Fri Jan 31 Trade Signals and Journal


20200131
Short 1 NQ 9150.5, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 9151.0 +14.25
Short 1 ES 3265.25, +4.0
Total ES +4.0
Total NQ +14.25

Once bitten... as they say.. and so my limited trading today markedly affected by my over-trading into losses yesterday..
...and of course just to punish me further for not be indifferent to yesterday's mistakes, I passed on at least 4 more trades that went as cleanly as did these that would have more than tripled my profits in the 1st Frame of trading.. We might like to be machines, to paraphrase Andy Warhol, but in reality, everything we do--and especially every mistake and mishap we live through--affects us dramatically going forward. You hear it all the time as a trader, leave your errors behind... but you also hear such things as 'learn from your mistakes', and 'quit awhile your ahead' and any other of a dozen aphorisms in the world of trading psychology that infect your daily routine.

The best recourse is to have a plan, and in that plan have limits to your daily losses and quotas towards your daily profit goals... and then conduct yourself as best you can within that framework...

Thur Jan 30 Trade Signals and Journal

20200130
Short 1 YM 28664, +20
Long 1 NQ 9097.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 9095.0, -1.0
Long 2 YM 28600, 28600, +30, +50
Long 1 RTY 1642.5, -0.9
Long 2 RTY 1640.9, 1640.9, +2.0, -0.1
Long 2 NQ 9074.5, 9074.5, +3.0, +4.0
Long 1 NQ 9072.0, -0.0
Long 2 NQ 9070.0, 9070.0, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 9068.5, 9068.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 ES 3253.0, 3251.75, -2.0, -1.5
Long 2 YM 28530, 28530, -4, -4
Long 3 YM 28492, 28495, 28500, -0, -0, -2
Long 3 RTY 1635.1, 1635.1, 1635.1, -1.4, -1.4, -1.4
Long 4 RTY 1630.2, 1630.2, 1630.2, 1630.2, -0.2, -0.2, -0.2, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 9036.0, 9036.0, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 9034.0, 9034.0, -1.0, -1.0
Long 3 NQ 9030.0, 9030.0, 9030.0, +10.0, -1.0, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 9027.0, -2.0
Short 4 RTY 1636.5, 1637.0, 1637.0, 1638.5, -2.0, -1.4, -1.4, -0.7
Short 2 YM 28571, 28571, -7, -7
Total ES -3.5
Total YM +76
Total NQ -1.0
Total RTY -9.5

Sometimes knowing when to quit for the frame is half the battle. ...but it's especially hard to stop when / if your just shy of your 1st Frame goal, and just need one more trade to cap it off and go to coffee... But sometimes this one more trade leads to having to dig yourself out of a hole, clear into negative PnL for the day... and those days often seem flat out worse than facing a losing day right from the get-go. And just so it was today when the Test n Reject morning left me trying to fade the second trend selling too soon. ...and to cap it off, acknowledging the 2nd trend is serious, the temptation is equally strong to get in sync with that selling on pullbacks so as to get in sync with the glaring 2nd trend. ....but those pullbacks are seldom 'gimmies' from an extreme climax selling low. Note to self: pullbacks from extreme momentum spikes seldom deliver technically 'normal' pullbacks. The rubber band gets stretched. ...just so does it snap back further than anticipated. Or, just go to coffee earlier next time....

Wed Jan 29 Trade Signal Summary

20200129
Long 1 NQ 9115.5, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 9108.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 9109.0, 9109.0, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 9101.0, 9101.0, +6.5, +0.25
Long 2 RTY 1655.9, 1655.9, -1.4, -1.4
Long 3 RTY 1654.5, 1654.5, 1654.5, +1.4, +1.4, -1.4
Long 3 YM 28695, 28695, 28690, +15, +20, +7
Long 2 NQ 9073.0, 9074.0, +5.0, +5.0
Long 2 RTY 1650.0, 1650.0, +2.0, +3.5
Long 1 NQ 9074.0, +10.0
Total YM +42
Total NQ +18.25
Total RTY +4.1

Tues Jan 28 Trade Signal Summary

20200128
Short 2 RTY 1655.0, 1555.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 9014.5, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 9018.0, 9018.0, +5.0, +.5
Short 2 NQ 9021.5, 9021.0 -0.0, +3.25
Short 1 YM 28582, -2
Short 2 RTY 1658.1, 1657.8, +2.2, +2.1
Short t RTY 1659.0, -0.3
Short 1 NQ 9037.0, 9037.0, +2.0, +6.0
Short 1 RTY 1660.5, -0.4
Short 2 ES 3270.0, 3272.0, -0.0, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 9055.25, -1.5
Short 1 NQ 9062.0, -1.0
Short 1 NQ 9061.75, -2.0
Short 1 YM 28686, -7
Short 3 YM 28697, 28697, 28700, -7, -7, -7
Short 3 YM 28702, 28702, 28702, -7, -7, -7
Short 2 NQ 9074.0, 9074.0, +4.0, +6.0
Short 1 NQ 9078.0, +10.0
Total ES +2.0
Total YM -51
Total NQ +30.25

Mon Jan 27 Trade Signal Summary

0200127
Short 2 NQ 8982.0, 8982.0, +7.0, -0.0
Short 1 RTY 1646.0, -0.1
Short 1 RTY 1646.0, -0.6
Long 1 RTY 1644.0, +2.0
Long 1 RTY 1644.1, -0.1
Long 1 NQ 8962.5, -0.25
Long 2 NQ 8960.0, 8960.0, +3.5, +14.75
Total NQ +25.0
Total RTY +1.2

Fri Jan 24 Trade Signals Summary

20200124
Long 1 NQ 9257.0, +5.0
Long 1 RTY 1680.0, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 9237.5, -2.25
Long 1 NQ 9236.0, -2.25
Long 2 NQ 9231.75, 9131.75, +5.0, +5.0
Long 1 RTY 1676.0, -0.0
Long 1 YM 29089, +20
Total YM +20
Total NQ +10.5
Total RTY -0.0

Thurs Jan 23 Trade Signals and Journal

20200123
Short 1 NQ 9167.5, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 9174.00, 9174.00, +3.0, +10..25
Long 2 RTY 1667.3, 1667.3, +1.0, -0.9
Long 1 RTY 1665.0, +4.0
Short 1 NQ 9180.0, +10.5
Total NQ +21.5
Total RTY +4.1

Pivot / Exhaustion is a completely different method of looking at the market and creating a price level array. It's quite different than traditional methods of identifying support / resistance. Once you get use to seeing how the market behaves through the indicators that render those exhaustion plots on your screen, a whole new set of opportunities appear for you on any given trading day that you would have never considered before. ....if only you had the fortitude to take them. But everyday the crowd reminds you of their tried and true axioms never to consider taking such trades.. That such methods of exploiting exhaustion are more dangerous than the trade entries of pullbacks, that such trades are counter-trend, and therefore betray the principal of only trading WITH the trend. ..and that, furthermore, taking such trades will betray the fraternity of agreement you are supposed to rely on from fellow traders who are there to support you intellectually and emotionally...into the same losing trades they are taking...where you belong... and will no doubt reside... as long as you hang out with this 'crowd' of well wishers at their support / resistance bar rails.

With such firm adherence to such group-think, many find it inconceivable that price fills at extremes can be acquired with such consistency. In fact, they think such fills impossible, despite the fact that their own charts usually show huge concentrations of volume at precisely these bars that appear in exhaustion zones.

"Someone must be capturing those pivot swings that constitute the major turn trends of the intraday swings, but who?", I once asked, standing outside the S&P pit in the early 1980's with one of my mentors, a former Swiss Franc trader who was trying to teach me the ropes.

Using the fractal algorithm Serial Sequent, the line plots of the Pivot/Exhaustion Grid, and a short term momentum indicator that identifies the zones of price climax in the volatile action of 1st frame (without benefit of fresh, relative benchmarks), order entries can be established in any contract using one or both of the following two methods: First, Limit orders that 'lead' price before it reaches fresh and final exhaustion spikes, placed on or next to whole numbers of the stock index contract in question; and second, trailing Stop-entry orders that depend for their fills on reversal of such price climax rather than breakout-continuance.

More specifically, these types of entry orders simply await patiently before being placed for the relevant Sequent of the fractal series to finally appear while the momentum indicator signals crescendo, and price pokes THROUGH--not just to--a price level of the Exhaustion Grid that otherwise was supposed to have held, that the trend in question remain still a pullback. In glorious irony, the signal to fade actually comes at the point where tradition trend signals flash a warning of trend continuance.

That's right. You await your entry until the fraternal crowd who demands your allegiance to their trend rules of do's and don't's sees signs that the action depicted confirms their assumptions, and then you fade them--all alone, defiant of their collectivist membership, and hence force, their friendship, banking their hatred like a deposit slip at your local bank.

"Hey, you're not supposed to be doing that. No one gets those fills. We don't trade that way. You can't stay in here and do that... Now we don't like you." ...and later, given the chance, they'll post bad reviews of your book, even while publishing your methods. ....that's how bad it is when you work outside 'the crowd'. I just have to smile when I read these things about my work by such people. ..and I say to myself "and I bet he voted for the wrong Party, too."

One final comment to those just too cemented to be separated from their 'Traders' Ten Things You Should Never Do' litany. ...and this in language fit for the misconception of their current rules: The first trend climax of the day IS a pullback.

Wed Jan 22 Trade Signal Summary

20200122
Long 1 RTY 1693.5, -0.1
Short 1 YM 29274, +21
Short 2 NQ 9243.0, 9243.0, +2.5, +5.0
Long 1 RTY 1690.0, -0.0
Short 1 YM 29267, -3
Short 1 RTY 1692.2, -0.0
Short 2 RTY 1692.9, 1692.9, +1.3, -0.0
Short 1 RTY 1694.2, +3.0
Total YM +18
Total NQ +7.5
Total RTY +4.2

Tues Jan 21 Trade Signal Summary

20200121
Long 1 NQ 9157.0, +5.25
Short 1 NQ 9176.0, +6.5
Short 1 NQ 9182.0, +7.25
Long 1 NQ 9161.75, +5.0
Total NQ +23.0

Mon Jan 20 No Trades, holiday

Fri Jan 17 Trade Signal Summary

20200117
Short 2 RTY 1711.0, 1711.2, +3.6, +1.3
Short 2 NQ 9153.0, 9153.0, -2.0, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 9156.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 9156.5, 9156.5, -0.5, -0.5
Total NQ -7.0
Total RTY +4.9

Thurs Jan 16 Trade Signals & Journal

20200116
Long 1 NQ 9107.25, +6.5
Short 1 NQ 9115.0, +5.0
Short 2 NQ 9116.75, 9116.75, +5.0, +10
Total NQ +26.5

The most challenging aspect to trading is holding the winners longer. When conditions and signals are near perfect, you only notice how much of the excursion you actually miss. But of course, most days, things are hardly as neat and tied up in a pretty bow as they were at the High of Day today. Being stopped out along the course of entering for a swing becomes so conditional that being handed your First Frame goal so neatly is an almost irresistible temptation to exit your trades... and go to Starbucks for coffee a bit earlier than usual.

Wed Jan 15 Trade Signal Summary

20200115
Short 1 ES 3290.5, -0.25
Short 1 ES 3290.75, -0.25
Short 1 RTY 1684.6, -0.1
Short 2 YM 29019, 29022, +10, -11
Short 2 NQ 9086.0, 9086.0, +2.0, -05.
Short 1 NQ 9090.0, +10.0
Short 1 NQ 9095.0, +5.25
Total ES -0.5
Total NQ +17.0
Total RTY -0.1

Tues Jan 14 Trade Signal Summary

20200114
Long 1 ES 3281.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 9049.5, -2.25
Long 1 NQ 9046.0, +8.0
Short 1 NQ 9069.5, -2.00
Short 2 NQ 9072.0, 9071.25, +8.75, +10.0
Total ES +2.0
Total NQ +22.5

Mon Jan 13 Trade Signal Summary

20200113
Short 1 NQ 9024.0, +5.0
Short 1 YM 28841, +20
Short 1 RTY 1657.5, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 9026.0, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 9031.0, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 9034.5, 9036.0, +2.0, +7.0
Short 1 YM 28850, +3.0
Total YM +50
Total NQ +9.75
Total RTY, -0.5

Fri Jan 10 Trade Signal Summary

20200110
Long 2 RTY 1663.5, 1663.5, -0.0, -1.4
Long 3 RTY 1659.0, 1659.0, 1658.3, +3.0, +3.0, +6.3
Short 1 NQ 9023.75, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 9025.25, -2.5
Short 1 RTY 1666.2, -0.0
Short 1 RTY 1666.4, -0.2
Short 1 NQ 9030.0, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 9031.5, -0.5
Short 1 RTY 1667.1, -0.3
Short 1 ES 3283.25, +1.25
Total ES +1.25
Total NQ -5.0
Total RTY +10.4

Thurs Jan 9 Trade Signal Summary

20200109
Long 1 RTY 1665.8+4.0
Long 1 NQ 9004.0, -0.25
Short 1 NQ 9006.0, -0.25
Short 1 NQ 9008.25, -0.00
Short 1 YM 28853, -2
Short 2 YM 28894, 28898, 28897, +12, +20, +7
Total YM +47
Total NQ -0.5
Total +4.0

Wed Jan 8 Trade Signal Summary

20200108
Short 2 NQ 8882.75, 8882.75, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 RTY 1668.4, 1669.0, +0.6, -0.6
Short 2 YM 28687, 28685, +10, +20
Short 1 YM 28694, -0
Short 1 YM 28710, -7
Short 1 YM 28710, +20
Long 2 NQ 8880.0, 8880.0, +2.0, -2.0
Long 1 YM 28552, -0
Long 2 NQ 8877.0, 8876.0, -2.25, -1.00
Long 2 NQ 8874.0, 8874.0, -2.5, -2.5
Long 3 RTY 1660.9, 1660.9, 1660.9, +1.5, +2.6, +1.5
Total YM +43
Total NQ -10.25
Total RTY +5.6

Tues Jan 7 Trade Signal Summary

20200107
Long 1 YM 28550, -0
Long 1 RTY 1556.9, 1555.8, -1.5, -0.6
Long 2 YM 28542, 28539, +20, +11
Short 1 NQ 8851.5, +11.0
Short 1 NQ 8868.0, +8.0
Total YM +31
Total NQ +19.0
Total RTY -2.1

Mon Jan 6 Trade Signal Summary

20200106
Short 2 RTY 1649.8, 1649.8, -0.8, -0.8
Short 1 RTY 1652.0, +4.0
Short 1 NQ 8777.0, -2.25
Short 1 NQ 8782.0, -2.25
Short 1 NQ 8786.0, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 8787.0, 8787.0, +5.0, -2.0
Short 2 RTY 1652.0, 1652.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 8803.0, 8803.0, -2.75, -2.75
Short 3 NQ 8806.0, 8806.0, 8806.0, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 NQ 8805.0, 8805.0, 8805.0, +4.25, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 RTY 1652.6, 1652.8, -1.5, -1.4
Short 2 NQ 8817.0, 8817.0, +8.0, +10.0
Short 2 RTY 1656.3, 1656.3, +2.0, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 8822.0, -2.25
Short 1 RTY, 1652.8, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 8824.5, 8825.5, -2.0, -1.5
Short 2 NQ 8828.0, 8828.0, -1.75, -1.75
Short 2 RTY 1659.5, 1659.5, +1.4, -0.0
Total NQ -3.75
Total RTY +6.9