Wed Dec 17 Trades & Journal

20141217
Short 1 NQ 4088.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1143.0, +1.5
Short 2 YM 17122, 17122, +7, +20
Long 2 ES 1978.25, +2.0
Long 2 YM 17087, 17087, +10, +20
Long 2 NQ 4112.0, 4112.0, -0.0, -0.0
Long 2 YM 17078, 17073, -15, -10
Long 1 ES 1976.5, +3.0
Long 2 ES 1975.75, 1975.75, -0.0, -0.0
Long 3 TF 1138.5, 1138.5, 1138.5, -1.4, -0.5, -0.5
Long 4 TF 1137.4, 1137.4, 1137.4, 1138.1, +1.5, +1.5, +2.3, +1.4
Total ES +5.0
Total YM +33
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF 5.8

The focus of trading is not prediction. If it was, I certainly would seldom have much profit to report. The focus of trading is on entry positioning--regardless of what trend I might tend to argue for at any given point. And when further volatility works beyond the stop-loss limits of an entry, but the entry model is still intact, then it is important to take a quick breath and access whether to simply re-enter the trade. Many of the best trades are hiding behind just such volatility, as if the market were really a person of perverse character, intending to shake as many would-be participants out of their otherwise correctly positioned trades before fulfilling the very trend they had risked their entries to position for, but now without them. Stay focused. The ValhallaFutures trade room will be close from here through the rest of the holiday season, to re-open Jan 2, 2015... ... and we want to wish you a very Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkuh to all.

Tues Dec 16 Trade Summary

20141216
Short 2 TF 1138.6, 1139.2, +1.2, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1140.1, -0.4
Short 1 YM 17105, +20
Long 1 NQ 4130.25, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 4115.0, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 4114.5, -3.0
Short 1 NQ 4138.25, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1135.7, +2.0
Total YM +20
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +4.8

Mon Dec 15 Trade Summary

20141215
Short 1 TF 1153.4, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1157.1, 1157.1, +1.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1155.0, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 4211.75, +4.5
Long 2 TF 1150.8, 1150.5, +0.7, -0.8
Long 1 NQ 4203.25, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 4201.0, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 4203.00, +6.0
Long 1 TF 1147.1, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4198.0, 4197.0, +6.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1142.8, -1.4
Long 3 TF 1140.4, 1140.4, 1140.4, +0.7, +1.0, +3.0
Total NQ +28.5
Total TF +5.7

Fri Dec 12 Trades & Journal

20141212
Short 2 NQ 4249.5, 4249.75, +4.0, +2.0
Long 3 TF 1155.6, 1155.2, 1155.6, +3.0, +0.7, +1.5
Long 1 YM 17408, +20
Total YM +20
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +5.2

Since leaving the CME, rollover for the TF at the ICE has been unclear. Volume was clearly better in the Dec contract today, even with CME's typical evacuation of their Dec contracts. ...so, trade the volume and stay with the Dec another day. Roll out of the CME's on Thursday after the 1st hour. This seems to be the best solution. ...and a good weekend to all...

Thur Dec 11 Trade Summary

20141211
Short 2 NQ 4263.5, 4263.25, +2.0, -2.75
Short 1 YM 17670, -7
Short 3 TF 1176.3, 1176.4, 1176.0, +1.0, -0.6, +0.7
Long 2 YM 17699, 17698, -7, -4
Short 3 NQ 4274.25, 4274.25, 4274.25, +2.0, +5.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1174.1, 1174.1, +0.7, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 4282.25, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 4281.25, +2.0
Short 1 YM 17732, -6
Short 1 NQ 4285.75, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 4286.5, 4287.0, -2.5, +0.5
Short 2 YM 17755, 17757, +18, +7
Short 2 TF 1181.9, 1181.9, +0.5, +1.7
Total YM +1
Total NQ +8.25
Total TF +6.0

Wed Dec 10 Trade Summary

20141210
Long 2 TF 1182.3, 1182.6, +1.8, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1179.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1179.1, 1179.1, +0.7, +2.5
Long 1 TF 1178.9, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1177.5, -0.7
Long 1 NQ 4263.25, +3.0
Short 2 NQ 4273.25, 4273.0, +2.0, +4.0
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +3.3

Tues Dec 9 Trade Summary

20141209
Short 3 YM 17689, 17688, 17695, +10, +7, -4
Short 1 TF 1159.9, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1159.9, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1160.3, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1160.9, -0.0
Long 2 ES 2040.25, 2040.0, -1.25, -1.25,
Long 2 TF 1156.7, 1156.7, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 4223.0, 4223.0, +2.0, -2.5
Short 2 TF 1163.8, 1163.8, +0.7, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 4240.75, 4240.75, -0.0, -0.0
Short 1 ES 2042.0, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 4256.25, 4256.0, +2.0, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 4247.5, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 4249.75, +4.5
Total ES -3.5
Total YM +13
Total NQ +16.0
Total TF +2.5

Mon Dec 8 Trades & Journal

20141208
Short 2 TF 1181.4, 1182.5, -0.0, +1.5
Short 1 ES 2073.25, +0.25
Short 1 TF 1183.6, +1.8
Short 1 NQ 4319.75, -0.25
Long 2 NQ 4315.0, 4313.25, -3.0, -1.0
Long 2 NQ 4311.25, 4311.25, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1186.6, 1186.7, -1.4, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1188.3, 1188.3, 1188.2, -0.2, -0.2, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1188.1, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1186.6, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1185.9, +1.2
Total ES +0.25
Total NQ -7.25
Total TF +4.4

The important thing to remember about taking losses is to stay calm, and not be too disparate to recover them. If your entry models reflect the variety of breakout and reversal patterns typical of market action, another set of trades are soon to reappear affording you the opportunity for a profitable day. If not, don't dig yourself in a hole that you cannot recover from by means of a single day's profit quota. Everything will be different tomorrow. Stay disciplined.

Fri Dec 5 Trade Summary

20141205
Long 1 TF 1177.8, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1176.8, 1176.8, +1.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1182.5, +0.8
Long 1 TF 1179.1, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1178.4, 1178.4, +0.7, +1.6
Short 2 YM 17943, 17944, -4, +7
Total YM +3
Total TF +4.7

Thurs Dec 4 Trades & Journal

20141204
Short 1 NQ 4322.00, +3.0
Long 2 YM 17857, 17857, +5, -7
Long 1 TF 1174.9, +1.2
Long 1 YM 17841, +12
Short 1 TF 1173.9, +1.3
Long 3 TF 1170.8, 1170.5, 1170.5, -0.0, -1.4, -0.8
Long 2 NQ 4311.0, 4311.25, -3.0, -3.0,
Long 3 TF 1168.4, 1168.4, 1168.4, +0.5, +1.2, +2.0
Total YM +10
Total NQ -3.0
Total TF +4.0

Price action can be so deceiving. What appears bullish can lead to a total collapse, and vice versa. But our job as the Trader is not to predict. Our job is to position. Today, at a critical buy level, I failed to place a stp n reverse order. That would have positioned me for the last and deepest leg of the collapse. I let price action convince me of the intent of the trend instead of positioning for the possibility of the outcome. "Most of the opportunity that is missed in the markets is missed by traders who couldn't concede that the market would go the expected distance...but in the opposite direction", someone once said. Remember the feelings of confidence that come with a trade. It can appear as a sort of internal cockeyness at such moments, and as such, should help send out an alarm bell that you might be missing something right in the roadway dead ahead, staring you in the face with deers eyes in the headlights. Wake up! Be the B-9 Environment Control Robot from Lost in Space. Wave your arms and call out "Danger! Danger!"

Wed Dec 3 Trades & Journal

20141203
Short 1 TF 1168.1, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1171.1, 1171.4, +0.7, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1171.7, 1171.7, 1171.4, +0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 YM 17875, 17875, -8, -8,
Short 2 YM 17883, 17883, +9, +10
Long 2 TF 1171.1, 1171.1, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 4202.5, 4201.75, -2.0, -2.0
Long 1 YM 17868, +10
Short 1 TF 1177.8, -1.4
Short 4 TF 1178.8, 1178.8, 1178.8, 1178.3, -0.9, +0.7, +0.7, +0.7
Short 2 YM 17889, 17889, -6, -6
Short 2 TF 1182.3, 1182.2, +0.7, +2.2
Long 2 TF 1176.8, 1176.5, -0.7, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1176.6, +1.2
Total YM +1
Total NQ -4.0
Total TF +1.2

A second full Persistent Trend Day Up beginning in a row is a rare thing, and as such, provided scant few pullback buy opportunities to get in sync. And since this model offers only very selective fade opportunities, a carefully selected breakout trigger can often be the best and only way in which to participate. I balked at the only good one that appeared today, and was left with only the fade opps. Not all turns are readily I.D. with a limited set of entry models. Intraday swings are the stuff of the more common Test-n-Reject Day Model, and no doubt, there'll be more of those soon. Keep the losses small on days where reversals and breakouts are more carefully disguised.

Tues Dec 2 Trades & Journal

20141202
Short 2 NQ 4299.5, 4300.75, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1159.6, -0.2
Long 2 YM 17794, 17794, +7, +10
Long 2 NQ 4293.75, 4292.75, -2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1162.6, 1162.7, -0.6, +0.7
Short 1 YM 17824, -7
Long 2 NQ 4300.25, 4301.25, +2.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1163.6, +1.6
Short 2 TF 1166.6, 1166.4, +0.7, +0.8
Long 1 NQ 4297.25, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1170.2, -0.3,
Short 2 TF 1171.0, 1170.9, -0.0, -0.5
Total YM +10
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +2.2

Patience vs quick response seems like conflicting dialectic. In that regard, trading is much like the game of baseball. You almost have to time the moments of patience to fit the requirements of the game, but then be prepared to act almost instantaneously at the crack of the bat. Today seemed just such a day with a great deal of patience required to hold onto shorts at the 1st Frame HOD, once we had the runner in a hot-box between 2nd and 3rd. He had to make a move eventually. Throw the ball too soon and he simply goes the other way. Chase him down immediately and he simply retreats back safely to base. Today, I choked down too quickly and the runner slipped right out of the box and got the expected extra base. This kept the runner behind him from advancing, but what is the point of protecting profits when the early trade profits were all so small, and a daily profit quota not yet in hand? Watch for the extended rallies that grind on into the end of the 1st Frame. A correction usually comes in just about there.... right at the time best suited to wear a fielder out... Be patient. Read the play. Note signs of the impending outcome. Stay focused.

Mon Dec 1 Trades & Journal

20141201
Short 1 TF 1167.4, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1161.0, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 4305.75, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1165.9, +3.0
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +7.0

In futures trading, volatility is your friend... or at least it should be. Without it, swing reactions are muted and profit targets are stutter-step at best, and simply unattainable otherwise. Keep your eyes on your models. They should arrive with a confluence of technical aspects. .... all the more important that this confluence arrives when things are volatile, as early entries can be costly. Stay disciplined.

Wed Nov 26 Trade Summary-Happy Thanksgiving to all

20141126
Short 1 TF 1185.0, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1185.2, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1185.8, -0.6
Long 1 TF 1186.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1186.2, 1185.1, -1.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1187.6, 1187.7, -0.2, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1188.0, 1187.9, -0.4, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1186.1, 1186.1, +0.3, -0.6
Total TF -0.2

Tues Nov 25 Trade Summary

20141125
Long 1 NQ 4296.75, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1189.4, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1188.0, 1188.1, +0.7, -0.6
Long 2 NQ 4293.75, 4293.5, -2.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1184.2, 1184.4, +0.7, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1183.8, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 4298.0, +6.0
Short 2 YM 17784, 17784, +7, -1
Long 1 TF 1181.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1181.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1180.8, -0.4
Total YM +6
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +2.2

Mon Nov 24 Trade Summary

20141124
Long 2 TF 1177.0, 1177.1, +0.9, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 4272.0, -1.75
Short 1 TF 1180.8, +1.0
Short 2 NQ 4274.5, 4274.5, -1.0, -2.25
Short 1 TF 1180.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1181.5, 1181.4, +1.2, +0.7
Short 1 NQ 1177.0, +4.0
Long 2 YM 17784, 11783, -5, -3
Total YM -8
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +4.3

Fri Nov 21 Trade Summary

Trade Summary
20141121
Long 2 TF 1179.5, 1179.7, -0.7, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1178.8, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1179.3, 1179.2, +1.6, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1181.5, +1.6
Short 1 TF 1181.5, +1.6
Total TF +4.8

Thurs Nov 20 Trades & Journal

Trade Summary
20141120
Long 1 NQ 4209.25, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1153.1, +1.2
Short 1 ES 20405, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1155.2, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1157.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1157.7, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1158.2, 1158.0, +0.7, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1159.4, 1159.4 , +0.7, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1169.3, -0.6
Long 1 TF 1160.4, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1159.1, 1159.0, +0.8, +0.4
Short 1 ES 2046.75, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1162.9, 1163.2, -0.5, +0.7
Short 2 NQ 1137.25, 1137.25, +1.0, -1.0
Short 1 NQ 4240.75, -3.0
Short 2 TF 1164.4, 1164.4, 1164.8, +0.5, +0.7, +1.7
Short 2 NQ 4225.25, 4242.75, -2.0, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1164.3, -0.6
Short 1 YM 17670 +11
Short 1 TF 1164.7, +0.9
Short 2 NQ 4243.5, 4243.75, +4.0, +2.0
Total ES -1.5
Total YM +11
Total NQ -5.0
Total TF +6.1

Persistent Trend Days are the hardest of all to trade, especially when the Trend is bull and the bull is looking tired. Even though we positioned in 3 good places to capitalize on the trend, a lack of patience needed to the slow choppy advance triggered me out of trades well before they had really developed. And fades were only profitable enough to partial out with, or get the stop to near b/e. Thus, I took almost twice the number of trades my Plan limits me to for the 1st frame. Fading the NQ these days, with its daily bull persistence has proved a negative to recent days results, reducing some of the decent profits from shorting the heavier TF. But volatility swings will return. Stay focused.

Wed Nov 19 Trades & Journal

20141119
Long 1 YM 17611, +13
Short 1 YM 17631, -7
Short 2 TF 1161.2, 1161.5 +2.0, +1.0
Short 2 YM 17636, 17636, +7, +10
Long 3 TF 1158.2, 1158.6, 1158.3, -0.3, -0.4, -0.3
Long 2 NQ 4211.0, 4211.25, +6.5, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1158.1, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1159.1, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1152.8, +0.2
Long 1 TF 1152.5, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1152.8, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1148.9, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1150.0, +1.9
Total YM +23
Total NQ +8.5
Total TF +5.7

Market action for the day tends to 'condition' you. I repeatedly let decent trade profits go by in the early TF action today when just shy of achieving a 2 pt target, only to get stp'd out at b/e as the TF sought out lower lows. Then, when more decisive buy signal did appear, I was conditioned by my earlier mistakes and settled for the smaller profits I had ignored in earlier trades, only to watch the market continue ascending into the type of runner I had hoped to uncover earlier. Such does market action 'condition' you to eventually repeat a solution just when it no longer applies and the context has changed. And this is not a condition to which it is easily applied the euphemism "lesson learned". In the here and now, that lesson is long forgotten in the need to nail down the minimum profits wanted for the daily goal before the end of the 1st frame arrives.

Tues Nov 18 Trade Summary

20141118
Short 1 NQ 4227.5, -3.0
Short 3 NQ 4232.5, 4232.5, 4232.0, +3.0, +3.0, -1.75
Short 2 NQ 4232.0, 4232.0, +2.0, -1.5
Short 1 YM 17647, -5
Short 1 NQ 4232.75, 4333.25, -1.5, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 4234.25, 4236.25, -3.0, -1.25
Short 3 NQ 4236.25, 4236.25, 4236.25, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1176.2, 1176.2, +0.8, +2.7
Long 1 TF 1172.6, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1171.8, +0.8
Long 1 YM 17638, -6
Short 2 YM 17633, +5, -5
Total YM -11
Total NQ -6.5
Total TF +3.7

Mon Nov 17 Trades & Journal

20141117
Short 2 YM 17576, 17576, -0, -0
Long 1 TF 1174.3, -0.2
Short 1 YM 17594, -0
Long 1 TF 1172.4, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1171.7, 1171.8, -0.7, -0.0
Short 1 YM 17597, -0
Short 1 TF 1170.8, +2.7
Long 1 TF 1168.8, +1.1
Short 1 YM 17618, +20
Short 2 TF 1171.4, 1171.4, +0.7, +2.0
Total YM +20
Total TF +4.9

Bifurcation, or divergence, as they call it, presents a special challenge to taking positions. The best way is to just trade the contract signals as they present themselves. That was the mistake made last Thursday which left me unprepared to capture the 1st frame bear breakdown. Today, that breakdown did not come so cleanly, but it did arrive with both sell signals in the ES and YM at their highs just as the TF was triggering an breakdown play into new lows for the day. This requires you to fade the highs, while playing a stp-n-rev TF breakdown level from the buy signals near the lows. Since you can't accurately predict the outcome, you must position for it, and accept the stp-out loss when re-triggering into trend. Stay focus, accept that you can't predict. Instead, position your Trade Plan as the models present themselves, and let the market be what it wants.

Fri Nov 14 Trade Summary

20141114
Short 1 NQ 4211.5, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1169.2, 1169.4, +0.7, +1.7
Short 2 NQ 4209.0, 4210.0, -1.5, +2.0
Short 2 YM 17621, 17620, +7, -9
Short 2 TF 1176.5, 1176.5, -0.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 4201.75, 4201.75, +2.0, -1.75
Long 2 NQ 4196.75, 4196.75, +2.0, +4.0
Total NQ +4.75
Total TF +4.4

Thus Nov 13 Trades & Journal

20141112
Long 2 NQ 4204.75, 4204.75, +2.0, +3.0
Short 2 NQ 4215.25, 4215.25, -3.0, -3.0
Short 2 YM 17632, 17632, +12, +12
Long 2 TF 1185.5, 1185.7, +1.0, -0.0
Short 1 YM 17654, -6
Long 1 TF 1185.9, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1185.5, -0.9
Short 1 NQ 4225.25, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1184.9, 1184.9, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1180.3, 1180.3, -0.3, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1178.4, 1178.4, -0.3, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1177.0, 1177.0, -0.5, -0.5
Total YM +18
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF -3.8

Today's inflection breakdown came with some extremely clear signals, both in the ES and NQ at the very High-of-Day, and at the breakdown by the TF at the inflection level. ...and yet I was doe in the headlights as the market collapsed. It's not that I let losses get big, it's that my skills were so equal to the lost opportunity. Convinced that the TF would eventually comply to the leadership of the other three, I fell prey to buying the Russell at support without a stop-n-reverse, as it doubled as an inflection level, so steeped in trend prejudice was my eye. There is always something to be learned from the market, but what can be discouraging is when lessons practiced already so many times before fail to elicit the needed trade behavior. All the more discouraging to have missed this initial break with all the technical warnings flashed by the TF these many weeks. Regroup and resolve. But in perspective...after slapping myself around a bit with a large trout, our frame or reference is not the larger daily trend. And although today's break might have been significant to the end of that trend, and indeed a great intraday swing opportunity that I balked at when it appeared, it's quite irrelevant to tomorrow's trades. And tomorrow is another day. Review the models. Remember where your head was at the turn, and resolve to recognize it through the haze of trend prejudice next time.

Wed Nov 12 Trade Summary

20141112
Short 2 TF 1175.4, 1175.4, -1.4, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1176.1, 1176.1, +1.0, +2.0
Short 2 YM 17505, 17505, +7, -7
Short 1 TF 1176.5, -0.0
Short 1 ES 2032.5, -0.25
Short 1 NQ 4079.0, -2.0
Short 2 YM 17539, 17540, +7, +18
Short 2 TF 1178.5, 1178.3, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1175.6, +0.8
Total ES -0.25
Total YM +25
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +3.7

Tues Nov 11, Veterans Day, Trades & Journal

20141111
Long 1 TF 1175.5, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1174.2, +1.2
Long 1 NQ 4167.0, -3.0
Short 1 YM 17550, -4
Short 1 YM 17556, 17556, +5, -5
Short 2 NQ 4168.75, 4169.0, 4169.75, +2.0, -2.0, -1.25
Short 2 YM 17568, 17567, +5, -3
Long 1 YM 17562, +14
Short 2 YM 17568, 17571, -6, +5
Short 2 TF 1177.6, 1177.7, -0.7, +0.7
Short 3 TF 1178.5, 1178.7, 1178.3, -0.7, +0.7, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1179.0, 1178.9, +0.5, +0.7
Total YM +11
Total NQ -4.25
Total TF +2.0

A bank holiday, worthy of a market holiday as well. Just want to say a word of acknowledgement and thanks to all our veterans, both living and departed.... for the ultimate sacrifice on the altar of freedom paid by those who died in battle....for us.... and for those who survived but had committed their lives to the same. We salute them all...
and say.... FREEDOM FIRST !!!!!!!!! ... there is no peace without freedom. Semper Fi.

Mon Nov 10 Trades & Journal

20141110
Short 1 YM 17515, -7
Long 2 TF 1171.8, 1170.8, +0.7, +1.8
Short 1 TF 1172.9, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1173.2, -0.5
Long 1 YM 17497, +20
Long 1 YM 17508, +5
Long 2 TF 1172.4, 1172.4, -0.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1172.5, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1177.5, 1177.4, +0.7, +1.4
Total YM +18
Total TF +2.2


Inflection breakout plays should be an integral part of the Trade Plan. Filtering the best ones in and those less likely to succeed out by means of a specific technique list of minutia is not so easily accomplished. There seems an abundance of fresh situations that must be accounted for across the broad spectrum of circumstances where the best breakouts occur. Today, just such a breakout occurred that I was unprepared for. It was easily the best trade of the trade and did occur as a clear inflection level with Serial Sequent, but only after an appraisal of other technical minutia suggested the trend had changed and a breakout would be a counter trend entry. The issue seems to be that some technical issues trump others, and in context of what other technical events are happening in tandem, their meaning can actually be the exact opposite to what they lend as interpretation in other context. ...and all this you have to recognize sometimes within a very short minute before the trade has exploded and you are left counting the chickens of your entry's expectations, but in the opposite direction..... Study the histories. Breakouts like this are not wholly uncommon, just perhaps not occurring every day. Find other examples. Note the similarities between that reveal elements of conceptual models. Learn the model. Recognize when elements of that model are coming together again. Be prepared. Stay focused.

Fri Nov 7 Trade Summary

20141107
Long 1 TF 1167.7, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1164.4, 1164.4, 1164.4, +1.0, +2.0, -0.2
Long 1 NQ 41.53, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1163.5, 1163.6, +1.1, +1.8
Short 1 TF 1165.6, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1165.4, 1165.6, +0.7, +0.7
Long 1 NQ 4143.25, -3.0
Long 2 NQ 4137.25, 4137.25, +3.0, +10.0
Total NQ +8.0
Total TF +6.2

Thurs Nov 6 Trade Summary

20141106
Short 3 NQ 4142.0, 4142.0, 4143.0, +3.0, +6.5, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 4145.25, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 4142.75, +4.0
Long 2 TF 1162.0, 1162.0, +0.7, +1.6
Short 1 TF 1164.3, -0.7,
Short 2 TF 1165.1, 1165.6, -0.0, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1161.9, +1.0
Total NQ +18.5
Total TF +4.1

Wed Nov 5 Trades & Journal

20141105
Long 1 YM 17408, -5
Long 2 TF 1168.4, 1168.0, -1.4, -0.5
Long 2 YM 17372, 17372, +7, -7
Long 2 TF 1164.5, 1165.0, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 ES 2012.25, 2011.75, -1.0, -1.5
Short 5 TF 1169.0, 1168.7, 1168.7, 1169.1, 1169.1, -0.7, -0.0, -0.0, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 ES 2011.50, 2011.25, -1.25, -1.0
Total ES -4.75
Total YM -5
Total TF -3.6

There's something to be learned everyday from your trading. ....especially on days that you lose. Today, it was less my trading and more my trade plan that failed me. Without a confluence of indicators at the turns, I was leaning heavily on the internal structure algorithm we call Serial Sequent. But the important turns came at specific numbers from the Pivot Exhaustion Grid without the confluence of that algorithm. I have seen this many times before...and enough so that it must kick me into a research mode to consider a partial position with these important elements do not arrive in tandem, regardless of which is absent at the time. Have Plan. Stick to that Plan. Keep an open mind about what's in that Plan, and make changes to it only reluctantly and carefully. Because once included, a Plan's Entry Models must be taken with only the filters that accompany that particular model, trend opinions and apprehensions notwithstanding.

Tues Nov 4 Trades & Journal

Trade Summary
20141104
Short 2 YM 17292, 17295, -0, -4
Short 1 NQ 4153.25, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1165.9, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1169.7, +1.0
Total YM -4
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +4.0

Several breakout signals that were In-Plan were passed today as had a minimum profit target already in hand. And yet nothing hurts one's psyche more than a trade that pays off so well once passed on. ...far more painful than even trades that lose. Just so it is with trading. When volatile breakouts occur, sitting on the sidelines is painful, and causes you doubt if your Trade Plan does not include them. Breakouts can be vital to a trading plan. Just be precise about their accompanying filters and avoid going into a hole for the day insisting that the next one will finally work out. Stay disciplined.

Mon Nov 3 Trade Summary

Trade Summary
20141103
Long 2 TF 1172.7, +0.4, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1171.5, 1170.8, -0.0, -0.8
Long 2 TF 1172.9, 1172.7, -0.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1172.4, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1172.5, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1172.6, +1.4
Long 2 TF 1171.6, 1171.0, -1.4, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1170.8, +2.2
Total TF +2.8

Fri Oct 31 Trades & Journal

20141031
Short 2 YM 17245, 17245, -0, -7
Long 2 YM 17251, 17251, +7, +19
Short 1 NQ 4149.5, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 4141.5, -1.5
Short 2 NQ 4139.75, 4138.75, -1.0, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1169.7, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1170.0, 1170.1, -0.6, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1170.5, 1170.3, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1171.0, 1171.0, +0.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1170.2, 1170.5, +0.7, +1.4
Long 2 TF 1167.5, 1167.6, +0.5, +2.0
Total YM +19
Total NQ -4.5
Total TF +4.4

Often on big gap days, the energy is sucked right out of the market. That's because the trend and volatility were all pre-cash opening, and the 1st frame becomes more like stepping into the PM session from the opening bell. But it is what it is. Work with what you've been dealt. And losing focus, I missed several excellent signals in the YM while stuck in poorer action of the early NQ and TF. Stay focused. Trade what's in front of you. Know your plan. Look for your plan to come to fruition where it wants. Trade the signals where they appear. ...and a good weekend to all...

Thurs Oct 30 Trade Summary

20141030
Long 1 NQ 4077.0, +5.0
Short 2 YM 16988, 16993, 16988, +7, -5, -7
Short 2 TF 1146.9, 1146.7, +3.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1136.5, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1139.1, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1139.5, 1139.4, -0.6, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1142.7, 1142.6, +0.7, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 4070.0, +5.0
Total YM -5
Total NQ +10
Total TF +5.7

Wed Oct 29 Trades & Journal

20141029
Short 1 TF 46.8, +2.0
Long 1 YM 16953, +20
Long 2 NQ 4090.0, 4090.0, +2, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1148.6, +4.0
Total YM +20
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +6.0

Trade according to plan. Have a profit goal incorporated in that plan for the frame of day you are trading. There's nothing wrong with pulling the plug when that profit goal is reached. Today, the hits just kept on coming, but I missed several of them, including the first inflection breakout, because I had gratefully reached a profit goal for the 1st Frame of day. ...and that alleviates me from having to write that I didn't take something in my trade plan that I was supposed to have taken. GO ROYALS !!!

Tues Oct 28 Trades & Journal

Trade Summary
20141028
Long 1 TF 1119.1, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1118.0, -0.7,
Long 1 TF 1118.6, +3.0
Short 2 YM 16812, 16813, +11, +5
Short 1 TF 1125.9, +1.4
Short 1 YM 16816, +13
Long 1 NQ 4071.5, +4.0
Total YM +29
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +3.4

Missed another key inflection breakout today in the TF, 2 days in a row. No excuse for yesterday's. Today's however comes with TF bull leadership. An old friend but so long forgotten that I'd tossed it from the list. One's apprehensions and inclinations are what hold the best in Trader back from his best performance. One is reminded at such times of the Warhol quote, "I want to be a machine". One can never trade like a machine, however. And outside of trading it would hardly be an admired attribute. But trading from a Trade Plan can at least attempt to keep the Analyst at work after hours, and the Trader functioning at his job better within the session. Review your Trade Plan each day before going into battle. ...better still as a refresher once taken for granted to clear out the cobwebs of 'inclinations'. Be disciplined.

Mon Oct 27 Trades & Journal

20141027
Long 1 NQ 4024.0, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1105.1, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1101.6, 1101.0, -0.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1099.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1101.5, 1101.3, +0.7, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 4024.5, 4025.25, -2.0, -2.25
Short 2 ES 1951.75, 1952.25, +2.0, +1.25
Long 1 ES 1949.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1103.2, +1.0
Short 3 TF 1108.9, 1108.7, 1108.5, +0.7, +1.6, +0.7
Total ES +5.25
Total NQ +0.75
Total TF +4.3

Missed a key inflection breakout coming off the lows today, and so missed the best trade of the morning. Was not flexible enough about trend possibilities, and was slow to recover from a stp-out taking further breakdowns at those same lows. Admitting you are wrong is a difficult thing in life, but in trading, it's complicated by the need to admit your prejudices immediately on the first moment a hint of conflict arises, because the consequences are so immediate. Position for the outcome. That's what stop-n-reverse is for. The market is its own authority for trend. It needs no other. Have a Trade Plan that accommodates the inflection junctures with readily identifiable entry models. Be the Plan.

Fri Oct 24 Trades & Journal

20141024
Long 1 TF 1112.1, -0.3
Long 1 NQ 4007.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4005.0, +8.0
Long 2 TF 1113.2, 1113.2, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 4008.5, 4008.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1113.2, 1113.2, -0.9, -0.9
Long 1 NQ 4008.25, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1111.7, 1111.7, -1.4, -1.4
Long 3 TF 1110.8, 1110.8, 1110.8, -0.7. -0.7, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1112.3, 1112.3, 1112.3, +0.7, -0.4, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1111.9, 1111.9, 1111.8, +1.0, -.5, +0.5
Long 2 NQ 4020.0, 4020.0, -2.0, -2.0
Total NQ -3.0
Total TF -6.1

Every day can teach you something about trading. And after you've established some good working entry models and management strategies, trading is really all about managing your head. Today, the action was challenging, especially so in the TF. But it is what it is. It's too easy to say the day was unusual, characterized by whiplash action at the turns and distinct and confusing bifurcation between the TF and the other contracts. But from that, you learn nothing. The fact is that the market is bigger than your trade plan, and can throw things at your trade plan that either trigger you in at the wrong places, or filter you out at the right places. Today did both of those to me. And is so doing, broke a winning streak that goes back about one month to September 23rd. Hold your losses to about the same amount of your profit goals on any one day. That will make recovery reachable on subsequent days. Stay disciplined. A good weekend to all....and go Royals!

Thurs Oct 23 Trade Summary

20141023
Short 3 TF 1116.4, 1116.4, 1116.4, +0.7, +0.5, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1118.8, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1116.7, -0.3
Total TF +1.8

Internet down for most of the morning.... so trading window was narrow. But when I finally got into the chat room,
it was rewarding to note how well students had done in the first frame without me.

Wed Oct 22 Trade Summary

20141022
Short 3 TF 1110.2, 1110.2, 1110.1, +0.7, +0.7, -0.8
Short 3 YM 16561, 16561, 16563, -0, -0, +17
Short 2 TF 1113.2, 1119.2, +0.5, +1.5
Long 3 NQ 3963.0, 3964.0, 3963.25, +2.0, -2.25, -1.5
Long 2 YM 16541, 16541, -7, -7
Total YM +3
Total NQ -1.75
Total TF +2.6

Tues Oct 21 Trades & Journal

20141021
Short 2 NQ 3913.75, 3913.75, +2.0, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 3909.5, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1100.4, 1100.5, -0.7, +0.7
Short 1 ES 1917.0, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 3916.75, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1103.5, 1103.6, -0.8, +0.7
Short 3 TF 1104.5, 1105.6, 1105.6, -1.5, +0.7, -0.4
Short 2 NQ 3924.75, 3924.75, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 3928.5, 3928.5, +2.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1103.7, 1103.6, +1.0, +0.5
Total ES +2.0
Total NQ +12.0
Total TF +0.2

A frame without TF profits is like a day without sunshine... but in the Persistent Trend Day action model, 1st frame pullbacks are often shallow, and reversals from resistance show little if any production. Such is the grinding nature of many Persistent Trend Days. If this one sticks today, it will be the 2nd in a row, and a fairly rare bird. ...and another recent sign that this bull is not quite dead just yet.. stay focused. Days like this don't usually offer the best swing opportunities in the 1st frame, and they can be deadly to a week's overall profit goals if you try to force too many trades into the grinding action. Stay cool. Swing volatility will return. Persistent Trend Days seldom account for more than 4 or 5 days in a month.

Mon Oct 20 Trades & Journal

20141020
Short 2 TF 1086.7, 1086.5, +2.0, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1087.2, 1086.5, -0.2, +1.2
Short 1 NQ 3821.75, +8.0
Long 2 NQ 3832.0, 3832.0, +2.0, +5.0
Short 1 YM 16274, +20
Total YM +20
Total NQ +15.0
Total TF +3.7

Take the signals where you find them. Although the mini Russell is contract of choice, sometimes the signals just aren't there. Perhaps we get a bit spoiled by the TF's performance around pivots, and that makes the production seen in the other contracts, especially the ES, seem like chump change. Profits add up, and there's nothing wrong with taking multiples in the other contracts so as to weight their positions more evenly with that of the TF. Consider adding more contracts in the YM and NQ when taking positions there. Stay focused. Be ready to act. See the trades flesh out their requirements before the models reach fruition. Rehearse your actions, if this, then that. This is the source of your discipline.

Fri Oct 17 Trade Summary

20141017
Short 1 TF 1089.5, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1090.9, 1191.3, -1.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1 1087.1, +4.0
Short 2 NQ 3704.5, 3705.0, -1.5, +2.0
Total NQ +0.5
Total TF +3.6

Thurs Oct 16 Trades & Journal

20141016
Short 1 TF 1067.1, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1066.4, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1066.3, +4.0
Total TF +7.8

Today, I did something unusual. I let my students call the trades. My own Ninja charts were locked up, but my brokerage platform was not. The models today were so clear, much like yesterday. And today, the pre-positioning of the Philly Fed trade was as typical a example of a pre-news model as ever. I simply traded on the faith that my students understood the models as well as I, no thinking involved. ....and I must say, seeing their clarity of understanding made it one of the most rewarding trading days I have ever had. Trade with a plan. Each day the market is different, much like the way no two fingerprints can ever be alike. And yet conceptual models of market behavior repeat themselves day after day. Have a Trade Plan that incorporates those models. Trade your Plan, not your opinions.

Wed Oct 15 Trade Summary

20141015
Short 1 TF 1043.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3737.75, +8.0
Short 1 NQ 3777.25, +8.0
Short 1 TF 1056.9, -1.0
Short 1 NQ 3782.25, +8.0
Short 1 TF 1061.5, +1.5
Long 1 YM 16039, -10
Long 2 TF 1055.4, 1055.6, +3.0, +0.7
Total YM -10
Total NQ +24.00
Total TF +4.7

Tues Oct 14 Trades & Summary

Trade Summary
20141014
Long 2 NQ 3801.25, +4.0, -1.5
Long 1 TF 1153.5, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1156.1, +1.0
Short 2 NQ 3825.25, 2825.75, +2.0, +5.0
Total NQ +9.5
Total TF +3.0

'One-lot management' is an oxymoron. My only excuse for a trepidation 1-lot entry in the TF early buy signal was my late arrival to the charts, what with an internet data problem. But in truth, I was up and running well enough in time to see it coming. Daily confidence in your trading operations can depend on so many little things you take for granted... until they're not in front of you or at your side when they should be... Stay focused.

Mon Oct 13 Trades & Journal

20141013
Long 2 NQ 3857.5, 3856.5, +3.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1049.1, 1049.1, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 ES 1893.75, 1893.75, -1.5, -1.5
Long 2 NQ 3839.0, 3839.0, +2.0, +8.0
Long 2 3835.25, 3835.25, +3.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3833.25, 3833.25, -3.0, -3.0
Long 2 YM 16404, 16404, +7, -10
Long 2 NQ 3822.75, 3822.75, +2.0, -2.0
Long 2 YM 16394, 16394, +7, +30
Long 3 NQ 3819.0, 3819.0, 3819.0, +2.0, +5.0,
Long 3 TF 1043.7, 1043.7, 1043.7, +0.7, -0.8, -0.8
Long 2 NQ 3811.5, 3811.5, +5.0, +10.0
Short 2 TF 1049.7, 1049.7, +0.7, -0.0
Short 2 ES 1893.0, 1893.0, +1.5, -.25
Short 2 TF 1054.0, 1054.7, -1.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1055.6, 1055.6, +0.7, +1.0
Long 4 TF 1050.5, 1050.5, 1049.7, 1050.2, -0.0, -0.0, +3.0, +2.0
Total ES -1.75
Total YM +34
Total NQ +27
Total TF +4.6

You have to take the signals where you find them. In some instances, depending on the flexibility of your trade plan, you can allow the signals in one contract to count for entry in another. To do so in the TF, my Trade Plan demands buy signals from all 3 other major index contracts, the NQ, the ES and the YM. Some trade plans maybe less stringent. Today, the signals were occurring more in the other contracts sporadically in the 1st Frame and simply were not there in the early going for the TF. Be patient. The signals will come round eventually. Trade what's in front of you. Anticipate their arrival when watching for entry model requirements. Note what is missing. When it comes together, you have your trade. Until then, the sidelines are a good place to sit with a clear view and clearer head...especially on bank holidays when many of the players are missing from the arena and signals are spotty, action erratic. Be calm. Let the models reach fruition.

Fri Oct 10 Trades & Journal

20141010
Short 2 YM 16632, 16632, +7, -4
Short 2 TF 1070.4, 1070.4, +0.7, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1064.9, 1064.4, -1.4, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1063.8, 1063.8, 1063.8, +1.5, +2.0, +4.0
Long 2 YM 16616, 16616, +20, -5
Long 1 TF 1064.1, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1061.3, 1061.3, -0.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1060.8, 1060.8, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1060.8, 1060.8, 1061.0, +2.0, +2.0, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1057.0, 1056.0, -1.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1055.2, 1055.2, -0.8, -0.8
Long 2 TF 1053.1, 1053.1, -0.2, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1059.5, 1059.2, +0.8, +2.0
Total YM +18
Total TF +8.4

Volatility can be your friend or your enemy. And it's as easy to give profits back on volatile days as it can be sometimes to make them. I could have quit after the first set of trades and had no less than twice as many trades later. Especially on a Friday, it's usually better to just stop on any early profit that approaches your quota. Volatility can be like the moth to the flame, and like a junkie, you begin to want to live off it. Stay disciplined.

Thurs Oct 9 Trades & Journal

20141009
Short 2 TF 1089.0, 1088.6, +3.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1084.3, -0.3
Long 1 YM 16863, -5
Long 2 TF 1078.9, 1078.9, +0.5, +1.5
Long 1 NQ 4013.25, 4012.25, +8.0, +2.0
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +5.4

Trading in isolation can be a difficult thing. On the one hand, you need concentration and focus. That's compromised by company. On the other, a view of trade handling by others can help get you out of your own head when you feel a little stuck. "If they can do that, so can I" is not a bad conclusion to have on the way to improving on your own habits. Thankfully, I have my students. And many of them are better traders than I. Find a mentor, not so as to lose your independence of thought, but occasionally, if nothing else, to help you get unstuck when the narrow confines of your own thoughts have become too cramped.

Wed Oct 8 Trade Summary

20141008
Long 1 TF 1072.7, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1072.9, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1071.6, 1071.1, -1.4, -0.4
Long 3 TF 1069.5, 1069.5, +0.7, -0.2, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 3948.0, 3948.0, +5.0, -1.75
Long 3 NQ 3946.25, 3946.5, 3945.0, +9.0, +5.0, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1071.8, 1071.5, +0.7, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1067.1, 1067.5, +2.3, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1070.7, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3942.0, -3.0
Long 2 TF 1064.6, 1064.6, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1062.7, 1061.6, -0.0, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1060.8, +2.8
Total NQ +18.25
Total TF +8.3

Tues Oct 7 Trade Summary

20141007
Long 2 NQ 3975.5, 3975.75, +5.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1079.9, 1080.9, -1.4, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1084.5, 1085.5, 1085.2, -0.0, +1.5, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1084.9, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 3986.5, 3986.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 3 NQ 3982.5, 3982.5, 3982.5, 3982.5, +2.0, +2.0, -2.0
Long 4 TF 1081.2, 1081.2, 1080.3, 1080.8, -0.0, -0.0, +1.5, +0.7
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +3.6

Mon Oct 6 Trades & Journal

20141006
Short 2 TF 1102.0, 1102.1, -0.4, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1102.7, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1101.7, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 4034.0, 4033.75, +2.0, +5.0
Long 2 TF 1097.3, 1097.0, +0.8, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1099.7, 1099.4, +0.7, -0.1
Long 1 YM 16932, +17
Short 1 YM 16962, +8
Long 2 TF 1092.1, 1092.6, +1.0, +0.6
Total YM +25
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +6.8

There are two questions we ask ourselves at the major opportunities of the 1st Frame. "Where was your head at the turn?" And, "where was your Trade Plan at the opportunity"? Today my head was ok, and did catch pretty much the basic entry models, but my Trade Plan missed most of the big fish opportunities. So it is with trading. The profits you miss usually bother you more than the losses you take. But no complaints...as today, the smaller profits did add up. Stay focused.

Fri Oct 3 Trades & Journal

20141003
Short 2 TF 1097.3, 1097.6, -0.8, +0.7
Short 2 YM 16841, 16840, -9, -10
Short 2 NQ 4009.25, 4008.00, +4.5, +2.5
Short 2 TF 1100.8, 1100.6, +0.7, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 4014.75, 4014.75, -3.0, -3.0
Long 2 TF 1102.0, 1102.0, +0.4, +0.9
Long 2 YM 16866, 15884, +7, -7
Long 2 TF 1101.0, 1101.0, 1100.7, +0.7, -0.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1099.6, 1099.7, +1.0, -0.2
Long 2 YM 16846, 16846, -7, -7
Long 2 TF 1098.3, 1098.3, +0.7, +2.6
Long 1 YM 16833, +20
Long 1 TF 1099.6, +2.0
Total YM -13
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +7.8

Using multiple time frames is science for some. It is not in my trade plan. I find trades in-trend in one time frame can be very profitable as counter trend trades in another, and have come to the conclusion that most of the money that is lost in the markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which trend the market was in...but wasn't. So instead, we position into Trade Entry Models that appear at the right edge of the video screen, and let the trend be discovered with us in it. But today, the buy signals from the daily frame would have served me better if I had respected them as some kind of filter and was more cautious about early shorts and more aggressive about 1st pump breakouts. As for now, I see no other than a subjective filter to place in the way, and those are seldom of any consistent value from day to day. So I only note all this as an observation and see no modification to Trade Plan at this time. Change the Plan slowly, cautiously, even reluctantly, although modify it you must. It doesn't earn the respect of discipline unless it remains a constant.

Thurs Oct 2 Trade Summary

20141002
Long 2 YM 16992, 16993, +7, +20
Long 2 TF 1082.7, 1082.9, -0.0, -0.0
Long 2 NQ 3971.75, 3971.75, +2.0, +7.0
Long 3 TF 1081.8, 1081.8, 1081.4, +1.0, +1.5, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1078.1, 1078.2, +1.0, +1.7
Total YM +27
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +5.9

Wed Oct 1 Trades & Journal

20141001
Long 2 TF 1089.3, 1089.0, -.5, +1.0
Long 3 NQ 4012.5, 4012.5, 4011.5, +2.0, -3.0, -2.0
Long 2 YM 16828, 16831, +10, +14
Short 1 TF 1088.2, +1.0
Long 2 YM 16795, 16797, +7, +20
Short 2 ES 1951.5, 1951.75, +1.25, -0.0
Short 1 YM 16821, +20
Long 1 TF 1085.4, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1089.8, -0.6
Total ES +1.25
Total NQ -3.0
Total YM +71
Total TF +2.2

A heavier reliance on YM entry models of late, partly due to the fuzzier, more whippy action of the TF as it overrides or fails to complete the entry models of the Trade Plan. This just reminds me the importance of
being ready to trade any of the 4 stock indices followed, included the least desirable of all, the ES. Next thing to consider in breakout models is adding in a version of the breakout model most recently added to the Plan. If it's a fair observation that price unfolds more quickly on the bear side than usually on the bull side, then breakout models that may need additional filtering in the bull side might break far more cleanly on the bear and must be weighed in if the daily trend of this market is indeed turning to the bear. Stay focused.

Tues Sep 30 Trades & Journal

20140930
Short 1 NQ 4042.25, +4.0
Long 1 YM 16067, +5
Long 2 TF 1106.3, 1106.3, +0.7, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1105.9, 1105.9, +0.7, -1.0
Long 3 NQ 4027.25, 4027.25, 4027.25, +2.0, -2.0, -3.0
Short 1 ES 1968.5, -1.5
Short 1 NQ 4039.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1107.0, 1107.2, +0.7, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1107.0, +2.2
Long 2 YM 16970, 16971, +29, +7
Total NQ -1.0
Total YM +41
Total TF +3.7

Today can at least post to journal that I took the breakout model that was having so much trouble acting upon in recent posts. Granted it was in the NQ, and a 1-lot at that, but at least can say I've nudged myself a bit further down the road to that behavior change. Behavior changes are slow. Trading is fast. Keep the plan in front of you. Rehearse your actions ahead of time. If this, then that.... Stay determined.

Mon Sep 29 Trades & Journal

20140929
Long 2 YM 16870, 16868, +17, +7
Short 1 NQ 4004.7, -1.0
Long 3 TF 1104.7, 1104.2, 1104.3, -0.0, +0.7, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 4022.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1108.8, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1110.0, 1110.3, 1110.1, -0.7, -0.5, -0.6
Short 3 YM 16931, 16931, 16931, +10, +10, +10
Short 2 TF 1113.6, 1113.7, +0.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1112.1, 1111.7, +1.0, +0.5
Total YM +54
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +1.7

For the fourth time in just the past few weeks, have failed to take a key breakout model in my Trade Plan. And today, added big to the pain by trying to fade that same breakout model, stubbornly unable to get my hat around to be in sync. Changing habits is not easy. And this particular model seems not to set off the important dinner bell whenever it approaches. The habit of fading into the thrust being far too ingrained into my trade behavior. This has to be fixed. In recent months, have successfully added one or two other breakout models into the Plan. And have continued taking them, even after occasional failure to produce profits. But this one requires more rehearsal, so I'll review again all the screen captures and go after more consideration and mental practice. Remain determined. Make the change. The market will never change for you. The only thing in life you can effectively change is yourself, no matter how tempting it is to think otherwise, no matter how hard change is to accomplish.

Fri Sep 26 Trade Summary

20140926
Short 1 TF 1108.8, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1105.9, 1106.5, +1.7, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1105.6, 1105.0, +1.6, +0.7
Total TF +6.2

Thurs Sep 25 Trades & Journal

20140925
Long 2 YM 17056, 17057, -6, -7
Long 3 TF 1114.2, 1114.2, 1114.0, -0.7, -1.0, +0.7
Long 3 NQ 4048.0, 4048.0, 4048.0, +2.0, -2.0, -2.0
Long 3 YM 17009, 17009, 17011, +7, -5, -6
Long 3 TF 1111.3, 1111.3, +0.7, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1110.3, 1110.3, 1110.5, +0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 YM 16998, 16998, 16999, -0, -0, -10
Long 2 TF 1108.2, 1108.2, 1108.4, +0.7, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4025.25, 4025.25, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 ES 1968.25, 1968.25, +2.0, -0.25
Long 2 TF 1101.6, 1101.6, +1.5, -0.0
Long 3 TF 1101.8, 1102.0, 1101.8, -0.2, +0.7, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1101.8, -0.5,
Long 1 TF 1101.7, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1106.4, -0.7
Short 1 ES 1967.75, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1107.3, 1107.1, +1.1, +1.5
Total YM -27
Total NQ -6.0
Total ES +5.75
Total TF +2.5

Taking partial off to pay for the trade is key to survival when trading against support levels in a falling market, especially when finding a bounce to short into doesn't show up til the noon hour. Today, however, I added back the 2nd unit after partially out, so confident from yesterday's bullish action that today's early plunge was just a short term set back, and that made most of those otherwise break-even trades into losers, as the bounces from support levels simply failed to materialize. Several YM and NQ positions didn't even afford a big enough bounce to partial out. Since days like this are the exception rather than the rule, it is important not to make them stand out in your P&L as big holes in your week or in your month. If your Trade Plan depends on bigger intraday swings to profit from, then you only have to keep it together on such vertical days until the larger swing days return, as they far outnumber the vertical bull or bear 1st Frames. Stay cool. Stay focused.

I did, however, again miss an important breakdown inflection level that would have put me into the early collapsing trend way ahead of any attempts at counter-trend trading it. And to my added frustration, was exactly the entry model I have castigated myself over missing several times just recently on other such days. Personal change is difficult. I have started a screen capture catalog of examples of this entry model in an effort to refine the filter and give the Trader in me the skill to recognize the model and the confidence necessary to execute. The Analyst has long been pointing it out. The Account remains in doubt, and the Trader, a bit slow on the take to be sure, needs more rehearsal before successful implementation can be expected. Get busy.

Wed Sep 24 Trades & Journal

20140924
Long 1 YM 16985, -7
Long 2 ES 1973.0, 1973.0, +1.5, +2.5
Short 2 TF 1114.6, 1114.7, +1.3, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1110.7, 1110.7 1110.4, +0.7, -0.8, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1109.7, 1110.1, +2.2, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1109.3, 1109.4, +1.5, +0.5
Total YM -7
Total ES +3.0
Total TF +6.4

The ideal in trading, as they say, is to be completely lacking in emotion. Like Andy Warhol's famous line, "I want to be a machine." You're supposed to be able to forget immediately about a bad trade and also a previous bad day. If neither have triggered some maximum loss allowable level set aside as part of the money management rules in your Trade Plan, then the next trade or next day should come as easily as the previous, even if in recovery from losses. But of course, we are not machines, and attempts to pretend so are futile. But we can apply good discipline to our trading and accept the situation where the recovery from a losing day gets us at least back in sync, even if there were further trading opportunities left on the table once those previous losses were recovered. And so it was I found myself exiting the last position taken in the TF, with all the requisite features of being the probable low of the decline, in order to exit safely with all the money back from yesterday's losing day, with a little to spare. At least that kept me from 2 losing days in a row, something that throws me back to the simulator, and helps return the confidence that is normally required to Trade the Plan. Stay focused.

Tues Sep 23 Trades & Journal

20140923
Short 3 TF 1123.2, 1123.8, 1124.3, -1.4, -0.8, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1124.7, 1124.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1125.5, 1125.5, -0.0, -0.2
Long 2 YM 17071, 17072, -5, -5
Long 1 TF 1126.1, -0.7
Total YM -10
Total TF -4.6

When your entry model is incomplete, or is conflicted by counter signals from other contracts or entry filters, it's best to just pass on the trade. But we are an arrogant lot, we humans. When after a winning streak of many days, we are just unwilling to think that pulling the trigger again despite such entry conflicts will produce anything but the expected profits. Today's signals were difficult using the means I usually employ, but I made a crucial mistake regarding the outcome of the early trend that not only could have been avoided but in reverse would have enjoyed participation. Study all your entries with care. The best lessons that come from trading are those that surprise you and cause you to lose. The improvement you seek is not in your winners. It's where you lose that hides the success and improvement you seek. Those technical 'situations' will return, as rare as they might have seemed at the time. Categorize and catalog them. Be ready for them when they return. All things that happen in the market are in context. Look for opposites. Most of the technical language of the markets can mean the opposite to its 'norm' when that context changes. The market teaches us the best places to trade from every day. Open your mind. Listen to the market. The market is its own authority on trend excursion and reversal. Each day its history is there in plain view, and so now are your assumptions and misunderstandings about it crystallized by every bad trade.

Mon Sep 22 Trades & Journal

20140922
Long 2 TF 1128.9, 1128.8, -0.5, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1127.5, 1127.5, 1127.9, +0.7, +2.0, +0.7
Long 1 NQ 4071.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4069.25, +8.0
Long 2 NQ 4065.5, 4065.75, +3.0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1126.6, 1125.6, -1.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1125.3, 1125.3, +1.4, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1125.4, -0.4
Long 1 YM 17143, -8
Long 1 NQ 4050.75, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1123.9, 1123.9, -0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1123.3, 1123.2, -0.3, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1123.3, 1123.3, +0.7, +0.7
Total YM -8
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +4.4

It would be better for us all if Fed Chairman would not schedule speeches for the 10am ET hour. If their info pre-released or even simultaneously released, market participation would at least be more fair. Otherwise, the comments can dribble out and extend the effects. In any case, sticking to the Trade Plan can help keep you out of trouble, but might require some wider stp's. One of the key elements to exaggerated whiplash volatility is the ability to re-enter a trade if the trade model is still intact after a whiplash event extends beyond stp's. It takes some stomach to re-enter, but observations lead me to conclude that the model will return to expected behavior with the whiplash action behind you. Stay focused. Show conviction to the Trade Entry Models in your Plan. If they don't deserve the conviction to re-enter a position after such whiplash action, they don't deserve to be included in your Trade Plan.

Fri Sep 19 Trades & Journal

20140919
Short 2 NQ 4108.75, 4108.5, +2.0, +3.0
Short 3 NQ 4109.5, 4910.0, 4109.5, +4.0, -0.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 4106.5, 4106.0, -1.25, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1154.4, 1154.6, -0.7, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1153.4, 1153.4, 1153.5, +0.7, -0.6, +0.7
Long 2 NQ 4100.00, 4100.0, +2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 4098.75, 4099.25, +2.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1149.8, 1149.9, -0.3, -0.0
Total NQ +16.25
Total TF +0.5

Breakouts in the TF were the key ingredient to the day's big bear trend, but those came mostly after the 1st frame, and against some extreme oversold momentum readings outside of current Trade Entry Model limits. If a real bear market is finally ensuing, then the stringent filters on bear breakdown levels might have to be lifted from entry models, as when big bears finally get started, they are brutal and persistent. Since the other contracts remained from committed initially, the NQ provided some reversals in resistance to the bearish action. But eventually, the come-lately NQ bullishness will give way, as all sectors and contracts will get in sync with a major trend. Many have called a premature end to this bull market, and I've called at least 3 of the last 1 bear markets myself... Stay focused. ...and a good weekend to all...


Sep 18 Trade Summary

20140918
Short 4 TF 1152.5, 1152.4, 1152.5, 1152.5, +0.7, +1.0, +1.0, +0.7
Short 2 YM 17135, 17136, -4, +5
short 2 NQ 4084.25, 4084.25, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1153.9, 1153.5, +0.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1151.6, +1.2
Total YM +1
Total NQ -4.0
Total TF +6.3

Wed Sep 17 Trade Summary

20140917
Long 2 YM 17864, 17864, -0, -0
Long 2 NQ 4059.75, 4060.0, +3.0, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1150.8, 1150.6, +0.5, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1151.3, 1151.5, +0.4, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 1162.5, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 1164.0, 1163.75, +2.0, +3.0
Total YM -0
Total NQ +10.00
Total TF +2.0

Tues Sep 16 Trades & Journal

20140916
Long 2 TF 1138.5, 1137.8, -0.0, +1.7
Short 2 TF 1140.8, 1140.8, -0.4, -0.4
Short 4 NQ 4024.5, 40.24.5, 4026.0, 40.26.0, -0.0, -0.0, +2.0, +4.0
Long 2 TF 1141.8, 1141.9, +0.7, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1141.1, 1140.9, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 NQ 4026.5, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1138.8, 1138.2, -1.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1137.7, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1136.5, 1136.4, +0.5, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 4019.5, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1135.8, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4017.0, 4017.0, +2.0, +7.0
Long 2 TF 1135.1, 1135.6, +1.4, -0.0
Total NQ +13.5
Total TF +3.2

Considering the large swings today in the TF, trading performance can only be said to be disappointing. Got chopped out of several breakouts that needed continued encouragement as newer additions to the Trade Plan, which adds to disappoint. Part of the problem was the nearly total focus on the TF, while the YM was providing perfect signals and without all the TF's whiplash action. NQ, however, was as nearly consistent, and pretty much saved my day. A final decision to let the default stop-loss distance stand on the last trades risked all the remaining TF profits and more, but did provide the solution to surviving the whiplash action at the TF turns. Stay focused. Don't ignore the other contracts even though the TF remains the object of choice. There's nothing wrong with trading the YM, the NQ or even the ES if necessary.

Mon Sep 15 Trade Summary

20140915
Long 5 TF 1146.2, 1146.2, 1146.4, 1146.0, 1146.3, +0.7, +0.7, -1.0, +1.0, -0.8
Long 3 NQ 4030.75, 4031.25, 40.32.0, +2.0, +4.0, -2.0
Long 2 ES 1970.75, 1970.5, -1.5, +1.5
Long 4 TF 1141.0, 1141.0, 1141.5, +0.7, +4.0, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1145.4, 1145.2, +0.7, +1.8
Total ES -0.0
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +8.5

Fri Sep 12 Trades & Journal

20140912
Short 1 TF 1167.4, +0.5
Long 1 NQ 4062.0, -2.0
Long 3 TF 1164.8, 1163.9, 1164.1, -0.0, +1.9, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1163.8, 1163.8, +0.5, +1.2
Short 2 NQ 4073.75, 4073.75, +2.0, +3.0
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +5.1

Contract rollover has become a bit of a curiosity. Once, when there was still a hugely active pit in SPOO's, as we called them, rollover was a quasi-religious event. The TF contract has nearly ignored the event once moving to the ICE from the CME, and now, the CME electronic contracts seem to be ignoring it a some themselves, with volume here on the 2nd day as good still in expiring Sep as is now in the new Dec. Whatever. I simply stayed with the Sep TF and went with the Dec CME's. Action was spotty regardless, but the signals were true nonetheless. Trade the Plan. ...and a good weekend to all...

Thur Sep 11 Trades & Journal

20140911
Long 2 NQ 4080.75, 4080.0, +1.5, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1160.5, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 YM 17013, 17013, -5, -5
Long 1 TF 1160.5, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 4086.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1163.3, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1163.8, 1163.7, -0.1, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1164.5, 1164.1, -0.0, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 4082.75, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1160.8, 1160.7, -0.5, +0.6
Long 2 ES 1986.25, 1986.25, +1.5, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1158.9, 1158.9, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4077.0, 4077.5, -1.0, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1166.0, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1166.7, 1166.6, +0.5, +1.1
Total ES +3.0
Total NQ +3.5
Total YM -10
Total TF +4.2

The lack of any economic reports is often a tell that the day might be choppy. It's not that fundamentals rule the trend. In fact, if anything, its just the opposite, but a lack of belief or purpose or commitment often means that short term swings among the indices are rife with divergence and bifurcation. One of the best trades today was a stp-n-rev into shorts in the NQ while going long in the TF. Instead of handling it according to plan, my NQ stp's were hit without reversing, and my TF longs were simply stopped out too tight. I got neither of those opportunities, and extended my trading to nearly the Noon hour looking for one last decent TF signal, having missed the whole 2nd TF ride back up. Some days are better for trading than others, but today, I think I'd have to simply say some days your response and decision time is better than on other days. And today was not one of my better days. Rehearse the plan mentally over every aberration your entry models can render. Be prepared to act from those established rehearsals. Be the Plan.

Wed Sep 10 Trade Summary

Trade Summary
20140910
Long 1 TF 1155.8, +1.2
Short 3 TF 1158.4, 1158.8, 1158.9, -0.0, +1.5, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1154.7, +1.0
Total TF +6.7

Tues Sep 9 Trade Summary

20140909
Short 3 TF 1165.3, 1165.5, 1166.3, -0.0, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 ES 1993.0, -0.0
Long 2 YM 17090, 17060, +19, +7
Long 1 TF 1161.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1161.1, 1160.9, +1.2, +0.5
Total ES -1.5
Total YM +26
Total TF +3.9

Mon Sep 8 Trades & Journal

20140908
Long 1 YM 17106, +17
Short 2 TF 1173.6, 1173.8, -0.3, +0.6
Short 1 TF 1173.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1172.1, -0.5,
Long 2 TF 1171.5, 1171.6, -0.5, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1170.9, +1.5
Long 3 TF 1169.0, 1169.0, 1168.6, +0.5, -0.7, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1168.3, 1168.3, +0.7, +1.7
Short 2 TF 1168.2, 1168.2, -0.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1171.4, 1171.9, -0.0, +1.5
Total YM +17
Total TF +4.9


Took two inflection breakout trades today, exactly as prescribed by the plan, and one of them in a place was repeatedly guilty for balking. Breakouts can be an essential element to the trade plan, and today, since I had exited the shorts from the high too early, those breakdown plays were essential in staying ahead of losses and capturing the larger trend of the morning. This required some quick stp-n-rev at critical levels, and without being alert to the possibilities in advance of their arrival, such entries would not have been possible. Stay focused .... even on Mondays... especially on Mondays.

Fri Sep 5 Trades & Journal

20140905
Long 3 TF 1160.5, 1160.7, 1160.0, +0.5, +0.7, +1.9
Short 2 TF 1165.8, 1165.7, -0.5, -0.6,
Short 2 TF 1166.6, 1166.5, +0.7, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1162.7, 1162.7, +0.7, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1162.4, +1.0,
Long 1 TF 1161.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1161.7, +0.8
Long 2 TF 1161.4, 1161.9, -0.4, +0.7
Long 1 YM 17010, +6
Short 1 TF 1159.8, +1.0
Long 1 YM 17000, +15
Long 1 TF 1158.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1157.9, +2.0
Total YM +21
Total TF +7.9

The important thing is seeing the trades coming in advance of their arrival. This is impossible without a well defined Trade Plan that has precise entry models. Otherwise, you are chasing trade entries after they've already arrived. Stay calm, consider the market from the point of view of 'what if', or 'if that, then this'. In that way,
you can avoid the aspect of being in a predictive mode. Let the market be what it wants. If falling further fulfills a model's criteria, then be prepared to act if it falls further. If a breakout at a prescribed level arrives with the proper filters, then set your entry stp's in advance. Stop-and-reverse plays are trickier. You must see both contingents in advance. If you have trouble doing this, as I often do, that suggests you have trouble in conceding that the market might go the expected distance, but in the OPPOSITE direction. Be careful of your trend assumptions, and remember the Douglas Premise: 'Most of the money lost in the markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which way the market was supposed to go.' ....a good weekend to all...

Thur Aug 4 Trade Summary

20140904
Short 1 ES 2003.00, -0.50
Short 3 TF 1177.8, 1177.8, 1177.6, +0.6, +1.0, +1.2
Total ES -0.50
Total TF +2.8

Limited screen time today because of personal biz appointments.

Wed Sep 3 Trades & Journal

20140903
Short 2 TF 1183.0, 1183.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1183.3, +0.7, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 4098.75, 4098.75, +2.0, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1182.7, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1183.1, -0.3,
Long 1 TF 1183.5, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1181.2, 1181.2, 1181.7, +0.5, +1.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1181.8, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1180.2, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1179.3, 1179.3, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1179.3, 1179.3, +0.7, +1.3
Total NQ +1.5
Total TF +3.6

Trend prejudice is a difficult thing to admit. And every basic book and beginner set of guidelines encourages you to use the trend as your mail filter criteria for taking trades. But does this definition of trend really serve you? 'Most the money lost in the markets is lost by traders who think they understand the trend'...to paraphrase the Douglas Premise. If nearly everyone attempts to trade by the trend, and nearly 90% of trading accounts close without making a profit, then perhaps that adage needs to be rethought a bit. Today I failed to follow plan and take a breakout trade in the TF because I thought I understood that trend....and it cost both in the money I didn't make in the breakout as well as that lost by trades taken too early before the breakout phase was done. Instead, focus on trading the price models that appear at the right edge of the video screen, and you will 'discover' the trend along with the ensuing price action. Stay disciplined. Show faith in the plan. Trade the plan and you'll be trading into the trends that matter for your time frame and risk allowance.

Tues Sep 2 Trades & Journal

20140902
Long 2 TF 1174.8, 1174.9, -0.6, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4085.5, 4085.0, +2.5, -1.25
Long 2 YM 17057, 17057, -4, -4
Short 5 TF 1178.3, 1178.1, 1179.0, 1178.4, 1178.4, +0.2, +0.5, +1.0, +0.3, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 4091.25, 4091.0, +2.0, -0.25
Short 2 YM 17077, 17078, -2, +7,
Short 2 YM 17095, 17095, +5, -6
Short 2 TF 1180.9, 1180.7, +0.5, +1.8
Long 1 TF 1178.2, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1176.1, 1176.1, -0.7, -0.7
Long 4 TF 1174.7, 1174.7. 1174.7, 1174.7, +0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5,
Long 3 TF 1173.3, 1173.3, 1173.3, +0.5, +0.8, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1171.8, 1171.6, +1.2, +0.5,
Short 1 TF 1173.8, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1175.4, +2.0
Total NQ +3.0
Total YM -4
Total TF +6.5

Trade action can 'condition' you to go to sleep. The day starts out a bit choppy. The four index contracts aren't tracking well. Signals are split, and it seems very much like you've entered another one of those listless, caught-in-the-doldrums trading days. But the market teaches us to look for opposites. How it behaves in the First Frame is what it comes out of in the Second. If volatile in the First, the second sleeps and grinds. If grinding and choppy in the First, then look out and get ready, because the Second Frame of the day could contain all the volatility you were looking for in the First, right when you least expect it. Today was just such as day, as good short signals finally showed up in the TF and NQ, only to shake me loose from them long before their respective excursions hit vertical air pockets of total collapse. I was thinking 'It's choppy, better nailed down these minimum profits' right when I should have been looking for opposites. Look for opposites. The Rule of Alternation describes not only wave and excursion length, but the style of price action as well. Let the feeling of being lulled into sleep be a warning bell in your head. The change can be dramatic.

Fir Aug 29 Trades & Journal

Trade Summary
20140829
Long 2 TF 1164.0, 1164.1, -0.5, -0.6
Long 3 TF 1163.7, 1163.7, 1163.8, +0.7, +0.7, +1.6
Long 2 NQ 4068.5, 4068.75, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1162.8, 1162.8, +0.7, +1.8
Short 2 TF 1164.9, 1164.6, +0.8, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1164.9, -0.1
Long 2 TF 1165.4, 1165.4, -0.0, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 40.67.75, -1.0
Long 2 NQ 4068.75, 4068.75, -0.0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1165.8, +1.4
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +6.5

Breakouts are an important part of any Trade Plan. But choosing the right ones can be a challenge. Remember: One key question to filter the model: is the impulse before you or behind you...? Today, at least can say was in the game, but with the slow grinding 2nd trend, I punted on size and stayed small on breakout positions...to the detriment of profits. Stay with the Plan. Keep practicing with breakout models. Allow confidence to grow with the subtlety of filter refinement. ...and a good weekend to all...

Thurs Aug 28 Trades & Journal

20140828
Short 2 NQ 4058.5, 4058.75, -1.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1161.4, +1.3
Short 1 NQ 4060.25, -1.25
Short 1 ES 1992.5, -1.0
Short 1 YM 17041, -1
Long 1 NQ 4060.75, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4060.75, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1163.1, 1163.1, +0.5, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1162.5, +1.0
Total ES +1.0
Total NQ +0.75
Total TF +4.3

Getting out too early is one of the worst traits in trading to suffer from. Often, it can be solved by having more contracts to simply parse out. But that requires greater initial risk, or greater initial confidence that the trade entry models identify the bigger intraday swings successfully. When price action is more choppy and less volatile, as is often the case in mid-August doldrums and other lower volume periods, confidence expressed by longer holding periods or bigger positions can simply generate more losses. But when this period subsides, I need to re examine how to capture more of the available excursions from the solid entry models now being employed. Stay disciplined.

Thurs Aug 27 Trade Summary

20140827
Long 2 TF 1171.5, 1171.5, +0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1170.8, 1171.0, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1170.6, 1170.6, +0.5, +1.3
Long 1 ES 1995.25, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1173.6, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1173.9, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 4069.75, 4071.0, -2.75, -1.5
Short 1 ES 1997.5, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1174.2, 1174.2, 1174.2, -0.0, -0.4, -0.3
Total ES +1.0
Total NQ -4.25
Total TF +0.1

Tues Aug 26 Trades & Journal

20140826
Long 1 TF 1164.2, +1.0
Short 3 NQ 4069.0, 4068.75, 4069.5, +1.5, -2.25, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1167.2, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1168.5, 1168.4, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1168.6, 1168.9, -0.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1169.4, 1169.4, -0.2, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1169.8, 1169.8. -0.0, +1.5
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +1.8

Persistent Trend Days are usually the most challenging... especially when the trend does more grind than swing. Today, I recognized where the best chances for the more impulsive aspect of the trend to begin correctly, but one of those failed with a stp-out, weakening my constitution to hold a 2nd contract position when the latter instance appeared. In other words, I let a previous loss invade the next trade position. As long as you are not 'revenge' trading, you have to let go of a previous loss and take the next signal cleanly, and then deal with it according to your management plan quite on its own. Give the Trader voice. His most insistent and persistent vocalization is the basic question the Trade Plan demands: "Has the model arrived?" ...and, "Is the model still intact?" If it is, then wipe the little nose-bleed from your wounded psyche, stay in the ring and counter-punch the next blow. Trading is more than a little like boxing. Sometimes it actually requires taking a hit to open your eyes into a winning position. Learn to love your losses. Let them be a pathway to your success.

Mon Aug 25 Trades & Journal

20140825
Long 2 NQ 4071.0, 4071.0, +2.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1164.6, 1164.8, -0.8, +0.7,
Long 2 TF 1165.8, 1165.8, +0.5, +2.0
Short 3 TF 1167.2, 1167.0, 1167.4, -0.7, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 ES 1997.0, 1997.0, +0.25, -1.0
Short 1 ES 1197.25, +1.75
Long 2 NQ 4071.75, 4071.5, -0.5, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 4071.0, +2.0
Short 2 ES 1997.75, 1998.25, -1.25, -0.75
Short 2 NQ 4077.5, 4077.5, -0.75, -0.75
Short 2 NQ 4077.5, 4077.75, +1.5, +3.0
Long 2 NQ 4073.5, 4073.5, +1.5, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1167.4, 1167.0, -0.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1164.3, 1154.5, +0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1164.1, 1163.9, -0.6, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1162.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1160.9, 1161.0, +0.5, -0.6
Total ES -1.0
Total NQ +13
Total TF -1.0

As the TF trend action was Yang-Yin (the 1st Frame is consolidation leading to the more usual 1st Frame trend taking place in the 2nd Frame, I allowed myself trading into the 2nd Frame. However, I was filtered out by Plan from breakout shorts on the way down, and was left with trying to find the turn. Not satisfying. Believe it is worth re-examining those filters against shorts in that situation as I have been left on sidelines before as similar impulse trends develop, unable to act. Today, I think the Plan failed me more than I it. Plans should only change slowly, but I'll add today's technical factors to the study list. Stay focused.

Fri Aug 22 Trades & Journal

20140822
Short 2 TF 1153.7, 1154.1, -0.0, +0.9
Long 1 YM 16995, +25
Short 1 TF 1153.6, -0.2
Short 2 NQ 4048.5, 4048.5, +2.0, +5.0
Short 2 TF 1175.4, 1157.4, -0.7, -0.7
Short 4 TF 1158.6, 1158.6, 1158.5, 1158.3, +0.7, +0.7, +0.7, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1156.1, 1156.3, +1.3, +0.5
ToTal YM +25
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +4.2

We dont' trade the news. We trade structure and volatility, when those aspects fulfill certain technical qualifications. Yellen may speak. She may shout. She may even yell. But we don't care as traders what she says. We are, however, grateful for the injection of adrenaline she and other Fed Chairman bring to the markets. That it is said by journalists that her news causes the markets to move does not, in fact, change the way the market fulfills the rules to its own internal structuring. That, she cannot change ever. Create a Trade Plan around these market models. Trade the models, not the news. This is our discipline. ....and a good weekend to all.

Thurs Aug 21 Trades & Journal

20140821
Short 2 YM 16975, 16975, -4, -5
Short 2 YM 16987, 16987, -7, -7
Long 2 NQ 4043.5, 4043.5, +2.0, +3.0
Short 2 TF 1153.2, 1153.1, +2.7, +2.0
Short 2 YM 17005, 17005, +7, +22
Short 2 TF 1150.2, 1150.2, +2.0, +2.5
Long 1 TF 1145.7, -0.4
Long 2 YM 16985, 16983, -6, -4
Total NQ +5.0
Total YM -4
Total TF +8.8

Trading around the news, and especially positioning in front of it, does not mean you are predicting the news. Never can the news be predicted. But because the market is bound to fill out its destined structure, you can trade your plan and enter when that structure fulfills a Trade Entry Model from your plan. Today, two such entry models appeared in the TF. One just before the beloved Philly Fed number release, and then another a short time
afterwards. Trade your plan. The news itself is nothing but confusion. Leave its interpretation to the talking heads on CNBC and Bloomberg. Whether they can admit to it or not, they temper their comments based on how the news sees it anyway, foolishly thinking traders actually analyse it for economic content before they make short term decisions in the pits. Don't try to make decisions based on its content. Instead, study how the herd has positioned itself just prior and just after the news comes out. Trade what you see. Be the Trader.

Tues Aug 19 Trades & Journal

20140819
Long 2 NQ 4024.0, 40.24.25, +2.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1158.5, 1158.6, +1.2, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1159.6, -.2
Short 1 TF 1159.6, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1159.8, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1160.2, +0.7, +0.3
Short 2 TF 1161.3, 1161.3, -0.8, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1162.6, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1160.6, 1160.6, -0.5, -0.5
Short 1 ES 1975.25, -1.0
Short 1 YM 16868, -5
Short 2 YM 16877, +5, -2
Total YM -2
Total ES -1.0
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF -1.0

Pretty much stuck to plan today. Just got chopped around. Losing days are expected. Just try to avoid digging a big hole to dig out of later in the week... Stay focused.

Mon Aug 18 Trades & Journal

20140818
Short 2 YM 16731, 16731, -5, -5
Long 3 TF 1147.5, 1147.4, 1147.3, +1.0, +0.7, +0.7,
Short 2 YM 16734, 16736, -4, -2
Short 1 YM 16761, -7
Short 2 TF 1150,3, 1150.2, +0.7, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1151.3, 1151.4, -0.4, +0.1
Short 1 TF 1151.4, -0.4
Long 1 NQ 4010.25, +4.0
Long 2 TF 1151.9, 1151.9, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1153.0, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1155.2, +1.5
Total YM -23
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +7.0

There is such a strong temptation to judge exits on the character of price action, as to whether its choppy or whippy, impulsive or grinding, etc. But these judgements are really just a form of tape reading and are usually misleading as to the depth of any trend or pullback. Today, I lost patience with bull breakouts and didn't therefore enjoy the full excursions long into sell signals when there was really no other compelling reason to have exited but for the slow, grinding character of the action. But I know Second Trends have hidden surprises, I just let the action spook me. Don't let the price action spook you when more meaningful signals are flashing all around you. Let your position work. Position yourself to be surprised. Be disciplined.

Fri Aug 15 Trades & Journal

20140815
Short 1 ES 1958.5, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1146.5, 1146.5, +0.4, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1146.7 1146.4, -0.7, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 3987.75, -1.25
Short 2 YM 16725, 16725, -7, -7
Short 2 TF 1147.0, 1147.0 -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1147.4, 1147.8, 1147.6, +0.5,-0.6, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1148.9, 1148.8, +0.7, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1149.3, -0.7
Long 1 YM 16529, -7
Short 1 ES 1960.25, +2.0
Long 2 YM 16719, 16714, -10, -4
Long 2 YM 16698, 16698, +10, -4
Long 2 ES 1953.75, 1953.75, -1.0, -1.0
Long 2 ES 1951.75, 1951.75, -1.0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1139.6, 1139.6, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1136.2, 1136.2, 1136.2, +2.0,. +2.0, +4.0
Total ES -0.0
Total YM -15
Total NQ -1.25
Total TF +3.6

There is a normal Ying-Yang to the volatility of the day. The 1st frame usually gets the volatility, the Midday frame gets the grind and drift. But occasionally, that flips around and then it's Yang-Ying. When this occurs, you can spend down your day's quota in losses before the best trades show up, and so it was today for me that I had just hit a daily loss quota when some important reversal signals appeared after a sudden collapse. But had no further signal appeared, I would have had to rely on a lot of self discipline to accept a moderately losing day, and a nice string of winners. Preservation of capital is key to consistency. A losing day can be overcome when consistency returns, and most market patterns and fractals do not look like that of today. Today, although I didn't trade past my loss quota before profits showed up, I did trade past my total trades taken limit. I rationalized that since so many were small losses, and I had 4 pts in ES profits as some cushion, it didn't matter. But small losses add up too. Keep your eye on the whole game. A few broken rules here and there, and a temptation to throw the whole discipline out can creep in. Stay focused. Stay in for the long haul. On most days like this, the profits you missed are usually more annoying than the losses you took, unless those losses exceed your daily loss limit. Keep an eye on that limit. Maintain that discipline. Live to trade another day.

Thurs Aug 14 Trades & Journal

20140814
Long 1 TF 1141.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1141.3, 1141.3, +.7, +.7
Long 2 NQ 3948.5, 39.48.25, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1140.3, +1.2
Long 2 YM 16620, 16621, +5, +1
Short 2 TF 1139.5, 1139.9, -0.7, -0.5
Short 1 YM 16631, -7
Short 1 ES 1946.75, -1.5
Short 3 TF 1140.6, 1140.6, 1140,5, +0.5, +1.0, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1141.7, 1141.6, +0.5, +1.0
Total NQ +6.0
Total ES -1.5
Total YM -1
Total TF +3.7


...some days are better for trading than others....

Wed Aug 13 Trades & Journal

20140813
Long 1 NQ 3921.5, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1134.5, 1134.4, +0.7, +1.2
Short 2 TF 1132.8, 1132.7, -0.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1132.6, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1132.7, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 3927.5, 3927.25, +2.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 3923.0, 3923.5, +2.0, +4.0
Short 2 NQ 3928.5, 3928.25, -2.00, -0.0
Short 3 NQ 3931.0, 3930.0, 3930.5, +2.0, -2.0, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1137.5, 1137.6, +1.0, +.07
Short 2 NQ 3934.0, 3934.0, -1.0, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1139.0, -0.0
Total NQ +8.25
Total TF +6.1

Balked at another breakout trade today. And since a pair of signals came in immediate succession, the first one failing to produce actually made the second one all the more likely to succeed... and yet I still balked and failed to take it. The more successful breakouts tend to arrive in disbelief, and yet "most of the opportunity that is missed in the markets is missed by traders who couldn't concede that the market could go the expected distance, but in the opposite direction". This is the nature of the market. Use the measure of your own disbelief that price can't possibly succeed in going further into a trigger to take the trade anyway. The peaking momentum is only a sign that price will soon peak itself in mimicry to the momentum, not a warning that the market has already peaked. As price follows momentum, the market is far more likely to peak after momentum, giving the breakout the surprising impulse needed to make the trade a success. Wait til an actual price impulse spike is behind you to expect the momentum to have an affect. Use the Rule of Alternation to full advantage. If the model is in place, take the trade, your disbelief in the trade's potential notwithstanding.

Tues Aug 12 Trades & Journal

20140812
Short 2 NQ 3912.25, 3912.0, +2.0, +6.0
Short 1 TF 1139.6, +2.0
Long 2 YM 16506, 16506, +7, +15
Long 1 NQ 3900.75, -1.5
Short 1 NQ 3899.25, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1134.6, 1134.5, -0.5, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1133.6, 1133.9, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1130.4, 1130.4, +0.7, +2.0
Total YM +22
Total NQ +4.5
Total TF +4.9

For both these past two days, I ducked an in-trend breakout because the special momentum indicator was flashing a warning level. But a warning level is not a true block to filter out the entry model as it crosses the 'tracks', it's a warning that the end-of-trend could be nearing. And when it comes to momentum, the last few readings left in the momentum indicator itself can be accompanied by the final price spike in an impulse trend that reached a climatic extreme, accounting for far more price in that final spike than perhaps would be expected by such a small final move in the momentum indicator. Thus it is how nearly parabolic moves come to an end. This is not a new aspect to trade entry model specifications. More accurately, I have used the warning aspect of the momentum indicator as an excuse to balk at taking the breakout, which is a tendency I've long wanted to control in order to participate better with these breakouts when the entry model signifies go otherwise. In other words, I use the excuse that my trade model was failing me when it was really me that was keeping my trade model vague on purpose, in order to avoid taking the breakout play. Let's wash this out. Breakouts can take some faith, granted, but overcoming the apprehension surrounding them would markedly improve my trading. Polish the plan. Acknowledge the adjustment. Be determined to act.

Mon Aug 11 Trade Summary

20140811
Short 2 TF 1133.1, 1133.4, -0.1, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 3999.75, 3999.0, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1131.7, +1.2
Short 2 TF 1133.3, 1133.5, -0.6, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 3999.0, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1135.5, 1136.5, -0.0, -0.3
Short 2 NQ 3908.25, 3908.5, -1.25, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 3909.0, +5.0
Short 2 TF 1141.1, 1141.0, -0.3, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1141.9, 1141.7, +0.7, +2.0
Total NQ +7.25
Total TF +5.8

Fri Aug 8 Trade Summary

20140808
Long 2 YM 16319, 16319, -5, -5
Long 2 YM 16314, 16314, +10, +15
Short 3 TF 1117.0, 1117.5, 1117.6, -0.1, -0.4, -0.5
Short 3 YM 16350, 16350, 16351, +7, +7, -5
Short 1 TF 1120.5, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1120.4, 1120.4, +0.7, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1122.3, 1122.3, +0.7, +1.6
Short 1 TF 1121.9, +1.5
Total YM +15
Total TF +7.0

Thur Aug 7 Trades & Journal

20140807
Short 2 TF 1125.6, 1125.6, +0.7, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1126.2, +1.0
Long 2 ES 1920.5, 1920.25, +1.0, -1.25
Long 2 NQ 3878.75, 3875.5, +4.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1129.9, 1129.8, +0.7, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1125.1, 1125.3, +0.7, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1124.9, 1124.9, +0.7, +1.2
Long 2 YM 16412, 16412, -5, -5
Long 2 YM 16402, 16402, +10, -1, -1
Long 2 YM 16384, 16384, -5, -5
Long 2 NQ 3869.5, 3869.25, +2.0, +8.0
Long 2 TF 1120.2, 1120.0, -.7, -.5
Long 2 NQ 3870.5, 3870.75, +2.0, -1.5
Long 2 YM 16350, 16350, +7, +13
Long 1 TF 1115.9, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1115.7, +2.0
Total ES -0.25
Total YM +8
Total NQ +16.5
Total TF +10.0

Adages and truisms are easy to quote. But the "Ten Rules of Trading You Should Never Violate" is like a tome of how-to for thinking outside the box. Today was a perfect example. Early going in the TF provided great two-sided trading... enough to have made a reasonable trade quota before the TF had even succeeded in leaving the attraction of the ORB. But at the lows, after it broke, the momentum indicators were cautioning against selling further breakdowns, and indeed, anyone who might have taken them would have been hooked short on most breaks while the bulls who faded them enjoyed swooning balloons of profits upward. "Never buy a new Low" is just one of those ten rules, and I remain so pleased that those who adhere to it are crowding me out of buying those lows when exacting trade entry models are fulfilled by them. Stay disciplined. Trade according to a rule book written by the market itself. The market tells you where and how to buy everyday. Shut up and listen. ...and I'll continue to take my rules from the wisdom of Heraclitus. "Fools, although they hear, are like the deaf." When it comes to trading, don't turn a deaf ear to what the market is teaching you. There are times to counter-trade and times to enter into breakouts. Just stop and listen to the market. Each day an internal structure to its opportunities is on full display to anyone who can take the ten rules of trading from what the market itself can teach you, and nowhere else.

Wed Aug 6 Trade Summary

20140806
Short 1 TF 1112.7, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1112.4, -0.6
Short 2 ES 1910.5, 1912.0, -2.5, -1.25
Short 3 TF 1117.8, 1117.8, 1117.8, +1.2, -0.6, -0.6
Short 2 NQ 3863.0, 3863.0, -2.0, -2.0
Short 4 NQ 3864.25, 3864.5, 3864.5, 3864.0, +5.0, +2.0, +7.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1118.6, 1118.7, +1.2, +1.3
Short 3 NQ 3867.5, 3867.0, 3867.5, +2.0, -2.5, -2.5
Short 3 TF 1122.9, 1122.9, 1123.2, +0.7, +0.7, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 3864.0, +3.0
Total ES -3.75
Total NQ +12.0
Total TF +6.2

Tues Aug 5 Trades & Journal

20140805
Short 1 NQ 3884.75, -2.5
Long 2 YM 16456, 16452, -6, +7
Long 2 NQ 3883.00, 3883.25, +2.0, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1118.3, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1113.8, 1113.7, +2.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1114.8, +2.0
Total NQ -2.5
Total YM +1
Total TF +6.7

It pays to have all four contracts, ES, YM, NQ and TF in plain site in prime monitor real estate at all times. Today, an important trade came for the TF, without a signal itself, by borrowing the simultaneous signals appearing in all three of the others. TF is contract of choice. It's the Goldie Locks of volume and volatility for the futures trader. And acquiring signals by the confluence of other technical concepts to trade it is by far the greatest joy of my long career as a futures trader. Stay focused.

Mon Aug 4 Trades & Journal

20140804
Long 2 YM 16425, 16425, +5, +15
Long 1 TF 1113.5, +1.5
Short 2 YM 16450, 16450, +7, +10
Long 2 NQ 3889.5, 3889.0, -2.0, +2.0
Long 1 YM 16436, +15
Short 2 TF 1117.2, 1117.2, +0.5, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1110.7, +1.4
Long 1 YM 16417, -5
Long 1 TF 1108.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1107.7, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1107.4, +1.2
Total NQ -0.0
Total YM +47
Total TF +6.0

The best trades are always a combination of momentum, fractal structure and price level. Leave out any one of those, the risks increase that the trade will fail. Balk at taking multiple contract position when they all appear in confluence as signals, then risk not being able to profit from the best trades of the frame, leaving you the impulse to take other trades of lessor signal strength. Today, on a breakdown play well within the parameters of all 3 technical aspects, I took a 1-lot position when I should have taken 2. ...but at least I'll acknowledge some improvement for having taken the breakdown play in the first place, as aspect of my trading long in need of serious improvement. Stay focused on what needs to change. Note the opportunities that correspond to these changes. Take the trades until they become habits. Your fate as the Trader is built on better habits.

Fri Aug 1 Trade Summary

20140801
Short 1 TF 1117.0, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1116.9, -0.3
Short 3 NQ 3895.0, 3895.5, 3895.25, +2.0, +5.0, +4.0
Long 3 TF 1118.5, 1118.5, 1118.4, +0.7, +2.0, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1113.1, 1113.1, -0.6, -0.6
Long 2 NQ 3879.5, 3879.5, +2.0, +5.0
Total NQ +18.00
Total TF +1.5

Thur Jul 31 Trades & Journal

20140731
Short 1 TF 1133.1, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1132.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1133.2, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1134.2, 1133.8, +2.5, +0.7
Short 1 ES 1949.5, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1126.9, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1126.1, +1.0
Total ES +4.0
Total TF +3.8

The action of a big bear move after a big opening gap can be a little confusing. The initial choppiness seems a tug-a-war between the ensuing trend and the immediate oversold condition such gaps produce. That can make breakdown triggers less inviting, and today, I let those feelings about the action deter me from the better trades. When the big bear comes... and eventually it will... Risks in taking more of the breakdown triggers that action might be choppy must be endured. For those breakdown triggers that do appear within the Trade Plan, have confidence. They're no riskier than the bounces and far less risky than fading the unraveling price decline. Come the market prepared to act decisively. Trade the Plan, not the action.

Wed Jul 30 Trades & Journal

20140730
Short 1 TF 1147.4, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1145.5, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1146.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1147.9, +4.0
Long 2 TF 1142.1, 1142.1, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1141.7, 1141.7, 1142.0, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Short 1 ES 1967.25, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1144.8, 1144.6, +3.0, +1.5
Total ES +1.50
Total TF +9.0


Many FOMC days are dead ducks going into the news, but seems today the anticipation WAS the game, or at least is my impression as I wrap up the 1st Frame trading. Mostly stuck to plan today, but have to be grateful for catching a 2nd big down draft after losing almost all of the profits of the 1st big 4 pt short earlier on. Whatever made me try so hard to get positioned at exactly the wrong place to be long is worth some further reflection, and I need to revisit those moments in quiet mode for a few minutes to remember where my head was at that potential turn that failed... The best source of trade improvement is in your own trade history. "What were you thinking at the turn?" is a question worth repeating as an exercise each day. There's so much rich wisdom to be garnered from your decisions. Or in the words of the wise sage Heraclitus, "I searched myself."

Tues Jul 29 Trades & Journal

20140729
Short 2 NQ 3967.0, 3967.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 2 YM 16936, 16938, +13, +6,
Short 1 TF 1139.3, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1140.6, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1141.6, 1141.6, +0.7, +0.6
Long 1 NQ 3970.75, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1141.2, +1.6
Short 2 TF 1144.7, 1145.0, +1.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1146.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1145.7, +0.7
Total NQ +3.0
Total YM +19
Total TF +4.8


One of the most difficult aspects of taking breakouts is the consideration given to the resistance or support price faces just upon breakout. Why get involved in a position that is about to hit a wall? But often, price dances around just shy of that same support/resistance number with a bit of complexity in wave structure that can serve as a 'pre-breakout' pause pattern. This concept can serve as a sort of setting stone for price to get better footing on, as if it needed a fulcrum for better leverage. I past on such a breakout today that should have been in my Trade Plan except for the fact that I had just hit my minimum quota as the 1st Frame was coming to an end. That's not a bad practice to quit at such times, but does come in conflict with another market behaviorism that I have failed to take advantage of a lot, and mentioned it just the other day here in the journal: that of missing a larger potential turn just as the market comes out of the 1st Frame. I don't have a firm resolution to this quandary as of just yet, but will continue to cite it here in the journal and perhaps reach a better conclusion as to how to proceed in such cases.... a last trade before the final wire versus a trade opp that although involves a breakout, could be coming at a major swing point in the day. Resolving this conflict should come in the form of a rule. Once in play, rules tend to eliminate thinking. No thinking allowed while trading.... Stay disciplined. Stick to a plan. Make the Trade Plan clear enough to follow in most all market circumstances.

Mon Jul 28 Trades & Journal

20140728
Long 2 TF 1135.5, 1135.5, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1132.7, 1132.7, +0.7, +2.6
Short 1 TF 1132.1, -0.5
Long 1 ES 1963.75, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1131.5, -0.6
Long 2 TF 1129.7, 1129.7, -0.6, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1128.9, 1128.9, +0.7, -0.0
Long 2 ES 1962.0, 1962.0, +1.75, +1.25
Short 2 TF 1127.9, 1127.9, +0.7, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1132.4, 1132.4, +0.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1131.9, +2.0
Total ES +1.75
Total TF +6.3

Had little trepidation about taking breakouts today on the way down....only the lack the emotion that often makes me balk at these did little to help the choppy conditions. And befitting the usual laws of the universe, I gave up taking the breakdown signals just at the point where I should have tried once more. Still, I have to feel encouraged that I was able to take them fairly easily today and hope this behavior can become more habitual when such breakout models appear that match my plan again in the trading days ahead.

Fri Jul 25 No Trades, vacation day

Thurs Jul 24 Trade Summary

20140724
Long 1 YM 17030, -1
Long 1 TF 1156.7, +1.4
Short 1 YM 17052, -5
Short 2 YM 17051, 17054, +7, +20
Long 1 TF 1156.9, -0.5
Long 2 YM 17028, 17023, +5, -6
Long 3 TF 1153.6, 1153.7, 1153.1, +1.0, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1154.1, +1.0
Total YM +20
Total TF +5.6

Wed Jul 23 Trade Summary

20140723
Short 1 NQ 3967.0, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 3966.0, -1.0
Long 2 YM 16995, 16995, +7, +26
Short 2 NQ 3672.0, 3670.75, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3667.25, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1156.0, 1155.9, +0.5, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1157.5, -0.0
Total YM +33
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +1.7

Tues Jul 22 Trades & Journal

20140722
Short 2 YM 17031, 17029, -4, -5
Short 2 TF 1153.0, 1153.0, +0.7, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 3951.75, -2.0
Short 3 TF 1154.0, 1153.8, 1154.2, +1.0, -0.0, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1154.6, -0.5
Short 1 YM 17062, +9
Short 2 TF 1155.5, 1155.3, -0.7, -0.0
Long 2 YM 17055, 17055, +7, -2
Long 2 YM 17043, 17043, +5, +10
Total YM +20
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +3.0

The end of the first frame is arbitrarily defined as 11:15am ET. ....and at least that's how I've observed it all these many years. There are no bells rung on the floor, no hand signals from the pit, no announcement from the exchanges nor econ reports scheduled from the Federal Budget offices. And yet, around 11:15am, the action usually seems to change. If the day has been dull, it may finally begin to show a trend, if impulsive and volatile in the early going, it may roll-over and take a nap. It's a self-imposed limit to only trade the 1st Frame of the day, one which I established after uncovering the fractal study we named Serial Sequent. But it was not my intention to use the impending end-of-frame time to get weak about taking another trade when the day's profits were of still slightly shy of quota. That comes from an unwillingness to give up at least a modest profit in pursuit of a full daily goal. But the last signal of this frame is often one of the best on an otherwise listless day, and balking at its appearance so often lately seems to me to be now a behavior pattern and a growing bad habit. Consider the last trade of the day on its own merits. Reckon its outcome as part of the business of the day, regardless whether it diminishes a modest day, or achieves the full quota. Make the time limit more important than the dollar goal, and use the time limit to its fullest opportunity. This change might clear my head of being afraid to lose on that last trade for fear of making a mediocre day more so, and take advantage of the full frame's best opportunities until the time limit for trading has actually come to an end. Stay focused.

Mon Jul 21 Trades and Journal

20140721
Short 2 TF 1138.9, 1138.9, +0.4, +1.4
Short 3 TF 1143.2, 1143.6, 1144.0, -0.0, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1140.2, +1.2
Long 2 YM 16942, 16942, +7, +15
Long 2 TF 1138.6, 1138.8, +1.0, +0.5
Total YM +22
Total TF +7.2

We often think of trading as either long or short. But flat is a position too. And at times, when signals are in conflict, just passing on them can be the most profitable position of the day. Stay focused.

Fri Jul 18 Trades & Journal

20140718
Long 2 TF 1132.9, 1132.8, -.6, -.4
Long 1 TF 1132.2, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1132.4, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1136.6, 1136.5, -0.3, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1136.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1136.8, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1137.8, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1138.5, 1138.4, +1.7, +0.7
Short 3 NQ 3910.25, 3911.0, 3910.0, -1.25, +1.5, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1143.2, +1.5
Total NQ +1.75
Total TF +4.7

A journal is designed for constructive self-critique, and as such, those trading aspects that have been mastered tend to go unmentioned and certainly without self-applause. But working with a student yesterday reminded me how much of my own trading habits are now taken for granted. Take the aspect of the initial exit of a partial position, for instance, or simply a 1 lot position. There is little management of a 1-lot position. Attempts to make all 1-lot positions taken in the 1st Frame of day into runner's is going to be a sorely disappointing process. Nevertheless, many a beginning trader will display the same behavior in the exiting of this 1-lot whether consciously deciding to treat it like a runner or not. Far better than to depend on a trailing stp-loss order to exit at the best profit consistently is to exit the market into the action in the direction of the trade taken. This can be done by leading the market with a limit order at some concept-based level of support or resistance the ensuing action has yet to face, or simply taking advantage of a volatile swoon in the direction of your trade as a nearby wave is broken and advanced. Let the position go into the action, instead of waiting for it to come back in your face. When trading 1-lots or exiting a partial position, this is almost always more favorable than letting your trailing stp-loss be hit. Get focused on the prescribed changes to your behavior noted in your journal. And then change your habits accordingly with practice. This is your new discipline. Repeat until you own it. Then maintain it as your success depends.