20131204
Short 1 TF 1121.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1120.0, +1.0
Short 2 YM 15887, 15887, -5, -5
Short 2 YM 15893, 15893, -5, -5
Short 3 TF 1125.0, 1125.5, 1126.0, -0.2, -1.0, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3489.5, 3490.25, -2.5, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1128.5, 1128.7, -0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1128.7, 1128.9, -0.5, -0.2
Midday Frame Trades:
Long 2 TF 1124.0, 1123.5, -1.4, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1122.3, 1122.3, 1122.2, -0.4, -0.4, +1.0
Long 3 YM 15866, 15866, 15866, -5, -5, -5
Long 2 TF 1120.7, 1120.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 YM 15862, 15862, 15862, +15, +15, +20
Long 2 TF 1119.9, 1120.0, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1119.3, 1119.3, 1119.2, -0.5, -0.5, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1119.4, 1119.9, +1.0, +0.7
Total YM +15
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF -3.3
Far outside the normal volatility tolerance of most traders and trade strategies today, except for breakout players, who must be celebrating hard. The best fitting Trade Entry Model to today's action in our Plan was the Pre-News buy signals just prior to the Housing Numbers. Several students apparently got fills but I missed in both the YM and TF where the signals occurred....and then a huge vertical move straight up without me. The profits missed always smart more than the losses accrued, even those shorts at the very highs that I was continually stop'd out of.....right before the big total give-back collapse. Guess you'd say it just wasn't my day. The hesitation I made just a before Pre-10am News was clearly a mental error, but with 2 pts already in hand at that time, is one I'm familiar with, as I tend to get protective about early profits....usually to my detriment. After that, my I suffered non-buyer's regret at all the great profits that woulda-coulda been had I been filled at the lows Pre-News, and suffered from trying to 'get even' with the market by shorting it too quickly. Then too, I ignored the in-plan breakout plays that would have netted good participation in the last part of both the rally to the highs and the sell-off to the lows. So still being affected in my trading by my mental blocks against taking breakouts. Somedays' are just perfect for range expansion and Serial Sequent Inflection breakout trades. Others, not so much. The skill in recognizing the day for what it is early on, and approaching the action with a clear head without trend prejudice, non-participation remorse, or the desire to prove you can out smart the trend by stepping in front of it early are integral to the best mental game a trader can have. When the day presents itself, believe in it, and go with what's offered. A breakout trade taken, but failed is no shameful act as long as the model is in your plan. ...it just makes you feel stupid quickly if you buy a false breakout or sell a false breakdown and are immediately stp'd out. Live with it. Be the Trader. The Trader doesn't care. He is judged by his adherence to the Trade Plan, not his genius insights or tape reading skills. Those belong to the Analyst, and he is not allowed to trade your account in real-time. Challenge him to refine all breakout triggers and model criteria. Then follow the plan. Money management and loss limitations will take you out before you're ruined the week in any single day's trade action. And if in the plan, valid breakout models will keep you in the game and part of the day's true character.
