20160307
Short 1 TF 1077.8, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1181.1, 1181.8, -1.4, -0.7
Long 1 NQ 4307.75, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4292.5, -3.0
Long 2 TF 1080.4, 1080.1, +1.8, +1.0
Short 2 YM 16995, 16993, +7, +2.0
Short 2 YM 16998, 16998, -0, -0
Short 2 TF 1088.5, 1088.5, +0.7, +2.0
Total YM +27
Total NQ -5.0
Total TF +3.2
Fri Mar 4 Trades & Journal
20160304
Long 1 TF 1071.0, +1.8
Long 1 NQ 4305.5, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 4313.75, 431325, +8.0, +8.0
Long 1 NQ 4301.75, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 4313.25, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 4305.0, +5.0
Short 1 NQ 4333.5, -1.0
Short 1 NQ 4333.5, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1084.1, 1084.7, -0.0, -0.6
Total NQ +21.0
Total TF +1.2
Second trend efforts tend to be truer than 1st. That's a statistic from two of the three Day Models which show that Test-n-Reject are far more common than Persistent Trend. Today I could pretend to congratulate myself on limiting my attempts to short the 2nd Trend as it continued to grind up and through one resistance level and structure level after another. But the truth is, I already had my daily goal with some nice NQ trades, and it was my caution to not give that away on the last daily of the week more than the mark of self discipline to bide 2nd Trends very carefully. Consistency is more important than being right. And nothing feels better than after having been whacked very hard earlier in the week on Tuesday, to close put the 1st Frame on three days thereafter back-to-back with profits. ....and it's Friday. ...a good weekend to all...
Long 1 TF 1071.0, +1.8
Long 1 NQ 4305.5, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 4313.75, 431325, +8.0, +8.0
Long 1 NQ 4301.75, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 4313.25, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 4305.0, +5.0
Short 1 NQ 4333.5, -1.0
Short 1 NQ 4333.5, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1084.1, 1084.7, -0.0, -0.6
Total NQ +21.0
Total TF +1.2
Second trend efforts tend to be truer than 1st. That's a statistic from two of the three Day Models which show that Test-n-Reject are far more common than Persistent Trend. Today I could pretend to congratulate myself on limiting my attempts to short the 2nd Trend as it continued to grind up and through one resistance level and structure level after another. But the truth is, I already had my daily goal with some nice NQ trades, and it was my caution to not give that away on the last daily of the week more than the mark of self discipline to bide 2nd Trends very carefully. Consistency is more important than being right. And nothing feels better than after having been whacked very hard earlier in the week on Tuesday, to close put the 1st Frame on three days thereafter back-to-back with profits. ....and it's Friday. ...a good weekend to all...
Thurs Mar 3 Trades & Journal
20160303
Long 1 NQ 4316.5, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 4314.5, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1065.9, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1066.9, 1066.9, +1.3, +2.5
Short 1 TF 1068.2, +1.4
Long 1 NQ 4304.5, +8.0
Short 1 TF 1068.3, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1071.6, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1071.3, +1.0
Total NQ +11.0
Total TF +4.7
Trade entry signals, when based on models of comprised disparate elements, can become fuzzy when there is dramatic bifurcation between contracts. At some point, this tug-a-war becomes resolved, but often invites assumptions about the true trend. Assumptions can be costly. It is better to trade such diverging contracts on their individual merits, and keep the size small....sometimes even to the point of being long the one and short the other at the same time. If such a battle persists throughout the 1st Frame of the day, it is quite likely to find some resolution as the Midday Frame ensues. Be patient, and hold back on size. Eventually, the flock of black birds coagulates and syncs into a more unified decision.
Long 1 NQ 4316.5, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 4314.5, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1065.9, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1066.9, 1066.9, +1.3, +2.5
Short 1 TF 1068.2, +1.4
Long 1 NQ 4304.5, +8.0
Short 1 TF 1068.3, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1071.6, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1071.3, +1.0
Total NQ +11.0
Total TF +4.7
Trade entry signals, when based on models of comprised disparate elements, can become fuzzy when there is dramatic bifurcation between contracts. At some point, this tug-a-war becomes resolved, but often invites assumptions about the true trend. Assumptions can be costly. It is better to trade such diverging contracts on their individual merits, and keep the size small....sometimes even to the point of being long the one and short the other at the same time. If such a battle persists throughout the 1st Frame of the day, it is quite likely to find some resolution as the Midday Frame ensues. Be patient, and hold back on size. Eventually, the flock of black birds coagulates and syncs into a more unified decision.
Wed Mar 2 Trade Summary
20160302
Short 1 NQ 4330.25, +8.0
Short 2 TF 1054.3, 1054.2, +0.7, +2.8
Short 1 TF 1055.6, +1.1
Total NQ +8.0
Total TF +4.6
Short 1 NQ 4330.25, +8.0
Short 2 TF 1054.3, 1054.2, +0.7, +2.8
Short 1 TF 1055.6, +1.1
Total NQ +8.0
Total TF +4.6
Tues Mar 1 Trades & Journal
20160301
Short 1 TF 1039.3, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1037.9, 1037.3, -1.6, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1035.6, 1035.6, +1.4, -0.2
Short 2 NQ 4248.25, 4248.25, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 4254.25, 4254.25, +4.0, +3.0
Long 1 YM 16600, +25
Short 1 TF 1040.3, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1043.0, 1042.7, -1.0, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1043.3, 1043.3, 1043.2, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1043.9, 1043.9, 1043.9, -0.8, -0.8, -0.8
Total YM +25
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF -7.4
Some days the swing signals are just challenging...to say the least. When the dust settles, there are often more subtle signs you could have seen that were then outside your purview in the heat of trade entry decisions. Today, I had to look pretty hard even to find those. The trade models appeared, but price was simply not contained by them, and consequently I was repeatedly stp'd out. When such days appear, somethings the best you can do is contain your losses to no more than about the numerical value of a day's profit goals. Stay with your Trade Plan. Let the Plan'sbehavior stops take you out when loss limits are reached. Accept the outcome and resolve to come back fresh tomorrow. ...it's another day....
Short 1 TF 1039.3, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1037.9, 1037.3, -1.6, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1035.6, 1035.6, +1.4, -0.2
Short 2 NQ 4248.25, 4248.25, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 4254.25, 4254.25, +4.0, +3.0
Long 1 YM 16600, +25
Short 1 TF 1040.3, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1043.0, 1042.7, -1.0, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1043.3, 1043.3, 1043.2, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1043.9, 1043.9, 1043.9, -0.8, -0.8, -0.8
Total YM +25
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF -7.4
Some days the swing signals are just challenging...to say the least. When the dust settles, there are often more subtle signs you could have seen that were then outside your purview in the heat of trade entry decisions. Today, I had to look pretty hard even to find those. The trade models appeared, but price was simply not contained by them, and consequently I was repeatedly stp'd out. When such days appear, somethings the best you can do is contain your losses to no more than about the numerical value of a day's profit goals. Stay with your Trade Plan. Let the Plan'sbehavior stops take you out when loss limits are reached. Accept the outcome and resolve to come back fresh tomorrow. ...it's another day....
Mon Feb 29 Trade Summary
20160227
Long 1 TF 1035.1, +2.4
Short 1 YM 16642, +20
Long 1 YM 16599, -3
Long 1 NQ 4234.5, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1036.3, +1.2
Total YM +17
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +3.6
Long 1 TF 1035.1, +2.4
Short 1 YM 16642, +20
Long 1 YM 16599, -3
Long 1 NQ 4234.5, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1036.3, +1.2
Total YM +17
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +3.6
Fri Feb 26 Trade Summary
20160226
Long 1 TF 1035.7, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1033.8, -0.8
Long 1 TF 1032.8, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1032.9, +1.5,
Short 1 TF 1034.2, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1037.4, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1032.0, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1035.9, +1.5
Total TF +3.9
Long 1 TF 1035.7, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1033.8, -0.8
Long 1 TF 1032.8, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1032.9, +1.5,
Short 1 TF 1034.2, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1037.4, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1032.0, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1035.9, +1.5
Total TF +3.9
Thurs Feb 25 Trade Summary
20160225
Long 1 TF 1022.2, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1020.5, 1020.7, +1.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1019.3, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1018.6, +1.2
Total TF +4.7
Long 1 TF 1022.2, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1020.5, 1020.7, +1.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1019.3, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1018.6, +1.2
Total TF +4.7
Wed Feb 24 Trade Summary
20160224
Long 1 TF 994.4, +1.5
Long 2 TF 994.3, 994.3, +1.0, +1.7
Short 2 TF 1001.8, 1001.5, +0.7, +1.1
Total TF +6.0
Long 1 TF 994.4, +1.5
Long 2 TF 994.3, 994.3, +1.0, +1.7
Short 2 TF 1001.8, 1001.5, +0.7, +1.1
Total TF +6.0
Tues Feb 23 Trades & Summary
20160223
Long 1 TF 1012.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1015.1, 1015.5, 1015.8, +0.7, -0.7, +0.7
Total TF +0.2
Sometimes the turns take place without entry signals. You watch the choppy action. You wait for technical events to appear....but they just don't. Then, when you find yourself left behind, you have a strong temptation to play catch-up so as to look less the fool. Today I resisted that. And all I have to show for it is staying flat. ..but the the market is open again tomorrow too....
Long 1 TF 1012.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1015.1, 1015.5, 1015.8, +0.7, -0.7, +0.7
Total TF +0.2
Sometimes the turns take place without entry signals. You watch the choppy action. You wait for technical events to appear....but they just don't. Then, when you find yourself left behind, you have a strong temptation to play catch-up so as to look less the fool. Today I resisted that. And all I have to show for it is staying flat. ..but the the market is open again tomorrow too....
Mon Feb 22 Trade Summary
20160222
Short 2 YM 16560, 16560, -10, -10
Short 2 NQ 4216.5, 4216.5, +3.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1020.7, +1.4
Short 2 NQ 4218.75, 4218.75, +2.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4213.5, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 4213.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1019.3, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1017.7, -0.5
Total YM -20
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +0.4
Short 2 YM 16560, 16560, -10, -10
Short 2 NQ 4216.5, 4216.5, +3.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1020.7, +1.4
Short 2 NQ 4218.75, 4218.75, +2.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4213.5, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 4213.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1019.3, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1017.7, -0.5
Total YM -20
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +0.4
Fri Feb 19 Trades & Journal
20160219
Long 2 TF 998.2, 997.3, +1.0, +4.0
Total TF +5.0
Trade management must be rule based and semi-automatic. If your buy zone allows averaging in a better price, then it should be taken without regard of the trepidation you suffer at the hands of unexpected volatility. The same can go for using a decent size default target when trading the early intraday swings of something as volatile as the mini-Russell 2000 contract. "Position yourself to be surprise", my mentor was fond of saying. But too tight an exit target will deny the fruits of such surprise strength in reversals. Give the market a bit of room to breathe, and it will tend to fulfill its excursions at the significant exhaustion and pivot targets.
Long 2 TF 998.2, 997.3, +1.0, +4.0
Total TF +5.0
Trade management must be rule based and semi-automatic. If your buy zone allows averaging in a better price, then it should be taken without regard of the trepidation you suffer at the hands of unexpected volatility. The same can go for using a decent size default target when trading the early intraday swings of something as volatile as the mini-Russell 2000 contract. "Position yourself to be surprise", my mentor was fond of saying. But too tight an exit target will deny the fruits of such surprise strength in reversals. Give the market a bit of room to breathe, and it will tend to fulfill its excursions at the significant exhaustion and pivot targets.
Thurs Feb 18 Trade Summary
20160218
Long 1 TF 1002.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1007.9, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1008.1, +1.1
Total TF +5.1
Long 1 TF 1002.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1007.9, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1008.1, +1.1
Total TF +5.1
Wed Feb 17 Trade Summary
20160217
Short 1 TF 1004.2, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1008.2, 1008.1, +0.5, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 4154.0, -3.0
Short 2 TF 1010.4, 1010.4, +0.7, -0.7
Short 1 4156.25, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1010.9, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1013.1, 1013.0, +0.7, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 4165, 4165.75, -2.5, +2.0
Total NQ -5.5
Total TF +0.6
Short 1 TF 1004.2, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1008.2, 1008.1, +0.5, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 4154.0, -3.0
Short 2 TF 1010.4, 1010.4, +0.7, -0.7
Short 1 4156.25, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1010.9, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1013.1, 1013.0, +0.7, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 4165, 4165.75, -2.5, +2.0
Total NQ -5.5
Total TF +0.6
Tues Feb 16 Trades & Journal
20160216
Long 1 TF 981.1, -1.4
Long 1 TF 979.9, +2.2
Long 1 TF 977.3, +1.7
Long 2 TF 976.8, 977.3, +1.4, +0.6
Short 1 TF 978.8, -0.0
Long 2 TF 976.1, 976.1, +0.5, +2.0
Total TF +7.0
Is good to remember how the action can deceive at 1st Trend lows ....how price seems to just keep puking up the longs, like after too much to drink or something bad to eat. This tends to give the impression that something bigger is behind the selling, that there's an overriding fundamental at work that you missed in the morning news. And then, when the vomiting is all done, the selling just dries up and price explodes upward, catching the come-lately shorts by surprise. This is where that false narrative that so many less experienced traders fall prey to and repeat appears, that there's a 'they' out there, manipulating prices to their benefit. ...that the more fundamentally informed institutional traders or the hedge funds are somehow orchestrating these events so 'they' can load up while pushing 'us' little guys aside while getting us to fall for their fake sell-offs. ...that the market is all somehow rigged and in order to better level the playing field, we have to examine closely what these cognoscenti are doing, what footprints they may be leaving, what tea leaves they've left disturbed in order to better get in sync with their evil machinations. Such nonsense. Market activity forms patterns, not footprints. There is no orchestration. There is no cognoscenti. There is no 'us' versus 'them'. Those guys compete with each other more than they compete with us. Price, structure and momentum models tend to repeat themselves at the right edge of your video screen with great regularity. It's our own emotions we must contend with that would have us believe something outside the market itself is actually at work. Put these models into a Trade Plan. See nothing else. Know nothing else. Be the Plan.
Long 1 TF 981.1, -1.4
Long 1 TF 979.9, +2.2
Long 1 TF 977.3, +1.7
Long 2 TF 976.8, 977.3, +1.4, +0.6
Short 1 TF 978.8, -0.0
Long 2 TF 976.1, 976.1, +0.5, +2.0
Total TF +7.0
Is good to remember how the action can deceive at 1st Trend lows ....how price seems to just keep puking up the longs, like after too much to drink or something bad to eat. This tends to give the impression that something bigger is behind the selling, that there's an overriding fundamental at work that you missed in the morning news. And then, when the vomiting is all done, the selling just dries up and price explodes upward, catching the come-lately shorts by surprise. This is where that false narrative that so many less experienced traders fall prey to and repeat appears, that there's a 'they' out there, manipulating prices to their benefit. ...that the more fundamentally informed institutional traders or the hedge funds are somehow orchestrating these events so 'they' can load up while pushing 'us' little guys aside while getting us to fall for their fake sell-offs. ...that the market is all somehow rigged and in order to better level the playing field, we have to examine closely what these cognoscenti are doing, what footprints they may be leaving, what tea leaves they've left disturbed in order to better get in sync with their evil machinations. Such nonsense. Market activity forms patterns, not footprints. There is no orchestration. There is no cognoscenti. There is no 'us' versus 'them'. Those guys compete with each other more than they compete with us. Price, structure and momentum models tend to repeat themselves at the right edge of your video screen with great regularity. It's our own emotions we must contend with that would have us believe something outside the market itself is actually at work. Put these models into a Trade Plan. See nothing else. Know nothing else. Be the Plan.
Fri Feb 12 Trade Summary
20160212
Long 2 TF 959.8, 959.5, +2.0, +2.3
Long 1 TF 959.2, -0.7
Long 2 TF 957.9, 958.2, +1.0, -0.0
Long 2 TF 956.9, 956.8, +1.0, +2.0
Total TF +7.6
Long 2 TF 959.8, 959.5, +2.0, +2.3
Long 1 TF 959.2, -0.7
Long 2 TF 957.9, 958.2, +1.0, -0.0
Long 2 TF 956.9, 956.8, +1.0, +2.0
Total TF +7.6
Thur Feb 11 Trades & Journal
20160211
Long 1 TF 945.4, -0.0
Long 1 TF 944.3, -0.0
Short 1 TF 950.5, +2.0
Short 1 TF 951.0, -1.5
Short 1 YM 15710, +30
Short 1 TF 954.0, -0.7
Short 1 TF 954.4, +2.0
Long 1 TF 947.5, -1.0
Long 2 TF 947.0, 947.5, +2.0, +1.0
Total YM +30
Total TF +3.8
Resolutions to change behavior are must easier to write than to keep. Today I did the same error as yesterday, letting go of the early buy signals because I lost faith in choppy action. Yes, I could make the same excuse that Yellen was yappin', but in truth it was just my head that wasn't on that well. Yellen made no difference to the success of both day's early buy signals. Both needed to be allowed to work. So how does one change behavior. One thing that clearly helps is to add the resolution into your Trade Plan and then read that addendum on the following day just before trading begins. Get the message into your head. Give your trader voice. Let that voice be the guide that you listen to, and not the appraisal of your tape reading Analyst, or your loss fearing Accountant. Be the Trader.
Long 1 TF 945.4, -0.0
Long 1 TF 944.3, -0.0
Short 1 TF 950.5, +2.0
Short 1 TF 951.0, -1.5
Short 1 YM 15710, +30
Short 1 TF 954.0, -0.7
Short 1 TF 954.4, +2.0
Long 1 TF 947.5, -1.0
Long 2 TF 947.0, 947.5, +2.0, +1.0
Total YM +30
Total TF +3.8
Resolutions to change behavior are must easier to write than to keep. Today I did the same error as yesterday, letting go of the early buy signals because I lost faith in choppy action. Yes, I could make the same excuse that Yellen was yappin', but in truth it was just my head that wasn't on that well. Yellen made no difference to the success of both day's early buy signals. Both needed to be allowed to work. So how does one change behavior. One thing that clearly helps is to add the resolution into your Trade Plan and then read that addendum on the following day just before trading begins. Get the message into your head. Give your trader voice. Let that voice be the guide that you listen to, and not the appraisal of your tape reading Analyst, or your loss fearing Accountant. Be the Trader.
Wed Feb 10 Trades & Journal
20160210
Long 1 TF 965.1, +1.0
Short 1 TF 971.5, +1.0
Short 1 TF 975.2, +1.0
Total TF +3.0
Anticipated news can make the market action appear jittery and stutter-step at the turns. ...thus it was today in the early going with Fed Chairman Yellen scheduled at the hour. It's not like a simple econ report that is released-and-done-with. Testimony can drag on and so position commitments are halfhearted. ...at least that's what I keep telling myself was the reason for dumping positions with so small a gain each time. Consequently, I left a day's profit goal on the table with two of my three positions, otherwise easily gained. Action is deceiving. Take the position for the signal it offered and forget about the action. Trading on price action is the act of opening the door on intuition. 'Price action' is all the rage now. Having given up on sacred science like Elliott Wave and Fibonacci, Steidlmayer's Market Profile and now even algorithmic high-frequency entries, the traders have returned to plain intuitive 'tape reading', which discredited by blown out accounts years ago, has been brushed up with the new coat of verbal paint called 'price action'....no doubt soon to be discredited again by similar results. Trade with a Plan. Look for entry models from disparate technical elements that arrive simultaneously at the right edge of the video screen regardless of the oft deceptive appearance of 'price action'. Then, manage the outcome.
Long 1 TF 965.1, +1.0
Short 1 TF 971.5, +1.0
Short 1 TF 975.2, +1.0
Total TF +3.0
Anticipated news can make the market action appear jittery and stutter-step at the turns. ...thus it was today in the early going with Fed Chairman Yellen scheduled at the hour. It's not like a simple econ report that is released-and-done-with. Testimony can drag on and so position commitments are halfhearted. ...at least that's what I keep telling myself was the reason for dumping positions with so small a gain each time. Consequently, I left a day's profit goal on the table with two of my three positions, otherwise easily gained. Action is deceiving. Take the position for the signal it offered and forget about the action. Trading on price action is the act of opening the door on intuition. 'Price action' is all the rage now. Having given up on sacred science like Elliott Wave and Fibonacci, Steidlmayer's Market Profile and now even algorithmic high-frequency entries, the traders have returned to plain intuitive 'tape reading', which discredited by blown out accounts years ago, has been brushed up with the new coat of verbal paint called 'price action'....no doubt soon to be discredited again by similar results. Trade with a Plan. Look for entry models from disparate technical elements that arrive simultaneously at the right edge of the video screen regardless of the oft deceptive appearance of 'price action'. Then, manage the outcome.
Tues Feb 9 Trade Summary
20160209
Short 1 ES 1839.5, +3.0
Short 2 TF 966.3, 967.4, -1.7, -1.4
Short 2 TF 969.0, 969.0, 969.4, +2.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 997.7, +3.0
Total ES +3.0
Total TF +5.9
Short 1 ES 1839.5, +3.0
Short 2 TF 966.3, 967.4, -1.7, -1.4
Short 2 TF 969.0, 969.0, 969.4, +2.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 997.7, +3.0
Total ES +3.0
Total TF +5.9
Mon Feb 8 Trade Summary
20160208
Short 2 TF 968.6, 969.6, -1.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 969.9, +3.0
Long 1 TF 964.5, -1.0
Long 2 TF 961.7, 962.0, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 961.6, +1.3
Long 2 TF 960.3, +2.0
Long 1 TF 959.9, -0.7
Long 1 NQ 3916.25, +10.0
Short 1 TF 964.4, +2.0
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +6.7
Short 2 TF 968.6, 969.6, -1.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 969.9, +3.0
Long 1 TF 964.5, -1.0
Long 2 TF 961.7, 962.0, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 961.6, +1.3
Long 2 TF 960.3, +2.0
Long 1 TF 959.9, -0.7
Long 1 NQ 3916.25, +10.0
Short 1 TF 964.4, +2.0
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +6.7
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