Thur Jul 31 Trades & Journal

20140731
Short 1 TF 1133.1, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1132.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1133.2, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1134.2, 1133.8, +2.5, +0.7
Short 1 ES 1949.5, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1126.9, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1126.1, +1.0
Total ES +4.0
Total TF +3.8

The action of a big bear move after a big opening gap can be a little confusing. The initial choppiness seems a tug-a-war between the ensuing trend and the immediate oversold condition such gaps produce. That can make breakdown triggers less inviting, and today, I let those feelings about the action deter me from the better trades. When the big bear comes... and eventually it will... Risks in taking more of the breakdown triggers that action might be choppy must be endured. For those breakdown triggers that do appear within the Trade Plan, have confidence. They're no riskier than the bounces and far less risky than fading the unraveling price decline. Come the market prepared to act decisively. Trade the Plan, not the action.

Wed Jul 30 Trades & Journal

20140730
Short 1 TF 1147.4, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1145.5, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1146.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1147.9, +4.0
Long 2 TF 1142.1, 1142.1, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1141.7, 1141.7, 1142.0, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Short 1 ES 1967.25, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1144.8, 1144.6, +3.0, +1.5
Total ES +1.50
Total TF +9.0


Many FOMC days are dead ducks going into the news, but seems today the anticipation WAS the game, or at least is my impression as I wrap up the 1st Frame trading. Mostly stuck to plan today, but have to be grateful for catching a 2nd big down draft after losing almost all of the profits of the 1st big 4 pt short earlier on. Whatever made me try so hard to get positioned at exactly the wrong place to be long is worth some further reflection, and I need to revisit those moments in quiet mode for a few minutes to remember where my head was at that potential turn that failed... The best source of trade improvement is in your own trade history. "What were you thinking at the turn?" is a question worth repeating as an exercise each day. There's so much rich wisdom to be garnered from your decisions. Or in the words of the wise sage Heraclitus, "I searched myself."

Tues Jul 29 Trades & Journal

20140729
Short 2 NQ 3967.0, 3967.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 2 YM 16936, 16938, +13, +6,
Short 1 TF 1139.3, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1140.6, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1141.6, 1141.6, +0.7, +0.6
Long 1 NQ 3970.75, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1141.2, +1.6
Short 2 TF 1144.7, 1145.0, +1.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1146.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1145.7, +0.7
Total NQ +3.0
Total YM +19
Total TF +4.8


One of the most difficult aspects of taking breakouts is the consideration given to the resistance or support price faces just upon breakout. Why get involved in a position that is about to hit a wall? But often, price dances around just shy of that same support/resistance number with a bit of complexity in wave structure that can serve as a 'pre-breakout' pause pattern. This concept can serve as a sort of setting stone for price to get better footing on, as if it needed a fulcrum for better leverage. I past on such a breakout today that should have been in my Trade Plan except for the fact that I had just hit my minimum quota as the 1st Frame was coming to an end. That's not a bad practice to quit at such times, but does come in conflict with another market behaviorism that I have failed to take advantage of a lot, and mentioned it just the other day here in the journal: that of missing a larger potential turn just as the market comes out of the 1st Frame. I don't have a firm resolution to this quandary as of just yet, but will continue to cite it here in the journal and perhaps reach a better conclusion as to how to proceed in such cases.... a last trade before the final wire versus a trade opp that although involves a breakout, could be coming at a major swing point in the day. Resolving this conflict should come in the form of a rule. Once in play, rules tend to eliminate thinking. No thinking allowed while trading.... Stay disciplined. Stick to a plan. Make the Trade Plan clear enough to follow in most all market circumstances.

Mon Jul 28 Trades & Journal

20140728
Long 2 TF 1135.5, 1135.5, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1132.7, 1132.7, +0.7, +2.6
Short 1 TF 1132.1, -0.5
Long 1 ES 1963.75, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1131.5, -0.6
Long 2 TF 1129.7, 1129.7, -0.6, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1128.9, 1128.9, +0.7, -0.0
Long 2 ES 1962.0, 1962.0, +1.75, +1.25
Short 2 TF 1127.9, 1127.9, +0.7, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1132.4, 1132.4, +0.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1131.9, +2.0
Total ES +1.75
Total TF +6.3

Had little trepidation about taking breakouts today on the way down....only the lack the emotion that often makes me balk at these did little to help the choppy conditions. And befitting the usual laws of the universe, I gave up taking the breakdown signals just at the point where I should have tried once more. Still, I have to feel encouraged that I was able to take them fairly easily today and hope this behavior can become more habitual when such breakout models appear that match my plan again in the trading days ahead.

Fri Jul 25 No Trades, vacation day

Thurs Jul 24 Trade Summary

20140724
Long 1 YM 17030, -1
Long 1 TF 1156.7, +1.4
Short 1 YM 17052, -5
Short 2 YM 17051, 17054, +7, +20
Long 1 TF 1156.9, -0.5
Long 2 YM 17028, 17023, +5, -6
Long 3 TF 1153.6, 1153.7, 1153.1, +1.0, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1154.1, +1.0
Total YM +20
Total TF +5.6

Wed Jul 23 Trade Summary

20140723
Short 1 NQ 3967.0, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 3966.0, -1.0
Long 2 YM 16995, 16995, +7, +26
Short 2 NQ 3672.0, 3670.75, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3667.25, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1156.0, 1155.9, +0.5, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1157.5, -0.0
Total YM +33
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +1.7

Tues Jul 22 Trades & Journal

20140722
Short 2 YM 17031, 17029, -4, -5
Short 2 TF 1153.0, 1153.0, +0.7, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 3951.75, -2.0
Short 3 TF 1154.0, 1153.8, 1154.2, +1.0, -0.0, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1154.6, -0.5
Short 1 YM 17062, +9
Short 2 TF 1155.5, 1155.3, -0.7, -0.0
Long 2 YM 17055, 17055, +7, -2
Long 2 YM 17043, 17043, +5, +10
Total YM +20
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +3.0

The end of the first frame is arbitrarily defined as 11:15am ET. ....and at least that's how I've observed it all these many years. There are no bells rung on the floor, no hand signals from the pit, no announcement from the exchanges nor econ reports scheduled from the Federal Budget offices. And yet, around 11:15am, the action usually seems to change. If the day has been dull, it may finally begin to show a trend, if impulsive and volatile in the early going, it may roll-over and take a nap. It's a self-imposed limit to only trade the 1st Frame of the day, one which I established after uncovering the fractal study we named Serial Sequent. But it was not my intention to use the impending end-of-frame time to get weak about taking another trade when the day's profits were of still slightly shy of quota. That comes from an unwillingness to give up at least a modest profit in pursuit of a full daily goal. But the last signal of this frame is often one of the best on an otherwise listless day, and balking at its appearance so often lately seems to me to be now a behavior pattern and a growing bad habit. Consider the last trade of the day on its own merits. Reckon its outcome as part of the business of the day, regardless whether it diminishes a modest day, or achieves the full quota. Make the time limit more important than the dollar goal, and use the time limit to its fullest opportunity. This change might clear my head of being afraid to lose on that last trade for fear of making a mediocre day more so, and take advantage of the full frame's best opportunities until the time limit for trading has actually come to an end. Stay focused.

Mon Jul 21 Trades and Journal

20140721
Short 2 TF 1138.9, 1138.9, +0.4, +1.4
Short 3 TF 1143.2, 1143.6, 1144.0, -0.0, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1140.2, +1.2
Long 2 YM 16942, 16942, +7, +15
Long 2 TF 1138.6, 1138.8, +1.0, +0.5
Total YM +22
Total TF +7.2

We often think of trading as either long or short. But flat is a position too. And at times, when signals are in conflict, just passing on them can be the most profitable position of the day. Stay focused.

Fri Jul 18 Trades & Journal

20140718
Long 2 TF 1132.9, 1132.8, -.6, -.4
Long 1 TF 1132.2, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1132.4, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1136.6, 1136.5, -0.3, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1136.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1136.8, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1137.8, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1138.5, 1138.4, +1.7, +0.7
Short 3 NQ 3910.25, 3911.0, 3910.0, -1.25, +1.5, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1143.2, +1.5
Total NQ +1.75
Total TF +4.7

A journal is designed for constructive self-critique, and as such, those trading aspects that have been mastered tend to go unmentioned and certainly without self-applause. But working with a student yesterday reminded me how much of my own trading habits are now taken for granted. Take the aspect of the initial exit of a partial position, for instance, or simply a 1 lot position. There is little management of a 1-lot position. Attempts to make all 1-lot positions taken in the 1st Frame of day into runner's is going to be a sorely disappointing process. Nevertheless, many a beginning trader will display the same behavior in the exiting of this 1-lot whether consciously deciding to treat it like a runner or not. Far better than to depend on a trailing stp-loss order to exit at the best profit consistently is to exit the market into the action in the direction of the trade taken. This can be done by leading the market with a limit order at some concept-based level of support or resistance the ensuing action has yet to face, or simply taking advantage of a volatile swoon in the direction of your trade as a nearby wave is broken and advanced. Let the position go into the action, instead of waiting for it to come back in your face. When trading 1-lots or exiting a partial position, this is almost always more favorable than letting your trailing stp-loss be hit. Get focused on the prescribed changes to your behavior noted in your journal. And then change your habits accordingly with practice. This is your new discipline. Repeat until you own it. Then maintain it as your success depends.

Thurs Jul 17 Trade Summary

20140717
Short 2 TF 1144.6, 1144.5, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1145.8, 1145.6, +1.2, +2.3
Short 1 YM 17064, -7
Short 2 TF 1145.5, 1145.7, +0.7, +0.8
Long 1 TF 1142.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1147.3, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1142.7, +2.0
Total YM -7
Total TF +8.6

Wed Jul 16 Trade Summary

20140716
Long 1 TF 1151.1, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1151.3, 1151.4, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 YM 17049, 17047, -6, -5
Short 2 ES 1975.25, 1975.25, -0.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1153.0, 1153.0, +0.7, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1145.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1146.7, 1146.2, -0.8, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1145.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1145.1, 1145.2, +0.4, +1.7
Long 2 TF 1143.4, 1144.0, +1.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1143.9, +1.2
Total YM -11
Total ES +2.0
Total TF +3.1

Tues Jul 15 Trades & Journal

20140715
Short 2 NQ 3930.5, 3951.5, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1164.7, 1164.7, +0.7, +1.7
Long 2 TF 1160.2, 1159.2, -0.0, -0.4
Long 2 NQ 3923.75, 3923.75, +2.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1153.1, 1152.9, -0.7, -0.5,
Long 3 TF 1152.9, 1153.3, 1152.8, +1.2, +2.0, +1.2
Long 1 YM 16973, -7
Long 1 TF 1147.3, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 3897.5, +6.0
Total YM -7
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +5.2

If Test-n-Reject is indeed the more common Day Model, then at the very least it deserves more complexity and a more patient exit strategy once a 1st trend reversal has gotten started. Today, although positioned for it, I missed most of the selling excursion because I let go that position too early, and didn't give the deserved complexity any respect. I took the safe exits on the early shorts instead. The tendency when recognizing having made that error, would be to try and correct it while making subsequent trades as the trend you vacated continues. But if then forced to find counter-trend trades, this error-correction thing only adds to your mistake as the 'safe exits' to initial resistance is exactly the right thing to do in a counter-trend position. I've made that over-corrective or miss-corrective mistake plenty of times before, and today, at least can say that I didn't add to the mistake of exiting too soon in-trend by trying to exit too late in counter-trend. I guess improvements to trading can come in small increments.... ...but must find keys to an earlier awareness of the potential Day Model, as such would have benefited Day Model exit outcomes much better. Be prepared. Consider your exit strategies BEFORE the trade is filled. Question all 'easy' habits and those that make you feel more comfortable.

Mon Jul 14 Trades & Journal

20140714
Short 3 NQ 3916.5, 3916.5, 3818.25, -0.75, +0.25, +3.0
Short 2 NQ 3919.5, 1919.0, +1.0, -1.0
Long 3 TF 1161.3, 1161.1, 1160.7, -0.7, +0.7, +1.3
Long 2 TF 1159.9, 1159.6, +1.0, -0.6
Long 1 TF 1159.8, -0.8
Long 1 TF 1159.3, 1159.1, +1.5, +0.7
Total NQ +2.25
Total TF +3.1

Patience is a key element to successful trading. ...but so is striking quickly at the right time, so also a key is timely exits near the exhaustion or resistance levels. ...but when to apply patience is clearly a difficult thing to time. One thing to look for in applying some patience, is the emotional context of feeling compelled to get rid of a position that struggled so hard to finally turn. By the time it finally does, you're mentally fried, and know you might not be able to handle the even bigger emotional strain of watching it all dissipate and give up such hard earned profits even if the target hasn't been met. Then let entries at turns that really annoy and frustrate trigger a rule of behavior: once out of a messy turn but into the advancing trends with some minimum profits finally in hand, keep your trailing stp's well back. Give it some rope. To the extent of its troubles in making the turn, is potentially a stretch of undisturbed excursion. Relax. Their should be a more rewarding impulse type action when the fire of the budding trend finally takes hold in the awareness of other traders, who have been as deeply affected by the strain of the turn as have you.

Fri Jul 11 Trades & Journal

20140711
Long 2 NQ 3875.75, 3875.75, -1.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1151.2, 1151.3, +0.7, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1155.6, 1155.7, -0.4, -0.5
Short 3 NQ 3886.25, 3886.5, 3880.0, -0.0, -2.5, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1156.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1155.4, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1153.0, +2.0
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF +3.1

Today's action and outcome served to remind us how important it is to participate in the right breakout plays. One cannot always rely on fades and pullbacks alone. Although both those were the thrust of today's profits, several of those a little later failed and took me back to break-even on the day. When the right breakout signal appeared, it simply triggered no reaction or adjustment in my head. I just sat there with a long that should have then become a Stp-n-Rev position. Everything about that more complex entry model was right.... except my head. Pay attention to what you are doing. Consider the possibilities like a checklist in your brain. Assume nothing. Any sign of comfort or acquiescence in a position is a sign of an impending blind spot to outcomes. Position for the outcomes when the entries are complex. The trades will take care of themselves.

Thurs Jul 10 Trades & Journal

20140710
Short 3 NQ 3847.25, 3846.75, 3846.5, +2.0, +4.0, +8.5
Long 1 TF 1147.8, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1146.8, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1147.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1146.2, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1146.3, +2.0
Total NQ +14.5
Total TF +1.7

After the initial swings, trades became harder to find, and most arrived with a good deal of conflicting filters. Flat is a position too.

Wed Jul 9 Trades & Journal

20140709
Short 1 TF 1174.7, -0.3
Long 2 YM 16884, 16883, -7, -7
Long 2 TF 1172.7, 1172.7, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1172.5, 1172.5, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1168.7, 1168.7, +0.7, -0.7
Long 1 YM 16853, -7
Long 1 NQ 3853.0, -2.0
Long 3 TF 1167.2, 1167.2, 1166.7, +0.5, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1166.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1165.8, 1165.8, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1166.7, +2.0
Totay YM -21
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +5.4

Sometimes the action itself discourages trades, choppiness, whiplash action, etc. But this is usually just weakness on our part. The signals are there, or they reappear after stp-outs, and it simply requires bigger heart to step back into them. Thus is was today on an earlier short opportunity coming off the initial highs. Because of managing the trades itself, I lost focus on what the signals were and how those signals were being re-created. Trading requires that difficult dichotomy of being totally focused but relaxed at the same time. Note what's really in front of you and trade what you see when price fulfills an entry model you have pre-selected as part of your Trade Plan.

Tues Jul 8 Trades & Journal

20140708
Long 2 YM 16857, 16857, +7, -0
Long 1 NQ 3884.0, -0.25
Long 2 NQ 3882.5, 3882.0, -1.25, -0.75
Long 2 YM 16855, 16855, -0, -6
Long 2 NQ 3877.5, 3877.5, -1.0, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 3877.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3877.0, 3877.0, +2.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1169.9, 1169.9, +0.4, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1166.3, 1166.5, +1.4, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1163.8, +1.5
Total YM +1
Total NQ -5.25
Total TF +8.3

Although early in the day yet as I post, a 2nd Persistent Trend Day Down in row could be sign of budding bear market. ...but we've heard that before... Today, failed to get in sync with two model entry pullbacks because they failed to reach resistance. Instead, I should have had trailing sell stp's for 1-lots ready on both opportunities despite their shortcomings, so was overcautious there. But did manage to short a breakdown in the breakout trend entry model just recently added to the Plan. Breakouts remain a mental challenge to my trading, but have taken this one now several times with continued success, and want to reinforce the habit with a brief glove-clap. Focus is always critical. And today's breakdown play came with a Turn-n-Rev back to long as a critical hourly low was taken. Without the diligence to mark and monitor those lows, that Turn-n-Rev could never have been managed correctly. Stay disciplined. Don't predict; position.

Mon Jul 7 Trade Summary

20140707
Short 2 TF 1196.8, +1.4, +2.0
Short 1 YM 16924, -2
Short 1 TF 1196.4, +1.1
Long 1 TF 1193.3, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1196.3, +1.4
Short 1 YM 16955, +11
Total YM +9
Total TF +5.3

Thurs Jul 3 Trades & Journal

20140703
Long 2 TF 1201.0, 1201.2, +0.8, +1.3
Long 1 TF 1199.1, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1198.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1198.1, 1198.1, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1200.1, 1200.2, +0.7, +0.8
Short 1 TF 1201.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1202.0, 1201.9, +0.7, +0.6
Total TF +5.6

Want to wish all a great July 4th Independence Day. Is a tradition with some of my family to gather and play small-olympics with kids. Games and teams and beer and barbeque. And we even start the festivities by singing the Star Spangled Banner. Our fireworks are small... but we have big hearts... and we love this country dearly. ...and stand to be in the number who are so very very proud to be American. God bless all....

Wed Jul 2 Trade Summary

20140702
Short 2 YM 16902, 16901, +7, +8
Long 2 TF 1203.2, 1202.7, +0.9, +1.3
Long 2 TF 1102.3, 1102.4, +1.2, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1200.3, 1200.4, +0.6, +1.7
Total YM +15
Total TF +6.2

Tues Jul 1 Trades & Journal

20140701
Short 1 NQ 3858.0, -1.0
Short 1 YM 16842, +11
Short 2 NQ 3863.75, 38.62.75, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 3866.25, 3866.25, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1180.6, 1180.7, -0.7, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1202.0, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1201.8, 1201.7, 1002.2, -0.9, -0.4, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1102.8, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1203.9, +0.8
Long 2 YM 16849, 16849, +5, +15
Short 1 TF 1205.2, +1.3
Total NQ -1.0
Total YM +31
Total TF +1.4

Always tough finding way into an in-trend play on a Persistent Trend Day model. Did take a breakout that was added to Trade Plan just a couple weeks ago for the first time, and was rewarded for it ....but also took a breakout that was not in Trade Plan design.... and was duly punished for it as well. Borrowed sell signals from 3 other contracts in order to short the TF on a retest, but that failed as well. Am not ready, however, to remove all borrowing from Trade Plan, as that technique is usually far more successful... just not today. Stay focused.