Wed Dec 17 Trades & Journal

20141217
Short 1 NQ 4088.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1143.0, +1.5
Short 2 YM 17122, 17122, +7, +20
Long 2 ES 1978.25, +2.0
Long 2 YM 17087, 17087, +10, +20
Long 2 NQ 4112.0, 4112.0, -0.0, -0.0
Long 2 YM 17078, 17073, -15, -10
Long 1 ES 1976.5, +3.0
Long 2 ES 1975.75, 1975.75, -0.0, -0.0
Long 3 TF 1138.5, 1138.5, 1138.5, -1.4, -0.5, -0.5
Long 4 TF 1137.4, 1137.4, 1137.4, 1138.1, +1.5, +1.5, +2.3, +1.4
Total ES +5.0
Total YM +33
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF 5.8

The focus of trading is not prediction. If it was, I certainly would seldom have much profit to report. The focus of trading is on entry positioning--regardless of what trend I might tend to argue for at any given point. And when further volatility works beyond the stop-loss limits of an entry, but the entry model is still intact, then it is important to take a quick breath and access whether to simply re-enter the trade. Many of the best trades are hiding behind just such volatility, as if the market were really a person of perverse character, intending to shake as many would-be participants out of their otherwise correctly positioned trades before fulfilling the very trend they had risked their entries to position for, but now without them. Stay focused. The ValhallaFutures trade room will be close from here through the rest of the holiday season, to re-open Jan 2, 2015... ... and we want to wish you a very Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkuh to all.

Tues Dec 16 Trade Summary

20141216
Short 2 TF 1138.6, 1139.2, +1.2, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1140.1, -0.4
Short 1 YM 17105, +20
Long 1 NQ 4130.25, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 4115.0, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 4114.5, -3.0
Short 1 NQ 4138.25, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1135.7, +2.0
Total YM +20
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +4.8

Mon Dec 15 Trade Summary

20141215
Short 1 TF 1153.4, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1157.1, 1157.1, +1.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1155.0, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 4211.75, +4.5
Long 2 TF 1150.8, 1150.5, +0.7, -0.8
Long 1 NQ 4203.25, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 4201.0, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 4203.00, +6.0
Long 1 TF 1147.1, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4198.0, 4197.0, +6.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1142.8, -1.4
Long 3 TF 1140.4, 1140.4, 1140.4, +0.7, +1.0, +3.0
Total NQ +28.5
Total TF +5.7

Fri Dec 12 Trades & Journal

20141212
Short 2 NQ 4249.5, 4249.75, +4.0, +2.0
Long 3 TF 1155.6, 1155.2, 1155.6, +3.0, +0.7, +1.5
Long 1 YM 17408, +20
Total YM +20
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +5.2

Since leaving the CME, rollover for the TF at the ICE has been unclear. Volume was clearly better in the Dec contract today, even with CME's typical evacuation of their Dec contracts. ...so, trade the volume and stay with the Dec another day. Roll out of the CME's on Thursday after the 1st hour. This seems to be the best solution. ...and a good weekend to all...

Thur Dec 11 Trade Summary

20141211
Short 2 NQ 4263.5, 4263.25, +2.0, -2.75
Short 1 YM 17670, -7
Short 3 TF 1176.3, 1176.4, 1176.0, +1.0, -0.6, +0.7
Long 2 YM 17699, 17698, -7, -4
Short 3 NQ 4274.25, 4274.25, 4274.25, +2.0, +5.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1174.1, 1174.1, +0.7, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 4282.25, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 4281.25, +2.0
Short 1 YM 17732, -6
Short 1 NQ 4285.75, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 4286.5, 4287.0, -2.5, +0.5
Short 2 YM 17755, 17757, +18, +7
Short 2 TF 1181.9, 1181.9, +0.5, +1.7
Total YM +1
Total NQ +8.25
Total TF +6.0

Wed Dec 10 Trade Summary

20141210
Long 2 TF 1182.3, 1182.6, +1.8, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1179.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1179.1, 1179.1, +0.7, +2.5
Long 1 TF 1178.9, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1177.5, -0.7
Long 1 NQ 4263.25, +3.0
Short 2 NQ 4273.25, 4273.0, +2.0, +4.0
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +3.3

Tues Dec 9 Trade Summary

20141209
Short 3 YM 17689, 17688, 17695, +10, +7, -4
Short 1 TF 1159.9, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1159.9, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1160.3, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1160.9, -0.0
Long 2 ES 2040.25, 2040.0, -1.25, -1.25,
Long 2 TF 1156.7, 1156.7, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 4223.0, 4223.0, +2.0, -2.5
Short 2 TF 1163.8, 1163.8, +0.7, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 4240.75, 4240.75, -0.0, -0.0
Short 1 ES 2042.0, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 4256.25, 4256.0, +2.0, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 4247.5, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 4249.75, +4.5
Total ES -3.5
Total YM +13
Total NQ +16.0
Total TF +2.5

Mon Dec 8 Trades & Journal

20141208
Short 2 TF 1181.4, 1182.5, -0.0, +1.5
Short 1 ES 2073.25, +0.25
Short 1 TF 1183.6, +1.8
Short 1 NQ 4319.75, -0.25
Long 2 NQ 4315.0, 4313.25, -3.0, -1.0
Long 2 NQ 4311.25, 4311.25, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1186.6, 1186.7, -1.4, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1188.3, 1188.3, 1188.2, -0.2, -0.2, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1188.1, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1186.6, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1185.9, +1.2
Total ES +0.25
Total NQ -7.25
Total TF +4.4

The important thing to remember about taking losses is to stay calm, and not be too disparate to recover them. If your entry models reflect the variety of breakout and reversal patterns typical of market action, another set of trades are soon to reappear affording you the opportunity for a profitable day. If not, don't dig yourself in a hole that you cannot recover from by means of a single day's profit quota. Everything will be different tomorrow. Stay disciplined.

Fri Dec 5 Trade Summary

20141205
Long 1 TF 1177.8, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1176.8, 1176.8, +1.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1182.5, +0.8
Long 1 TF 1179.1, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1178.4, 1178.4, +0.7, +1.6
Short 2 YM 17943, 17944, -4, +7
Total YM +3
Total TF +4.7

Thurs Dec 4 Trades & Journal

20141204
Short 1 NQ 4322.00, +3.0
Long 2 YM 17857, 17857, +5, -7
Long 1 TF 1174.9, +1.2
Long 1 YM 17841, +12
Short 1 TF 1173.9, +1.3
Long 3 TF 1170.8, 1170.5, 1170.5, -0.0, -1.4, -0.8
Long 2 NQ 4311.0, 4311.25, -3.0, -3.0,
Long 3 TF 1168.4, 1168.4, 1168.4, +0.5, +1.2, +2.0
Total YM +10
Total NQ -3.0
Total TF +4.0

Price action can be so deceiving. What appears bullish can lead to a total collapse, and vice versa. But our job as the Trader is not to predict. Our job is to position. Today, at a critical buy level, I failed to place a stp n reverse order. That would have positioned me for the last and deepest leg of the collapse. I let price action convince me of the intent of the trend instead of positioning for the possibility of the outcome. "Most of the opportunity that is missed in the markets is missed by traders who couldn't concede that the market would go the expected distance...but in the opposite direction", someone once said. Remember the feelings of confidence that come with a trade. It can appear as a sort of internal cockeyness at such moments, and as such, should help send out an alarm bell that you might be missing something right in the roadway dead ahead, staring you in the face with deers eyes in the headlights. Wake up! Be the B-9 Environment Control Robot from Lost in Space. Wave your arms and call out "Danger! Danger!"

Wed Dec 3 Trades & Journal

20141203
Short 1 TF 1168.1, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1171.1, 1171.4, +0.7, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1171.7, 1171.7, 1171.4, +0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 YM 17875, 17875, -8, -8,
Short 2 YM 17883, 17883, +9, +10
Long 2 TF 1171.1, 1171.1, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 4202.5, 4201.75, -2.0, -2.0
Long 1 YM 17868, +10
Short 1 TF 1177.8, -1.4
Short 4 TF 1178.8, 1178.8, 1178.8, 1178.3, -0.9, +0.7, +0.7, +0.7
Short 2 YM 17889, 17889, -6, -6
Short 2 TF 1182.3, 1182.2, +0.7, +2.2
Long 2 TF 1176.8, 1176.5, -0.7, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1176.6, +1.2
Total YM +1
Total NQ -4.0
Total TF +1.2

A second full Persistent Trend Day Up beginning in a row is a rare thing, and as such, provided scant few pullback buy opportunities to get in sync. And since this model offers only very selective fade opportunities, a carefully selected breakout trigger can often be the best and only way in which to participate. I balked at the only good one that appeared today, and was left with only the fade opps. Not all turns are readily I.D. with a limited set of entry models. Intraday swings are the stuff of the more common Test-n-Reject Day Model, and no doubt, there'll be more of those soon. Keep the losses small on days where reversals and breakouts are more carefully disguised.

Tues Dec 2 Trades & Journal

20141202
Short 2 NQ 4299.5, 4300.75, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1159.6, -0.2
Long 2 YM 17794, 17794, +7, +10
Long 2 NQ 4293.75, 4292.75, -2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1162.6, 1162.7, -0.6, +0.7
Short 1 YM 17824, -7
Long 2 NQ 4300.25, 4301.25, +2.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1163.6, +1.6
Short 2 TF 1166.6, 1166.4, +0.7, +0.8
Long 1 NQ 4297.25, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1170.2, -0.3,
Short 2 TF 1171.0, 1170.9, -0.0, -0.5
Total YM +10
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +2.2

Patience vs quick response seems like conflicting dialectic. In that regard, trading is much like the game of baseball. You almost have to time the moments of patience to fit the requirements of the game, but then be prepared to act almost instantaneously at the crack of the bat. Today seemed just such a day with a great deal of patience required to hold onto shorts at the 1st Frame HOD, once we had the runner in a hot-box between 2nd and 3rd. He had to make a move eventually. Throw the ball too soon and he simply goes the other way. Chase him down immediately and he simply retreats back safely to base. Today, I choked down too quickly and the runner slipped right out of the box and got the expected extra base. This kept the runner behind him from advancing, but what is the point of protecting profits when the early trade profits were all so small, and a daily profit quota not yet in hand? Watch for the extended rallies that grind on into the end of the 1st Frame. A correction usually comes in just about there.... right at the time best suited to wear a fielder out... Be patient. Read the play. Note signs of the impending outcome. Stay focused.

Mon Dec 1 Trades & Journal

20141201
Short 1 TF 1167.4, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1161.0, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 4305.75, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1165.9, +3.0
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +7.0

In futures trading, volatility is your friend... or at least it should be. Without it, swing reactions are muted and profit targets are stutter-step at best, and simply unattainable otherwise. Keep your eyes on your models. They should arrive with a confluence of technical aspects. .... all the more important that this confluence arrives when things are volatile, as early entries can be costly. Stay disciplined.