20150512
Short 1 NQ 4385.5, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1215.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1217.5, 1217.5, +1.0, +1.8
Short 1 TF 1218.2, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1219.1, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1221.2, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1223.6, 1223.6, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1223.8, 1223.8, -0.5, -0.5
Short 4 TF 1227.2, 1227.2, 1227.2, 1226.8, +0.7, +0.7, -0.3, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1227.5, 1226.8, +2.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1229.8, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1230.0, +1.7
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +6.4
Have seen a few of these types of reversals of late, coming without a full buy model at the lows, and then exploding on the way back up after a complex congestion pattern. That pattern at the lows came today as a well disguised continuation pattern, and my bearish trend prejudice wouldn't let me get my head around the clear breakout levels established by the YM and NQ. Instead, I let myself be mesmerized by the TF bearish divergence and general heaviness. Not only did it keep me from buy the breakout levels offered so nicely by YM and NQ, it got shorting the TF too early on the way back up, as if unable to acknowledge the TF's occasional propensity to play catch-up when in disguise. Take the trades as you see them. Forget your trend prejudice... or better yet, acknowledge that you have a distinct bias which is no doubt reflected by a predominance of traders in kind, thus putting yourself on the wrong side of the market, the majority opinion side. Acknowledge your trend prejudice as a 'tell', and consider what that could cause if the market gets pushed in the opposite direction. Remember Corollary #2., that "....most of the opportunity in the markets is missed by the traders who couldn't concede that the market could go the expected distance, but in the opposite direction."
