Tues Oct 31 Trade Signal Summary

20171031
Long 2 RTY 1496.8, 1496.8, +1.0, +2.4
Short 2 RTY 1499.3, 1500.0, -0.0, +2.0
Long 1 RTY 1494.9, -0.3
Short 1 NQ 6239.25, -1.0
Short 1 NQ 6240.0, -1.0
Short 1 RTY 1499.4, +1.2
Total NQ -2.0
Total RTY +6.3

Mon Oct 30, Trade Signal Summary & Journal

20171030
Long 3 RTY 1501.1, 1501.4, 1501.5, +1.0, -1.0, -0.7
Short 3 NQ 6230.5, 6230.5, 6231.75, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0
Short 3 NQ 6233.75, 6233.75, 6233.25, +3.0, +3.0, -1.0
Long 2 RTY 1498.6, 1498.6, +1.0, +3.0
Short 2 RTY 1503.3, 1503.3 +1.0, +2.1
Short 1 RTY 1503.5, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 6250.5, 6250.5, +5.0, +6.0
Long 2 RTY 1501.8, 1501.4, -0.2, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 6233.5, 6233.5, +2.0, -2.0
Long 3 RTY 1495.9, 1495.9, 1496.1, +1.0, -1.0, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 6218.75, 6218.75, -2.0, -2.0
Long 4 NQ 6217.5, 6217.5, 6217.5, 6217.5, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 RTY 1493.9, 1493.9, +1.0, -0.9
Long 4 NQ 6218.25, 6218.25, 6218.25, 6218.25, +4.0, +4.0, +7.0, +7.0
Long 3 RTY 1492.6, 1492.6, 1492.5, +1.0, +1.0, +1.0
Total NQ +17.0
Total RTY +7.4

Like the 5th game of the World Series last night, I trades too many innings. The true underlying trend often is arrives in the first frame as a disguise. Today, that the disguise was more prominent in the NQ. And with that Mars launch by NQ to another set of new bull market highs came a clear short entry model, right at the top. However, the TF, which has played a good deal of catch-up to NQ's exuberance was fairly consistent in its bear leadership. These two have played a lot of vice-a-versus lately, and it definitely can complicate a set of entry signals where those entry signals depend on breadth. Which breadth do you use ...? Stay with your Plan. Entry signals will sort themselves out along with the trend, and even when that trend remains disguised by faux leadership, the combination of a target accurate Pivot / Exhaustion Grid, momentum, and the amazing fractal algorithm we call Serial Sequent can deliver pieces of the market despite the obscurity of the true underlying trend.

Fri Oct 27 Trade Signal Summary and Journal

20171027
Short 4 RTY 1497.1, 1491.1, 1497.1, 1497.1, +0.7, +0.7, -0.8, -0.8
Short 2 NQ 6164.5, 6164.5, +2.0, -3.0
Short 3 NQ 6166.0, 6166.0, 6166.0, +3.0, +2.0, -5.25
Short 4 RTY 1500.4, 1500.4, 1500.4, 1500.4, +1.0, +1.0, +1.9, +3.0
Short 2 NQ 6171.5, 6171.5, 2.25, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 6180.0, 6180.0, +5.0, +10.0
Total NQ +9.25
Total RTY +6.7

You enter trades on a working assumption that the Trade Entry Models you use work more often than they fail, not because you believe you know which way the market is headed. It's a subtle but critical difference. You manage those entries on the part of that assumption that acknowledges those entry models can't work all the time. Thus, you partial out to pay for the risk of the trade, and them herd cats when/if the remainder of the position goes into profits. The only thinking involved in trading is in the process of learning and compiling one's Trade Entry Models. And that is done with the cool eye of retrospective chart and indicator study--never in real time market action. Once such a trade plan is in place, you take the trades prescribed in your plan whether you 'like' them or not. Anything you don't like about the trade as it takes shape at the right edge of your video screen should be part of the Model itself, and resides there as a filter all the time. Otherwise, any apprehensions should be ignored. The Trader is a machine. The Analyst is the thinker. Put him away after the Opening Bell. He has no place in the activity of real time execution.

Thurs Oct 26 Trade Signals and Journal

20171026
Long 1 NQ 6054.5, +4.0
Long 2 NQ 6052.25, 6052.25, -2.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 6043.0, -2.0
Long 3 NQ 6040.5, 6040.5, 6040.5, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0
Long 4 NQ 6037.5, 6037.5, 6037.5, 6037.5, +5.0, +5.0, -0.0, -0.0
Short 2 RTY 1498.8, 1498.8, +1.3, -1.0
Short 3 NQ 6048.75, 6048.75, 6049.25, +2.0, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 6053.0, 6053.0, -2.0, -2.0
Short 3 RTY 1499.4, 1499.4, 1499.4, -1.4, -1.4, -1.4
Short 3 NQ 6060.5, 6060.5, 6060.5, +2.0, -2.0, -2.0
Short 4 RTY 1502.1, 1502.1, 1502.1, 1502.1, +1.0, +1.0, -0.1, -0.1
Short 2 NQ 6064.75, 6064.75, 6063.5, +2.0, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 6066.0, 6066.0, +5.0, +5.0
Short 2 RTY 1502.9, 1502.9, +1.0, +1.6
Total NQ +2.0
Total RTY +0.5

Sometimes volatility can be a bit overwhelming, and today's two-sided action induced me to enter shorts on the way back up too soon, having not found the signals to buy at the first frame lows. A final set of sell signals were clear and afforded decent short swings from the highs, but I was already too negative on the day to do anything but play catch-up to losses....and with too many trades and commissions, didn't quite even do that. Keep calm during moments of surprise price bursts. Regard the structure, the exhaustion grid and the momentum and just stay in the game. Cool head prevail, even if they don't always profit...


Wed Oct 25 Trade Signal Summary

20171025
Short 2 RTY 1499.4, 1499.3, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 NQ 6074.25, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 6072.0, 6072.00, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 RTY 1498.6, 1499.0, +1.0, +0.2
Long 2 YM 23338, 23338, -0, -0
Long 3 RTY 1493.9, 1493.5, 1493.7, +0.5, +2.0, +1.0
Total NQ -6.0
Total RTY +6.7

Tues Oct 24 Trade Signal Summary

20171024
Long 1 NQ 6064.25, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 6060.5, 6060.5, +2.5, -2.0
Long 3 NQ 6059.0, 6059.0, 6059.0, +4.0, +5.0, +6.0
Long 1 NQ 6060.75, +7.0
Short 1 NQ 6069.75, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 6074.0, 6074.0, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 RTY 1507.1, 1507.1, +1.0, +1.0
Short 3 NQ 6076.75, 6076.25, 6077.75, -0.0, -0.0, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 6082.25, 6092.25, +2.0, +3.0
Total NQ +25.5
Total RTY +2.0

Mon Oct 23 No trades, away for the day.

Fri Oct 20 Trade Signal Summary

20171020
Short 2 NQ 6115.75, 6116.25, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 6117.5, 6117.5, -0.75, -0.75
Short 2 YM 23188, 23188, +10, +10
Short 1 RTY 1511.4, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 6121.5, 6121.5, -0.0, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 6111.25, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 6105.00, +3.0
Total YM +20
Total NQ -0.5
Total RTY -0.7

Thurs Oct 19 Trade Signal Summary

T20171019
Long 2 RTY 1495.1, 1494.4, +1.0, -1.0
Long 1 RTY 1492.5, +3.3
Short 2 RTY 1507.5, 1507.5, +0.7, +1.3
Total RTY +5.3

Wed Oct 18 Trade Signal Summary

20171018
Short 1 NQ 6126.25, -0.25
Long 2 NQ 6119.5, 6119.5, +2.0, +3.0
Long 2 NQ 6112.25, 6112.25, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 6109.75, 9109.75, +4.0, +4.0
Long 1 RTY 1502.3, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 6118.25, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 6123.25, 6123.25, +2.0, +3.0
Total NQ +11.75
Total RTY +2.0

Tues Oct 17 Trade Signal Summary

20171017
Short 1 NQ 6112.75, +2.75
Short 2 NQ 6117.00, 6116.5, +2.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 6107.00, 6107.00, +2.0, +3.0
Long 1 RTY 1504.7, -0.1
Long 1 NQ 6106.5, +4.0
Long 1 RTY 1501.3, +2.0
Total NQ +15.75
Total RTY +1.9

Mon Oct 16 Trade Signals and Journal

20171016
Long 2 RTY 1506.5, 1506.6, +0.7, +0.7
Short 2 RTY 1507.8, 1508.7, -1.4, -1.6
Short 3 NQ 6115.5, 6117.0, 6116.25, -0.5, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 RTY 1512.4, 1512.4, -1.5, -1.5
Long 2 RTY 1509.8, 1509.8, 1508.5, 1508.5, -1.7, -1.7, -1.4, -1.4
Long 2 NQ 6104.25, 6104.25, +3.0, +5.0
Long 4 RTY 1507.1, 1507.1, 1507.2, 1507.2, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 RTY 1507.7, 1507.7, +0.7, +2.0
Long 2 RTY 1504.4, 1504.2, +1.0, +1.0
Total NQ +7.5
Total RTY -8.9

If the first trend of the day tends to be false, as the statistics of the ratio of Test-n-Reject days to Persistent Trend Days suggests, then fading the first trend of the day in favor of the 2nd has the greater chance of success as a trade entry strategy. But sometimes that turn is not easy to find, even when the concept proves out to be correct, as it certainly did today. What this often leaves you with is the feeling of strong internal pressure to capitalize on the remainder of the 1st Frame's opportunities as they appear. And if you miss the fading opportunities of the 1st trend, that pressure to participate will often show up as trade entry signals to fade new price extremes in the 2nd trend direction of the day, which will be far less likely to succeed, as it becomes the trend trend of the day. Resisting the call to take those trades can be a difficult thing. You've missed the early trades, and now you face missing the whole morning without participating... and you have a whole room of students watching you.... Today I did just that, and I was duly punished for my ego by a series of losing trades in the mini Russell. It was only a set of rules to limit losses that kept me from digging myself in deeper. Resist the Song of the Sirens. Sometimes it's better just to sit on your hands, even when faced with an audience that expects good things from you....

Fri Oct 13 Trade Signal Summary

20171013
Short 1 RTY 1505.1, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 6096.0, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 6096.75, +3.0
Short 2 RTY 1506.5, 1506.3, +1.0, -1.0
Short 1 NQ 1698.5, +3.5
Short 1 RTY 1507.6, -1.0
Short 1 RTY 1509.0, -0.7
Short 2 RTY 1509.9, 1509.9, -0.8, -0.8
Short 2 NQ 6102.25, 6102.25, +2.0, +4.0
Long 2 NQ 6097.5, 6097.5, -2.5, -2.5
Long 2 YM 22904, 22804, +10, +10
Total YM +20
Total NQ +7.0
Total RTY -1.3

Thurs Oct 12 Trade Signal Summary

20171012
Long 2 RTY 1501.7, 1507.7, +1.0, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 6085.0, 6085.0, -1.0, -1.0
Short 2 RTY 1510.0, 1510.0, +0.7, +1.7
Total NQ -2.0
Total RTY +5.4

Wed Oct 11 Trade Signal Summary

20171011
Long 1 NQ 6058.75, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 6057.0, 6057.0, +3.0, +5.0
Short 1 NQ 6068.0, -1.0
Short 2 YM 22786, 22786, -2, -2
Long 3 RTY 1508.5, 1508.5, 1508.3, +1.5, +2.2, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 6074.5, +3.0
Short 2 RTY 1511.8, 1511.8, +0.7, +1.0
Total YM -4
Total NQ +8.0
Total RTY +6.3

Tues Oct 10 Trade Summary

20171010
Long 2 NQ 6070.5, 6070.75, +3.0, +2.0
Long 2 RTY 1508.7, 1508.7, +0.7, +1.3
Long 2 NQ 6058.25, 6059.0, +2.0, +3.0
Short 2 RTY 1510.0, 1510.0, -0.0, -0.0
Short 2 NQ 6064.25, 6064.75, +5.0, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 6066.0, -0.0
Total NQ +17.0
Total RTY +2.0

Mon Oct 9 Trade Summary

20171009
Long 2 RTY 1514.4, 1514.4, +1.0, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 6074.75, -0.0
Long 2 NQ 6067.25, 6067.25, +2.0, +3.0
Short 4 RTY 1507.7, 1507.7, 1507.7, 1507.7, -0.2, -0.2, -0.2, -0.2
Total NQ +5.0
Total RTY -0.2

Fri Oct 6 Trade Summary

20171006
Long 2 RTY 1508.9, 1508.9, +1.0, +2.0
Short 2 RTY 1513.5, 1513.7, -0.0, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 6060.0, +5.0
Total NQ +5.0
Total RTY +5.0

Thurs Oct 5 Trade Summary

20171005
Short 2 RTY 1511.9, 1512.2, -1.0, +0.7
Short 2 RTY 1513.0, 1313.1, +2.0, +2.8
Short 2 NQ 6030.0, 6030.0, +2.0, +5.0
Short 2 RTY 1512.4, 1512.4, +0.7, +0.6
Short 1 RTY 1513.2, -0.0
Short 2 RTY 1513.4, 1513.3, +0.5, -0.7
Total NQ +7.0
Total RTY +5.6

Wed Oct 4 Trade Summary

20171004
Short 2 NQ 5995.25, 5995.25, +2.0, +3.0
Long 2 RT 1512.3, 1512.3, -1.4, -1.4
Long 2 NQ 5980.75, 5980.75, +3.0, +6.0
Long 4 RT 1510.3, 1510.3, 1510.5, 1510.5, +0.7, +0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Long 4 RT 1509.9, 1509.9, 1509.9, 1509.9, +1.0, ,+1.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 5989.0, 5989.0, +2.0, -0.0
Short 2 RT 1512.7, 1512.7, +0.7, -0.5
Total NQ +16.0
Total RT +3.4

Tues Oct 3 No Trades. Away from Mkt.

Mon Oct 2 Trade Summary

20171002
Long 2 RTY 1492.5, 1492.2, +1.0, +1.5
Short 1 RTY 1492.2, -0.2
Short 1 RTY 1494.6, -0.0
Short 4 RTY 1497.9, 1497.9, 1497.9, 1497.9, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 NQ 6002.75, 6002.75, +2.0, +3.0
Short 4 RTY 1501.1, 1501.1, 1501.1, 1501.1, -1.4, -1.4, -1.4, -1.4
Short 1 NQ 6004.25, -2.0
Short 6 RTY 1502.3, 1502.3, 1502.3, 1502.3, 1502.3, 1502.3, +2.0, +2.0, +2.0, +2.0, +1.7, +1.7
Short 2 NQ 6009, 6009.0, +2.0, -0.0
Long 2 RTY 1499.4, 1499.4, -1.0, -1.0
Long 3 NQ 5999.5, 5999.5, 5998.75, +2.0, +2.0, +3.0
Long 3 NQ 5999.0, 5999.25, 5997.75, +2.0, +2.0, +6.0
Long 4 RTY 1496.3, 1496.3, 1496.1, 1496.1, +0.8, +0.8, +1.1, +1.1
Long 2 NQ 5976.75, 5976.75, +2.0, -0.0
Total NQ +24.0
Total RTY +3.9