Fri Apr 27 Signal Confirmation Bar

Using a Support / Resistance grid for entry numbers does not mean that when one of a cluster of support numbers is reached, that those lower down might be the ones that actually turn the market. Friday's
sharp plunge did exactly that. Although other signals were there for the first in a series of support numbers to hold, the spike went through two of them before turning on the lowest. Simply waiting for a single reversal bar before entering would have avoided an early entry that got the morning's trades off to a poor start, and kept the trading account from reaching a normal profit goal for the 1st frame of the day.
Trade Summary
20120427
Long 2 TF 813.8, 813.8, -1.4, -1.4
Long 3 TF 812.0, 812.0, 812.0, +1.0, +.9, +2.0
Long 2 ES 1493.75, 1394.25, +1.5, +0.25
Total ES +1.75
Total TF +1.1

Thurs Apr 26 Trade Summary

Trade Summary
20120426
Short 2 ES 1386.75, 1386.75, -1.25, -1.25 ea
Short 2 TF 812.0, 811.9, -0.4, -0.7
Short 2 TF 813.0, 812.9, -0.1, +0.8
Long 2 TF 813.5, 813.5, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 811.6, 812.5, -1.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 813.1, 813.2, +0.4, +1.2
Total ES -2.5
Total TF -2.1

Tues Apr 24 Trade Summary

Trade Summary
20120424
Long 1 TF 787.7, +1.9
Short 1 TF 790.1, +1.5
Long 1 TF 792.5, +1.5
Total TF +4.9

Mon Apr 23 Stp-Loss Management

Learning to let your trade breath a bit against the emotional threat of losing initial profits is usually more challenging than getting in the position in the first place. Making a mistake on an entry never feels as shameful as giving up profits in hand. And sometimes that first thrust is a decent profit, and either tempts you into taking it to go flat, or tempts you into moving the stp-loss in tight too soon to protect that initial thrust. But that eagerness will seldom succeed in capturing the better part of the trend as it develops, especially if you're only trading 1 or 2 contracts. In order for small size position to capture a better piece of the trend, the Trader must first survive a retest back towards the entry. Use the initial profits to go to a break-even stp-loss, or near b/e stp-loss (minus 1 or 2 ticks from entry). But to capture the better profits, you must survive the first little pullback that might come close to knocking you out before it moves on further into profits. Only now with that retest behind you, can you move your stp-loss order. Yes, it sounds so obvious and so easy, but grabbing too soon is the most tempting tendency most traders face. Unfortunately, that's exactly what I did do today with the initial short position in the TF today. I grabbed it too soon. Since the better part of the 1st frame of the day was just a big slam down to the lows, mismanaging that short and taking a minimal +1.5 pt profit meant I missed the most important opportunity of the morning session, worth some 6 pts of maximum excursion.
Trade Summary
20120423
Short 2 TF 788.7, 788.4, +1.0, +0.4
Long 1 TF 785.5, -0.6
Long 1 TF 784.5, -0.3
Long 2 ES 1355.00, 1355.25, +1.0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 782.0 782.0, +0.5, +1.8
Total ES -0
Total TF +2.8

Fri Apr 20 Who's afraid of a Triple Witch

I've become so oblivious to option expiration that I often begin these days unaware it has even arrived... until somebody reminds me. In contrast to yesterday, everything came at a much slower pace. I used the same exact concepts taught in the Serial Sequent classes today that I should have used--but didn't--yesterday. And today, no double down on stupid trades. The money management technique for taking breakouts did chop me out of that bull side action at b/e, but the same technique has also saved a good bit of pain on false breakouts over the months. Join us in the free chat room and watch these trades called before the entries arrive
Trade Summary
20120420
Short 2 TF 803.5, +1.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 801.2, +2.0
Short 2 TF 804.3, 804.6, +1.0, -0.0
Long 2 TF 806.5, 806.5, +0.4, -0.4
Total TF +6.0

Thurs Apr 19 My Bad

Wrong day to make a mistake with my own trade plan, as the initial bull explosion came with a clear entry signal that I simply fumbled. It was there. I wasn't. And I made that compounding mistake that having missed the entry to a trend of trying to fade it with shorts before it was done. Double down on your stupidity. The ES long trades at the initial low after the news were classic, however, and helped maintain a break-even day. But how can you be happy about a b/e when there was so much raw opportunity? The number of trades I took also reveals my desperation. All that was needed to capture a good deal of these remarkable swings were 3 setup signals. The early bull signal, the pre-news top short, and a buy signal in the ES at the early low after the news did its damage. The pre-news short would have been stp'd out just as it was taken. I wouldn't have done any differently in retrospect. The ES trade at the early low was also textbook for the Serial Sequent Method. It was missing the buy entry in the earliest bull trend that put me on the wrong side, and only added to the error by fighting it. Study your mistakes. Think about them and what you did wrong. Often, they provide the best form of education your money can buy. You paid dearly for them. Don't let them go by without detailed scrutiny, lest their lessons be lost.
Trade Summary
Short 2 TF 801.6, 802.6, -1.5, -0.6
Short 1 TF 804.3, -1.4
Short 2 TF 805.7, 805.6, +0.8, -0.3
Long 2 YM 12932 12930, +10 -8
Long 2 ES 1375.0, 1375.0, +2.0, -0.5
Long 1 ES 1375.25, +3.0
Short 2 TF 803.0, 803.0, +0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 805.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 805.4, 805.3, -0.5 -0.5
Short 3 TF 807.0, 807.0, 807.1, +0.5, -0.5, -0.4
Long 1 TF 805.2, -0.3
Long 3 TF 803.9, 802.9, 802.9, -1.5, -.05, -0.5
Long 2 TF 802.0, 802.0 -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 802.3, 802.3, +3.0, +3.5
Total YM +2
Total ES +4.5
Total TF -2.2

Wed Apr 18 Trade Summary

Total 2012 Trade Summary
20120418
Short 1 TF 803.9, +1.0
Short 1 TF 804.9, -0.5
Long 2 TF 805.4, 805.4, -0.6, -0.6
Short 1 TF 803.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 800.5, 800.5, +0.4, +1.5
Short 1 TF 800.1, -0.2
Short 1 TF 800.4, +1.0
Total TF +1.5

Tues Apr 17 Make that 5 in a row

With today's gap n go action, the 1st hour trend was again explosive and persistent, and opposite to yesterday's initial move. However, yesterday's late morning reversal did, in fact, leave a 'tell' for today's action, something the previous days' early impulse moves did not enjoy. And today, there were at least some better swings and a more readily identifiable breakout trigger with which to get in trend sync.
Trade Summary
20120417
Short 2 NQ 2684.5, 2884.25, -2.25, -2.25
Short 2 TF 806.4, 806.7, +0.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 805.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 806.2, +0.4, +2.0
Total NQ -4.5
Total TF +3.6

Mon, Apr 16 Tornado Season in the Markets

A Persistent Trend Model is one that quickly establishes a trend direction.... and stays in that direction, often making a near vertical move in the 1st hour, and either
consolidates the rest of the day, or continues grinding on into that same trend. Although the net excursion distance is often impressive for the entire day, the trade entry opportunities are often scant, as pullbacks are shallow, and further breakouts / breakdowns come into overbought / oversold territory. Frequency of Persistent trends can be as little as 2 per month. Occasionally, at the end of bull market dips, they come back to back, but in the opposite directions. In the last four days, there are been 4 such initial trends that met a large initial 1st hour excursion in volatile fashion. Most likely, volatility will settle down a bit and a more normal underlying trend revealed. It is said that volatile swings often come at places where the larger daily frame / weekly trend is trying to reverse.
Trade Summary
20120416
Long 3 TF 795.4, 794.8, 794.5, -0, -0.4, -0.6
Long 2 YM 12885, 12885, -5, -5
Long 1 YM 12881, -5
Long 2 TF 791.3, 791.3, -0.6, -0.6
Long 2 TF 790.5, 790.5, +1.5, +1.3
Long 1 YM 12852, -10
Long 2 YM 12842, 12842, -10, -10
Short 2 TF 791.2, 791.7, +0.4, +1.5
Short 2 TF 793.4 793.8, -0.5, -0.0
Total YM -45
Total TF +2.0

Fri Apr 13 Trade Summary

20120413
Short 1 TF 801.0, -0.6
Long 2 TF 801.3, 801.3, -0.6, -0.6
Long 2 YM 12859, 12859, +10, -2
Long 2 TF 798.1, 787.1, -0.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 796.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 796.3, 796.3, +0.4, -0.4
Long 4 NQ 2706.0, 2706.0, 2705.25, 2705.25, -2.5, -2.5, -1.75. -1.75
Short 4 NQ 2703.5 2703.5, 2703.5, 2703.5, 2703.5, +2.5, +2.5, +5.0, +4.5
Long 2 TF 793.9, 793.9, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 793.4, 793.4, 793.4, +1.0, +1.4, +1.5
Total YM +8
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +0.2

Thurs, Apr 12 Trade Summary

20120412
Short 2 NQ 2718.5, 2718.5, -2.0, -2.0
Short 4 TF 798.7, 798.7, 799.3, 799.4, -0, -0, -0.5, -0.7
Short 3 TF 800.1, 799.9, 800.7, +1.4, +1.3, -0.4
Short 2 TF 805.5, 805.5, +1.0, -0.1
Short 1 TF 806.0, -0
Short 1 TF 805.7, +1.2
Total NQ -4.0
Total TF +3.2

Wed, Apr 11 Trade Summary

20120411
Long 2 YM 12742, 12742, +4, +15
Short 2 TF 789.6, 790.0, +0.3, -0.4
Long 2 TF 790.2, 790.2 -0.1, -0.1
Short 1 TF 792.9, -0.1
Short 1 TF 793.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 793.7, 793.4, +0.8, +0.6
Total YM +19
Total TF +0.5

Tues, Apr 10 Trade Summary

20120410
Long 2 TF 794.1, 793.7, +0.2, -0.5
Long 2 793.1, 792.5, -1.0, -0.4
Long 2 NQ 2729.75, +3.0, +5.0
Total NQ +8.0
Total TF -1.7

Mon, Apr 9 Trade Summary

20120409
Long 2 NQ 2726.0, 2726.0, -1.5, -1.5
Short 1 TF 800.8, +1.2
Short 1 YM 12866, +13
Total NQ -3.0
Total YM +13
Total TF +1.2

Thurs Apr 5 Trade Summary

A Blessed Passover and Holy Week to all....
Trade Summary
20120405
Short 2 YM 12988, 12987, +2, -1
Long 1 TF 814.8, +1.0
Short 2 TF 816.5, 816.8, +0.2, +1.6
Total YM +1
Total TF +2.8

Wed Apr 4, Action speaks louder than.....

And today's action was speaking unfortunately loud. Although a decent sell signal appeared to get in sync with the decline, the action to the downside was brutally choppy. Thus only a small gain. Thereafter, two buy signals were stp'd out with small losses as some bottom reversal signals began to appear. Out of caution, repeated turn signals that fail are a good sign to just step aside and let the bottom come and go. Retests often appear that are clearer to read. Today, any such retest signals would be coming after the 1st frame of the day. Valhalla Futures only trades the 1st frame, until about 11:15am ET US.
Total 2012 Trade Summary
20120404
Long 1 TF 820.9, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 2754.0, +1.5, -0
Long 2 NQ 2744.25, 2744.25, +0.5, -0.75
Long 2 TF 818.9, 818.8, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 818.3, 818.3, +0.4, +0.9
Long 1 TF 816.9, -0.5
Long 1 TF 815.3, -0
Total NQ +1.25
Total TF +1.8

Tues Apr 3 Trade Summary

Trade Summary
20120403
Long 2 YM 13168, 13168, +10, +6
Long 1 NQ 2776.5, -1.5
Long 2 TF 829.1, 829.3, +1.0, -0
Long 1 TF 828.8, -0.1
Long 2 TF 830.2, 830.0, +0.5, -0.2
Long 1 TF 829.5, -0.4
Total YM +16
Total NQ -1.5
Total TF +0.8

Mon Apr 2 Brain freeze

More often than not, the price reaction to the 10am econ reports is a fade, and does not agree with the true underlying trend of the day. Today, however, the news and the underlying trend fed on each other, and we made a mistake when attempting to fade it too soon. There was also a subsequent trigger that would have tripped us into the trend for as least the last leg of the morning session, but following on a loss, we erred on the side of caution and let it go by. One of the most important qualities for a trader to exhibit is the ability to recover from a bad trade when the next valid trade signal appears. Study your mistakes in the market, and try to recall the mental state you were in when you made them. Mistakes can be the most valuable lessons of your trading education....
Trade Summary
20120402
Short 1 NQ 2752.25, +2.5
Short 1 TF 825.9, +1.0
Short 2 TF 823.4, +0,4, -0.4
Short 1 TF 827.2, -1.0
Short 2 TF 828.9, 829.5, +0.3, -0.0
Short 2 TF 831.8, 831.6, +0.5, -0.1
Long 2 TF 830.3, 830.4, -0.6, -0.7,
Short 2 TF 829.6, -0.0, -0.0
Total NQ +2.5
Total TF -0.6