20130930
Short 1 TF 1061.7, -0.5,
Short 2 TF 1063.0, 1063.0, -0.6, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1063.0, 1063.0, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1061.0, 1061.0, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3202.15, -0.25
Short 2 NQ 3205, 3205.0, -1.0, -1.0
Short 2 YM 15065, 15065, -4, -4
Short 2 TF 1063.9, 1064.2, +0.5, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1064.9, 1065.3, +1.4, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 3212.5, 3212.5, -1.5, -0.75
Short 1 TF 1067.3, -0.7
PM trades:
Short 3 TF 1072.9, 1073.0, 1073.8, -0, -0. +1.3
Total NQ -4.5
Total YM -8
Total TF +5.3
The internals looked so poor at the opening, they should have been regarded as good, especially the -1041 tick reading. Any 1000 tick reading rare these days, and should be regarded as initial exhaustion. The initlal shorts into the first spike up were nonetheless the Trade Model calls, and showed good profits, but my entries were impatient, and I failed to wait to a solid resistance number, forcing me to re enter from stop-outs. Be patient, wait til all elements of the model appear, then act decisively. Thereafter, the buy signal in the TF was valid, but with the 2nd buy signals failing to fill, I should have switched over to the YM or NQ in order to participate with the main rally thrust. Without a timely pullback buy entry, you are left fading the extremes of the breakouts, which are counter trend. And those must be timed fairly precisely. Today, fading paid off in the TF because pullbacks were deep enough for profits. Stay focused. Trade within the Plan.
Fri Sep 27 Trades & Journal
20130927
Long 1 TF 1069.8, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1069.8, 1069.8, +0.5, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1068.7, 1068.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1068.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1069.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1068.4, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1072.0, -0.1
Short 1 NQ 3219.75, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1075.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1075.6, 1075.5, +0.5, +1.2
Total NQ -1.5
Total TF +4.2
Trading early in the first frame requires close attention. Signals appear rapidly, and of late, action is volatile,
even though contained in a tight coil pattern. Be ready to act. When the signal comes, act decisively. No hesitation allowed. This is the business of trading in the 1st Frame. ...a good weekend to all....
Long 1 TF 1069.8, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1069.8, 1069.8, +0.5, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1068.7, 1068.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1068.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1069.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1068.4, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1072.0, -0.1
Short 1 NQ 3219.75, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1075.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1075.6, 1075.5, +0.5, +1.2
Total NQ -1.5
Total TF +4.2
Trading early in the first frame requires close attention. Signals appear rapidly, and of late, action is volatile,
even though contained in a tight coil pattern. Be ready to act. When the signal comes, act decisively. No hesitation allowed. This is the business of trading in the 1st Frame. ...a good weekend to all....
Thurs Sep 26 Trades & Journal
20130926
Short 3 YM 15281, 15287, 15288, -11, -5, -4
Short 2 NQ 3230.75, 3231.75, -2.25, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1079.7, +1.7
Short 1 ES 1697.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1074.1, 1074.2, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 ES 1689.75, -0.0
Long 1 YM 15247, -0
Long 1 TF 1069.7, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1068.8, +1.5
Total ES +2.0
Total YM -20
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF +4.2
Volatile days require strict adherence to Trade Plan. As long as the signals are valid, early stop-outs must be overcome mentally if the turn signals are to be achieved with positions. Such was the case today with some extra excursion mileage coming in the early YM NQ short signals. Eventually, more solid ES and TF short signals appeared, and losses were quickly recovered. Stay focused.....
Short 3 YM 15281, 15287, 15288, -11, -5, -4
Short 2 NQ 3230.75, 3231.75, -2.25, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1079.7, +1.7
Short 1 ES 1697.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1074.1, 1074.2, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 ES 1689.75, -0.0
Long 1 YM 15247, -0
Long 1 TF 1069.7, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1068.8, +1.5
Total ES +2.0
Total YM -20
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF +4.2
Volatile days require strict adherence to Trade Plan. As long as the signals are valid, early stop-outs must be overcome mentally if the turn signals are to be achieved with positions. Such was the case today with some extra excursion mileage coming in the early YM NQ short signals. Eventually, more solid ES and TF short signals appeared, and losses were quickly recovered. Stay focused.....
Wed Sep 25 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130925
Short 2 NQ 3206.0, 3206.25, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3198.05, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1071.0, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3207.5, -1.0
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +1.0
There is a Yin Yang to the transitions from one frame to the next. Usually, the 1st frame has all the volatility.
And if the market only coils in the 1st Frame, it's the Midday Frame that gets the trend. Today, the 1st frame was very volatile, so when it came to an end, and a TF buy signal appeared, I ignored it; partly because I tend not to trade into the Midday Frame, and partly because it usually dies off for a few hours into consolidation. But today the 1st Frame had the less common combination of both being volatile, but also a coil, and consequently, that last TF buy signal exploded into the midday with the trendiness to contrast the coil of the 1st frame. I was left watching on the sidelines. My mentor always use to say "Position yourself to be surprised." Stay focused. The Trader's role is not to predict. The Trader's role is to position.
20130925
Short 2 NQ 3206.0, 3206.25, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3198.05, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1071.0, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3207.5, -1.0
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +1.0
There is a Yin Yang to the transitions from one frame to the next. Usually, the 1st frame has all the volatility.
And if the market only coils in the 1st Frame, it's the Midday Frame that gets the trend. Today, the 1st frame was very volatile, so when it came to an end, and a TF buy signal appeared, I ignored it; partly because I tend not to trade into the Midday Frame, and partly because it usually dies off for a few hours into consolidation. But today the 1st Frame had the less common combination of both being volatile, but also a coil, and consequently, that last TF buy signal exploded into the midday with the trendiness to contrast the coil of the 1st frame. I was left watching on the sidelines. My mentor always use to say "Position yourself to be surprised." Stay focused. The Trader's role is not to predict. The Trader's role is to position.
Tues Sep 24 Trades & Journal
20130924
Long 1 ES 1691.5, +2.25
Long 2 TF 1066.3, 1066.5, +0.7, +1.4
Long 3 TF 1065.9, 1066.1, 1065.9, +0.5, -0.0, +0.5
Long 2 YM 15308, 15304, +5, -7
Long 2 YM 15291, 15291, -10, -10
Long 2 TF 1063.9, 1063.9, +0.7, +3.0
Short 3 TF 1073.5, 1073.9, 1073.9, -0.0, -0.1, -0.8
Total ES +2.25
Total YM -22
Total TF +5.9
What is counter trend and what is in-trend can be deceiving to the casual observer in the early going. Remember, Test-n-Reject is the more typical of Day Models, not Persistent Trend, so yesterday's reversal by TF following Friday's Persistent Trend Day Down in the ES and YM built up the potential of a strong Test-n-Reject today--with TF showing its hand at leadership yesterday. Having entered at the LOD, a 3 pt gain in today's reversal seemed paltry, but usually, such a reversal would be accompanied by several pullbacks as 2nd chance entries. Breakout plays were well within the Trade Plan on 2nd Trend Direction setups, but those didn't come til the momentum indicators were pushing up against the ceiling. Missing out on profits is always harder emotionally than even losing capital. Stay focused, and stay within the plan. Trade what's in front of you, that's all you can ever accomplish.
Long 1 ES 1691.5, +2.25
Long 2 TF 1066.3, 1066.5, +0.7, +1.4
Long 3 TF 1065.9, 1066.1, 1065.9, +0.5, -0.0, +0.5
Long 2 YM 15308, 15304, +5, -7
Long 2 YM 15291, 15291, -10, -10
Long 2 TF 1063.9, 1063.9, +0.7, +3.0
Short 3 TF 1073.5, 1073.9, 1073.9, -0.0, -0.1, -0.8
Total ES +2.25
Total YM -22
Total TF +5.9
What is counter trend and what is in-trend can be deceiving to the casual observer in the early going. Remember, Test-n-Reject is the more typical of Day Models, not Persistent Trend, so yesterday's reversal by TF following Friday's Persistent Trend Day Down in the ES and YM built up the potential of a strong Test-n-Reject today--with TF showing its hand at leadership yesterday. Having entered at the LOD, a 3 pt gain in today's reversal seemed paltry, but usually, such a reversal would be accompanied by several pullbacks as 2nd chance entries. Breakout plays were well within the Trade Plan on 2nd Trend Direction setups, but those didn't come til the momentum indicators were pushing up against the ceiling. Missing out on profits is always harder emotionally than even losing capital. Stay focused, and stay within the plan. Trade what's in front of you, that's all you can ever accomplish.
Mon Sep 23 Trades & Journal
20130923
Long 2 TF 1067.4, 1067.4, +0.7, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1066.9, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1066.9, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1066.3, -0.5
Long 2 YM 15356, 15357, +6, -1
Short 2 TF 1066.1, 1065.9, -0.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1065.3, 1065.7, -01, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1065.6, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1064.9, +2.2
Short 1 TF 1063.2, -0.5
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1067.4, 1068.3, -1.4, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1069.8, 1069.7, 1069.6, -0.4, +0.7, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1070.9, 1071.0, 1071.0, +0.5, +0.5, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1069.5, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1069.5, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1070.3, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1069.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1069.1, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1069.2, -0.2
Total YM +5
Total TF +0.1
No methods of decision support can well predict whether the action will be whippy at the breakdown levels. Serial Sequent can be deadly accurate at identifying the inflection levels associated with breakout momentum levels, but not the style of action. And today, several stp-n-rev plays into short were stopped-out. The last of 3 in a row, however, did trend nicely, but otherwise, I was treading water. The idea is always to stay with the trade plan. Some days are better for trending action than others. The trade plan should keep you healthy until then, and also contain losses to a minimum when action is less favorable.
PM Addendum
TF sudden volatility at the end the correction stop'd out my premature short entries, but can not blame anything my failure to adhere to trade plan. The structure was correct, but did not have a resistance number at the price entered, and paid the consequences. The ES and YM levels reached by comparable signals, however, did stick nicely, and had I been more flexible about contract choice, either of those would have shown excellent production. Stick to the plan. The trade management aspect of the plan kept me from losing all the AM profits, but was actually negative on the day with the commissions.
Long 2 TF 1067.4, 1067.4, +0.7, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1066.9, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1066.9, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1066.3, -0.5
Long 2 YM 15356, 15357, +6, -1
Short 2 TF 1066.1, 1065.9, -0.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1065.3, 1065.7, -01, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1065.6, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1064.9, +2.2
Short 1 TF 1063.2, -0.5
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1067.4, 1068.3, -1.4, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1069.8, 1069.7, 1069.6, -0.4, +0.7, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1070.9, 1071.0, 1071.0, +0.5, +0.5, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1069.5, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1069.5, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1070.3, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1069.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1069.1, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1069.2, -0.2
Total YM +5
Total TF +0.1
No methods of decision support can well predict whether the action will be whippy at the breakdown levels. Serial Sequent can be deadly accurate at identifying the inflection levels associated with breakout momentum levels, but not the style of action. And today, several stp-n-rev plays into short were stopped-out. The last of 3 in a row, however, did trend nicely, but otherwise, I was treading water. The idea is always to stay with the trade plan. Some days are better for trending action than others. The trade plan should keep you healthy until then, and also contain losses to a minimum when action is less favorable.
PM Addendum
TF sudden volatility at the end the correction stop'd out my premature short entries, but can not blame anything my failure to adhere to trade plan. The structure was correct, but did not have a resistance number at the price entered, and paid the consequences. The ES and YM levels reached by comparable signals, however, did stick nicely, and had I been more flexible about contract choice, either of those would have shown excellent production. Stick to the plan. The trade management aspect of the plan kept me from losing all the AM profits, but was actually negative on the day with the commissions.
Thurs Sep 19 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130919
Long 2 TF 1073.0, 1073.1, +0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1071.7, 1071.1, 1071.3, -0.0, +1.8, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1070.9, 1070.9, -0.0, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1072.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1069.7, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1070.1, 1070.0, +0.5, +0.7
Long 1 YM 15588, -3
Long 1 TF 1069.1, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1069.1, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1069.0, -0.2
Total YM -3
Total TF +1.9
The clearer signals were from the long side in early going, but were also clearly counter trend to the bearish momentum. Best trades were pullback patterns, and although I tried two of them, I failed to make the connection to the upper line of the declining channel resistance to pick the entry targets, and by the time I figured it out, there were already 4 touch points. This was simply a matter of being lazy and not paying attention to lower frame trend lines. Focus is essential in trading. And your software programs seldom supply all the necessary elements automatically to an entry model.
20130919
Long 2 TF 1073.0, 1073.1, +0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1071.7, 1071.1, 1071.3, -0.0, +1.8, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1070.9, 1070.9, -0.0, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1072.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1069.7, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1070.1, 1070.0, +0.5, +0.7
Long 1 YM 15588, -3
Long 1 TF 1069.1, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1069.1, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1069.0, -0.2
Total YM -3
Total TF +1.9
The clearer signals were from the long side in early going, but were also clearly counter trend to the bearish momentum. Best trades were pullback patterns, and although I tried two of them, I failed to make the connection to the upper line of the declining channel resistance to pick the entry targets, and by the time I figured it out, there were already 4 touch points. This was simply a matter of being lazy and not paying attention to lower frame trend lines. Focus is essential in trading. And your software programs seldom supply all the necessary elements automatically to an entry model.
Wed Sep 18 Trades & Summary
Trade Summary
20130918
Short 2 YM 15448, 15448, -6, -7
Short 2 TF 1063.0, 1063.2, +1.1, +0.4
Short 1 TF 1062.0, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1059.9, 1059.8, -0.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1060.3, 1060.3, +0.4, +1.0
Long 2 YM 15424, 15423, +7, +10
PM Trades
Short 1 TF 1070.6, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1072.0, 1072.0, +0.5, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1072.1, +1.0
Total YM +4
Total TF +4.3
The YM short stop-out was within the management plan, but the TF stop out was a trade I outside of my plan, that I fudged thinking support would hold without structure. It's annoying to miss out on a trade that your intuition and expectations call for even though the trade model is broken or absent. But usually, you pay for that intuition either immediately, or later when you think you're just unbeatable that day. You aren't. When a model fails to gel, or falls apart and does not hold, exit immediately, even at the risk of missing a winner. Stay within your trade plan. Stay disciplined. Today is a much anticipated FOMC day, so will at least come back for that expected volatility and monitor possible trade model setups.
PM Addendum:
The best trade for the PM was the retest of the LOD, pre-FOMC. My excuse for not being in that was absence from the screen, but would have to admit that I would have taken the profits for that entry, even a runner, before the news release, but not because my management called for it.... Shorts at the HOD post news were well within structure, but the 1st entry just too soon for the volatility needed to complete a short term high. The retest was also a trade model entry, and so am glad to have traded within the plan during such volatility. The Trade Models remain the same, regardless of volatility, but entries are far more challenging. Tomorrow, Philly Fed will also provide possible pre-news setups, and being that those outcomes far less volatile than FOMC, is easier to overcome mental blocks of holding a potential runner into the news release itself. Stay focused.....
20130918
Short 2 YM 15448, 15448, -6, -7
Short 2 TF 1063.0, 1063.2, +1.1, +0.4
Short 1 TF 1062.0, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1059.9, 1059.8, -0.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1060.3, 1060.3, +0.4, +1.0
Long 2 YM 15424, 15423, +7, +10
PM Trades
Short 1 TF 1070.6, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1072.0, 1072.0, +0.5, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1072.1, +1.0
Total YM +4
Total TF +4.3
The YM short stop-out was within the management plan, but the TF stop out was a trade I outside of my plan, that I fudged thinking support would hold without structure. It's annoying to miss out on a trade that your intuition and expectations call for even though the trade model is broken or absent. But usually, you pay for that intuition either immediately, or later when you think you're just unbeatable that day. You aren't. When a model fails to gel, or falls apart and does not hold, exit immediately, even at the risk of missing a winner. Stay within your trade plan. Stay disciplined. Today is a much anticipated FOMC day, so will at least come back for that expected volatility and monitor possible trade model setups.
PM Addendum:
The best trade for the PM was the retest of the LOD, pre-FOMC. My excuse for not being in that was absence from the screen, but would have to admit that I would have taken the profits for that entry, even a runner, before the news release, but not because my management called for it.... Shorts at the HOD post news were well within structure, but the 1st entry just too soon for the volatility needed to complete a short term high. The retest was also a trade model entry, and so am glad to have traded within the plan during such volatility. The Trade Models remain the same, regardless of volatility, but entries are far more challenging. Tomorrow, Philly Fed will also provide possible pre-news setups, and being that those outcomes far less volatile than FOMC, is easier to overcome mental blocks of holding a potential runner into the news release itself. Stay focused.....
Tues Sep 17 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130917
Short 3 TF 1055.0, 1056.1, 1056.1, -1.4, -0.3, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1696.75, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1056.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1056.9, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1057.8, 1057.6, +0.7, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1057.6, 1057.7, -0.3, -0.4
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1060.8, 1060.5, +0.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1061.1, 1061.1, -0.2, -0.3
Total ES -0
Total TF -4.2
Yesterday Persistent Trend Day down offered sufficient swings extremes to play in both directions. Today, all pullbacks were shallow in a Persistent Trend Day morning. The last set of shorts eventually did produce a payoff but I lost patience as my loss limit approached. Some days better for trading than others. The NQ could have offered at least one bull breakout play to capture a piece of the early going, and I must be willing to include and act on the more volatile NQ for such setups as it can sometimes be the only way to jump aboard a vertical market and still remain within the Trade Plan. Action item: review and resolve.
20130917
Short 3 TF 1055.0, 1056.1, 1056.1, -1.4, -0.3, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1696.75, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1056.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1056.9, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1057.8, 1057.6, +0.7, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1057.6, 1057.7, -0.3, -0.4
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1060.8, 1060.5, +0.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1061.1, 1061.1, -0.2, -0.3
Total ES -0
Total TF -4.2
Yesterday Persistent Trend Day down offered sufficient swings extremes to play in both directions. Today, all pullbacks were shallow in a Persistent Trend Day morning. The last set of shorts eventually did produce a payoff but I lost patience as my loss limit approached. Some days better for trading than others. The NQ could have offered at least one bull breakout play to capture a piece of the early going, and I must be willing to include and act on the more volatile NQ for such setups as it can sometimes be the only way to jump aboard a vertical market and still remain within the Trade Plan. Action item: review and resolve.
Mon Sep 16 Trades & Journal
20130916
Long 2 NQ 3189.0, 3187.25, -0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1057.4, 1057.5, -0. -0
Short 3 TF 1057.6, 1058.0, 1057.8, -1.0, +0.5, +0.4
Short 3 TF 1059.4, 1059.3, 1059.4, +0.7, +1.1, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1056.6, 1056.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1055.8, +0.7, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1055.0, 1054.9, +1.0, +0.5
PM Trades:
Long 2 YM 15416, 15414, +10, +5
Total YM +15
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +4.4
Sometimes prices open at such extremes that you can just smell a gap close coming. But once you introduce intuition into your Trade Plan, it starts leaking in at other occasions less convincing. Intuition has no qualifiers. It always feels like the right direction. Today, had no short signal at the opening, despite the strong odor in the extreme price highs, but a good bounce midway down provided one. Thereafter, the Plan spotted the lows quite well in the NQ and the TF, although the TF came a bit shy of the more ideal entry level, and so had to to scramble. Also backed out of two long entries today, when the structure failed to hold the right plan model, and was rewarded by getting out about b/e on those. It's important not to talk yourself into holding a position when the pattern and price described by the model deteriorate. No trade decision is ever 'General Custer". You take trade entries for a specific set of conditions, and even if price is holding, you should exit that trade quickly if the reason you entered the trade can no longer be seen. Stay disciplined.
Long 2 NQ 3189.0, 3187.25, -0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1057.4, 1057.5, -0. -0
Short 3 TF 1057.6, 1058.0, 1057.8, -1.0, +0.5, +0.4
Short 3 TF 1059.4, 1059.3, 1059.4, +0.7, +1.1, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1056.6, 1056.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1055.8, +0.7, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1055.0, 1054.9, +1.0, +0.5
PM Trades:
Long 2 YM 15416, 15414, +10, +5
Total YM +15
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +4.4
Sometimes prices open at such extremes that you can just smell a gap close coming. But once you introduce intuition into your Trade Plan, it starts leaking in at other occasions less convincing. Intuition has no qualifiers. It always feels like the right direction. Today, had no short signal at the opening, despite the strong odor in the extreme price highs, but a good bounce midway down provided one. Thereafter, the Plan spotted the lows quite well in the NQ and the TF, although the TF came a bit shy of the more ideal entry level, and so had to to scramble. Also backed out of two long entries today, when the structure failed to hold the right plan model, and was rewarded by getting out about b/e on those. It's important not to talk yourself into holding a position when the pattern and price described by the model deteriorate. No trade decision is ever 'General Custer". You take trade entries for a specific set of conditions, and even if price is holding, you should exit that trade quickly if the reason you entered the trade can no longer be seen. Stay disciplined.
Fri Sep 13 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130913
Short 2 NQ 3174.0, 3174.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 YM 15277, 15300, -4, -1
Short 1 TF 1048.2, +1.1
Long 2 YM 15279, 15278, +1, -4
Long 1 YM 15263, +15
Total YM +7
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +1.0
Guess I was reacting still to the need to post a profitable week, but in truth the reason for the 1 lot trade size today was more a quickness in the turns. Since I usually try to get a 2nd or 3rd contract as some kind of base builds, I can miss out of those additional positions if price takes off immediately from ID'd support/resistance. But at least all five days this week profitable, and that's important coming off a losing week last week. Consistency is more important than missed opportunities. Don't play catch-up. Find the consistency you lost, and you will catch up with all your losses. ...and a good weekend to all...
20130913
Short 2 NQ 3174.0, 3174.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 YM 15277, 15300, -4, -1
Short 1 TF 1048.2, +1.1
Long 2 YM 15279, 15278, +1, -4
Long 1 YM 15263, +15
Total YM +7
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +1.0
Guess I was reacting still to the need to post a profitable week, but in truth the reason for the 1 lot trade size today was more a quickness in the turns. Since I usually try to get a 2nd or 3rd contract as some kind of base builds, I can miss out of those additional positions if price takes off immediately from ID'd support/resistance. But at least all five days this week profitable, and that's important coming off a losing week last week. Consistency is more important than missed opportunities. Don't play catch-up. Find the consistency you lost, and you will catch up with all your losses. ...and a good weekend to all...
Thurs Sep 12 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130912
Long 2 TF 1052.4, 1052.4, +0.7, +1.2
Long 1 ES 1685.75, +1.25
Short 2 TF 1054.3, 1054.4, -0.4, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15334, 15334, -2, -1
Short 2 NQ 3182.75, 3182.75, +2.0, +3.0
PM trades:
Short 2 TF 10551.1, 1051.2, -0.3, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1051.2, 1051.3, -0.2, -0.3
Total ES +1.25
Total NQ +5.0
Total YM -3
Total TF +0.0
Diverging leadership again today between the YM and the TF. Yesterday, YM won out handily, but today, TF not so willing. PM whipsaws stopped out two trend entry signals in both directions, but both trades were within the Plan models, arriving near the Transition Time. Sometimes, just walking away is better than giving up small gains for reappearing opportunities. And even a small winning week after a losing one helps to get back in sync. Stay disciplined.
20130912
Long 2 TF 1052.4, 1052.4, +0.7, +1.2
Long 1 ES 1685.75, +1.25
Short 2 TF 1054.3, 1054.4, -0.4, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15334, 15334, -2, -1
Short 2 NQ 3182.75, 3182.75, +2.0, +3.0
PM trades:
Short 2 TF 10551.1, 1051.2, -0.3, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1051.2, 1051.3, -0.2, -0.3
Total ES +1.25
Total NQ +5.0
Total YM -3
Total TF +0.0
Diverging leadership again today between the YM and the TF. Yesterday, YM won out handily, but today, TF not so willing. PM whipsaws stopped out two trend entry signals in both directions, but both trades were within the Plan models, arriving near the Transition Time. Sometimes, just walking away is better than giving up small gains for reappearing opportunities. And even a small winning week after a losing one helps to get back in sync. Stay disciplined.
Wed Sep 11 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130911
Short 2 YM 115218, 15221, -4, +7
Long 2 TF 1051.2, 1051.2, +0.5, +1.1
Short 2 TF 1053.3, 1053.4, +1.0, +0.5
Total YM +3
Total TF +3.1
After reaching this minimum profit level, balked at buying an ES long signal at the 10:30am Trend Check. Could have taken that with minimum risk, but in fact, there was a critical momentum component missing. Also ducked at least one short scalp trade opp in the TF after reaching this level. But the important thing is getting one's consistency back. That consists of posting profits nearly every day. And after a losing week, it is so very important to come back with a winning week, even if it was done with limited risks. Two losing weeks in a row can be so dibiliating mentally, and mental factors, notwithstanding the goal to trade indifferently to emotions, can nonetheless have such an overriding effect on all your trading efforts. Establish consistency. Trade the Plan. Be willing to quit after reaching a profit goal. It's far more important to finish the day having rung decent profits up on the cash register than worry about any missed trade opportunities, when the goal is so clearly a return-to-consistency.
20130911
Short 2 YM 115218, 15221, -4, +7
Long 2 TF 1051.2, 1051.2, +0.5, +1.1
Short 2 TF 1053.3, 1053.4, +1.0, +0.5
Total YM +3
Total TF +3.1
After reaching this minimum profit level, balked at buying an ES long signal at the 10:30am Trend Check. Could have taken that with minimum risk, but in fact, there was a critical momentum component missing. Also ducked at least one short scalp trade opp in the TF after reaching this level. But the important thing is getting one's consistency back. That consists of posting profits nearly every day. And after a losing week, it is so very important to come back with a winning week, even if it was done with limited risks. Two losing weeks in a row can be so dibiliating mentally, and mental factors, notwithstanding the goal to trade indifferently to emotions, can nonetheless have such an overriding effect on all your trading efforts. Establish consistency. Trade the Plan. Be willing to quit after reaching a profit goal. It's far more important to finish the day having rung decent profits up on the cash register than worry about any missed trade opportunities, when the goal is so clearly a return-to-consistency.
Tues Sep 10 Trades and Journal
Trade Summary
20130910
Short 3 TF 1050.1, 1049.9, 1051.1, -1.5, -1.4, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1052.1, 1051.9, 1051.9, +1.0, +1.2, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1051.7, 1051.6, +1.0, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1052.3, 1052.1, 1052.2, -0.6, -0.7, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1052.5, 1052.5, 1052.5, +0.5, +1.5, -0.8
Short 2 TF 1051.7, 1052.0, -0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1051.8, 1052.1, -0.6, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1052.4, 1052.5, +0.5, -0.8
Short 2 TF 1053.1, 1053.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1052.9, 1052.8, +2.0, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1050.4, 1050.3, 1050.2, -0.4 +0.5, +0.5
Total TF +2.3
Hard fought battles today at the potential turns, with a very choppy first trend up, in what should have been a Test-n-Reject pattern in the the Day Model sequence cycle. You have to work with what's offered. And sometimes trading more like boxing, where a punch from your opponent leaves him open to a re entry signal and an opportunity to turn the tide. Such it was today. When things get difficult, stay focused on the signals, because in choppy, whippy action those signals can follow one on top of the other. Be ready to take quick partial exits to pay for the trade, and take 2nd and/or 3rd units as the turn forms at better prices in order to take those quick exits. Then work the runner for a target support/resistance number. Then keep an eye on your maximum allowable trades. If things not going well, don't let emotions drive you to exceed those limits. Take a break, get away from screen. Action will improve on subsequent days, but you must keep your capital intact for better opportunities when they do arrive.
20130910
Short 3 TF 1050.1, 1049.9, 1051.1, -1.5, -1.4, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1052.1, 1051.9, 1051.9, +1.0, +1.2, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1051.7, 1051.6, +1.0, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1052.3, 1052.1, 1052.2, -0.6, -0.7, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1052.5, 1052.5, 1052.5, +0.5, +1.5, -0.8
Short 2 TF 1051.7, 1052.0, -0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1051.8, 1052.1, -0.6, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1052.4, 1052.5, +0.5, -0.8
Short 2 TF 1053.1, 1053.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1052.9, 1052.8, +2.0, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1050.4, 1050.3, 1050.2, -0.4 +0.5, +0.5
Total TF +2.3
Hard fought battles today at the potential turns, with a very choppy first trend up, in what should have been a Test-n-Reject pattern in the the Day Model sequence cycle. You have to work with what's offered. And sometimes trading more like boxing, where a punch from your opponent leaves him open to a re entry signal and an opportunity to turn the tide. Such it was today. When things get difficult, stay focused on the signals, because in choppy, whippy action those signals can follow one on top of the other. Be ready to take quick partial exits to pay for the trade, and take 2nd and/or 3rd units as the turn forms at better prices in order to take those quick exits. Then work the runner for a target support/resistance number. Then keep an eye on your maximum allowable trades. If things not going well, don't let emotions drive you to exceed those limits. Take a break, get away from screen. Action will improve on subsequent days, but you must keep your capital intact for better opportunities when they do arrive.
Mon Sep 9 Trades & Summary
Trade Summary
20130909
Simulator Trades
Short 2 YM 14996, 14996, +7, -7
Short 3 TF 1035.8, 1036.3, 1036.2, -1.4, +0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1037.1, 1037.1, 1037.3, +2.0, +0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1036.1, 1035.9, +0.5, +0.4
Short 1 TF 1036.8, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1038.1, 1037.9, +0.9, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1038.4, 1038.6, +0.5, +0.5,
Total YM -0
Total TF +4.6
PM Trades Cash Trades
Short 1 TF 1043.7, +0.9
Short 2 TF 1044.7, 1044.7, +0.4, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1045.2, 1045.3, 1045.4, -0.0, +0.4, +0.5
PM Total TF +1.7
All these trades were taken on the simulator this morning, as required by a trip wire in my Trade Plan. Last week a losing week, and although the 1st in a year, still doesn't change the Behavior Governor to quit trading real money and take a series of trades on the simulator. Is a bit humbling to do this, but have found over the years that P&L far more important than being right about the next set of trades. And missing a few profits is really not the point for the long term. What matters in the long term is consistency. Although I posted those trades in this blog,
they will not appear in the Performance Archive, as I don't count those on the simulator towards those totals.
PM Addendum Some ok signals at the 2:30 Transition Time, and again at the Cash Closing, both fit trade models but TF Persistent Trend Day action seems to have denied any real correction at the short entry points. At least these last trades were from outside the penalty box of the simulator and can claim a few dollars to pay the bills with today... Stay focused and stick to the Plan !!
20130909
Simulator Trades
Short 2 YM 14996, 14996, +7, -7
Short 3 TF 1035.8, 1036.3, 1036.2, -1.4, +0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1037.1, 1037.1, 1037.3, +2.0, +0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1036.1, 1035.9, +0.5, +0.4
Short 1 TF 1036.8, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1038.1, 1037.9, +0.9, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1038.4, 1038.6, +0.5, +0.5,
Total YM -0
Total TF +4.6
PM Trades Cash Trades
Short 1 TF 1043.7, +0.9
Short 2 TF 1044.7, 1044.7, +0.4, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1045.2, 1045.3, 1045.4, -0.0, +0.4, +0.5
PM Total TF +1.7
All these trades were taken on the simulator this morning, as required by a trip wire in my Trade Plan. Last week a losing week, and although the 1st in a year, still doesn't change the Behavior Governor to quit trading real money and take a series of trades on the simulator. Is a bit humbling to do this, but have found over the years that P&L far more important than being right about the next set of trades. And missing a few profits is really not the point for the long term. What matters in the long term is consistency. Although I posted those trades in this blog,
they will not appear in the Performance Archive, as I don't count those on the simulator towards those totals.
PM Addendum Some ok signals at the 2:30 Transition Time, and again at the Cash Closing, both fit trade models but TF Persistent Trend Day action seems to have denied any real correction at the short entry points. At least these last trades were from outside the penalty box of the simulator and can claim a few dollars to pay the bills with today... Stay focused and stick to the Plan !!
Fri Sep 6 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130906
Long 2 TF 1022.8, 1021.6, -2.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1018.7, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1018.3, 1018.3, -0.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1021.1, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1022.2, -0,5, -0,5
Short 2 TF 1025.7, 1025.7, -0,4 -0.4
Total TF -5.8
Made a number of mistakes today, and stepped outside my Trading Models at a time when I probably should only have watching anyway. One support level after another gave way, and once the sharp V-Bottom was in, I ignored the bullish momentum readings trying to short as price met resistance levels on the way back up. They held no better than did the support levels on the way down. An adherence to the rules of the TTI momentum indicator would have kept me out of the short attempts altogether, except for maybe the small losses taken for the final trades. With only one profitable day in 4 this week, have to post a losing week for the first time in a year. A Behavior Governor in my Trade Plan requires that I begin Monday with trades outside my cash account on the simulator, until I am back in sync. Wishing all a good weekend. Will lick my wounds, and look forward to getting back next week!
20130906
Long 2 TF 1022.8, 1021.6, -2.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1018.7, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1018.3, 1018.3, -0.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1021.1, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1022.2, -0,5, -0,5
Short 2 TF 1025.7, 1025.7, -0,4 -0.4
Total TF -5.8
Made a number of mistakes today, and stepped outside my Trading Models at a time when I probably should only have watching anyway. One support level after another gave way, and once the sharp V-Bottom was in, I ignored the bullish momentum readings trying to short as price met resistance levels on the way back up. They held no better than did the support levels on the way down. An adherence to the rules of the TTI momentum indicator would have kept me out of the short attempts altogether, except for maybe the small losses taken for the final trades. With only one profitable day in 4 this week, have to post a losing week for the first time in a year. A Behavior Governor in my Trade Plan requires that I begin Monday with trades outside my cash account on the simulator, until I am back in sync. Wishing all a good weekend. Will lick my wounds, and look forward to getting back next week!
Thurs Sep 5 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130905
Short 3 TF 1029.3, 1029.3, 1029.2 +0.5, +0.5 +1.6
PM trades
Short 1 TF 1029.9, +1.2
Total TF +3.8
As yesterday's losses were under a 3 pt loss quota, and Tuesday morning's losses were trimmed by PM trades, ...and I because forgot this morning... I did not instigate my 'go to simulator' rule, which triggers after 2 losing days in a row. But I did proceed with caution and was careful only to wait til both price and structure aligned for a short today as the Test n Reject pattern of the early going set in. A breakdown trade in the YM would have added to profits, but I balked. At least I put myself back on track a bit with today's trade decisions, having done so well in August where the trading is usually poor, didn't want to start off in Sept digging a hole. One day at a time....
Stay disciplined.
PM Addendum:
The 2:30 Transition Time offered another short opp for a 1-lot trade, and added a bit to the day's modest P&L. Is important to establish series of winning days, and especially important to end a day after 2 losing days prior back in the black. Like weekend golfers, the temptation is to focus more on the big drives rather than the short game or the total score. But short term gratification almost always is paid for by a suffering outcome. Stick with your Trade Plan. Limit your trades and monitor your status for the week when things not going so well. The best way to dig yourself out of a hole is not to get in one in the first place.
20130905
Short 3 TF 1029.3, 1029.3, 1029.2 +0.5, +0.5 +1.6
PM trades
Short 1 TF 1029.9, +1.2
Total TF +3.8
As yesterday's losses were under a 3 pt loss quota, and Tuesday morning's losses were trimmed by PM trades, ...and I because forgot this morning... I did not instigate my 'go to simulator' rule, which triggers after 2 losing days in a row. But I did proceed with caution and was careful only to wait til both price and structure aligned for a short today as the Test n Reject pattern of the early going set in. A breakdown trade in the YM would have added to profits, but I balked. At least I put myself back on track a bit with today's trade decisions, having done so well in August where the trading is usually poor, didn't want to start off in Sept digging a hole. One day at a time....
Stay disciplined.
PM Addendum:
The 2:30 Transition Time offered another short opp for a 1-lot trade, and added a bit to the day's modest P&L. Is important to establish series of winning days, and especially important to end a day after 2 losing days prior back in the black. Like weekend golfers, the temptation is to focus more on the big drives rather than the short game or the total score. But short term gratification almost always is paid for by a suffering outcome. Stick with your Trade Plan. Limit your trades and monitor your status for the week when things not going so well. The best way to dig yourself out of a hole is not to get in one in the first place.
Wed Sep 4 Trades & Summary
Trade Summary
20130904
Short 2 YM 14837, 14836, -7, -0
Short 1 YM 14850, -5
Short 2 TF 1019.5, 1019.4, , -0.4, -0.5
Short 3 YM 14863, 14862, 14870, -0, -5, -5
Short 2 TF 1020.7, 1020.7, +0.5, -0.3
Short 2 YM 14871, 14870, -5, -6
Short 4 TF 1021.0, 1021.1, 1021.2, 1021.0, +0.7, -0.2, -0.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1022.5, 1022.2, +0.5, -0.7
Short 3 YM 14888, 14886, 14887, -6, -0, -7
Short 2 TF 1023.6, 1023.7, +0.5, +0.5
Total YM -46
Total TF -0.3
Although we had a good support number at the very low of the day in some initial selling, the signal was incomplete and the benefits to sticking to the Trade Plan models far outweighs the occasionally lucky hit of trading from just numbers by themselves. Today's action straight up throughout the 1st Frame, and pullbacks for the shorts where
structure and price aligned were extremely shallow. ....these are always the harder markets to trade. Although the losses were small these past 2 days, that's still 2 losing days in a row for me, and in my Trade Plan, that means
I start tomorrow off on the trade simulator. The point of such strict money management rules is to keep from digging deep into a negative hole for the week. If simulated profits remain unattainable from here, then a big draw-down is avoided. Money management is far more important than being right, and a consistent methodology should get back on track in time to recapture losses fairly quickly, even if a few good trades are missed while on the simulator. Stay disciplined. Have a Plan and stick to it.
20130904
Short 2 YM 14837, 14836, -7, -0
Short 1 YM 14850, -5
Short 2 TF 1019.5, 1019.4, , -0.4, -0.5
Short 3 YM 14863, 14862, 14870, -0, -5, -5
Short 2 TF 1020.7, 1020.7, +0.5, -0.3
Short 2 YM 14871, 14870, -5, -6
Short 4 TF 1021.0, 1021.1, 1021.2, 1021.0, +0.7, -0.2, -0.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1022.5, 1022.2, +0.5, -0.7
Short 3 YM 14888, 14886, 14887, -6, -0, -7
Short 2 TF 1023.6, 1023.7, +0.5, +0.5
Total YM -46
Total TF -0.3
Although we had a good support number at the very low of the day in some initial selling, the signal was incomplete and the benefits to sticking to the Trade Plan models far outweighs the occasionally lucky hit of trading from just numbers by themselves. Today's action straight up throughout the 1st Frame, and pullbacks for the shorts where
structure and price aligned were extremely shallow. ....these are always the harder markets to trade. Although the losses were small these past 2 days, that's still 2 losing days in a row for me, and in my Trade Plan, that means
I start tomorrow off on the trade simulator. The point of such strict money management rules is to keep from digging deep into a negative hole for the week. If simulated profits remain unattainable from here, then a big draw-down is avoided. Money management is far more important than being right, and a consistent methodology should get back on track in time to recapture losses fairly quickly, even if a few good trades are missed while on the simulator. Stay disciplined. Have a Plan and stick to it.
Tues Sep 3 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130903
Long 3 TF 1027.1, 1026.7, 1026.1, -0.0, +0,5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1025.8, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1024.6, 1024.3, -0.7, -0.5
Long 4 TF 1021.0, 1019.8, 1019.0, 1018.9, -2.5, -1.4, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1014.8, 1014.8, +0.7, +1.5
PM trades:
Long 1 TF 1007.4, +0.8,
Long 1 TF 1007.1, +1.1
Total TF -3.6
Not a pretty beginning to the month. Biggest failing today was in stretching out a stp loss, and adding to it outside my money management rules. That would have reduced my losses by nearly 3 pts on the day, but irregardless, it would have been a losing day for me. I did stick to the mm requirement to only take simulator trades after those initial set of losses, until I had posted 2 of 3 trades as winners on the simulator. That allowed me to come back with that last trade in real money for a decent profit, albeit only a dent into my day's losses. I also balked at a bear inflection breakdown play in the TF, but would have had to survive a big whipsaw before enjoying the profits of the mornings big plunge down. And even if partial exits there, would have been stp'd out no better than breakeven. I'll study it all again for awhile this afternoon, to see if anything more constructive should be added to the journal. In general, losing days are the best for education. Winning days have little to teach you besides reinforcement in your trade plan. Control the number and depth of losing days, and winning days can shine.
PM Addendum:
Good signal at the Transition Time for a sharp short covering rally. Lost faith early with it, and had no real runner. This is what you get mentally when playing catch up. You don't want to add to a day already in the red, so when profits do appear, you tend to exit too soon. Is not something I've even attempted to master, that is putting the days losses totally behind when some minimum profits appear. Tomorrow is another day....
20130903
Long 3 TF 1027.1, 1026.7, 1026.1, -0.0, +0,5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1025.8, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1024.6, 1024.3, -0.7, -0.5
Long 4 TF 1021.0, 1019.8, 1019.0, 1018.9, -2.5, -1.4, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1014.8, 1014.8, +0.7, +1.5
PM trades:
Long 1 TF 1007.4, +0.8,
Long 1 TF 1007.1, +1.1
Total TF -3.6
Not a pretty beginning to the month. Biggest failing today was in stretching out a stp loss, and adding to it outside my money management rules. That would have reduced my losses by nearly 3 pts on the day, but irregardless, it would have been a losing day for me. I did stick to the mm requirement to only take simulator trades after those initial set of losses, until I had posted 2 of 3 trades as winners on the simulator. That allowed me to come back with that last trade in real money for a decent profit, albeit only a dent into my day's losses. I also balked at a bear inflection breakdown play in the TF, but would have had to survive a big whipsaw before enjoying the profits of the mornings big plunge down. And even if partial exits there, would have been stp'd out no better than breakeven. I'll study it all again for awhile this afternoon, to see if anything more constructive should be added to the journal. In general, losing days are the best for education. Winning days have little to teach you besides reinforcement in your trade plan. Control the number and depth of losing days, and winning days can shine.
PM Addendum:
Good signal at the Transition Time for a sharp short covering rally. Lost faith early with it, and had no real runner. This is what you get mentally when playing catch up. You don't want to add to a day already in the red, so when profits do appear, you tend to exit too soon. Is not something I've even attempted to master, that is putting the days losses totally behind when some minimum profits appear. Tomorrow is another day....
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)