20180515
Short 2 RTY 1594.1, 1594.1, -1.4, -1.4
Short 3 RTY 1596.1, 1596.1, 1596.1, +1.4, +1.4, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 6875..5, 6875.5, +5.0, -5.5
Short 2 RTY 1597.6, 1598.2, +1.5, +1.2
Short 1 NQ 6880.2, -2.0
Short 3 NQ 6884.25, 6884.25, 6883.75, +6.0, +6.0, -0.0
Short 1 YM 24691, -0
Short 1 NQ 6884.75, -2.25
Short 1 NQ 6894.0, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 6897.5, 6897.5, 6897.75, -2.25, -2.25, -2.5
Short 4 NQ 6904.5, 6904.5, 6904.5, 6904.5, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0
Short 5 YM 24723, 24723, 24723, 24723, 24723, +30, +30, +30, +30, +30
Total YM +150
Total NQ -14.0
Total RTY +2.2
If Test-n-Reject is the most common model of price in the 1st Frame of the day, then the 2nd trend is more likely to be true--and of a surprise--than the first. Emotionally, however, the 2nd trend is always easier to fade than the first. ...and here's the subtlety, for the more experienced trader, MISSING the turn of the 1st trend of the day can trigger a need to take trades in the less highly probable 2nd trend simply because of an overwhelming need to participate in the action, and to revenge the market for having successfully turned already without you. Today I was guilty of this rookie mistake, and the surprising strength of the 2nd trend in the NQ stopped me out successively, erasing all earlier NQ profits. Thus the YM trade became an act of revenge itself, and it was pure luck I was not also stopped out of that one. Somehow, I escaped my own blunders today, but I cannot claim in pride in my behavior. Respect the 2nd Trend of the frame. If the market has successfully turned from the 1st Trend price extreme, it's probably not a pullback in the first trend at all, but a roaring 2nd trend. And until it is sufficiently spent within the measurements of its own parameters instead of the measurements against the 1st trend from which it has come, all early fades will suffer the consequences. "Second trends are where the surprises hide", my mentor had to remind me. ....and even today, I still make that mistake.
