Mon Nov 25 Trade Summary and Journal

20191125
Short 1 ES 3126.0, -0.0
Short 2 YM 27963, 27966, -0, -0
Short 2 RTY 1608.1, 1608.1, -1.4, -1.4
Short 1 YM 27876, -7
Short 3 YM 27885, 27883, 27893, +10, -10, +11
Short 1 NQ 8355.5, -2.25
Short 1 NQ 8358.25, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 8360.0, 8360.0, +4.50, -1.25
Short 2 RTY 1612.9, 1613.0, -1.4, -1.4
Short 1 NQ 8363.0, -2.0,
Short 2 NQ 8364.25, 8364.25, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 RTY 1616.2, 1617.0, -1.4, -1.4
Short 3 YM 28002, 28002, 28001, -0, -0, -1
Short 2 RTY 1618.0, 1618.3, -0.7, -0.5
Short 4 RTY 1619.5, 1619.5, 1619.7, 1619.7, +1.3, +1.5, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 RTY 1621.1, 1621.1, 1621.4, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 RTY 1622.2, 1622.2, +3.0, +3.0
Total ES -0.0
Total YM +3
Total NQ -7.25
Total RTY -3.9

Persistent Trend Days are almost always the hardest to trade. It's the swings that allows us to gauge price returning to possible entry levels, and thereafter, the breakouts that allow us to gauge the potential for exhaustion. But the Persistent Trend Day is often an express train straight out of town... Miss your initial signal opportunities and you're bound to be left behind.. Just so was it today, that even though we were given individual entry opportunities in the YM, the NQ and the RTY, I judged with the breakout and the gap it left behind, that were we already too high up to be buying, even if the entry signals, and thus awaited fresh new price highs after the quick long entry signals to attack with shorts. Oops... As background, I had announced before the opening that it had been awhile since we saw a Persistent Trend Day, and therefore could be due. But that didn't help me one bit in acknowledging the early NQ pattern setup associated with such Persistent Trend Signals, as I simply looked at it dumbly with my proverbial doe eyes in the headlights of the oncoming truck. The early pattern signal by the NQ I named Leadership Pennant some years ago, but filtered it out as unlikely simply because I felt we were already too high up already. That's right... I "felt" it was so... and that was a buy signal in and of itself.... so to be true to this confessional blog, I ignored 3 clear signals to the budding trend. The first was the NQ Leadership Pennant, the 2nd's were the small but nonetheless indisputable Serial Sequent buy triggers in YM, NQ and RTY, and the third were my 'feelings' to the contrary. And I've been doing this for years. Sometimes you conclude that you just never learn... Tomorrow is another day... and the last for this trader in Thanksgiving week.

Fri Nov 22 Trade Signal Summary

20191122
Short 1 NQ 8292.5, -2.5
Long 1 RTY 1588.5, +2.0
Short 2 RTY 1591.9, 1592.7, +1.2, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 8278.0, +8.0
Long 1 NQ 8274.0, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 8275.0, +5.25
Long 1 NQ 8245.0, -1.0
Total NQ +9.75
Total RTY +5.2

Thurs Nov 21 Trade Signal Summary

20191121
Long 1 NQ 8264.0, -1.25
Long 1 NQ 8263.0, +10.5
Short 1 RTY 1592.5, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 8280.0, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 8284.75, -2.0
Long 1 RTY 1583.7, -0.7
Long 1 RTY 1582.0, -0.7
Long 1 RTY 1581.5, -0.2
Long 1 NQ 8256.25, -2.25
Long 2 NQ 8256.5, 8256.5, +5.0, +5.0
Short 1 RTY 1584.5, +2.0
Total NQ +18.0
Total RTY +3.4

Wed Nov 20 Trade Signal Summary

20191120
Short 1 NQ 8329.5, +10.0
Long 1 NQ 8322.5, +9.5
Short 1 RTY 1601.2, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 8337.0, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 8338.0, -2.25
Long 1 NQ 1599.8, +2.5
Total NQ +16.25
Total RTY +1.8

Tues Nov 19 Trade Signal Summary

20191119
Short 2 RTY 1598.5, 1599.2, -0.0, +2.2
Long 1 YM 28005, -7
Long 1 NQ 8347.0, +5.25
Long 1 RTY 1594.6, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 8340.5, +5.0
Long 1 RTY 1591.3, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 8335.25, -2.25
Long 1 NQ 8333.5, -2.25
Long 1 NQ 8331.75, +7.0
Total YM -7
Total NQ +12.75
Total RTY +5.2

Mon Nov 18 Trade Signal Summary

20191118
Long 1 YM 27961, -7
Long 2 YM 27950, 27952, -7, +11
Long 1 NQ 8280.0, +13.0
Long 1 RTY 1588.5, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 8300.0, 8301.0, +2.25, +10.0
Short 1 RTY 1593.2, -0.3
Total YM -3
Total NQ +25.25
Total RTY +1.7

Fri Nov 15 Trade Signal Summary

20191115
Short 1 YM 27844, -3
Short 1 NQ 8303.0, +8.0
Short 1 YM 27851, +21
Long 1 NQ 8293.0, -2.25
Long 2 NQ 8290.0, 8290.0, +2.0, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 8311.0, 8311.5, +2.0, +7.5
Short 1 YM 27875, -0
Short 1 NQ 8318.0, -0.0
Short 1 YM 27892, -8
Total YM +10
Total NQ +16.75

Thur Nov 14 Trade Signal Summary

20191114
Long 1 RTY 1589.8, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 8246.0, -2.25
Long 2 NQ 8242.5, 8242.5, +3.0, +12.25
Long 1 NQ 8250.0, -1.5
Long 2 NQ 8234.0, 8234.0, -0.0, -2.25
Long 2 NQ 8232.5, 8232.5, +2.0, -2.25
Long 2 YM 27699, 27699, +15, +15
Total YM +30
Total NQ +9.0
Total RTY +3.0

Wed Nov 13 Trade Signal Summary

20191113
Long 2 RTY 1582.7, 1582.7, +1.2, +3.2
Long 1 NQ 8258.0, -2.25
Long 2 NQ 8256.5, 8256.25, -2.25, -2.25
Long 1 NQ 8248.5, -2.25
Long 2 NQ 8244.5, 8244.5, -2.25, -2.25
Long 3 NQ 8238.75, 8238.75, 8239.25, +7.25, +10.0, +4.0
Short 2 RTY 1587.5, 1587.6, +2.0, +1.4
Long 1 YM 27628, -0
Short 1 YM 27668, +10
Short 1 YM 27666, -3
Total YM +7
Total NQ +7.75
Total RTY +7.8

Tues Nov 12 Trade Signal Summary

20191112
Short 1 NQ 8271.5, +5.0
Short 1 NQ 8273.0, +5.0
Short 1 RTY 1600.4, -0.2
Short 1 RTY 1600.2, -0.4
Short 2 NQ 8280, 8279.5, -1.0, +2.5
Short 1 NQ 8281.75, -2.25
Short 3 NQ 8285.0. 8285.0, +2.5, -0.0, -2.5
Short 1 RTY 1604.4, -0.6
Short 2 RTY 1605.5, 1606.0, -1.4, +3.5
Short 2 NQ 8288.5, 8289.25, -2.25, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 8290.5, 8291.5, -2.25, -2.25
Short 3 NQ 8291.25, 8291.25, 8292.25, +2.5, -2.5, -2.5
Long 1 NQ 8290.0, -1.0
Long 2 YM 27680, 27680, +11, -1
Long 2 NQ 8281.0, 8280.0, +11.0, +5.0
Long 1 ES 3095.0, -0.0
Total ES -0.0
Total YM +10
Total NQ +12.75
Total RTY +0.9

Mon Nov 11 Veterans Day, no trades

Fri Nov 8 Trade Signals and Journal

20191108
Long 1 RTY 1588.5, +4.0
Short 1 RTY 1593.9, -0.7
Short 2 RTY 1595.4, 1595.4, +1.0, -1.1
Short 1 NQ 8231.5, -0.0
Short 2 RTY 1598.0, 1597.7, +4.0, +1.3
Long 1 YM 27548, +53
Total YM +53
Total NQ -0.0
Total RTY +8.5

Today was a good example of a pre-news signal model. Sell signals appeared in all four contracts YM, NQ,RTY and ES, just 12 minutes or so before the scheduled news release. This time, the news was released just prior to the schedule, but I had a cushion in the RT prior to the release. 'No cush, no keep'. I had set the target at a support level some 4 points lower to the Curb, so my exit came quickly, otherwise, it would have been a 10 pt gain clear to the Kilroy. For the long YM trade at the lows, the Grid, the TTI True Trend Momentum, and the Serial Sequent Fractal Algorithm all came together for the turn-and-reverse back to long. For an understanding of the price levels associated with a pivot - exhaustion grid instead of a support - resistance array, see the book Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades, available at Amazon.com. The TTI and Serial Sequent methodologies are available only to course members of ValhallaFutures.

Thur Nov 7 Trade Signal Summary

20191107
Short 1 RTY 1608.7, -1.4
Short 1 NQ 8255.0, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 8259.0, 8260.0, +6.0, +7.75
Short 2 YM 27660, 27661, +20, +7
Short 1 NQ 8270.0, -0.5
Total YM +27
Total NQ +11.0
Total RTY -1.4

Wed Nov 6 Trade Signal Summary

20191106
Short 1 NQ 8199.0, +5.0
Short 1 NQ 8200.0, -2.25
Short 1 NQ 8201.5, -0.0
Long 1 YM 27407, -2
Long 1 NQ 8202.0, +5.0
Long 1 RTY 1592.5, +4.2
Long 1 NQ 8180.0, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 8181.75, +5.0
Total YM -2
Total NQ +11.75
Total RTY +4.2

Tues Nov 5 Trade Signals and Journal

20191105
Short 1 RTY 1606.0, +3.0
Long 1 RTY 1603.4, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 8226.25, -2.25
Short 1 NQ 8233.5, +11.5
Long 1 RTY 1606.2, -0.0
Long 1 RTY 1603.4, +2.0
Total NQ +9.25
Total RTY +7.0

Fading a news release that spikes into an exhaustion signals is old stuff to an old timer, like me. I've been doing it for 40 years, and in my earliest days, watched floor traders in the S&P and Swiss Franc pits eat such supposedly significant news releases like it was so much breakfast food. Newer traders like to see the news, like to know the expectations, like to wait til the actual economic report is published on their favorite online econ news site. Too late. It's over by then. I only bother with one aspect: Knowing what time the econ report is scheduled. Thereafter, its all in the charts. If a buy or sell signal that is comprised from the three main, disparate technical elements key to any Trade Entry Model appear some 5 to 10 minutes at least before the news. I pre-position for it. If price fails to give me enough cushion by the time the scheduled release is at hand, I dump it. "No cushion, no keep" is a phrase I often type into the chat room in such positions. A cushion can also come from exiting a part of a multi-contract position. But it's amazing how such signals often presage the actual direction of the news. Like it just 'knows'.... But of course, it doesn't. No matter how many times you hear it otherwise said in chat rooms to the contrary, the news is just not leaked to a sufficient size of market participants to actually move the markets.

Today, when the 10am ET econ reports came out, the response was immediately positive. I made the call to short the NQ IF the news was positive, not afterwards because the news somehow was insufficiently positive to maintain some bull advance. After that, it was simply getting the technical aspect of that news spike to appear. (One was a Serial Sequent fractal algo number, which only appeared in tne NQ because it was the only one set to do so). And the other was the take-out of a Y-High marked clearly on the Pivot-Exhaustion Grid for the NT Day-0nly contract.

I got in the first contract attempting to fade this news too soon, because I thought it was toast. So had to re-enter higher up after it actually accomplished that Grid take-out number. I got anxious about missing the trade... I do that... I suffer for it a bit. But I seldom suffer for my stp-outs. I don't use big stops, and consider a stp-out as simply part of the game. But I do suffer for early exits. And far worse than being stp'd out was the stupidity I felt for taking only 11 points profit for that NQ short in what turned out to be a 40 point excursion... duh.

I get in too early, I get out too early, I get out too late, I get in too often. In short, I make all the mistakes any trader makes, and I make them everyday. ...and yet, on most trading days (excluding a couple last week), I get a reasonable 1st Frame trading goal.

Trading is not a predictive process. It's an 'if this, then that' decision tree. Be ready for the signals when they appear. Act on them without hesitation.....or patiently await the signal's full fruition. Those signals appear quickly, and seldom last long. Trade from signal confirmation instead of price confirmation. That will separate you from the crowd, and allow you to use smaller stops. cya manana....


Mon Nov 4 Trade Signal Summary

20191104
Short 1 NQ 8225.5, -0.5
Short 2 YM 27428, 27428, -7, -7
Short 1 NQ 8230.0, 8231.0, -2.25, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 8232.25, 8232.25, +5.0, +11.5
Short 2 YM 27446, 27446, +15, +30
Short 1 YM 27429, -2
Long 1 NQ 8217.0, -2.25
Long 1 NQ 8215.0, +5.5
Short 1 YM 24417, -3
Short 1 RTY 1597.5, -0.0
Short 1 RTY 1598.0, -0.2
Short 1 NQ 8117.5, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 8122.5, 8121.75, +2.0, +12.25
Short 1 YM 24434, +20
Total YM +46
Total NQ +26.75
Total RTY -0.2

Fri Nov 1 Trade Signals and Journal

20191101
Long 1 YM 27117, +20
Short 1 NQ 8132.5, -2.0
Short 2 RTY 1579.1, 1579.5, -0.0, -0.1
Short 1 YM 27163, +41
Short 1 YM 27211, -2
Short 2 NQ 8161.0, 8160.25, +3.0, -0.25
Short 1 RTY 1583.8, -0.2
Short 1 RTY 1584.3, -0.3
Short 1 YM 27230, -2
Short 1 RTY 1585.1, -0.3,
Short 1 RTY 1586.3, -0.1
Short 1 RTY 1586.4, -0.2
Short 2 RTY 1587.0, 1587.0, -0.1, -0.1
Total YM +57
Total NQ +0.75
Total RTY -1.4

Always a tester of a day starting out in the penalty box of the Simulator. And even though I was able to score a couple winners in YM to get me out, I still wasn't able to find a good trend turn or pullback in the 1st Frame... Let's light a fresh candle next week... a good weekend to all...