20160831
Long 1 TF 1243.6, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 4768.75, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1243.4, -0.2
Short 2 NQ 4775.0, 4775.0, +1.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1241.6, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1241.7, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1241.2, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1238.6, 1238.6, -0.8, -0.8
Long 2 TF 1234.7, 1235.1, +1.0, +1.0d
Long 2 TF 1232.6, 1232.7, +0.7, +1.4
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +0.7
Breakouts are tricky. Even when you can eye the trend failure and deterioration, picking the wrong level too early means discouraging stop-outs. Then, just when you've stepped back to consider things more clearly, that breakout comes with alarming speed, and leaves you speechless on the sidelines... or so at least it did to me today. What do you have to overcome on days like this to take a stop-and-reverse short entry...? You have to acknowledge that the clean breakout trigger has now appeared already 7 pts down into the frame, and just after taking out a daily low, and closing a gap yet unclosed for several days. And remember, the best breakouts always come right at potential fade level support/resistance, making the duplicity of an Inflection all the more daunting. But consider this: the average breakout signal comes just half way already from where the market started the trend, to where it will eventually go ....and, to the extent the breakout seems unfeasible, incomprehensible and inconceivable as to its potential success, is the extent to which almost no one has seen it coming. Remember the Valhalla First Corollary to the Douglas Premise: "....that most of the opportunity that is missed in the market is missed by traders who were unable to concede that the market would go the expected distance, but in the opposite direction to which they were prejudiced."
