20140813
Long 1 NQ 3921.5, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1134.5, 1134.4, +0.7, +1.2
Short 2 TF 1132.8, 1132.7, -0.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1132.6, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1132.7, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 3927.5, 3927.25, +2.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 3923.0, 3923.5, +2.0, +4.0
Short 2 NQ 3928.5, 3928.25, -2.00, -0.0
Short 3 NQ 3931.0, 3930.0, 3930.5, +2.0, -2.0, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1137.5, 1137.6, +1.0, +.07
Short 2 NQ 3934.0, 3934.0, -1.0, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1139.0, -0.0
Total NQ +8.25
Total TF +6.1
Balked at another breakout trade today. And since a pair of signals came in immediate succession, the first one failing to produce actually made the second one all the more likely to succeed... and yet I still balked and failed to take it. The more successful breakouts tend to arrive in disbelief, and yet "most of the opportunity that is missed in the markets is missed by traders who couldn't concede that the market could go the expected distance, but in the opposite direction". This is the nature of the market. Use the measure of your own disbelief that price can't possibly succeed in going further into a trigger to take the trade anyway. The peaking momentum is only a sign that price will soon peak itself in mimicry to the momentum, not a warning that the market has already peaked. As price follows momentum, the market is far more likely to peak after momentum, giving the breakout the surprising impulse needed to make the trade a success. Wait til an actual price impulse spike is behind you to expect the momentum to have an affect. Use the Rule of Alternation to full advantage. If the model is in place, take the trade, your disbelief in the trade's potential notwithstanding.
