Tues May 31 Trade Summary

20160531
Long 1 TF 1152.1, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1152.0, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1152.6, +0.4
Long 2 TF 1151.6, 1151.8, -0.3, -0.5
Long 2 YM 17852, 17850, -6, -7
Short 1 TF 1155.00, +1.1
Total YM -13
Total TF -0.4

Fri May 27 Trades & Journal

20160527
Short 1 TF 1141.9, -1.0
Short 1 NQ 4498.25, -3.0
Short 2 NQ 4503.0, 4503.0, +3.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1144.2, 1144.7, -0.9, +0.7
Short 1 NQ 4408.75, +12.0
Short 3 TF 1145.7, 1146.1, 1146.5, 1146.4, -1.4, +1.0, +1.2, +1.7
Total NQ +9.5
Total TF +1.3

...time to take just a moment at this Memorial Day weekend to remember all those who have gone before us, especially our veterans who made the ultimate sacrifice on the altar of freedom. I salute them all... Freedom First !! There is no peace without freedom. And there is more peace in the midst of all hell's gunfire fought for it than in all the deadly silence of sustained truce while under the oppression of tyranny. Let's us never forget the cost of freedom...and moreover, especially in current times, let us never be apologetic for having stood and fought for freedom, that those who make apologies for freedom's principles only do so in the warm place of security paid for by the precious blood spilled by our loved ones they deem to make apology for. Shameful. So for those who remain true, I salute all. Semper Fi.

Thurs May 26 Trade Summary

20160526
Short 2 TF 1143.3, 1143.3, +1.3, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1139.0, 1139.3, +0.9, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 4482.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1141.0, -0.0
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +4.8

Wed May 25 Trade Summary

20160525
Long 1 NQ 4453.0, +6.0
Short 1 NQ 4465.25, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1137.2, -1.4
Short 2 NQ 4472.0, 4472.0, +2.0, -2.0
Short 3 TF 1138.9, 1138.7, 1138.6, -1.4, -1.5, -1.6
Short 3 TF 1141.2, 1141.0, 1141.1, +1.5, +1.5, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1138.0, 1137.5, +0.2, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1137.1, +1.3
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF -1.2

Tues May 24 Trades & Journal

20160524
Short 3 TF 1121.5, 1121.5, 1121.8, +0.2, -0.0, -1.4
Short 1 NQ 4386.75, -3.5
Short 3 TF 1125.4, 1125.2, 1125.5, +1.0, -1.4, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1126.4, 1126.4, 1126.4, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5
Short 4 TF 1126.4, 1126.4, 1126.4, 1126.4, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1127.4, 1127.7, -0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1128.7, -0.5
Total TF -8.0


Some days the market is just humbling. And salt to the wound, I ignored the early buy signal after an 8 point gap up because it just seemed to rich.... and left a quota plus of losses on the table shorting sell signals at extremes of some 15 further points higher... I'd feel really bad about it if it didn't leave one some amazed... The market can do anything... and eventually will. But the Persistent Trend Model is not the model of high percentage. First frame volatile swings and Test-n-Reject occur each month almost three times as much. So I will return to my current Trade Plan tomorrow knowing this kind of action is not the norm, but the exception.

Mon May 23 Trade Summary

20160523
Short 1 TF 1110.4, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1114.2, 1114.0, +1.3, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1111.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1114.6, -1.4,
Short 2 TF 1116.2, 1116.3, +1.0, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1116.6, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1114.4, -0.6
Total TF +3.8

Fri May 20 Trade Summary

20160520
Short 2 NQ 4347.0, 4347.0, +2.0, -2.0
Short 3 TF 1102.4, 1102.4, 1103.0, -0.0, +1.0, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 4360.75, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1104.0, 1104.0, 1104.5, 1105.2, 1105.8, +1.2, -1.1, -1.6, -1.4, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 4378.0, +4.0
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF -2.9

Thurs May 19 Trade Summary

20160519
Short 2 TF 1100.5, 1100.4, +1.4, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1193.5, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1191.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1191.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1187.3, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1190.0, -0.4
Total TF +5.3

Wed May 18 Trades & Journal

20160518
Short 1 TF 1095.0, +0.9
Short 3 TF 1098.6, 1199.4, 1199.6, -1.6, -1.4, -1.4
Short 2 NQ 4331.5, -1.0, -1.0
Short 3 TF 1101.9, 1101.9, 1101.9, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1104.3. 1104.3, 1104.3, +1.0, +1.0, -0.3
Short 3 TF 1106.3, 1106.3, 1106.0, +2.3, +1.3, +1.4
Long 2 TF 1102.2, 1102.0, +0.5, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1101.3, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1100.4, 1099.9, -1.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1099.7, 1099.7, +1099.7, +1.4, +1.5
Total TF +3.1


The most common of all day models is the Test-n-Reject. But the last 3 days have all seen Persistent Trend Day models, albeit in opposite directions. If the most common of all day models is Test-n-Reject, then the first trend tends to be false, and odds therefore favor in fading it. But that's not so easy to know during the action, and today, the market stretched the 1st Trend of what seems to be turning out to be a Persistent Trend into 3 full series of thrusts before enacting a turn. After a set of day crushing stp-outs, that turn at the 3rd series restored my P&L, and allowed me some places to buy pullbacks, but my loss limit was at the rim of a day-cancelling requirement before it arrived. How to handle being out of Trade Plan margin for the day when another entry signal finally appears? .... very carefully, and with tight stops so as to keep the losses of that final effort to a minimum should it also fail to show production. Stay calm. Stay focused. The action can beat your psyche into a state of blurred vision. See what's in front of you. Trade what's in front of you until you've either hit your loss limit, your profit goal, your maximum number of allowed trades per frame, or the frame clock you are trading runs out on your efforts. Tomorrow is another day. Be sure your P&L is still there for it. ....

Tues May 17 Trade Summary

20160517
Long 1 TF 1107.6, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1113.6, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1108.6, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1108.3, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1107.4, +0.5, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1112.2, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1113.5, 1114.5, 1114.3, -0.0, +1.0, +1.5
Total TF +4.7

Mon May 16 Trades & Journal

20160516
Long 2 TF 1108.7, 1109.0, -1.5, -1.5
Short 3 TF 1109.7, 1109.7, 1109.9, +1.3, +1.3, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1108.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1108.4, +2.5
Short 2 TF 1113.5, 1113.5, +0.7, +1.4
Total TF +5.7

Overcoming losses is critical in trading, but it comes with a precise trade entry requirement. When stp'd out, you not only can re-enter the trade if the Trade Model is still intact, you MUST re-enter the trade. Since price is 1/3 of the critical elements required for a Trade Entry Model, it cannot be ignored, but there is a whole grid of price levels facing the trading range for the day, and the other critical elements, momentum and fractal structure, can force price to re-intersect as successive price levels, stopping you out of a position during volatile price spikes. If the model is still intact, it becomes even better at a greater price extreme than it was just earlier, thus re entering the trade with a greater number of contracts is not only valid, but required if you are to reposition for something greater than your stp-out losses. It comes as additional comfort to the contrary trader that this violates two otherwise widely accepted norms and rules forbidden to the greater pool of futures traders. Namely, first, never sell new highs or buy new lows, and secondly, never add to a losing position. As a whole, I thank the trading community at large for adhering strictly to these two rules, as it puts most of my trades among the the slimmest minority of fresh trader commitments, and thus increases the probabilities of their success. Think outside the box. Question everything you've been told about trading. Reverse engineer your methodology to the places where you've been repeatedly stp-d out in the past as the most desirable places to enter trades. ...and ask yourself, "What might be the criteria to have identified those places as Trade Entry Models in the first place?"

Fri May 13 Trade Summary

20160513
Short 1 TF 1106.3, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1107.5, 1107.5, -1.4, -1.4
Short 4 TF 1109.8, 1109.8, 1109.8 1109.8, +1.6, +1.6, +2.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1104.5, +1.2
Total TF +4.2

Thurs May 12 Trade Summary

20160512
Short 1 TF 1116.2, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1113.7, +2.2
Long 2 TF 1113.0, 1112.6, -0.0, +1.8
Long 1 TF 1113.0, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1113.3, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1110.8, +2.1
Long 1 TF 1107.7, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1107.9, -0.5
Total TF +6.3

Wed May 11 Trades & Journal

20160511
Long 1 NQ 4388.5, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1120.6, 1120.7, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1120.1, 1120.1, +0.7, +1.1
Long 2 YM 17784, 11784, -7, -7
Long 2 YM 17766, 17766, +14, +19
Short 1 TF 1122.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1121.6, +1.2
Total YM +19
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +2.6

Sometimes entry models are incomplete, or arrive with negative filters that shift entry to retest patterns or multi-contract confirmation. Sometimes these filters keep you out of big winning trades, and sometimes they prevent you early entry against the prevailing trend. Today, we faced several of these against price extremes in the TF, the YM and the NQ, but always at different points, so as to lack that extra multi-contract confirmation we include in our models. An alternative to staying out altogether when entry models are thin, is to take a minimal small lot position against a tight stp. One or two of such entries, if they fail, has a minimal affect on the day's profit goal. But even the slightest hesitation in those can often mean you miss the trade altogether. Stay focused. Have a Trade Plan that includes all contingencies and alternatives. Let 'If this, then what' be your modus operandi.

Tues May 10 Trade Summary

20160510
Long 2 TF 1115.4, 1115.8, +1.0, -1.4
Short 1 TF 1118.6, -1.0
Short 3 TF 1121.0, 1121.7, 1121.1, +1.0, +0.7, +0.5
Total TF +0.8

Mon May 9 Trade Summary

20160509
Short 2 TF 1114.2, 1114.2, -1.4, -1.4
Short 2 NQ 4344.25, 4344.75, +4.0, +4.0
Long 1 NQ 4340.0, +8.0
Short 1 TF 1117.3, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1116.9, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 4349.25, -1.25
Long 2 TF 1109.6, 1109.5, +1.0, +2.0
Total NQ +15.75
Total TF +2.5

Fri May 6 No trades, away from market

Thurs May 5 Trade Summary

20160505
Long 2 TF 1110.2, 1109.7, +3.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1108.6, +1.3
Total TF +5.3

Wed May 4 Trade Summary

20160504
Short 1 NQ 4307.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1113.5, +1.3
Long 1 TF 1113.5, +1.8
Short 2 TF 1120.5, 1121.6, -0.3, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1122.6, 1122.4, +2, +1.4
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +4.8

Tues May 3 Trades and Journal

20160503
Short 1 TF 1126.7, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1121.9, 1121.7, -1.0, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1119.6, 1119.5, -1.4, +1.0
Long 3 TF 1118.9, 1118.6, 1118.6, +3.0, +0.7, +1.0
Total TF +6.3

Always remember to 'pay for the trade' with partial exits. This is the problem with shying away from a 2nd or 3rd unit when the entry model warrants it. Trading with a 1-lot position denies you this important part of the management strategy. There are signals that arrive with a decent swing for 2nd contract profits, and there are those that signal an entry but only move far enough to get that initial profit for a partial exit. You can't assume that just because the entry signal appeared, the market will cooperate with a good swing. Sometimes, its no more than the proverbial dead cat bounce... but that bounce may be just the needed distance to pay for the trade.... Stay focused. Enter your trades based on models with a history of structural correlation. Then, manage your trades as if the position will NOT work. Too many traders do it the other way around, entering trades because they think the market is trying to move in one direction or the other, then manage the trade as if it MUST work. This produces a day with too often with more losses than gains.

Mon May 2 Trade Summary

20160502
Long 1 TF 1126.8, +2.7
Short 2 NQ 43420, 4341.0, +8.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1125.4, +1.5
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +4.2