Wed Aug 31 Trades & Journal

20160831
Long 1 TF 1243.6, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 4768.75, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1243.4, -0.2
Short 2 NQ 4775.0, 4775.0, +1.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1241.6, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1241.7, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1241.2, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1238.6, 1238.6, -0.8, -0.8
Long 2 TF 1234.7, 1235.1, +1.0, +1.0d
Long 2 TF 1232.6, 1232.7, +0.7, +1.4
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +0.7

Breakouts are tricky. Even when you can eye the trend failure and deterioration, picking the wrong level too early means discouraging stop-outs. Then, just when you've stepped back to consider things more clearly, that breakout comes with alarming speed, and leaves you speechless on the sidelines... or so at least it did to me today. What do you have to overcome on days like this to take a stop-and-reverse short entry...? You have to acknowledge that the clean breakout trigger has now appeared already 7 pts down into the frame, and just after taking out a daily low, and closing a gap yet unclosed for several days. And remember, the best breakouts always come right at potential fade level support/resistance, making the duplicity of an Inflection all the more daunting. But consider this: the average breakout signal comes just half way already from where the market started the trend, to where it will eventually go ....and, to the extent the breakout seems unfeasible, incomprehensible and inconceivable as to its potential success, is the extent to which almost no one has seen it coming. Remember the Valhalla First Corollary to the Douglas Premise: "....that most of the opportunity that is missed in the market is missed by traders who were unable to concede that the market would go the expected distance, but in the opposite direction to which they were prejudiced."

Tues Aug 30 Trade Summary

20160830
Long 1 TF 1244.6, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1246.8, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1247.8, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1245.5, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1245.6, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1244.0, 1243.6, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1243.4, +1.1
Total TF +6.5

Mon Aug 29 Trade Summary

20160829
Short 2 TF 1242.5, 1242.5, -0.0, -0.0
Short 2 NQ 4797.5, 4797.5, +3.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1240.9, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1243.6, +1.1
Short 1 NQ 4791.75, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1242.4, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1241.7, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1241.1, +0.8
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +3.5

Fri Aug 26 Trades & Journal

20160826
Short 1 NQ 4789.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4795.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 4793.5, 4793.5, -0.0, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 4742.5, -1.0
Long 2 NQ 4780.0, 4780.0, +2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 4776.0, 4776.0, +2.0, +8.0
Short 1 TF 1246.5, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1248.8, 1248.8, +0.7, -0.0
Short 3 TF 1249.4, 1249.2, 1249.4, -0.5, -0.0, -0.5
Long 1 YM 18573, -2
Long 2 TF 1246.2, 1246.2, +0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1245.1, 1244.4, -0.0, +2.0
Total YM -2
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +0.1


The news can cause havoc in the market place, especially when a Fed Chairman is scheduled in advance to speak. But it can also create tremendous opportunities. There are often entry models that appear pre-news on which to ride the wave of apparent panic as the speech is made public, and then again after the news is out, there are often bad news buys or good news short opportunities to fade. Today offered both a pre-news short entry and a bad news buy opp, but my trading did not well capitalize on either. The pre-news setup was a stop-n-reverse into a short. I choose the NQ, but it was choppy, so I lost faith. The YM was clean a minute or so later, but I was 'skunked' and just watched as the plunge took place without me. Still focused on the NQ, I used it for the bad news buy opp, but my default exit limit, set at +8.0pts was hit so quickly that the best of the excursion went on without me. The TF would have been an excellent choice, but with my focus still caught up in trying to 'get even' with earlier NQ stop-outs, I missed the TF, and was left to trying to find the top to fade into the ensuing rally--unsuccessfully. Thus a day of huge excursions--most of which my Trade Plan did accommodate--was wasted. Think ahead. What models could appear on a news climax? Which contract do you want to be in? What are its best climax levels from the Pivot/Exhaustion Grid. Be calm. Be ready. Act when the model appears. That is what you came for.

Thur Aug 25 Trade Summary

20160825
Short 1 NQ 4775.75, -3.0
Long 1 TF 1235.6, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1235.6, 1235.1, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 NQ 4777.5, -3.0
Short 1 TF 1238.0, -0.4
Short 2 YM 18464, 18464, -0, -0
Short 2 TF 1239.90, 1239.9, +0.7, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1238.3, +1.1
Long 1 TF 1237.9, +1.2
Total NQ -6.0
Total TF +6.3

Wed Aug 24 Trades & Journal

20160824
Short 1 TF 1245.3, -0.2
Long 1 NQ 4816.50, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 4812.25, +2.0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1245.1, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1244.5, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1246.2, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1246.4, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1246.6, -0.5
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF -1.6

Chop and stutterstep are the antithesis to trend and turn. Two days of it in a row can be frustrating ...but some days just better to trade than others. Nothing to do but admit it. Keep the losses small. As the turn begins to progress after a Trade Plan Model Entry, note the possible bar patterns that could act as pre-breakout setups back in the direction against the reversal entry, and trail your stops to those. As the 2nd trend took place, I went with a stp-n-rev at one such pre-break pause, but on a day like today, breakouts just fraught with failure. Monday taught me to try anyway, once a 2nd trend got in place, as Monday was a breakout player's dream. Those days always make your mouth water, and draw you back into study. What are the best qualifying attributes of clean, impulsive breakouts..? I'm still studying. A day characterized by overall chop and stutterstep is certainly no pre-qualifier.

Tues Aug 23 Trade Summary

20160823
Short 1 NQ 4832.5, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 4832.5, -1.75
Short 2 TF 1248.2, 1248.2, +0.7, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1249.0, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1248.9, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1248.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1248.0, +1.0
Long 1 NQ 4831.0, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 4827.75, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 4827.75, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1248.0, 1248.1, +0.7, -0.5
Total NQ -3.75
Total TF +1.6

Mon Aug 22 Trade Summary

20160822
Short 1 TF 1231.4, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 4801.5, +5.0
Short 1 YM 18472, -1
Short 1 YM 18472, +7
Short 1 TF 1233.1, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1234.5, 1234.8, -0.6, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1236.2, 1236.2, -0.7, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1237.5, 1237.5, 1237.5, +1.0, +1.2, -0.2
Short 3 TF 1237.7, 1237.7, 1237.7, -0.0, -0.2, -1.4
Long 1 NQ 4889.25, -1.0
Long 1 YM 18483, -1
Long 2 TF 1231.3, 1231.5, +0.7, -0.8
Long 2 NQ 4793.0, 4792.0, +3.0, +2.0
Total YM +5
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF -1.0

Fri Aug 19 Trade Summary

20160819
Long 1 NQ 4775.5, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1231.4, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1232.0, +1.9
Short 1 TF 1236.2, +1.0
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +4.1

Thur Aug 18 Trade Summary

20160818
Short 1 NQ 4808.5, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1229.5, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1229.1, -0.1
Short 1 NQ 4805.25, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 4810.5, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1234.0, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1233.6, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 4813.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1234.9, +1.2
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +3.0

Wed Aug 17 Trade Summary

20160817
Long 1 YM 18477, -0
Short 1 TF 1226.0, +1.3
Long 2 YM 18468, 18468, -5, -5
Long 2 TF 1223.0, 1223.0, +1.0, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1225.5, 1225.6, +1.2, +0.3
Total YM -10
Total TF +4.8

Tues Aug 16 Trade Summary

20160816
Short 1 TF 1235.6, +1.8
Short 1 TF 1234.6, +0.9
Short 1 TF 1235.8, +0.2
Short 1 TF 1235.8, +0.2
Short 1 TF 1236.6, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1233.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1232.8, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1232.6, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1231.2, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1231.1, +0.8
Total TF +4.9

Mon Aug 15 Trades and Journal

20160815
Short 2 YM 18607, 18606, +7, +6
Short 2 TF 1237.5, 1237.5, +0.7, +1.2
Short 2 TF 1238.9, 1239.0, -0.5, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1239.4, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1240.2, 1240.2, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1240.3, +1.1
Total YM +13
Total TF +3.4

Persistent Trend Patterns often offer scant opportunities. Today, when an inflection breakout opportunity in the first trend appeared, I felt drawn to take it, even though the momentum had peaked and 1st trend breakouts are fraught with failure. On Friday, in contrast, a pre-breakout pause pattern was ideal for a breakout play, and although I initially called it for the room, I cancelled it out before it triggered, also on an emotional basis, but to the negative side. Today's breakout was choppy and I got stopped out quickly. Friday's which I didn't take, was clean and very profitable for those who kept their orders in place. ...and then, with these two trading days back-to-back, both featuring attempts by me to take breakouts, a light bulb went off. It's the presence--or absence, I should say--of opportunity in the marketplace that is driving me to either take breakouts better filtered out, or balk at breakouts better qualified to take that is driving my execution. On Persistent Trend Days, there is scant opportunity to engage with the trend....thus I feel compelled to participate in poorly qualified break-out models simply to have something to trade. The calm, cold, unprejudiced check list of break-out filters and qualifiers goes out the window on need to have something to trade. ...Sometimes, a harder thing than the market to understand is yourself. Now....let's see if I can take this insight into some level of behavior modification in the days to come that will improve my poor participation in the breakouts that work versus those that don't.

Fri Aug 12 Trade Summary

20160812
Short 1 YM 18534, -3
Short 1 TF 1227.6, -0.3
Short 1 YM 18553, +20
Long 1 TF 1226.6, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1230.3, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1230.3, +0.5
Total YM +17
Total TF +1.6

Thur Aug 11 Trade Summary

20160811
Long 1 TF 1226.4, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1224.1, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1223.6, +1.5
Total TF +4.0

Wed Aug 10 Trades & Journal

20160810
Short 1 NQ 4793.0, +5.0
Short 1 YM 18500, +20
Long 1 TF 1224.9, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1224.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 4791.25, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1228.0, 1228.1, -0.0, +1.4
Total YM +20
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +0.5

Breakouts can be tricky. Picking the ones that will break clean into impulse is, of course, the goal. That aim acknowledges that most do not break clean, and in fact, simply act as hooks for reversals into the opposing trend. It's those very hooks that I depend on most of the time in order to capture fills at extreme price levels where exhaustion is likely. But many of these same supposed exhaustion levels are potential inflections. And if those appear with the right set of qualifiers and filters, a successful breakout can be I.D'd. Today, I got hooked, and although it didn't cost that much, being filled on a short at the Low-of-Day in the early frame is always a humbling experience. Nothing in the market makes you look more stupid.....

Tues Aug 9 Trade Summary

20160809
Short 1 TF 1229.8, +1.1
Long 1 TF 1227.5, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1231.9, +0.7
Total TF +3.1

Mon Aug 8 Trade Summary

20160808
Short 1 TF 1233.6, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 4788.5, +7.0
Short 1 TF 1233.8, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1230.9, +1.0
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +4.0

Fri Aug 5 Trades & Summary

20160805
Short 2 NQ 4779.5, 4778.75, -2.5, +2.0
Short 1 ES 2173.25, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1222.7, 1222.7, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1224.9, 1224.9, -0.2, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 4790.25, 4790.25, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 4792.75, 4792.75 +2.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1226.3, 1226.3, +1.5, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 4790.0, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 4794.25, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1228.3, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1228.6, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1229.6, -0.1
Total ES -1.5
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF +1.0

Today I succumbed to a common mental block and missed good entry opportunities in-trend. "The market is too high to buy". The market is NEVER too high to buy...at least as an intraday futures trader. Both the NQ and TF gave the 3 Bar Opening Range patterns that although a long way up from yesterday's close, proceeded to produce huge gains. This left me trying to fade counter trend tops for nickels, while awaiting deeper pullbacks to buy. But to add to the errors, I balked successively at the YM, then ES and then again NQ pullbacks for exactly the same reason. It was still just too high to buy. Except all those too went on up for further gains. ...and what's the 'swing trigger' that will free my head from this block, you ask? How about "the risk I fear is mostly that of the embarrassment". And indeed, it is mostly embarrassment that we face at the obvious stupidity of attempting to buy so high up a gap-up opening. Instead, consider that the financial risk of a default stop-loss for buying a qualified Trend Entry Model this high up at the Open to be no more than what is faced higher up at an even bigger price extension when an entry model of the same caliber appears but for shorting appears. Take the risk. Buy high, should the entry model appear for doing so, and after signs of Persistence as price proceeds, buy again on pullbacks that keep you in-trend on Persistent Trend Day models. There simply is no 'too high' to buy.

Thur Aug 4 Trade Summary

20160804
Short 1 NQ 4732.25, -3.0
Long 1 TF 1212.0, -1.4
Long 1 TF 1210.3, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1208.7, 1208.5, +2.0, +1.0
Long 1 NQ 4715.5, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1213.4, -0.5
Short 1 ES 2156.75, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 4724.75, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1213.0, -0.1
Short 2 TF 1213.1, 1213.4, +0.5, -0.8
Short 1 ES 2158.25, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1214.5, 1214.5, +0.7, +1.5
Short 1 ES 2160.0, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1213.3, -0.0
Total ES -0.25
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +2.9

Wed Aug 3 Trade Summary

20160803
Short 1 NQ4714.5, -3.0
Short 2 NQ 4719.0, 4719.0, +3.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1202.3, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 4717.5, 4717.5, +2.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1200.3, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1203.3, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1204.4, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1201.2, 1201.1, +1.0, +0.4
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +2.7

Tues Aug 2 Trades & Journal

20160802
Short 1 TF 1217.0, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1216.4, -1.0
Long 1 ES 2157.75, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1212.2, +2.0
Long 1 TF -1.4
Long 1 TF -1.4
Long 3 TF 1208.0, 1208.8, 1208.8, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0
Long 3 TF 1205.3, 1205.3, 1205.0, -0.0, -0.7, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1203.0, 1203.2, 1203.1, +0.7, -0.7, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1201.3, 1201.3, -0.0, -0.0
Long 3 TF 1201.3, 1201.3, 1201.4, -0.3, -0.3, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1201.8, 1201.8, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1201.5, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1200.2, -0.4
Total ES -0.0
Total TF -3.4


2nd frame trades:
Long 1 TF 1196.7, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1202.3, +1.1
Total ES -0.0
Total TF -1.0


Breakouts as a trade strategy are inconsistent. Since the more common day model is Test-n-Reject, playing breakouts to the developing 1st trend of the frame can be very costly. But on the rarer Persistent Trend Days,
those breakouts are mouth watering with rewards, and so leave a strong lingering feeling of stupidity at not having taken them as they appear. Serial Sequent identifies the potential breakout levels with uncanny accuracy. But since structure in the smaller time frames is subordinate to Day Model, those breakout levels will fail on the more common Test-n-Reject days. Today, such a breakout level appeared on the way down some thirty minutes into the frame. I just stared at it like the proverbial deer in headlights, and tried to fade it once it hit several support levels lower down, all of which gave way with the ensuing persistence of the developing day model. Even through the Noon Hour, I had no clear levels to short a pullback. It was that breakout, or nothing at all. Take the clear breakouts when they come, although more likely to succeed from within the 2nd trend of a reversing morning, 1st trend breakouts are at least worth a moderate risk, less the day's opportunities disappear with a less common Persistent Trend Day development.

Mon Aug 1 Trade Summary

20160801
Short 1 TF 1218.6, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 4722.25, +6.0
Short 2 TF 1214.0, 1214.4, -0.7, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1214.8, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1215.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1216.7, 1216.6, +1.5, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1216.4, +1.5
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +4.8