20121213
Short 1 NQ 2674.0, -0.5
Short 1 TF 830.0, +1.0
Short 2 NQ 2679.0, 2679.0, -3.0, -3.0
Short 1 TF 830.8, -0.6
Short 2 YM 13259, 13261, +7, +10
Long 2 NQ 2682.0, 2682.0, +2.0, -0.0
Long 2 NQ 2679.0, 2678.50, +1.5, +2.0
Long 1 TF 730.2, -0.1
Short 1 TF 829.9, +1.3
Long 1 TF 728.2, +0.6
AM SubTotal YM +17
AM SubTotal NQ -1.0
AM SubTotal TF +2.2
PM trades:
Short 1 TF 824.5, -0.2
Short 1 TF 824.8, -0.5
Total YM +17
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +1.5
The early trend of the day is often accompanied by sharp, short covering if that trend is bull, and quasi-panic liquidation when a bear. That makes positioning for the reversal of the 1st trend of the day challenging. But like today, staying with the plan eventually rewarded trades as YM sell signals showed after initial stp-outs in NQ and TF shorts. The mistake there was not re entering YM short upon further Inflection breakdowns, as it was then the 2nd trend direction of the day, and YM was clearly the leader. I balked at that important part of the trade plan, leaving much of the eventual YM decline on the table. Inflection breakdown triggers in the NQ and TF did eventually follow the YM, and a TF breakdown trigger proved profitable. There, the mistake was in only taking 1 contract. I still feel trepidation on breakout plays. I hang back from them, even though these today were clearly in my plan. Taking only 1 contract is a way to comply with the pressure I put on myself to stick to the plan, but somewhat half-heartedly. I can do better. Profit goals are not reached without taking the risks necessary to achieve them. Keep the focus of those risks on just those trades that are in the plan, and often at moments of greatest fear. That is where the profits you seek are hiding. Be strong. Trade the plan. Sidebar: contract rollover is today. The TF contract tends to hold better volume throughout the rollover day in the current contract, and is usually wiser to begin trading the new contract on the Friday following the Thursday rollover. But not so for the CME products ES, NQ and YM contracts. Their current month contract can drop off quickly after the 1st hour on rollover. I continue to trade them on rollover day only through the 1st frame til 11:15am. Any PM trading in those contracts on rollover day risk slippage from loss of volume.
