20160322
Long 3 TF 1184.9, 1185.0, 1184.1, +2.0, +0.5, +1.8
Short 2 TF 1187.2, 1188.0, -0.2, +0.7
Short 3 TF 1188.0, 1189.0, 1189.4, -2.1, -1.0, -0.8
Short 3 TF 1190.1, 1190.1, 1190.1, +1.5, +1.5, +1.8
Total TF +5.6
When the normally leading contract (usually the TF) becomes the laggard, having telegraphed the rest of the world that a bear day is upon us, its reluctant bull action after reversing to 2nd Trend becomes a Song of the Sirens. Of course I can short this, you say to yourself. Anybody can see that the TF is an anchor today and bound to go back down. But 2nd Trends are tricky, and therein can lie the surprises, as your hopes are dashed upon the rocks as the emerging laggard bull becomes the eager come-lately playing catch-up. Over confidence often comes from one's delusions regarding the ability to 'read' the market price action. But '....most of the money that is lost in the markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which way the market was really trying to go...' (The Douglas Premise). Remember that the minute structure, aka 'price action', is always subordinate to Day Model, and many a woodsman has been lost in the forest unable to see the forest for the trees. Pay attention to the concept of WorkDone in the 1st Trend. Once accomplished, the 2nd Trend can build into momentum late in its stages, often exceeding all expectations, with the sound of the impending rocks drowned out by the pretty Song of the Sirens...the ego that says 'I know which way the market is really trying to go...and I'm going to prove it....no matter how much it costs me...'.
