0.9, +0.5, +0.5, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1173.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1174.7, 1175.0, -0.7, -0.4
Short 2 NQ 3697.75, 3798.25, -0.5, -1.0
Short 3 TF 1177.9, 1178.3, 1179.0, -1.5, -0.1, +0.5
PM Trades:
Long 2 NQ 3694.5, 3694.5, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1177.0, +0.8
Total NQ +2.5
Total TF +0.5
Persistent Trend action is the most difficult to trade. In the early going price action is associated more with grinds and shallow pullbacks then nice fat swings. As this has always been my worst day model to find trades in, I am often grateful to walk away without a loss, and today was no exception. I did take two Last Chance Texaco longs in PM trading, but the TF payoff was paltry, and I exited the NQ way too soon to capture its full excursion. And other trade opps did appear, but while I was away from the screen. We'll look for better opps later in the week. Stay focused.
Short 4 TF 1171.1, 1171.3, 1171.3, 1171.3, +0.9, +0.5, +0.5, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1173.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1174.7, 1175.0, -0.7, -0.4
Short 2 NQ 3697.75, 3798.25, -0.5, -1.0
Short 3 TF 1177.9, 1178.3, 1179.0, -1.5, -0.1, +0.5
PM Trades:
Long 2 NQ 3694.5, 3694.5, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1177.0, +0.8
Total NQ +2.5
Total TF +0.5
Persistent Trend action is the most difficult to trade. In the early going price action is associated more with grinds and shallow pullbacks then nice fat swings. As this has always been my worst day model to find trades in, I am often grateful to walk away without a loss, and today was no exception. I did take two Last Chance Texaco longs in PM trading, but the TF payoff was paltry, and I exited the NQ way too soon to capture its full excursion. And other trade opps did appear, but while I was away from the screen. We'll look for better opps later in the week. Stay focused.
Fri Feb 21 Trades & Journal
20140221
Short 2 TF 1162.2, 1161.8, -0.5, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 3681.75, -2.0
Short 3 NQ 3683.75, 3683.75, 3685.0, -3.0, -3.0, +2.0
Short 3 TF 1164.0, 1164.3, 1164.3, +1.5, +0.5, +0.5
Long 2 NQ 3680.0, 3678.5, -0.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3678.75, -1.0
Long 2 YM 16118, 16118, +7, -5
Long 1 TF 1161.6, +2.0
Total NQ -5.0
Total YM +2
Total TF +4.5
About the best thing I can say about today's trades was the recognition that even though the last long in the TF contract was just shy of a completed entry model, the other 3 contracts were all giving buy signals, allowing me to 'borrow' those and trade in the TF. And it was that trade only that pushed me on near the daily profit goal. In general, my trading was not good this week. The trades were there, alright; but I wasn't. Am reviewing all the great breakout trades I balked at, and will make further resolve to spot them and go for them as they appear at the right edge of my video.
Short 2 TF 1162.2, 1161.8, -0.5, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 3681.75, -2.0
Short 3 NQ 3683.75, 3683.75, 3685.0, -3.0, -3.0, +2.0
Short 3 TF 1164.0, 1164.3, 1164.3, +1.5, +0.5, +0.5
Long 2 NQ 3680.0, 3678.5, -0.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3678.75, -1.0
Long 2 YM 16118, 16118, +7, -5
Long 1 TF 1161.6, +2.0
Total NQ -5.0
Total YM +2
Total TF +4.5
About the best thing I can say about today's trades was the recognition that even though the last long in the TF contract was just shy of a completed entry model, the other 3 contracts were all giving buy signals, allowing me to 'borrow' those and trade in the TF. And it was that trade only that pushed me on near the daily profit goal. In general, my trading was not good this week. The trades were there, alright; but I wasn't. Am reviewing all the great breakout trades I balked at, and will make further resolve to spot them and go for them as they appear at the right edge of my video.
Thurs Feb 20 Trades & Journal
20140220
Long 1 TF 1149.5, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1148.6, 1148.6, -0.6, -0.6
short 1 TF 1148.0, -0.6
Long 2 NQ 3647.5, 3648.0, -1.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1147.90, 1148.0, -0.7, +0.5
Long 1 NQ 3647.25, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1147.7, 1147.4, -0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1145.8, 1146.0, +3.0, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1151.2, 1151.1, +0.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1152.2, 1152.7, -1.0, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1155.8, 1155.9, +0.5, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1156.3, 1156.4, 1156.4, -0.4, +0.5, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1156.8, 1157.0, +1.0, +0.5
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF -0.2
Preparedness is critical at the Opening each day. A number of ORB breakout plays are worthy of Trade Plan inclusion, but it does little good to have them so listed if I'm unprepared to call the trade in the chat room and get my entry orders positioned accordingly. And today, an early NQ short would have put me ahead into the pre-Philly Fed setups long before. I will credit some persistence on my part to reposition after the pre-Philly Fed trades failed, as an immediate Bad-News-Buy Opp was posted and taken successfully. Thereafter, my failings were a TF inflection breakout that was simply too skeptical to take, which cost me an important profit, and later a well time short at the end-of-frame TF high, which I lost patience on and failed to benefit from its full excursion. These three were critical errors, and because of them I only tread water all morning. Be settled and ready at the ORB. Have the YM, NQ and TF charts aligned and visible and enlarged to easy-viewing scale. See the model, take the trade. As for the inflection, this one deserves both study and memorization. I have failed at this very inflection breakout trade many times, usually because I simply believed that the near-peaked momentum was too big a caution to engage with it. But often on such 2nd Trend inflections, the final spurt of momentum is the most powerful. I need to get this breakout trade into my model, and executed on a consistent basis going forward. No more balking if it fitst the entry model. And as for the last mistake, that of exiting too soon from being short so well into the 1st Frame HOD, it comes of an unwillingness to give up the piece of profit that keeps my day at breakeven, after returning several times to negative territory as the shot clock winds down on my 1st frame entry trade initiation limitations. For this, I am simply suffering regrets, not true recrimination. As an unsuccessful day's trading that gets back to b/e at the self-imposed time limits elapse is really no shame. Regain focus. Be prepared.
Long 1 TF 1149.5, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1148.6, 1148.6, -0.6, -0.6
short 1 TF 1148.0, -0.6
Long 2 NQ 3647.5, 3648.0, -1.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1147.90, 1148.0, -0.7, +0.5
Long 1 NQ 3647.25, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1147.7, 1147.4, -0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1145.8, 1146.0, +3.0, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1151.2, 1151.1, +0.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1152.2, 1152.7, -1.0, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1155.8, 1155.9, +0.5, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1156.3, 1156.4, 1156.4, -0.4, +0.5, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1156.8, 1157.0, +1.0, +0.5
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF -0.2
Preparedness is critical at the Opening each day. A number of ORB breakout plays are worthy of Trade Plan inclusion, but it does little good to have them so listed if I'm unprepared to call the trade in the chat room and get my entry orders positioned accordingly. And today, an early NQ short would have put me ahead into the pre-Philly Fed setups long before. I will credit some persistence on my part to reposition after the pre-Philly Fed trades failed, as an immediate Bad-News-Buy Opp was posted and taken successfully. Thereafter, my failings were a TF inflection breakout that was simply too skeptical to take, which cost me an important profit, and later a well time short at the end-of-frame TF high, which I lost patience on and failed to benefit from its full excursion. These three were critical errors, and because of them I only tread water all morning. Be settled and ready at the ORB. Have the YM, NQ and TF charts aligned and visible and enlarged to easy-viewing scale. See the model, take the trade. As for the inflection, this one deserves both study and memorization. I have failed at this very inflection breakout trade many times, usually because I simply believed that the near-peaked momentum was too big a caution to engage with it. But often on such 2nd Trend inflections, the final spurt of momentum is the most powerful. I need to get this breakout trade into my model, and executed on a consistent basis going forward. No more balking if it fitst the entry model. And as for the last mistake, that of exiting too soon from being short so well into the 1st Frame HOD, it comes of an unwillingness to give up the piece of profit that keeps my day at breakeven, after returning several times to negative territory as the shot clock winds down on my 1st frame entry trade initiation limitations. For this, I am simply suffering regrets, not true recrimination. As an unsuccessful day's trading that gets back to b/e at the self-imposed time limits elapse is really no shame. Regain focus. Be prepared.
Wed Feb 19 Trades & Journal
20140219
Short 1 NQ 36.76.75, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1156.5, +1.5
Short 2 YM 16153, 16153, +7, +7
Short 1 TF 1159.7, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1160.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1160.9, 1160.9, +0.4, +0.6
Short 1 ES 1844.0, +2.0
Total ES +2.0
Total YM +14
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +1.5
Some days are better for trading than others. The signals are conflicted and the excursions are small. A profitable day that accepts the outcome is far better than forcing more trades or stop-outs with a mental attitude that wants the markets to be something other than what they are, this day, this hour, at this juncture. Keep to the Trade Plan.
Short 1 NQ 36.76.75, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1156.5, +1.5
Short 2 YM 16153, 16153, +7, +7
Short 1 TF 1159.7, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1160.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1160.9, 1160.9, +0.4, +0.6
Short 1 ES 1844.0, +2.0
Total ES +2.0
Total YM +14
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +1.5
Some days are better for trading than others. The signals are conflicted and the excursions are small. A profitable day that accepts the outcome is far better than forcing more trades or stop-outs with a mental attitude that wants the markets to be something other than what they are, this day, this hour, at this juncture. Keep to the Trade Plan.
Tues Feb 18 Trades & Journal
20140218
Short 4 TF 1153.6, 1153.6, 1154.3, 1154.1, +0.5, -0.8, +1.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1153.9, +2.0
Short 3 TF 1151.6, 1151.6, 1152.0, -0.5, -1.1, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1152.0, 1153.0, -0.1, +1.0
Short 3 TF 1153.3, 1153.3,1153.3, +0.5, +0.5, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1155.1, 1155.2, 1155.3, -0.6, +0.5, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1155.4, 1155.5, -0.9, -0.8
Short 3 TF 1157.3, 1158.1, 1158.0, -1.4, -0.6, -0.7
PM Trades:
Long 2 TF 1156.6, 1156.1, +1.0, +0.5
Total TF -0.0
It seems an inconsistency on the one hand to use relative positions of all four contracts against each other with such classical tools as divergence to include in trade entry, and then on the other hand, to acknowledge that sometimes, especially with the Russell 2k, one contract can act so independently of the others. Such was clearly the case today. But my poor performance is no fault other than my own, as the TF displayed a perfect bull pre-breakout pause pattern today that would have easily launched a position into the 2nd leg of the Persistent Trend Up... had I not balked at the blatant divergence. I found myself too committed to the short at that time, and have no other explanation of my repeated attempts to short the TF after that successful breakout other than a stubborn, get-even kind of revenge trading. Don't allow an exhibition of stubborn, get-even kind of revenge to infect your trading. Stay disciplined. The game is not to prove you're right, and the market is wrong. The business is to wait til the right Trade Entry Model appears at the right edge of your video screen, and take the trade regardless of how you 'feel' or the trend prejudice you may be suffering from at that moment. Any reversal signal at support/resistance, can be a stop-n-reverse back into trend, if other technical model minutia are in place. Know your plan. Trade no other.
Short 4 TF 1153.6, 1153.6, 1154.3, 1154.1, +0.5, -0.8, +1.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1153.9, +2.0
Short 3 TF 1151.6, 1151.6, 1152.0, -0.5, -1.1, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1152.0, 1153.0, -0.1, +1.0
Short 3 TF 1153.3, 1153.3,1153.3, +0.5, +0.5, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1155.1, 1155.2, 1155.3, -0.6, +0.5, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1155.4, 1155.5, -0.9, -0.8
Short 3 TF 1157.3, 1158.1, 1158.0, -1.4, -0.6, -0.7
PM Trades:
Long 2 TF 1156.6, 1156.1, +1.0, +0.5
Total TF -0.0
It seems an inconsistency on the one hand to use relative positions of all four contracts against each other with such classical tools as divergence to include in trade entry, and then on the other hand, to acknowledge that sometimes, especially with the Russell 2k, one contract can act so independently of the others. Such was clearly the case today. But my poor performance is no fault other than my own, as the TF displayed a perfect bull pre-breakout pause pattern today that would have easily launched a position into the 2nd leg of the Persistent Trend Up... had I not balked at the blatant divergence. I found myself too committed to the short at that time, and have no other explanation of my repeated attempts to short the TF after that successful breakout other than a stubborn, get-even kind of revenge trading. Don't allow an exhibition of stubborn, get-even kind of revenge to infect your trading. Stay disciplined. The game is not to prove you're right, and the market is wrong. The business is to wait til the right Trade Entry Model appears at the right edge of your video screen, and take the trade regardless of how you 'feel' or the trend prejudice you may be suffering from at that moment. Any reversal signal at support/resistance, can be a stop-n-reverse back into trend, if other technical model minutia are in place. Know your plan. Trade no other.
Fri Feb 14 Trades & Journal
20140214
Long 2 NQ 3644.75, 3644.75, 3642.75, 3642.75, +1.0, +1.0, +2.0, +4.0
Long 3 NQ 3641.75, 3641.75, 3641.75, +2.0, +3.0, +4.5
Short 2 TF 1144.8, 1145.2, +0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF, 1143.6, 1143.6, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1143.8, 1143.9, -0.4, +0.1
Long 1 TF 1143.3, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1140.4, 1140.4, +1.0, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1140.5, +1.8
Total NQ +17.5
Total TF +4.0
To the intraday trader, big swings provide far better opportunities than the Persistent Trend Day we had yesterday. I have a trade plan for Persistent Trend Days, but I have trouble getting that hat on when the signs start showing up, and yesterday I let myself start the day infected with a trend prejudice. Stay focused. Trade the day that appears on your screen today. When it appears as a surprise and emotionally jarring, then it probably is appearing that way to a large majority of traders too, who like yourself, will probably spend the day fighting the trend instead of being in sync with it. Get in sync. When the signals are there, add to them the emotional appraisal that this day's action is a complete surprise and therefore your emotions themselves are a contrary opinion worth adding to your entry models. The market is closed Monday. Happy Birthday, George. We really miss you and Presidents like you, .....more than ever these days....
Long 2 NQ 3644.75, 3644.75, 3642.75, 3642.75, +1.0, +1.0, +2.0, +4.0
Long 3 NQ 3641.75, 3641.75, 3641.75, +2.0, +3.0, +4.5
Short 2 TF 1144.8, 1145.2, +0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF, 1143.6, 1143.6, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1143.8, 1143.9, -0.4, +0.1
Long 1 TF 1143.3, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1140.4, 1140.4, +1.0, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1140.5, +1.8
Total NQ +17.5
Total TF +4.0
To the intraday trader, big swings provide far better opportunities than the Persistent Trend Day we had yesterday. I have a trade plan for Persistent Trend Days, but I have trouble getting that hat on when the signs start showing up, and yesterday I let myself start the day infected with a trend prejudice. Stay focused. Trade the day that appears on your screen today. When it appears as a surprise and emotionally jarring, then it probably is appearing that way to a large majority of traders too, who like yourself, will probably spend the day fighting the trend instead of being in sync with it. Get in sync. When the signals are there, add to them the emotional appraisal that this day's action is a complete surprise and therefore your emotions themselves are a contrary opinion worth adding to your entry models. The market is closed Monday. Happy Birthday, George. We really miss you and Presidents like you, .....more than ever these days....
Thur Feb 13 Trades & Journal
20140213
Short 3 TF 1123.8, 1123.6, 1124.6, -1.4, ,-1.4, +0.5
Short 4 NQ 3616.75, 3616.75, 3617.75, -2.5, -2.5, +2, -2.0
Short 3 YM 15875, 15875, 15874, +7, -5, -5
Short 2 TF 1128.0, 1127.9, +0,5, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 3624.75, -3.0
Short 2 TF 1130.2, 1130.2, -0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1130.8, -0.5
Short 4 TF 1132.7, 1132.7, 1132.5, 1132.5, +2.0, +1.0, +1.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1129.5, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1135.5, -0.1
PM Trades
Short 2 TF 1145.0, 1144.8, +0.4, -0.5
Total YM -3
Total NQ -8.0
Total TF +2.4
The Persistent Trend Day Up can be the hardest day to trade.... unless you got the memo it was coming, then it's a piece of cake. Guess I missed the fax, because I started off fading this against a series of resistance numbers with bearish trend prejudice, and didn't dig my way out till a major pullback about half way to the whole thing. Perhaps even bigger failure was when a pullback buy opp was in hand, I dumped it quickly thinking the top was in, and that critical mistake kept me from participating in the unbelievable 3rd leg... at least it was unbelievable to me. Quitting after digging oneself out is no shame, but approaching any day with such serious trend prejudice is usually a critical mistake. The PM session offered a similar pullback, but as a bigger correction was so overdue, I balked when it failed to reach a better support number. The persistence in trend such days display and the ensuing pain from losing trades is really not the most annoying aspect to the Trader's psyche. It's actually the amazing profits offered that you failed to participate in. We'll see how things go tomorrow. Be alert. Pay attention to the Day Model signals. Examine your head for trend prejudice, and always consider the possibilities that you are wrong when the signs appear.
Short 3 TF 1123.8, 1123.6, 1124.6, -1.4, ,-1.4, +0.5
Short 4 NQ 3616.75, 3616.75, 3617.75, -2.5, -2.5, +2, -2.0
Short 3 YM 15875, 15875, 15874, +7, -5, -5
Short 2 TF 1128.0, 1127.9, +0,5, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 3624.75, -3.0
Short 2 TF 1130.2, 1130.2, -0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1130.8, -0.5
Short 4 TF 1132.7, 1132.7, 1132.5, 1132.5, +2.0, +1.0, +1.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1129.5, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1135.5, -0.1
PM Trades
Short 2 TF 1145.0, 1144.8, +0.4, -0.5
Total YM -3
Total NQ -8.0
Total TF +2.4
The Persistent Trend Day Up can be the hardest day to trade.... unless you got the memo it was coming, then it's a piece of cake. Guess I missed the fax, because I started off fading this against a series of resistance numbers with bearish trend prejudice, and didn't dig my way out till a major pullback about half way to the whole thing. Perhaps even bigger failure was when a pullback buy opp was in hand, I dumped it quickly thinking the top was in, and that critical mistake kept me from participating in the unbelievable 3rd leg... at least it was unbelievable to me. Quitting after digging oneself out is no shame, but approaching any day with such serious trend prejudice is usually a critical mistake. The PM session offered a similar pullback, but as a bigger correction was so overdue, I balked when it failed to reach a better support number. The persistence in trend such days display and the ensuing pain from losing trades is really not the most annoying aspect to the Trader's psyche. It's actually the amazing profits offered that you failed to participate in. We'll see how things go tomorrow. Be alert. Pay attention to the Day Model signals. Examine your head for trend prejudice, and always consider the possibilities that you are wrong when the signs appear.
Wed Feb 12 Trade Summary
20140212
Short 2 TF 1132.9, 1132.7, +0.5, -0,3
Short 2 TF 1135.3, 1135.4, +1.0, +0.5
Short 2 YM 16003, 16002, +7, +17
Long 2 YM 15964, 15965, -4, -5
Long 2 YM 15955, 19956, -5, -6
Long 3 YM 15952, 15952, 15954, +7, +11, -0
Long 3 TF 1130.6, 1130.6, 1129.6, -1.4, -1.4, -0.6
Long 2 YM 15930, 15930, +7, +11
Total YM +40
Total TF -1.7
Short 2 TF 1132.9, 1132.7, +0.5, -0,3
Short 2 TF 1135.3, 1135.4, +1.0, +0.5
Short 2 YM 16003, 16002, +7, +17
Long 2 YM 15964, 15965, -4, -5
Long 2 YM 15955, 19956, -5, -6
Long 3 YM 15952, 15952, 15954, +7, +11, -0
Long 3 TF 1130.6, 1130.6, 1129.6, -1.4, -1.4, -0.6
Long 2 YM 15930, 15930, +7, +11
Total YM +40
Total TF -1.7
Tues Feb 11 Trade Summary
20140211
Short 2 TF 1120.1, 1120.2, +1.2, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 3592.5, +3.75
Short 2 TF 1123.9, 1124.2, +1.1, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1125.8, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1128.8, -0.2
Total NQ +3.75
Total TF +2.7
Short 2 TF 1120.1, 1120.2, +1.2, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 3592.5, +3.75
Short 2 TF 1123.9, 1124.2, +1.1, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1125.8, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1128.8, -0.2
Total NQ +3.75
Total TF +2.7
Mon Feb 10 Trade Summary
20140210
Short 2 NQ 3569.0, 3569.0, -2.0, -2.0
Short 3 YM 15734, 15734, 15730, +7, +10, +22,
Short 2 TF 1110.5, 1110.4, +0.5, +1.2
Long 2 NQ 3564.50, 3564.25, -1.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 3564.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1105.8, 1105.5, -0.5, -0.3,
Long 1 TF 1105.9, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 3559.75, 3560.0, +2.0, +3.0
Total YM +39
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +1.9
Fri Feb 7 Trades & Journal
20140207
Short 1 TF 1109.1, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1109.4, +1.5
Long 2 YM 15625, 15625, +7, -7
Long 2 TF 1103.7, 1103.9, +1.6, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1102.1, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1100.7, +1.3
Total YM -0
Total TF +5.6
Trading at the edges requires a different mindset than many traders bring to their Plan. Floor traders like the edges, and I'm told I think like one. I trained with two who were indeed very talented. No doubt some of that rubbed off. But the better profits from trading at the edges come from the discipline of holding a runner and extending that hold into the excursion of the next Time Marker. That would indeed improve my trading immensely... ....but also require longer commitment to the screen. There's a trade off to every adjustment. ...a good weekend to all...
Short 1 TF 1109.1, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1109.4, +1.5
Long 2 YM 15625, 15625, +7, -7
Long 2 TF 1103.7, 1103.9, +1.6, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1102.1, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1100.7, +1.3
Total YM -0
Total TF +5.6
Trading at the edges requires a different mindset than many traders bring to their Plan. Floor traders like the edges, and I'm told I think like one. I trained with two who were indeed very talented. No doubt some of that rubbed off. But the better profits from trading at the edges come from the discipline of holding a runner and extending that hold into the excursion of the next Time Marker. That would indeed improve my trading immensely... ....but also require longer commitment to the screen. There's a trade off to every adjustment. ...a good weekend to all...
Thur Feb 6 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20140206
Long 2 TF 1196.4, 1196.3, +0.5, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1100.8, +1.1
Long 2 TF 1198.8, 1198.9, -0.1, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1198.4, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1198.4, +1.2
Short 2 TF 1102.0, 1102.0, -0.2, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3498.5, 3498.25, +2.0, +5.0
Short 2 TF 1104.7, 1104.6, +1.0, +1.5
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +6.1
The Persistent Trend Day Up model is often devoid of big swings and extended pullback buy opportunities. Not so today in the TF contract, as the early grinding characteristic so hard to play inflicted only the ES, YM and NQ. ....so maybe this isn't a Persistent Trend Day Up for the TF.... The buy signals that hit the daily frame reversals yesterday could, however, stick for several days in this budding bear, and who knows, may prove to be just the base of another leg up in this endless bull market, the sell signals at the top in the daily frame this time notwithstanding. Today I balked at an excellent bull breakout play that is perfect for this day model, and opted instead for buying pullbacks and fading extremes. That can work well on any day where there are actually swings, but for a potential Persistent Trend Day Up model, that tactic's success today was nothing more than luck. I should have prepared myself better for the breakout play, as rehearsal can help to over come such blocks. Stay disciplined.
20140206
Long 2 TF 1196.4, 1196.3, +0.5, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1100.8, +1.1
Long 2 TF 1198.8, 1198.9, -0.1, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1198.4, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1198.4, +1.2
Short 2 TF 1102.0, 1102.0, -0.2, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3498.5, 3498.25, +2.0, +5.0
Short 2 TF 1104.7, 1104.6, +1.0, +1.5
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +6.1
The Persistent Trend Day Up model is often devoid of big swings and extended pullback buy opportunities. Not so today in the TF contract, as the early grinding characteristic so hard to play inflicted only the ES, YM and NQ. ....so maybe this isn't a Persistent Trend Day Up for the TF.... The buy signals that hit the daily frame reversals yesterday could, however, stick for several days in this budding bear, and who knows, may prove to be just the base of another leg up in this endless bull market, the sell signals at the top in the daily frame this time notwithstanding. Today I balked at an excellent bull breakout play that is perfect for this day model, and opted instead for buying pullbacks and fading extremes. That can work well on any day where there are actually swings, but for a potential Persistent Trend Day Up model, that tactic's success today was nothing more than luck. I should have prepared myself better for the breakout play, as rehearsal can help to over come such blocks. Stay disciplined.
Wed Feb 5 Trades & Journal
20140205
Short 2 TF 1093.1, 1093.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1092.2, 1092.2, +1.1, +2.0
Long 1 ES 1740.5, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1088.7, 1088.7, +1.0, 0.5
Long 2 NQ 3438.0, 3438.0, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3437.0, 3437.0, +2.0, +10.0
Long 2 NQ 3430.5, 3430.5, +2.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1185.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1084.2, 1084.2, +1.0, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 3420.5, 3420.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 YM 15285, 15285, +20, +20
Short 1 TF 1185.6, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1180.9, +1.2
Total ES -1.5
Total YM +40
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +5.0
Persistence is such an important attribute when trading a plan. Not all the Trade Entry Models will work, and even though the model matches the structure, sometimes the volatility will take you out anyway. But the added volatility must be adjusted to work for your benefit. If the effort to get in a trade and stay in is more difficult and costs you more in stp-outs, all the more important to allow the trade targets to be extended to suit those same volatile excursions. Today, another key number from the all-session 60-min frame was key for the LOD, but the TF Trade Entry Model was incomplete. The YM, on the other hand was ready. But once in that YM trade, I I failed to show the outcome the patience to develop it deserved, and as a consequence left far too much of that excursion on the table. Stay focused.
Short 2 TF 1093.1, 1093.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1092.2, 1092.2, +1.1, +2.0
Long 1 ES 1740.5, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1088.7, 1088.7, +1.0, 0.5
Long 2 NQ 3438.0, 3438.0, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3437.0, 3437.0, +2.0, +10.0
Long 2 NQ 3430.5, 3430.5, +2.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1185.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1084.2, 1084.2, +1.0, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 3420.5, 3420.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 YM 15285, 15285, +20, +20
Short 1 TF 1185.6, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1180.9, +1.2
Total ES -1.5
Total YM +40
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +5.0
Persistence is such an important attribute when trading a plan. Not all the Trade Entry Models will work, and even though the model matches the structure, sometimes the volatility will take you out anyway. But the added volatility must be adjusted to work for your benefit. If the effort to get in a trade and stay in is more difficult and costs you more in stp-outs, all the more important to allow the trade targets to be extended to suit those same volatile excursions. Today, another key number from the all-session 60-min frame was key for the LOD, but the TF Trade Entry Model was incomplete. The YM, on the other hand was ready. But once in that YM trade, I I failed to show the outcome the patience to develop it deserved, and as a consequence left far too much of that excursion on the table. Stay focused.
Tues Feb 4 Trades and Journal
20140204
Long 2 YM 15296, 15296, +7, +30
Short 1 TF 1096.1, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1099.6, 1099.8, -0.5 -0.5
Short 3 TF 1099.5, 1099.5, 1099.6, +0.5, -0.5, +1.2
Short 2 TF 1100.2, 1100.2, +0.5 -0.5
Short 2 NQ 3449.25, 3449.25, +2.0, +8.0
Long 3 TF 1197.8, 1197.8, 1197.6, +0.5, -0.8, +0.6
Long 1 TF 1096.10, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1094.1, 1094.3, +3.0, +1.2
Long 1 NQ 3446.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1196.0, 1196.0, +0.5, +1.0
Total YM +37
Total NQ +13.0
Total TF +3.5
Volatility can be your friend. Or, it can be a brutal opponent. Be sure your entry models are exacting. Today, my exits were early for the most part, because--although once in place the impulse action was tremendous--I also stepped into trades too soon in several cases and was down initially in the TF. Wait for the models to complete. On volatile days, take a breath before executing and look it over once more, it might have greater distance to go before the turn is in. Increasing stop-loss length is a temptation, but if your entry models are exact, these bigger stops will probably just cost you unnecessary capital loss where a quick stp-out would have taken you to flat and as such, put you in a place more at ease as to whether the entry model has survived intact to re enter the trade. Stay focused. A volatile day is even more demanding of your complete attention.
Long 2 YM 15296, 15296, +7, +30
Short 1 TF 1096.1, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1099.6, 1099.8, -0.5 -0.5
Short 3 TF 1099.5, 1099.5, 1099.6, +0.5, -0.5, +1.2
Short 2 TF 1100.2, 1100.2, +0.5 -0.5
Short 2 NQ 3449.25, 3449.25, +2.0, +8.0
Long 3 TF 1197.8, 1197.8, 1197.6, +0.5, -0.8, +0.6
Long 1 TF 1096.10, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1094.1, 1094.3, +3.0, +1.2
Long 1 NQ 3446.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1196.0, 1196.0, +0.5, +1.0
Total YM +37
Total NQ +13.0
Total TF +3.5
Volatility can be your friend. Or, it can be a brutal opponent. Be sure your entry models are exacting. Today, my exits were early for the most part, because--although once in place the impulse action was tremendous--I also stepped into trades too soon in several cases and was down initially in the TF. Wait for the models to complete. On volatile days, take a breath before executing and look it over once more, it might have greater distance to go before the turn is in. Increasing stop-loss length is a temptation, but if your entry models are exact, these bigger stops will probably just cost you unnecessary capital loss where a quick stp-out would have taken you to flat and as such, put you in a place more at ease as to whether the entry model has survived intact to re enter the trade. Stay focused. A volatile day is even more demanding of your complete attention.
Mon Feb 3 Trades & Journal
20140203
Short 1 YM 15639, -9
Long 1 NQ 3515.5, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3512.25, 3512.25, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3500.5, 3500.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 4 NQ 3498.75, 3498.7, 3498.75, 3498.75, +2.0, +2.0, +4.0, +8.25
Short 1 TF 1121.8, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1121.7, +4.0
Long 2 NQ 3491.25, 3491.75, -0.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1109.9, 1109.9, +0.5, +1.7
PM Trades
Short 2 TF 1193.6, 1193.8, -0.6, +0.5
Short 2 YM 15389, 15392, +2.0, +7
Total YM +18
Total NQ +8.25
Total TF +5.6
Big initial bear swoon busted through several support layers before the first turn set in. If the trade model for structure is still valid, this often requires re entry and as such can be disconcerting if stp'd out more than once positioning for it, as was the case today. However, the post news play was very solid and helped meet the 1st frame profit goals. However, a 2nd in-trend short appeared within the trade plan for the TF inflection breakdown, replete with a nice Pre-breakdown Pause Pattern. I balked at this as the familiar mental block to taking breakout trades appeared and asserted itself. There are several reasons why it important to overcome this type of block. It helps open the door for similar opportunities in the future, but just as much, it helps support the overall business that attempts to participate in these big moving trend days. It stings when you're left out of them and every trader wants to know that his methods can be applied no matter what Day Model is in play. Consider the filters of these more difficult trades. Be ready when they appear. Take the trade if the model is correct.
Addendum for PM:
The Last Chance Texaco is a trade model for late in the day on Persistent Trend Days, where pullback has recovered to a prescribed level. On some days, the market doesn't even make it that far, and weaker retracement levels can be targeted for entry. If those smaller pullback areas offer at least some resistance, it should allow you to partial out the trade and get to net break/even. After that, you let the market speak. In this case, TF bullish divergence encourage my YM short exit a bit too soon.
Short 1 YM 15639, -9
Long 1 NQ 3515.5, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3512.25, 3512.25, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3500.5, 3500.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 4 NQ 3498.75, 3498.7, 3498.75, 3498.75, +2.0, +2.0, +4.0, +8.25
Short 1 TF 1121.8, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1121.7, +4.0
Long 2 NQ 3491.25, 3491.75, -0.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1109.9, 1109.9, +0.5, +1.7
PM Trades
Short 2 TF 1193.6, 1193.8, -0.6, +0.5
Short 2 YM 15389, 15392, +2.0, +7
Total YM +18
Total NQ +8.25
Total TF +5.6
Big initial bear swoon busted through several support layers before the first turn set in. If the trade model for structure is still valid, this often requires re entry and as such can be disconcerting if stp'd out more than once positioning for it, as was the case today. However, the post news play was very solid and helped meet the 1st frame profit goals. However, a 2nd in-trend short appeared within the trade plan for the TF inflection breakdown, replete with a nice Pre-breakdown Pause Pattern. I balked at this as the familiar mental block to taking breakout trades appeared and asserted itself. There are several reasons why it important to overcome this type of block. It helps open the door for similar opportunities in the future, but just as much, it helps support the overall business that attempts to participate in these big moving trend days. It stings when you're left out of them and every trader wants to know that his methods can be applied no matter what Day Model is in play. Consider the filters of these more difficult trades. Be ready when they appear. Take the trade if the model is correct.
Addendum for PM:
The Last Chance Texaco is a trade model for late in the day on Persistent Trend Days, where pullback has recovered to a prescribed level. On some days, the market doesn't even make it that far, and weaker retracement levels can be targeted for entry. If those smaller pullback areas offer at least some resistance, it should allow you to partial out the trade and get to net break/even. After that, you let the market speak. In this case, TF bullish divergence encourage my YM short exit a bit too soon.
Fri Jan 31 Trades & Journal
20140131
Long 2 YM 15563, 15563, +7, +18
Short 2 NQ 3501.0, 3500.75, +2.0, +5.0
Short 1 NQ 3501.0, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1127.5, +1.7
Long 2 NQ 3591.5, 3591.5, +2.0, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1123.5, 1123.5, +0.5, +1.8
Long 2 NQ 3588.5, 3588.75, +4.0, +2.0
Total YM +25
Total NQ +12.0
Total TF +4.0
Trading from a Plan of precise Trade Entry Models eliminates so much of the confusion and doubt regarding the market's conditions each day. It doesn't mean you catch every trade. But it does often keep you out of poor ones and focused on those of best potential. Stay focused. ...and a good weekend to all...
Long 2 YM 15563, 15563, +7, +18
Short 2 NQ 3501.0, 3500.75, +2.0, +5.0
Short 1 NQ 3501.0, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1127.5, +1.7
Long 2 NQ 3591.5, 3591.5, +2.0, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1123.5, 1123.5, +0.5, +1.8
Long 2 NQ 3588.5, 3588.75, +4.0, +2.0
Total YM +25
Total NQ +12.0
Total TF +4.0
Trading from a Plan of precise Trade Entry Models eliminates so much of the confusion and doubt regarding the market's conditions each day. It doesn't mean you catch every trade. But it does often keep you out of poor ones and focused on those of best potential. Stay focused. ...and a good weekend to all...
Thur Jan 30 Trade Summary
20140130
Long 2 NQ 3505.5, 3505.75, +2.0, +3.75
Long 2 NQ 3502.0, 3502.25, +2.0, +2.5
Short 2 TF 1132.0, 1132.1, -0.5, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1132.2, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1132.3, -0.5,
Short 2 TF 1132.3, 1132.3, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1132.9, 1132.9, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1133.0, 1133.0, +0.5, +1.2
Total NQ +10.25
Total +2.3
Long 2 NQ 3505.5, 3505.75, +2.0, +3.75
Long 2 NQ 3502.0, 3502.25, +2.0, +2.5
Short 2 TF 1132.0, 1132.1, -0.5, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1132.2, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1132.3, -0.5,
Short 2 TF 1132.3, 1132.3, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1132.9, 1132.9, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1133.0, 1133.0, +0.5, +1.2
Total NQ +10.25
Total +2.3
Wed Jan 29 Trade & Journal
20140129
Short 2 NQ 3480.75, 3483.5, +2.0, +4.0
Short 2 NQ 3481.0, 3482.25, -1.5, +2.0
Short 2 YM 15773, 15775, -2, -5
Short 1 TF 1129.5, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1125.7, 1125.7, +0.5, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 3469.75, 3468.0, +2.0, +4.0
Long 2 TF 1124.9, 1124.6, +3.0, +0.5
PM Trades
Long 1 YM 15713, -7
Long 1 YM 15685, +30
Total NQ +12.5
Total YM +16
Total TF +5.3
Huge gap down openings can cause a reaction to price production, but even more than that, it can cause a reaction in your head that influences or even inhibits the execution of your normal Trade Plan. Don't let big gaps inhibit the execution of your Trade Plan. If your Trade Plan does not accommodate such things, then maybe there's some tweaking to do in the Plan. Stay focused. Concentrate on whether the specifics of the Entry Model have appeared. If so, pull the trigger. Forget about which way the market is supposed to go after a gap or after this or that news. Stay disciplined, and remember the Douglas Premise: "Most of the money that is lost in the markets is lost by trader who thought they knew which way the market was supposed to go." Once you understand that, the two Corollaries to the Premise will make perfect sense, and come to the aid of your Trade Plan construction. Read the book Pivot's, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades for those corollaries.
Addendum: The FOMC is always a good bet for volatility, and although my trade plan calls usually for pre-news setups, none occurred that fulfilled Trade Entry requirements. But there were several post-news models that did appear. I only caught one for a 'taste', but sometimes flat is a good position too.
Short 2 NQ 3480.75, 3483.5, +2.0, +4.0
Short 2 NQ 3481.0, 3482.25, -1.5, +2.0
Short 2 YM 15773, 15775, -2, -5
Short 1 TF 1129.5, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1125.7, 1125.7, +0.5, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 3469.75, 3468.0, +2.0, +4.0
Long 2 TF 1124.9, 1124.6, +3.0, +0.5
PM Trades
Long 1 YM 15713, -7
Long 1 YM 15685, +30
Total NQ +12.5
Total YM +16
Total TF +5.3
Huge gap down openings can cause a reaction to price production, but even more than that, it can cause a reaction in your head that influences or even inhibits the execution of your normal Trade Plan. Don't let big gaps inhibit the execution of your Trade Plan. If your Trade Plan does not accommodate such things, then maybe there's some tweaking to do in the Plan. Stay focused. Concentrate on whether the specifics of the Entry Model have appeared. If so, pull the trigger. Forget about which way the market is supposed to go after a gap or after this or that news. Stay disciplined, and remember the Douglas Premise: "Most of the money that is lost in the markets is lost by trader who thought they knew which way the market was supposed to go." Once you understand that, the two Corollaries to the Premise will make perfect sense, and come to the aid of your Trade Plan construction. Read the book Pivot's, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades for those corollaries.
Addendum: The FOMC is always a good bet for volatility, and although my trade plan calls usually for pre-news setups, none occurred that fulfilled Trade Entry requirements. But there were several post-news models that did appear. I only caught one for a 'taste', but sometimes flat is a good position too.
Tues Jan 28 Trades & Summary
20140128
Short 2 TF 1128.1, 1128.3, +0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1128.5, 1128.4, 1129.1, -0, -0. +1.0
Short 1 YM 15866, -5
Short 1 NQ 3497.5, +4.0
Long 2 YM 15840, 15838, +12, +7
Long 2 TF 1129.3, 1129.3, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1128.9, 1129.0, +1.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1130.0, 1129.4, -0.0, +1.4
Total NQ +4.0
Total YM +14
Total TF +4.6
Was certainly a target rich environment today, and as such missed a number of trades, the last one coming just after the end of the 1st frame at the Kilroy for YM and NQ exhaustion. But all in all, I seemed to have kept the pace of the decisions on an even keel, unlike some days where the muddy signals might cause position flips too quickly. That can result in too many trades. An even pace is good. Stay focused, and stay with the Plan.
Short 2 TF 1128.1, 1128.3, +0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1128.5, 1128.4, 1129.1, -0, -0. +1.0
Short 1 YM 15866, -5
Short 1 NQ 3497.5, +4.0
Long 2 YM 15840, 15838, +12, +7
Long 2 TF 1129.3, 1129.3, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1128.9, 1129.0, +1.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1130.0, 1129.4, -0.0, +1.4
Total NQ +4.0
Total YM +14
Total TF +4.6
Was certainly a target rich environment today, and as such missed a number of trades, the last one coming just after the end of the 1st frame at the Kilroy for YM and NQ exhaustion. But all in all, I seemed to have kept the pace of the decisions on an even keel, unlike some days where the muddy signals might cause position flips too quickly. That can result in too many trades. An even pace is good. Stay focused, and stay with the Plan.
Mon Jan 27 Trades & Journal
20140127
Short 1 TF 1143.3, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1138.2, 1138.5, +1.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1135.8, 1135.6, -0.5, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1135.9, 1134.9, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1133.2, 1133.2, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 YM 15823, 15823, 15823, +20, +20, -0
Long 2 TF 1127.3, 1127.2, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 YM 15810, 15807, +10, +20
Long 2 TF 1128.1, 1128.4, +1.7, +0.5
PM Trades:
Short 1 TF 1125.6, -0.5
Short 2 TF 11261, 1126.3, +2.0, +0.7
Total YM +70
Total TF +5.3
The Trade Plan says to look for reversals back up after a Persistent Trend Day Down, and the early action in the TF and the subsequent lows in the YM did provide good bounces and profits. But was hard to escape the strong feeling of 'should have known' regarding the breakdown levels where I balked at taking shorts in the TF today. The Serial Sequent sell signals in the daily frame for both TF and NQ some days back have been showing excellent production, but it is hard to carry larger frame signals into the lower frames with consistency, Alexander Elder notwithstanding. I must renew my efforts at overcoming the mental blocks to taking breakouts, at least at the levels where the fractal method indicates they have the greatest chances of success.
Addendum: The Last Chance Texaco showed up a bit early in PM action, as a reversal finally captured a little ground. Despite the incredible heaviness, the Trade Plan says not to target a new LOD with the Last Texaco short, as this would be the 2nd day of Persistent Trend Day Down action, and therefore far more vulnerable to a short covering reversal. As I write this, am pulling all chips off table and stick with decent profits. Trade the Plan, not your opinions, and be careful of tape reading your entries based on the 'feel' of the trend. Intuition and tape reading are recipes for inconsistency.... or worse....
Short 1 TF 1143.3, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1138.2, 1138.5, +1.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1135.8, 1135.6, -0.5, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1135.9, 1134.9, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1133.2, 1133.2, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 YM 15823, 15823, 15823, +20, +20, -0
Long 2 TF 1127.3, 1127.2, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 YM 15810, 15807, +10, +20
Long 2 TF 1128.1, 1128.4, +1.7, +0.5
PM Trades:
Short 1 TF 1125.6, -0.5
Short 2 TF 11261, 1126.3, +2.0, +0.7
Total YM +70
Total TF +5.3
The Trade Plan says to look for reversals back up after a Persistent Trend Day Down, and the early action in the TF and the subsequent lows in the YM did provide good bounces and profits. But was hard to escape the strong feeling of 'should have known' regarding the breakdown levels where I balked at taking shorts in the TF today. The Serial Sequent sell signals in the daily frame for both TF and NQ some days back have been showing excellent production, but it is hard to carry larger frame signals into the lower frames with consistency, Alexander Elder notwithstanding. I must renew my efforts at overcoming the mental blocks to taking breakouts, at least at the levels where the fractal method indicates they have the greatest chances of success.
Addendum: The Last Chance Texaco showed up a bit early in PM action, as a reversal finally captured a little ground. Despite the incredible heaviness, the Trade Plan says not to target a new LOD with the Last Texaco short, as this would be the 2nd day of Persistent Trend Day Down action, and therefore far more vulnerable to a short covering reversal. As I write this, am pulling all chips off table and stick with decent profits. Trade the Plan, not your opinions, and be careful of tape reading your entries based on the 'feel' of the trend. Intuition and tape reading are recipes for inconsistency.... or worse....
Fri Jan 24 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20140124
Long 2 TF 1156.2, 1156.3, +0.5, -0.5
Long 1 ES 1806.5, +2.0
Short 1 YM 16037, -7
Short 2 TF 1156.0, 1156.2, +1.4, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1152.1, +1.2
Long 1 YM 15961, +13
Long 1 TF 1147.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1145.8, -0.5
Long 2 ES 1898.5, 1898.75, +1.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1144.1, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1141.7, 1141.6, -0.5, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1141.2, 1140.9, +1.5, +1.4
Short 2 NQ 3568.5, 3568.5, +2.0, +6.0
Total ES +2.0
Total YM +6
Total NQ +8.0
Total TF +3.8
When prices collapse early in a Persistent direction, there's little chance to get short as the bounces can be shallow. Today was just such a beginning for TF, and the bounce that came in the YM proved to have bigger extension. This can leave you trying to counter trend trade the extremes. I can't say I took any of those potential buy reversals in TF out of trend model, and I did trade 1 lots with small stp's trying to catch the sharper reactions. Best I can say is that when a fourth series of lows were arriving at a set of support numbers in the TF, I had the gumption to re enter after a series of stp-outs chewed early profits down to almost the bone. This would have discouraged many a trader and no doubt many of my students in the chat room at the time. But sometimes trading requires as much persistence as the trend itself. Wishing a good weekend to all. Stay disciplined. If your Trade Entry Models work more often than fail, then the Plan will bring you back into profits if you stay with it.
20140124
Long 2 TF 1156.2, 1156.3, +0.5, -0.5
Long 1 ES 1806.5, +2.0
Short 1 YM 16037, -7
Short 2 TF 1156.0, 1156.2, +1.4, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1152.1, +1.2
Long 1 YM 15961, +13
Long 1 TF 1147.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1145.8, -0.5
Long 2 ES 1898.5, 1898.75, +1.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1144.1, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1141.7, 1141.6, -0.5, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1141.2, 1140.9, +1.5, +1.4
Short 2 NQ 3568.5, 3568.5, +2.0, +6.0
Total ES +2.0
Total YM +6
Total NQ +8.0
Total TF +3.8
When prices collapse early in a Persistent direction, there's little chance to get short as the bounces can be shallow. Today was just such a beginning for TF, and the bounce that came in the YM proved to have bigger extension. This can leave you trying to counter trend trade the extremes. I can't say I took any of those potential buy reversals in TF out of trend model, and I did trade 1 lots with small stp's trying to catch the sharper reactions. Best I can say is that when a fourth series of lows were arriving at a set of support numbers in the TF, I had the gumption to re enter after a series of stp-outs chewed early profits down to almost the bone. This would have discouraged many a trader and no doubt many of my students in the chat room at the time. But sometimes trading requires as much persistence as the trend itself. Wishing a good weekend to all. Stay disciplined. If your Trade Entry Models work more often than fail, then the Plan will bring you back into profits if you stay with it.
Thu Jan 23 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20140123
Long 2 TF 1168.8, 1169.0, +1.2, +0.5
Long 2 YM 16136, 16136, -3, -3
Short 2 TF 1166.1, 1166.1, +0.5 +0.5
PM Trades
Short 1 TF 1165.3, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1165.1, -0.3
Long 1 ES 18157.5, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1164.6, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1165.0, 1165.2, -0.4, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1165.1, -0.1
Total ES -1.0
Total YM -6
Total TF +1.1
Sometimes a big gap will take the swing volatility out of the market in 1st Frame. Was so today, and as such, found only a few trades to fit plan. Can say I stuck pretty well to it, but did miss a good trade model entry in the NQ while focusing a bit too hard on the TF. In the PM, have a rule not trade away past AM profits, so as not to take a positive day into a negative one. And in the ensuing PM chop, could find nothing but stp-outs to show for my efforts. About the best I can say was that I did at least follow that rule and quit before going negative. Some days are better for trading than others. And quite willing to admit that perhaps other methods and management styles might be produced better results. One day is not enough to consider any changes to a trade plan, if that plan is working far more often that it fails. Tomorrow is another day... Stay focused.
20140123
Long 2 TF 1168.8, 1169.0, +1.2, +0.5
Long 2 YM 16136, 16136, -3, -3
Short 2 TF 1166.1, 1166.1, +0.5 +0.5
PM Trades
Short 1 TF 1165.3, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1165.1, -0.3
Long 1 ES 18157.5, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1164.6, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1165.0, 1165.2, -0.4, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1165.1, -0.1
Total ES -1.0
Total YM -6
Total TF +1.1
Sometimes a big gap will take the swing volatility out of the market in 1st Frame. Was so today, and as such, found only a few trades to fit plan. Can say I stuck pretty well to it, but did miss a good trade model entry in the NQ while focusing a bit too hard on the TF. In the PM, have a rule not trade away past AM profits, so as not to take a positive day into a negative one. And in the ensuing PM chop, could find nothing but stp-outs to show for my efforts. About the best I can say was that I did at least follow that rule and quit before going negative. Some days are better for trading than others. And quite willing to admit that perhaps other methods and management styles might be produced better results. One day is not enough to consider any changes to a trade plan, if that plan is working far more often that it fails. Tomorrow is another day... Stay focused.
Wed Jan 22 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20140122
Long 2 TF 1172.6, 1172.9, +1.1, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1173.2, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1172.3, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1171.6, 1171.6, +0.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1172.8, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1173.6, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1172.5, 1172.5, -0.5, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1172.4, +0.6
Total TF +3.6
Unless your OCO strategies are preset on separate price ladders, and are second nature to your trade entry and exit management, trading in narrow range days is pretty much impossible. You just can't keep up with the small turns. But anyone can learn to do it. I often find students are trying to monitor all four index contracts with various study methods for capturing complete trade models correctly, but are trying to do so, and trade with price ladders all from as little as two monitors. There is no time for peeling back a Windows frame or flipping WorkSpaces back-n-forth. Open separate price ladders for each contract. At least 2 each. Present different OCO strategies for each. Let your mouse do all the work with one-click decisions. There is no time for hesitation. The thinking part should have been done long ago while the market was closed as your reviewed and rehearsed what to do when specific Trade Entry Models appeared. In real time, you must act, not think. Thinking is for the Analyst. Be the Trader.
20140122
Long 2 TF 1172.6, 1172.9, +1.1, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1173.2, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1172.3, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1171.6, 1171.6, +0.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1172.8, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1173.6, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1172.5, 1172.5, -0.5, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1172.4, +0.6
Total TF +3.6
Unless your OCO strategies are preset on separate price ladders, and are second nature to your trade entry and exit management, trading in narrow range days is pretty much impossible. You just can't keep up with the small turns. But anyone can learn to do it. I often find students are trying to monitor all four index contracts with various study methods for capturing complete trade models correctly, but are trying to do so, and trade with price ladders all from as little as two monitors. There is no time for peeling back a Windows frame or flipping WorkSpaces back-n-forth. Open separate price ladders for each contract. At least 2 each. Present different OCO strategies for each. Let your mouse do all the work with one-click decisions. There is no time for hesitation. The thinking part should have been done long ago while the market was closed as your reviewed and rehearsed what to do when specific Trade Entry Models appeared. In real time, you must act, not think. Thinking is for the Analyst. Be the Trader.
Tues Jan 21 Trades & Journal
20140121
Long 2 TF 1172.8, 1172.8, +0.5, +1.0
Short 4 TF 1174.3, 1174.6, 1174.8, 1174.4, +0.5, -0.5, +0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1170.2, 1170.4, -0.0, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1164.7, 1164.3, -0.0, -0.0,
Long 2 TF 1164.6, 1164.5, +1.0, +0.5
Total +5.4
Sometimes the best trades get by you. This can be discouraging. There's such an attraction to glory when trading, like swinging for the fence and catching those sudden sharp downdrafts like you knew it was coming. But the point to trading is to use your entry models and trade what matches them only. Today, I had matching models for both the early two downdrafts. The first I was shaken out of on all the chop, and the second I missed by having my pullback short entry a bit too high. In truth, I never saw the deepness of that 2nd downdraft coming, and had I actually been filled on the LMT short entry, I would most likely have exited at an initial new low and missed the extra extension to the full excursion anyway. What I can say is that I tempered my angst by keeping my head to find a long at the bottom. Stay focused. You can't catch them all.
Long 2 TF 1172.8, 1172.8, +0.5, +1.0
Short 4 TF 1174.3, 1174.6, 1174.8, 1174.4, +0.5, -0.5, +0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1170.2, 1170.4, -0.0, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1164.7, 1164.3, -0.0, -0.0,
Long 2 TF 1164.6, 1164.5, +1.0, +0.5
Total +5.4
Sometimes the best trades get by you. This can be discouraging. There's such an attraction to glory when trading, like swinging for the fence and catching those sudden sharp downdrafts like you knew it was coming. But the point to trading is to use your entry models and trade what matches them only. Today, I had matching models for both the early two downdrafts. The first I was shaken out of on all the chop, and the second I missed by having my pullback short entry a bit too high. In truth, I never saw the deepness of that 2nd downdraft coming, and had I actually been filled on the LMT short entry, I would most likely have exited at an initial new low and missed the extra extension to the full excursion anyway. What I can say is that I tempered my angst by keeping my head to find a long at the bottom. Stay focused. You can't catch them all.
Fri Jan 17 Trades & Journal
20140117
Short 2 TF 1169.8, 1169.8, +.5, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1169.9, -0.4
Long 1 NQ 3587.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1168.9, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1167.5, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1168.2, -0.4,
Long 1 TF 1168.2, +0.2
Total NQ -0
Total TF +1.8
Some days are better for trading than others. A little more patience and a slightly bigger stp would have afforded a daily profit goal from the last long position. Patience is a serious short coming to my trading. Having patience means you can endure the slow grinding rallies that come as the 1st frame is ending, and the volatility is winding down. Consider the last trade signal. Measure it against the momentum. Consider leaving your stop on a runner to no more than break-even, and 'position yourself to be surprised'. ...and a good weekend to all...
Short 2 TF 1169.8, 1169.8, +.5, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1169.9, -0.4
Long 1 NQ 3587.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1168.9, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1167.5, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1168.2, -0.4,
Long 1 TF 1168.2, +0.2
Total NQ -0
Total TF +1.8
Some days are better for trading than others. A little more patience and a slightly bigger stp would have afforded a daily profit goal from the last long position. Patience is a serious short coming to my trading. Having patience means you can endure the slow grinding rallies that come as the 1st frame is ending, and the volatility is winding down. Consider the last trade signal. Measure it against the momentum. Consider leaving your stop on a runner to no more than break-even, and 'position yourself to be surprised'. ...and a good weekend to all...
Thur Jan 16 Trades & Journal
20140116
Short 2 NQ 3598.25, 3598.25, +2.0, +4.0
Short 2 NQ 3604.75, 3404.75, +2.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1168.1, -0.1
Long 2 TF 1166.9, 1166.9, +0.5, +1.7
Total NQ +12.00
Total TF +2.2
Determined to look elsewhere for trades today as a result of day before yesterday's missed opportunities in the ES and NQ while fumbling with incomplete Entry Models for the TF. Have only the process of journaling for that. Have a Plan. That Plan has rules and models. Include no model that does not work far more often than it fails. Take the trade if the criteria of the model are met, regardless of what you may read on 'the tape', or assume about the trend. For the Trader, Trade Models ARE the trend. He knows no other. And the TF is not the only contract on the board worthy of the Plan. Stay disciplined.
Short 2 NQ 3598.25, 3598.25, +2.0, +4.0
Short 2 NQ 3604.75, 3404.75, +2.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1168.1, -0.1
Long 2 TF 1166.9, 1166.9, +0.5, +1.7
Total NQ +12.00
Total TF +2.2
Determined to look elsewhere for trades today as a result of day before yesterday's missed opportunities in the ES and NQ while fumbling with incomplete Entry Models for the TF. Have only the process of journaling for that. Have a Plan. That Plan has rules and models. Include no model that does not work far more often than it fails. Take the trade if the criteria of the model are met, regardless of what you may read on 'the tape', or assume about the trend. For the Trader, Trade Models ARE the trend. He knows no other. And the TF is not the only contract on the board worthy of the Plan. Stay disciplined.
Wed Jan 15 Trades & Journal
20140115
Short 3 YM 16366, 16364, 16366, +7, -1, +5
Short 2 TF 1167.9, 1168.0, -0.3, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1168.2, +1.2
Short 1 YM 16406, -7
Short 2 YM 16410, 16411, +5, -5
Short 1 TF 1166.8, -0.3
PM trades
Long 2 TF 1165.6, 1165.3, +1.2, +0.7
Total YM +4
Total TF +3.0
Several aspects to my 1st frame performance today as same as yesterday. Meager profits. And today, can point to very clear trade opps in both the ES and NQ which I ignored (more correctly, lost focus of) while trading the TF, which exhibited poor Entry Model minutia. But returning to the PM frame in anticipation of the 2pm Beige Book and a possible Pre-News setup, gave me 2 more pts in the TF for a modest, but decent day. After that, I smartly pulled up chips and went home. Stay disciplined. Consistency from day to day is far more important than playing catch up to missed profit goals. Profits are the opposite of glory. A trader seldom ends up the month with both.
Short 3 YM 16366, 16364, 16366, +7, -1, +5
Short 2 TF 1167.9, 1168.0, -0.3, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1168.2, +1.2
Short 1 YM 16406, -7
Short 2 YM 16410, 16411, +5, -5
Short 1 TF 1166.8, -0.3
PM trades
Long 2 TF 1165.6, 1165.3, +1.2, +0.7
Total YM +4
Total TF +3.0
Several aspects to my 1st frame performance today as same as yesterday. Meager profits. And today, can point to very clear trade opps in both the ES and NQ which I ignored (more correctly, lost focus of) while trading the TF, which exhibited poor Entry Model minutia. But returning to the PM frame in anticipation of the 2pm Beige Book and a possible Pre-News setup, gave me 2 more pts in the TF for a modest, but decent day. After that, I smartly pulled up chips and went home. Stay disciplined. Consistency from day to day is far more important than playing catch up to missed profit goals. Profits are the opposite of glory. A trader seldom ends up the month with both.
Mon Jan 13 Trade Summary
20140113
Long 2 TF 1157.6, 1157.5, +0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1157.8, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1158.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1159.5, 1159.3, 1158.4, -0, -0, +1.3
Long YM 16372, -5
PM trades:
Long 2 YM 16248, 16248, +5, -5
Long 1 NQ 3524.75, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1148.1, 1147.7, -0.5, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1148.0, 1148.0, -0.3, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1147.3, 1147.3, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1147.2, 1147.2, -0.4, -0.4
Long 3 TF 1144.6, 1144.6, 1145.2, +1.0, -0.1, -0.3
Total YM -5
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +0.1
Think of the trading day as divided into 3 frames. If your trade models are more fitting the one than another, focus accordingly. If I have some profit from the 1st frame, but is nominal, I often return to catch the last time frame of the day. Today, doing so to take PM trades violated nothing in my Trade Plan. But using more than the available profit won from the 1st frame to find successful trades in the 3rd would have been a clear violation of a management rule in the Plan. And that's about the best thing I can think to say about my trading today.... so I'll leave it right there, and be back another day.
Long 2 TF 1157.6, 1157.5, +0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1157.8, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1158.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1159.5, 1159.3, 1158.4, -0, -0, +1.3
Long YM 16372, -5
PM trades:
Long 2 YM 16248, 16248, +5, -5
Long 1 NQ 3524.75, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1148.1, 1147.7, -0.5, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1148.0, 1148.0, -0.3, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1147.3, 1147.3, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1147.2, 1147.2, -0.4, -0.4
Long 3 TF 1144.6, 1144.6, 1145.2, +1.0, -0.1, -0.3
Total YM -5
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +0.1
Think of the trading day as divided into 3 frames. If your trade models are more fitting the one than another, focus accordingly. If I have some profit from the 1st frame, but is nominal, I often return to catch the last time frame of the day. Today, doing so to take PM trades violated nothing in my Trade Plan. But using more than the available profit won from the 1st frame to find successful trades in the 3rd would have been a clear violation of a management rule in the Plan. And that's about the best thing I can think to say about my trading today.... so I'll leave it right there, and be back another day.
Mon Jan 13 Trade Summary
20140113
Long 2 TF 1157.6, 1157.5, +0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1157.8, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1158.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1159.5, 1159.3, 1158.4, -0, -0, +1.3
Long YM 16372, -5
Total YM -5
Total TF +2.8
Long 2 TF 1157.6, 1157.5, +0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1157.8, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1158.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1159.5, 1159.3, 1158.4, -0, -0, +1.3
Long YM 16372, -5
Total YM -5
Total TF +2.8
Fri Jan 8 Trades & Journal
20140110
Short 2 NQ 3556.6, 3556.6, +2.0, +4.0
Long 2 YM 16392, 16392, -6, -6
Long 2 NQ 3549.25, 3549.25, -0, -0
Long 2 ES 1831.75, 1831.75, -1.25, -1.25
Long 2 TF 1150.7, 1150.7, +1.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1157.3, +0.8
Long 2 TF 1154.4, 1154.0, -0, +1.2
Total YM -12
Total NQ +6.0
Total ES -2.5
Total TF +5.0
Exiting too soon is a major problem for many traders. They cannot tolerate taking a loss, so those they let run. But when a profitable trade finally appears, they must book it quickly to help pay for the losses and to supply some much needed mental reward to the pain of recent losses. At other times, you're just unsure of the position, and a profit that seems to be at hand in a trade you don't believe in is a profit you take quickly. I took profits several times today too soon. Not quite because I didn't believe in it, but more that I only believed in it at the entry level, and not enough to overcome the resistance or support numbers it had to face in order to trend. If the model was correct, it deserves a trend that extends until a reversal signal in the opposite direction appears. And that much respect, I simply did not offer to several trades today. This has long been a weakness in my trading, and curing it won't be easy. But the road to behavior change starts with acknowledgement. It then requires repeated attention. It must then have a method on which it might rely for the change. And then it takes continual determination and awareness to accomplish the opposite of the fault even once. Acknowledge your trading weaknesses. Resolve to give it repeated attention until the very act of recognition becomes a habit. Resolve to see the fault coming before you commit it again. Act on the method to see the fault into the changed behavior by using a goal that would be accomplished only if the fault were overcome. Reach the goal. Look to repeat the new behavior. Enjoy the weekend... Stay focused and disciplined.
Short 2 NQ 3556.6, 3556.6, +2.0, +4.0
Long 2 YM 16392, 16392, -6, -6
Long 2 NQ 3549.25, 3549.25, -0, -0
Long 2 ES 1831.75, 1831.75, -1.25, -1.25
Long 2 TF 1150.7, 1150.7, +1.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1157.3, +0.8
Long 2 TF 1154.4, 1154.0, -0, +1.2
Total YM -12
Total NQ +6.0
Total ES -2.5
Total TF +5.0
Exiting too soon is a major problem for many traders. They cannot tolerate taking a loss, so those they let run. But when a profitable trade finally appears, they must book it quickly to help pay for the losses and to supply some much needed mental reward to the pain of recent losses. At other times, you're just unsure of the position, and a profit that seems to be at hand in a trade you don't believe in is a profit you take quickly. I took profits several times today too soon. Not quite because I didn't believe in it, but more that I only believed in it at the entry level, and not enough to overcome the resistance or support numbers it had to face in order to trend. If the model was correct, it deserves a trend that extends until a reversal signal in the opposite direction appears. And that much respect, I simply did not offer to several trades today. This has long been a weakness in my trading, and curing it won't be easy. But the road to behavior change starts with acknowledgement. It then requires repeated attention. It must then have a method on which it might rely for the change. And then it takes continual determination and awareness to accomplish the opposite of the fault even once. Acknowledge your trading weaknesses. Resolve to give it repeated attention until the very act of recognition becomes a habit. Resolve to see the fault coming before you commit it again. Act on the method to see the fault into the changed behavior by using a goal that would be accomplished only if the fault were overcome. Reach the goal. Look to repeat the new behavior. Enjoy the weekend... Stay focused and disciplined.
Thurs Jan 9 Trades & Journal
20140109
Long 2 TF 1156.7, 1156.8, +0.5, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1158.7, 1158.6, 1158.5, +0.5, -0.2, +0.9
Short 1 TF 1158.6, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1159.2, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1159.4, 1159.2, +4.0, +0.5
Total TF +7.3
The early short signals were solid going into the 1st leg down, despite the grinding retest that knocked me out early several times. Perhaps it was the familiarity with the pattern, but I did succeed in being persistent with short re-entries after stp-outs near the HOD until it finally rolled over. Thereafter, I quit trading having exceeded my 1st Frame trading goals. Wish I could say that every day.... My book, Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades is now out in Kindle. Although it doesn't contain the algorithms for Serial Sequent Wave Method, nor the TTI True Trend Momentum Indicator, it is a good basis for the trading day and a blueprint for building a trading plan around trade models of confluent technical event minutia. Build a Trade Plan. Trade the Plan. Stay disciplined.
Long 2 TF 1156.7, 1156.8, +0.5, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1158.7, 1158.6, 1158.5, +0.5, -0.2, +0.9
Short 1 TF 1158.6, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1159.2, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1159.4, 1159.2, +4.0, +0.5
Total TF +7.3
The early short signals were solid going into the 1st leg down, despite the grinding retest that knocked me out early several times. Perhaps it was the familiarity with the pattern, but I did succeed in being persistent with short re-entries after stp-outs near the HOD until it finally rolled over. Thereafter, I quit trading having exceeded my 1st Frame trading goals. Wish I could say that every day.... My book, Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades is now out in Kindle. Although it doesn't contain the algorithms for Serial Sequent Wave Method, nor the TTI True Trend Momentum Indicator, it is a good basis for the trading day and a blueprint for building a trading plan around trade models of confluent technical event minutia. Build a Trade Plan. Trade the Plan. Stay disciplined.
Wed Jan 8 Trades & Journal
20140108
Short 2 TF 1153.8, 1153.6, +0.5, +1.5
Long 2 NQ 3548.0, 3548.0, -1.5, -1.5
Long 2 NQ 3546.5, 3546.5, +2.0, +3.5
Short 2 TF 1150.5, 1151.1, -1.0, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1152.0, 1152.0, -0.6, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1153.1, 1153.1, 1153.1, +0.5, +0.5, -0.3
Short 3 NQ 3558.25, 3558.25, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1158.2, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 3562.75, 3562.75, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1156.9, 1156.9, +1.4, +2.0
PM Trades:
Long 2 TF 1151.8, 1151.2, -0.0, +1.7
Long 2 TF 1151.8, 1151.5, -0.5, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1151.5, 1151.5, +0.5, +1.2
Total NQ +4.5
Total +5.7
After taking 2 early trades that were spot-on, I got cocky and assumed the reversal back up was faux and just a short entry opp, too early. In fact, the bull was the truer trend and I knew better, as it was really the 2nd trend direction after rejecting the Lows. How can I know something so well and yet feel compelled to trade against my own rules? This has often puzzled me, as if I am capable of going into any fresh trading day and forget to take my head with me. Did catch the final high correctly for a short that recaptured the early profits, and rightfully quit then as the 1st frame was ending with some profits in hand. It was important to end that frame on the plus side, as today follows a losing day, and two in a row is much more difficult to overcome for a profitable week. And profitable weeks are critically important.
Addendum. Thanks to one of my students, was reminded that this was FOMC day. The pre-news action found TF pricing testing support on a structured pullback from the HOD. Was able to buy this twice with nice profits, and decided not to risk an open position going into the news, as per the usual strategy, as ringing the cash register enough to make up for yesterday's loss plus is far better management, imho, than going for the gold. Stay focused. Consistency is more important after a losing day than trying to regain the world.
Short 2 TF 1153.8, 1153.6, +0.5, +1.5
Long 2 NQ 3548.0, 3548.0, -1.5, -1.5
Long 2 NQ 3546.5, 3546.5, +2.0, +3.5
Short 2 TF 1150.5, 1151.1, -1.0, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1152.0, 1152.0, -0.6, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1153.1, 1153.1, 1153.1, +0.5, +0.5, -0.3
Short 3 NQ 3558.25, 3558.25, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1158.2, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 3562.75, 3562.75, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1156.9, 1156.9, +1.4, +2.0
PM Trades:
Long 2 TF 1151.8, 1151.2, -0.0, +1.7
Long 2 TF 1151.8, 1151.5, -0.5, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1151.5, 1151.5, +0.5, +1.2
Total NQ +4.5
Total +5.7
After taking 2 early trades that were spot-on, I got cocky and assumed the reversal back up was faux and just a short entry opp, too early. In fact, the bull was the truer trend and I knew better, as it was really the 2nd trend direction after rejecting the Lows. How can I know something so well and yet feel compelled to trade against my own rules? This has often puzzled me, as if I am capable of going into any fresh trading day and forget to take my head with me. Did catch the final high correctly for a short that recaptured the early profits, and rightfully quit then as the 1st frame was ending with some profits in hand. It was important to end that frame on the plus side, as today follows a losing day, and two in a row is much more difficult to overcome for a profitable week. And profitable weeks are critically important.
Addendum. Thanks to one of my students, was reminded that this was FOMC day. The pre-news action found TF pricing testing support on a structured pullback from the HOD. Was able to buy this twice with nice profits, and decided not to risk an open position going into the news, as per the usual strategy, as ringing the cash register enough to make up for yesterday's loss plus is far better management, imho, than going for the gold. Stay focused. Consistency is more important after a losing day than trying to regain the world.
Tues Jan 7 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20140107
Short 1 TF 1148.5, -0.6
Short 2 YM 17463, 16463, +5, -5
Short 2 NQ 3541.0, 3541.0, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1153.3, 1153.3, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 YM 17469, 17469, -7, -7
Short 2 YM 17477, 17477, +5, -1
Short 2 NQ 3546.50, 3546.25, +1.5, -0.75
Long 2 YM 17467, 17467, +5, +12
Short 2 TF 1156.7, 1156.7, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1157.2, 1157.2, 1157.2, +0.5, -0.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1158.1, 1158.1, +0.5, +0.7
Long 2 YM 17476, 17476, +5, +6
Long 2 YM 17475, 17475, +5, -3
Long 2 NQ 3547.0, 3546.50, -1.25, -0.75
Long 3 TF 1156.4, 1156.5, 1156.4, -0.4, -0.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1155.9, 1159.9, -0.0, -0.3
Total YM +20
Total NQ -4.25
Total TF -2.0
Tough grind finding swings and pullbacks in a Persistent Trend action morning. Although the losses were kept at a minimum by good partial-exit discipline, I took too many trades as frustration set in. Today was a day for breakout traders who took risks right from the opening action. Subsequent bull breakouts would not have proven so successful, as pullback stp-outs would have plagued most outcomes. And getting in sync with the bull as I extended my entries through the Noon Hour Time Marker only added to the frustration as the chop action continued. Pull the plug on it. Some days in the market help the 401k's. Those days are not usually good for intraday futures trades.
20140107
Short 1 TF 1148.5, -0.6
Short 2 YM 17463, 16463, +5, -5
Short 2 NQ 3541.0, 3541.0, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1153.3, 1153.3, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 YM 17469, 17469, -7, -7
Short 2 YM 17477, 17477, +5, -1
Short 2 NQ 3546.50, 3546.25, +1.5, -0.75
Long 2 YM 17467, 17467, +5, +12
Short 2 TF 1156.7, 1156.7, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1157.2, 1157.2, 1157.2, +0.5, -0.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1158.1, 1158.1, +0.5, +0.7
Long 2 YM 17476, 17476, +5, +6
Long 2 YM 17475, 17475, +5, -3
Long 2 NQ 3547.0, 3546.50, -1.25, -0.75
Long 3 TF 1156.4, 1156.5, 1156.4, -0.4, -0.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1155.9, 1159.9, -0.0, -0.3
Total YM +20
Total NQ -4.25
Total TF -2.0
Tough grind finding swings and pullbacks in a Persistent Trend action morning. Although the losses were kept at a minimum by good partial-exit discipline, I took too many trades as frustration set in. Today was a day for breakout traders who took risks right from the opening action. Subsequent bull breakouts would not have proven so successful, as pullback stp-outs would have plagued most outcomes. And getting in sync with the bull as I extended my entries through the Noon Hour Time Marker only added to the frustration as the chop action continued. Pull the plug on it. Some days in the market help the 401k's. Those days are not usually good for intraday futures trades.
Mon Jan 6 Trades & Journal
20140106
Long 2 YM 16407, 16407, +5, -6
Long 1 TF 1149.0, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1149.3, -0.5,
Long 1 TF 1149.4, +1.8
Long 1 ES 1824.75, -0
Short 2 NQ 3519.75, 3519.25, +2.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1147.1, -0.4
PM trades:
Short 2 NQ 3530.75, 3530.25, +2.0, +3.0
Total YM -1
Total NQ +6.5
Total TF +2.1
The third day of trading for the New Year and only slightly better for intraday swing signals than the earlier two. Unlike the earlier two, did not miss an Opening Range signal this time, as prices plummeted straight down without any signal. This breakdown would have been ideal for breakout traders using overnight data, but since I do not include that in my Trade Plan, I had to wait for support to counter-trend trade. But all trades were taken within Plan parameters. The PM signals did include a TF short but was unable to grab it, as the entry level came and went too quickly. At least all three days were profitable, although below profit targets. Stay consistent, the better smaller frame swing signals will always reappear.
Long 2 YM 16407, 16407, +5, -6
Long 1 TF 1149.0, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1149.3, -0.5,
Long 1 TF 1149.4, +1.8
Long 1 ES 1824.75, -0
Short 2 NQ 3519.75, 3519.25, +2.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1147.1, -0.4
PM trades:
Short 2 NQ 3530.75, 3530.25, +2.0, +3.0
Total YM -1
Total NQ +6.5
Total TF +2.1
The third day of trading for the New Year and only slightly better for intraday swing signals than the earlier two. Unlike the earlier two, did not miss an Opening Range signal this time, as prices plummeted straight down without any signal. This breakdown would have been ideal for breakout traders using overnight data, but since I do not include that in my Trade Plan, I had to wait for support to counter-trend trade. But all trades were taken within Plan parameters. The PM signals did include a TF short but was unable to grab it, as the entry level came and went too quickly. At least all three days were profitable, although below profit targets. Stay consistent, the better smaller frame swing signals will always reappear.
Fri Jan 3 Trades & Journal
20140103
Short 3 TF 1152.7, 1153.2, 1153.2, -0, +0.7, +0.8
Long 2 TF 1151.7, 1151.6, -0.5, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1151.9, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1153.1, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1153.3, 1153.4, -0.5, +0.4
Long 1 TF 1153.8, -0.2
Long 3 NQ 3554.25, 3554.25, 3553.5, -0.0, -2.0, -1.5
Long 1 TF 1152.1, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1151.3, 1151.4, +0.7, +1.3
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF +2.3
The NQ contract is well known for having a mind of its own as it sets about establishing a trend, often quite apart from other market sectors. But today the divergence and bifurcation was severe, even for the NQ. Generally, supporting signals from the other contracts are a key element to my Trade Entry Models, and as such, my trading was indeed challenged by this tug-a-war between the NQ and mini Russell small caps index. A small profit is, I well know, better than none at all, and I can console myself and retain a positive attitude on the grounds alone that this kind of severe divergence is a fairly rare market phenomenon. However, I did miss and Opening ORB trade in the TF having no such excuse whatsoever. I simply balked, and missed a great trade that could easily as contributed to fulfilling my unmet daily profit goal. Be determined. Trade the trades in your Trade Plan. If those entry models produce inconsistent results, then they have no business being included in your Plan. So as long as they remain a part of it, take the trades without hesitation.
Short 3 TF 1152.7, 1153.2, 1153.2, -0, +0.7, +0.8
Long 2 TF 1151.7, 1151.6, -0.5, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1151.9, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1153.1, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1153.3, 1153.4, -0.5, +0.4
Long 1 TF 1153.8, -0.2
Long 3 NQ 3554.25, 3554.25, 3553.5, -0.0, -2.0, -1.5
Long 1 TF 1152.1, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1151.3, 1151.4, +0.7, +1.3
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF +2.3
The NQ contract is well known for having a mind of its own as it sets about establishing a trend, often quite apart from other market sectors. But today the divergence and bifurcation was severe, even for the NQ. Generally, supporting signals from the other contracts are a key element to my Trade Entry Models, and as such, my trading was indeed challenged by this tug-a-war between the NQ and mini Russell small caps index. A small profit is, I well know, better than none at all, and I can console myself and retain a positive attitude on the grounds alone that this kind of severe divergence is a fairly rare market phenomenon. However, I did miss and Opening ORB trade in the TF having no such excuse whatsoever. I simply balked, and missed a great trade that could easily as contributed to fulfilling my unmet daily profit goal. Be determined. Trade the trades in your Trade Plan. If those entry models produce inconsistent results, then they have no business being included in your Plan. So as long as they remain a part of it, take the trades without hesitation.
Thurs Jan 2 Trades & Journal
20140102
Long 2 TF 1148.0, 1148.2, +3.0, +0.7
Total TF +3.7
Data problems nearly kept from being able to see my charts for the 1st Frame, but finally cleared up just after the 10:00am economic reports. I missed an Opening ORB trade in the YM, as I worked on refreshing and clearing my program data buffers. Fortunately, I missed no Pre-News setups there, as that is one of my favored Trade Plan Entry Models, and was able to capture the buy signal at the low. I did call one more pullback buy opp in the TF contract, but went unfilled. All-in-all, an ok way to begin the New Year nonetheless. Stay focused. Now is the time to renew all your resolutions to become a more consistently profitable trader. Focus your mind. Become determined to take the trade models you have in your plan without hesitation. Weed out and disgard those trade models that are inconsistent and do not inspire confidence.
Long 2 TF 1148.0, 1148.2, +3.0, +0.7
Total TF +3.7
Data problems nearly kept from being able to see my charts for the 1st Frame, but finally cleared up just after the 10:00am economic reports. I missed an Opening ORB trade in the YM, as I worked on refreshing and clearing my program data buffers. Fortunately, I missed no Pre-News setups there, as that is one of my favored Trade Plan Entry Models, and was able to capture the buy signal at the low. I did call one more pullback buy opp in the TF contract, but went unfilled. All-in-all, an ok way to begin the New Year nonetheless. Stay focused. Now is the time to renew all your resolutions to become a more consistently profitable trader. Focus your mind. Become determined to take the trade models you have in your plan without hesitation. Weed out and disgard those trade models that are inconsistent and do not inspire confidence.
Friday Dec 20 Trades & Journal
20131220
Short 2 TF 1127.6, 1127.6, +0.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1127.7, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1129.7, 1129.6, -0.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1130.8, 1130.8, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1131.8, 1131.7, -0.4, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1132.4, 1132.3, 1131.9, +0.7, +0.5, +0.9
Total TF +1.1
Monthly Totals Dec 2013
Total ES -0
Total YM +152
Total NQ +31.75
Total TF +45.8
Persistent Trend Days are perhaps the most challenging of all day model patterns. The signals for their appearance can arrive with subtlety. Today, I saw those signals very clearly, and posted them in the chat room, and yet, I did not take the corresponding trade entry models buy signals that appeared subsequently in the YM and NQ contracts that would have allowed me to participated in the ensuing advance that was led by the run-way TF Leadership Shift. On many days I remain flexible as to contract choice and suffer no hesitation in taking trades where I find them outside of the favored TF contract. My reluctance today was inexplicable, and cost me the day's profit quota. Stay focused. The object is to win your profit goals, not have it 'your way'. Only Frank Sinatra did it his way. The rest of us do it by what ever means is offered. No trades for the rest of holiday period until Jan. So I wish all a very Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and Happy New Year.
Short 2 TF 1127.6, 1127.6, +0.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1127.7, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1129.7, 1129.6, -0.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1130.8, 1130.8, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1131.8, 1131.7, -0.4, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1132.4, 1132.3, 1131.9, +0.7, +0.5, +0.9
Total TF +1.1
Monthly Totals Dec 2013
Total ES -0
Total YM +152
Total NQ +31.75
Total TF +45.8
Persistent Trend Days are perhaps the most challenging of all day model patterns. The signals for their appearance can arrive with subtlety. Today, I saw those signals very clearly, and posted them in the chat room, and yet, I did not take the corresponding trade entry models buy signals that appeared subsequently in the YM and NQ contracts that would have allowed me to participated in the ensuing advance that was led by the run-way TF Leadership Shift. On many days I remain flexible as to contract choice and suffer no hesitation in taking trades where I find them outside of the favored TF contract. My reluctance today was inexplicable, and cost me the day's profit quota. Stay focused. The object is to win your profit goals, not have it 'your way'. Only Frank Sinatra did it his way. The rest of us do it by what ever means is offered. No trades for the rest of holiday period until Jan. So I wish all a very Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and Happy New Year.
Thurs Dec 19 Trades & Journal
20131219
Long 1 TF 1129.2, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1128.6, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3489.25, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1125.9, 1125.5, -0.7, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1124.9, 1125.0, +1.3, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1124.3, 1124.6, +1.0, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1125.1, 1125.2, 1125.0, +0.5, +0.5, +2.3
Long 2 TF 1125.8, 1125.4, +0.5, +1.2
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF +8.5
Sometimes chop can actually work in your favor, as the small breaks put food right into your hand. Today, the only visible persistence was the plethora of trade entry setups and the need to keep up with them. Kept to the rules of Pre-News positioning today as the Philly Fed 10:00am release counted down to the last minute while I held an NQ position with no profit. Therefore, I took a quick exit for fractional loss, only to see a small pop upwards that would have provided a reward, but at the expense of violating that critical rule and risking an ugly stop-out if wrong: that of never holding a pre-news position if insufficient profit cushion has developed before the actual news release time. More opportunities are always just on the horizon, and there should be no 'missing' of missed trend action, except when ignoring a true Trade Entry Model that worked out well after all. Stick with your Trade Plan. Stay focused. Be rested. Trading is not a causal thing. It requires all you can bring to the task. And if well prepared, once the Opening Bell sounds, just stay calm and wait till all your preparation tells you the model is at hand, and then strike immediately. The 'thinking' part should be over when the bell sounds. Execute the plan. Reflection time is later.
Long 1 TF 1129.2, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1128.6, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3489.25, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1125.9, 1125.5, -0.7, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1124.9, 1125.0, +1.3, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1124.3, 1124.6, +1.0, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1125.1, 1125.2, 1125.0, +0.5, +0.5, +2.3
Long 2 TF 1125.8, 1125.4, +0.5, +1.2
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF +8.5
Sometimes chop can actually work in your favor, as the small breaks put food right into your hand. Today, the only visible persistence was the plethora of trade entry setups and the need to keep up with them. Kept to the rules of Pre-News positioning today as the Philly Fed 10:00am release counted down to the last minute while I held an NQ position with no profit. Therefore, I took a quick exit for fractional loss, only to see a small pop upwards that would have provided a reward, but at the expense of violating that critical rule and risking an ugly stop-out if wrong: that of never holding a pre-news position if insufficient profit cushion has developed before the actual news release time. More opportunities are always just on the horizon, and there should be no 'missing' of missed trend action, except when ignoring a true Trade Entry Model that worked out well after all. Stick with your Trade Plan. Stay focused. Be rested. Trading is not a causal thing. It requires all you can bring to the task. And if well prepared, once the Opening Bell sounds, just stay calm and wait till all your preparation tells you the model is at hand, and then strike immediately. The 'thinking' part should be over when the bell sounds. Execute the plan. Reflection time is later.
Wed Dec 18 Trades & Journal
20131218
Long 2 NQ 3466.25, 3466.25, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1119.5, 1119.4, +0.7, +1.2
Short 1 NQ 3459.25, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1120.8, +0.7
PM trades:
Long 2 TF 1111.6, 1111.6, +0.5, +2.7
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +5.8
Two days prior without journaling and already losing touch with the Trader. But today could not ignore the inner voice any longer because the Trader in me seemed to have lost his voice and was functioning on too much input from the Accountant and the Analyst, at least in the 1st Frame. For although my entries were solid, I was jumping out of TF shorts at the first sign of opposition and had no trade patience at all, thus leaving the lion's share of the profits on the table for the 2 best trade entry models of the morning. The PM went better, as the plan goes, as the pre-FOMC entry model called for longs on the retest of the LOD made some 20 minutes or so prior. Usually I keep a default target in place for that, but the way going back up was so riddled with resistance that I used some of that over-caution left over from the AM to take the profit at initial resistance. Like an FOMC played some months back, this proved way short of the eventual market gains, but it also prevented me from being whiplash'd out of the long by a sharp breakdown first. So the profit from that play was really just luck and caution, not good trading, and therefore cannot reward myself for the strategy or management. Two more trading days this week, and then will be off all of Christmas week. Stay focused.
Long 2 NQ 3466.25, 3466.25, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1119.5, 1119.4, +0.7, +1.2
Short 1 NQ 3459.25, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1120.8, +0.7
PM trades:
Long 2 TF 1111.6, 1111.6, +0.5, +2.7
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +5.8
Two days prior without journaling and already losing touch with the Trader. But today could not ignore the inner voice any longer because the Trader in me seemed to have lost his voice and was functioning on too much input from the Accountant and the Analyst, at least in the 1st Frame. For although my entries were solid, I was jumping out of TF shorts at the first sign of opposition and had no trade patience at all, thus leaving the lion's share of the profits on the table for the 2 best trade entry models of the morning. The PM went better, as the plan goes, as the pre-FOMC entry model called for longs on the retest of the LOD made some 20 minutes or so prior. Usually I keep a default target in place for that, but the way going back up was so riddled with resistance that I used some of that over-caution left over from the AM to take the profit at initial resistance. Like an FOMC played some months back, this proved way short of the eventual market gains, but it also prevented me from being whiplash'd out of the long by a sharp breakdown first. So the profit from that play was really just luck and caution, not good trading, and therefore cannot reward myself for the strategy or management. Two more trading days this week, and then will be off all of Christmas week. Stay focused.
Tues Dec 17 Trades
20131217
Long 4 TF 1111.5, 1111.0, 1110.7, 1110.8, -0.0, +0.5, +0.5, +1.2
Long 2 NQ 3459.25, 3460.0, +2.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1110.4, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3469.25, +3.0
Long 2 YM 15790, 15789, -5, +5
Long 1 TF 1108.5, +1.0
Total YM -0
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +4.2
Long 4 TF 1111.5, 1111.0, 1110.7, 1110.8, -0.0, +0.5, +0.5, +1.2
Long 2 NQ 3459.25, 3460.0, +2.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1110.4, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3469.25, +3.0
Long 2 YM 15790, 15789, -5, +5
Long 1 TF 1108.5, +1.0
Total YM -0
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +4.2
Mon Dec 16 Trades
20131216
Short 1 NQ 3479.75, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 3483.75, 3483.5, +2.0, -1.0
Short 3 TF 1115.9, 1115.9, 1115.7, -0.2, +0.5, +0.7
Short 2 NQ 3489.5, 3489.25, -1.75, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1115.5, 1115.4, +1.0, +0.5
Long 3 TF 1113.8, 1113,7, 1113.1, -0.0, -0.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1112.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1112.5, 1112.4, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1112.3, 1112.2, -0.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1111.7, 1112.0, +0.5, +1.3
Long 2 NQ 3479.75, 3478.75, -2.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1112.1, -0.7
Total NQ -3.75
Total TF +3.9
Short 1 NQ 3479.75, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 3483.75, 3483.5, +2.0, -1.0
Short 3 TF 1115.9, 1115.9, 1115.7, -0.2, +0.5, +0.7
Short 2 NQ 3489.5, 3489.25, -1.75, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1115.5, 1115.4, +1.0, +0.5
Long 3 TF 1113.8, 1113,7, 1113.1, -0.0, -0.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1112.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1112.5, 1112.4, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1112.3, 1112.2, -0.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1111.7, 1112.0, +0.5, +1.3
Long 2 NQ 3479.75, 3478.75, -2.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1112.1, -0.7
Total NQ -3.75
Total TF +3.9
Fri Dec 13 Trades & Journal
20131213
Long 1 NQ 3458.25, +4.0
Long 2 NQ 3455.25, 3455.0, +4.5, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1102.5, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1099.0, 1099.2, +0.7, +0.7
Long 2 YM 15661, 15661, +7, +20
Short 1 TF 1100.8, +0.9
Short 1 TF 1100.5, +1.2
Total NQ +10.5
Total YM +27
Total TF +3.3
Sometimes the contract of choice for us, the mini Russell TF, reverses before actually reaching the next support or resistance or exhaustion number it is approaching on the Pivot / Exhaustion Grid. As a trader, you have choices. You can chase a fill as the market sometimes quickly vacates the buy zone without the preferred price, and accept a price higher up with greater stop-loss risk, and reduced target opportunities; you can skip the trade altogether; or--and this is what I did with the initial long trade opportunity today, you can grab a different contract that might also be offering the same signal but was slower to respond to the turn. Such was the case with the initial NQ long. And I had to chase this a bit further than wanted even to catch it. Such is trading. It's an imperfect world with imperfect methods and a seriously flawed operator who requires his full focus and discipline sometimes just to stay in the game. Stay disciplined. Stick to your Trade Plan. It won't catch every opportunity, and even those it calls correctly will occasionally pass you by on operator error. Wishing all a great weekend.....
Long 1 NQ 3458.25, +4.0
Long 2 NQ 3455.25, 3455.0, +4.5, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1102.5, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1099.0, 1099.2, +0.7, +0.7
Long 2 YM 15661, 15661, +7, +20
Short 1 TF 1100.8, +0.9
Short 1 TF 1100.5, +1.2
Total NQ +10.5
Total YM +27
Total TF +3.3
Sometimes the contract of choice for us, the mini Russell TF, reverses before actually reaching the next support or resistance or exhaustion number it is approaching on the Pivot / Exhaustion Grid. As a trader, you have choices. You can chase a fill as the market sometimes quickly vacates the buy zone without the preferred price, and accept a price higher up with greater stop-loss risk, and reduced target opportunities; you can skip the trade altogether; or--and this is what I did with the initial long trade opportunity today, you can grab a different contract that might also be offering the same signal but was slower to respond to the turn. Such was the case with the initial NQ long. And I had to chase this a bit further than wanted even to catch it. Such is trading. It's an imperfect world with imperfect methods and a seriously flawed operator who requires his full focus and discipline sometimes just to stay in the game. Stay disciplined. Stick to your Trade Plan. It won't catch every opportunity, and even those it calls correctly will occasionally pass you by on operator error. Wishing all a great weekend.....
Thurs Dec 12 Trades & Journal
20131212
Long 1 TF 1103.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1102.1, 1101.9, -0.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1101.5, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1199.5, 1199.7, +1.8, +0.7
Long 2 YM 15769, 15766, +7, +20
Short 2 TF 1102.0, 1101.5, +0.7, -0.2
Long 2 YM 15757, 15753, -0, -7
Long 2 TF 1199.6, 1199.5, -0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1199.0, 1199.0, +1.1, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1102.2, +1.1
Total YM +20
Total TF +6.5
Missed the same initial in-trend breakdown trade today as I did yesterday, and today it became apparent to me why. I was so exclusively focused on the TF contract in the early going,that I missed the YM setup altogether. Later I missed a decent breakout trade in the TF that was also 'in-plan', and one that several students caught. What causes the balking at inflection breakout levels is the sense of action I pick up regarding price proximity to the critical level. If it looks choppy, I duck the breakout trade. But observation teaches that the right inflection levels seem to overcome the action that was choppy just minutes before, and can produce a clean, impulsive breakout altogether different in action than that just preceding it. Have a plan, stick with the plan. Don't worry about what it might do. The Trade Entry Model is either right or it's not. No shoulda-coulda allowed. If the breakout trade is failing enough to really warrant trepidation, then it has no business in being in the plan anyway.
Long 1 TF 1103.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1102.1, 1101.9, -0.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1101.5, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1199.5, 1199.7, +1.8, +0.7
Long 2 YM 15769, 15766, +7, +20
Short 2 TF 1102.0, 1101.5, +0.7, -0.2
Long 2 YM 15757, 15753, -0, -7
Long 2 TF 1199.6, 1199.5, -0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1199.0, 1199.0, +1.1, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1102.2, +1.1
Total YM +20
Total TF +6.5
Missed the same initial in-trend breakdown trade today as I did yesterday, and today it became apparent to me why. I was so exclusively focused on the TF contract in the early going,that I missed the YM setup altogether. Later I missed a decent breakout trade in the TF that was also 'in-plan', and one that several students caught. What causes the balking at inflection breakout levels is the sense of action I pick up regarding price proximity to the critical level. If it looks choppy, I duck the breakout trade. But observation teaches that the right inflection levels seem to overcome the action that was choppy just minutes before, and can produce a clean, impulsive breakout altogether different in action than that just preceding it. Have a plan, stick with the plan. Don't worry about what it might do. The Trade Entry Model is either right or it's not. No shoulda-coulda allowed. If the breakout trade is failing enough to really warrant trepidation, then it has no business in being in the plan anyway.
Wed Dec 11 Trades & Journal
20131211
Long 2 TF 1114.4, 1114.4, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 YM 15913, 15913, 15914, +20, +20, +7
Long 1 NQ 3597.25, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 3502.75, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1108.5, 1109.0, -0.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1108.2, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1108.9, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1109.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1107.7, 1107.6, +1.2, +0.4
PM Trades:
Short 1 TF 1105.8, +1.2
Short 1 YM 15908, +20
Total YM +67
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +2.8
Missed an important inflection breakdown trade today that would have allowed participation in the initial slap down decline. And as a consequence, was left counter trend trading until a signal for the 2nd leg breakdown came, in which I participated modestly. On potential Persistent Trend Days, often the day's quota comes from a single opportunity, and thereafter opportunities can get much harder to find. But all-in-all, the Trade Plan did at least keep me in the game for a decent day's profits. Will spend some time studying those early breakdown opps in the charts for awhile. Some trade entries require a bit of mental rehearsal.
Addendum:
Persistent Trend Day often offers what we call a Last Chance Texaco in-trend entry. This one seems to have come to the anticipated resistance areas, and did offer a decent profit for both a YM and TF initial position. But even after making the call to re -enter the 1-lot after an initial profit target was reached, I balked waiting for a few more ticks and missed the trade entry. That was the reason for grabbing the slower-to-react YM. A profitable day was important as yesterday's profits were only get-even with Monday's losses. And so, I tend to get careful, more interested in the consistency of day-to-day profits than taking the risks to make it a bigger hitter. Still, missing such a good trade entry with a 5 pt swing always disappoints. Stay focused.
Long 2 TF 1114.4, 1114.4, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 YM 15913, 15913, 15914, +20, +20, +7
Long 1 NQ 3597.25, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 3502.75, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1108.5, 1109.0, -0.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1108.2, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1108.9, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1109.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1107.7, 1107.6, +1.2, +0.4
PM Trades:
Short 1 TF 1105.8, +1.2
Short 1 YM 15908, +20
Total YM +67
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +2.8
Missed an important inflection breakdown trade today that would have allowed participation in the initial slap down decline. And as a consequence, was left counter trend trading until a signal for the 2nd leg breakdown came, in which I participated modestly. On potential Persistent Trend Days, often the day's quota comes from a single opportunity, and thereafter opportunities can get much harder to find. But all-in-all, the Trade Plan did at least keep me in the game for a decent day's profits. Will spend some time studying those early breakdown opps in the charts for awhile. Some trade entries require a bit of mental rehearsal.
Addendum:
Persistent Trend Day often offers what we call a Last Chance Texaco in-trend entry. This one seems to have come to the anticipated resistance areas, and did offer a decent profit for both a YM and TF initial position. But even after making the call to re -enter the 1-lot after an initial profit target was reached, I balked waiting for a few more ticks and missed the trade entry. That was the reason for grabbing the slower-to-react YM. A profitable day was important as yesterday's profits were only get-even with Monday's losses. And so, I tend to get careful, more interested in the consistency of day-to-day profits than taking the risks to make it a bigger hitter. Still, missing such a good trade entry with a 5 pt swing always disappoints. Stay focused.
Tues Dec 10 Trades & Journal
20131210
Long 1 TF 1128.1. -0.2
Long 1 TF 1127.1, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1127.1, 1127.0, +0.5, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 3512.50, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3510.0, 3509.5, +2.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1127.1, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3515.75, +2.0
Long 1 YM 15995, +10
Long 1 TF 1128.8, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1120.4, +0.6
Total YM +10
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +2.2
Some very thin and erratic action in the early going, with buy signals flipping back to sell without production really in either direction. When conditions thin, and action so choppy there's no shame in staying small. Shift to the YM or ES or NQ contract where risk is lower and often the volatility too. Yesterday was another Rogue Wave pattern, and like the one of Wednesday the week prior, was a losing day. Important to follow a losing day with a winner, so reduce risks and get back in sync. Forget about getting your lost money back from the prior day. Just get back in sync and post a day's profits. Consistency is key. Your losses will be overcome with consistency, not desperation. Keep focused. Stay disciplined.
Long 1 TF 1128.1. -0.2
Long 1 TF 1127.1, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1127.1, 1127.0, +0.5, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 3512.50, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3510.0, 3509.5, +2.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1127.1, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3515.75, +2.0
Long 1 YM 15995, +10
Long 1 TF 1128.8, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1120.4, +0.6
Total YM +10
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +2.2
Some very thin and erratic action in the early going, with buy signals flipping back to sell without production really in either direction. When conditions thin, and action so choppy there's no shame in staying small. Shift to the YM or ES or NQ contract where risk is lower and often the volatility too. Yesterday was another Rogue Wave pattern, and like the one of Wednesday the week prior, was a losing day. Important to follow a losing day with a winner, so reduce risks and get back in sync. Forget about getting your lost money back from the prior day. Just get back in sync and post a day's profits. Consistency is key. Your losses will be overcome with consistency, not desperation. Keep focused. Stay disciplined.
Mon Dec 9 Trades & Summary
20131209
Long 1 TF 1131.7, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1131.6, 1131.3, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1132.2, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1128.5, 1128.2, -0.1, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1127.7, 1127.2, 1126.8, -1.4, -0.5, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1127.0, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1125.6, 1125.6, 1125.7, -0.8, -0.8, -0.9
Long 3 TF 1125.1, 1125.9, 1125.8, +1.1, +1.0, +0.7
Long 1 YM 16024, +15
Long 1 TF 1127.8, -0.0
Total YM +15
Total TF -2.3
TF lonely collapse blew through several buy signals and support levels before reaching deep oversold at 5th final support level. And there, failed to hold onto the potential runner as a pullback threatened some much needed catch-up profit. Did have a bull breakout signal to re enter that long but was a bit shaken up after bailing out at Mach 5 a couple of times on the way down. Another Rogue Wave formation for TF there, and all contained within the 1st frame, unlike last Wednesday, where the pattern occupied nearly the whole day, and even more dramatically. Use your stp's and manage your losses. The market is always bigger than you, and cannot be predicted or explained. Accept the outcome and stick with your Trade Plan. Good days have occurred far more than those more difficult to trade like today. Chin up, and back at it manana.
Long 1 TF 1131.7, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1131.6, 1131.3, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1132.2, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1128.5, 1128.2, -0.1, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1127.7, 1127.2, 1126.8, -1.4, -0.5, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1127.0, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1125.6, 1125.6, 1125.7, -0.8, -0.8, -0.9
Long 3 TF 1125.1, 1125.9, 1125.8, +1.1, +1.0, +0.7
Long 1 YM 16024, +15
Long 1 TF 1127.8, -0.0
Total YM +15
Total TF -2.3
TF lonely collapse blew through several buy signals and support levels before reaching deep oversold at 5th final support level. And there, failed to hold onto the potential runner as a pullback threatened some much needed catch-up profit. Did have a bull breakout signal to re enter that long but was a bit shaken up after bailing out at Mach 5 a couple of times on the way down. Another Rogue Wave formation for TF there, and all contained within the 1st frame, unlike last Wednesday, where the pattern occupied nearly the whole day, and even more dramatically. Use your stp's and manage your losses. The market is always bigger than you, and cannot be predicted or explained. Accept the outcome and stick with your Trade Plan. Good days have occurred far more than those more difficult to trade like today. Chin up, and back at it manana.
Fri Dec 6 Trades & Journal
20131206
Long 2 TF 1131.2, 1131.4, -0.5, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1130.0, 1130.2, +0.5, +4.0
Total TF +4.7
The Pre-News Trade Entry Model is stock-in-trade for our Trade Plan. Today, just enough premium was created in the final moments leading up to the 9:55am ET pre-lim Consumer Confidence number to hold onto the 2nd unit for the outcome. In the plan, we keep a default target of +4.0 as the exit for our OCO orders. When playing the pre-FOMC report at 2:15pm, that target should be changed to +10. The action was pretty shakey leading into the report, but just holding still payed off for the exit spike. Trade the Plan. This particular model is also presented on Webinar #1 on the website. ...and a good weekend to all...
Long 2 TF 1131.2, 1131.4, -0.5, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1130.0, 1130.2, +0.5, +4.0
Total TF +4.7
The Pre-News Trade Entry Model is stock-in-trade for our Trade Plan. Today, just enough premium was created in the final moments leading up to the 9:55am ET pre-lim Consumer Confidence number to hold onto the 2nd unit for the outcome. In the plan, we keep a default target of +4.0 as the exit for our OCO orders. When playing the pre-FOMC report at 2:15pm, that target should be changed to +10. The action was pretty shakey leading into the report, but just holding still payed off for the exit spike. Trade the Plan. This particular model is also presented on Webinar #1 on the website. ...and a good weekend to all...
Thurs Dec 5 Trades & Journal
20131205
Long 2 NQ 3477.0, 3477.0, +2.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1122.2, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1123.2, 1123.5, -0.8, +0.7
Long 2 YM 15863, 15861, -7, -5
Long 2 TF 1121.5, 1121.0, -1.0, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1120.5, 1120.5, 1120.3, +1.8, +1.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1119.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1118.9, +1.5
Total NQ +6.0
Total YM -12
Total TF +2.2
Well, it wasn't pretty, but it was a profit. As yesterday was good to breakouts, today was good to fades, and poor to breakout players. The simple understanding that since yesterday's range was bookend-reversals, today's was likely to be contained and range bound within, kept me from committing the error of trying to play breakouts today in order to revenge myself for not taking them yesterday. But the small swings today were a bit erratic, nonetheless. The good thing I can say about today was that i was able to step back into trades that continued to fit the entry model, even after they exceeded my risks and was stopped out. Fewer trades taken too, than yesterday. Stay with the Trade Plan.
Long 2 NQ 3477.0, 3477.0, +2.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1122.2, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1123.2, 1123.5, -0.8, +0.7
Long 2 YM 15863, 15861, -7, -5
Long 2 TF 1121.5, 1121.0, -1.0, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1120.5, 1120.5, 1120.3, +1.8, +1.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1119.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1118.9, +1.5
Total NQ +6.0
Total YM -12
Total TF +2.2
Well, it wasn't pretty, but it was a profit. As yesterday was good to breakouts, today was good to fades, and poor to breakout players. The simple understanding that since yesterday's range was bookend-reversals, today's was likely to be contained and range bound within, kept me from committing the error of trying to play breakouts today in order to revenge myself for not taking them yesterday. But the small swings today were a bit erratic, nonetheless. The good thing I can say about today was that i was able to step back into trades that continued to fit the entry model, even after they exceeded my risks and was stopped out. Fewer trades taken too, than yesterday. Stay with the Trade Plan.
Wed Dec 4 Trades & Journal
20131204
Short 1 TF 1121.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1120.0, +1.0
Short 2 YM 15887, 15887, -5, -5
Short 2 YM 15893, 15893, -5, -5
Short 3 TF 1125.0, 1125.5, 1126.0, -0.2, -1.0, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3489.5, 3490.25, -2.5, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1128.5, 1128.7, -0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1128.7, 1128.9, -0.5, -0.2
Midday Frame Trades:
Long 2 TF 1124.0, 1123.5, -1.4, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1122.3, 1122.3, 1122.2, -0.4, -0.4, +1.0
Long 3 YM 15866, 15866, 15866, -5, -5, -5
Long 2 TF 1120.7, 1120.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 YM 15862, 15862, 15862, +15, +15, +20
Long 2 TF 1119.9, 1120.0, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1119.3, 1119.3, 1119.2, -0.5, -0.5, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1119.4, 1119.9, +1.0, +0.7
Total YM +15
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF -3.3
Far outside the normal volatility tolerance of most traders and trade strategies today, except for breakout players, who must be celebrating hard. The best fitting Trade Entry Model to today's action in our Plan was the Pre-News buy signals just prior to the Housing Numbers. Several students apparently got fills but I missed in both the YM and TF where the signals occurred....and then a huge vertical move straight up without me. The profits missed always smart more than the losses accrued, even those shorts at the very highs that I was continually stop'd out of.....right before the big total give-back collapse. Guess you'd say it just wasn't my day. The hesitation I made just a before Pre-10am News was clearly a mental error, but with 2 pts already in hand at that time, is one I'm familiar with, as I tend to get protective about early profits....usually to my detriment. After that, my I suffered non-buyer's regret at all the great profits that woulda-coulda been had I been filled at the lows Pre-News, and suffered from trying to 'get even' with the market by shorting it too quickly. Then too, I ignored the in-plan breakout plays that would have netted good participation in the last part of both the rally to the highs and the sell-off to the lows. So still being affected in my trading by my mental blocks against taking breakouts. Somedays' are just perfect for range expansion and Serial Sequent Inflection breakout trades. Others, not so much. The skill in recognizing the day for what it is early on, and approaching the action with a clear head without trend prejudice, non-participation remorse, or the desire to prove you can out smart the trend by stepping in front of it early are integral to the best mental game a trader can have. When the day presents itself, believe in it, and go with what's offered. A breakout trade taken, but failed is no shameful act as long as the model is in your plan. ...it just makes you feel stupid quickly if you buy a false breakout or sell a false breakdown and are immediately stp'd out. Live with it. Be the Trader. The Trader doesn't care. He is judged by his adherence to the Trade Plan, not his genius insights or tape reading skills. Those belong to the Analyst, and he is not allowed to trade your account in real-time. Challenge him to refine all breakout triggers and model criteria. Then follow the plan. Money management and loss limitations will take you out before you're ruined the week in any single day's trade action. And if in the plan, valid breakout models will keep you in the game and part of the day's true character.
Short 1 TF 1121.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1120.0, +1.0
Short 2 YM 15887, 15887, -5, -5
Short 2 YM 15893, 15893, -5, -5
Short 3 TF 1125.0, 1125.5, 1126.0, -0.2, -1.0, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3489.5, 3490.25, -2.5, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1128.5, 1128.7, -0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1128.7, 1128.9, -0.5, -0.2
Midday Frame Trades:
Long 2 TF 1124.0, 1123.5, -1.4, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1122.3, 1122.3, 1122.2, -0.4, -0.4, +1.0
Long 3 YM 15866, 15866, 15866, -5, -5, -5
Long 2 TF 1120.7, 1120.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 YM 15862, 15862, 15862, +15, +15, +20
Long 2 TF 1119.9, 1120.0, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1119.3, 1119.3, 1119.2, -0.5, -0.5, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1119.4, 1119.9, +1.0, +0.7
Total YM +15
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF -3.3
Far outside the normal volatility tolerance of most traders and trade strategies today, except for breakout players, who must be celebrating hard. The best fitting Trade Entry Model to today's action in our Plan was the Pre-News buy signals just prior to the Housing Numbers. Several students apparently got fills but I missed in both the YM and TF where the signals occurred....and then a huge vertical move straight up without me. The profits missed always smart more than the losses accrued, even those shorts at the very highs that I was continually stop'd out of.....right before the big total give-back collapse. Guess you'd say it just wasn't my day. The hesitation I made just a before Pre-10am News was clearly a mental error, but with 2 pts already in hand at that time, is one I'm familiar with, as I tend to get protective about early profits....usually to my detriment. After that, my I suffered non-buyer's regret at all the great profits that woulda-coulda been had I been filled at the lows Pre-News, and suffered from trying to 'get even' with the market by shorting it too quickly. Then too, I ignored the in-plan breakout plays that would have netted good participation in the last part of both the rally to the highs and the sell-off to the lows. So still being affected in my trading by my mental blocks against taking breakouts. Somedays' are just perfect for range expansion and Serial Sequent Inflection breakout trades. Others, not so much. The skill in recognizing the day for what it is early on, and approaching the action with a clear head without trend prejudice, non-participation remorse, or the desire to prove you can out smart the trend by stepping in front of it early are integral to the best mental game a trader can have. When the day presents itself, believe in it, and go with what's offered. A breakout trade taken, but failed is no shameful act as long as the model is in your plan. ...it just makes you feel stupid quickly if you buy a false breakout or sell a false breakdown and are immediately stp'd out. Live with it. Be the Trader. The Trader doesn't care. He is judged by his adherence to the Trade Plan, not his genius insights or tape reading skills. Those belong to the Analyst, and he is not allowed to trade your account in real-time. Challenge him to refine all breakout triggers and model criteria. Then follow the plan. Money management and loss limitations will take you out before you're ruined the week in any single day's trade action. And if in the plan, valid breakout models will keep you in the game and part of the day's true character.
Tues Dec 3 Trades & Journal
20131203
Long 1 TF 1128.1, -0.1
Long 2 TF 1126.8, 1126.7, -0.7, +0.5
Long 3 TF 1126.3, 1125.4, 1125.3, -1.4, +2.0, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1131.2, 1131.2, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1128.8, 1128.5, +1.0, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1128.9, 1128.8, +1.5, +0.5
Total TF +6.3
The first trend direction of the day is usually rejected. That's why the Test-n-Reject occurs far more often than does the Persistent Trend. But anticipating a reversal can cause you to slip into tape reading to justify an entry that is not quite ripe for a Trade Plan Entry Model. And so it was today for me, as I let my discipline slip with an early long entry. It was close enough to recover with follow-up entries, but nonetheless, it kept me from showing the profits I should have shown from the 1st and most important turn of the 1st Frame. Stay disciplined. Follow the Plan.
Long 1 TF 1128.1, -0.1
Long 2 TF 1126.8, 1126.7, -0.7, +0.5
Long 3 TF 1126.3, 1125.4, 1125.3, -1.4, +2.0, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1131.2, 1131.2, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1128.8, 1128.5, +1.0, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1128.9, 1128.8, +1.5, +0.5
Total TF +6.3
The first trend direction of the day is usually rejected. That's why the Test-n-Reject occurs far more often than does the Persistent Trend. But anticipating a reversal can cause you to slip into tape reading to justify an entry that is not quite ripe for a Trade Plan Entry Model. And so it was today for me, as I let my discipline slip with an early long entry. It was close enough to recover with follow-up entries, but nonetheless, it kept me from showing the profits I should have shown from the 1st and most important turn of the 1st Frame. Stay disciplined. Follow the Plan.
Mon Dec 2 Trades & Journal
20131202
Long 1 NQ 3496.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1138.7, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1136.9, 1137.0, +1.4, +0.9
Long 1 ES 1182.25, +2.0
Short 1 YM 16061, +10
Long 2 TF 1135.7, 1035.9, -0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1135.4, -0.5,
Long 1 TF 1135.4, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1137.7, 1037.5, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1136.5, 1136.6, +.6, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1135.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1134.8, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1134.4, -0.4
Total NQ -2.0
Total YM +10
Total ES +2.0
Total TF-0.7
Not every day is great for trading, and when price is confined to range bound activity, is often hard to understand the range limits till they are well behind you. Several trades within the Plan did keep the P&L in balance, but the best trade in the TF I cut off too soon from loss of patience. Tomorrow is another day. Stay focused. Follow your plan. If your entry models work more often than they fail, eventually the market will come back to favor your entries.
Long 1 NQ 3496.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1138.7, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1136.9, 1137.0, +1.4, +0.9
Long 1 ES 1182.25, +2.0
Short 1 YM 16061, +10
Long 2 TF 1135.7, 1035.9, -0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1135.4, -0.5,
Long 1 TF 1135.4, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1137.7, 1037.5, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1136.5, 1136.6, +.6, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1135.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1134.8, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1134.4, -0.4
Total NQ -2.0
Total YM +10
Total ES +2.0
Total TF-0.7
Not every day is great for trading, and when price is confined to range bound activity, is often hard to understand the range limits till they are well behind you. Several trades within the Plan did keep the P&L in balance, but the best trade in the TF I cut off too soon from loss of patience. Tomorrow is another day. Stay focused. Follow your plan. If your entry models work more often than they fail, eventually the market will come back to favor your entries.
Tues Nov 26 Trades
20131126
Long 2 YM 15071, 15069, -7, +7
Long 1 TF 1125.1, +1.5
Long 1 YM 15069 +13
Short 1 TF 1125.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1125.2, +1.1
Short 2 TF 1128.1, 1128.2, -0.2, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1128.5, 1128.4, +0.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1128.3, 1028.4, -0.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1129.2, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1129.7, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1130.2, 1130.2, -0.1, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1131.1, 1131.2, +1.2, +0.7
Total YM +13
Total TF +2.5
Long 2 YM 15071, 15069, -7, +7
Long 1 TF 1125.1, +1.5
Long 1 YM 15069 +13
Short 1 TF 1125.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1125.2, +1.1
Short 2 TF 1128.1, 1128.2, -0.2, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1128.5, 1128.4, +0.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1128.3, 1028.4, -0.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1129.2, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1129.7, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1130.2, 1130.2, -0.1, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1131.1, 1131.2, +1.2, +0.7
Total YM +13
Total TF +2.5
Mon Nov 25 Trades & Journal
20131125
Long 2 YM 15038, 15038, +10, +16
Short 1 TF 1125.8, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1123.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1123.2, 1122.6, -0.0, +1.2
Short 1 YM 15061, -6
Short 2 TF 1124.1, 1124.0, -05, -0.6
Short 2 TF 11024.6, 1124.5, +1.0, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1124.4, 1124.6, -0.6, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1125.3, 1125.2, +0.5, +1.0
Total YM +20
Total TF +4.3
Seems like pre-holiday type action has already set in for the week, with lots of chop and big divergences. Stuck to the plan pretty well, but found my entries too early several times. As the 1st frame came to an end, and I felt relieved as a means to excuse myself from trading this kind of action, I was amused to see far better signals suddenly show up as the Midday frame found its footing. Yang-Yin. Will trade again tomorrow, but thereafter no more trades this week. Stay focused....
Long 2 YM 15038, 15038, +10, +16
Short 1 TF 1125.8, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1123.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1123.2, 1122.6, -0.0, +1.2
Short 1 YM 15061, -6
Short 2 TF 1124.1, 1124.0, -05, -0.6
Short 2 TF 11024.6, 1124.5, +1.0, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1124.4, 1124.6, -0.6, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1125.3, 1125.2, +0.5, +1.0
Total YM +20
Total TF +4.3
Seems like pre-holiday type action has already set in for the week, with lots of chop and big divergences. Stuck to the plan pretty well, but found my entries too early several times. As the 1st frame came to an end, and I felt relieved as a means to excuse myself from trading this kind of action, I was amused to see far better signals suddenly show up as the Midday frame found its footing. Yang-Yin. Will trade again tomorrow, but thereafter no more trades this week. Stay focused....
Fri Nov 22 Trades & Journal
20131122
Long 2 NQ 3407.5, 3407.75, +3.50, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1119.0, -0.4
Short 2 YM 15979, 15980, +12, +20
Long 1 TF 1116.7, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1121.2, +0.6
Total NQ +4.5
Total YM +32
Total TF +1.9
Unlike yesterday, today's ORB coil came with no pre Philly Fed complication, so I have even less excuse for not taking it as a breakout. Earlier the TF had been the heavier of all contracts, but at this bull breakout level, was suddenly all alone. All the more so should I have been ready to take the breakout, as it had all the right filters: a Pre-Breakout Pause, the 10:30am Trend Check base, and contract Leadership Shift. Put on your blinders. You can't outguess the market, nor out smart it. The trades have qualifying elements. Those elements either appear at the right edge of your video screen, or the do not. Intuition and fear are not allowed. Take the trades, take the consequences. If the trepidation you feel from taking the trade is caused by a legitimate technical aspect, then that aspect should be a filter to the trade every time. Otherwise, ignore it. Stay disciplined.
Long 2 NQ 3407.5, 3407.75, +3.50, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1119.0, -0.4
Short 2 YM 15979, 15980, +12, +20
Long 1 TF 1116.7, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1121.2, +0.6
Total NQ +4.5
Total YM +32
Total TF +1.9
Unlike yesterday, today's ORB coil came with no pre Philly Fed complication, so I have even less excuse for not taking it as a breakout. Earlier the TF had been the heavier of all contracts, but at this bull breakout level, was suddenly all alone. All the more so should I have been ready to take the breakout, as it had all the right filters: a Pre-Breakout Pause, the 10:30am Trend Check base, and contract Leadership Shift. Put on your blinders. You can't outguess the market, nor out smart it. The trades have qualifying elements. Those elements either appear at the right edge of your video screen, or the do not. Intuition and fear are not allowed. Take the trades, take the consequences. If the trepidation you feel from taking the trade is caused by a legitimate technical aspect, then that aspect should be a filter to the trade every time. Otherwise, ignore it. Stay disciplined.
Thurs Nov 21 Trades & Journal
20131121
Short 1 TF 1105.4, +1.1
Short 2 NQ 3393.0, 3392.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1110.0, -0.6
Short 2 YM 15945, 15946, +7, +5
Short 1 TF 1111.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1112.0, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1112.6, +1.0
Total NQ +4.0
Total YM +12
Total TF +3.0
Persistent Trend Day Up signals began with early action, but I failed to capitalize on the TF bull breakout as the Philly Fed approached. That trade was in my Trade Plan, and as I such I violated the plan by not taking it. Instead, I shorted the news with the NQ short, which was also in the plan, and oddly, could have accomplished both with profits. But what I feel best about today was a breakout in TF that I took at the first inflection level, a good deal after the 10:00am news was out. And although I only held the trade for a 1 pt profit, at least broke the ice a bit in my attempts to take breakouts when the filters are aligned. Keep practicing. Habits are difficult to break, and even more difficult to form.
Short 1 TF 1105.4, +1.1
Short 2 NQ 3393.0, 3392.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1110.0, -0.6
Short 2 YM 15945, 15946, +7, +5
Short 1 TF 1111.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1112.0, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1112.6, +1.0
Total NQ +4.0
Total YM +12
Total TF +3.0
Persistent Trend Day Up signals began with early action, but I failed to capitalize on the TF bull breakout as the Philly Fed approached. That trade was in my Trade Plan, and as I such I violated the plan by not taking it. Instead, I shorted the news with the NQ short, which was also in the plan, and oddly, could have accomplished both with profits. But what I feel best about today was a breakout in TF that I took at the first inflection level, a good deal after the 10:00am news was out. And although I only held the trade for a 1 pt profit, at least broke the ice a bit in my attempts to take breakouts when the filters are aligned. Keep practicing. Habits are difficult to break, and even more difficult to form.
Wed Nov 20 Trades & Journal
20131120
Long 2 YM 15935 15934, +7, -7
Long 2 NQ 3385.5, 3385.0, -0.0, +2.0
Long 1 YM 15928, +15
Long 2 TF 1100.3, 1099.8, -1.4., -0.7
Long 2 TF 1098.6, 1098.6, +1.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3380.75, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1104.3, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15981, 15979, +11, +7
Long 1 NQ 3389.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 3384.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3382.0, 3382.0, +3.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 3382.50, 3382.50, +3.0, +3.0
PM trades
Long 1 YM 15928, +20
Total YM +53
Total NQ +16.0
Total TF +0.4
It was important for the day's profits to have stepped back in at more than one buy signal when the volatility blew out my stp's. That's because the buy signals were still there, but at deeper excursion depths in both the initial TF longs and the subsequent NQ longs after those stp-outs. I seldom have trouble doing this, but is worth reminding me to stay with the signal even though the volatility can extend the waves. The biggest miss of the day came with an inflection buy out, and as usual, I balked and was left standing flat as the TF exploded towards earlier identified bull targets. Study the inflections. Note the momentum. Register whether the infection comes as a 1st or 2nd trend direction, and take the trade if these filters are in place. With the right filters, a breakout can be even more rewarding than a pullback opportunity. Review more charts over the weekend, and make further settlements on breakout filters for the Trade Plan. Then, follow the Plan.
Addendum:
FOMC minutes always a draw for those seeking volatility. Saw no pre-news setups as the clock count down arrived inbetwixt a trading range for the day. But the bearish reaction to the news did beget several buy signals, one of which I was bold enough to take in the YM, but no other. I was looking for a decent TF signal, as did not fare much better than b/e there this morning in the 1st Frame. A frame without TF profits is like a day without sunshine. But the only clear TF trade in the PM was a breakdown trade, which in retrospect, would have required a full sized stp-loss in order to survive the whiplash after the trigger entry level. But no shame in trading the NQ and/or the YM. Go where the signals appear. Follow the Trade Plan. Stay disciplined.
Long 2 YM 15935 15934, +7, -7
Long 2 NQ 3385.5, 3385.0, -0.0, +2.0
Long 1 YM 15928, +15
Long 2 TF 1100.3, 1099.8, -1.4., -0.7
Long 2 TF 1098.6, 1098.6, +1.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3380.75, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1104.3, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15981, 15979, +11, +7
Long 1 NQ 3389.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 3384.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3382.0, 3382.0, +3.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 3382.50, 3382.50, +3.0, +3.0
PM trades
Long 1 YM 15928, +20
Total YM +53
Total NQ +16.0
Total TF +0.4
It was important for the day's profits to have stepped back in at more than one buy signal when the volatility blew out my stp's. That's because the buy signals were still there, but at deeper excursion depths in both the initial TF longs and the subsequent NQ longs after those stp-outs. I seldom have trouble doing this, but is worth reminding me to stay with the signal even though the volatility can extend the waves. The biggest miss of the day came with an inflection buy out, and as usual, I balked and was left standing flat as the TF exploded towards earlier identified bull targets. Study the inflections. Note the momentum. Register whether the infection comes as a 1st or 2nd trend direction, and take the trade if these filters are in place. With the right filters, a breakout can be even more rewarding than a pullback opportunity. Review more charts over the weekend, and make further settlements on breakout filters for the Trade Plan. Then, follow the Plan.
Addendum:
FOMC minutes always a draw for those seeking volatility. Saw no pre-news setups as the clock count down arrived inbetwixt a trading range for the day. But the bearish reaction to the news did beget several buy signals, one of which I was bold enough to take in the YM, but no other. I was looking for a decent TF signal, as did not fare much better than b/e there this morning in the 1st Frame. A frame without TF profits is like a day without sunshine. But the only clear TF trade in the PM was a breakdown trade, which in retrospect, would have required a full sized stp-loss in order to survive the whiplash after the trigger entry level. But no shame in trading the NQ and/or the YM. Go where the signals appear. Follow the Trade Plan. Stay disciplined.
Tues Nov 19 Trades & Journal
20131119
Long 2 TF 1107.7, 1101.4, +1.2, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1107.8, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3395.0, 3395.25, -2.0, -2.25
Short 2 TF 1110.1, 1110.1, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 NQ 3399.25, 3395.25, +3.0, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 3395.25, +2.5
Long 1 TF 1108.0, +2.2
Long 2 NQ 3391.25, 3391.5, +2.0, +5.0
PM Trades
Long 2 TF 1097.7, 1097.1, -0.0, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1096.7, +0.9
Total NQ +7.75
Total TF +8.0
Showed the right patience for the initial long as price did eventually break below the Globex low and as per usual, hooked the breakdown shorts for a nice reversal. However, I lost patience with it initially and was too easily misled by how it lagged the YM and NQ on their more immediate strength. The TF can lag too, and a bit more patience at this turn would have caught a better piece of the initial 8 pt reversal excursion. The additional bull breakouts at the top by the TF were all faux, but cannot point to the actual filter that kept me out of them, although can claim that the YM and ES contracts did the initial leadership. I still take few breakouts, and on some days come away quite relieved that I'm so picky with them, but on others, resolve to continue refining the filters that can lead to more exacting breakout trade entry rules. Keep studying this subject. Eventually the haze will clear. Stay disciplined with the plan aspects are already well defined.
Addendum
The market teaches us market truth each day, if we will only see it, and thereby, see through its various disguises that otherwise keep the majority of traders from better success. Am reminded of the famous Heraclitus remark "Nature loves to hide." All you have to do is study the Time Markers yesterday and today and you'll discover one of its most important secrets, and a critical ingredient to any Technical Entry Model. Stay disciplined.
Long 2 TF 1107.7, 1101.4, +1.2, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1107.8, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3395.0, 3395.25, -2.0, -2.25
Short 2 TF 1110.1, 1110.1, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 NQ 3399.25, 3395.25, +3.0, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 3395.25, +2.5
Long 1 TF 1108.0, +2.2
Long 2 NQ 3391.25, 3391.5, +2.0, +5.0
PM Trades
Long 2 TF 1097.7, 1097.1, -0.0, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1096.7, +0.9
Total NQ +7.75
Total TF +8.0
Showed the right patience for the initial long as price did eventually break below the Globex low and as per usual, hooked the breakdown shorts for a nice reversal. However, I lost patience with it initially and was too easily misled by how it lagged the YM and NQ on their more immediate strength. The TF can lag too, and a bit more patience at this turn would have caught a better piece of the initial 8 pt reversal excursion. The additional bull breakouts at the top by the TF were all faux, but cannot point to the actual filter that kept me out of them, although can claim that the YM and ES contracts did the initial leadership. I still take few breakouts, and on some days come away quite relieved that I'm so picky with them, but on others, resolve to continue refining the filters that can lead to more exacting breakout trade entry rules. Keep studying this subject. Eventually the haze will clear. Stay disciplined with the plan aspects are already well defined.
Addendum
The market teaches us market truth each day, if we will only see it, and thereby, see through its various disguises that otherwise keep the majority of traders from better success. Am reminded of the famous Heraclitus remark "Nature loves to hide." All you have to do is study the Time Markers yesterday and today and you'll discover one of its most important secrets, and a critical ingredient to any Technical Entry Model. Stay disciplined.
Mon Nov 18 Trades & Journal
20131118
Long 1 TF 1118.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1117.2, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1114.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1112.2, 1112.1, -0.5, +.7
Long 2 TF 1111.8, 1111.2, -0.0, +1.3
Short 2 YM 15974, 15978, +7, +10
Short 2 TF 1115.1, 1116.0, -0.2, +1.4
Short 2 YM 15976, 15976, +5, -5
Short 2 TF 1116.6, 1116.6, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 3419.0, 3419.25, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1118.4, 1118.4, +0.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1119.1, 1119.2, +1.9, +0.7
Total YM 17
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +5.7
Did not quite have that 'calm in the storm' attitude today that is so needed for the best trade entries. As a result
hurried too many and got in early in the right places, exited a bit early in the wrong places.... but did ok over all. I did duck on breakout in my trade plan. Just couldn't get my fingers to place the order. I must believe better in the trade plan on breakouts, and take my chances on entry models that have the right ingredients.
Long 1 TF 1118.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1117.2, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1114.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1112.2, 1112.1, -0.5, +.7
Long 2 TF 1111.8, 1111.2, -0.0, +1.3
Short 2 YM 15974, 15978, +7, +10
Short 2 TF 1115.1, 1116.0, -0.2, +1.4
Short 2 YM 15976, 15976, +5, -5
Short 2 TF 1116.6, 1116.6, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 3419.0, 3419.25, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1118.4, 1118.4, +0.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1119.1, 1119.2, +1.9, +0.7
Total YM 17
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +5.7
Did not quite have that 'calm in the storm' attitude today that is so needed for the best trade entries. As a result
hurried too many and got in early in the right places, exited a bit early in the wrong places.... but did ok over all. I did duck on breakout in my trade plan. Just couldn't get my fingers to place the order. I must believe better in the trade plan on breakouts, and take my chances on entry models that have the right ingredients.
Fri Nov 15 Trades & Journal
20131115
Long 1 TF 1107.8, +1.0
Total TF +1.0
Don't even bother trying to trade when you're not well. A head cold is minor thing for some occupations, but anything that requires sharp concentration, like operating heavy machinery, is best left till your head is clear. Have a good weekend.
Long 1 TF 1107.8, +1.0
Total TF +1.0
Don't even bother trying to trade when you're not well. A head cold is minor thing for some occupations, but anything that requires sharp concentration, like operating heavy machinery, is best left till your head is clear. Have a good weekend.
Thurs Nov 14 Trades & Journal
20131114
Long 1 TF 1109.9, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1108.4, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1106.7, 1106.9, +0.7, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1106.6, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1105.2, 1105.3, -0.0, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1104.8, 1104.8, 1104.9, +1.4, +1.6, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1103.3, +0.1
Long 1 TF 1104.1, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1103.1, 1102.7, +3.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1104.6, +2.0
Total TF +8.4
Remarkable divergence, and have to admit that it affected me to overconfidence and early entries on the way down. I even took several trades that were outside the model for a Test-n-Reject 1st Frame following on the heals of a Persistent Trend Day Up the day before. And although I used 1 lots and tight stp's for those out-of-model long entries, letting them into my head at that point was a little like letting in the air of intuition and tape reading. This is NOT what you want to do, and leads to being cocky, and eventually, if not checked, the catastrophic habit of assuming you know which way the market is supposed to go. You don't. And at those moments where you most feel right, the market is all the more likely to prove you otherwise. Whatever it is you think you see and is wiser than the current price action of the market itself is being seen by lots of other traders, all probably better at their craft than you. And that's precisely why you're all probably just going to be stopped out. The market is bigger than all that, and the more that see how much the market must be wrong in its own self assessment, the more subsequent liquidation and impulse is most likely about to follow as those thinking they're 'in-the-know' are forced to puke back their positions in humble acknowledgement that 'everybody' is always wrong. Stick with your plan. It doesn't matter if you miss a few trades. Most likely, a hurried entry will just be a stop-out, and will put you into a hole that you'll have to dig out of when the true and completed Trade Entry Models finally make their destined appearance anyway. Stay disciplined.
Long 1 TF 1109.9, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1108.4, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1106.7, 1106.9, +0.7, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1106.6, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1105.2, 1105.3, -0.0, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1104.8, 1104.8, 1104.9, +1.4, +1.6, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1103.3, +0.1
Long 1 TF 1104.1, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1103.1, 1102.7, +3.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1104.6, +2.0
Total TF +8.4
Remarkable divergence, and have to admit that it affected me to overconfidence and early entries on the way down. I even took several trades that were outside the model for a Test-n-Reject 1st Frame following on the heals of a Persistent Trend Day Up the day before. And although I used 1 lots and tight stp's for those out-of-model long entries, letting them into my head at that point was a little like letting in the air of intuition and tape reading. This is NOT what you want to do, and leads to being cocky, and eventually, if not checked, the catastrophic habit of assuming you know which way the market is supposed to go. You don't. And at those moments where you most feel right, the market is all the more likely to prove you otherwise. Whatever it is you think you see and is wiser than the current price action of the market itself is being seen by lots of other traders, all probably better at their craft than you. And that's precisely why you're all probably just going to be stopped out. The market is bigger than all that, and the more that see how much the market must be wrong in its own self assessment, the more subsequent liquidation and impulse is most likely about to follow as those thinking they're 'in-the-know' are forced to puke back their positions in humble acknowledgement that 'everybody' is always wrong. Stick with your plan. It doesn't matter if you miss a few trades. Most likely, a hurried entry will just be a stop-out, and will put you into a hole that you'll have to dig out of when the true and completed Trade Entry Models finally make their destined appearance anyway. Stay disciplined.
Thurs Nov 13 Trades & Summary
20131113
Short 2 NQ 3350.25, 3350.75, -1.25, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1097.1, 1097.1, +0.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1098.8, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3358.25, 3358.0, +2.0, +4.25
Short 2 NQ 3358.25, 3358.5, +2.0, +3.0
Short 3 NQ 3365.25, 3365.5, 3366.0, +2.0, -0.5, +1.5
Long 2 NQ 3361.75, 3361.25, +1.0, +1.5
Total NQ +14
Total TF +2.0
When action gets difficult in your favorite trading vehicle, like the mini Russell contract, there is no shame to move your model entries to another, like the YM or NQ. Sometimes, the setups just aren't there, or they are, and price action is intolerant of your stps and entries. Whatever the reason, your capital is always more important than forcing a trade model into something that doesn't really correspond on the screen. Accept the outcome. The market is its own authority on what works and what doesn't. Your job is to respond to the market. It cannot be controlled. But you can control yourself. Stay disciplined.
Short 2 NQ 3350.25, 3350.75, -1.25, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1097.1, 1097.1, +0.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1098.8, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3358.25, 3358.0, +2.0, +4.25
Short 2 NQ 3358.25, 3358.5, +2.0, +3.0
Short 3 NQ 3365.25, 3365.5, 3366.0, +2.0, -0.5, +1.5
Long 2 NQ 3361.75, 3361.25, +1.0, +1.5
Total NQ +14
Total TF +2.0
When action gets difficult in your favorite trading vehicle, like the mini Russell contract, there is no shame to move your model entries to another, like the YM or NQ. Sometimes, the setups just aren't there, or they are, and price action is intolerant of your stps and entries. Whatever the reason, your capital is always more important than forcing a trade model into something that doesn't really correspond on the screen. Accept the outcome. The market is its own authority on what works and what doesn't. Your job is to respond to the market. It cannot be controlled. But you can control yourself. Stay disciplined.
Wed Nov 12 Trades & Journal
20131112
Long 2 YM 15710, 15711, +7, +11
Short 2 TF 1098.5, 1098.6, +1.2, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1096.8, +1.6
Short 1 NQ 3364.25, +2.0
Total NQ +2.0
Total YM +18
Total TF +3.5
Pretty much stuck to plan today, and can't really fault any failures to take breakouts,
as price remained well contained in our favorite the TF for the 1st Frame action. Stay disciplined.
Long 2 YM 15710, 15711, +7, +11
Short 2 TF 1098.5, 1098.6, +1.2, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1096.8, +1.6
Short 1 NQ 3364.25, +2.0
Total NQ +2.0
Total YM +18
Total TF +3.5
Pretty much stuck to plan today, and can't really fault any failures to take breakouts,
as price remained well contained in our favorite the TF for the 1st Frame action. Stay disciplined.
Mon Nov 11 Trades & Journal
20131111
Short 2 TF 1095.6, 1096.0, +3.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1096.3, -0.3
Short 2 YM 15724, 15728, -6, -3
Short 2 NQ 3362.25, 3362.24, -1.25, -1.25
Short 2 TF 1099.9, 1099.7, +1.3, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1097.4, 1097.3, +1.2, +0.5
Long 2 NQ 3355.75, 3355.50, -1.0, -0.75
Long 1 TF 1096.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1096.1, 1095.9, -0.5, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1095.2, -0.6
Long 2 TF 1094.5, 1094.4, +1.0, +0.9
Long 1 TF 1094.4, +1.0
Total YM -9
Total NQ -4.25
Total TF +8.0
If you were just watching my initial trades within those early TF whipsaws, it might not look like there was any sense to it. But every trade was part of an Entry Model. In fact, I missed two of the best ones today, and still did well. Volatility is the key. The slow bull or bear grinds into Persistent Trends are murder. You need swings to make profits in index futures, otherwise, you may as well be trading wheat. Stay focused. When the entry model appears at the right edge of your video screen, no thinking allowed. Take the trade. Take the consequences. If the model does not work far more often than it fails, it has no business as part of your Trade Plan anyway.
Short 2 TF 1095.6, 1096.0, +3.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1096.3, -0.3
Short 2 YM 15724, 15728, -6, -3
Short 2 NQ 3362.25, 3362.24, -1.25, -1.25
Short 2 TF 1099.9, 1099.7, +1.3, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1097.4, 1097.3, +1.2, +0.5
Long 2 NQ 3355.75, 3355.50, -1.0, -0.75
Long 1 TF 1096.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1096.1, 1095.9, -0.5, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1095.2, -0.6
Long 2 TF 1094.5, 1094.4, +1.0, +0.9
Long 1 TF 1094.4, +1.0
Total YM -9
Total NQ -4.25
Total TF +8.0
If you were just watching my initial trades within those early TF whipsaws, it might not look like there was any sense to it. But every trade was part of an Entry Model. In fact, I missed two of the best ones today, and still did well. Volatility is the key. The slow bull or bear grinds into Persistent Trends are murder. You need swings to make profits in index futures, otherwise, you may as well be trading wheat. Stay focused. When the entry model appears at the right edge of your video screen, no thinking allowed. Take the trade. Take the consequences. If the model does not work far more often than it fails, it has no business as part of your Trade Plan anyway.
Fri Nov 8 Trades & Jounal
20131108
Short 2 TF 1081.9, 1082.9, -1.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1086.5, +1.0, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1083.1, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1086.8, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1087.9, 1088.2, -0.5, +0.7
Short 2 YM 15629, 15630, +16, +7
Short 2 NQ 3349.5, 3349.5, -0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1090.9, +1.2
Total YM +23
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +2.4
Yesterday's Persistent Trend Day Down models were followed immediately by a Persistent Trend Day Up today. This has been just the same Day Model Sequence this bull has demonstrated so many times these many months, and should come as no surprise. Except that I was no more prepared to take the breakout signals in TF on the way up as I was yesterday on the way down. Pullback buy opps in the TF did present themselves, however, and I was quick to respond to those when they appeared. But the best one shortly after the opening went unfilled, and was left on the sidelines for the big initial explosion. Consider the elements to that initial pullback buy opp. They have been seen so many times before. The TF alerted the market to the whole subsequent explosion in those earliest minutes. Write down its elements. Rehearse their reappearance. Be ready for the trade. You must be ready to strike quickly when the model appears, and consider that if the trend has force and is truly explosive, it will fall short of pullback depth expectations, and offer considerable surprise and extension to the inflection breakouts. Be brave at the inflections that fit the trade model filter restrictions. Avoid all others. ...and a good weekend to all.
Short 2 TF 1081.9, 1082.9, -1.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1086.5, +1.0, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1083.1, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1086.8, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1087.9, 1088.2, -0.5, +0.7
Short 2 YM 15629, 15630, +16, +7
Short 2 NQ 3349.5, 3349.5, -0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1090.9, +1.2
Total YM +23
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +2.4
Yesterday's Persistent Trend Day Down models were followed immediately by a Persistent Trend Day Up today. This has been just the same Day Model Sequence this bull has demonstrated so many times these many months, and should come as no surprise. Except that I was no more prepared to take the breakout signals in TF on the way up as I was yesterday on the way down. Pullback buy opps in the TF did present themselves, however, and I was quick to respond to those when they appeared. But the best one shortly after the opening went unfilled, and was left on the sidelines for the big initial explosion. Consider the elements to that initial pullback buy opp. They have been seen so many times before. The TF alerted the market to the whole subsequent explosion in those earliest minutes. Write down its elements. Rehearse their reappearance. Be ready for the trade. You must be ready to strike quickly when the model appears, and consider that if the trend has force and is truly explosive, it will fall short of pullback depth expectations, and offer considerable surprise and extension to the inflection breakouts. Be brave at the inflections that fit the trade model filter restrictions. Avoid all others. ...and a good weekend to all.
Thur Nov 7 Trades & Journal
20131107
Short 3 TF 1101.9, 1102.4, 1102.5, 1102.5, +0.1, +0.5, -0.5, -0.7
Short 2 YM 15747, 15747, +7, +14
Long 2 NQ 3368.25, 3368.25, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 3368.75, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1096.1, 1095.7, -1.0, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1094.6, 1094.0, -1.0, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1091.8, 1091.8, 1091.6, -0.7, -0.7, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1091.0, 1091.0, 1091.0, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1088.3, 1088.8, +2.0, +1.5
Long 2 NQ 3340.25, 3340.75, +5.25, +2.0
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1087.1, 1087.5, -0.8, +0.7
Short 2 YM 15671, 15672, -6, -6
Short 2 TF 1089.9, 1090.2, 1090.2, -1.0, -0.6, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1090.7, 1090.7, +1.5, +0.8
Long 2 TF 1080.9, 1081.9, -0.9, +0.7
Long 2 NQ 3323.75, 3324.75, +5.0, +1.75
Long 2 TF 1078.9, 1079.0, +0.7, +1.4
Total YM +9
Total NQ +17.50
Total TF -0.3
Today, whipsaw volatility kept me treading water. But I took my eye off a critical breakdown level from the larger frame when I failed to find an adequate trigger to enter on shorts in the TF. Chose the NQ instead and got whipped out. Once out of sync, it is always mentally harder to get back in when taking immediate recovery trades. Stepping back from it all, even at the risk of missing the next entry signal, would have been the wiser move this morning. And the Midday Frame trades near the Noon hour fared no better, as the extra excursion there made me play catch-up to early entries and stp-outs too. But I love days like this. The opportunity the market offers is so tremendous. We have to be thankful for all that it brings us, and stay determined to be on our game whenever we approach it with trades. Stay disciplined. Stay calm.
PM Addendum
Moth to the flame, as I couldn't resist the volatility. Only fared moderately better with late PM trades, givijng up on them too soon as is typical when playing catch-up to a losing day. Did manage to crawl back into positive territory after a pretty dismal morning. Since I see each day as a goal of getting positive and staying positive, I don't apologize for taking profits too soon when seeking the return to health for the day. But nonetheless, the best trade in the afternoon I failed to take altogether when I finally got positive, and the earlier short, which required 3 attempts total, was exited so far before it was ripe as to be embarrassing. When the dust settles on this day, will take the time to review it in detail over the weekend, as the best source of self-improvement is always in one's own trades. Stay focused. Be objective in self criticisms. The market is always bigger than you, and you are forever a student of the market.
Short 3 TF 1101.9, 1102.4, 1102.5, 1102.5, +0.1, +0.5, -0.5, -0.7
Short 2 YM 15747, 15747, +7, +14
Long 2 NQ 3368.25, 3368.25, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 3368.75, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1096.1, 1095.7, -1.0, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1094.6, 1094.0, -1.0, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1091.8, 1091.8, 1091.6, -0.7, -0.7, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1091.0, 1091.0, 1091.0, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1088.3, 1088.8, +2.0, +1.5
Long 2 NQ 3340.25, 3340.75, +5.25, +2.0
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1087.1, 1087.5, -0.8, +0.7
Short 2 YM 15671, 15672, -6, -6
Short 2 TF 1089.9, 1090.2, 1090.2, -1.0, -0.6, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1090.7, 1090.7, +1.5, +0.8
Long 2 TF 1080.9, 1081.9, -0.9, +0.7
Long 2 NQ 3323.75, 3324.75, +5.0, +1.75
Long 2 TF 1078.9, 1079.0, +0.7, +1.4
Total YM +9
Total NQ +17.50
Total TF -0.3
Today, whipsaw volatility kept me treading water. But I took my eye off a critical breakdown level from the larger frame when I failed to find an adequate trigger to enter on shorts in the TF. Chose the NQ instead and got whipped out. Once out of sync, it is always mentally harder to get back in when taking immediate recovery trades. Stepping back from it all, even at the risk of missing the next entry signal, would have been the wiser move this morning. And the Midday Frame trades near the Noon hour fared no better, as the extra excursion there made me play catch-up to early entries and stp-outs too. But I love days like this. The opportunity the market offers is so tremendous. We have to be thankful for all that it brings us, and stay determined to be on our game whenever we approach it with trades. Stay disciplined. Stay calm.
PM Addendum
Moth to the flame, as I couldn't resist the volatility. Only fared moderately better with late PM trades, givijng up on them too soon as is typical when playing catch-up to a losing day. Did manage to crawl back into positive territory after a pretty dismal morning. Since I see each day as a goal of getting positive and staying positive, I don't apologize for taking profits too soon when seeking the return to health for the day. But nonetheless, the best trade in the afternoon I failed to take altogether when I finally got positive, and the earlier short, which required 3 attempts total, was exited so far before it was ripe as to be embarrassing. When the dust settles on this day, will take the time to review it in detail over the weekend, as the best source of self-improvement is always in one's own trades. Stay focused. Be objective in self criticisms. The market is always bigger than you, and you are forever a student of the market.
Wed Nov 6 Trades & Journal
20131106
Short 3 TF 1107.6, 1107.8, 1108.3, +1.3, +0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1101.2, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1099.5, +1.3
Long 2 NQ 3377.0, 3370.0, -0.0, -2.25
Long 1 TF 1095.0, +1.3
Total NQ -2.25
Total TF +4.4
Sometimes your Trade Plan will fail you. Although the TF sell signals came in near the highs, and I was able to enter cleanly, further breakdown levels were filtered out by the plan when the momentum indicator warned of over extension.... and yet, it broke right an inflection point for the cleanest breakdown of the morning, without me. I'll keep an eye on this in order to gauge what other considerations might be made for the momentum indicator, but generally as a tool, it has kept me out of far more trouble and into far more clearer turns than kept me out of deeper excursions. Also, the strong bull divergence today by the ES and YM, which I did recognize as a distraction to the TF bear leadership, nonetheless, hurried my exit on the first TF position on caution that the big caps might yet keep the TF at least retesting the HOD (High-of-Day). There's never any use in castigating oneself over 'should have known better's or 'if only I hadn't's. Your plan is always imperfect. And your plan can always be improved. Trust in your plan if it works far more often than it fails. But be mindful of insights that might improve it, if you've seen those technical aspects along the way... a few thousand times....
Short 3 TF 1107.6, 1107.8, 1108.3, +1.3, +0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1101.2, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1099.5, +1.3
Long 2 NQ 3377.0, 3370.0, -0.0, -2.25
Long 1 TF 1095.0, +1.3
Total NQ -2.25
Total TF +4.4
Sometimes your Trade Plan will fail you. Although the TF sell signals came in near the highs, and I was able to enter cleanly, further breakdown levels were filtered out by the plan when the momentum indicator warned of over extension.... and yet, it broke right an inflection point for the cleanest breakdown of the morning, without me. I'll keep an eye on this in order to gauge what other considerations might be made for the momentum indicator, but generally as a tool, it has kept me out of far more trouble and into far more clearer turns than kept me out of deeper excursions. Also, the strong bull divergence today by the ES and YM, which I did recognize as a distraction to the TF bear leadership, nonetheless, hurried my exit on the first TF position on caution that the big caps might yet keep the TF at least retesting the HOD (High-of-Day). There's never any use in castigating oneself over 'should have known better's or 'if only I hadn't's. Your plan is always imperfect. And your plan can always be improved. Trust in your plan if it works far more often than it fails. But be mindful of insights that might improve it, if you've seen those technical aspects along the way... a few thousand times....
Tues Nov 5 Trades & Summary
20131105
Long 2 NQ 3368.0, 3368, +1.5, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1098.4, 1098.5, -0.5, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1098.0, 1097.9, +1.5, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1097.1, 1096.6, 1096.4, -1.4, +0.7, -0.7,
Long 2 TF 1096.3, 1096.1, -0.7, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1095.9, 1095.9, 1096.0, +0.7, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1094.01, 1094.01, +1.7, +4.0
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +5.1
Was determined again to take the breakouts, when they fulfilled the Trade Plan requirements and were not filtered out by caveats. Today, nearly missed a short on break on the way down because I failed to set up my platform for a stp-n-rev trigger. After it broke, it returned for a moment back up to the breakdown level, which means I only caught that short by luck, as many breakdowns do not have initial counter trend reactions, and instead, just run away. As it was, had I used the two-contract breakout strategy on stp-n-rev's I had intended, I would have exited one with +0.4 TF, and been stop-d out the second on the initial counter-break reaction at -0.4 TF, net nothing. As it was, since I entered on a pullback after the breakdown, I got a better fill than the breakdown itself, and was in with a pullback auto-strategy, which exited the first of two contracts at the better +0.7, and left the second open for some play. If this was the more normal occurrence to breakouts, it would beg the question as to whether breakouts are generally better taken not on the breakout itself with a stop-entry order, but on a pullback into the pre-breakdown pause pattern that spawned it. Breakouts are tricky, and again this throws me back into some research.
The best part of my trading today, however, was not the usual absence of my balking at a Trade Plan breakout play, but the persistence I showed when the final buy signal came in the TF near the Low of Day. With a support number at 1094.0, I called entry at 94.01 into a strong Serial Sequent structure buy signal. I remember some years ago when pulling such a trigger against all the usual beginner Do-Not-Do rules, such as, 'never buy a new low', would have kept me out of that trade. But with the True Trend Momentum Indicator actually turning up while the market was making that new low, and a significant exhaustion level being penetrated for the necessary finishing confluence, I was able to enter that order without much emotion at all, and could see to call off the initial targets for better profits than the auto-exits would have on the way up.
And finally, another good night's sleep, with about an hour earlier to bed than usual, lent a distinct background to the mental ease with which I seemed to approach trading today. That odd paradox of patience and persistence seemed to be right at my beckoning when needed. Get your needed rest. Stay focused. Follow your Trade Plan. If your plan is not working, go back to the simulator until it does, or until you've found a Trade Plan that actually works far more often than it fails. You're lost without it.
Long 2 NQ 3368.0, 3368, +1.5, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1098.4, 1098.5, -0.5, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1098.0, 1097.9, +1.5, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1097.1, 1096.6, 1096.4, -1.4, +0.7, -0.7,
Long 2 TF 1096.3, 1096.1, -0.7, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1095.9, 1095.9, 1096.0, +0.7, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1094.01, 1094.01, +1.7, +4.0
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +5.1
Was determined again to take the breakouts, when they fulfilled the Trade Plan requirements and were not filtered out by caveats. Today, nearly missed a short on break on the way down because I failed to set up my platform for a stp-n-rev trigger. After it broke, it returned for a moment back up to the breakdown level, which means I only caught that short by luck, as many breakdowns do not have initial counter trend reactions, and instead, just run away. As it was, had I used the two-contract breakout strategy on stp-n-rev's I had intended, I would have exited one with +0.4 TF, and been stop-d out the second on the initial counter-break reaction at -0.4 TF, net nothing. As it was, since I entered on a pullback after the breakdown, I got a better fill than the breakdown itself, and was in with a pullback auto-strategy, which exited the first of two contracts at the better +0.7, and left the second open for some play. If this was the more normal occurrence to breakouts, it would beg the question as to whether breakouts are generally better taken not on the breakout itself with a stop-entry order, but on a pullback into the pre-breakdown pause pattern that spawned it. Breakouts are tricky, and again this throws me back into some research.
The best part of my trading today, however, was not the usual absence of my balking at a Trade Plan breakout play, but the persistence I showed when the final buy signal came in the TF near the Low of Day. With a support number at 1094.0, I called entry at 94.01 into a strong Serial Sequent structure buy signal. I remember some years ago when pulling such a trigger against all the usual beginner Do-Not-Do rules, such as, 'never buy a new low', would have kept me out of that trade. But with the True Trend Momentum Indicator actually turning up while the market was making that new low, and a significant exhaustion level being penetrated for the necessary finishing confluence, I was able to enter that order without much emotion at all, and could see to call off the initial targets for better profits than the auto-exits would have on the way up.
And finally, another good night's sleep, with about an hour earlier to bed than usual, lent a distinct background to the mental ease with which I seemed to approach trading today. That odd paradox of patience and persistence seemed to be right at my beckoning when needed. Get your needed rest. Stay focused. Follow your Trade Plan. If your plan is not working, go back to the simulator until it does, or until you've found a Trade Plan that actually works far more often than it fails. You're lost without it.
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