20140717
Short 2 TF 1144.6, 1144.5, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1145.8, 1145.6, +1.2, +2.3
Short 1 YM 17064, -7
Short 2 TF 1145.5, 1145.7, +0.7, +0.8
Long 1 TF 1142.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1147.3, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1142.7, +2.0
Total YM -7
Total TF +8.6
Wed Jul 16 Trade Summary
20140716
Long 1 TF 1151.1, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1151.3, 1151.4, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 YM 17049, 17047, -6, -5
Short 2 ES 1975.25, 1975.25, -0.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1153.0, 1153.0, +0.7, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1145.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1146.7, 1146.2, -0.8, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1145.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1145.1, 1145.2, +0.4, +1.7
Long 2 TF 1143.4, 1144.0, +1.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1143.9, +1.2
Total YM -11
Total ES +2.0
Total TF +3.1
Long 1 TF 1151.1, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1151.3, 1151.4, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 YM 17049, 17047, -6, -5
Short 2 ES 1975.25, 1975.25, -0.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1153.0, 1153.0, +0.7, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1145.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1146.7, 1146.2, -0.8, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1145.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1145.1, 1145.2, +0.4, +1.7
Long 2 TF 1143.4, 1144.0, +1.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1143.9, +1.2
Total YM -11
Total ES +2.0
Total TF +3.1
Tues Jul 15 Trades & Journal
20140715
Short 2 NQ 3930.5, 3951.5, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1164.7, 1164.7, +0.7, +1.7
Long 2 TF 1160.2, 1159.2, -0.0, -0.4
Long 2 NQ 3923.75, 3923.75, +2.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1153.1, 1152.9, -0.7, -0.5,
Long 3 TF 1152.9, 1153.3, 1152.8, +1.2, +2.0, +1.2
Long 1 YM 16973, -7
Long 1 TF 1147.3, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 3897.5, +6.0
Total YM -7
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +5.2
If Test-n-Reject is indeed the more common Day Model, then at the very least it deserves more complexity and a more patient exit strategy once a 1st trend reversal has gotten started. Today, although positioned for it, I missed most of the selling excursion because I let go that position too early, and didn't give the deserved complexity any respect. I took the safe exits on the early shorts instead. The tendency when recognizing having made that error, would be to try and correct it while making subsequent trades as the trend you vacated continues. But if then forced to find counter-trend trades, this error-correction thing only adds to your mistake as the 'safe exits' to initial resistance is exactly the right thing to do in a counter-trend position. I've made that over-corrective or miss-corrective mistake plenty of times before, and today, at least can say that I didn't add to the mistake of exiting too soon in-trend by trying to exit too late in counter-trend. I guess improvements to trading can come in small increments.... ...but must find keys to an earlier awareness of the potential Day Model, as such would have benefited Day Model exit outcomes much better. Be prepared. Consider your exit strategies BEFORE the trade is filled. Question all 'easy' habits and those that make you feel more comfortable.
Short 2 NQ 3930.5, 3951.5, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1164.7, 1164.7, +0.7, +1.7
Long 2 TF 1160.2, 1159.2, -0.0, -0.4
Long 2 NQ 3923.75, 3923.75, +2.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1153.1, 1152.9, -0.7, -0.5,
Long 3 TF 1152.9, 1153.3, 1152.8, +1.2, +2.0, +1.2
Long 1 YM 16973, -7
Long 1 TF 1147.3, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 3897.5, +6.0
Total YM -7
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +5.2
If Test-n-Reject is indeed the more common Day Model, then at the very least it deserves more complexity and a more patient exit strategy once a 1st trend reversal has gotten started. Today, although positioned for it, I missed most of the selling excursion because I let go that position too early, and didn't give the deserved complexity any respect. I took the safe exits on the early shorts instead. The tendency when recognizing having made that error, would be to try and correct it while making subsequent trades as the trend you vacated continues. But if then forced to find counter-trend trades, this error-correction thing only adds to your mistake as the 'safe exits' to initial resistance is exactly the right thing to do in a counter-trend position. I've made that over-corrective or miss-corrective mistake plenty of times before, and today, at least can say that I didn't add to the mistake of exiting too soon in-trend by trying to exit too late in counter-trend. I guess improvements to trading can come in small increments.... ...but must find keys to an earlier awareness of the potential Day Model, as such would have benefited Day Model exit outcomes much better. Be prepared. Consider your exit strategies BEFORE the trade is filled. Question all 'easy' habits and those that make you feel more comfortable.
Mon Jul 14 Trades & Journal
20140714
Short 3 NQ 3916.5, 3916.5, 3818.25, -0.75, +0.25, +3.0
Short 2 NQ 3919.5, 1919.0, +1.0, -1.0
Long 3 TF 1161.3, 1161.1, 1160.7, -0.7, +0.7, +1.3
Long 2 TF 1159.9, 1159.6, +1.0, -0.6
Long 1 TF 1159.8, -0.8
Long 1 TF 1159.3, 1159.1, +1.5, +0.7
Total NQ +2.25
Total TF +3.1
Patience is a key element to successful trading. ...but so is striking quickly at the right time, so also a key is timely exits near the exhaustion or resistance levels. ...but when to apply patience is clearly a difficult thing to time. One thing to look for in applying some patience, is the emotional context of feeling compelled to get rid of a position that struggled so hard to finally turn. By the time it finally does, you're mentally fried, and know you might not be able to handle the even bigger emotional strain of watching it all dissipate and give up such hard earned profits even if the target hasn't been met. Then let entries at turns that really annoy and frustrate trigger a rule of behavior: once out of a messy turn but into the advancing trends with some minimum profits finally in hand, keep your trailing stp's well back. Give it some rope. To the extent of its troubles in making the turn, is potentially a stretch of undisturbed excursion. Relax. Their should be a more rewarding impulse type action when the fire of the budding trend finally takes hold in the awareness of other traders, who have been as deeply affected by the strain of the turn as have you.
Short 3 NQ 3916.5, 3916.5, 3818.25, -0.75, +0.25, +3.0
Short 2 NQ 3919.5, 1919.0, +1.0, -1.0
Long 3 TF 1161.3, 1161.1, 1160.7, -0.7, +0.7, +1.3
Long 2 TF 1159.9, 1159.6, +1.0, -0.6
Long 1 TF 1159.8, -0.8
Long 1 TF 1159.3, 1159.1, +1.5, +0.7
Total NQ +2.25
Total TF +3.1
Patience is a key element to successful trading. ...but so is striking quickly at the right time, so also a key is timely exits near the exhaustion or resistance levels. ...but when to apply patience is clearly a difficult thing to time. One thing to look for in applying some patience, is the emotional context of feeling compelled to get rid of a position that struggled so hard to finally turn. By the time it finally does, you're mentally fried, and know you might not be able to handle the even bigger emotional strain of watching it all dissipate and give up such hard earned profits even if the target hasn't been met. Then let entries at turns that really annoy and frustrate trigger a rule of behavior: once out of a messy turn but into the advancing trends with some minimum profits finally in hand, keep your trailing stp's well back. Give it some rope. To the extent of its troubles in making the turn, is potentially a stretch of undisturbed excursion. Relax. Their should be a more rewarding impulse type action when the fire of the budding trend finally takes hold in the awareness of other traders, who have been as deeply affected by the strain of the turn as have you.
Fri Jul 11 Trades & Journal
20140711
Long 2 NQ 3875.75, 3875.75, -1.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1151.2, 1151.3, +0.7, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1155.6, 1155.7, -0.4, -0.5
Short 3 NQ 3886.25, 3886.5, 3880.0, -0.0, -2.5, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1156.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1155.4, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1153.0, +2.0
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF +3.1
Today's action and outcome served to remind us how important it is to participate in the right breakout plays. One cannot always rely on fades and pullbacks alone. Although both those were the thrust of today's profits, several of those a little later failed and took me back to break-even on the day. When the right breakout signal appeared, it simply triggered no reaction or adjustment in my head. I just sat there with a long that should have then become a Stp-n-Rev position. Everything about that more complex entry model was right.... except my head. Pay attention to what you are doing. Consider the possibilities like a checklist in your brain. Assume nothing. Any sign of comfort or acquiescence in a position is a sign of an impending blind spot to outcomes. Position for the outcomes when the entries are complex. The trades will take care of themselves.
Long 2 NQ 3875.75, 3875.75, -1.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1151.2, 1151.3, +0.7, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1155.6, 1155.7, -0.4, -0.5
Short 3 NQ 3886.25, 3886.5, 3880.0, -0.0, -2.5, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1156.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1155.4, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1153.0, +2.0
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF +3.1
Today's action and outcome served to remind us how important it is to participate in the right breakout plays. One cannot always rely on fades and pullbacks alone. Although both those were the thrust of today's profits, several of those a little later failed and took me back to break-even on the day. When the right breakout signal appeared, it simply triggered no reaction or adjustment in my head. I just sat there with a long that should have then become a Stp-n-Rev position. Everything about that more complex entry model was right.... except my head. Pay attention to what you are doing. Consider the possibilities like a checklist in your brain. Assume nothing. Any sign of comfort or acquiescence in a position is a sign of an impending blind spot to outcomes. Position for the outcomes when the entries are complex. The trades will take care of themselves.
Thurs Jul 10 Trades & Journal
20140710
Short 3 NQ 3847.25, 3846.75, 3846.5, +2.0, +4.0, +8.5
Long 1 TF 1147.8, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1146.8, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1147.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1146.2, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1146.3, +2.0
Total NQ +14.5
Total TF +1.7
After the initial swings, trades became harder to find, and most arrived with a good deal of conflicting filters. Flat is a position too.
Short 3 NQ 3847.25, 3846.75, 3846.5, +2.0, +4.0, +8.5
Long 1 TF 1147.8, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1146.8, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1147.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1146.2, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1146.3, +2.0
Total NQ +14.5
Total TF +1.7
After the initial swings, trades became harder to find, and most arrived with a good deal of conflicting filters. Flat is a position too.
Wed Jul 9 Trades & Journal
20140709
Short 1 TF 1174.7, -0.3
Long 2 YM 16884, 16883, -7, -7
Long 2 TF 1172.7, 1172.7, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1172.5, 1172.5, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1168.7, 1168.7, +0.7, -0.7
Long 1 YM 16853, -7
Long 1 NQ 3853.0, -2.0
Long 3 TF 1167.2, 1167.2, 1166.7, +0.5, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1166.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1165.8, 1165.8, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1166.7, +2.0
Totay YM -21
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +5.4
Sometimes the action itself discourages trades, choppiness, whiplash action, etc. But this is usually just weakness on our part. The signals are there, or they reappear after stp-outs, and it simply requires bigger heart to step back into them. Thus is was today on an earlier short opportunity coming off the initial highs. Because of managing the trades itself, I lost focus on what the signals were and how those signals were being re-created. Trading requires that difficult dichotomy of being totally focused but relaxed at the same time. Note what's really in front of you and trade what you see when price fulfills an entry model you have pre-selected as part of your Trade Plan.
Short 1 TF 1174.7, -0.3
Long 2 YM 16884, 16883, -7, -7
Long 2 TF 1172.7, 1172.7, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1172.5, 1172.5, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1168.7, 1168.7, +0.7, -0.7
Long 1 YM 16853, -7
Long 1 NQ 3853.0, -2.0
Long 3 TF 1167.2, 1167.2, 1166.7, +0.5, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1166.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1165.8, 1165.8, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1166.7, +2.0
Totay YM -21
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +5.4
Sometimes the action itself discourages trades, choppiness, whiplash action, etc. But this is usually just weakness on our part. The signals are there, or they reappear after stp-outs, and it simply requires bigger heart to step back into them. Thus is was today on an earlier short opportunity coming off the initial highs. Because of managing the trades itself, I lost focus on what the signals were and how those signals were being re-created. Trading requires that difficult dichotomy of being totally focused but relaxed at the same time. Note what's really in front of you and trade what you see when price fulfills an entry model you have pre-selected as part of your Trade Plan.
Tues Jul 8 Trades & Journal
20140708
Long 2 YM 16857, 16857, +7, -0
Long 1 NQ 3884.0, -0.25
Long 2 NQ 3882.5, 3882.0, -1.25, -0.75
Long 2 YM 16855, 16855, -0, -6
Long 2 NQ 3877.5, 3877.5, -1.0, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 3877.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3877.0, 3877.0, +2.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1169.9, 1169.9, +0.4, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1166.3, 1166.5, +1.4, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1163.8, +1.5
Total YM +1
Total NQ -5.25
Total TF +8.3
Although early in the day yet as I post, a 2nd Persistent Trend Day Down in row could be sign of budding bear market. ...but we've heard that before... Today, failed to get in sync with two model entry pullbacks because they failed to reach resistance. Instead, I should have had trailing sell stp's for 1-lots ready on both opportunities despite their shortcomings, so was overcautious there. But did manage to short a breakdown in the breakout trend entry model just recently added to the Plan. Breakouts remain a mental challenge to my trading, but have taken this one now several times with continued success, and want to reinforce the habit with a brief glove-clap. Focus is always critical. And today's breakdown play came with a Turn-n-Rev back to long as a critical hourly low was taken. Without the diligence to mark and monitor those lows, that Turn-n-Rev could never have been managed correctly. Stay disciplined. Don't predict; position.
Long 2 YM 16857, 16857, +7, -0
Long 1 NQ 3884.0, -0.25
Long 2 NQ 3882.5, 3882.0, -1.25, -0.75
Long 2 YM 16855, 16855, -0, -6
Long 2 NQ 3877.5, 3877.5, -1.0, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 3877.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3877.0, 3877.0, +2.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1169.9, 1169.9, +0.4, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1166.3, 1166.5, +1.4, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1163.8, +1.5
Total YM +1
Total NQ -5.25
Total TF +8.3
Although early in the day yet as I post, a 2nd Persistent Trend Day Down in row could be sign of budding bear market. ...but we've heard that before... Today, failed to get in sync with two model entry pullbacks because they failed to reach resistance. Instead, I should have had trailing sell stp's for 1-lots ready on both opportunities despite their shortcomings, so was overcautious there. But did manage to short a breakdown in the breakout trend entry model just recently added to the Plan. Breakouts remain a mental challenge to my trading, but have taken this one now several times with continued success, and want to reinforce the habit with a brief glove-clap. Focus is always critical. And today's breakdown play came with a Turn-n-Rev back to long as a critical hourly low was taken. Without the diligence to mark and monitor those lows, that Turn-n-Rev could never have been managed correctly. Stay disciplined. Don't predict; position.
Mon Jul 7 Trade Summary
20140707
Short 2 TF 1196.8, +1.4, +2.0
Short 1 YM 16924, -2
Short 1 TF 1196.4, +1.1
Long 1 TF 1193.3, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1196.3, +1.4
Short 1 YM 16955, +11
Total YM +9
Total TF +5.3
Short 2 TF 1196.8, +1.4, +2.0
Short 1 YM 16924, -2
Short 1 TF 1196.4, +1.1
Long 1 TF 1193.3, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1196.3, +1.4
Short 1 YM 16955, +11
Total YM +9
Total TF +5.3
Thurs Jul 3 Trades & Journal
20140703
Long 2 TF 1201.0, 1201.2, +0.8, +1.3
Long 1 TF 1199.1, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1198.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1198.1, 1198.1, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1200.1, 1200.2, +0.7, +0.8
Short 1 TF 1201.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1202.0, 1201.9, +0.7, +0.6
Total TF +5.6
Want to wish all a great July 4th Independence Day. Is a tradition with some of my family to gather and play small-olympics with kids. Games and teams and beer and barbeque. And we even start the festivities by singing the Star Spangled Banner. Our fireworks are small... but we have big hearts... and we love this country dearly. ...and stand to be in the number who are so very very proud to be American. God bless all....
Long 2 TF 1201.0, 1201.2, +0.8, +1.3
Long 1 TF 1199.1, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1198.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1198.1, 1198.1, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1200.1, 1200.2, +0.7, +0.8
Short 1 TF 1201.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1202.0, 1201.9, +0.7, +0.6
Total TF +5.6
Want to wish all a great July 4th Independence Day. Is a tradition with some of my family to gather and play small-olympics with kids. Games and teams and beer and barbeque. And we even start the festivities by singing the Star Spangled Banner. Our fireworks are small... but we have big hearts... and we love this country dearly. ...and stand to be in the number who are so very very proud to be American. God bless all....
Wed Jul 2 Trade Summary
20140702
Short 2 YM 16902, 16901, +7, +8
Long 2 TF 1203.2, 1202.7, +0.9, +1.3
Long 2 TF 1102.3, 1102.4, +1.2, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1200.3, 1200.4, +0.6, +1.7
Total YM +15
Total TF +6.2
Short 2 YM 16902, 16901, +7, +8
Long 2 TF 1203.2, 1202.7, +0.9, +1.3
Long 2 TF 1102.3, 1102.4, +1.2, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1200.3, 1200.4, +0.6, +1.7
Total YM +15
Total TF +6.2
Tues Jul 1 Trades & Journal
20140701
Short 1 NQ 3858.0, -1.0
Short 1 YM 16842, +11
Short 2 NQ 3863.75, 38.62.75, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 3866.25, 3866.25, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1180.6, 1180.7, -0.7, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1202.0, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1201.8, 1201.7, 1002.2, -0.9, -0.4, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1102.8, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1203.9, +0.8
Long 2 YM 16849, 16849, +5, +15
Short 1 TF 1205.2, +1.3
Total NQ -1.0
Total YM +31
Total TF +1.4
Always tough finding way into an in-trend play on a Persistent Trend Day model. Did take a breakout that was added to Trade Plan just a couple weeks ago for the first time, and was rewarded for it ....but also took a breakout that was not in Trade Plan design.... and was duly punished for it as well. Borrowed sell signals from 3 other contracts in order to short the TF on a retest, but that failed as well. Am not ready, however, to remove all borrowing from Trade Plan, as that technique is usually far more successful... just not today. Stay focused.
Short 1 NQ 3858.0, -1.0
Short 1 YM 16842, +11
Short 2 NQ 3863.75, 38.62.75, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 3866.25, 3866.25, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1180.6, 1180.7, -0.7, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1202.0, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1201.8, 1201.7, 1002.2, -0.9, -0.4, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1102.8, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1203.9, +0.8
Long 2 YM 16849, 16849, +5, +15
Short 1 TF 1205.2, +1.3
Total NQ -1.0
Total YM +31
Total TF +1.4
Always tough finding way into an in-trend play on a Persistent Trend Day model. Did take a breakout that was added to Trade Plan just a couple weeks ago for the first time, and was rewarded for it ....but also took a breakout that was not in Trade Plan design.... and was duly punished for it as well. Borrowed sell signals from 3 other contracts in order to short the TF on a retest, but that failed as well. Am not ready, however, to remove all borrowing from Trade Plan, as that technique is usually far more successful... just not today. Stay focused.
Mon Jun 30 Trades & Journal
20140630
Short 1 NQ 3836.25, -1.5
Short 2 YM 16740, 16738, +7, +10
Long 1 YM 16719, +12
Short 1 TF 1184.0, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1182.7, 1182.8, -0.5, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 3843.5, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1184.9, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1185.1, +1.3
Long 1 TF 1183.6, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1182.9, 1183.2, -0.5, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1182.2, -0.6
Long 3 TF 1181.4, 1181.4, 1184.5, +0.7, +0.5, +0.9
Total NQ -2.5
Total YM +29
Total TF +3.0
There's a good question to ask yourself when reviewing the days trades and market action. What were you thinking at the turns? ...or put another way, what were your prejudices at the places that turned out just minutes later to have been the better market opportunities of the day? That's why writing a journal immediately after your trading is better than waiting even an hour, let alone a whole day. .....because you can't remember emotional states that well. They don't linger on, and they are supplanted by the next one erasing the previous one. But if the opportunities in question arrives within the scope and entry models of your trade plan, then something must have kept you out of the trade. What was that thing..? ...that impression? .....that prejudice?
For those of us who have at least conquered some of those prejudices, and have learned to take the trades from our trade plan as they appear at the right edge of the video screen, that important self-improvement question can use a little tweaking. What were you thinking at the places where a runner should have been established instead of exiting with such a nominal profit at the junctures that ended up producing the most important excursions of the frame? And if you are at this point in your trading, you may be able to find the door to the next level of profits you seek to ascend from nominal but already consistent profits to highly rewarding and outstanding daily returns. Let's repeat that question more often during the day. Let's review the day with that question in mind after the end of the first frame has revealed the real excursions from those that were only nominal blips. Let's write that question down on a yellow sticky and put it up on the monitor. And after a few days, let's rewrite it on a blue or pink or any other color sticky so as to keep that consideration freshly before us at all times. Improvement never comes easy. It usually must be goaded along in drips and stumbles. Get focused on it. ...and if it turns out that the best excursions in the day are appearing without triggering a solid resemblance to entry models in your plan, then you need a new Trade Plan, or at least an aptly improved one.
Short 1 NQ 3836.25, -1.5
Short 2 YM 16740, 16738, +7, +10
Long 1 YM 16719, +12
Short 1 TF 1184.0, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1182.7, 1182.8, -0.5, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 3843.5, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1184.9, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1185.1, +1.3
Long 1 TF 1183.6, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1182.9, 1183.2, -0.5, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1182.2, -0.6
Long 3 TF 1181.4, 1181.4, 1184.5, +0.7, +0.5, +0.9
Total NQ -2.5
Total YM +29
Total TF +3.0
There's a good question to ask yourself when reviewing the days trades and market action. What were you thinking at the turns? ...or put another way, what were your prejudices at the places that turned out just minutes later to have been the better market opportunities of the day? That's why writing a journal immediately after your trading is better than waiting even an hour, let alone a whole day. .....because you can't remember emotional states that well. They don't linger on, and they are supplanted by the next one erasing the previous one. But if the opportunities in question arrives within the scope and entry models of your trade plan, then something must have kept you out of the trade. What was that thing..? ...that impression? .....that prejudice?
For those of us who have at least conquered some of those prejudices, and have learned to take the trades from our trade plan as they appear at the right edge of the video screen, that important self-improvement question can use a little tweaking. What were you thinking at the places where a runner should have been established instead of exiting with such a nominal profit at the junctures that ended up producing the most important excursions of the frame? And if you are at this point in your trading, you may be able to find the door to the next level of profits you seek to ascend from nominal but already consistent profits to highly rewarding and outstanding daily returns. Let's repeat that question more often during the day. Let's review the day with that question in mind after the end of the first frame has revealed the real excursions from those that were only nominal blips. Let's write that question down on a yellow sticky and put it up on the monitor. And after a few days, let's rewrite it on a blue or pink or any other color sticky so as to keep that consideration freshly before us at all times. Improvement never comes easy. It usually must be goaded along in drips and stumbles. Get focused on it. ...and if it turns out that the best excursions in the day are appearing without triggering a solid resemblance to entry models in your plan, then you need a new Trade Plan, or at least an aptly improved one.
Fri Jun 27 Trades & Journal
20140627
Short 1 TF 1173.3, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1177.9, +0.7, +1.5
Long 1 NQ 3817.25, -1.5
Long 1 TF 1174.2, +1.0
Long 1 YM 16714, +15
Short 1 TF 1177.8, -0.0
Short 1 YM 16748, +7
Total NQ -1.5
Total YM +22
Total TF +2.6
The consequences of taking small 1-lot positions means you have no money management strategy, and the risks of making such positions into runners means you might lose your initial profits from the trade if the budding trend fails to run. Today again, but especially yesterday's first TF short entry, the 1-lot taken meant I missed the ensuing full excursion. Thereafter, as that same full excursion turned into a burning hot impulsive bear collapse, I was left looking for the next trade against the same trend I would have profited immensely by, had I had a runner with which to participate. There are certainly plenty of trades to take using the fractal study we call Serial Sequent within the 1st Frame of the day, but each extra trade taken is a fresh risk, and those signals that produced such great excursions are mostly wasted. Missing, as I did, from a premature 1-lot exit what turned out to be an impulsive in-trend excursion, left me counter-trend trading the violent thrusts of a bear climax... not an easy way to continue in profits, or to make up for the profits I missed by not having the extra units 'running'. Re-examine what is worthy of a 2nd contract that is currently not spelled out specifically enough in the Trade Plan. Whether better to add to the risk of the current position at hand with an additional contract, or add to the risk a bit later by having to take more trades at new junctures is the question. The answer should like in how good those early trade entry models are in the first place vs those at begin to appear as trends reach near-but-perhaps-not-quite-finished climactic finish. ...and a good weekend to all....
Short 1 TF 1173.3, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1177.9, +0.7, +1.5
Long 1 NQ 3817.25, -1.5
Long 1 TF 1174.2, +1.0
Long 1 YM 16714, +15
Short 1 TF 1177.8, -0.0
Short 1 YM 16748, +7
Total NQ -1.5
Total YM +22
Total TF +2.6
The consequences of taking small 1-lot positions means you have no money management strategy, and the risks of making such positions into runners means you might lose your initial profits from the trade if the budding trend fails to run. Today again, but especially yesterday's first TF short entry, the 1-lot taken meant I missed the ensuing full excursion. Thereafter, as that same full excursion turned into a burning hot impulsive bear collapse, I was left looking for the next trade against the same trend I would have profited immensely by, had I had a runner with which to participate. There are certainly plenty of trades to take using the fractal study we call Serial Sequent within the 1st Frame of the day, but each extra trade taken is a fresh risk, and those signals that produced such great excursions are mostly wasted. Missing, as I did, from a premature 1-lot exit what turned out to be an impulsive in-trend excursion, left me counter-trend trading the violent thrusts of a bear climax... not an easy way to continue in profits, or to make up for the profits I missed by not having the extra units 'running'. Re-examine what is worthy of a 2nd contract that is currently not spelled out specifically enough in the Trade Plan. Whether better to add to the risk of the current position at hand with an additional contract, or add to the risk a bit later by having to take more trades at new junctures is the question. The answer should like in how good those early trade entry models are in the first place vs those at begin to appear as trends reach near-but-perhaps-not-quite-finished climactic finish. ...and a good weekend to all....
Thurs Jun 26 Trades & Journal
20140626
Short 1 TF +1.2
Short 2 TF 1174.1, 1173.1, -1.6, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 3804.25, 3804.25, +2.0, -2.0
Long 2 YM 16710, 16712, +7, -7
Long 3 TF 1169.5, 1169.6, 1169.8, +1.5, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 NQ 3790.5, 33790.5, 3790.5, +2, +5.0, +7.0
Short 2 ES 1939.5, 1940.25, -1.5, -0.0
Short 3 TF 1170.2, 1170.6, 1170.3, 1170.6, -0.9, +0.7, -0.8, -0.6
Short 2 NQ 3802.0, 3801.5, +2.0, +4.5
Long 1 NQ 3796.0, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1171.9, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1171.8, -0.1
Total YM, -0
Total ES -1.5
Total NQ +25.5
Total TF -3.4
There is an important point to viewing and trading more than one contract simultaneously. Not all contracts are making lows and highs and pullbacks at the same place. Thus not all sectors offer the same opportunities. On most days, the signals in the TF are more consistent and more indicative of the turns and the breakouts. Today, not so much. But retaining the other contracts within the Trade Plan prevents a myopic market view, as well as offering different levels of risk and opportunity. Sometimes it may seem that the additional concentration to other contracts only bleeds profits off from the winning trades. ...but there is no way to tell in advance which contract will offer the greater percentage of winners. Today only reminds me how important this diversification is, both in comprising the complete signal picture of the days technical events, and cushioning the losing trades with the winners of the better performer.
Short 1 TF +1.2
Short 2 TF 1174.1, 1173.1, -1.6, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 3804.25, 3804.25, +2.0, -2.0
Long 2 YM 16710, 16712, +7, -7
Long 3 TF 1169.5, 1169.6, 1169.8, +1.5, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 NQ 3790.5, 33790.5, 3790.5, +2, +5.0, +7.0
Short 2 ES 1939.5, 1940.25, -1.5, -0.0
Short 3 TF 1170.2, 1170.6, 1170.3, 1170.6, -0.9, +0.7, -0.8, -0.6
Short 2 NQ 3802.0, 3801.5, +2.0, +4.5
Long 1 NQ 3796.0, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1171.9, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1171.8, -0.1
Total YM, -0
Total ES -1.5
Total NQ +25.5
Total TF -3.4
There is an important point to viewing and trading more than one contract simultaneously. Not all contracts are making lows and highs and pullbacks at the same place. Thus not all sectors offer the same opportunities. On most days, the signals in the TF are more consistent and more indicative of the turns and the breakouts. Today, not so much. But retaining the other contracts within the Trade Plan prevents a myopic market view, as well as offering different levels of risk and opportunity. Sometimes it may seem that the additional concentration to other contracts only bleeds profits off from the winning trades. ...but there is no way to tell in advance which contract will offer the greater percentage of winners. Today only reminds me how important this diversification is, both in comprising the complete signal picture of the days technical events, and cushioning the losing trades with the winners of the better performer.
Wed Jun 25 Trades & Journal
20140625
Short 1 YM 16771, +20
Short 2 NQ 3801.0, 3800.5, +2.0, +4.0
Long 3 TF 1167.0, 1167.2, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1166.5, 1167.0, +3.5, +0.5
Total YM +20
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +4.0
The Trade Plan must make accommodations for the frame of day. Since at this stage of my career I only trade the 1st Frame, many of the Midday and Last Hour considerations fall by the wayside, outside my purview. On days like today, there are certainly no regrets for that, as the volatility is mostly released in the early going from the singularity we label the ORB, Opening Range Bar. But looking back on days like yesterday, we have to realize that the biggest, boldest moves often come much later than the 1st Frame. That's fine. Have a plan and stick with it. Suffer no regret at trades outside those limitations, and if / when venturing out into the later frames, be sure your trade entry models accommodate the market's propensity to reverse the initial trend and extend significantly the excursions of the second. What worked as counter trend in the first trend, usually becomes fodder for stp-outs in the second. Adjust your Trade Plan accordingly.
Short 1 YM 16771, +20
Short 2 NQ 3801.0, 3800.5, +2.0, +4.0
Long 3 TF 1167.0, 1167.2, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1166.5, 1167.0, +3.5, +0.5
Total YM +20
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +4.0
The Trade Plan must make accommodations for the frame of day. Since at this stage of my career I only trade the 1st Frame, many of the Midday and Last Hour considerations fall by the wayside, outside my purview. On days like today, there are certainly no regrets for that, as the volatility is mostly released in the early going from the singularity we label the ORB, Opening Range Bar. But looking back on days like yesterday, we have to realize that the biggest, boldest moves often come much later than the 1st Frame. That's fine. Have a plan and stick with it. Suffer no regret at trades outside those limitations, and if / when venturing out into the later frames, be sure your trade entry models accommodate the market's propensity to reverse the initial trend and extend significantly the excursions of the second. What worked as counter trend in the first trend, usually becomes fodder for stp-outs in the second. Adjust your Trade Plan accordingly.
Tues Jun 24 Trades & Journal
20140624
Short 1 NQ 3806.5, -1.5
Short 2 YM 16845, 16845, +7, +14
Long 2 TF 1176.9, 1176,8, -0.6, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1176.8, +3.0
Short 2 TF 1183.6, 1183.6, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3819.25, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1187.0, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1188.3, -0.3
Short 3 TF 1188.3, 1188.3, 1188.3, +0.6, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 YM 16880, +5
Total NQ -3.0
Total YM +26
Total TF +4.7
A number of low volatility days to deal with lately, followed today by an early vertical climb with scant and shallow pullbacks. Today, sticking to the Trade Plan with pre-10am News management rules bumped me out of longs just before the news explosion, but a nice pullback to the tick lap at least got me back in 1/2 position. Better management would have captured far more of that excursion, but I succumbed to taking the nice sounding round number of +3 for a profit, when the whole 2nd TF trend was waiting to be ridden all the up.
We too often have a tendency to want to be sure of making up for our most recent stp-outs when landing in a position worth far more than the mere recapture of those losses. There are just too many cross currents of emotions at such points to reduce the better outcome to a simple set of rules: getting stp'd out of 2 contracts, I tend to go back only in 1. Landing in the budding reversal with 1 means there is no real management strategy to take partial profits. Trailing a stp on a 1-lot position means staying back far enough to risk recovery from losses while giving the new position enough space to breathe, etc., etc. One is reminded of one of Andy Warhol's many famous quotes in such circumstances, "I want to be a machine," and just so the Trader needs often to be more purely mechanical, and leave the creativity to the planning and insight periods when the markets are closed for business and the trade platforms are safely unloaded from our screens.
Short 1 NQ 3806.5, -1.5
Short 2 YM 16845, 16845, +7, +14
Long 2 TF 1176.9, 1176,8, -0.6, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1176.8, +3.0
Short 2 TF 1183.6, 1183.6, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3819.25, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1187.0, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1188.3, -0.3
Short 3 TF 1188.3, 1188.3, 1188.3, +0.6, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 YM 16880, +5
Total NQ -3.0
Total YM +26
Total TF +4.7
A number of low volatility days to deal with lately, followed today by an early vertical climb with scant and shallow pullbacks. Today, sticking to the Trade Plan with pre-10am News management rules bumped me out of longs just before the news explosion, but a nice pullback to the tick lap at least got me back in 1/2 position. Better management would have captured far more of that excursion, but I succumbed to taking the nice sounding round number of +3 for a profit, when the whole 2nd TF trend was waiting to be ridden all the up.
We too often have a tendency to want to be sure of making up for our most recent stp-outs when landing in a position worth far more than the mere recapture of those losses. There are just too many cross currents of emotions at such points to reduce the better outcome to a simple set of rules: getting stp'd out of 2 contracts, I tend to go back only in 1. Landing in the budding reversal with 1 means there is no real management strategy to take partial profits. Trailing a stp on a 1-lot position means staying back far enough to risk recovery from losses while giving the new position enough space to breathe, etc., etc. One is reminded of one of Andy Warhol's many famous quotes in such circumstances, "I want to be a machine," and just so the Trader needs often to be more purely mechanical, and leave the creativity to the planning and insight periods when the markets are closed for business and the trade platforms are safely unloaded from our screens.
Mon Jun 23 Trade Summary
20140623
Long 1 TF 1182.7, -1.4
Short 1 ES 1953.5, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1183.4, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1183.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1184.6, 1184.6 -0.0, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1185.3, 1185.3, +1.5, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 3793.0, 3793.25, -1.25, -1.5
Long 1 YM 16825, +17
Long 1 TF 1180.6, +0.8
Short 1 TF 1180.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1180.0, 1180.0, +0.4, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1178.9, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1178.4, 1178.4, +0.4, -0.4
Long 1 ES 1950.25, +0.5
Total ES -0.5
Total YM +17
Total NQ -2.75
Total TF +0.5
Long 1 TF 1182.7, -1.4
Short 1 ES 1953.5, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1183.4, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1183.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1184.6, 1184.6 -0.0, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1185.3, 1185.3, +1.5, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 3793.0, 3793.25, -1.25, -1.5
Long 1 YM 16825, +17
Long 1 TF 1180.6, +0.8
Short 1 TF 1180.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1180.0, 1180.0, +0.4, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1178.9, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1178.4, 1178.4, +0.4, -0.4
Long 1 ES 1950.25, +0.5
Total ES -0.5
Total YM +17
Total NQ -2.75
Total TF +0.5
Fri Jun 20 Trades & Journal
20140620
Long 4 TF 1176.9, 1176.9, 1177.0, +0.7, +1.5, -0.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1178.6, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1178.7, +1.2
Short 1 YM 16874, -4
Long 1 NQ 3793.25, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3792.0, 3792.0, -1.25, -1.25
Long 1 TF 1177.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1176.7, 1176.7, +0.4, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1176.2, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1178.2, -0.3
Total YM -4
Total NQ -4.5
Total TF +3.7
Let myself be affected by the early shaky action, dumping extra units so as to remain small. ....only to find myself frustrated that I had no 2nd unit to ride the fuller excursions. But the biggest weakness was failure to take a breakout that was just recently added to the Trade Plan. I let the approaching end-of-frame filter be a rationale to avoid it ... only to see it pay off big just as the model prescribed. My constitution is usually weaker on Friday's. Am more eager to get off the floor with any nailed down profits, to avoid the angst of a losing Friday. The Friday thing not much of a concern. ...but since I so rarely add anything to the Trade Plan, I must prove the Plan's authority by being more determined to act on those new models. Get rested. Stay disciplined. cya all next week... a good weekend to all...
Long 4 TF 1176.9, 1176.9, 1177.0, +0.7, +1.5, -0.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1178.6, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1178.7, +1.2
Short 1 YM 16874, -4
Long 1 NQ 3793.25, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3792.0, 3792.0, -1.25, -1.25
Long 1 TF 1177.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1176.7, 1176.7, +0.4, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1176.2, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1178.2, -0.3
Total YM -4
Total NQ -4.5
Total TF +3.7
Let myself be affected by the early shaky action, dumping extra units so as to remain small. ....only to find myself frustrated that I had no 2nd unit to ride the fuller excursions. But the biggest weakness was failure to take a breakout that was just recently added to the Trade Plan. I let the approaching end-of-frame filter be a rationale to avoid it ... only to see it pay off big just as the model prescribed. My constitution is usually weaker on Friday's. Am more eager to get off the floor with any nailed down profits, to avoid the angst of a losing Friday. The Friday thing not much of a concern. ...but since I so rarely add anything to the Trade Plan, I must prove the Plan's authority by being more determined to act on those new models. Get rested. Stay disciplined. cya all next week... a good weekend to all...
Thurs Jun 19 Trade Summary
20140619
Short 1 YM 16820, -9
Long 2 NQ 3799.25, 3799.25, +2.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1181.5, +1.2
Long 1 NQ 3798.5, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1179.3, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1177.8, 1177.8, 1177.8, +0.5, -0.0, -0.3
Long 1 NQ 3792.0, +3.5
Long 1 TF 1177.8, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 3792.0, 3791.75, -1.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1178.9, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1175.6, 1175.4, +1.0, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1178.6, +1.6
Total YM -9
Total NQ +2.5
Total TF +7.1
Short 1 YM 16820, -9
Long 2 NQ 3799.25, 3799.25, +2.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1181.5, +1.2
Long 1 NQ 3798.5, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1179.3, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1177.8, 1177.8, 1177.8, +0.5, -0.0, -0.3
Long 1 NQ 3792.0, +3.5
Long 1 TF 1177.8, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 3792.0, 3791.75, -1.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1178.9, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1175.6, 1175.4, +1.0, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1178.6, +1.6
Total YM -9
Total NQ +2.5
Total TF +7.1
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