Fri Feb 28 Trade Signals and Journal

20200228
Long 1 NQ 8264.75, +45.25
Total NQ +45.25

One-and-done. ...and a good illustration of using a buy-stop to be Swept Away. This was a classic Sub-Sequent trade from the fractal algorithm Serial Sequent. ...but it is not actually the dominant technical event concept the trade is based on. That concept is !st Trend / ORB, and can be read about in the book Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades, available online. The exit was mostly intuition...plus fear price would never push further than this little area of mini-exhaustion. ...I've never actually been right... and a good weekend to all...

Thur Feb 27 Trade Signal Summary

20200227
Short 1 NQ 8651.0, -2.25
Short 1 NQ 8655.0, -0.25
Short 1 NQ 8668.50, -2.25
Short 1 NQ 8670.0, -2.25
Short 1 NQ 8677.0, -0.25
Short 2 NQ 8690.0, 8690.0, +10.00, -0.25
Short 1 NQ 8693.0, +9.75
Short 1 NQ 8696.25, +26.25
Total NQ +38.5


Tight versus loose stop-loss rational. For years I traded the more volatile NQ as a 2nd or even third choice to most of my positioning. The ER (aka TF, aka now RTY) was my drug of choice... and often the YM was second place winner. But over the last year, with the NQ so dominant as market leader, and the RTY so apparent as laggard or even worse, as apparent hedge vehicle, the NQ was been my main focus. And I suspect for that for many of us who generally feel disdain when trading the clunky ES, this is now the case. But the NQ 'ain't no disco... it ain't no foolin' around... it's full Burnin' Down the House'. Yes, I have to admit, that just increasing my tight 2 point stops to something around -5 would enable me to survive the whippy, resurging nature of atypical market turns. But to what would I have to adjust it to enable surviving recent action? Would 10 points be enough? Would even 50 points enable you to survive and end-of-trend turn? For the truth is, if your method is be SWEPT into the prevailing counter-trend action, a small stop is about the same as a larger one.. Either you in with the out-going tide, or you're still being dash against the rocks like a heap of wet, washday clothes. ..and blood stains don't come out easily... Looking back on today's trades, it might seem like I expended a lot of foolish effort in my attempts at finding the underlying trend. But what is even far worse, is the acknowledgement that this one trend, this last short trade that I bailed on after what I thought was a generous 25 points, enough to secure my modest 1st frame goal of $500+, continued on for a lusty 180 point excursion... leaving for awhile, feeling far worse for having bailed than the losses I took trying to find it in the first place.

Such is the nature of the market .... it gets a good laugh at you most of the time...

Wed Feb 26 Trade Signals and Journal

20200226
Short 2 RTY 1681.0, 1681.5, -1.4, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 8990.0, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 9000.0, 9000.0, -0.,0, -2.25
Short 1 NQ 9010.0, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 9014.5, 9014.5, +10.0, +35.0
Total RTY -0.4
Total NQ +38.25

There are a number of useful 'tricks' for entering positions in volatile futures markets. Using the combination of the algorithm Serial Sequent and something we borrowed elsewhere called the Rule of Alternation, a simple stop order placed against the prevailing trend as it reaches the appointed extremes can sweep you into a position as the market snaps back into itself. The quick placement then of a break-even stop-loss order, and you're set to exploit the market's natural tendency for elasticity.

Another trick is the use of limit orders as the market is climaxing into extremes, placed on or next to 'whole' numbers in the index contract. I find this works especially well in the NQ, although today, it failed me with short sale entries at 8990.0, 9000.0 and 9010.0 ....datz a spicey meatball !!

Sometimes, like today, the Rule of Alt is not in play, and instead, the final thrusting fractal of an initial price trend after the opening simply stretches through expected climax zones one pop after another. The more final climax to this kind of moves usually comes after the 'tell' of a resurgence. That is, just when you think a retracement has taken hold, a surprising resurgence of the climax sends price into another bar or two where it would seem early scalp entries are themselves the fuel to push the trend further along. When this, and the very handy momentum tool we call True Trend signal a more final climax, one of the best tricks for fading the trend is something long known to traders as 'end-of-bar'. Why do you suppose price reacts so dramatically to the end of a final time bar once its clock has ticked out its life? Ninjatrader has a tool for this. It's a simple sweeping second hand indicator, easily placed within view on your chart, that eats itself up like the way Cheshire Cat disappears behind its own tail, in Alice in Wonderland, each time it makes a full turn of the clock.

Our new trading sotware, tentatively called the SuperChartDOM, due out in a few months, adds another button to the array of its Custom ChartTrader Panel called EndOfBar. When clicked, it delays placing its market order to Sell or Buy to the end of the current bar chart you are trading from, in the adjacent contract window. I used just such a tool to enter my last set of NQ shorts today, fading the initial price surge following the bullish open. That reversal produced a 90 point drop in the NQ, which I only managed to bite my tongue for 35 points of, but was enough to garner my First Frame goal in early action for the 3rd day in row of this amazing stock index volatility. Good trading to all....

Tues Feb 25 Trade Signals and Journal

20200225
Short 1 9161.0, -2.25
Short 2 9175.0, 9175.0, +10.0, +29.75
Total +37.5

Sometime before I was fully awake this morning I 'daydreamed' of the trade I would be offered in the early going as the market prepared for a big recovery rally, and how I would hold it perhaps well into the frame. But by the time of the opening bell that slumber state was well behind me, and similar to yesterday, I was offered a short sale in the NQ in the early going, and found myself covering my potential short runner with my daily frame goal already in hand. Sometime later I remembered my semi slumber dream, with the NQ down some 200 points.. Where was my rally? Trade what's in front of you. Stick to your Trade Plan. Ignore what's in your head. The money that is lost and the opportunities that are missed in the market each day are missed by those who think they know which way the market is SUPPOSED to go.

Mon Feb 24 Trade Signal and Journal

20200224
Short 1 NQ 9187.0, +22.5
Total NQ +22.5


Historic gaps can be intimidating, especially when the news might continue to bubble up all frame. On any other day, an early trade from the algorithm Serial Sequent might be worth a few points, but with extreme volatility, the biggest regret always seems in not having established a runner.

Mon Feb 21 Trade Signal Summary

20200221
Long 1 NQ 9550.0, -2.25
Long 1 NQ 9544.5, -2.25
Long 2 ES 3342.0, 3342.0, -1.75, -1.75
Long 2 NQ 9488.5, 9488.5, +20.0, +0.5
Long 1 YM 28911, +47
Long 1 YM 28880, -0
Long 1 YM 28881, +7
Total ES -3.5
Total YM +54
Total NQ +20.5

Thur Feb 20 Trade Signal Summary

20200220
Short 1 NQ 9702.25, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 9705.0, 9705.0, +5.0, +6.0
Short 1 NQ 9704.0, +10.0
Short 3 RTY 1694.5, 1695,3 1696.3, -1.5, -1.4, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 9713.25, -2.25
Short 1 NQ 9715.0, -0.0
Short 2 YM 29334, 29334, -7, -7
Short 2 RTY 1697.6, 1697.5, -0.7, -0.7
Long 1 NQ 9698.0, +5.5
Short 1 NQ 9717.5, +5.0
Total YM -14
Total NQ +27.0
Total RTY -4.3

Wed Feb 19 Trade Signal Summary

20200219
Short 2 NQ 9713.0, 9713.0, -0.0, -2.25
Short 3 NQ 9715.0, 971.5, 9715.25, +2.0 -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 ES 3386.75, 3386.5, +2.0, +2.5
Short 1 NQ 9721.5, -2..25,
Short 2 NQ 9722.0, 9722.0, +2.0, +10.25
Total ES +4.5
Total NQ +14.75

Tues Feb 18 Trade Signal Summary

20200218
Short 2 RTY 1688.0, 1688.8, +1.1, +1.2
Short 1 NQ 9623.25, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 9626.0, 2624.0, +8.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 9612.0, 9612.0, +2.25, -2.25
Long 1 RTY 1683.0, -0.1
Long 1 RTY 1680.5, +1.0
Long 1 RTY 1677.5, +2.0
Total NQ +8.0
Total RTY +4.2

Mon Feb 17 Pres Day, Mkt's Closed

Fri Feb 14 Trade Signal Summary

20200214
Short 2 YM 29418, 29418, +7, +33
Long 1 YM 29374, -0
Long 1 NQ 9597.0, -2.25
Long 1 NQ 9596.0, -2.25
Long 2 NQ 9594.0, 9594.0, +5.0, +11.0
Total YM +40
Total NQ +11.5

Thur Feb 13 Trade Signal Summary

20200213
Long 1 YM 28388, +20
Short 1 YM 28433, +20
Short 1 NQ 9580.5, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 9586.0, 9586, +2.00, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 9592.0, 9592.0, +3.0, +13
Long 1 YM 29373, -0
Total YM +40
Total NQ +12.75

Wed Feb 12 Trade Signals and Journal

20200212
Short 2 YM 29461, 29462, +24, +16
Long 1 NQ 9562.5, +10.5
Total YM +40
Total NQ +10.5

Two days in a row of losing trades to a maximum allowable daily loss limit should have serious consequences. That's what trade simulators are for. Returning to some consistency, therefore, is critical for the trade behavior allowed in one's Trade Plan. Just so, that after a day of losses, not to feel too guilty when one's 1st Frame trade goal nearly appears after taking just one or two initial trades. Close the register, and go to coffee, you don't want to give it back and end up in the penalty box simulator on the third day...

Tues Feb 11 Trade Signals and Journal

20200211
Short 1 RTY 1674.6, -1.4
Short 1 YM 29300, -7
Short 3 RTY 1675.5, 1676.2, 1676.2, -1.5, -0.7, -0.7
Shorrt 2 YM 29320, 29320, -7, -7
Short 1 NQ 9568.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 9569.0, 9569.0, -2.25, -2.25
Short 3 RTY 1677.6, 1677.6, 1677.6, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Short 4 RTY 1680.5, 1680.5, 1680.6, 1680.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5
Short 1 ES 3370. -0.25
Short 1 NQ 9585.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 9591.0, 9591.0, +5.0, -0.0
Short 2 YM 29352, 29352, +20, +20
Short 2 NQ 9608.0, 9608.0, +3.0, +10.0
Total ES -0.25
Total YM +19
Total NQ +9.5
Total RTY -12.4

Persistent Trend Days often exhibit a phenom where not all contracts move at once. It also occasionally exhibits the phenom that catapults a recent laggard into sort of rocket-catsup mode... where what has become expected as commonplace expectation then becomes fuel for stop-loss running of now imprudent expectations.. Just so did the RTY catch me off-guard today. And to make matters MUCH worse, I kept at the shorting of the recent weak player into some serious losses.
Don't expect the market to meet your expectations. The market functions on surprise. Do consider the signals of the other contracts which, when out of sync earlier, displayed the leadership behavior then that the trader finds so much in surprise in the laggard today.

Mon Feb 10 Trade Signal Summary

20200210
Short 2 ES 3327.75, 3327.75, +1.5, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 9438.0, +8.0
Short 2 YM 29120, 29119, +10, -15
Short 2 YM 29135, 29135, +20, -0
Short 1 NQ 9456.0, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 9461.0, 9461.0, +3.0, -1.0
Short 3 YM 29135, 29135, 29143, -7, -0, +15
Short 1 YM 29148, -3
Short 1 ES 3337.75, -1.25
Short 2 YM 29155, 29155, -8, -8
Short 1 NQ 9470.0, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 9478.0, 9478.0, +5.0, +10.0
Total ES +2.25
Total YM +4
Total NQ +20.5

Fri Feb 7 Trade Signal Summary

20200207
Short 1 RTY 1668.0, +3.0
Long 1 YM 29099, +20
Short 1 RTY 1664.2, -0.2
Short 1 YM 29165, -0
Short 1 NQ 9420.0, -0.25
Short 1 RTY 1665.2, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 9423.5, -1.5
Short 2 RTY 1666.2, 1666.2, +0.8, +2.0
Total YM +20
Total NQ -1.75
Total RTY +2.1

Thur Feb 6 Trade Signal Summary

20200206
Long 1 YM 29240, -7
Long 2 YM 29223, 29223, -7, -7
Long 3 YM 29217, 29217, 29217, +20, +20, +30
Long 2 RTY 1678.6, 1678.8, +1.2, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 9394.0, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 9398.0, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 9400.0, -1.0
Short 1 NQ 9416.0, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 9416.5, +8.5
Long 2 NQ 9392.0, 9392.5, +2.0, +15.5
Total YM +49
Total NQ +19.0
Total RTY +4.2

Wed Feb 5 Trade Signal Summary

20200205
Short 2 YM 29080, 29081, +12, -2
Short 1 YM 29077, +21
Short 1 RTY 1675.5, -0.1
Long 1 NQ 9366.0, -0.25
Long 1 NQ 9367.0, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 9366.75, +8.0
Long 2 RTY 1670.0, 1669.9, +1.0, -0.2,
Long 1 YM 28968, -7
Long 1 NQ 9350.0, -2.25
Long 1 NQ 9345.0, +5.0
Long 1 YM 28956, +30
Long 1 YM 28951, -0
Total YM +54
Total NQ +9.5
Total RTY +0.7

Tues Feb 4 Trade Signal Summary

20200204
Short 1 NQ 9263.0, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 9267.0, 9265.0, -2.25, +3.0
Short 2 RTY 1659.2, 1659.2, +2.0, +4.0
Short 2 YM 28787, 28787, +12, +20
Short 1 ES 3294.5, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 9282.0, +5.0
Total ES +3.0
Total YM +32
Total NQ +3.5
Total RTY +6.0

Mon Feb 3 Trade Signal Summary

20200203
Short 4 RTY 1631.0, 1631.0, 1632.0, 1632.0, +0.3, -0.0, +1.2., -1.1
Short 1 NQ 9112.5, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 9118.0, 9118.0, +3.75, -4.0
Short 2 YM 28530, 28530, -12, -12
Short 2 RTY 1635.4, 1635.4, +1.0, -1.3
Short 2 NQ 9147.0, 9147.0, +3.0, +22.75,
Short 1 NQ 9154.0, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 9154.25, +5.0
Total YM -24
Total NQ +28.5
Total RTY +0.1