Trade Summary
20130830
Short 2 TF 1023.2, 1032.1, +0.5, +1.2
Long 1 NQ 3087.75, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 3080.5, -0
Long 2 TF 1018.6, 1018.6, -0.5, -0.5
Long 4 TF 1018.1, 1018.3, 1018.1, 1018.5, +0.5, -0.5, +1.2, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 3071.0, 3071.0, +2.0, +4.0
Total NQ +11
Total TF +2.9
Monthly Totals Aug 2013
Total ES +0.25
Total YM +24
Total NQ +36.5
Total TF +54.7
I let the whippy action caution me out of an inflection breakdown call in the TF today, even after the pre-break setup gel'd nicely. No excuse. Just too cautious. The whipsaws from failed breakout plays can leave lasting stings, and mine still linger from previous failed breakouts. But need to focus on the setups better, and reduce the decision down to precise filters. When this..then that. No thinking allowed. Thinking is for after "those machines turned off" as Harvey Duke would have said (Trading Places fame). Trading is all about following rules, and keeping to the discipline of the Trade Plan. Wishing a great Labor Day weekend to all.... cya next week.
Thurs Aug 29 Trade & Journal
Trade Summary
20130829
Short 2 YM 14823, 14823, +7, -7
Short 2 TF 1018.1, 1018.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1018.8, 1018.8, 1019.3, +0.7, -0.0, +1.0,
Short 2 YM 14838, 14838, -7, -7
Short 2 TF 1021.0, 1021.0, -0.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1022.0, 1022.9, -1.4, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1023.1, 1023.1, 1023.0, +1.0, +0.7, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1027.1, 1027.2, +1.0, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1027.3, 1027.4, -0.2, +0.5
PM trades:
Short 3 TF 1024.8, 1025.4, 1025.5, -0.0, +1.4, +0.5
Total YM -14
Total TF +2.4
Vertical markets the most difficult to trade. Very shallow pullbacks in the early drive, and was left with counter trend short signals at resistance and structural levels only. These barely paid their way to a net b/e state. I filter out from my Trade Plan breakouts to the initial trend direction on such days, as they can often come right back in your face. But a shallow pullback at the 10:30am Trend Check did hit an initial support number that would have positioned for the 2nd leg and a huge payoff. I balked and was left without an in-sync trade entry for the morning. As I post this journal, TF is making the best short signal so far today here at the Noon Hour, but I've closed the books and will just have to wait til tomorrow. Good trading. Stay disciplined.
PM Addendum
Although missed the Noon hour high and was shy of a fill on a trade call for retest of same, did find a short on retest later on well within Trade Plan. My entry a bit early, but the signal remained valid, so added to position and worked out of the less attractive fill. Have always found most the more accepted adages and trade axioms to be of little use, and in fact a deterrent to taking positions more precisely at the turns. "Never short a new High, sell a new Low" is one of those axioms. Tell that to a floor trader. That's where his profits come from. And "never add to a losing position" is also of little use if that position is still being built within the validity of the same signal setup. As long as the signal is still valid, a better fill price opportunity, is, well a better fill opportunity. And money management strategies like taking a 2nd and 3rd contract for a quick partial exit can help reduce or altogether eliminate the risk of the trade, as the position is reduced to a net break/even stp-loss strategy. For those attempting to trade futures without using auto OCO orders, this would all be impossible.
20130829
Short 2 YM 14823, 14823, +7, -7
Short 2 TF 1018.1, 1018.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1018.8, 1018.8, 1019.3, +0.7, -0.0, +1.0,
Short 2 YM 14838, 14838, -7, -7
Short 2 TF 1021.0, 1021.0, -0.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1022.0, 1022.9, -1.4, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1023.1, 1023.1, 1023.0, +1.0, +0.7, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1027.1, 1027.2, +1.0, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1027.3, 1027.4, -0.2, +0.5
PM trades:
Short 3 TF 1024.8, 1025.4, 1025.5, -0.0, +1.4, +0.5
Total YM -14
Total TF +2.4
Vertical markets the most difficult to trade. Very shallow pullbacks in the early drive, and was left with counter trend short signals at resistance and structural levels only. These barely paid their way to a net b/e state. I filter out from my Trade Plan breakouts to the initial trend direction on such days, as they can often come right back in your face. But a shallow pullback at the 10:30am Trend Check did hit an initial support number that would have positioned for the 2nd leg and a huge payoff. I balked and was left without an in-sync trade entry for the morning. As I post this journal, TF is making the best short signal so far today here at the Noon Hour, but I've closed the books and will just have to wait til tomorrow. Good trading. Stay disciplined.
PM Addendum
Although missed the Noon hour high and was shy of a fill on a trade call for retest of same, did find a short on retest later on well within Trade Plan. My entry a bit early, but the signal remained valid, so added to position and worked out of the less attractive fill. Have always found most the more accepted adages and trade axioms to be of little use, and in fact a deterrent to taking positions more precisely at the turns. "Never short a new High, sell a new Low" is one of those axioms. Tell that to a floor trader. That's where his profits come from. And "never add to a losing position" is also of little use if that position is still being built within the validity of the same signal setup. As long as the signal is still valid, a better fill price opportunity, is, well a better fill opportunity. And money management strategies like taking a 2nd and 3rd contract for a quick partial exit can help reduce or altogether eliminate the risk of the trade, as the position is reduced to a net break/even stp-loss strategy. For those attempting to trade futures without using auto OCO orders, this would all be impossible.
Wed Aug 28 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130828
Short 2 YM 14784, 14787, +13, +7
Long 2 NQ 3063.75, 3063.75, -.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1016.5, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1014.5, 1014.5, +0.7, +2.0
Total YM +20
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +3.9
A bear Test n Reject pattern yesterday became persistent with lower prices into the close. TRIN finished at nearly +3.0, so a correction was preordained. Although it was a choppy going, the trade plan offered good opportunities
in both directions and so just stayed with it until the end of the first frame. The best thing can be said about my trading today is that I waited for pullback numbers to hit, even though jumping the gun in a few cases would have meant more participation. The worst thing can be said was lack of faith shown in an NQ buy trade, where I dumped a 2nd unit at b/e on fear of failure, and was then left with 1-lot management, which means I tend to get out too soon. Stay disciplined....
20130828
Short 2 YM 14784, 14787, +13, +7
Long 2 NQ 3063.75, 3063.75, -.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1016.5, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1014.5, 1014.5, +0.7, +2.0
Total YM +20
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +3.9
A bear Test n Reject pattern yesterday became persistent with lower prices into the close. TRIN finished at nearly +3.0, so a correction was preordained. Although it was a choppy going, the trade plan offered good opportunities
in both directions and so just stayed with it until the end of the first frame. The best thing can be said about my trading today is that I waited for pullback numbers to hit, even though jumping the gun in a few cases would have meant more participation. The worst thing can be said was lack of faith shown in an NQ buy trade, where I dumped a 2nd unit at b/e on fear of failure, and was then left with 1-lot management, which means I tend to get out too soon. Stay disciplined....
Tues Aug 27 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130827
Short 2 NQ 3099.5, 3098.75, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1027.9, 1027.9, -0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1028.1, +1.3
Long 3 TF 1024.8, 1023.8, 1023.9, -0.0, +0.7, +1.1
Long 2 NQ 3083.75, 3082.5, -0.0, +6.0
Long 2 NQ 3082.25, 3081.25, +2.0, +5.0
PM Trades:
Long 2 YM 14766, 14763, -0, +22
Total NQ +9.0
Total YM +22
Total TF +2.1
Yesterday's resolution to take NQ 2nd trend inflections was met today with conflicts in Pivot / Exhaustion Grid that filtered out those trades, so can give no mental feedback to intentions on self improvement in that area based on today's opportunities. The initial climb came with several sell signals but stop'd me out anyway. Good signals lower down in the NQ saved the morning, but my exits were a bit early on those, as the 'digging-out-a-hole' syndrome pushes one to the exits as P&L gets back to even. All in all an ok 1st frame, as there were a couple good trade opps after the losses were recovered. Stay focused.....
PM Addendum
Decent Trade Entry Model at the 2:30 TransTime for a counter trend buy. Took it in the YM for its lower contract value risk, but even dumped one at b/e as I witnessed the shaky action. ....or was that my shaky hand.... ha! Anyway, managed it as a 1 lot into the initial resistance for a balancing addition to today's profit goals. Stay disciplined.....
20130827
Short 2 NQ 3099.5, 3098.75, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1027.9, 1027.9, -0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1028.1, +1.3
Long 3 TF 1024.8, 1023.8, 1023.9, -0.0, +0.7, +1.1
Long 2 NQ 3083.75, 3082.5, -0.0, +6.0
Long 2 NQ 3082.25, 3081.25, +2.0, +5.0
PM Trades:
Long 2 YM 14766, 14763, -0, +22
Total NQ +9.0
Total YM +22
Total TF +2.1
Yesterday's resolution to take NQ 2nd trend inflections was met today with conflicts in Pivot / Exhaustion Grid that filtered out those trades, so can give no mental feedback to intentions on self improvement in that area based on today's opportunities. The initial climb came with several sell signals but stop'd me out anyway. Good signals lower down in the NQ saved the morning, but my exits were a bit early on those, as the 'digging-out-a-hole' syndrome pushes one to the exits as P&L gets back to even. All in all an ok 1st frame, as there were a couple good trade opps after the losses were recovered. Stay focused.....
PM Addendum
Decent Trade Entry Model at the 2:30 TransTime for a counter trend buy. Took it in the YM for its lower contract value risk, but even dumped one at b/e as I witnessed the shaky action. ....or was that my shaky hand.... ha! Anyway, managed it as a 1 lot into the initial resistance for a balancing addition to today's profit goals. Stay disciplined.....
Mon Aug 26 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130826
Short 3 TF 1037.4, 1038.7, 1038.7, -0.3, +0.7, +1.3
Short 2 YM 15011, 15011, +7, -2
Short 2 TF 1040.6, 1040.7, -0.4, -0.2
Short 1 ES 1665.0, -0.75
Short 2 YM 15021, 15024, -5, +5
Total YM +5
Total ES -0.75
Total TF +1.0
Choppy action changes the pace of trading dramatically, and certainly brings its own challenges outside of the normal trend considerations. When opportunities are scant, always remember that tomorrow is another day, and save your capital for those better days. Today, I ducked a TF breakout play that could have netted a small profit, but for the most part, good entries in the TF according to trade plan entry models failed to materialize. However, had I successfully spread my focus a bit into the NQ, would have noticed an excellent breakout trigger there in the early going that would have captured much of NQ's big bull swoon successfully. I must go back to the Trade Plan and emphasize the taking of NQ 2nd trend, SubSequent Inflection breakouts, as the NQ is easily the most consistent contract producing that breakout play.
20130826
Short 3 TF 1037.4, 1038.7, 1038.7, -0.3, +0.7, +1.3
Short 2 YM 15011, 15011, +7, -2
Short 2 TF 1040.6, 1040.7, -0.4, -0.2
Short 1 ES 1665.0, -0.75
Short 2 YM 15021, 15024, -5, +5
Total YM +5
Total ES -0.75
Total TF +1.0
Choppy action changes the pace of trading dramatically, and certainly brings its own challenges outside of the normal trend considerations. When opportunities are scant, always remember that tomorrow is another day, and save your capital for those better days. Today, I ducked a TF breakout play that could have netted a small profit, but for the most part, good entries in the TF according to trade plan entry models failed to materialize. However, had I successfully spread my focus a bit into the NQ, would have noticed an excellent breakout trigger there in the early going that would have captured much of NQ's big bull swoon successfully. I must go back to the Trade Plan and emphasize the taking of NQ 2nd trend, SubSequent Inflection breakouts, as the NQ is easily the most consistent contract producing that breakout play.
Fri Aug 23 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130823
Long 2 TF 1031.9, +0.5, +1.7
Long 3 TF 1030.2, 1029.9, 1030.0, +2.0, +0.7, +0.5
Total TF +5.4
Pretty much stuck to trading plan, but did duck one breakout trade called 'The Pinch'. By that time had gathered in over 5 pts TF, so could filter out any trade after hitting 1st Frame quota. Was reminded how important it is to wait til both price from the Pivot/Exhaustion Grid and the wave structure of Serial Sequent intersect, as I am often tempted to go when only one of them shows up with a signal. By sticking to that discipline today, only took 2 trades to capture the quota. However, that has a much to do with the nice swing volatility produced by those signals as the signals themselves. Stay disciplined and keep with a plan. You're lost as a trader without one.... and a good weekend to all....
20130823
Long 2 TF 1031.9, +0.5, +1.7
Long 3 TF 1030.2, 1029.9, 1030.0, +2.0, +0.7, +0.5
Total TF +5.4
Pretty much stuck to trading plan, but did duck one breakout trade called 'The Pinch'. By that time had gathered in over 5 pts TF, so could filter out any trade after hitting 1st Frame quota. Was reminded how important it is to wait til both price from the Pivot/Exhaustion Grid and the wave structure of Serial Sequent intersect, as I am often tempted to go when only one of them shows up with a signal. By sticking to that discipline today, only took 2 trades to capture the quota. However, that has a much to do with the nice swing volatility produced by those signals as the signals themselves. Stay disciplined and keep with a plan. You're lost as a trader without one.... and a good weekend to all....
Thurs Aug 22 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130822
Short 2 TF 1029.3, 1029.1, +0.7, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1029.9, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1029.1, 1029.1, +0.5, +0.5
Total TF +4.0
Missed several buy opps with orders working just below pullbacks, but that happens. Last profit came from having patience as the pullback target was accurate. However, lost patience once I was in the trade, and dumped the potential runner before it got back to the resistance target near the highs, which meant I left 2 pts on the table. My only excuse was that the last trade came a little after the end of the 1st Frame and was getting antsy to leave the screen. Stay disciplined....!
20130822
Short 2 TF 1029.3, 1029.1, +0.7, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1029.9, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1029.1, 1029.1, +0.5, +0.5
Total TF +4.0
Missed several buy opps with orders working just below pullbacks, but that happens. Last profit came from having patience as the pullback target was accurate. However, lost patience once I was in the trade, and dumped the potential runner before it got back to the resistance target near the highs, which meant I left 2 pts on the table. My only excuse was that the last trade came a little after the end of the 1st Frame and was getting antsy to leave the screen. Stay disciplined....!
Wed Aug 21 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130821
Short 2 NQ 3087.0, 3087.0, +1.5, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1022.1, +2.0
Short 2 YM 14938, 14946, -12, -6
Short 2 YM 14949, 14951, +6, -0
Long 1 TF 1021.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1020.6, 1020.8, +2.0, +1.0
Total NQ +6.5
Total YM -12
Total TF +4.5
Lots of turns and swings today, just the opposite of yesterday. The more swing turns with Trade Model signals, the more opportunities. Today, instead of a Pre-News setup, the setup occurred just post-news, and provided a very quick payoff. The Trade Plan calls for a pre-news position if there's a trade model signal that appears with enough window left before the release to gain a premium in paper and/or partial profits to 'pay' for the trade. Today, that signal didn't occur til the news was right on top of us, but clarified nicely just after the news was over. Stay relaxed. Have a Plan. Stick to the Plan.
20130821
Short 2 NQ 3087.0, 3087.0, +1.5, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1022.1, +2.0
Short 2 YM 14938, 14946, -12, -6
Short 2 YM 14949, 14951, +6, -0
Long 1 TF 1021.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1020.6, 1020.8, +2.0, +1.0
Total NQ +6.5
Total YM -12
Total TF +4.5
Lots of turns and swings today, just the opposite of yesterday. The more swing turns with Trade Model signals, the more opportunities. Today, instead of a Pre-News setup, the setup occurred just post-news, and provided a very quick payoff. The Trade Plan calls for a pre-news position if there's a trade model signal that appears with enough window left before the release to gain a premium in paper and/or partial profits to 'pay' for the trade. Today, that signal didn't occur til the news was right on top of us, but clarified nicely just after the news was over. Stay relaxed. Have a Plan. Stick to the Plan.
Tues Aug 20 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130820
Short 3 TF 1016.2, 1016.2, 1016.1, +0.7, -0.0, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1016.7, 1016.7, +0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1017.0, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1018.8, 1019.2, -0.7, -0.3
Short 4 TF 1021.4, 1021.8, 1021.9, 1021.9, +0.1, -0.6, +0.5, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1052.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1022.6, +0.6
Short 2 TF 1023.9, 1024.2, -0.5, +0.5
PM trades
Long 2 ES 1653.25, 1653.25, +1.0, +1.0
Total ES +2.5
Total TF-1.0
TF's Measured Move target of 1009 was hit in pre-cash trading and it was off to the races thereafter. Unfortunately,
pullbacks were scant and shallow, and the Inflection breakout I did identify in TF was a belly flop. But the technique of partially out with small profit and then going to tight stp on last unit helps keep losses small when action is so virulent. Had a nice string of 7 winning days into this, and Persistence of trend always shows up eventually. On those days, if the right breakouts are elusive, best to manage the fades tightly. Don't let frustration about where the market SHOULD turn become big losses from expectations. Swing volatility always returns, and best to wait for another day for it. Stay focused.....
Addendum:
Came back at the 2:30 Transition Time to find TF pullback into the buy zone, but missed it on limit orders just a bit deeper than it went. Took lazy ES instead for small profit, and at least got back to a b/e day. Persistent Trend Day Up Model calls for new HOD's after the first and sometimes the only decent pullback sometime in the Midday Frame or thereafter. But sometimes Last Frame condemned to just drift without making any actual gains of its own.
20130820
Short 3 TF 1016.2, 1016.2, 1016.1, +0.7, -0.0, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1016.7, 1016.7, +0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1017.0, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1018.8, 1019.2, -0.7, -0.3
Short 4 TF 1021.4, 1021.8, 1021.9, 1021.9, +0.1, -0.6, +0.5, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1052.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1022.6, +0.6
Short 2 TF 1023.9, 1024.2, -0.5, +0.5
PM trades
Long 2 ES 1653.25, 1653.25, +1.0, +1.0
Total ES +2.5
Total TF-1.0
TF's Measured Move target of 1009 was hit in pre-cash trading and it was off to the races thereafter. Unfortunately,
pullbacks were scant and shallow, and the Inflection breakout I did identify in TF was a belly flop. But the technique of partially out with small profit and then going to tight stp on last unit helps keep losses small when action is so virulent. Had a nice string of 7 winning days into this, and Persistence of trend always shows up eventually. On those days, if the right breakouts are elusive, best to manage the fades tightly. Don't let frustration about where the market SHOULD turn become big losses from expectations. Swing volatility always returns, and best to wait for another day for it. Stay focused.....
Addendum:
Came back at the 2:30 Transition Time to find TF pullback into the buy zone, but missed it on limit orders just a bit deeper than it went. Took lazy ES instead for small profit, and at least got back to a b/e day. Persistent Trend Day Up Model calls for new HOD's after the first and sometimes the only decent pullback sometime in the Midday Frame or thereafter. But sometimes Last Frame condemned to just drift without making any actual gains of its own.
Mon Aug 19 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130819
Short 2 NQ 3087.25, -2.0, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1019.9, +2.0
Short 2 ES 1656.5, 1656.5, +1.0, +1.5
Total NQ +2.0
Total ES +2.5
Total TF +2.0
Pretty much traded the plan today, but did balk at an initial buy with stp-n-rev play for the TF. Would have been successful. a 2nd came as the end of the 1st frame approached, but would not have been successful. normally, I filter out breakout plays at the end of the 1st frame, so ducking that 2nd one was well inside the plan. is ok for a Monday ..... stay disciplined this week. Trade your Plan.
20130819
Short 2 NQ 3087.25, -2.0, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1019.9, +2.0
Short 2 ES 1656.5, 1656.5, +1.0, +1.5
Total NQ +2.0
Total ES +2.5
Total TF +2.0
Pretty much traded the plan today, but did balk at an initial buy with stp-n-rev play for the TF. Would have been successful. a 2nd came as the end of the 1st frame approached, but would not have been successful. normally, I filter out breakout plays at the end of the 1st frame, so ducking that 2nd one was well inside the plan. is ok for a Monday ..... stay disciplined this week. Trade your Plan.
Fri Aug 16 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130816
Short 2 TF 1027.0, 1026.9, +0.4, +0.2
Long 2 TF 1023.9, 1023.9, +0.5, +2.3
Total TF +3.4
Missed the Opening Breakout Play in TF, as I was unprepared to get the order in. Too much jappin' in the chat room, and am going on just a few hours sleep. ...another publisher's deadline. Also failed to capture the post news release decline today at the 9:55 release of those Prelim numbers. I did enter the short correctly just prior to the news on the short entry signal, with nice size offering of some 250+ contracts just above to front run against, and was able to exit 1 lot quickly for small profit. But as per rules of the Pre-News play, since there was no cushion just prior to the news release, I let the last one go for a couple ticks profit, only to watch price fall back sharply a few minutes later. But missing that profit isn't the point. The rule of 'exit if no cushion on Pre-News positions' is there for a reason. It keeps me out of trouble should the news offer a big surprise spike against the pre-news trade entry model. ...but did get the pullback for a nice profit. Trading on little or no sleep is a very bad idea. But didn't want to post a 'no show' with a new group of traders in the chat room. Don't trade without sleep, and if you must, make sure your Trade Plan is on auto-pilot. cya next week....
20130816
Short 2 TF 1027.0, 1026.9, +0.4, +0.2
Long 2 TF 1023.9, 1023.9, +0.5, +2.3
Total TF +3.4
Missed the Opening Breakout Play in TF, as I was unprepared to get the order in. Too much jappin' in the chat room, and am going on just a few hours sleep. ...another publisher's deadline. Also failed to capture the post news release decline today at the 9:55 release of those Prelim numbers. I did enter the short correctly just prior to the news on the short entry signal, with nice size offering of some 250+ contracts just above to front run against, and was able to exit 1 lot quickly for small profit. But as per rules of the Pre-News play, since there was no cushion just prior to the news release, I let the last one go for a couple ticks profit, only to watch price fall back sharply a few minutes later. But missing that profit isn't the point. The rule of 'exit if no cushion on Pre-News positions' is there for a reason. It keeps me out of trouble should the news offer a big surprise spike against the pre-news trade entry model. ...but did get the pullback for a nice profit. Trading on little or no sleep is a very bad idea. But didn't want to post a 'no show' with a new group of traders in the chat room. Don't trade without sleep, and if you must, make sure your Trade Plan is on auto-pilot. cya next week....
Thurs Aug 15 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130815
Long 2 TF 1030.2, +0.7, +1.2
Long 1 ES 1661.0, +0.25
Long 2 NQ 3068.0, 3067.75, +6.0, +1.5
Total ES +0.25
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +1.9
Have to meet a publisher's deadline this morning so could only attend briefly. Love to trade the Philly Fed days,
but this one did not produce much of a pre news play, only modest TF gains. There was, however, an excellent NQ signal at the LOD which we were able to catch for a nice bounce. Stay focused, and stick to your Trading Plan. Be back manana.
20130815
Long 2 TF 1030.2, +0.7, +1.2
Long 1 ES 1661.0, +0.25
Long 2 NQ 3068.0, 3067.75, +6.0, +1.5
Total ES +0.25
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +1.9
Have to meet a publisher's deadline this morning so could only attend briefly. Love to trade the Philly Fed days,
but this one did not produce much of a pre news play, only modest TF gains. There was, however, an excellent NQ signal at the LOD which we were able to catch for a nice bounce. Stay focused, and stick to your Trading Plan. Be back manana.
Wed Aug 14 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130814
Short 2 TF 1050.6, 1050.6, +0.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1050.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1051.0, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1051.0, 1051.1, +1.0, +0.5
Total TF +4.8
Stuck well to the plan today, and this time caught the initial ORB breakdown trigger, unlike yesterday. One flaw committed in stp-loss order movement. I trailed the stop to +1 as plus in paper profits approached, but should have waited till it broke a further pause pattern. As a consequence, left the next leg of the excursion on the table. But all in all, can't complain. Stay focused, stick with the Plan.
20130814
Short 2 TF 1050.6, 1050.6, +0.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1050.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1051.0, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1051.0, 1051.1, +1.0, +0.5
Total TF +4.8
Stuck well to the plan today, and this time caught the initial ORB breakdown trigger, unlike yesterday. One flaw committed in stp-loss order movement. I trailed the stop to +1 as plus in paper profits approached, but should have waited till it broke a further pause pattern. As a consequence, left the next leg of the excursion on the table. But all in all, can't complain. Stay focused, stick with the Plan.
Tues Aug 13 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130813
Short 1 TF 1048.7, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1044.0, 1044.1, +1.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1045.6, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1046.5, -0.2
Total TF +3.5
Fell back into a bad habit today, of missing the early ORB breakdown trade when it conflicted with another signal. I did, however, stick to plan and got short thereafter on next available short signal for an early profit. But there, I only took one and was left without a runner for the full excursion down. Although the lows in TF were a bit tricky, did manage a profit on one of them. Was a bit too focused on TF there perhaps, because buy signals at the LOD's for YM ES and NQ were less sloppy, and could have established a runner in one of those for the trip back up. I also missed a buy breakout buy opportunity in the TF on the way up, but it came after the 1st Frame was over, and that filter keeps me out of the trade by Plan. All in all, did ok, but don't want to fall back into old habits. Stay positive. Keep to the Trade Plan....
20130813
Short 1 TF 1048.7, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1044.0, 1044.1, +1.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1045.6, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1046.5, -0.2
Total TF +3.5
Fell back into a bad habit today, of missing the early ORB breakdown trade when it conflicted with another signal. I did, however, stick to plan and got short thereafter on next available short signal for an early profit. But there, I only took one and was left without a runner for the full excursion down. Although the lows in TF were a bit tricky, did manage a profit on one of them. Was a bit too focused on TF there perhaps, because buy signals at the LOD's for YM ES and NQ were less sloppy, and could have established a runner in one of those for the trip back up. I also missed a buy breakout buy opportunity in the TF on the way up, but it came after the 1st Frame was over, and that filter keeps me out of the trade by Plan. All in all, did ok, but don't want to fall back into old habits. Stay positive. Keep to the Trade Plan....
Mon Aug 12 Trades & Journal
20130812
Short 2 TF 1044.2, 1045.3, -1.4, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1047.7, 1047.7, 1047.7, +1.0, +0.7, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15363, 15362, +7, -0
Short 2 TF 1048.8, 1049.2, -0.4,+0.5
Short 1 ES 1686.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1049.6, 1049.3, +0.6, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1050.8, 1050.6, +04, -0.0
Total YM +7
Total ES -0.0
Total TF +2.5
On days of shallow pullbacks, money management is even more important. Several times today was convinced that at least a more deeper pullback would follow short entries... but never really did as the 1st Frame came to a close and the Noon Hour approached. But small profits can still add up just as fast as small losses. If continues, a Persistent Trend Day Up today could set us up for a good reversal tomorrow. Stay focused.
Short 2 TF 1044.2, 1045.3, -1.4, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1047.7, 1047.7, 1047.7, +1.0, +0.7, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15363, 15362, +7, -0
Short 2 TF 1048.8, 1049.2, -0.4,+0.5
Short 1 ES 1686.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1049.6, 1049.3, +0.6, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1050.8, 1050.6, +04, -0.0
Total YM +7
Total ES -0.0
Total TF +2.5
On days of shallow pullbacks, money management is even more important. Several times today was convinced that at least a more deeper pullback would follow short entries... but never really did as the 1st Frame came to a close and the Noon Hour approached. But small profits can still add up just as fast as small losses. If continues, a Persistent Trend Day Up today could set us up for a good reversal tomorrow. Stay focused.
Fri Aug 9 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130809
Short 2 TF 1050.2, 1050.1, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 3132.25, 3132.75, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 3133.25, 3133.0, +2.0, +2.25
Long 2 TF 1047.1, 1047.2, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 ES 1690.5, 1690.0, -0.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1048.3, -0.9
Long 2 TF 1046.6, 1046.6, +0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1046.4, 1046.4, -0,.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1041.7, 1041.5, +1.4, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1045.6, 1045.5, 1045.9, +1.1, +0.5, +0.5
Total NQ +0.25
Total ES +0.5
Total TF +3.0
The best thing to remember when signals appear but action is whippy is to remain calm. Usually the signals reassert themselves. Manage your trades accordingly. Even though a signal appears that should begin a clear trend, is best to partial out of the position anyway, even if that early exit turns out to be way earlier than needed. You enter the signal because the trade model is in your Trade Plan, but manage the trade as if it has the possibility of failure. Partialing out of a position pays for the trade, and today, kept my losses down in several places. Return to look at the Noon Hour. So many good trades can set up around that time marker. Today, it was the difference in making a mostly break-even day into a profit. ...and a good weekend to all....
20130809
Short 2 TF 1050.2, 1050.1, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 3132.25, 3132.75, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 3133.25, 3133.0, +2.0, +2.25
Long 2 TF 1047.1, 1047.2, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 ES 1690.5, 1690.0, -0.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1048.3, -0.9
Long 2 TF 1046.6, 1046.6, +0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1046.4, 1046.4, -0,.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1041.7, 1041.5, +1.4, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1045.6, 1045.5, 1045.9, +1.1, +0.5, +0.5
Total NQ +0.25
Total ES +0.5
Total TF +3.0
The best thing to remember when signals appear but action is whippy is to remain calm. Usually the signals reassert themselves. Manage your trades accordingly. Even though a signal appears that should begin a clear trend, is best to partial out of the position anyway, even if that early exit turns out to be way earlier than needed. You enter the signal because the trade model is in your Trade Plan, but manage the trade as if it has the possibility of failure. Partialing out of a position pays for the trade, and today, kept my losses down in several places. Return to look at the Noon Hour. So many good trades can set up around that time marker. Today, it was the difference in making a mostly break-even day into a profit. ...and a good weekend to all....
Thurs Aug 8 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130808
Long 1 TF 1049.7, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1048.1, -0.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1046.4, +1.0
Long 3 TF 1044.7, 1044.4, 1044.5, +0,5 +0.5, -1.0
Long 3 TF 1043.6, 1043.7, 1043.5, +1.0, +1.0, +0.5
Long 2 ES 1686.5, 1686.0, -1.5, -1.75
Long 2 TF 1042.6, 1042.5, -0.6, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1042.0, 1042.0, +0.5, +1.9
Long 1 TF 1043.6, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1044.8, -0.4,
Long 1 TF 1045.0, -0.3
Total ES -3.25
Total TF +3.7
Third day in row for a brutal 1st trend sell-off. And again, successive support levels failed to hold without providing much bounce to get short on. Such is the bear. And if the bear is finally taking hold in the daily frame,
there should be much more of this, as it has tendency to go vertical, unlike bull, which often grinds in fits and turns. Today, did manage to take the third contract on 2 of the 3 support levels where turns most likely, but failed to do so on the third and best support level. This left only modest profits at resistance exit, where a runner would have pushed me into a profit goal. Subsequent trades were taken as breakouts to that resistance level, but action proved choppy as the 1st frame came to an end. Second Trend breakouts are in my Trade Plan, so at least can say I met them. Stay with the Plan. The smallest details of its rules can mean the difference between a profit goal and just breaking even for the day. It takes heart to trade, especially on volatile days like this where it can be straight down, and then nearly straight back up.
20130808
Long 1 TF 1049.7, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1048.1, -0.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1046.4, +1.0
Long 3 TF 1044.7, 1044.4, 1044.5, +0,5 +0.5, -1.0
Long 3 TF 1043.6, 1043.7, 1043.5, +1.0, +1.0, +0.5
Long 2 ES 1686.5, 1686.0, -1.5, -1.75
Long 2 TF 1042.6, 1042.5, -0.6, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1042.0, 1042.0, +0.5, +1.9
Long 1 TF 1043.6, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1044.8, -0.4,
Long 1 TF 1045.0, -0.3
Total ES -3.25
Total TF +3.7
Third day in row for a brutal 1st trend sell-off. And again, successive support levels failed to hold without providing much bounce to get short on. Such is the bear. And if the bear is finally taking hold in the daily frame,
there should be much more of this, as it has tendency to go vertical, unlike bull, which often grinds in fits and turns. Today, did manage to take the third contract on 2 of the 3 support levels where turns most likely, but failed to do so on the third and best support level. This left only modest profits at resistance exit, where a runner would have pushed me into a profit goal. Subsequent trades were taken as breakouts to that resistance level, but action proved choppy as the 1st frame came to an end. Second Trend breakouts are in my Trade Plan, so at least can say I met them. Stay with the Plan. The smallest details of its rules can mean the difference between a profit goal and just breaking even for the day. It takes heart to trade, especially on volatile days like this where it can be straight down, and then nearly straight back up.
Wed Aug 7 Trades & Journal
20130807
Long 2 TF 1044.2, 1044.2, -1.4, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1042.5, 1042.5, +0,5 -0.5
Long 2 TF 1041.5, 1041.5, +0.5, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1041.0, 1040.8, +1.8, +0.5
Total TF -0.0
PM trades
Short 1 NQ 3111.75, -0.5
Short 3 NQ 3110.75, 3110.75, 3111.75, -0, +0.5, -.25
Short 1 NQ 3109.25, -1.0
Total NQ -1.25
Support at the gap-close melted through like butter today. So had to recover with subsequent position attempts. Decent signals at the Lows accomplished that. Got in late after the opening and missed two trades, one was a key short for the trip down. Big storms passing through knocked out internet. Always notice that trading is more difficult if you start late. The Opening is so important, not only for the market technicals themselves, but also for the psychology of it. Must start the day on time.... or suffer the affects of feeling behind in your trades. Tomorrow always another day... Stay positive..>!!!!
Back at the 2:30 transition out of Midday Frame into Last Frame. The NQ price extreme was time to the marker well, but just got chopped up in trendless action. Back in the A.M....!
Long 2 TF 1044.2, 1044.2, -1.4, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1042.5, 1042.5, +0,5 -0.5
Long 2 TF 1041.5, 1041.5, +0.5, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1041.0, 1040.8, +1.8, +0.5
Total TF -0.0
PM trades
Short 1 NQ 3111.75, -0.5
Short 3 NQ 3110.75, 3110.75, 3111.75, -0, +0.5, -.25
Short 1 NQ 3109.25, -1.0
Total NQ -1.25
Support at the gap-close melted through like butter today. So had to recover with subsequent position attempts. Decent signals at the Lows accomplished that. Got in late after the opening and missed two trades, one was a key short for the trip down. Big storms passing through knocked out internet. Always notice that trading is more difficult if you start late. The Opening is so important, not only for the market technicals themselves, but also for the psychology of it. Must start the day on time.... or suffer the affects of feeling behind in your trades. Tomorrow always another day... Stay positive..>!!!!
Back at the 2:30 transition out of Midday Frame into Last Frame. The NQ price extreme was time to the marker well, but just got chopped up in trendless action. Back in the A.M....!
Tues Aug 6 Trade Summary & Journal
20130805
Short 1 YM 15472, +10
Long 1 TF 1053.8, -0.8
Long 2 TF 1052.9, 1052.9, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 ES 1695.25, 1695.25, -0. -1.5
Long 1 NQ 3125.25, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1051.8, 1051.8, +0.5, +1.0
Long 1 NQ 3123.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1049.5, -0.3
Long 1 1048.4, -0.4
Long 3 TF 1047.3, 1047.5, 1047.5, +3.0, +1.0, +1.0
Total YM +10
Total NQ -1.0
Total ES -1.5
Total TF +6.5
From the 10 minute all-session charts, we began the day with a distinct if small Rising Wedge Pattern, which dumped nicely into a strong selling impulse for the early going. But I have a fairly precise entry trigger routine for shorting the 1st trend direction, and it didn't show up. The selling left me behind. I was left with counter trend trade entries. Several failed, but were clearly within the Trade Plan, so can't fault that. I did stick with it for a 2nd round of buy signals as the TF hit the 3rd Series Structure limits near the end of the 1st frame. That one hit the payoff nicely, and this time had a runner. I fail to get a runner established too often, but this level was extreme and the signals were strong. All in a all a decent morning. good to be back... seems like writing the book for a month was a refresher course for me.. or maybe I should just take a month off more often....
Short 1 YM 15472, +10
Long 1 TF 1053.8, -0.8
Long 2 TF 1052.9, 1052.9, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 ES 1695.25, 1695.25, -0. -1.5
Long 1 NQ 3125.25, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1051.8, 1051.8, +0.5, +1.0
Long 1 NQ 3123.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1049.5, -0.3
Long 1 1048.4, -0.4
Long 3 TF 1047.3, 1047.5, 1047.5, +3.0, +1.0, +1.0
Total YM +10
Total NQ -1.0
Total ES -1.5
Total TF +6.5
From the 10 minute all-session charts, we began the day with a distinct if small Rising Wedge Pattern, which dumped nicely into a strong selling impulse for the early going. But I have a fairly precise entry trigger routine for shorting the 1st trend direction, and it didn't show up. The selling left me behind. I was left with counter trend trade entries. Several failed, but were clearly within the Trade Plan, so can't fault that. I did stick with it for a 2nd round of buy signals as the TF hit the 3rd Series Structure limits near the end of the 1st frame. That one hit the payoff nicely, and this time had a runner. I fail to get a runner established too often, but this level was extreme and the signals were strong. All in a all a decent morning. good to be back... seems like writing the book for a month was a refresher course for me.. or maybe I should just take a month off more often....
Mon Aug 5 Trade Summary & Journal
20130805
Long 1 YM 15546, -8
Short 1 TF 1057.9, -0.0
Short 1 YM 15554, -6
Long 2 TF 1059.3, 1059.2, -0.4, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1057.6, +1.0
Total YM -14
Total TF +1.1
It's good to be back. It wasn't much of a vacation. Wiley and Son's Trading division has picked up my book "Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades" for a release sometime in the Fall, and spent all of July finishing it. Hope it helps your trading. Will give synopsis in a later post.
Long 1 YM 15546, -8
Short 1 TF 1057.9, -0.0
Short 1 YM 15554, -6
Long 2 TF 1059.3, 1059.2, -0.4, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1057.6, +1.0
Total YM -14
Total TF +1.1
It's good to be back. It wasn't much of a vacation. Wiley and Son's Trading division has picked up my book "Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades" for a release sometime in the Fall, and spent all of July finishing it. Hope it helps your trading. Will give synopsis in a later post.
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