Thur Mar 31 Trade Summary

20160331
Short 1 TF 1108.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1107.5, 1107.6, 1107.5, +1.0, +2.0, +0.5
Total TF +3.0

Wed Mar 30 Trade Summary

20160330
Short 1 YM 17883, -0
Long 1 TF 1109.6, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1109.4, +1.1
Short 2 NQ 4507.75, 4508.50, +4.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1108.9, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1110.5, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1112.0, 1112.1, +3.0, +0.7
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +2.6

All the textbooks and talking head guru's say 'the trend is your friend'. But nothing is more detrimental to the trader than trend prejudice. A trader has to stick to technical models, and await them patiently to appear at the right edge of the video screen, often despite his trend opinion. This is just the opposite of tape reading, intuition, trading market action, etc. And to make it even more tempting to tape read, sometimes a trader's entry models don't actually reacyh fruition before the turn or the breakout takes place. ...and you're left on the sidelines muttering that misleading and defeatist remark "I knew that would happen...". This is just how traders lose money. They bring that 'I knew that would happen' attitude to the market at some other juncture or even on the following day...and have a losing day with it. Have a Trade Plan. Stick with it. You don't know what the market is going to do next. Wait for your opportunities to gel. Don't break your discipline and your good habits that are not producing well today to overcome the opportunities you are so apparently missing. Some days are better for trading than others.... Tomorrow is another day, but not if you've lost 2 days in a row, and you're now forced to trade on the simulator.....

Tues Mar 29 Trade Summary

20160329
Long 1 NQ, 4375.25, +10.0
Short 1 TF 1075.9, -0.2,
Short 2 TF 1077.3, +.7, +1.1
Long 1 TF 1075.3, +1.4
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +3.0

Mon Mar 28 Trade Summary

20160328
Long 1 NQ 4367.5, -3.0
Long 2 NQ 8384.0, 8382.5, +8.0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1072.6, +1.8
Long 1 TF 1073.4, +1.3
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +3.1

Thurs Mar 24 Trades & Journal

20160324
Short 2 NQ 4382.5, 4382.5, +2.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1064.4, +2.2
Short 1 TF 1063.5, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1064.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1065.1, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1066.9, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1069.6, 1069.8, +1.4, +0.5
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +5.3


2nd Trend's are where lie the surprises, especially on a day following a Persistent Trend Day Down in the typical Day Model rotation cycle. In fact, so much so a 2nd Trend can grind through short signsls on such a day that it can be fairly said that all 1st Trend fades are, in fact, in-trend entries rather than counter trend trades. Accordingly, keep a cool head when fading the 2nd Trend. Action will usually disguise the underlying and emerging true-trend, and thus trap tape readers and 'price-action' traders by lulling them towards the Song of the Sirens. This is how such swing reversals are fed. They climb on the backs of disbelieving shorts.

Wed Mar 23 Trade Summary

20160323
Long 1 YM 17438, -10
Long 2 YM 17429, 17430, +15, +17
Long 2 TF 1082.0, 1082.3, +1.0, +0.7
Short 1 NQ 4415.0, -0.75
Long 1 TF 1077.7, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1077.8, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1077.1, +1.7
Total YM +22
Total NQ -0.75
Total TF +5.9

Tues Mar 22 Trades & Journal

20160322
Long 3 TF 1184.9, 1185.0, 1184.1, +2.0, +0.5, +1.8
Short 2 TF 1187.2, 1188.0, -0.2, +0.7
Short 3 TF 1188.0, 1189.0, 1189.4, -2.1, -1.0, -0.8
Short 3 TF 1190.1, 1190.1, 1190.1, +1.5, +1.5, +1.8
Total TF +5.6

When the normally leading contract (usually the TF) becomes the laggard, having telegraphed the rest of the world that a bear day is upon us, its reluctant bull action after reversing to 2nd Trend becomes a Song of the Sirens. Of course I can short this, you say to yourself. Anybody can see that the TF is an anchor today and bound to go back down. But 2nd Trends are tricky, and therein can lie the surprises, as your hopes are dashed upon the rocks as the emerging laggard bull becomes the eager come-lately playing catch-up. Over confidence often comes from one's delusions regarding the ability to 'read' the market price action. But '....most of the money that is lost in the markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which way the market was really trying to go...' (The Douglas Premise). Remember that the minute structure, aka 'price action', is always subordinate to Day Model, and many a woodsman has been lost in the forest unable to see the forest for the trees. Pay attention to the concept of WorkDone in the 1st Trend. Once accomplished, the 2nd Trend can build into momentum late in its stages, often exceeding all expectations, with the sound of the impending rocks drowned out by the pretty Song of the Sirens...the ego that says 'I know which way the market is really trying to go...and I'm going to prove it....no matter how much it costs me...'.

Mon Mar 21 Trade Summary

20160321
Short 1 TF 1198.5, +1.8
Short 1 TF 1198.5, +1.7
Long 1 YM 17460, +15
Long 1 TF 1191.6, +1.7
Total YM +15
Total TF +5.2

Frid Mar 18 Trade Summary

20160318
Short 1 TF 1094.1, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1096.4, +1.6
Total TF +3.0

Thur Mar 17 Trades & Journal

20160317
Long 1 TF 1163.0, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1165.2, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1165.8, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1167.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1168.2, 1168.0, +1.0, +0.7
Short 4 TF 1169.8, 1170.0, 1170.8, 1171.5, -1.4, -1.8, -0.0, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1173.6, 1173.3, +0.7, +2.0
Total +4.4

Nothing is worse than having executed the right trading habit the day before, and acknowledging it--then to commit a violation of that same principle the very next day. It's like reversing a lesson you thought you'd finally learned. But new habits are hard to form, and old ones not easily shaken. Today, that's exactly what I did. I let an entry model go by that would have put me in-trend, and participating in the eventual outcome, and then as if to punish myself--or get even with the market for punishing me--I faded a second trend as the momentum continued to demonstrate persistence. ...something I should know better by now than do...

Take a moment to reflect on the day's trades. Assess which were made within Trade Plan and best-habits, and which were not. Rehearse, rehearse, rehearse your behavior. ...and never relax the muscles of self discipline. It's like the paradox of golf. Focus your muscle memory on what it must do. Then relax so it can accomplish it.

Wed Mar 16 Trades & Journal

20160316
Long 1 TF 1160.0, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1160.1, 1160.2, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1063.9, +1.0
Total TF +5.7

It's not that you can ever know that the pullback opportunities will be better than the fade opportunities as the trading day gets started. It's rather that the former present themselves with enough model clarity for you to recognize them, and that your head is sufficiently clear of trend prejudice to act on them immediately that makes a morning of trend swings profitable. Keep your head clear. Trade from the right edge of your video screen when it matches the Technical Event Concepts described in your Trade Plan on your desktop. Each the day the market is different. Like a population of finger prints, no two are ever quite alike. ...and yet, with the right set of Event Models in your Trade Plan, you'll trade the same thing day after day after day after day.... Be the Plan, not your prejudice.

Tues Mar 15 Trade Summary

20160315
Long 3 TF 1066.4, 1165.1, 1165.4, -1.4, +1.0, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1164.2, 1164.3, +1.0, +2.2
Long 1 TF 1164.6, +1.0
Total TF +4.5

Mon Mar 14 Trade Summary

20160314
Short 2 TF 1078.8, 1079.1, +1.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1177.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1175.6, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1175.4, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1174.9, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1078.8, +1.3
Total TF +5.7

Fri Mar 11 Trade Summary

20160311
Long 1 TF 1068.0, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 4326.75, 4326.75, -0.0, -0.0
Short 2 NQ 4327.75, 4329.0, +6.0, +5.0
Short 2 TF 1070.0, 1070.0, +0.5, +2.2
Short 1 NQ 4326.5, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1072.0, 1072.6, -0.0, +1.1
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +3.1

Thur Mar 10 Trades & Journal

20160310
Short 1 NQ 4323.5, -3.0
Short 2 TF 1076.7, 1077.2, -0.0, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 4329.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1078.0, +1.0, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 4331.75, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1072.8, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1070.4, 1069.8, +1.0, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 4311.75, -3.0
Long 2 NQ 4208.5, 4208.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 4203.75. 4203.75, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 4197.0, 4197.0, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1066.1, 1066.2, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1064.9, 1064.9, 1064.9, +3.0, +4.0, +4.0
Long 2 NQ 4185.5, 4185.5, +8.0, +8.0
Total NQ -4.0
Total TF +10.5

Volatility can be your friend, but it can also kill you. Yesterday I found myself positioned for the mid morning collapse with shorts in ES and TF. Problem was, I had no idea that mini collapse was coming, and so got out with minimum profits and was left on the sidelines just watching as successive support levels were taken out in minutes. At the lows, could only find a buy signal in the YM, and was late to that, and failed to get in. A full recovery followed. Today, I nibbled at the NQ's better relative strength....all the way down, and accrued some unpleasant but just-manageable losses until a valid long entry model appeared in all four contracts simultaneously. That put me into 3 contracts, and the bounce was so sharp, that it was easy to trail a stop as default OCO targets were approached and met. When the bottom falls out suddenly, there's a tendency to consider that something bigger is afoot than mere technical selling. ....that the world is ended or a catastrophe is behind the market. Keep your head clear. It's just the market. It has its own internal logic and no attempts at explaining it with fundamental reasoning with ever produce anything of value to the Trader. Only the Accountant believes in such things. He's of the school of Graham & Dodd. When technical opportunities appear at the right edge of the video screen, those are the only realities of any value. Grab the opportunity and milk it for what it's worth. The bigger the plunge, the bigger the bounce once the signals are in place. And you know when to go all in when the signals appear simultaneously across all four contracts.

Wed Mar 9 Trade Summary

20160309
Short 2 NQ 4272.5, 4272.75, +4.0, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1069.7, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1068.8, -1.4
Long 2 NQ 5258.0, 4258.5, +3.0, +4.0
Short 2 NQ 4275.0, 4274.0, -3.0, +2.0
Short 2 ES 1987.5, 1987.5, +1.0, -1.25
Short 2 NQ 4284.0, 4284.0, -3.5, -3.5
Short 2 TF 1072.8, 1072.8, +1.0, +1.5
Short 1 ES 1990.25, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1066.2, 1065.2, -0.0, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1069.7, 1069.5, +1.5, +0.5
Total ES +1.75
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +3.4

Tues Mar 8 Trade Summary

20160308
Long 2 YM 16947, 16948, +10, -10
Long 1 YM 16934, +30
Short 1 TF 1083.6, -0.6
Short 2 NQ 4290.0, 4288.25, -0.0, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1187.7, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1078.3, 1078.6, +2.0, +1.2
Long 1 TF 78.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1181.0, +2.0
Total YM +30
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +5.2

Mon Mar 7 Trade Summary

20160307
Short 1 TF 1077.8, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1181.1, 1181.8, -1.4, -0.7
Long 1 NQ 4307.75, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4292.5, -3.0
Long 2 TF 1080.4, 1080.1, +1.8, +1.0
Short 2 YM 16995, 16993, +7, +2.0
Short 2 YM 16998, 16998, -0, -0
Short 2 TF 1088.5, 1088.5, +0.7, +2.0
Total YM +27
Total NQ -5.0
Total TF +3.2

Fri Mar 4 Trades & Journal

20160304
Long 1 TF 1071.0, +1.8
Long 1 NQ 4305.5, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 4313.75, 431325, +8.0, +8.0
Long 1 NQ 4301.75, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 4313.25, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 4305.0, +5.0
Short 1 NQ 4333.5, -1.0
Short 1 NQ 4333.5, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1084.1, 1084.7, -0.0, -0.6
Total NQ +21.0
Total TF +1.2

Second trend efforts tend to be truer than 1st. That's a statistic from two of the three Day Models which show that Test-n-Reject are far more common than Persistent Trend. Today I could pretend to congratulate myself on limiting my attempts to short the 2nd Trend as it continued to grind up and through one resistance level and structure level after another. But the truth is, I already had my daily goal with some nice NQ trades, and it was my caution to not give that away on the last daily of the week more than the mark of self discipline to bide 2nd Trends very carefully. Consistency is more important than being right. And nothing feels better than after having been whacked very hard earlier in the week on Tuesday, to close put the 1st Frame on three days thereafter back-to-back with profits. ....and it's Friday. ...a good weekend to all...

Thurs Mar 3 Trades & Journal

20160303
Long 1 NQ 4316.5, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 4314.5, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1065.9, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1066.9, 1066.9, +1.3, +2.5
Short 1 TF 1068.2, +1.4
Long 1 NQ 4304.5, +8.0
Short 1 TF 1068.3, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1071.6, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1071.3, +1.0
Total NQ +11.0
Total TF +4.7

Trade entry signals, when based on models of comprised disparate elements, can become fuzzy when there is dramatic bifurcation between contracts. At some point, this tug-a-war becomes resolved, but often invites assumptions about the true trend. Assumptions can be costly. It is better to trade such diverging contracts on their individual merits, and keep the size small....sometimes even to the point of being long the one and short the other at the same time. If such a battle persists throughout the 1st Frame of the day, it is quite likely to find some resolution as the Midday Frame ensues. Be patient, and hold back on size. Eventually, the flock of black birds coagulates and syncs into a more unified decision.

Wed Mar 2 Trade Summary

20160302
Short 1 NQ 4330.25, +8.0
Short 2 TF 1054.3, 1054.2, +0.7, +2.8
Short 1 TF 1055.6, +1.1
Total NQ +8.0
Total TF +4.6

Tues Mar 1 Trades & Journal

20160301
Short 1 TF 1039.3, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1037.9, 1037.3, -1.6, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1035.6, 1035.6, +1.4, -0.2
Short 2 NQ 4248.25, 4248.25, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 4254.25, 4254.25, +4.0, +3.0
Long 1 YM 16600, +25
Short 1 TF 1040.3, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1043.0, 1042.7, -1.0, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1043.3, 1043.3, 1043.2, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1043.9, 1043.9, 1043.9, -0.8, -0.8, -0.8
Total YM +25
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF -7.4

Some days the swing signals are just challenging...to say the least. When the dust settles, there are often more subtle signs you could have seen that were then outside your purview in the heat of trade entry decisions. Today, I had to look pretty hard even to find those. The trade models appeared, but price was simply not contained by them, and consequently I was repeatedly stp'd out. When such days appear, somethings the best you can do is contain your losses to no more than about the numerical value of a day's profit goals. Stay with your Trade Plan. Let the Plan'sbehavior stops take you out when loss limits are reached. Accept the outcome and resolve to come back fresh tomorrow. ...it's another day....