Trade Summary
20130319
Short 2 YM 14413, 14413, +6, -0
Long 1 TF 945.1, -0.1
Short 2 TF 947.9, 947.6, +1.3, +0.4
Long 2 YM 14428, 14426, -0, -1
Long 1 NQ 2794.5, -0.25
Long 2 TF 944.2, 944.3, -0.2, -0.4
Long 2 NQ 2787.25, 2787.0, -1.25, -1.0
Long 3 TF 942.6, 942.7, 942.2, -0.0, -0.2, +0.4
Long 1 TF 942.2, +1.0
Total YM +6
Total NQ -2.5
Total TF +2.2
In trading, we don't predict. Prediction is useless. In fact, it is worse. Prediction fixes our expectations. At ValhallaFutures, we repeat the Douglas Premise almost like a mantra. "Most of the money that is lost in the markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which way the market was supposed to go." Instead of prediction, we use positioning. At certain junctures in market action, the market could be set to go either way. It's a sort of battle zone for the trend, and the best way to trade at such junctures is to let the market do the talking about where it wants to go. When discussing time cycles, such price junctures are referred to as Inversions. In terms of wave or fractal structure, such junctures are referred to as Inflections. For instance, the raw signals for a trader when some index has fallen in price to complete a wave fractal at a support zone might be 'Buy', with 'Stp n Reverse' back into shorts, should this area give way to further breakage, perhaps after a small bounce or pause pattern.
But so many breakouts fail. And nothing is more discouraging to play a breakout and get stp'd out immediately when it fails. So when constructing a trade plan, you must include appropriate filters to the Stp-n-Reverse side of the trade, filters that should require you to take certain breakouts with a high probability of success, and prevent you entering those with less likely prospects for success.
Our trading course is conducted in a continuing rotation from Lesson Session I thru 10, and then start all over again. Breakout filters are discussed frequently, and those that occurred today which produced such huge bear gains but were not part of my trading plan will come front and center in trade plan considerations, as a potential bear market rotates. Stay focused and stick to your plan. Changes to your trade plan should not be considered lightly. Remember, once committed to your plan, you will need to take those new trade concepts regardless of your opinion as to where the market is trying to go.
