20160815
Short 2 YM 18607, 18606, +7, +6
Short 2 TF 1237.5, 1237.5, +0.7, +1.2
Short 2 TF 1238.9, 1239.0, -0.5, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1239.4, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1240.2, 1240.2, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1240.3, +1.1
Total YM +13
Total TF +3.4
Persistent Trend Patterns often offer scant opportunities. Today, when an inflection breakout opportunity in the first trend appeared, I felt drawn to take it, even though the momentum had peaked and 1st trend breakouts are fraught with failure. On Friday, in contrast, a pre-breakout pause pattern was ideal for a breakout play, and although I initially called it for the room, I cancelled it out before it triggered, also on an emotional basis, but to the negative side. Today's breakout was choppy and I got stopped out quickly. Friday's which I didn't take, was clean and very profitable for those who kept their orders in place. ...and then, with these two trading days back-to-back, both featuring attempts by me to take breakouts, a light bulb went off. It's the presence--or absence, I should say--of opportunity in the marketplace that is driving me to either take breakouts better filtered out, or balk at breakouts better qualified to take that is driving my execution. On Persistent Trend Days, there is scant opportunity to engage with the trend....thus I feel compelled to participate in poorly qualified break-out models simply to have something to trade. The calm, cold, unprejudiced check list of break-out filters and qualifiers goes out the window on need to have something to trade. ...Sometimes, a harder thing than the market to understand is yourself. Now....let's see if I can take this insight into some level of behavior modification in the days to come that will improve my poor participation in the breakouts that work versus those that don't.
