Fri Apr 29 Trades & Journal

20160429
Long 1 TF 1134.6, -1.4
Long 2 YM 17677, 17688, -10, -10
Long 2 TF 1131.8, 1131.8, -1.4, -1.4
Long 3 TF 1131.8, 1131.8, 1131.8, +1.0, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1127.2, 1126.2, 1126.4, +1.0, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1131.5, +1.0
Total YM -20
Total TF +2.8

The big sell signals in Serial Sequent from the daily frame in ES, NQ and TF these past few days had their follow through this morning. And all I could do was complain yesterday about the action of yesterdays' 1st Frame dull bull grind...that today's return to impulse swing left me mentally unprepared for it, and somewhat trained to expect the same as yesterday. That's what the market does. It conditions you to a set of expectations in its action and direction, and arrives on the precipice of its true intentions in the disguise of those expectations. The the market tends to fulfill in opposites. That's why the Elliott Wavers call it the Rule of Alternation. It plays out by impulsive action going into choppy consolidation, in 1st Frame going into 2nd, in the George Taylor Three Day Cycle, in the rotation of Persistent Trend to Test-n-Reject models, in the April bull grind of recent days setting up for the 'sell May, and go away' seasonal. Look for opposites... or in the words of Heraclitus "Unless you expect the unexpected, you cannot find Truth, so hard it is to find and grasp."

Thurs Apr 28 Trade Summary

20160428
Short 3 TF 1148.0, 1149.1, 1148.6, -0.0, +1.0, -1.6
Short 2 TF 1150.2, 1149.9, +1.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1150.3, 1149.9, +1.0, -0.0
Short 3 NQ 4434.5, 4436.0, 4436.0, -3.5, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1151.3, 1151.7, -0.6, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1152.8, 1152.8, +0.3, -0.5
Short 1 Tf 1152.8, -0.5
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF +1.1

Tues Apr 26 Trade Summary

20160426
Short 2 NQ 4481.5, 4480.5, +5.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1142.9, 1142.7, -0.9, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1144.8, 1144.5, +2.3, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1140.7, -0.7
Long 4 TF 1138.0, 1137.9, 1137.0, 1136.9, -0.0, +0.5, +1.9, +0.5
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +4.8

Mon Apr 25 Trade Summary

20160425
Short 1 TF 1142.2, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1136.9, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 4453.5, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1134.8, 1134.7, -0.1, +0.7
Short 1 YM 17821, +5
Short 1 TF 1136.6, +1.2
Total YM +5
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +3.3

Fri Apr 22 Trade Summary

20160422
Short 2 YM 17946, 17945, +20, +10
Short 3 TF 1140.4, 1141.1, 1141.0, -0.0, +1.0, +2.0,
Short 1 TF 1142.3, +1.0
Total YM +30
Total TF +4.0

Thur Apr 21 Trades & Journal

20160421
Short 1 TF 1139.4, -1.4
Short 1 ES 2096.75, +2.5
Short 1 TF 1140.8, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1141.5, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 4546.25, -2.0
Total ES +2.5
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF -1.8

Traders tend to look for trades when it's convenient to arrive at work that day. "I'll just jump in and find a few trades. But the market is not always so accommodating. Today, unable to make the opening bell, I stepped in at the 2nd Trend and got stop'd out repeatedly trying to fade it. The trades normally taken had already appeared in the first hour, but I felt I 'needed' to trade, and misapplied one method in the wrong place. ...I got what I deserved. If you can't make to work on time for the opening bell, consider just watching for awhile, and take stock of what is really occurring in the bigger picture. Because from down in the weeds of a fractal algorithm, incomplete trade signals can be very deceiving.

Wed Apr 20 Trade Summary

20160420
Long 1 NQ 4517.0, +7.5
Short 1 TF 1137.2, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1139.0, 1138.7, 1138.7, +1.0, -0.0, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1137.4, 1137.7, +0.7, -1.0
Short 2 YM 17988, 17989, +13, +7
Long 1 YM 17974, -7
Long 2 YM 1796, 1797, +7, +10
Short 1 YM 17977, +20
Long 2 NQ 4522.5, 4522.5, +2.0, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1135.9, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1136.0, -1.4
Short 1 TF 1137.8, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1138.1, -0.5
Total YM +30
Total NQ +14.5
Total TF -1.0

Tues Apr 19 Trade Summary

20160419
Short 1 YM 17954, -11
Long 1 NQ 4543.5, -3.0
Long 2 NQ 4540.75, 4540.5, +5.0, +3.0
Short 2 TF 1140.6, 1140.6, +0.5, -0.8
Long 1 NQ 4543.5, +8.0
Short 1 TF 1142.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1143.6, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 4546.25, 4546.25, +2.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1141.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1139.6, 1139.6, +2.0, +1.5
Total YM -11
Total NQ +14.0
Total TF +2.2

Mon Apr 18 Trade Summary

20160418
Short 2 YM 17808, 17806, +7, -3
Long 1 NQ 4524.75, +7.0
Short 1 TF 1125.6, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 4532.75, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 4535.75, 4546.0, -2.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1129.6, -0.2
Short 2 NQ 4548.25, 4548.25, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1130.8, 1130.2, -1.2, +0.7
Short 2 NQ 4554.5, 4554.5, +2.0, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1132.6, +1.7
Short 2 NQ 4559.0, 4559.0, +2.0, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1131.8, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1130.6, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1132.3, +0.8
Total YM +4
Total NQ +6.5
Total +3.4

Fri Apr 15 Trades and Journal

20160415
Long 1 TF 1122.4, +0.9
Short 1 TF 1123.8, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1125.9, -1.4
Short 2 NQ 4546.0, 4546.26, -2.0, +2.0
Long 1 1125.5, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1127.6, -0.3
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +0.6

Some days are better for trading than others.....

Thur Apr 14 Trade Summary

20160414
Long 2 TF 1128.8, 1128.8, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1125.9, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1122.5, 1122.2, +1.3, +1.6
Total TF +3.9

Wed Apr 13 Trade Summary

20160413
Short 1 NQ 4518.75, -2.5
Long 1 TF 1110.1, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1109.5, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1112.4, 1112.5, +0.7, +1.9
Short 2 TF 1112.7, 1112.9, -0.7, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1113.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1113.5, 1113.5, +0.5, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1113.3, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1114.4, 1114.6, +2.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1113.3, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1113.5, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1114.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1114.3, 1114.7, -0.0, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1118.5, 1118.5, 1118.8, 1119.5, +0.7, -0.8, -1.4, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1121.0, 1121.0, +0.7, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1122.1, 1122.5, +1.0, +2.0
Total NQ -2.5
Total TF +3.6

Tues Apr 12 Trades & Journal

20160412
Short 1 YM 17522, +17
Short 1 TF 1092.3, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1093.8, 1093.8, +1.0, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1091.9, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1092.1, 1092.5, -0.0, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1090.3, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1088.7, 1088.7, +1.0, -0.5
Long 2 YM 17477, 17477, -7, -7
Long 2 TF 1086.8, 1087.1, +1.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1101.2, +1.0
Total YM +3
Total TF +5.4


Third day in row where breakouts worked well and were the preferred call to fades.
Friday and Monday were bear breakouts in 2nd trend Inflection Levels, after explosive 1st trends that stretched momentum to limits. ....and me stp'd out badly in Friday's 1st trend trying to find the turn to begin it all. But the 2nd trend breakdowns had very readable inflection levels, and gave a clinic on taking breakouts AFTER the turn was in, instead of fighting the frothing momentum trying to find the turn. So if you want to study breakouts, these last 3 days were good chapters on that subject. Today, the predominant breakout play did not appear at an inflection level, but was more classic Pre-breakout Pause Pattern instead, old school. But whether breakout plays arrive with Inflection Levels or classic patterns, the most important ingredient is the same: a WorkDone technical event accomplished as background to the ensuing 2nd trend trend explosion. These type of technical events base their reversals on exhaustion, a feat that tends to clear the market of all traders holding positions in the opposite direction. Cleaned out, and now attracted to participating in the trend that took them out, they switch hats only to be caught again, fighting the very direction they had intended to partake in the first place. Such is the perversity of the market. But since it's classic and textbook, why not incorporate it in a Trade Plan. The most desirable positions are those that are taken where everyone else is being stp'd out and proven wrong, thus born is the 1st Corollary to the Douglas Premise. Those market psychological concepts are available in the book Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swings Trades, but in more exhaustive detail in the upcoming book Self Recognition A treatise on mental habit patterns, and a guide to train for and navigate the psychological landscape faced by the active market trader.

Mon Apr 11 Trades & Journal

20160411
Long 1 NQ 4080.75, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1098.8, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1102.1, 1102.1, +0.5, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1104.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1100.8, +1.4
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +4.3

After a losing day, especially after a big stinker like Friday's, there's a temptation to try and recover losses ...to get back what was taken from you. This usually just leads to further mistakes. Consistency is the key, so the day after a loss is an important day to reach a daily goal and quit, just to try and reestablish that consistency. Friday was also a good lesson in what not to do when you have assumed you are right...do not extend stp-losses trying to survive when price moves outside the model price and structure zone. Just let it go. There will be more signals ahead. Also, Friday's big momentum stretch Test-n-Reject model left me trained for today's action, and so I made sure I wasn't suffering any early short positions while that momentum stretch took its course. Stay focused. Stay within Plan.

Fri Apr 8 Trades & Journal

20160408
Long 2 NQ 4490.75, 4491.25. +7.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1098.2, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1099.8, 1099.9, -1.5, -1.6
Short 3 TF 1101.5, 1101.5, 1102.2, -1.4, -1.4, -0.7
Short 4 TF 1102.05, 1102.5, 1102.5, 1102.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.4
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF -10.5


The personality of a days trend formation, sometimes referred to as 'price action', can be very alluring... and very deceptive. What the market looks like it's doing, it often is not. And in the case of the TF contract, the structure was not that unusual, but the stretched out volatility was above normal... or so at least I've tried to comfort myself with all morning, having had the biggest losing day in some months. Mistakes are the most important things you can learn from in trading. In the early stages of one's career, your mistakes and be so comprehensive and overlapping as to crowd out the proper identification of one from the other. At later stages of trading experience, one should be able to focus on just one or two critical errors in judgement that correctly identify the cause of a day's losses. and set a course of action to work on in the mental game. For today's needed clarity, I'm going to have to let it all just sit for a day or two, as I try to get my head around the best lessons today's mistakes have to offer me for trading in the days ahead. In a volatile market, you read of the entry model may, in fact, be correct, but a too-early entry can push the limits of your risk tolerance...and also your ego and confidence about the certainty of the entry ...a good weekend to all..

Thur Apr 7 Trades & Journal

20160407
Short 3 TF 1101.1, 1101.1, 1101.1, +1.0, +1.1, +1.2
Total TF +3.3

Entry Modeling is a science, trade exiting is an art. But that doesn't mean it is totally bereft of management rules. Today, I exited the last of a 3 contract position without allowing it to run, simply because it had gone against me about a point, and it had reached an initial support zone...which melted away as quickly as butter on hot toast. I incorrectly assumed there'd be a retest opportunity on which to short again, and on the way down, had no bounce short entry models to get back in with. Beware of your assumptions. They are seldom a good guide to trading, and in fact, are more often a signpost of self deception and impending surprise.

Wed Apr 6 Trade Summary

20160406
Long 2 TF 1088.9, 1088.9, +1.0, +2.2
Long 1 YM 17474, +20
Short 1 TF 1094.1, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1090.7, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1090.3, +2.0
Total YM +20
Total TF +7.6

Tues Apr 5 Trade Summary

20160405
Long 2 NQ 4460.0, 4460.75, +2.0, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1097.1, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1099.4, 1099.0, 1099.4, +1.0, -0.0, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1100.8, 1100.7, +0.7, +1.0
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +1.1

Mon Apr 4 Trade Summary

20160404
Short 2 NQ 4519.5, 4520.5, +10.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1111.2, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 4519.25, -2.0
Short 2 YM 17706, 17706, +7, -7
Short 1 NQ 4522.75, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1112.9, 1112.3, +0.1, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1115.3, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1108.6, 1108.3, -0.5, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1107.6, 1107.4, +1.0, +0.7
Total YM -0
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +4.8

Fri Apr 1 Trade Summary

20160401
Long 1 TF 1100.6, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 4454.0, -3.0
Short 1 TF 1100.2, -1.4
Short 2 YM 17508, 17508, +7, +20
Short 1 NQ 4560.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1100.1, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1104.1, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1106.5, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1107.1, 1107.3, +0.5, +0.7
Total YM +27
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +4.2