Fri Oct 31 Trades & Journal

20141031
Short 2 YM 17245, 17245, -0, -7
Long 2 YM 17251, 17251, +7, +19
Short 1 NQ 4149.5, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 4141.5, -1.5
Short 2 NQ 4139.75, 4138.75, -1.0, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1169.7, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1170.0, 1170.1, -0.6, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1170.5, 1170.3, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1171.0, 1171.0, +0.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1170.2, 1170.5, +0.7, +1.4
Long 2 TF 1167.5, 1167.6, +0.5, +2.0
Total YM +19
Total NQ -4.5
Total TF +4.4

Often on big gap days, the energy is sucked right out of the market. That's because the trend and volatility were all pre-cash opening, and the 1st frame becomes more like stepping into the PM session from the opening bell. But it is what it is. Work with what you've been dealt. And losing focus, I missed several excellent signals in the YM while stuck in poorer action of the early NQ and TF. Stay focused. Trade what's in front of you. Know your plan. Look for your plan to come to fruition where it wants. Trade the signals where they appear. ...and a good weekend to all...

Thurs Oct 30 Trade Summary

20141030
Long 1 NQ 4077.0, +5.0
Short 2 YM 16988, 16993, 16988, +7, -5, -7
Short 2 TF 1146.9, 1146.7, +3.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1136.5, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1139.1, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1139.5, 1139.4, -0.6, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1142.7, 1142.6, +0.7, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 4070.0, +5.0
Total YM -5
Total NQ +10
Total TF +5.7

Wed Oct 29 Trades & Journal

20141029
Short 1 TF 46.8, +2.0
Long 1 YM 16953, +20
Long 2 NQ 4090.0, 4090.0, +2, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1148.6, +4.0
Total YM +20
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +6.0

Trade according to plan. Have a profit goal incorporated in that plan for the frame of day you are trading. There's nothing wrong with pulling the plug when that profit goal is reached. Today, the hits just kept on coming, but I missed several of them, including the first inflection breakout, because I had gratefully reached a profit goal for the 1st Frame of day. ...and that alleviates me from having to write that I didn't take something in my trade plan that I was supposed to have taken. GO ROYALS !!!

Tues Oct 28 Trades & Journal

Trade Summary
20141028
Long 1 TF 1119.1, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1118.0, -0.7,
Long 1 TF 1118.6, +3.0
Short 2 YM 16812, 16813, +11, +5
Short 1 TF 1125.9, +1.4
Short 1 YM 16816, +13
Long 1 NQ 4071.5, +4.0
Total YM +29
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +3.4

Missed another key inflection breakout today in the TF, 2 days in a row. No excuse for yesterday's. Today's however comes with TF bull leadership. An old friend but so long forgotten that I'd tossed it from the list. One's apprehensions and inclinations are what hold the best in Trader back from his best performance. One is reminded at such times of the Warhol quote, "I want to be a machine". One can never trade like a machine, however. And outside of trading it would hardly be an admired attribute. But trading from a Trade Plan can at least attempt to keep the Analyst at work after hours, and the Trader functioning at his job better within the session. Review your Trade Plan each day before going into battle. ...better still as a refresher once taken for granted to clear out the cobwebs of 'inclinations'. Be disciplined.

Mon Oct 27 Trades & Journal

20141027
Long 1 NQ 4024.0, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1105.1, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1101.6, 1101.0, -0.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1099.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1101.5, 1101.3, +0.7, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 4024.5, 4025.25, -2.0, -2.25
Short 2 ES 1951.75, 1952.25, +2.0, +1.25
Long 1 ES 1949.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1103.2, +1.0
Short 3 TF 1108.9, 1108.7, 1108.5, +0.7, +1.6, +0.7
Total ES +5.25
Total NQ +0.75
Total TF +4.3

Missed a key inflection breakout coming off the lows today, and so missed the best trade of the morning. Was not flexible enough about trend possibilities, and was slow to recover from a stp-out taking further breakdowns at those same lows. Admitting you are wrong is a difficult thing in life, but in trading, it's complicated by the need to admit your prejudices immediately on the first moment a hint of conflict arises, because the consequences are so immediate. Position for the outcome. That's what stop-n-reverse is for. The market is its own authority for trend. It needs no other. Have a Trade Plan that accommodates the inflection junctures with readily identifiable entry models. Be the Plan.

Fri Oct 24 Trades & Journal

20141024
Long 1 TF 1112.1, -0.3
Long 1 NQ 4007.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4005.0, +8.0
Long 2 TF 1113.2, 1113.2, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 4008.5, 4008.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1113.2, 1113.2, -0.9, -0.9
Long 1 NQ 4008.25, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1111.7, 1111.7, -1.4, -1.4
Long 3 TF 1110.8, 1110.8, 1110.8, -0.7. -0.7, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1112.3, 1112.3, 1112.3, +0.7, -0.4, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1111.9, 1111.9, 1111.8, +1.0, -.5, +0.5
Long 2 NQ 4020.0, 4020.0, -2.0, -2.0
Total NQ -3.0
Total TF -6.1

Every day can teach you something about trading. And after you've established some good working entry models and management strategies, trading is really all about managing your head. Today, the action was challenging, especially so in the TF. But it is what it is. It's too easy to say the day was unusual, characterized by whiplash action at the turns and distinct and confusing bifurcation between the TF and the other contracts. But from that, you learn nothing. The fact is that the market is bigger than your trade plan, and can throw things at your trade plan that either trigger you in at the wrong places, or filter you out at the right places. Today did both of those to me. And is so doing, broke a winning streak that goes back about one month to September 23rd. Hold your losses to about the same amount of your profit goals on any one day. That will make recovery reachable on subsequent days. Stay disciplined. A good weekend to all....and go Royals!

Thurs Oct 23 Trade Summary

20141023
Short 3 TF 1116.4, 1116.4, 1116.4, +0.7, +0.5, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1118.8, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1116.7, -0.3
Total TF +1.8

Internet down for most of the morning.... so trading window was narrow. But when I finally got into the chat room,
it was rewarding to note how well students had done in the first frame without me.

Wed Oct 22 Trade Summary

20141022
Short 3 TF 1110.2, 1110.2, 1110.1, +0.7, +0.7, -0.8
Short 3 YM 16561, 16561, 16563, -0, -0, +17
Short 2 TF 1113.2, 1119.2, +0.5, +1.5
Long 3 NQ 3963.0, 3964.0, 3963.25, +2.0, -2.25, -1.5
Long 2 YM 16541, 16541, -7, -7
Total YM +3
Total NQ -1.75
Total TF +2.6

Tues Oct 21 Trades & Journal

20141021
Short 2 NQ 3913.75, 3913.75, +2.0, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 3909.5, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1100.4, 1100.5, -0.7, +0.7
Short 1 ES 1917.0, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 3916.75, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1103.5, 1103.6, -0.8, +0.7
Short 3 TF 1104.5, 1105.6, 1105.6, -1.5, +0.7, -0.4
Short 2 NQ 3924.75, 3924.75, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 3928.5, 3928.5, +2.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1103.7, 1103.6, +1.0, +0.5
Total ES +2.0
Total NQ +12.0
Total TF +0.2

A frame without TF profits is like a day without sunshine... but in the Persistent Trend Day action model, 1st frame pullbacks are often shallow, and reversals from resistance show little if any production. Such is the grinding nature of many Persistent Trend Days. If this one sticks today, it will be the 2nd in a row, and a fairly rare bird. ...and another recent sign that this bull is not quite dead just yet.. stay focused. Days like this don't usually offer the best swing opportunities in the 1st frame, and they can be deadly to a week's overall profit goals if you try to force too many trades into the grinding action. Stay cool. Swing volatility will return. Persistent Trend Days seldom account for more than 4 or 5 days in a month.

Mon Oct 20 Trades & Journal

20141020
Short 2 TF 1086.7, 1086.5, +2.0, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1087.2, 1086.5, -0.2, +1.2
Short 1 NQ 3821.75, +8.0
Long 2 NQ 3832.0, 3832.0, +2.0, +5.0
Short 1 YM 16274, +20
Total YM +20
Total NQ +15.0
Total TF +3.7

Take the signals where you find them. Although the mini Russell is contract of choice, sometimes the signals just aren't there. Perhaps we get a bit spoiled by the TF's performance around pivots, and that makes the production seen in the other contracts, especially the ES, seem like chump change. Profits add up, and there's nothing wrong with taking multiples in the other contracts so as to weight their positions more evenly with that of the TF. Consider adding more contracts in the YM and NQ when taking positions there. Stay focused. Be ready to act. See the trades flesh out their requirements before the models reach fruition. Rehearse your actions, if this, then that. This is the source of your discipline.

Fri Oct 17 Trade Summary

20141017
Short 1 TF 1089.5, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1090.9, 1191.3, -1.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1 1087.1, +4.0
Short 2 NQ 3704.5, 3705.0, -1.5, +2.0
Total NQ +0.5
Total TF +3.6

Thurs Oct 16 Trades & Journal

20141016
Short 1 TF 1067.1, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1066.4, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1066.3, +4.0
Total TF +7.8

Today, I did something unusual. I let my students call the trades. My own Ninja charts were locked up, but my brokerage platform was not. The models today were so clear, much like yesterday. And today, the pre-positioning of the Philly Fed trade was as typical a example of a pre-news model as ever. I simply traded on the faith that my students understood the models as well as I, no thinking involved. ....and I must say, seeing their clarity of understanding made it one of the most rewarding trading days I have ever had. Trade with a plan. Each day the market is different, much like the way no two fingerprints can ever be alike. And yet conceptual models of market behavior repeat themselves day after day. Have a Trade Plan that incorporates those models. Trade your Plan, not your opinions.

Wed Oct 15 Trade Summary

20141015
Short 1 TF 1043.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3737.75, +8.0
Short 1 NQ 3777.25, +8.0
Short 1 TF 1056.9, -1.0
Short 1 NQ 3782.25, +8.0
Short 1 TF 1061.5, +1.5
Long 1 YM 16039, -10
Long 2 TF 1055.4, 1055.6, +3.0, +0.7
Total YM -10
Total NQ +24.00
Total TF +4.7

Tues Oct 14 Trades & Summary

Trade Summary
20141014
Long 2 NQ 3801.25, +4.0, -1.5
Long 1 TF 1153.5, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1156.1, +1.0
Short 2 NQ 3825.25, 2825.75, +2.0, +5.0
Total NQ +9.5
Total TF +3.0

'One-lot management' is an oxymoron. My only excuse for a trepidation 1-lot entry in the TF early buy signal was my late arrival to the charts, what with an internet data problem. But in truth, I was up and running well enough in time to see it coming. Daily confidence in your trading operations can depend on so many little things you take for granted... until they're not in front of you or at your side when they should be... Stay focused.

Mon Oct 13 Trades & Journal

20141013
Long 2 NQ 3857.5, 3856.5, +3.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1049.1, 1049.1, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 ES 1893.75, 1893.75, -1.5, -1.5
Long 2 NQ 3839.0, 3839.0, +2.0, +8.0
Long 2 3835.25, 3835.25, +3.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3833.25, 3833.25, -3.0, -3.0
Long 2 YM 16404, 16404, +7, -10
Long 2 NQ 3822.75, 3822.75, +2.0, -2.0
Long 2 YM 16394, 16394, +7, +30
Long 3 NQ 3819.0, 3819.0, 3819.0, +2.0, +5.0,
Long 3 TF 1043.7, 1043.7, 1043.7, +0.7, -0.8, -0.8
Long 2 NQ 3811.5, 3811.5, +5.0, +10.0
Short 2 TF 1049.7, 1049.7, +0.7, -0.0
Short 2 ES 1893.0, 1893.0, +1.5, -.25
Short 2 TF 1054.0, 1054.7, -1.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1055.6, 1055.6, +0.7, +1.0
Long 4 TF 1050.5, 1050.5, 1049.7, 1050.2, -0.0, -0.0, +3.0, +2.0
Total ES -1.75
Total YM +34
Total NQ +27
Total TF +4.6

You have to take the signals where you find them. In some instances, depending on the flexibility of your trade plan, you can allow the signals in one contract to count for entry in another. To do so in the TF, my Trade Plan demands buy signals from all 3 other major index contracts, the NQ, the ES and the YM. Some trade plans maybe less stringent. Today, the signals were occurring more in the other contracts sporadically in the 1st Frame and simply were not there in the early going for the TF. Be patient. The signals will come round eventually. Trade what's in front of you. Anticipate their arrival when watching for entry model requirements. Note what is missing. When it comes together, you have your trade. Until then, the sidelines are a good place to sit with a clear view and clearer head...especially on bank holidays when many of the players are missing from the arena and signals are spotty, action erratic. Be calm. Let the models reach fruition.

Fri Oct 10 Trades & Journal

20141010
Short 2 YM 16632, 16632, +7, -4
Short 2 TF 1070.4, 1070.4, +0.7, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1064.9, 1064.4, -1.4, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1063.8, 1063.8, 1063.8, +1.5, +2.0, +4.0
Long 2 YM 16616, 16616, +20, -5
Long 1 TF 1064.1, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1061.3, 1061.3, -0.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1060.8, 1060.8, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1060.8, 1060.8, 1061.0, +2.0, +2.0, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1057.0, 1056.0, -1.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1055.2, 1055.2, -0.8, -0.8
Long 2 TF 1053.1, 1053.1, -0.2, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1059.5, 1059.2, +0.8, +2.0
Total YM +18
Total TF +8.4

Volatility can be your friend or your enemy. And it's as easy to give profits back on volatile days as it can be sometimes to make them. I could have quit after the first set of trades and had no less than twice as many trades later. Especially on a Friday, it's usually better to just stop on any early profit that approaches your quota. Volatility can be like the moth to the flame, and like a junkie, you begin to want to live off it. Stay disciplined.

Thurs Oct 9 Trades & Journal

20141009
Short 2 TF 1089.0, 1088.6, +3.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1084.3, -0.3
Long 1 YM 16863, -5
Long 2 TF 1078.9, 1078.9, +0.5, +1.5
Long 1 NQ 4013.25, 4012.25, +8.0, +2.0
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +5.4

Trading in isolation can be a difficult thing. On the one hand, you need concentration and focus. That's compromised by company. On the other, a view of trade handling by others can help get you out of your own head when you feel a little stuck. "If they can do that, so can I" is not a bad conclusion to have on the way to improving on your own habits. Thankfully, I have my students. And many of them are better traders than I. Find a mentor, not so as to lose your independence of thought, but occasionally, if nothing else, to help you get unstuck when the narrow confines of your own thoughts have become too cramped.

Wed Oct 8 Trade Summary

20141008
Long 1 TF 1072.7, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1072.9, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1071.6, 1071.1, -1.4, -0.4
Long 3 TF 1069.5, 1069.5, +0.7, -0.2, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 3948.0, 3948.0, +5.0, -1.75
Long 3 NQ 3946.25, 3946.5, 3945.0, +9.0, +5.0, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1071.8, 1071.5, +0.7, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1067.1, 1067.5, +2.3, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1070.7, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3942.0, -3.0
Long 2 TF 1064.6, 1064.6, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1062.7, 1061.6, -0.0, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1060.8, +2.8
Total NQ +18.25
Total TF +8.3

Tues Oct 7 Trade Summary

20141007
Long 2 NQ 3975.5, 3975.75, +5.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1079.9, 1080.9, -1.4, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1084.5, 1085.5, 1085.2, -0.0, +1.5, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1084.9, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 3986.5, 3986.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 3 NQ 3982.5, 3982.5, 3982.5, 3982.5, +2.0, +2.0, -2.0
Long 4 TF 1081.2, 1081.2, 1080.3, 1080.8, -0.0, -0.0, +1.5, +0.7
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +3.6

Mon Oct 6 Trades & Journal

20141006
Short 2 TF 1102.0, 1102.1, -0.4, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1102.7, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1101.7, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 4034.0, 4033.75, +2.0, +5.0
Long 2 TF 1097.3, 1097.0, +0.8, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1099.7, 1099.4, +0.7, -0.1
Long 1 YM 16932, +17
Short 1 YM 16962, +8
Long 2 TF 1092.1, 1092.6, +1.0, +0.6
Total YM +25
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +6.8

There are two questions we ask ourselves at the major opportunities of the 1st Frame. "Where was your head at the turn?" And, "where was your Trade Plan at the opportunity"? Today my head was ok, and did catch pretty much the basic entry models, but my Trade Plan missed most of the big fish opportunities. So it is with trading. The profits you miss usually bother you more than the losses you take. But no complaints...as today, the smaller profits did add up. Stay focused.

Fri Oct 3 Trades & Journal

20141003
Short 2 TF 1097.3, 1097.6, -0.8, +0.7
Short 2 YM 16841, 16840, -9, -10
Short 2 NQ 4009.25, 4008.00, +4.5, +2.5
Short 2 TF 1100.8, 1100.6, +0.7, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 4014.75, 4014.75, -3.0, -3.0
Long 2 TF 1102.0, 1102.0, +0.4, +0.9
Long 2 YM 16866, 15884, +7, -7
Long 2 TF 1101.0, 1101.0, 1100.7, +0.7, -0.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1099.6, 1099.7, +1.0, -0.2
Long 2 YM 16846, 16846, -7, -7
Long 2 TF 1098.3, 1098.3, +0.7, +2.6
Long 1 YM 16833, +20
Long 1 TF 1099.6, +2.0
Total YM -13
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +7.8

Using multiple time frames is science for some. It is not in my trade plan. I find trades in-trend in one time frame can be very profitable as counter trend trades in another, and have come to the conclusion that most of the money that is lost in the markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which trend the market was in...but wasn't. So instead, we position into Trade Entry Models that appear at the right edge of the video screen, and let the trend be discovered with us in it. But today, the buy signals from the daily frame would have served me better if I had respected them as some kind of filter and was more cautious about early shorts and more aggressive about 1st pump breakouts. As for now, I see no other than a subjective filter to place in the way, and those are seldom of any consistent value from day to day. So I only note all this as an observation and see no modification to Trade Plan at this time. Change the Plan slowly, cautiously, even reluctantly, although modify it you must. It doesn't earn the respect of discipline unless it remains a constant.

Thurs Oct 2 Trade Summary

20141002
Long 2 YM 16992, 16993, +7, +20
Long 2 TF 1082.7, 1082.9, -0.0, -0.0
Long 2 NQ 3971.75, 3971.75, +2.0, +7.0
Long 3 TF 1081.8, 1081.8, 1081.4, +1.0, +1.5, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1078.1, 1078.2, +1.0, +1.7
Total YM +27
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +5.9

Wed Oct 1 Trades & Journal

20141001
Long 2 TF 1089.3, 1089.0, -.5, +1.0
Long 3 NQ 4012.5, 4012.5, 4011.5, +2.0, -3.0, -2.0
Long 2 YM 16828, 16831, +10, +14
Short 1 TF 1088.2, +1.0
Long 2 YM 16795, 16797, +7, +20
Short 2 ES 1951.5, 1951.75, +1.25, -0.0
Short 1 YM 16821, +20
Long 1 TF 1085.4, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1089.8, -0.6
Total ES +1.25
Total NQ -3.0
Total YM +71
Total TF +2.2

A heavier reliance on YM entry models of late, partly due to the fuzzier, more whippy action of the TF as it overrides or fails to complete the entry models of the Trade Plan. This just reminds me the importance of
being ready to trade any of the 4 stock indices followed, included the least desirable of all, the ES. Next thing to consider in breakout models is adding in a version of the breakout model most recently added to the Plan. If it's a fair observation that price unfolds more quickly on the bear side than usually on the bull side, then breakout models that may need additional filtering in the bull side might break far more cleanly on the bear and must be weighed in if the daily trend of this market is indeed turning to the bear. Stay focused.