Wed Apr 29 Trades & Journal

20150429
Short 2 TF 1254.3, 1254.1, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1248.5, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1248.3, +2.0
Total TF +4.0

Two losing days in a row is something to be avoided. In my own trade plan, such an event requires me to start the 3rd on the simulator, just to get back in sync. On the day after a losing day, consider that it's more important to finish the day a winner, even if missing a few trades, just to try and get the consistency back. Getting consistency back is far more important than getting back the money you lost the day before.

Tues Apr 28 Trades & Journal

20150428
Short 1 TF 1253.2, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1253.8, +1.2
Long 1 NQ 4514.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4508.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1250.9, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 4502.00, 4502.00, +4.0, +8.0
Long 1 YM 17961, -12
Long 3 TF 1243.3, 1243.5, 1243.5, -1.4, +1.5, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1241.4, -1.5
Short 3 TF 1246.6, 1246.2, 1246.6, -1.4, +0.5, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1247.8, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 4508.0, -2.0
Short 3 TF 1248.9, 1248.9, 1249.1, -1.4, -1.4, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1251.0, 1251.0, 1251.0, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Total YM -12
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF -4.3

The market is always bigger than you are...and on some days much, much bigger. There is a tendency to fight the 2nd trend direction of the day when the reversal into that trend fails to meet your entry qualifications required to catch it. Such is was for me today, as the bottom came shy of several technical ingredients necessary for entry, and I was left watching it progress through a number of resistance levels and structure levels without being able to enjoy it's offerings to those who, by other means, were participating in the rapid retracement back towards the Opening levels. ....thus, I fought with it with shorts, and lost all the early profits of the initial trades. Don't fight the market on strong impulse action. Your tendency to do so will only put you into the majority company of those also doing so who are only fueling it further. ....and be sure to cut your losses off at about the same number of profit points you set as a daily goal. Tomorrow is another day....

Mon Apr 27 Trades & Journal

20150427
Short 1 TF 1268.4, +1.7
Long 1 NQ 4543.5, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1272.1, 1273.1, 1273.2, -1.5, -1.4, -1.4
Short 2 YM 18085, 18085, +7, +14
Short 2 TF 1274.4, 1274.4, +1.2, +1.2
Long 2 YM 18065, 18066, +7, +20
Long 2 TF 1272.6, 1272.5, -0.4, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1272.2, 1272.2, +0.5, -0.7
Long 2 YM 18063, 18063, +10, -3
Long 3 TF 1271.8, 1271.7, 1271.5, -1.4, -1.4, -1.4
Long 2 NQ 4542.5, 4542.5, +2.0, -2.0
Long 4 TF 1264.8, 1264.8, 1264.5, 1264.7, -0.5, -0.5, +0.7, -0.5
Long 2 YM 18033, 18033, +7, +20
Long 1 NQ 4538.0, +5.0
Long 2 TF 1263.4, 1263.5, +1.5, +1.7
Long 1 TF 1255.9, -1.4
Long 1 TF 1250.4, +1.6
Total YM +82
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF -1.7

It has been long acknowledged here that the TF leads the market, but that also signals from the other contracts in confluence can consistently be used to trade the TF when its own signals are lacking. Today.....not so much, as the signals from the NQ and YM were true enough to be taken on their own, but proved unsuccessful for trading in the TF. Trading just one of the 4 main stock indices can be myopic, and worse, it can lead to losing days where stubborn determination to make your chosen contract obey your calls. The market does not obey. It commands. ...and we must listen and follow.

Fri Apr 24 Trade Summary

20150424
Long 1 TF 1268.8, -0.6
Long 1 YM 17955, -5
Short 1 TF 1267.7, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1267.7, 1267.5, +1.0, -0.2
Short 4 YM 17982, 17982, 17988, 17983, -0, -0, +20, +20
Long 1 TF 1264.6, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1266.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1266.6, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1267.2, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1267.9, 1268.0, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4517.75, 4517.75, +2.0, +5.0
Total YM +35
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF -0.3

Thu Apr 23 no trades, away from market

Wed Apr 22 Trade Summary

20150421
Long 1 TF 1261.0, -0.5
Short 1 YM 17904, +30
Long 2 NQ 4421.0, 4421.0, +2.0, +7.0
Long 1 TF 1255.6, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 4420.0, -2.0
Long 2 YM 17836, 17837, +7, -7
Long 2 TF 1253.7, 1253.7, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 ES 1286.75, 1286.75, -1.5, -1.5
Long 2 ES 1284.5, 1284.5, +3.0, +5.0
Short 1 ES 1289.75, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1258.5, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 4433.75, +3.0
Total ES +7.0
Total YM +30
Total NQ +10
Total TF +1.5

Tues Apr 21 No trades, away from market

Mon Apr 20 Trade Summary

20150420
Short 3 NQ 4387.5, 4387.5, 4389.25, -0.0, +1.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1258.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1256.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1255.6, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1255.0, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1261.2, +1.1
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +4.6

Fri Apr 17 Trade Summary

20150417
Long 2 YM 17868, 17868, +15, +20
Long 2 YM 17855, 17846, -12, -5
Long 2 YM 17837, 17837, +10, -7
Long 2 TF 1257.7, 1257.8, -0.7, -0.8
Long 2 TF 1256.4, 1256.4, 1255.5, +0.7, +1.0, -0.7
Long 4 TF 1254.7, 1254.7, 1254.3, 1243.2, +0.7, +0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1251.6, 1251.6, +0.5, -1.0
Long 5 TF 1250. 1250.0, 1249.0, 1249.2, 1249.1, +1.4, +1.4, +2.0,+1.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1247.9, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 4342.25, 4342.25, +4.0, +6.0
Total YM +21
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +4.8

Thur Apr 16 Trade Summary

20150416
Short 2 TF 1270.9, 1271.4, +0.3, +1.1
Long 1 TF 1269.4, -0.6
Long 1 TF 1268.7, -0.6
Long 1 NQ 4409.25, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1270.3, 1270.4, +0.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1270.6, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1270.5, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 4408.5, -3.0
Short 2 TF 1271.1, 1270.9, -0.3, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 4411.75, 4413.25, -2.0, +2.0
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +0.9

Wed Apr 15 Trade Summary

20150415
Short 1 YM 18051, +3
Short 3 NQ 4406.25, 4405.5, 4406.5, -1.0, +2.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1166.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1268.2, 1268.0, +0.7, -0.8
Short 2 NQ 4410.25, 4409.0, +0.5, +0.4
Short 2 TF 1268.1, 1268.3, +1.2, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1267.0, +1.3
Total YM +3
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +2.4

Tues Apr 14 Trades & Journal

20150414
Long 1 TF 1264.4, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1264.0, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1261.1, 1261.1, +0.7, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1259.2, -0.2
Long 3 NQ 4382.0, 4381.0, -3.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1258.4, 1258.4, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 NQ 4371.5, 4371.5, 4371.25, +5.0, +5.0, +8.0
Long 2 TF 1254.7, 1254.7, -0.8, -0.8
Short 2 YM 17869, 17869, +15, +20
Long 1 TF 1255.8, +1.0
Short 2 NQ 4377.5, 4378.0, +6.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1259.0, 1259.1, +1.1, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1261.2, -1.4
Short 4 TF 1263.4, 1263.5, 1263.6, 1264.3, -0.0, +0.5, +0.4, +1.6
Total YM +35
Total NQ +21.0
Total TF -0.7

So often I must return to my journal to criticize my lack of fortitude when breakout triggers are ignored and big moves are left on the table. But today, with a huge bull breakout inflection in the TF coming well after the lows were in is just not one of those occasions. You can learn from any market. Everyday it teaches you where the best trades reside, but the TF and YM breakout action doesn't fit any of my current models, and thus requires more study. Whenever I see something new, I take a scan of the pattern and Sequent structure in order to compare it to others I've yet also been unable to catalog. Eventually, some common details will emerge, and considerations toward trading it can be weighed against its consistency and frequency of appearance.

Mon Apr 13 Trade Summary

0150413
Long 1 TF 1262.8, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1264.6, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1264.6, 1265.1, -0.0, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1265.7, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1265.9, -0.4
Long 2 YM 18008, 18006, -8, -4
Long 1 NQ 4433.25, +3.0
Long 3 TF 1267.5, 1267.4, 1267.6, +1.0, +0.5, +0.5
Total YM -12
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +2.3

Fri Apr 10 Trade Summary

20150410
Long 2 NQ 4387.25, 4387.25, +2.0, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1261.3, 1260.9, +0.7, +1.2
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +1.9

Thurs Apr 9 Trades & Journal

20150409
Long 3 NQ 4380.5, 4378.5, 4379.5, +2.0, -1.0, +2.0
Long 1 YM 17810, -10
Long 2 TF 1257.6, 1257.5, +1.2, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1255.6, 1255.9, +0.7, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1254.6, 1254.7, 1254.7, +0.7, +2.7, +0.7
Total YM -10
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +6.0

Breakouts can be tricky. I often choose the wrong ones to go with and get stp'd out. When this happens a few times it becomes background as to following those entry models in my Trade Plan when they reappear. Today, with a decent set of trades under my belt and my profit goal reached early into the 1st Frame, I passed on a breakout model that appeared well before the end of the frame... and watched it fall 10 pts in profits without me. On the emotion side of things, missing that trade hurt a lot more than all the annoying stp-outs of the day before. That's how it goes. Nothing hurts more than missed opportunities... and even that can become a negative background to trading in the form of a sense of pressure not to miss potential opportunities, even trading outside one's plan in order not to miss them. Don't trade outside your plan. And if a breakout model is in your plan, then take it regardless as to whether the last one worked or not. If your breakout models are not finding any consistency in breakout mode, then you have the wrong filters and they have no business in your plan in the first place. But if they are in your plan, then trade them. You can't have it both ways. Putting anything in your plan that you do not take as a trade because you 'didn't like the trade' the very essence of weakness you thought to eradicate by having a Trade Plan in the first place.

Wed Apr 8 Trade Summary

20150408
Short 3 TF 1253.4, 1254.3, 1254.9, -1.6, -1.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1254.9, 1254.9, 1255.6, -1.4, -1.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1256.2, 1256.4, -1.0, -1.0
Short 3 TF 1258.2, 1258.4, 1258.4, +1.5, +2.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1255.3, 1255.3, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 4350.5, 4350.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 4 NQ 4343.0, 4343.0, 4343.0, 4343.0, +2.0, +2.0, -0.0, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 4343.75, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1254.3, 1254.9, -0.0, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 4354.25, 4354.25, +2.0, +4.0
Short 2 NQ 4357.25, 4357.25, -1.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1257.25, -0.4
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF -2.2

Tues Apr 7 Trade Summary

20150407
Short 2 YM 17881, 17880, +7, +20
Long 1 NQ 4354.75, -1.5
Long 2 YM 17843, 17842, -5, +7
Long 2 NQ 4348.75, 4348.0, -2.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1255.2, 1255.2, +1.0, +1.4
Short 1 NQ 4359.0, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1258.7, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1259.2, 1259.2, +0.5, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1259.2, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1259.6, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1258.9, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1259.1, +1.2
Total YM +29
Total NQ -3.0
Total TF +2.6

Mon Apr 6 Trade Summary

20150406
Short 2 TF 1255.7, 1255.8, -0.7, +0.7
Short 2 YM 17686, 17686, +10, +20
Short 2 TF 1256.9, 1256.9, +0.7, +0.3
Short 3 YM 17679, 17686, 17688, , +7, +7, -14
Short 1 NQ 4319.0, -3.0
Short 1 TF 1254.4, -0.7
Short 2 4320, 43.19.25, -3.0, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1258.3, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1255.5, +2.0
Total YM +30
Total NQ -8.0
Total TF +4.3

Thur Apr 2 Trades & Journal

20150402
Long 1 TF 1249.6, +1.8
Long 2 NQ 4394.5, 4394.5, +6.0, +9.0
Short 2 NQ 4306.5, 4307.25, +2.0, -2.5
Short 2 NQ 4316.5, 4317.75, -3.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1257.5, 1257.3, +0.7, +1.0
Total NQ +13.5
Total TF +3.5

A Blessed Easter and Passover to all....

Wed Apr 1 Trades & Journal

20150401
Long 2 YM 17582, 17582, -10, -10
Long 3 YM 17571, 17571, 17571, -7, -7, -7
Long 4 YM 17559, 17559, 17555, 17548, -0, -0, -7, -10
Long 4 TF 1237.0, 1237.0, 1237.0, 1236.9, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0 -0.5
Long 1 TF 1235.9, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1240.3, 1240.3, -0.4, -0.4
Short 4 TF 1242.5, 1242.5, 1243.5, 1243.5, +1.0, +1.0, +1.0, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1242.5, 1242.4, +1.7, +1.7
Short 2 TF 1243.8, 1243.6, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1244.3, 1244.3, -0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1245.4, -0.7,
Short 2 TF 1242.2, 1242.2, +1.0, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1242.2, +1.0
Total YM -58
Total TF +1.2

When we miss in-trend entries, and the market takes off hard without us, we are usually left waiting for pullbacks to enter into the trend we've missed, or choose structural and support level intersections from which to fade the trend into a reversal. Today, having missed both TF and NQ opening short signals, and no pullback bounces on which to get short, I was left to fading the initial collapse, and all unsuccessfully. The slowness and apparent incompleteness of that early low seemed only to extend the eventual pullback far beyond reason, so the pullback short opportunities were challenging as well. Keep your losses manageable. Valid entry models will eventually reappear at the right edge of your video screen. It may only mean that you recover from losses with subsequent gains, but not all days are destined to be profitable. The market is full of surprises that overwhelm your expectations. Stay within your limits, accept your stp-outs with humility. Stay with the game until you've reached your trading limits, whether in losses or in total number of trades taken. Today's resolution is to return to full readiness when ORB setup trades appear, and take them to get a jump on such early explosive openings to be on the right side of things... and if those trades are missed, resist entering into those early trend fades when clear signs that support levels are being ignored are playing out before your eyes. Stay calm...accept the outcome.