Tues Sep 30 Trades & Journal

20140930
Short 1 NQ 4042.25, +4.0
Long 1 YM 16067, +5
Long 2 TF 1106.3, 1106.3, +0.7, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1105.9, 1105.9, +0.7, -1.0
Long 3 NQ 4027.25, 4027.25, 4027.25, +2.0, -2.0, -3.0
Short 1 ES 1968.5, -1.5
Short 1 NQ 4039.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1107.0, 1107.2, +0.7, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1107.0, +2.2
Long 2 YM 16970, 16971, +29, +7
Total NQ -1.0
Total YM +41
Total TF +3.7

Today can at least post to journal that I took the breakout model that was having so much trouble acting upon in recent posts. Granted it was in the NQ, and a 1-lot at that, but at least can say I've nudged myself a bit further down the road to that behavior change. Behavior changes are slow. Trading is fast. Keep the plan in front of you. Rehearse your actions ahead of time. If this, then that.... Stay determined.

Mon Sep 29 Trades & Journal

20140929
Long 2 YM 16870, 16868, +17, +7
Short 1 NQ 4004.7, -1.0
Long 3 TF 1104.7, 1104.2, 1104.3, -0.0, +0.7, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 4022.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1108.8, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1110.0, 1110.3, 1110.1, -0.7, -0.5, -0.6
Short 3 YM 16931, 16931, 16931, +10, +10, +10
Short 2 TF 1113.6, 1113.7, +0.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1112.1, 1111.7, +1.0, +0.5
Total YM +54
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +1.7

For the fourth time in just the past few weeks, have failed to take a key breakout model in my Trade Plan. And today, added big to the pain by trying to fade that same breakout model, stubbornly unable to get my hat around to be in sync. Changing habits is not easy. And this particular model seems not to set off the important dinner bell whenever it approaches. The habit of fading into the thrust being far too ingrained into my trade behavior. This has to be fixed. In recent months, have successfully added one or two other breakout models into the Plan. And have continued taking them, even after occasional failure to produce profits. But this one requires more rehearsal, so I'll review again all the screen captures and go after more consideration and mental practice. Remain determined. Make the change. The market will never change for you. The only thing in life you can effectively change is yourself, no matter how tempting it is to think otherwise, no matter how hard change is to accomplish.

Fri Sep 26 Trade Summary

20140926
Short 1 TF 1108.8, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1105.9, 1106.5, +1.7, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1105.6, 1105.0, +1.6, +0.7
Total TF +6.2

Thurs Sep 25 Trades & Journal

20140925
Long 2 YM 17056, 17057, -6, -7
Long 3 TF 1114.2, 1114.2, 1114.0, -0.7, -1.0, +0.7
Long 3 NQ 4048.0, 4048.0, 4048.0, +2.0, -2.0, -2.0
Long 3 YM 17009, 17009, 17011, +7, -5, -6
Long 3 TF 1111.3, 1111.3, +0.7, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1110.3, 1110.3, 1110.5, +0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 YM 16998, 16998, 16999, -0, -0, -10
Long 2 TF 1108.2, 1108.2, 1108.4, +0.7, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4025.25, 4025.25, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 ES 1968.25, 1968.25, +2.0, -0.25
Long 2 TF 1101.6, 1101.6, +1.5, -0.0
Long 3 TF 1101.8, 1102.0, 1101.8, -0.2, +0.7, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1101.8, -0.5,
Long 1 TF 1101.7, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1106.4, -0.7
Short 1 ES 1967.75, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1107.3, 1107.1, +1.1, +1.5
Total YM -27
Total NQ -6.0
Total ES +5.75
Total TF +2.5

Taking partial off to pay for the trade is key to survival when trading against support levels in a falling market, especially when finding a bounce to short into doesn't show up til the noon hour. Today, however, I added back the 2nd unit after partially out, so confident from yesterday's bullish action that today's early plunge was just a short term set back, and that made most of those otherwise break-even trades into losers, as the bounces from support levels simply failed to materialize. Several YM and NQ positions didn't even afford a big enough bounce to partial out. Since days like this are the exception rather than the rule, it is important not to make them stand out in your P&L as big holes in your week or in your month. If your Trade Plan depends on bigger intraday swings to profit from, then you only have to keep it together on such vertical days until the larger swing days return, as they far outnumber the vertical bull or bear 1st Frames. Stay cool. Stay focused.

I did, however, again miss an important breakdown inflection level that would have put me into the early collapsing trend way ahead of any attempts at counter-trend trading it. And to my added frustration, was exactly the entry model I have castigated myself over missing several times just recently on other such days. Personal change is difficult. I have started a screen capture catalog of examples of this entry model in an effort to refine the filter and give the Trader in me the skill to recognize the model and the confidence necessary to execute. The Analyst has long been pointing it out. The Account remains in doubt, and the Trader, a bit slow on the take to be sure, needs more rehearsal before successful implementation can be expected. Get busy.

Wed Sep 24 Trades & Journal

20140924
Long 1 YM 16985, -7
Long 2 ES 1973.0, 1973.0, +1.5, +2.5
Short 2 TF 1114.6, 1114.7, +1.3, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1110.7, 1110.7 1110.4, +0.7, -0.8, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1109.7, 1110.1, +2.2, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1109.3, 1109.4, +1.5, +0.5
Total YM -7
Total ES +3.0
Total TF +6.4

The ideal in trading, as they say, is to be completely lacking in emotion. Like Andy Warhol's famous line, "I want to be a machine." You're supposed to be able to forget immediately about a bad trade and also a previous bad day. If neither have triggered some maximum loss allowable level set aside as part of the money management rules in your Trade Plan, then the next trade or next day should come as easily as the previous, even if in recovery from losses. But of course, we are not machines, and attempts to pretend so are futile. But we can apply good discipline to our trading and accept the situation where the recovery from a losing day gets us at least back in sync, even if there were further trading opportunities left on the table once those previous losses were recovered. And so it was I found myself exiting the last position taken in the TF, with all the requisite features of being the probable low of the decline, in order to exit safely with all the money back from yesterday's losing day, with a little to spare. At least that kept me from 2 losing days in a row, something that throws me back to the simulator, and helps return the confidence that is normally required to Trade the Plan. Stay focused.

Tues Sep 23 Trades & Journal

20140923
Short 3 TF 1123.2, 1123.8, 1124.3, -1.4, -0.8, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1124.7, 1124.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1125.5, 1125.5, -0.0, -0.2
Long 2 YM 17071, 17072, -5, -5
Long 1 TF 1126.1, -0.7
Total YM -10
Total TF -4.6

When your entry model is incomplete, or is conflicted by counter signals from other contracts or entry filters, it's best to just pass on the trade. But we are an arrogant lot, we humans. When after a winning streak of many days, we are just unwilling to think that pulling the trigger again despite such entry conflicts will produce anything but the expected profits. Today's signals were difficult using the means I usually employ, but I made a crucial mistake regarding the outcome of the early trend that not only could have been avoided but in reverse would have enjoyed participation. Study all your entries with care. The best lessons that come from trading are those that surprise you and cause you to lose. The improvement you seek is not in your winners. It's where you lose that hides the success and improvement you seek. Those technical 'situations' will return, as rare as they might have seemed at the time. Categorize and catalog them. Be ready for them when they return. All things that happen in the market are in context. Look for opposites. Most of the technical language of the markets can mean the opposite to its 'norm' when that context changes. The market teaches us the best places to trade from every day. Open your mind. Listen to the market. The market is its own authority on trend excursion and reversal. Each day its history is there in plain view, and so now are your assumptions and misunderstandings about it crystallized by every bad trade.

Mon Sep 22 Trades & Journal

20140922
Long 2 TF 1128.9, 1128.8, -0.5, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1127.5, 1127.5, 1127.9, +0.7, +2.0, +0.7
Long 1 NQ 4071.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4069.25, +8.0
Long 2 NQ 4065.5, 4065.75, +3.0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1126.6, 1125.6, -1.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1125.3, 1125.3, +1.4, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1125.4, -0.4
Long 1 YM 17143, -8
Long 1 NQ 4050.75, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1123.9, 1123.9, -0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1123.3, 1123.2, -0.3, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1123.3, 1123.3, +0.7, +0.7
Total YM -8
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +4.4

It would be better for us all if Fed Chairman would not schedule speeches for the 10am ET hour. If their info pre-released or even simultaneously released, market participation would at least be more fair. Otherwise, the comments can dribble out and extend the effects. In any case, sticking to the Trade Plan can help keep you out of trouble, but might require some wider stp's. One of the key elements to exaggerated whiplash volatility is the ability to re-enter a trade if the trade model is still intact after a whiplash event extends beyond stp's. It takes some stomach to re-enter, but observations lead me to conclude that the model will return to expected behavior with the whiplash action behind you. Stay focused. Show conviction to the Trade Entry Models in your Plan. If they don't deserve the conviction to re-enter a position after such whiplash action, they don't deserve to be included in your Trade Plan.

Fri Sep 19 Trades & Journal

20140919
Short 2 NQ 4108.75, 4108.5, +2.0, +3.0
Short 3 NQ 4109.5, 4910.0, 4109.5, +4.0, -0.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 4106.5, 4106.0, -1.25, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1154.4, 1154.6, -0.7, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1153.4, 1153.4, 1153.5, +0.7, -0.6, +0.7
Long 2 NQ 4100.00, 4100.0, +2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 4098.75, 4099.25, +2.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1149.8, 1149.9, -0.3, -0.0
Total NQ +16.25
Total TF +0.5

Breakouts in the TF were the key ingredient to the day's big bear trend, but those came mostly after the 1st frame, and against some extreme oversold momentum readings outside of current Trade Entry Model limits. If a real bear market is finally ensuing, then the stringent filters on bear breakdown levels might have to be lifted from entry models, as when big bears finally get started, they are brutal and persistent. Since the other contracts remained from committed initially, the NQ provided some reversals in resistance to the bearish action. But eventually, the come-lately NQ bullishness will give way, as all sectors and contracts will get in sync with a major trend. Many have called a premature end to this bull market, and I've called at least 3 of the last 1 bear markets myself... Stay focused. ...and a good weekend to all...


Sep 18 Trade Summary

20140918
Short 4 TF 1152.5, 1152.4, 1152.5, 1152.5, +0.7, +1.0, +1.0, +0.7
Short 2 YM 17135, 17136, -4, +5
short 2 NQ 4084.25, 4084.25, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1153.9, 1153.5, +0.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1151.6, +1.2
Total YM +1
Total NQ -4.0
Total TF +6.3

Wed Sep 17 Trade Summary

20140917
Long 2 YM 17864, 17864, -0, -0
Long 2 NQ 4059.75, 4060.0, +3.0, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1150.8, 1150.6, +0.5, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1151.3, 1151.5, +0.4, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 1162.5, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 1164.0, 1163.75, +2.0, +3.0
Total YM -0
Total NQ +10.00
Total TF +2.0

Tues Sep 16 Trades & Journal

20140916
Long 2 TF 1138.5, 1137.8, -0.0, +1.7
Short 2 TF 1140.8, 1140.8, -0.4, -0.4
Short 4 NQ 4024.5, 40.24.5, 4026.0, 40.26.0, -0.0, -0.0, +2.0, +4.0
Long 2 TF 1141.8, 1141.9, +0.7, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1141.1, 1140.9, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 NQ 4026.5, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1138.8, 1138.2, -1.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1137.7, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1136.5, 1136.4, +0.5, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 4019.5, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1135.8, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4017.0, 4017.0, +2.0, +7.0
Long 2 TF 1135.1, 1135.6, +1.4, -0.0
Total NQ +13.5
Total TF +3.2

Considering the large swings today in the TF, trading performance can only be said to be disappointing. Got chopped out of several breakouts that needed continued encouragement as newer additions to the Trade Plan, which adds to disappoint. Part of the problem was the nearly total focus on the TF, while the YM was providing perfect signals and without all the TF's whiplash action. NQ, however, was as nearly consistent, and pretty much saved my day. A final decision to let the default stop-loss distance stand on the last trades risked all the remaining TF profits and more, but did provide the solution to surviving the whiplash action at the TF turns. Stay focused. Don't ignore the other contracts even though the TF remains the object of choice. There's nothing wrong with trading the YM, the NQ or even the ES if necessary.

Mon Sep 15 Trade Summary

20140915
Long 5 TF 1146.2, 1146.2, 1146.4, 1146.0, 1146.3, +0.7, +0.7, -1.0, +1.0, -0.8
Long 3 NQ 4030.75, 4031.25, 40.32.0, +2.0, +4.0, -2.0
Long 2 ES 1970.75, 1970.5, -1.5, +1.5
Long 4 TF 1141.0, 1141.0, 1141.5, +0.7, +4.0, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1145.4, 1145.2, +0.7, +1.8
Total ES -0.0
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +8.5

Fri Sep 12 Trades & Journal

20140912
Short 1 TF 1167.4, +0.5
Long 1 NQ 4062.0, -2.0
Long 3 TF 1164.8, 1163.9, 1164.1, -0.0, +1.9, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1163.8, 1163.8, +0.5, +1.2
Short 2 NQ 4073.75, 4073.75, +2.0, +3.0
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +5.1

Contract rollover has become a bit of a curiosity. Once, when there was still a hugely active pit in SPOO's, as we called them, rollover was a quasi-religious event. The TF contract has nearly ignored the event once moving to the ICE from the CME, and now, the CME electronic contracts seem to be ignoring it a some themselves, with volume here on the 2nd day as good still in expiring Sep as is now in the new Dec. Whatever. I simply stayed with the Sep TF and went with the Dec CME's. Action was spotty regardless, but the signals were true nonetheless. Trade the Plan. ...and a good weekend to all...

Thur Sep 11 Trades & Journal

20140911
Long 2 NQ 4080.75, 4080.0, +1.5, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1160.5, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 YM 17013, 17013, -5, -5
Long 1 TF 1160.5, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 4086.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1163.3, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1163.8, 1163.7, -0.1, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1164.5, 1164.1, -0.0, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 4082.75, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1160.8, 1160.7, -0.5, +0.6
Long 2 ES 1986.25, 1986.25, +1.5, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1158.9, 1158.9, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4077.0, 4077.5, -1.0, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1166.0, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1166.7, 1166.6, +0.5, +1.1
Total ES +3.0
Total NQ +3.5
Total YM -10
Total TF +4.2

The lack of any economic reports is often a tell that the day might be choppy. It's not that fundamentals rule the trend. In fact, if anything, its just the opposite, but a lack of belief or purpose or commitment often means that short term swings among the indices are rife with divergence and bifurcation. One of the best trades today was a stp-n-rev into shorts in the NQ while going long in the TF. Instead of handling it according to plan, my NQ stp's were hit without reversing, and my TF longs were simply stopped out too tight. I got neither of those opportunities, and extended my trading to nearly the Noon hour looking for one last decent TF signal, having missed the whole 2nd TF ride back up. Some days are better for trading than others, but today, I think I'd have to simply say some days your response and decision time is better than on other days. And today was not one of my better days. Rehearse the plan mentally over every aberration your entry models can render. Be prepared to act from those established rehearsals. Be the Plan.

Wed Sep 10 Trade Summary

Trade Summary
20140910
Long 1 TF 1155.8, +1.2
Short 3 TF 1158.4, 1158.8, 1158.9, -0.0, +1.5, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1154.7, +1.0
Total TF +6.7

Tues Sep 9 Trade Summary

20140909
Short 3 TF 1165.3, 1165.5, 1166.3, -0.0, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 ES 1993.0, -0.0
Long 2 YM 17090, 17060, +19, +7
Long 1 TF 1161.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1161.1, 1160.9, +1.2, +0.5
Total ES -1.5
Total YM +26
Total TF +3.9

Mon Sep 8 Trades & Journal

20140908
Long 1 YM 17106, +17
Short 2 TF 1173.6, 1173.8, -0.3, +0.6
Short 1 TF 1173.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1172.1, -0.5,
Long 2 TF 1171.5, 1171.6, -0.5, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1170.9, +1.5
Long 3 TF 1169.0, 1169.0, 1168.6, +0.5, -0.7, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1168.3, 1168.3, +0.7, +1.7
Short 2 TF 1168.2, 1168.2, -0.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1171.4, 1171.9, -0.0, +1.5
Total YM +17
Total TF +4.9


Took two inflection breakout trades today, exactly as prescribed by the plan, and one of them in a place was repeatedly guilty for balking. Breakouts can be an essential element to the trade plan, and today, since I had exited the shorts from the high too early, those breakdown plays were essential in staying ahead of losses and capturing the larger trend of the morning. This required some quick stp-n-rev at critical levels, and without being alert to the possibilities in advance of their arrival, such entries would not have been possible. Stay focused .... even on Mondays... especially on Mondays.

Fri Sep 5 Trades & Journal

20140905
Long 3 TF 1160.5, 1160.7, 1160.0, +0.5, +0.7, +1.9
Short 2 TF 1165.8, 1165.7, -0.5, -0.6,
Short 2 TF 1166.6, 1166.5, +0.7, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1162.7, 1162.7, +0.7, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1162.4, +1.0,
Long 1 TF 1161.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1161.7, +0.8
Long 2 TF 1161.4, 1161.9, -0.4, +0.7
Long 1 YM 17010, +6
Short 1 TF 1159.8, +1.0
Long 1 YM 17000, +15
Long 1 TF 1158.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1157.9, +2.0
Total YM +21
Total TF +7.9

The important thing is seeing the trades coming in advance of their arrival. This is impossible without a well defined Trade Plan that has precise entry models. Otherwise, you are chasing trade entries after they've already arrived. Stay calm, consider the market from the point of view of 'what if', or 'if that, then this'. In that way,
you can avoid the aspect of being in a predictive mode. Let the market be what it wants. If falling further fulfills a model's criteria, then be prepared to act if it falls further. If a breakout at a prescribed level arrives with the proper filters, then set your entry stp's in advance. Stop-and-reverse plays are trickier. You must see both contingents in advance. If you have trouble doing this, as I often do, that suggests you have trouble in conceding that the market might go the expected distance, but in the OPPOSITE direction. Be careful of your trend assumptions, and remember the Douglas Premise: 'Most of the money lost in the markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which way the market was supposed to go.' ....a good weekend to all...

Thur Aug 4 Trade Summary

20140904
Short 1 ES 2003.00, -0.50
Short 3 TF 1177.8, 1177.8, 1177.6, +0.6, +1.0, +1.2
Total ES -0.50
Total TF +2.8

Limited screen time today because of personal biz appointments.

Wed Sep 3 Trades & Journal

20140903
Short 2 TF 1183.0, 1183.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1183.3, +0.7, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 4098.75, 4098.75, +2.0, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1182.7, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1183.1, -0.3,
Long 1 TF 1183.5, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1181.2, 1181.2, 1181.7, +0.5, +1.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1181.8, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1180.2, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1179.3, 1179.3, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1179.3, 1179.3, +0.7, +1.3
Total NQ +1.5
Total TF +3.6

Trend prejudice is a difficult thing to admit. And every basic book and beginner set of guidelines encourages you to use the trend as your mail filter criteria for taking trades. But does this definition of trend really serve you? 'Most the money lost in the markets is lost by traders who think they understand the trend'...to paraphrase the Douglas Premise. If nearly everyone attempts to trade by the trend, and nearly 90% of trading accounts close without making a profit, then perhaps that adage needs to be rethought a bit. Today I failed to follow plan and take a breakout trade in the TF because I thought I understood that trend....and it cost both in the money I didn't make in the breakout as well as that lost by trades taken too early before the breakout phase was done. Instead, focus on trading the price models that appear at the right edge of the video screen, and you will 'discover' the trend along with the ensuing price action. Stay disciplined. Show faith in the plan. Trade the plan and you'll be trading into the trends that matter for your time frame and risk allowance.

Tues Sep 2 Trades & Journal

20140902
Long 2 TF 1174.8, 1174.9, -0.6, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4085.5, 4085.0, +2.5, -1.25
Long 2 YM 17057, 17057, -4, -4
Short 5 TF 1178.3, 1178.1, 1179.0, 1178.4, 1178.4, +0.2, +0.5, +1.0, +0.3, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 4091.25, 4091.0, +2.0, -0.25
Short 2 YM 17077, 17078, -2, +7,
Short 2 YM 17095, 17095, +5, -6
Short 2 TF 1180.9, 1180.7, +0.5, +1.8
Long 1 TF 1178.2, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1176.1, 1176.1, -0.7, -0.7
Long 4 TF 1174.7, 1174.7. 1174.7, 1174.7, +0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5,
Long 3 TF 1173.3, 1173.3, 1173.3, +0.5, +0.8, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1171.8, 1171.6, +1.2, +0.5,
Short 1 TF 1173.8, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1175.4, +2.0
Total NQ +3.0
Total YM -4
Total TF +6.5

Trade action can 'condition' you to go to sleep. The day starts out a bit choppy. The four index contracts aren't tracking well. Signals are split, and it seems very much like you've entered another one of those listless, caught-in-the-doldrums trading days. But the market teaches us to look for opposites. How it behaves in the First Frame is what it comes out of in the Second. If volatile in the First, the second sleeps and grinds. If grinding and choppy in the First, then look out and get ready, because the Second Frame of the day could contain all the volatility you were looking for in the First, right when you least expect it. Today was just such as day, as good short signals finally showed up in the TF and NQ, only to shake me loose from them long before their respective excursions hit vertical air pockets of total collapse. I was thinking 'It's choppy, better nailed down these minimum profits' right when I should have been looking for opposites. Look for opposites. The Rule of Alternation describes not only wave and excursion length, but the style of price action as well. Let the feeling of being lulled into sleep be a warning bell in your head. The change can be dramatic.