Tues Nov 26 Trades

Long 2 YM 15071, 15069, -7, +7
Long 1 TF 1125.1, +1.5
Long 1 YM 15069 +13
Short 1 TF 1125.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1125.2, +1.1
Short 2 TF 1128.1, 1128.2, -0.2, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1128.5, 1128.4, +0.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1128.3, 1028.4, -0.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1129.2, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1129.7, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1130.2, 1130.2, -0.1, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1131.1, 1131.2, +1.2, +0.7
Total YM +13
Total TF +2.5

Mon Nov 25 Trades & Journal

Long 2 YM 15038, 15038, +10, +16
Short 1 TF 1125.8, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1123.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1123.2, 1122.6, -0.0, +1.2
Short 1 YM 15061, -6
Short 2 TF 1124.1, 1124.0, -05, -0.6
Short 2 TF 11024.6, 1124.5, +1.0, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1124.4, 1124.6, -0.6, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1125.3, 1125.2, +0.5, +1.0
Total YM +20
Total TF +4.3

Seems like pre-holiday type action has already set in for the week, with lots of chop and big divergences. Stuck to the plan pretty well, but found my entries too early several times. As the 1st frame came to an end, and I felt relieved as a means to excuse myself from trading this kind of action, I was amused to see far better signals suddenly show up as the Midday frame found its footing. Yang-Yin. Will trade again tomorrow, but thereafter no more trades this week. Stay focused....

Fri Nov 22 Trades & Journal

Long 2 NQ 3407.5, 3407.75, +3.50, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1119.0, -0.4
Short 2 YM 15979, 15980, +12, +20
Long 1 TF 1116.7, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1121.2, +0.6
Total NQ +4.5
Total YM +32
Total TF +1.9

Unlike yesterday, today's ORB coil came with no pre Philly Fed complication, so I have even less excuse for not taking it as a breakout. Earlier the TF had been the heavier of all contracts, but at this bull breakout level, was suddenly all alone. All the more so should I have been ready to take the breakout, as it had all the right filters: a Pre-Breakout Pause, the 10:30am Trend Check base, and contract Leadership Shift. Put on your blinders. You can't outguess the market, nor out smart it. The trades have qualifying elements. Those elements either appear at the right edge of your video screen, or the do not. Intuition and fear are not allowed. Take the trades, take the consequences. If the trepidation you feel from taking the trade is caused by a legitimate technical aspect, then that aspect should be a filter to the trade every time. Otherwise, ignore it. Stay disciplined.

Thurs Nov 21 Trades & Journal

Short 1 TF 1105.4, +1.1
Short 2 NQ 3393.0, 3392.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1110.0, -0.6
Short 2 YM 15945, 15946, +7, +5
Short 1 TF 1111.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1112.0, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1112.6, +1.0
Total NQ +4.0
Total YM +12
Total TF +3.0

Persistent Trend Day Up signals began with early action, but I failed to capitalize on the TF bull breakout as the Philly Fed approached. That trade was in my Trade Plan, and as I such I violated the plan by not taking it. Instead, I shorted the news with the NQ short, which was also in the plan, and oddly, could have accomplished both with profits. But what I feel best about today was a breakout in TF that I took at the first inflection level, a good deal after the 10:00am news was out. And although I only held the trade for a 1 pt profit, at least broke the ice a bit in my attempts to take breakouts when the filters are aligned. Keep practicing. Habits are difficult to break, and even more difficult to form.

Wed Nov 20 Trades & Journal

Long 2 YM 15935 15934, +7, -7
Long 2 NQ 3385.5, 3385.0, -0.0, +2.0
Long 1 YM 15928, +15
Long 2 TF 1100.3, 1099.8, -1.4., -0.7
Long 2 TF 1098.6, 1098.6, +1.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3380.75, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1104.3, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15981, 15979, +11, +7
Long 1 NQ 3389.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 3384.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3382.0, 3382.0, +3.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 3382.50, 3382.50, +3.0, +3.0
PM trades
Long 1 YM 15928, +20
Total YM +53
Total NQ +16.0
Total TF +0.4

It was important for the day's profits to have stepped back in at more than one buy signal when the volatility blew out my stp's. That's because the buy signals were still there, but at deeper excursion depths in both the initial TF longs and the subsequent NQ longs after those stp-outs. I seldom have trouble doing this, but is worth reminding me to stay with the signal even though the volatility can extend the waves. The biggest miss of the day came with an inflection buy out, and as usual, I balked and was left standing flat as the TF exploded towards earlier identified bull targets. Study the inflections. Note the momentum. Register whether the infection comes as a 1st or 2nd trend direction, and take the trade if these filters are in place. With the right filters, a breakout can be even more rewarding than a pullback opportunity. Review more charts over the weekend, and make further settlements on breakout filters for the Trade Plan. Then, follow the Plan.

FOMC minutes always a draw for those seeking volatility. Saw no pre-news setups as the clock count down arrived inbetwixt a trading range for the day. But the bearish reaction to the news did beget several buy signals, one of which I was bold enough to take in the YM, but no other. I was looking for a decent TF signal, as did not fare much better than b/e there this morning in the 1st Frame. A frame without TF profits is like a day without sunshine. But the only clear TF trade in the PM was a breakdown trade, which in retrospect, would have required a full sized stp-loss in order to survive the whiplash after the trigger entry level. But no shame in trading the NQ and/or the YM. Go where the signals appear. Follow the Trade Plan. Stay disciplined.

Tues Nov 19 Trades & Journal

Long 2 TF 1107.7, 1101.4, +1.2, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1107.8, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3395.0, 3395.25, -2.0, -2.25
Short 2 TF 1110.1, 1110.1, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 NQ 3399.25, 3395.25, +3.0, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 3395.25, +2.5
Long 1 TF 1108.0, +2.2
Long 2 NQ 3391.25, 3391.5, +2.0, +5.0
PM Trades
Long 2 TF 1097.7, 1097.1, -0.0, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1096.7, +0.9
Total NQ +7.75
Total TF +8.0

Showed the right patience for the initial long as price did eventually break below the Globex low and as per usual, hooked the breakdown shorts for a nice reversal. However, I lost patience with it initially and was too easily misled by how it lagged the YM and NQ on their more immediate strength. The TF can lag too, and a bit more patience at this turn would have caught a better piece of the initial 8 pt reversal excursion. The additional bull breakouts at the top by the TF were all faux, but cannot point to the actual filter that kept me out of them, although can claim that the YM and ES contracts did the initial leadership. I still take few breakouts, and on some days come away quite relieved that I'm so picky with them, but on others, resolve to continue refining the filters that can lead to more exacting breakout trade entry rules. Keep studying this subject. Eventually the haze will clear. Stay disciplined with the plan aspects are already well defined.

The market teaches us market truth each day, if we will only see it, and thereby, see through its various disguises that otherwise keep the majority of traders from better success. Am reminded of the famous Heraclitus remark "Nature loves to hide." All you have to do is study the Time Markers yesterday and today and you'll discover one of its most important secrets, and a critical ingredient to any Technical Entry Model. Stay disciplined.

Mon Nov 18 Trades & Journal

Long 1 TF 1118.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1117.2, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1114.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1112.2, 1112.1, -0.5, +.7
Long 2 TF 1111.8, 1111.2, -0.0, +1.3
Short 2 YM 15974, 15978, +7, +10
Short 2 TF 1115.1, 1116.0, -0.2, +1.4
Short 2 YM 15976, 15976, +5, -5
Short 2 TF 1116.6, 1116.6, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 3419.0, 3419.25, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1118.4, 1118.4, +0.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1119.1, 1119.2, +1.9, +0.7
Total YM 17
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +5.7

Did not quite have that 'calm in the storm' attitude today that is so needed for the best trade entries. As a result
hurried too many and got in early in the right places, exited a bit early in the wrong places.... but did ok over all. I did duck on breakout in my trade plan. Just couldn't get my fingers to place the order. I must believe better in the trade plan on breakouts, and take my chances on entry models that have the right ingredients.

Fri Nov 15 Trades & Journal

Long 1 TF 1107.8, +1.0
Total TF +1.0

Don't even bother trying to trade when you're not well. A head cold is minor thing for some occupations, but anything that requires sharp concentration, like operating heavy machinery, is best left till your head is clear. Have a good weekend.

Thurs Nov 14 Trades & Journal

Long 1 TF 1109.9, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1108.4, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1106.7, 1106.9, +0.7, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1106.6, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1105.2, 1105.3, -0.0, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1104.8, 1104.8, 1104.9, +1.4, +1.6, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1103.3, +0.1
Long 1 TF 1104.1, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1103.1, 1102.7, +3.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1104.6, +2.0
Total TF +8.4

Remarkable divergence, and have to admit that it affected me to overconfidence and early entries on the way down. I even took several trades that were outside the model for a Test-n-Reject 1st Frame following on the heals of a Persistent Trend Day Up the day before. And although I used 1 lots and tight stp's for those out-of-model long entries, letting them into my head at that point was a little like letting in the air of intuition and tape reading. This is NOT what you want to do, and leads to being cocky, and eventually, if not checked, the catastrophic habit of assuming you know which way the market is supposed to go. You don't. And at those moments where you most feel right, the market is all the more likely to prove you otherwise. Whatever it is you think you see and is wiser than the current price action of the market itself is being seen by lots of other traders, all probably better at their craft than you. And that's precisely why you're all probably just going to be stopped out. The market is bigger than all that, and the more that see how much the market must be wrong in its own self assessment, the more subsequent liquidation and impulse is most likely about to follow as those thinking they're 'in-the-know' are forced to puke back their positions in humble acknowledgement that 'everybody' is always wrong. Stick with your plan. It doesn't matter if you miss a few trades. Most likely, a hurried entry will just be a stop-out, and will put you into a hole that you'll have to dig out of when the true and completed Trade Entry Models finally make their destined appearance anyway. Stay disciplined.

Thurs Nov 13 Trades & Summary

Short 2 NQ 3350.25, 3350.75, -1.25, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1097.1, 1097.1, +0.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1098.8, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3358.25, 3358.0, +2.0, +4.25
Short 2 NQ 3358.25, 3358.5, +2.0, +3.0
Short 3 NQ 3365.25, 3365.5, 3366.0, +2.0, -0.5, +1.5
Long 2 NQ 3361.75, 3361.25, +1.0, +1.5
Total NQ +14
Total TF +2.0

When action gets difficult in your favorite trading vehicle, like the mini Russell contract, there is no shame to move your model entries to another, like the YM or NQ. Sometimes, the setups just aren't there, or they are, and price action is intolerant of your stps and entries. Whatever the reason, your capital is always more important than forcing a trade model into something that doesn't really correspond on the screen. Accept the outcome. The market is its own authority on what works and what doesn't. Your job is to respond to the market. It cannot be controlled. But you can control yourself. Stay disciplined.

Wed Nov 12 Trades & Journal

Long 2 YM 15710, 15711, +7, +11
Short 2 TF 1098.5, 1098.6, +1.2, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1096.8, +1.6
Short 1 NQ 3364.25, +2.0
Total NQ +2.0
Total YM +18
Total TF +3.5

Pretty much stuck to plan today, and can't really fault any failures to take breakouts,
as price remained well contained in our favorite the TF for the 1st Frame action. Stay disciplined.

Mon Nov 11 Trades & Journal

Short 2 TF 1095.6, 1096.0, +3.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1096.3, -0.3
Short 2 YM 15724, 15728, -6, -3
Short 2 NQ 3362.25, 3362.24, -1.25, -1.25
Short 2 TF 1099.9, 1099.7, +1.3, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1097.4, 1097.3, +1.2, +0.5
Long 2 NQ 3355.75, 3355.50, -1.0, -0.75
Long 1 TF 1096.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1096.1, 1095.9, -0.5, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1095.2, -0.6
Long 2 TF 1094.5, 1094.4, +1.0, +0.9
Long 1 TF 1094.4, +1.0
Total YM -9
Total NQ -4.25
Total TF +8.0

If you were just watching my initial trades within those early TF whipsaws, it might not look like there was any sense to it. But every trade was part of an Entry Model. In fact, I missed two of the best ones today, and still did well. Volatility is the key. The slow bull or bear grinds into Persistent Trends are murder. You need swings to make profits in index futures, otherwise, you may as well be trading wheat. Stay focused. When the entry model appears at the right edge of your video screen, no thinking allowed. Take the trade. Take the consequences. If the model does not work far more often than it fails, it has no business as part of your Trade Plan anyway.

Fri Nov 8 Trades & Jounal

Short 2 TF 1081.9, 1082.9, -1.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1086.5, +1.0, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1083.1, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1086.8, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1087.9, 1088.2, -0.5, +0.7
Short 2 YM 15629, 15630, +16, +7
Short 2 NQ 3349.5, 3349.5, -0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1090.9, +1.2
Total YM +23
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +2.4

Yesterday's Persistent Trend Day Down models were followed immediately by a Persistent Trend Day Up today. This has been just the same Day Model Sequence this bull has demonstrated so many times these many months, and should come as no surprise. Except that I was no more prepared to take the breakout signals in TF on the way up as I was yesterday on the way down. Pullback buy opps in the TF did present themselves, however, and I was quick to respond to those when they appeared. But the best one shortly after the opening went unfilled, and was left on the sidelines for the big initial explosion. Consider the elements to that initial pullback buy opp. They have been seen so many times before. The TF alerted the market to the whole subsequent explosion in those earliest minutes. Write down its elements. Rehearse their reappearance. Be ready for the trade. You must be ready to strike quickly when the model appears, and consider that if the trend has force and is truly explosive, it will fall short of pullback depth expectations, and offer considerable surprise and extension to the inflection breakouts. Be brave at the inflections that fit the trade model filter restrictions. Avoid all others. ...and a good weekend to all.

Thur Nov 7 Trades & Journal

Short 3 TF 1101.9, 1102.4, 1102.5, 1102.5, +0.1, +0.5, -0.5, -0.7
Short 2 YM 15747, 15747, +7, +14
Long 2 NQ 3368.25, 3368.25, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 3368.75, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1096.1, 1095.7, -1.0, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1094.6, 1094.0, -1.0, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1091.8, 1091.8, 1091.6, -0.7, -0.7, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1091.0, 1091.0, 1091.0, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1088.3, 1088.8, +2.0, +1.5
Long 2 NQ 3340.25, 3340.75, +5.25, +2.0
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1087.1, 1087.5, -0.8, +0.7
Short 2 YM 15671, 15672, -6, -6
Short 2 TF 1089.9, 1090.2, 1090.2, -1.0, -0.6, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1090.7, 1090.7, +1.5, +0.8
Long 2 TF 1080.9, 1081.9, -0.9, +0.7
Long 2 NQ 3323.75, 3324.75, +5.0, +1.75
Long 2 TF 1078.9, 1079.0, +0.7, +1.4
Total YM +9
Total NQ +17.50
Total TF -0.3

Today, whipsaw volatility kept me treading water. But I took my eye off a critical breakdown level from the larger frame when I failed to find an adequate trigger to enter on shorts in the TF. Chose the NQ instead and got whipped out. Once out of sync, it is always mentally harder to get back in when taking immediate recovery trades. Stepping back from it all, even at the risk of missing the next entry signal, would have been the wiser move this morning. And the Midday Frame trades near the Noon hour fared no better, as the extra excursion there made me play catch-up to early entries and stp-outs too. But I love days like this. The opportunity the market offers is so tremendous. We have to be thankful for all that it brings us, and stay determined to be on our game whenever we approach it with trades. Stay disciplined. Stay calm.

PM Addendum
Moth to the flame, as I couldn't resist the volatility. Only fared moderately better with late PM trades, givijng up on them too soon as is typical when playing catch-up to a losing day. Did manage to crawl back into positive territory after a pretty dismal morning. Since I see each day as a goal of getting positive and staying positive, I don't apologize for taking profits too soon when seeking the return to health for the day. But nonetheless, the best trade in the afternoon I failed to take altogether when I finally got positive, and the earlier short, which required 3 attempts total, was exited so far before it was ripe as to be embarrassing. When the dust settles on this day, will take the time to review it in detail over the weekend, as the best source of self-improvement is always in one's own trades. Stay focused. Be objective in self criticisms. The market is always bigger than you, and you are forever a student of the market.

Wed Nov 6 Trades & Journal

Short 3 TF 1107.6, 1107.8, 1108.3, +1.3, +0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1101.2, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1099.5, +1.3
Long 2 NQ 3377.0, 3370.0, -0.0, -2.25
Long 1 TF 1095.0, +1.3
Total NQ -2.25
Total TF +4.4

Sometimes your Trade Plan will fail you. Although the TF sell signals came in near the highs, and I was able to enter cleanly, further breakdown levels were filtered out by the plan when the momentum indicator warned of over extension.... and yet, it broke right an inflection point for the cleanest breakdown of the morning, without me. I'll keep an eye on this in order to gauge what other considerations might be made for the momentum indicator, but generally as a tool, it has kept me out of far more trouble and into far more clearer turns than kept me out of deeper excursions. Also, the strong bull divergence today by the ES and YM, which I did recognize as a distraction to the TF bear leadership, nonetheless, hurried my exit on the first TF position on caution that the big caps might yet keep the TF at least retesting the HOD (High-of-Day). There's never any use in castigating oneself over 'should have known better's or 'if only I hadn't's. Your plan is always imperfect. And your plan can always be improved. Trust in your plan if it works far more often than it fails. But be mindful of insights that might improve it, if you've seen those technical aspects along the way... a few thousand times....

Tues Nov 5 Trades & Summary

Long 2 NQ 3368.0, 3368, +1.5, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1098.4, 1098.5, -0.5, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1098.0, 1097.9, +1.5, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1097.1, 1096.6, 1096.4, -1.4, +0.7, -0.7,
Long 2 TF 1096.3, 1096.1, -0.7, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1095.9, 1095.9, 1096.0, +0.7, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1094.01, 1094.01, +1.7, +4.0
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +5.1

Was determined again to take the breakouts, when they fulfilled the Trade Plan requirements and were not filtered out by caveats. Today, nearly missed a short on break on the way down because I failed to set up my platform for a stp-n-rev trigger. After it broke, it returned for a moment back up to the breakdown level, which means I only caught that short by luck, as many breakdowns do not have initial counter trend reactions, and instead, just run away. As it was, had I used the two-contract breakout strategy on stp-n-rev's I had intended, I would have exited one with +0.4 TF, and been stop-d out the second on the initial counter-break reaction at -0.4 TF, net nothing. As it was, since I entered on a pullback after the breakdown, I got a better fill than the breakdown itself, and was in with a pullback auto-strategy, which exited the first of two contracts at the better +0.7, and left the second open for some play. If this was the more normal occurrence to breakouts, it would beg the question as to whether breakouts are generally better taken not on the breakout itself with a stop-entry order, but on a pullback into the pre-breakdown pause pattern that spawned it. Breakouts are tricky, and again this throws me back into some research.

The best part of my trading today, however, was not the usual absence of my balking at a Trade Plan breakout play, but the persistence I showed when the final buy signal came in the TF near the Low of Day. With a support number at 1094.0, I called entry at 94.01 into a strong Serial Sequent structure buy signal. I remember some years ago when pulling such a trigger against all the usual beginner Do-Not-Do rules, such as, 'never buy a new low', would have kept me out of that trade. But with the True Trend Momentum Indicator actually turning up while the market was making that new low, and a significant exhaustion level being penetrated for the necessary finishing confluence, I was able to enter that order without much emotion at all, and could see to call off the initial targets for better profits than the auto-exits would have on the way up.

And finally, another good night's sleep, with about an hour earlier to bed than usual, lent a distinct background to the mental ease with which I seemed to approach trading today. That odd paradox of patience and persistence seemed to be right at my beckoning when needed. Get your needed rest. Stay focused. Follow your Trade Plan. If your plan is not working, go back to the simulator until it does, or until you've found a Trade Plan that actually works far more often than it fails. You're lost without it.

Mon Nov 4 Trades & Journal

Long 2 TF 1098.1, 1098.1, +0.4, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 3375.5, 3375.75, +1.5, -1.5
Long 1 YM 15585, -5
Long 2 TF 1096.3, 1096.1, -0.4, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1095.3, 1095.1, +1.7, +0.5
Long 1 ES 1557.75, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3374.75, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1099.8, 1099.9, -0.4, -0.3
Short 3 TF 1100.3, 1100.3, 1100.2, +0.5, -0.2, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1100.6, +1.1
Short 2 TF 1102.3, 1102.2, +0.4, +1.3
Long 2 YM 15526, 15525, +19, +7
Long 1 TF 1099.1, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1098.3, +1.6
Total NQ -1.5
Total ES +1.0
Total YM +21
Total TF +6.2

Significant divergence, as seen today, between the usual leader TF and say the lagging ES or YM, can be challenging. But was able to keep fairly cool head today and let the signals develop separately for decent trades. Spent a good deal of time going over the Trade Plan rules for breakouts this weekend, and found myself more easily in tune with buying that TF breakout late in its bullish 1st hour spike, just by sticking to the rules regardless of the apprehensions associated with it at the time. Furthermore, was also able thereafter to flip the switch and short the TF when the top signal came in, thus catching a piece of the reversal back down. Also, can't eliminate the Fall-back aspect of daylight savings time, as with that extra hour of sleep, seemed especially well rested this morning. Let that be a hint worthy of repetition. ....

Fri Nov 1 Trades

Short 1 TF 1098.7, -0.6
Short 2 ES 1758.0, 1758.0, +1.0, -0.25
Short 1 ES 1758.25, -0.75
Short 2 YM 15564, 15565, +10, +6
Long 1 TF 1096.2, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1096.0, +1.4
Long 2 TF 1097.6, 1097.2, -0.8, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1092.5, 1092.9, +1.5, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1092.3, 1092.1, +0.5, +0.7
Total ES -0.0
Total YM +16
Total TF +2.6