20160802
Short 1 TF 1217.0, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1216.4, -1.0
Long 1 ES 2157.75, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1212.2, +2.0
Long 1 TF -1.4
Long 1 TF -1.4
Long 3 TF 1208.0, 1208.8, 1208.8, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0
Long 3 TF 1205.3, 1205.3, 1205.0, -0.0, -0.7, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1203.0, 1203.2, 1203.1, +0.7, -0.7, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1201.3, 1201.3, -0.0, -0.0
Long 3 TF 1201.3, 1201.3, 1201.4, -0.3, -0.3, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1201.8, 1201.8, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1201.5, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1200.2, -0.4
Total ES -0.0
Total TF -3.4
2nd frame trades:
Long 1 TF 1196.7, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1202.3, +1.1
Total ES -0.0
Total TF -1.0
Breakouts as a trade strategy are inconsistent. Since the more common day model is Test-n-Reject, playing breakouts to the developing 1st trend of the frame can be very costly. But on the rarer Persistent Trend Days,
those breakouts are mouth watering with rewards, and so leave a strong lingering feeling of stupidity at not having taken them as they appear. Serial Sequent identifies the potential breakout levels with uncanny accuracy. But since structure in the smaller time frames is subordinate to Day Model, those breakout levels will fail on the more common Test-n-Reject days. Today, such a breakout level appeared on the way down some thirty minutes into the frame. I just stared at it like the proverbial deer in headlights, and tried to fade it once it hit several support levels lower down, all of which gave way with the ensuing persistence of the developing day model. Even through the Noon Hour, I had no clear levels to short a pullback. It was that breakout, or nothing at all. Take the clear breakouts when they come, although more likely to succeed from within the 2nd trend of a reversing morning, 1st trend breakouts are at least worth a moderate risk, less the day's opportunities disappear with a less common Persistent Trend Day development.
