20121106
Long 2 TF 820.7, 820.7, +0.5, +1.2
Short 2 TF 822.7, 822.6, -0.2, -0.2
Long 1 TF 819.7, +0.6
Short 4 TF 821.2, 821.1, 821.7, 821.8, -0.0, -1.2, +0.5, -0.4
Long 1 TF 821.2, +1.0
Total TF +1.8
PM Addendum
Long 2 NQ 2672.5, 2672.5, +2, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 2672.0, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 2670.25, +2.0
Long 1 TF 821.9, +0.7
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +2.5
First a comment on the technical side: I made a conscious decision a few years back to only trade the 1st time frame of the day, til around 11:15am. On most days, this is the period of greatest volatility and impulse trend. On those days, the midday frame tends to consolidate or just wander. But this yin yang between the 1st and midday frames can flip. So that when the 1st frame consolidates, a trend will often appear in the midday frame. And just so it was today. On such days, I often try to come back later and trade either the midday or Last hour frame action. But the purpose of this revived journal is really to critique the extent to which I trade a plan. And today, I did make one notable failure worth examining. The pullback to 10:30am was a perfect buy signal after the sell signal at the HOD (high-of-day). That sell signal was whippy and I failed to re enter it after getting stp'd out. And when the buy signal finally arrived, it came on weakening momentum. The support number was valid, as was the structure, and the momentum signal was no longer fresh enough to filter the model out of contention as a trade, but the 'feeling' of the market remained heavy. So, I only took one contract and exited it for only a quick profit. A retest of that same low came just minutes later, and would have provide the same buy entry signal, with a potential stp-n-reverse to short on further weakness. I 'appraised' the market as so weak at that point that I ignored the buy signal on the retest and waited instead for the market to fail that I might get short. But the failure never came. And instead of being long into the full rally back to the HOD, I tried to get short half way back up, still appraising the trend as down, and lost some of my initial profits. Appraising the trend outside of structure can be a dangerous game. It requires tape reading and intuition about overall market conditions. But trading a plan is not tape reading, unless some aspect of tape reading is incorporated into a trade model as a necessary condition filter to the trade. Define the model according to what makes it most consistent. Consistency means it must work far more than half the time. Once qualified, give it a brand name. With a brand name it can be committed to the plan. But once committed, it must be traded, even against 'appraisals' of trend that fear its success at some particular moment. Trade the plan. Keep the discipline...!!
PM Addendum. Came back in the PM and traded the SubSequent Return-to-ORB in the NQ and the TF for small additional gains to AM frame action.
