20150115
Long 1 TF 1170.6, +2.1
Long 1 ES 2000.00, +2.5
Long 3 TF 1164.0, 1164.0, 1164.6, +1.3, -1.2, -0.8
Long 3 TF 1162.8, 1162.8, 1163.5, +3.2, -0.4, +1.2
Long 1 YM 17287, -12
Long 2 TF 1157.4, 1157.4, +1.8, +3.5
Short 1 TF 1166.1, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1167.5, +1.4
Total ES +2.5
Total YM -12
Total TF +13.4
A runner is difficult thing to establish for several reasons. First, it requires a multiple contract position. No use trying to make a runner of a 1-lot, or even a 2nd most of the time. Giving up profits on the assumption that one's genius to find the true start of the next intraday reversal trend is just arrogance. Despite all the technical minutia that can pile up into a Trade Entry Model, no such clairvoyance is remotely possible. Therefore, it falls on the third contract of a multi-contract position for such a task. Today, I gave up a 3pt TF paper gain twice trying to survive a series of retests into a full reversal, only to get knocked out just prior to the Philly Fed release. Then, having been 'trained' by the market not to do such a thing again, I trailed my stp to +3.5 pts on a second Sequent series reversal, only to gain the 3pts but give up a runner whose excursion eventually carried some 14 pts higher. You can't undue your previous mistake by applying the solution later at the wrong place. But such subtleties are hard to learn. The best I can learn from the experience is that-when determined to make the 3rd contract a runner--not to move my the stop-loss away from break-even until the first full pullback in the lower time frame bars has completed, thus at least giving some confirmation that the trend will continue, and providing a place to hide the stop with some gain for runner in hand... Stay focused.
