August 2, '04. "What we have here is...a failure...to...communicate."


The outcome of a MidDay Period consolidation pattern is often the result of anticipation failure. This is the way the market works. It could not be otherwise so. All morning of Monday, August 1, the atmosphere surrounding the market was dripping with fear and loathing, communicating lower prices dead ahead. Police surrounding fresh terrorist targets in New York and D.C., a gap down opening bell in all indices and media talking heads reminding us of stock market reactions to past terrorist activities. Indeed, even the charts seem to be cooperating as corrections to the morning sell-offs seem only to be ready to collapse into selling again. And yet...by the end of the day the market was not selling off from the point indicated in the chart above labelled "C". Price eventually rallied sharply and finished higher after reaching the highs of the previous day. Study the concept of pattern failure in the training course Pivots, Patterns and Self Recognition, and learn to spot the true under currents to price with two little known patterns called the Dough Bar and the Fail Trigger. (The quote, in case you didn't recognize it, is from Cool Hand Luke.)