20160805
Short 2 NQ 4779.5, 4778.75, -2.5, +2.0
Short 1 ES 2173.25, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1222.7, 1222.7, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1224.9, 1224.9, -0.2, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 4790.25, 4790.25, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 4792.75, 4792.75 +2.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1226.3, 1226.3, +1.5, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 4790.0, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 4794.25, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1228.3, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1228.6, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1229.6, -0.1
Total ES -1.5
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF +1.0
Today I succumbed to a common mental block and missed good entry opportunities in-trend. "The market is too high to buy". The market is NEVER too high to buy...at least as an intraday futures trader. Both the NQ and TF gave the 3 Bar Opening Range patterns that although a long way up from yesterday's close, proceeded to produce huge gains. This left me trying to fade counter trend tops for nickels, while awaiting deeper pullbacks to buy. But to add to the errors, I balked successively at the YM, then ES and then again NQ pullbacks for exactly the same reason. It was still just too high to buy. Except all those too went on up for further gains. ...and what's the 'swing trigger' that will free my head from this block, you ask? How about "the risk I fear is mostly that of the embarrassment". And indeed, it is mostly embarrassment that we face at the obvious stupidity of attempting to buy so high up a gap-up opening. Instead, consider that the financial risk of a default stop-loss for buying a qualified Trend Entry Model this high up at the Open to be no more than what is faced higher up at an even bigger price extension when an entry model of the same caliber appears but for shorting appears. Take the risk. Buy high, should the entry model appear for doing so, and after signs of Persistence as price proceeds, buy again on pullbacks that keep you in-trend on Persistent Trend Day models. There simply is no 'too high' to buy.
