20171016
Long 2 RTY 1506.5, 1506.6, +0.7, +0.7
Short 2 RTY 1507.8, 1508.7, -1.4, -1.6
Short 3 NQ 6115.5, 6117.0, 6116.25, -0.5, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 RTY 1512.4, 1512.4, -1.5, -1.5
Long 2 RTY 1509.8, 1509.8, 1508.5, 1508.5, -1.7, -1.7, -1.4, -1.4
Long 2 NQ 6104.25, 6104.25, +3.0, +5.0
Long 4 RTY 1507.1, 1507.1, 1507.2, 1507.2, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 RTY 1507.7, 1507.7, +0.7, +2.0
Long 2 RTY 1504.4, 1504.2, +1.0, +1.0
Total NQ +7.5
Total RTY -8.9
If the first trend of the day tends to be false, as the statistics of the ratio of Test-n-Reject days to Persistent Trend Days suggests, then fading the first trend of the day in favor of the 2nd has the greater chance of success as a trade entry strategy. But sometimes that turn is not easy to find, even when the concept proves out to be correct, as it certainly did today. What this often leaves you with is the feeling of strong internal pressure to capitalize on the remainder of the 1st Frame's opportunities as they appear. And if you miss the fading opportunities of the 1st trend, that pressure to participate will often show up as trade entry signals to fade new price extremes in the 2nd trend direction of the day, which will be far less likely to succeed, as it becomes the trend trend of the day. Resisting the call to take those trades can be a difficult thing. You've missed the early trades, and now you face missing the whole morning without participating... and you have a whole room of students watching you.... Today I did just that, and I was duly punished for my ego by a series of losing trades in the mini Russell. It was only a set of rules to limit losses that kept me from digging myself in deeper. Resist the Song of the Sirens. Sometimes it's better just to sit on your hands, even when faced with an audience that expects good things from you....
