Fri Jan 30 Trade Summary

20150130
Long 1 TF 1180.2, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1182.6, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1183.3, +1.1
Long 2 NQ 4181.5, 4179.75, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1175.0, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1171.9, +2.0
Long 1 ES 2000.5, -1.75
Long 1 TF 1167.7, 1167.9, +1.1, +2.0
Total ES -1.75
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +7.1

Thurs Jan 29 Trades & Journal

20150129
Long 2 YM 17119, 17113, +10, -0
Long 1 YM 17119, -10
Long 2 TF 1166.3, 1166.4, +0.7, +4.0
Long 2 NQ 4097.75, 4097.75, +5.0, +9.0
Total YM -0
Total NQ +14.0
Total TF +4.7

Earlier in week was spanked hard by overplaying what I read as just a pullback, ignoring a WorkDone signal at the slam-down low, Channel Midpoint support from two days earlier. There is a temptation to try and get those losses back quickly. This often results in a sort of revenge trading, taking even greater risks than those that incurred the losses in the first place. But the best revenge is consistency. Once lost, that money is gone forever. You can never actually get that piece of capital back. But you can recover your positive equity curve by returning to consistently profitable days. Forget your losses, unless they trigger a Behavior Governor that returns you to the simulator. Instead, focus on the day at hand. Stay disciplined. Return to consistency and profits will return to your account to overtake your losses. ...but your losses......those are gone for good.

Wed Jan 28 Trade Summary

20150128
Short 2 NQ 4220.25, 42202.5, +2.0, +5.0
Short 1 NQ 4202.25, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 4224.5, 4223.25, +8.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1189.5, -0.5
Short 1 YM 17398, -7
Short 1 TF 1189.4, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1190.8, 1190.7, +0.7, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1187.5, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1185.6, +1.0
Total YM -7
Total NQ +16.5
Total TF +2.0

Tues Jan 27 Trades & Journal

20150127
Long 1 YM 17322, +20
Long 1 TF 1185.9, -1.4
Long 3 TF 1185.2, 1185.4, 1185.6, +1.4, +1.0, +3.6
Total YM +20
Total TF +4.6

The most important element to your success as the Trader is consistency, not big days. Suffering through a long series of losing days in order to capitalize well and overcome those losers with a nice net profit might be good for the mind set of Larry Williams, but for most of us, a series of losing days is debilitating, to say the least. Thus as a behavior governor to a trade plan, 2 or 3 losing days in a row should have serious consequences. ...namely, it's time to go back to the simulator. Getting back your losses the very next day, however, is exactly what the Accountant wants of you. And he might be willing to take any amount of risks and stretch any number of entry models to suite an entry if it means that losses might be recovered from recent days. Instead, it is best just to regain some consistency. Be willing to quit early if necessary just in order to report a profit on a day after a losing day. Your losses are gone forever. You can't ever have that money back. But you might earn your way back into your positive equity curve by regaining a streak of consistently winning days. Put it in your Plan. Be the Plan.

Mon Jan 26 Trades & Journal

20150126
Short 3 TF 1179.0, 1179.8, 1180.0, -1.4, -0.7, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1181.0, 1181.0, 1181.6, -1.6, -1.6, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1182.3, 1182.3, 1182.3, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1183.7, 1183.7, 1183.7, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1187.5, 1187.5, +2.0, +2.0
Total TF -6.3

Sometimes you fail your Trade Plan. The trades are all in front of you, but you balk, or believe you know better than your plan and proceed into a trade without it. But sometimes your Trade Plan fails you. On those days, its the volatility that you depend on so much blows right through your stops, one level after another. But there is always something to learn from any day's losses. And today, I failed to recognize, unlike the low on Friday, that today's low was just as significant as a WorkDone concept and more worthy of my respect than my early shorts proffered. Slow down when surprising volatility appears. Something bigger is afoot than your normal stops and swings. Let it work itself out, then step in as others are finally being stop'd out of their unworthy assumptions. Be disciplined.

Fri Jan 23 Trade Summary

20150123
Long 2 YM 17698, 17697, +20, +7
Long 1 YM 17690, -5
Short 2 YM 17712, 17714, -7, -5
Long 1 NQ 4262.5, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1184.4, +1.8
Short 2 TF 1186.4, 1186.2, +3.0, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 4254.0, +1.0
Short 1 YM 17723, +18
Short 2 TF 1188.2, 1188.0, +0.7, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1191.6, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1192.7, +2.0
Total YM +28
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +9.4

Thurs Jan 22 Trades & Journal

20150122
Short 2 NQ 4188, 4189.0, +8.0, +2.0
Long 2 ES 2021.5, 2020.0, +3.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1162.5, 1162.8, -0.9, +0.7
Short 1 NQ 4187.5, -3.0
Short 2 NQ 4190.0, 4190.0, +5.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1166.9, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1166.2, -0.9
Short 1 TF 1167.4, -0.6
Short 2 NQ 4204.25, 4204.5, -1.5, -1.5
Short 1 YM 17550, -3
Short 3 TF 1172.7, 1172.7, 1172.7, +1.0, +1.0, +2.0
Total ES +5.0
Total YM -3
Total NQ +8.0
Total TF +5.3

Although several reversals and pullbacks were profitable, can feel the smarting from not having taken a critical set of breakouts as the 2nd trend ensued. Filters were perfect. But where was my head at the opportunities? At moments like this, it can facilitate an entry by considering certain levels of structure, price and momentum as stp-n-reverse levels. Think of the entry as a fork or inflection. Don't enter the one without considering the other. They are part of the same trade, not separate, and in so doing, can help alleviate the trend prejudice that slips in when feeling compelled to 'catch' the reaction before it gets away. What if the 'reaction' is the new trend? Then enter that pullback as a stp-n-reverse. Today, I resigned to think of the mental image of wearing a baseball cap, but turning it around backwards for some trades. It's like Tin Cup being told to untie one shoe when stuck in a shanking mode while playing golf. Throw something off kilter. Change it up. Remember, Corollary #2 to the Douglas Premise: "most of the opportunity that is missed in the markets is missed by traders who were unable to concede that the market could go the expected distance--but in the opposite direction." Get focused.

Wed Jan 21 Trades & Journal

20150121
Short 1 YM 17444, -12
Short 3 YM 17462, 17462, 17462, +7, +17, +30
Long 3 YM 17404, 17396, 17391, -12, -12, -12
Long 3 YM 17375, 17375, 17375, +20, +20, +35
Total YM +81

Takes trades where you find them. Sometimes signals are scant in the early going. Today, it was all in the YM for the 1st frame of the day. Be prepared to re-enter after being stp'd out if the aspects of the Entry Model are still in place, but the stretch of prices has exceeded initial support levels and proceeded to the next. Such things are not predictable. We don't predict, we position. ...and then once in the trade, we manage. Be alert. Be rehearsed. If this, then that. This is the role of the Trader.

Tues Jan 20 Trade Summary

20150120
Short 1 TF 1174.1, +2.0
Long 1 YM 17427, +18
Long 2 NQ 4134.0, -3.0
Long 2 NQ 4128.5, 4129.0, -2.25, +2.0
Long 3 YM 17334, 17334, 17334, +7, +20, +30
Long 2 TF 1163.3, 1163.7, 1163.2, +2.8, -0.0, +1.0,
short 2 NQ 4143.0, 4143.0, +2.0, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1158.8, +1.3
Total YM +75
Total NQ +1.75
Total TF +7.1

Fri Jan 16 Trade Summary

Trade Summary
20150116
Short 3 TF 1157.7, 1157.5, 1156.8, +2.0, +0.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1159.9, +3.0
Total TF +6.7

Thur Jan 15 Trades & Journal

20150115
Long 1 TF 1170.6, +2.1
Long 1 ES 2000.00, +2.5
Long 3 TF 1164.0, 1164.0, 1164.6, +1.3, -1.2, -0.8
Long 3 TF 1162.8, 1162.8, 1163.5, +3.2, -0.4, +1.2
Long 1 YM 17287, -12
Long 2 TF 1157.4, 1157.4, +1.8, +3.5
Short 1 TF 1166.1, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1167.5, +1.4
Total ES +2.5
Total YM -12
Total TF +13.4

A runner is difficult thing to establish for several reasons. First, it requires a multiple contract position. No use trying to make a runner of a 1-lot, or even a 2nd most of the time. Giving up profits on the assumption that one's genius to find the true start of the next intraday reversal trend is just arrogance. Despite all the technical minutia that can pile up into a Trade Entry Model, no such clairvoyance is remotely possible. Therefore, it falls on the third contract of a multi-contract position for such a task. Today, I gave up a 3pt TF paper gain twice trying to survive a series of retests into a full reversal, only to get knocked out just prior to the Philly Fed release. Then, having been 'trained' by the market not to do such a thing again, I trailed my stp to +3.5 pts on a second Sequent series reversal, only to gain the 3pts but give up a runner whose excursion eventually carried some 14 pts higher. You can't undue your previous mistake by applying the solution later at the wrong place. But such subtleties are hard to learn. The best I can learn from the experience is that-when determined to make the 3rd contract a runner--not to move my the stop-loss away from break-even until the first full pullback in the lower time frame bars has completed, thus at least giving some confirmation that the trend will continue, and providing a place to hide the stop with some gain for runner in hand... Stay focused.

Wed Jan 14 Trade Summary

20150114
Long 1 YM 17304, +38
Short 2 YM 17377, 17376, +7, -7
Short 2 TF 1174.5, 1174.6, +2.2, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 4157.5, +8.0
Total YM +38
Total NQ +8.0
Total TF +3.2

Tues Jan 13 Trades & Journal

20150113
Long 1 TF 1190.1, +1.5
Short 2 ES 2048.0, 2048.25, -1.5, +0.25
Short 3 TF 1193.9, 1193.6, 1193.5, -0.3, +0.7, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1198.4, 1198.1, 1198.3, +1.0, +0.7, +0.7
Long 2 YM 17799, 17803, +14, +7
Long 2 TF 1195.7, 1195.3, +1.4, +0.7
Total ES -1.25
Total YM +21
Total TF +7.4

Trading is full of apprehensions. "It's failing to go any higher..." at the point where it wants to breakout; "Having gone so high, this pullback has to turn soon and get back in trend..." at the juncture where it's about to fail and puke the whole morning back down. But the Trader is a machine. He leaves all the emotion to the Analyst and the Accountant. Their emotions and assumptions are congenital. There's no point in being annoyed with them. They are who they are, and they always want more of the same. But the Trader works on principles and rules. These, he imposes on himself from the outside. They are not inherited or given. They are acknowledged and practiced until habitual. The Trader is self-made. Assign the Trader limits to the temptations of bad trading behavior, and the requirement that he take certain entry models despite--or even because of--overwhelming apprehensions. The Trader is the Rule of Law.

Mon Jan 12 Trades & Journal

20150112
Long 1 TF 1172.4, -1.4
Long 3 TF 1171.3, 1170.3, 1170.8, +0.7, +1.0, -.8
Long 1 YM 17507, -7
Short 1 NQ 4163.5, -3.0
Short 1 TF 1170.6, +0.3
Short 2 TF 1170.3, 1170.4, -0.7, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1172.1, 1172.0, +1.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1171.4, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1172.0, 1173.0, +0.2, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1172.2, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1173.5, +0.3
Short 2 YM 17583, 17584, -7, +7
Short 2 TF 1157.6, 1175.4, +0.5, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1177.1, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1179.0, 1179.2, -0.7, +7.0
Short 3 NQ 5143.0, 4183.0, 4183.5, +2.0, +3.0, +7.0
Total YM -7
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +2.7

After catching up with several profitable trades in the TF, I made a mistake of ignoring the still-climbing momentum and shorted too soon. On the way, up is was quite the opposite where I lacked the patience to stay in long at an inflection trigger as the market continued to climb. Patience is a difficult thing to measure while trading. But not having it at all is too often the source of critical trading errors. Take a breath before entering and before exiting before a target is acquired. Let the current bar flesh itself out... it just might surprise you in its closing moments.

Fri Jan 9 Trades & Journal

20150109
Short 2 TF 1190.0, 1190.9, +2.1, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1189.1, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 4226.25, -3.0
Long 2 NQ 4226.5, 4226.5, +2, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 4235.25, +5.0
Short 1 1188.8, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1189.6, -0.6
Long 1 TF 1188.3, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1186.1, 1185.6, -1.4, -0.7
Long 3 NQ 4210.75, 4210.75, 4210.75, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0
Long 3 TF 1182.8, 1182.8, 1182.8, +0.7, +1.5, +2.0
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +4.4

Today fell prey to an old nemesis, the apparent character of the action. What it seems to be doing is often just a disguise to what it will eventually do. As Heraclitus reminds us down through the ages, "Nature loves to hide". If fact, it might be said of Mother Nature that its one of her most endearing qualities....except when you've been successfully deceived by it time and time and time again. So it was today as I reached for a pullback that was no pullback at all, but actually the budding trend ready to collapse. Later trades made up for it, but I need to recall those moments when I thought I knew what the market was trying to do under that very specific type of market action, and use that as an alarm bell to trigger a reminder of Corollary #2. "....most of the money that is lost in the markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which way the market was trying to go."

Thurs Jan 8 Trades & Journal

20150108
Short 2 ES 2041.75, 2041.75, 2043.25, -0.0, -3.0, -1.5
Short 1 NQ 4203.75, -1.25
Short 2 TF 1183.9, 1183.3, -0.3, -0.0
Short 2 NQ 4204.0. -1.25, -1.25
Long 1 TF 1184.7, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1186.2, +1.3
Short 2 TF 1187.8, 1187.9, -0.8, +0.7
Short 2 YM 17751, 17751, +7, -7
Short 3 TF 1187.5, 1187.9, 1188.3, -0.7, -1.0, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1189.5, 1189.0, 1189.0, +1.0, -0.7, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1188.8, 1189.4, 1188.8, +1.2, +0.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1187.2, 1187.0, +1.0, +0.7
Total ES -4.5
Total YM -0.0
Total NQ -3.75
Total TF +1.5

Persistent Trend Days are the most challenging to trade. And an opening gap-n-go leaves the shorts covering quickly to truncate the early pullback buy-opps. On such days I suffer from lack of patience to get something on the books, mentally pushing the market where it doesn't intend to go rather than just observing coolly what it is saying it is. By that time the 1st Chance Texaco model arrived, I was making up for earlier losses, and couldn't wait to book enough profit to breathe at the near break-even point for me on the day. Thus a frustrating day. Stay cool. Consider what's in front of you without jaundiced eye. It is what it is, whatever it is. Be into what it is and not what you want it to be.

Wed Jan 7 Trade Summary

20150107
Short 1 YM 17444, -5
Short 1 NQ 4135.5, 4135.75, -1.0, +4.0
Short 1 NQ 4142.5, +4.0
Short 1 YM 71482, -6
Short 1 YM, 17482, +13
Long 2 YM 17453, 17443, -5, +5
Long 3 TF 1160.6, 1160.6, 1160.5, +1.2, +1.8, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1160.0, +1.5
Total YM +2
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +5.5

Confluence is entry models is everything. ....but not if you don't take advantage of a full compliment of minutia arriving simultaneously to greet a complete Technical Event Concept and Entry Model with a full position. Rehearse everything in your Trade Plan. If this, then that. No thinking allowed.

Tues Jan 6 Trades & Journal

20150106
Long 1 TF 1180.7, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1175.5, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 4165.5, +4.5
Short 1 TF 1173.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1172.5, 1172.8, +0.2, +1.0
Short 2 NQ 4159.5, 4162.5, -4.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 4167.5, 4167.5, +3.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1170.8, +1.3
Long 1 NQ 4141.5, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1168.2, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1166.8, 1166.8, +1.0, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1165.9, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1165.2, 1165.2, -0.7, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 4126.75, 4126.75, +2.0, -1.0
Long 3 TF 1162.2, 1162.4, 1162.6, +0.7, +0.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1161.1, -0.0
Total NQ +6.5
Total TF +3.5

Entry models are imperfect when incomplete. A little higher into an identified resistance or lower into a critical support. Today I balked at such a place when the TrendCheck should have put me in at least a partial position even though the more desired entry number in the NQ was still failing to be achieved. Being stubborn can leave you on the sidelines in critical moments, and the more ideal entry levels typically fail to accrue when the market is eager to continue in its trend. That's the description of a Persistent Trend Day and must be accepted and dealt with, as is. Stay focused.

Mon Jan 5 Trades & Journal

Trade Summary
20150105
Long 1 NQ 4203.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1183.1, 1183.3, +0.7, +5.9
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +6.6

Reducing the number of trades one takes towards fulfilling a profit goal would be ideal....if only it were that easy.
While fumbling with conflicting ORB signals in the NQ, I missed the ORB signals in the TF, which could have positioned me for both the early decline as well as the subsequent reversal. Keep your focus. The market is composed of disparate indices and indicators that must be monitored simultaneously as a whole. From there, event concepts can be recognized in confluence. The operations of executing trades can take your eye off the ball. Don't let the operations of trade execution take your eye off the ball. See the whole field. Be the Plan.

Fri Jan 2 Trades & Journal

20150102
Long 1 TF 1208.1, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1208.1, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1205.1, 1205.3, +2.0, +0.7
Long 1 NQ 4249.25, +8.0
Long 2 NQ 4247.5, 4247.0, +6.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1187.0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1194.0, 1193.0, -1.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1191.6, 1191.3, -1.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1185.6, 1185.2, +4.0, +3.0
Total NQ +18.0
Total TF +5.7

Welcome to 2015. Welcome to the new volatility. The rules of Serial Sequent suggest an arithmetic algorithm for the fractal outline, but only a suggestion on length of waves from the Rules of Alternation. That means, when the entry model is still intact, but price has blown through successive levels of support / resistance, there's nothing to do but re-enter the trade after stop-outs...and today, those stop-outs were successive. Stay calm, wait til the next level, and consider re-entry there. But sailors take note, perhaps the Ides of 2015 are upon us with the January indicator signal flashing full on yellow. Stay focused.