A Persistent Trend Model is one that quickly establishes a trend direction.... and stays in that direction, often making a near vertical move in the 1st hour, and either
consolidates the rest of the day, or continues grinding on into that same trend. Although the net excursion distance is often impressive for the entire day, the trade entry opportunities are often scant, as pullbacks are shallow, and further breakouts / breakdowns come into overbought / oversold territory. Frequency of Persistent trends can be as little as 2 per month. Occasionally, at the end of bull market dips, they come back to back, but in the opposite directions. In the last four days, there are been 4 such initial trends that met a large initial 1st hour excursion in volatile fashion. Most likely, volatility will settle down a bit and a more normal underlying trend revealed. It is said that volatile swings often come at places where the larger daily frame / weekly trend is trying to reverse.
Trade Summary
20120416
Long 3 TF 795.4, 794.8, 794.5, -0, -0.4, -0.6
Long 2 YM 12885, 12885, -5, -5
Long 1 YM 12881, -5
Long 2 TF 791.3, 791.3, -0.6, -0.6
Long 2 TF 790.5, 790.5, +1.5, +1.3
Long 1 YM 12852, -10
Long 2 YM 12842, 12842, -10, -10
Short 2 TF 791.2, 791.7, +0.4, +1.5
Short 2 TF 793.4 793.8, -0.5, -0.0
Total YM -45
Total TF +2.0
