20150707
Long 2 TF 1233.9, 1233.6, -0.9, +0.7
Long 4 TF 1232.3, 1232.3, 1231.5, 1231.5, +0.2, +0.1, +2.0, +1.9
Long 1 TF 1231.8, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1231.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1231.8, -0.9
Short 1 TF 1230.5, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1229.0, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1227.6, 1227.6, 1227.4, -0.7, -0.7, +0.7
Long 1 ES 2043.0, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1225.7, 1225.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1222.6, 1222.6, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1222.3, 1222.3, 1223.6, +3.0, +3.5, +2.0
Total ES -1.5
Total TF +6.6
Low volatility days can put you to sleep. You almost forget how to trade bigger volatility. And the absence of real bear market development does the same. ...then, it reappears. Today, all four contracts created pre-break pause patterns simultaneously for bear leg trigger. I recognized the juncture. Went long, and then did, in fact, go short as the Trade Plan prescribed. But then I lost faith once I was triggered into the short, and backed out the short at break-even... only to watch the expected bear leg tack on a further 10 pt decline ....without me. Whether this show of bear fur is really the beginning of a greater period of volatility and steep impulse action is unknowable. And I'm guilty of calling at least 6 of the last 0 bear markets the past few years... at least in my head, if not out loud in the trade room. But it's not a matter of if the bear returns, but only a matter of when. And with all the Hindenburg sell signals that have appeared in the last weeks, a bear is now very likely only matter of days away. When it comes, the impulse moves tend to be strong, and one must master and have faith in the breakdown signal levels when they appear, as counter trend fades can be far more difficult and costly once those impulse breaks do appear.
