Wed May 5 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210505
 
Short 1 RTY 2246.4, +8.1
 
Total RTY +8.1
 
No, this was not a one-and-done day.   After yesterday's persistent grind, today was far more likely to give swing signals in the 1st frame..     but it was apparently one-and-done for my cable internet, because after just a few minutes, it began kicking me out of our VF Trade Room Zoomcast, and eventually shut down altogether.    ....technician on the way...   stay tuned, tomorrow's room somewhat in doubt..      all the best otherwise... 

Tues May 4 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210504
 
Long 5 MNQ 13611.25, 13611.25, 13611.25, 13611.25, 13611.25, 13611.5, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, 
Long 1 YM 33824, -8
Long 5 MNQ 13586.75, 13586.75, 13586.75, 13586.75, 13586.75, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0,
Long 5 MNQ 13581.75, 13581.75, 13581.75, 13581.75, 13581.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 
Long 5 MES 4144.25, 4144.25, 4144.25, 4144.25, 4144.25, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, 
Long 5 MNQ  13540.75, 13540.75, 13540.75, 13540.75, 13540.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75,
Long 1 RTY 2227.8, -0.8
Long 1 RTY 2227.2, -1.4 
Long 1 RTY 2225.4,  -1.5 
Long 10 MNQ 13513.5, 13513.5, 13513.5, 13513.5, 13513.5, 13514.25, 13514.25, 13514.25, 13514.25, 13514.25, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5,
Long 10 MNQ 13599.50, 13599.50, 13599.50, 13599.50, 13599.50, 13503.75, 13503.75, 13503.75, 13503.75, 13503.75, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0,
Long 5 MNQ   13474.25, 13474.25, 13474.25, 13474.25, 13474.25, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, 
Long 5 MNQ 13470.0, 13470.0, 13470.0, 13470.0, 13470.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, 
Long 5 MNQ  13459.5, 13459.5, 13459.5, 13459.5, 13459.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, 
Long 5 MNQ  13429.25, -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, 
Long 5 MNQ 13404.5, 13404.5, 13404.5, 13404.5, 13404.5, 13404.5, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, 
Long 5 MNQ  13396.5, 13396.5, 13396.5, 13396.5, 13396.5, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, 
 
Total MES -7.5
Total MNQ +92.5
Total YM -8
Total RTY -3.7
 
I practically preach the dominance of the Test-n-Reject Day Model, and so with it, the fading of the first trend in order to position for the complex move back up...    But what do you do with such grinding, endless 1st trends that require repeated re-entries and stop-outs clear until the Noon Hour?    ....you try to survive for another day...     These are easily the most challenging days I've ever experienced.    
 
one other point...   take note of the moment you personally capitulate from all further efforts..    the event you seek is close at hand....  

Mon May 21 2021 Trade Signals & Journal

20210503
 
 
Short 1 RTY 2284.5, -1.5
Short 1 RTY 2286.7, +5.5
Short 5 MNQ  13884.0, 13884.0, 13884.0, 13884.0, 13884.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 
Short 5 MNQ 13891.50, 13891.50, 13891.50, 13891.50,  +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, 
Short 5 MNQ 13908.0, 13908.0, 13908.0, 13908.0, 13908.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Short 5 MNQ 13921.0, 13921.0, 13921.0, 13921.0, 13921.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0,
Short 5 MNQ 13924.25, 13924.25, 13924.25, 13924.25, 13924.25, +12.25, +12.25, +12.25, +12.25, +12.25,
Short 5 MNQ 13925.0, 13925.0, 13925.0, 13925.0, 13925.0, -5.50, -5.50, -5.50, -5.50, -5.50,
Short 5 MNQ 13946.25, 13946.25, 13946.25, 13946.25, 13946.25, +21.5, +21.5, +21.5, +21.5, +21.5,
 Long 5 MNQ 13889.25, 13889.25, 13889.25, 13889.25, 13889.25, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 
Long 5 MNQ 13883.25, 13883.25, 13883.25, 13883.25, 13883.25, -1.25,  -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25,
Long 5 MNQ 13864.0, 13864.0, 13864.0, 13864.0, 13864.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 
Long 5 MNQ 13850.0, 13850.0, 13850.0, 13850.0, 13850.0, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25,
Long 5 MNQ 13844.25, 13844.25, 13844.25, 13844.25,  -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, 
Long 5 MNQ 13791.5,  13791.5, 13791.5, 13791.5, 13791.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5,
Long 5 MNQ 13785.0, 13785.0, 13785.0, 13785.0, 13785.0, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25,
 Long 5 MNQ 13780.25, 13780.25, 13780.25, 13780.25, 13780.25, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, 
 
Total RTY +4.0
Total MNQ +142.75
 
The dreaded Two-Side Test-n-Reject Day Model...       Usually, the first trend of the day is false, and the second is true.  That makes the high percentage game of fading the first trend in order to position for the more likely bound.  But what if can't find the turn of the first trend?   And you put no profits under your belt, and find yourself unpositioned for the ensuing bounce, as I was today?   

Hungry for a trade is how you find yourself mentally.   ...not a good place to be.     That 2nd trend is often accompanied by surprises as it extends beyond resistances.   Initially, I got caught trying to short that trend because there was no signal to buy as the first selling trend in the Nasdaq developed below the ORB.   As a trader that leaves you looking for trades as price works back up.   And with the observation that there was insufficient WorkDone accomplished in that first low, your expectations are that the rise in price is merely a pullback, and should be shorted.    
 
But as price developed into that rise, the MNQ exploded through a bevy of resistance numbers otherwise ideal to have reversed that bounce back into the bear.    Now the bull and the surprise 2nd trend seems to have been confirmed.    And what does this do to your psychology and trend prejudice?    
 
If positioned successfully as that 2nd trend reaches a short term climax, you see no harm in taking a short with the expectations that it is at least worthy of a scalp.   And as it does indeed begin to relax, you begin to look for the buying opportunities to get in sync with that 2nd trend that failed to materialize at the lows of the 1st trend sell-off.    So naturally, you cover your successful short position and begin to watch for that buy opportunity....   
 
Only it doesn't materialize, and presented with a new "2nd trend" back in the direction of the orignal 1st trend, which you mistakenly learned was 'false', you naturally step in to longs too soon, only to be further surprised, at the extent to which this selling wipes through every support level NQ had established for the last month.   
 
It is no comfort in the meantime, that the rest of the market, having ignored the huge rally advance, now was mostly ignoring the selling too, making the NQ the only game in town to stay with.
   
What do you do?    Sure, you'd like again to sell a bounce, believing this time the down trend is true...   but they give you no bounces to short into... just more selling breaks against extreme climax readings that prior experiences with more 'normal' days have taught you to avoid.    
 
You keep your head, keep an eye on the exhaustion levels, buy-stop the market as those exhaustion levels are breached, and when the expected vacuum is filled post-stop runs, you move your own stops in tight, and suffer minimal losses until a more complex bounce can finally afford you a decent enough target to make up for losses and produce decent net gains.    
 
You could also stay out on days like this and wait for tomorrow...    but what would be the fun in that....          cya manana

Fri Apr 30 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210430
 
Short 5 MNQ 13878.5, 13878.5, 13878.5, 13878.5, 13878.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, 
Short 5 MNQ 13891.25, 13891.25, 13891.25, 13891.25, 13891.25, +9.5, +9.5, +9.5, +9.5, +9.5, 
Short 10 MNQ 13923.25, 13923.25, 13923.25, 13923.25, 13923.25, 13924.25, 13924.25, 13924.25, 13924.25, 13924.25, +3.0, +3.0, +3.0, +3.0, +3.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, 
Short 10 MNQ 13948.75, 13948.75, 13948.75, 13948.75, 13948.75, 13948.0, 13948.0, 13948.0, 13948.0, 13948.0, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, +4.75, +4.75, +4.75, +4.75, +4.75, 
Short 5 MNQ 13949.25, 13949.25, 13949.25, 13949.25, 13949.25, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, 
Long 5 MNQ 13898.25, 13898.25, 13898.25, 13898.25, 13898.25, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, 
Long 5 MNQ 13985.25, 13985.25, 13985.25, 13985.25, 13985.25, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, 
 
Total MNQ +32.5
 
Although not as brutally challenging as yesterday, today offered no gimmie's at the turns either, nor was there any classic long entry model to work from for riding the first trend up to and through the gap close.  About the best I can say is that I did not suffer two losing days in a row, and so avoided spending this coming Monday's early action in the simulator box for the Behavior Governor that is triggers by two days in a row of net losing trades.  
 
There's always next week....     and a good weekend to all...
 

Thur Apr 29 2021 Trade Signals

20210429 

Long 5 MNQ 14007.0, 14007.0, 14007.0, 14007.0, 14007.0, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, 
Long 5 MNQ 14005.25, 14005.25, 14005.25, 14005.25, 14005.25, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0,
Long 5 MNQ 14001.25, 14001.25, 14001.25, 14001.25, 14001.25, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, 
Long 5 MNQ 13991.50, 13991.50, 13991.50, 13991.50, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75,
Long 5 MNQ 13983.75, 13983.75, 13983.75, 13983.75, 13983.75, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25,
Long 5 MNQ 13982.0, 13982.0, 13982.0, 13982.0, 13982.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0,
Long 5 MNQ 13980.25, 13980.25, 13980.25, 13980.25, 13980.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25,
Long 5 MNQ 13957.75, 13957.75, 13957.75, 13957.75, 13957.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 
Long 10 MNQ 13925.75, 13925.75, 13925.75, 13925.75, 13925.75, 13927.50, 13927.50, 13927.50, 13927.50, 13927.50, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, 
Long 5MNQ 13933.5, 13933.5, 13933.5, 13933.5, 13933.5, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25,
Long 1 RTY  2295.5, -0.9
Long 10 MNQ  13925.0, 13925.0, 13925.0, 13925.0, 13925.0, 13925.25, 13925.25, 13925.25, 13925.25, 13925.25, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0,
Long 10 MNQ 13924.75, 13924.75, 13924.75, 13924.75, 13924.75, 13924.75, 13924.75, 13924.75, 13924.75, 13924.75,  -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5,
Short 5 MNQ 13936.5, 13936.5, 13936.5, 13936.5, 13936.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5,
Short 5 MNQ 13940.25, 13940.25, 13940.25, 13940.25, 13940.25, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75,
Short 10 MNQ 13941.75, 13941.75, 13941.75, 13941.75, 13941.75, 13940.75, 13940.75, 13940.75, 13940.75, 13940.75, +6.0, +6.0, +6.0, +6.0, +6.0, +27.50, +27.50, +27.50, +27.50, +27.50, 
 
Total MNQ -33.75
Total RTY -0.9
 
There are often early entry signals from structure to capture the initial trend thrust of the first frame.  Today, I couldn't find that entry, even though it was right in front of me in a contract that I lost focus in.   And so found myself buying on bounces, unsuccessfully about half the way down... until a big bounce at the end of the frame finally gave me a short entry I could sink my teeth into.  
 
In the early going, usually before you brain is even warmed up, the action around the ORB can be critical.  And you have to stay alert as to what contract it might be showing up in, because it may only appear in one.   
 
Today, my early focus and trade calls to sell the MNQ and the RTY on some modest structure recovery both alternated in coming close...  close enough that I ignored the ES/MES contract altogether....which of course was the only one that offered the classic Return-to-the ORB trade, that the bread-n-butter pattern entry in the book Pivots and Patterns.  
 
To my chagrin on this frustrating, losing day, one of my students took that ES short opportunity, which was so clean an in-trend play that it became a one-and-done for him.
 
Apparently, my students just are not trained well enough to alert me of my own stuff when I fail to see it....ha!   Maybe have to add that as a Chapter 11 to my 10 part course...   'When I the instructor doesn't do as he says...  wake him up.....

Wed Apr 28 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210428
 
Long 5 MNQ 13888.25, 13888.25, 13888.25, 13888.25, 13888.25, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, 
Short 5 MNQ 13920.75,  13920.75, 13920.75, 13920.75, 13920.75, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25
Short 5 MNQ 13928.75, 13928.75, 13928.75, 13928.75, 13928.75, -4.75, -4.75, -4.75, -4.75, -4.75, 
Short 5 MNQ 13943.5, 13943.5, 13943.5, 13943.5, 13943.5, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 
Short 5 MNQ 13943.75, 13943.75, 13943.75, 13943.75, 13943.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 
Short 5 MNQ 13963.75, 13963.75, 13963.75, 13963.75, 13963.75, -3.75, -3.75, -3.75, -3.75, -3.75, 
Short 10 MNQ  13968.5, 13968.5, 13968.5, 13968.5, 13968.5, 13970.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 
Long 10 MNQ 13928.75, 13928.75, 13928.75, 13928.75, 13928.75, 13929.25, 13929.25, 13929.25, 13929.25, 13929.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 
Long 10 MNQ 13914.00, 13914.00, 13914.00, 13914.00, 13914.00, 13914.5, 13914.5, 13914.5, 13914.5, 13914.5, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, 
Long 10 MNQ 13883.75, 13883.75, 13883.75, 13883.75, 13883.75, 13884.25, 13884.25, 13884.25, 13884.25, 13884.25, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 
Long 10 MNQ 13881.0, 13881.0, 13881.0, 13881.0, 13881.0, 13881.5, 13881.5, 13881.5, 13881.5, 13881.5, +15.25, +15.25, +15.25, +15.25, +15.25, +24.75, +24.75, +24.75, +24.75, +24.75, 
 
Total MNQ +122.50 
 
A rough road just to get back to about what I started with in the first place...  ...and it should have been a one-and-done day from the get-go.    
 
A simple exit rule could have kept me into that long position picked up just points above the initial crash low of the 1st Trend plunge.    ...and that management rule..?    Hold into complexity.   
 
Why did I give it up rather than doing that simple exercise that would have given me the 1st frame goal on that first position?   ...I've asked myself that a few hundred times already today...  and can come up with nothing better than "I couldn't resist running my stop up to protect the first 20 points too quickly after those 20 points arrived."  So resist it next time.   ...easier said then done..     
 
Was a similar habit in the RTY where I'd rush to protect 2 pts in early profits, only to get stopped out just before the position would have gone to +6 ...or more.   ..and these days, that would usually mean much more.   
 
But here is the more important observation, by far.  Is it the money in those profits that you are actually trying to protect when rushing up a protective stop-loss too fast?    No...  rather it is the anxiety of possible embarrassment when a position that puts a couple hundred dollars of paper in your pocket gets stop-d out at break-even.. or less.    ...and nothing reeks of stupidity more.    ...except that of rushing up your stop-loss too quickly and missing out of the entire 2nd trend move in the first place.   
 
Study the internal character profiles that rise to the surface while in the throngs of a trade in the little book, True Self, companion to the technical book Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades, both available at online book stores.


Tues Apr 27 2021 Trade Signal Summary

20210427
 
Short 5 MNQ 14020.25, 14020.25, 14020.25, 14020.25, 14020.25, -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, 
Long 5 MNQ 13992.0, 13992.0, 13992.0, 13992.0, 13992.0, -5.5, -5.5, -5.5, -5.5, -5.5, 
Long 5 M2K,  2291.0, 2291.0, 2291.0, 2291.0, 2291.0, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7,
Long 5 MNQ 13983.75, 13983.75, 13983.75, 13983.75, 13983.75, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0,
Long 5 M2K 2289.0, 2289.0, 2289.0, 2289.0, 2289.0, +6.1, +6.1, +6.1, +6.1, +6.1,
Long 5 MNQ 13970.5, 13970.5, 13970.5, 13970.5, 13970.5, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 
Long 5 MNQ 13920.25, 13920.25, 13920.25, 13920.25, 13920.25, +19.75, +19.75, +19.75, +19.75, +19.75, 
Short 5 MNQ  13960.50, 13960.50, 13960.50, 13960.50, 13960.50, +23.75, +23.75, +23.75, +23.75, +23.75
 
Total M2K +27.0
Total MNQ +160.0

Mon Apr 26 2021 Trade Signal Summary

20210426 
 
Short 5 MNQ 13938.75, 13938.75, 13938.75, 13938.75, 13938.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75 
Short 5 MNQ 13950.0, 13950.0, 13950.0, 13950.0, 13950.0, +19.25, +19.25, +19.25, +19.25, +19.25  
Short 5 MNQ 13939.25, 13939.25, 13939.25, 13939.25, 13939.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25 
Short 10 MNQ 13943.75, 13943.75, 13943.75, 13943.75, 13943.75, 13943.25, 13943.25, 13943.25, 13943.25, 13943.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25,+5.0, +5.0, +5.0, +5.0, +5.0, 
Short 5 MNQ 13962.25,  13962.25, 13962.25, 13962.25, 13962.25, +11.5, +11.5, +11.5, +11.5, +11.5 
Long 5 MNQ 13946.75,  13946.75, 13946.75, 13946.75, 13946.75, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, 
Long 5 MNQ 13947.75, 13947.75, 13947.75, 13947.75, 13947.75, 13947.75, +10.0, +10.0, +10.0, +10.0, +10.0,  
Short 5 MNQ 13981.5, 13981.5, 13981.5, 13981.5, 13981.5, -4.5, -4.5, -4.5, -4.5, -4.5 
Short 1 RTY 2295.3, -1.5 
Short 5 MNQ 13988.0, 13988.0, 13988.0, 13988.0, 13988.0, +12.5, +12.5, +12.5, +12.5, +12.5, 
 
Total MNQ 226.25 
Total RTY -1.5

Fri Apr 23 Trade Signals & Journal

20210423
 
Short 5 MNQ 13820.25, 13820.25, 13820.25, 13820.25, 13820.25,+21.5, +21.5, +21.5, +21.5, +21.5, 
Short 5 MNQ 13823.0, 13823.0, 13823.0, 13823.0, 13823.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0,
Short 5 MNQ 13825.5, 13825.5, 13825.5, 13825.5, 13825.5, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, 
Short 5 MNQ 13836.25, 13836.25, 13836.25, 13836.25,  13836.25,  -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75,  
Short 5 MNQ 13838.25, 13838.25, 13838.25, 13838.25, 13838.25,  -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0,  
Short 5 MNQ 13851.50, 13851.50, 13851.50, 13851.50, 13851.50,  +17.5, +17.5, +17.5, +17.5, +17.5, 
Long 5 MNQ 13826.75, 13826.75, 13826.75, 13826.75, 13826.75, +15.75,  +15.75, +15.75, +15.75, +15.75, 
 
Total MNQ +121.25
 
Underestimating the underlying strength in the bull has always been a weakness.  It always seems understandable when bears rip through one level of support after another... after all, doesn't it just seem like the inevitable weight of gravity finally having its way..    But for the bulls, where does this rocket fuel for these Moon shots come from?   
 
One clue today was the scar left from the sudden news collapse at the very highs of the previous day.  Price wants the total recovery of these air pockets when the underlying trend is still in play.   Since the day often starts out in swings around the ORB, good gains can be made just playing those swings.   But the thing to avoid at all costs is attempting to step in front of the rocket ship as begins to leave Earth's gravity.  For thinking that it's done enough as those previous highs are approached denies how much power the thrusts can bring when there is simply no further atmosphere to contain it...   and on she goes... 
...and a good weekend to all...

Thur Apr 22 2021 Trade Signals

20210422
 
Long 5 MNQ 13872.75, 13872.75, 13872.75, 13872.75, 13872.75, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, 
Long 5 MNQ  13858.25, 13858.25, 13858.25, 13858.25, 13858.25, +21.5, +21.5, +21.5, +21.5, +21.5, 
Short 5 MNQ  13912.25, 13912.25, 13912.25, 13912.25, 13912.25, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, 
Short 5 MNQ 13914.0, 13914.0, 13914.0, 13914.0, 13914.0, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, 
Long 5 MNQ  13907.0, 13907.0, 13907.0, 13907.0, 13907.0, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, 
Short 1 RTY  2256.2, +3.1
 
Total MNQ  +67.5
Total RTY +3.1