Monday Jun 27 2011

Short 1 TF 769.9, -0.4
Short 2 TF 797.9, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 800.3, 800.4, 800.9, +0.1, -1.1, -0.7
Short 2 TF 802.0, 802.0, +1.5, +1.5
Long 1 TF 798.8, -0.5
Total TF -0.6
Trade Summary
Long 2 YM 11938, 11939, 11939, -5, -5, -5
Long 2 TF 794.4, 794.4, +0.7, -0.8
Long 2 TF 793.1, 793.1, +1.0, -0.0
Long 1 TF 793.3, +3.0
Long 1 TF 794.2, -0.4
Long 1 TF 793.4, +3.0
Long 1 TF 794.2, -0.6
Total YM -15
Total TF +5.9

Weekly Summary
Jan 20-24 2011
Total YM -15
Total TF +16.1

Sometimes the Day Model of one day is predictive of that of the next. Yesterday's deep gap down opening was characterized by the obvious TF relative strength. Today that action was mimic'd, at least initially. Ergo, buying against the lows and exiting into the bounces was the strategy again today. And although the TF relative strength failed to produce the same kind of recovery reversal, the strategy worked initially with handsome bounces and decent profits anyway.
Trade Summary
Long 1 TF 779.3, +2.3
Short 1 TF 785.9, -1.0
Short 1 TF 787.1, -1.1
Long 2 TF 784.0, 784.0, +1.5, +3.5
Long 1 TF 782.1, -0
Total TF +5.2

Divergence is a powerful tool. The two best trades today,both longs, came with strong divergence signals. The first was just a few ticks from the LOD in the TF contract in early selling. The YM and ES both were busy making full structured moves. But the TF, often the smarter, checked up and held just above its low established along side the YM and ES two waves earlier. Add some big size bids showing in TF at that level, and the buy was the proverbial silver platter. The second buy came later, on a pullback, after the big initial recovery rally from those lows. Just at the moment of perceived opportunity, around 10:28am ET, the YM again made a new LOD, this time solo, while the TF spiked down into a bit of a vacuum. It bounded back up nearly four points in just a few minutes.

Wed, Jun 22 2011, FOMC day

Trade Summary
Short 2 TF 802.1, 802.1, +1.2, +1.2
Short 1 TF 802.7, -0.8
Total TF +1.6

The previous format for FOMC was maximum anticipation and
immediate release, when the rate adjustments were scheduled
for 2:15pm. The 12:30pm release throws a bit of water
on that, as it seems to be more of a non-event now. And it
is further muddied by an endless drone on by Fed Chief Bernanke,
who comes on with a press conference at 2:15pm, where instead
of an immediate burst of energy, prices vacillate to the tune
of his remarks. Take me back to the previous format, please.

Tuesday, Jun 21, 2011 Persistent Trend Day Model

Trade Summary
Short 1 TF 793.2, -1.4
Short 4 TF 795.5, 795.5, 796.2, 796.7, -1.6, -1.6, -0.9, -0.4
Short 2 TF 798.9, 798.8, +1.3, +1.2
Short 2 TF 799.6, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 798.6, -0.4
Short 1 TF 799.8, -0.3
Short 1 TF 801.2, +1.0
Short 2 TF 801.9, 801.8, +1.2, +2.0
Total +2.1
There are few day models harder trade in than the Persistent Trend Day. We all recognize it when we see it, but not usually until it is well into its trend. Then the feeling that it's just too late to participate overwhelms, and we are left with counter trend trade entries, often leading to frustrating stp-outs. The best entry--and often the only one all day, often comes midday as price drifts back to important resistance. Once hit, action recovers the trend and proceeds onto new price extremes. Today's was classic. And although I managed to counter trend trade into a small profit, I'm not proud of it. And as for that one good opportunity to get in sync on a midday pullback? ....I was away from the screen, having wore myself out trying to stay afloat with counter-trend trades all morning.

Monday, Jun 20, 2011

Trade Summary
Short 3 TF 782.0, 782, 783.2, -0.3, -0.3, +1.1
Long 2 TF 778.3, 778.4 777.6, +0.5, +0.5, -0
Short 2 TF 782.8, 782.2, +0.8, +1.2
Long 2 TF 784.5, 784.2, -1.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 783.3, -0.7
Total TF +1.3

Wednesday, Jun 15, 2011

Trade Summary
Short 2 TF 785.5, 786.2, +0.2, +1.0
Long 2 TF 785.6, 785.3, +0.2, +2.2
Long 2 TF 773.3, 773.3, +1.0, +2.0
Total +6.6

Tue, Jun 14, 2011

Trade Summary
Short 1 TF 782.5, -0.3
Short 1 TF 783.9, 784.1, -0.3, -0.5
Short 1 TF 785.4, -0.2
Short 2 TF 786.3, 786.4, +0.7, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 2247.25, -0.75
Short 2 TF 790.4, 790.4, +0.7, +1.7
Short 1 TF 791.5, +1.0
Long 2 TF 790.1, 790.0, +0.7, +1.0
Total NQ -0.75
Total TF +4.0