20180212
Short 1 YM 24519, +40
Long 1 NQ 6498.5, -6.0
Long 2 NQ 6493.25, 6493.25, -3.0, -3.0
Long 3 NQ 6486.75, 6486.75, +5.0, -3.0, -3.0
Long 2 RTY 1474.6, 1474.6, +4.0, +4.0
Long 1 RTY 1474.5, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 6472.5, 6472.5, -3.0, -3.0
Long 3 NQ 6466.0, 6466.0, 6466.0, -3.0, -3.0, -.30
Long 3 NQ 6450.25, 6450.25, 6450.25, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0
Long 4 RTY 1464.8, 1464.8, 1464.8, 1464.8, , +3.0, +3.0, +3.0, +3.0,
Long 3 NQ 6446.5, 6446.5, 6446.5, +10.0, +10.0, -0.75
Long 1 YM 24280, -17
Long 1 NQ 6432.5, -3.0
Long 2 NQ 6431.0, 6431.0, +15.0, +17.0
Long 2 YM 24279, 24279, +30, +30
Total YM +83
Total NQ +11.25
Total RTY +18.0
Last weeks action, though volatile, was nonetheless characterized with true signals. By that I mean, once a reversal action was in, the move stayed until resistance was hit in the opposite direction. Then you could either dump all units because even to the initial resistance was a big move, or you could partial out your position and risk the balance with a break-even stop loss. Today, on the way down, the action in the much desired NQ was stutter-step. That is, bounces off resistance at key Serial Sequent fractals went only far enough to give you false encouragement, then whip=lashed you into a stop-out in further trend extension. Was down my daily loss limit in NQ while up my daily goal in the RTY, so early going was just treading water. The key to getting back in after stop out is always the same. "Is the Trade Entry Technical Event Concept still intact?" (This model must include the Frame-of-Day criteria, as well as the Sequent fractal, of course). If yes, I re enter, if not, I wait until the next model asserts itself in further trend action. If the model is still intact, but price has extended the stretch, then consider the Martingale betting routine of re-entering with larger size than you got stopped out on.
Interestingly, Martingale works better in futures trading than on the gaming tables, where, for instance, a roulette wheel repeating the color red X times, still retains the same odds of 50/50, regardless of how big X actually is. There, it's just that it becomes unusual to extend X past some typical extension. But the stock futures market and a feature the roulette wheel does not have. It has ELASTICITY. That is, the players and their pursuit of entries and stop-outs put price extension into zones of exhaustion, and if the X on the roulette wheel could be affected by the number of players who bet against it as it continues to extend. On the table, of course, there is no such relationship between the number of players betting the likelihood of a change of color and the Pill's eventually land on the color wheel. But in the market, there IS such a relationship. Therefore, the Martingale scheme, which some say does increase your chances at Roulette and Black Jack, is truly meaningful in the markets.
