Fri Aug 30 Trade Signal Summary

20190830
Long 1 NQ 7535.25, -2.25
Long 1 YM 26472, -7
Long 1 YM 26466, -1
Short 2 NQ 7740.0, 7739.0, +14.25, +5.0
Short 1 YM 26510, -7
Short 2 YM 26520, 26518, +10, +59
Total YM +54
Total NQ +17.0

Thur Aug 29 Trade Signal Summary

20190829
Short 2 NQ 7721.25, 7721.25, +2.0, +6.5
Short 2 RTY 1497.5, 1495.7, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 NQ 7721.75, 7721.75, -2.25, ,-2.25
Short 2 NQ 7723.5, 7723.5, +2.0, +10.75
Short 1 NQ 7703.0, -2.5
Short 2 RTY 1598.2, 1598.0, +1.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 7660.25, +19.0
Total NQ +35.75
Total RTY -0.0

Wed Aug 28 Trade Signal Summary

20190828
Short 2 RTY 1453.5, 1454.0, -0.8, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 7535.0, -2..25
Short 2 RTY 1456.1, 1456.1, -1.5, -1.5
Short 1 YM 25732, -7
Short 2 RTY 1458.1, 1458.1, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 NQ 7550.0, 7550, +2.0, -2.25
Short 2 RTY 1460.9, 1460.9, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 YM 25795, 25800, -2, +20
Short 2 RTY 1464.2, 1464.2, +3.0, +5.2
Short 1 NQ 7567.0, -2.25
Short 3 NQ 7570.0, 7570.0, 7570.0, +8.0, +9.0, +7.75
Short 1 YM 25850, -8
Short 1 RTY 1466.0, -0.1
Short 1 YM 25910, +20
Total YM +23
Total NQ +20.0
Total RTY +0.3

Tues Aug 27 Trade Signal Summary

20190827
Short 2 RTY 1486.0, 1485.5, +2.0, +1.0
Short 1 YM 25985, -7
Short 1 YM 25978, +23
Long 1 NQ 7594.25, -0.0
Long 1 RTY 1467.0, +0.1
Long 1 NQ 7590.0, -4.25
Long 2 NQ 7576.0, 7576.0, -0.25, -0.25
Long 1 RTY 1563.2, +2.0
Short 2 YM 25900, 25902, +7, +7
Short 1 NQ 7593.0, +10.0
Total YM +30
Total NQ +5.25
Total RTY +5.1

Mon Aug 26 Trade Signal Summary

20190826
Short 1 NQ 7552.0, +10.0
Long 1 RTY 1465.0, +1.5
Long 1 NQ 7526.5, +10.0
Total NQ +20.5
Total RTY +1.5

Fri Aug 23 Trade Signals and Journal

20190823
Long 1 YM 26134, -7
Short 1 ES 2908.0, -1.5
Short 1 RTY 1498.0, -1.5
Short 2 RTY 1503.9, 1503.8, +2.5, +2.4
Short 2 YM 26252, 26255, +20, +31
Short 1 NQ 7698.25, -1.25
Short 1 NQ 7704.0, -2.25
Short 1 NQ 7708.5, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 7717.5, -2.25, -2.25
Short 3 NQ 7723.0, 7723.0, 7723.0, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5
Short 3 YM 26300, 25300, 26300, +20, +30, +30
Short 1 RTY 1508.0, +3.7
Long 1 NQ 7600.0, -2.25
Long 1 RTY 1481.5, +4.6
Long 1 NQ 7542.0, -0.25
Total ES -1.5
Total YM +124
Total NQ -17.5
Total RTY +11.7

Many years ago, while I was a contractor making trade calls for a room of futures and stock traders, I heard the assertion, absurd though it was, that Alan Greenspan was timing his pronouncements and rate decisions with Elliott Wave patterns of the daily time frame. Of course, the person making this assertion was an Elliott Wave enthusiast, and following the pattern labels very precisely. He was not considering how absurd the notion was that Alan Greenspan would be doing the same. But his observation of the apparent coincidence of the timing had a merit he did not understand.

Today, at 10:am ET, Fed Chairman Powell gave a much anticipated and closely watched speech on U.S. economics and the Fed's short term schedule for rate adjustment. How could anything in technical analysis be of use during such an emotional injection into markets! Then, things really got heated. President Trump tweeted out a counter punch to China's tariff announcement, a counter punch in itself. How could a trader possibly position to anticipate such a thing? And yet, using a fractal algorithm I uncovered more than 10 years ago to replace the clunky and over-constraining Elliott Wave, called Serial Sequent, I was able to position a short in the RTY contract just minutes before his tweet came out. Was Pres Trump, like Alan Greenspan, using a fractal algorithm from the market place to time his bearish tweets on China? Absurd. No one can predict Donald Trump. That's part of both his charm and his tremendous success.

Alan Greenspan didn't use Elliot Wave. Markets simply overwhelm and swallow any emotional fuel injected into them. My position didn't predict Donald Trump's tweet, even though Serial Sequent put me in a short just ticks below the end of that rally, and the high of the day. The market was simply poised to retreat, regardless. And had I known the context of that tweet as it was coming out, I would have pulled any target I had on that short and captured a lot more of the ensuing 26 point RTY decline than the meager +3.7 points that I did... And likewise, using the same Serial Sequent algorithm, I managed to capture profits right in the midst of Fed Chairman Powell's speech, even though I had little clue what he was really saying. I simply waited til the pre-delivered version of his speech hit the wires and the internet so that it was theoretically out of the way, and traded the outcome of the fractal algorithm as it unfolded. This algorithm is not greater than the emotional context these events insert into price structure, it's that price structure has an underlying DNA to its structure, and regardless how much energy is being injected into the auction arena, price still carves out its thrusts and retreats according to this DNA code.

....and a good weekend to all...

Thur Aug 22 Trade Signals and Journal

20190822
Short 1 RTY 1514.2, -1.4
Short 2 NQ 7772.5, 772.0.0, +3, +14.75
Short 1 RTY 1517.7, +2.2
Short 1 RTY 1516.5, +0.2
Short 1 RTY 1517.5, +2.3
Long 1 NQ 7731.0, -2.25
Long 1 NQ 7725.0, -2.25
Long 2 NQ 7721.5, 7721.5, -2.25, -2.25
Long 2 NQ 7718.0, 7718.0, -1.25, -1.25
Long 2 RTY 1507.0, 1507.0, -1.5, -1.5
Long 2 NQ 7705.0, 7705.0, +5.0, -2.25
Long 2 YM 26165, 26167, -8, -8
Long 1 NQ 7660.25, +14.75
Long 1 RTY 1499.1, +4.0
Long 2 YM 26113, 26115, +20, -1
Total YM +3
Total NQ +23.75
Total RTY +4.3

"Second trends are where the surprises hide." ....is a mantra I preach in the training course again and again. But that didn't stop me stepping into trying to buy this first frame decline too early at several levels. ...and that in spite of being short near the 1st trend's highs in both the RT and the NQ.. In fact, it would be fair to day that I stepped into fading this 2nd trend with longs BECAUSE I had been been short near the highs. You might think that having shorted the market earlier would fill me with bear prejudice as the profits rolled in. But in fact, the profits were so so quick and so easy, it left a thirst for more trading and a challenge that might make it feel like I had actually the done the work of having to achieve it. In a way, it was self destructive, but perhaps more fairly, it was simply looking to recapture the accolades of being in the winning mode. You see, giving up your position gives up the accolade of your position. You can no long wave your position around when you have traded it in for profits. Profits are the opposite of glory. But it is glory that drives the heart of man, not profits.. and so you get drawn back into trades that are by nature far more risky in efforts to get the glory back, there here no obviously pullback signals to get in-trend shorts positioned.

True Self is a book I wrote about this mental phenomenon, and a number of others that typically inflict traders. You can check it out on Amazon.com. ...and a good day remaining to all..

Wed Aug 21 Trade Signal Summary

20190821
Short 1 NQ 7744.0, -2.5
Short 1 NQ 7746.0, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 7748.25, -2.25, -2.25
Short 3 NQ 7758.75, 7758.75, 7758.75, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25
Short 3 NQ 7763.0, 7763.0, 7763.0, +3.0, +7.0, +7.0
Short 2 RTY 1512.8, 1512.8, -0.2, -0.2
Short 2 RTY 1513.0, 1512.8, +1.7, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 7752.0, 7752.0, -1.25, -1.25
Long 3 NQ 7749.0, 7749.0, 7750.0, -2.25, -2.25, -1.25
Long 3 NQ 7748.0, 7748.0, 7748.0, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25
Long 2 YM 26175, 26175, +23, +23
Total YM +46
Total NQ -11.00
Total RTY +3.3

Tues Aug 20 Trade Signal Summary

20190820
Long 2 RTY 1501.0, 1501.0, +0.8, +2.0
Long 1 YM 26040, -7
Long 1 RTY 1500.5, +2.0
Long 1 YM 25034, -7
Short 1 NQ 7701.0, -0.5
Short 1 RTY 1505.6, +0.2
Short 1 NQ 7713.5, +10.0
Total YM -14
Total NQ +9.5
Total RTY +5.0

Mon Aug 19 Trade Signals & Journal

20190819
Short 1 RTY 1512.5, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 7723.5, -2.25
Long 1 NQ 7720.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 7715.25, 7715.25, +5.0, -0.25
Short 1 NQ 7721.75, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 7710.0, -2.25
Long 1 NQ 7701.75, -0.25
Long 1 NQ 7696.0, +5.0
Long 1 RTY 1507.0, +2.0
Short 2 YM 26122, 26124, -7, -7
Short 2 NQ 7717.0, 7716.5, -2.0, -2.25
Short 3 NQ 7719.5, 7719.5, 7719.5, +2.0, +5.0, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 7722.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 7731.5, 7731.5, -2.25, -2.25
Short 1 RTY 1514.0, -0.4
Short 1 YM 26175, -0
Short 2 RTY 1514.3, 1514.3, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 YM 26187. 26187, +13, +50
Short 2 NQ 7742.0, 7741.75, -2.0, -2.0
Total YM +49
Total NQ +2.25
Total RTY +2.6

Two-sided Test and Reject can be a challenging day model to trade. Today, with earliest action accomplishing some of the aspects of WorkDone--as price took out the Pennant Apex and PivotLedge Break-away resistance of the earlier week--the initial components were all flashing for Shorts. Unfortunately, RTY was the only index with a completed signal. Shortly thereafter, buy signals began to show up, but against those earlier resistance numbers, long signals did not inspire size more than minimal positions... an error that was mostly in my head... and consequently, the best opportunities of the morning were allowed only meager profits. This is what comes of trend prejudice taking hold... and apparently I was not alone, for pricing then proceeded to climb the wall of successively repeated resistance areas all seemingly ripe for shorting... except that those shorts were all being taken against the true 2nd trend.... where surprises love to hide. I'd like to at least be able to say from these efforts in error that the morning left me with a 'lesson learned' reaction. But the truth is, it was more like 'bad trading behavior repeated as I kept at repeated short selling into appraised price extremes like a sailor hypnotized by the Song of Sirens, leaving a bloody set of stop-outs dashed against the rocks.. In review of such an outcome, I go back to the early lows-of-the-frame, where I failed to identified a fresh set of WorkDone signals, and consider to have taken bigger size positions from those levels where a frame profit goal could have been reached.

Fri Aug 15 Trade Signal Summary

20190816
Long 1 NQ 7570.25, +5.5
Short 4 RTY 1479.1, 1479.1, 1479.1 1479.3, +1.5, +0.8 , -1.4, -1.4
Short 2 RTY 1480.8, 1481.0, +1.0, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 7607.0 +5.0
Short 1 NQ 7619.0, -2.5
Short 2 NQ 7626.0, 7626.0, -2.25, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 7627.5, 2627.5, -2.25, -2.25
Short 3 NQ 7631.0, 7631.0, 7631.0, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 RTY 1486.1, 1486.1, -0.0, -0.0
Short 2 RTY 1488.8, 1488.8, +1.6, -0.2
Long 1 NQ 7615.75, -2.0
Short 2 RTY 1490.6, 1490.4, -1.4, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 7605.0, -1.25
Long 1 NQ 7599.0, -2.0
Short 2 RTY 1592.5, 1592.3, -0.1, -0.3
Total NQ -7.75
Total RTY +3.1

Thur Aug 15 Trade Signal Summary

20190815
Long 1 YM 25574, -7
Long 1 YM 25456, -7
Long 2 YM 25429, 25429, +30, +74
Long 1 RTY 1461.0, +4.0
Total YM +90
Total RTY +4.0

Wed Aug 14 Trade Signal Summary

20190814
Long 1 NQ 7612.5, -2.25
Long 2 RTY 1478.2, 1478.3, +4.0, +4.0
Short 2 NQ 7626.0, 7675.5, +13.0, +4.0
Total NQ +14.75
Total RTY +8.0

Tues Aug 13 Trade Signals and Journal

20190813
Short 1 RTY 1502.7, -1.5
Short 2 RTY 1506.0, 1506.0, -1.5, -1.5
Short 3 RTY 1510.4, 1510.4, 1510.4, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5
Short 4 RTY 1513.5, 1513.5, 1513.5, 1315.5, +4.0, +4.0, +4.0, +4.0
Short 1 RTY 1518.0, -1.5
Short 2 RTY 1520.7, 1520.7, +2.0, +2.5
Short 1 RTY 1518.5, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 7774.5, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 7788.0, 7788.0, +6.0, +12.25
Short 2 RTY 1525.1, 1525.5, +1.0, +3.0
Total NQ +16.25
Total RTY +16.0

Serial Sequent methodology is 'anti-fragile'. That means volatility actually helps it expose the underlying DNA of fractals of thrust and pullback. ...but handling the size of those fractals not always an easy thing. I was down
nearly to my loss limit in early RTY trades before getting it all back in a single swing. A bit later sell signals appeared in the come-lately highs in the NQ and the RTY, and those put me well into daily goal territory. ....but this action not for the faint of heart. But to top off the list of observations today, the NQ started the day with a Matched Lows buy signal right at the ORB... which I called for the room, but failed to catch myself. And while I was solo-focused on trying to get that opening ORB trade, the RTY and ES both triggered 3 Bar ORB trades themselves, of which I also got neither... ...that was 200 point excursion in the NQ off a Matched Lows ORB opening buy signal..... and my only profits in the NQ came by shorting the Sequent tops... sometimes you just make it harder on yourself than necessary... (See the book Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades, online at Amazon, for an explanation of these ORB pattern trades.)

Mon Aug 12 Trade Signal Summary

20190812
Short 1 NQ 7607.0, +17.0
Short 1 RTY 1500.4, -0.3
Short 1 NQ 7630.0, +8.0
Total NQ +25.0
Total RTY -0.3

Fri Aug 9 Trade Signal Summary

20190809
Short 12 RTY 1525.8, -0.6
Short 1 RTY 1527.6, +3.8
Long 2 RTY 1522.0, 1522.0, -0.4, -0.4
Long 1 NQ 7690.0, +5.0
Long 1 YM 26289, -7
Long 2 YM 26250, 26250, +22, -1
Long 2 RTY 1519.0, 1519.0, +1.5, +3.3
Long 2 NQ 7665.0, 7665.5, +8.0, +5.5
Long 1 NQ 7649.0, +10.0
Long 1 RTY 1517.4, +4.0
Total YM +14
Total NQ +28.5
Total RTY +11.8

Thur Aug 8 Trade Signals and Journal

20190808
Long 1 YM 26095, -7
Short 1 NQ 7604.0, +10.0
Long 1 YM 26027, -7
Short 2 NQ 7626.5, 7626.5, +2.0, +4.5
Short 1 NQ 7638.0, -2.5
Short 2 NQ 7643.0, 7643.0, +2.0, -2.25
Short 1 RTY 1519.3, -1.5
Short 2 NQ 7644.0, 7644.0, -2.25, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 7646.25, 7646.25, +2.0, -0.0
Short 2 RTY 1521.5, 1521.5, -0.4, -0.4
Short 2 NQ 7651.5, 7651.5, +3.75, +3.0
Short 2 RTY 1522.8, 1522.8, -0.2, -0.2
Short 1 NQ 7654.0, +8.0
Short 1 RTY 1524.2, -0.3
Short 1 RTY 1525.5, +1.0
Total YM -14
Total NQ +26.0
Total RTY -2.0

Volatility can be a good thing for traders. Without some, you languish. And Serial Sequent is especially suited for volatility, as it is 'anti-fragile'. The more the volatility, the clearer the underlying DNA structure is exposed. But volatility doesn't always come in the form of swings. Sometimes it is nearly a straight, vertical action. And if you don't get the early signals to participate, you can get left at the station with un-punched ticket in hand.
However, there was not much excuse for me today, as the YM gave a clear Test-n-Reject opportunity, on which I entered a bit too early. And while I was wiping the cold water from that splash off my face with a towel, the train abruptly left the station.... without me. Pay close attention to your early opportunities. Sometimes they're the only ones you get...

Wed Aug 7 Trade Signal Summary

20190807
Short 1 YM 25612, +50
Long 2 YM 25400, 25400, +20, +40
Total YM 110

Sometimes trading looks easy. But it is seldom so. One forgets all the kinds of mistakes one use to make and assumes the hard won habits weren't part of the cost of today's trades. Today, the volatility was so great, that the greatest error to trading was just not hanging on. A 50 point move in the YM is usually a decent gain from an initial signaled entry near the ORB. Today, that move earned a 200 point excursion. And the trick for buying the YM at the LOD ..? ....the combination of an improved climax-momentum indicator for the YM, Serial Substitute Sequent Rule, and an old trick by W.D. Gann trick called the Decennial, but applied to numbers instead of time, and generously shared with me from Brendan Moynihan, who spent years putting it to practice in the grain markets each day, way back when. Thank you Brendan !!.

Tues Aug 6 Trade Signal Summary

20190806
Short 1 ES 2869,75, -1.25
Long 1 NQ 7501.75, -2.25
Long 2 NQ 7488.25, 7488.25, +3.0, +12.0
Long 2 YM 25800, 25800, +20, +30
Short 1 RTY 1498.8, +4.0
Long 1 NQ 7470.0, +5.0
Total ES -1.25
Total YM +50
Total NQ 17.75
Total RTY +4.0

Mon Aug 5 Trade Signals & Journal

20190805
Long 2 YM 25955, 25955, -9, -9
Long 2 ES 2875.75, 2875.75, +2.0, -0.5
Long 1 RTY, 1501.0, -1.4
Long 1 RTY 1598.01, -1.4
Long 2 RTY 1597.0, 1597.0, +3.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 7585.0, +15.5
Long 1 NQ 7585.0, -1.5
Long 1 NQ 7584.0, +10.0
PM trades:
Long 2 NQ 7365.25, 7365.25, +6.5, +10.0
Long 1 NQ 7365.5, -2.25
Long 2 RTY 1471.0, 1471.0, +3.0, +5.6
Long 2 YM 25489, 25489, +26, +91
Total ES +1.5
Total YM +99
Total NQ +40.5
Total RTY +10.8
I seldom come back now for the 2nd and 3rd Frames of the Day. The 1st Frame is so dynamic and volatile, it tends to expose its swing signals with the Sequent algorithm with great regularity. Why sit all day in front of the screen when there is so much opportunity in the early going? It didn't use to be this way. In times past, almost all of my trades would come from the Midday and Last Hour frames, as I would stalk the larger patterns that would often come to fruition around the 2:30 Transition Time. But today's volatility was just too much to resist. Returning just after the Transition Time, the market had still still not rallied hard enough to take out the 200 MA, for a Last Chance Texaco, so that big bounce was likely. But equipped with the Sequent tool, I might be able to ride along for the trip back up, rather than waiting it out, and fishing for that one last buying spike that often turns into Last Hour new lows. And combined with the TTI, True Trend Momentum Indicator, Serial Sequent was screaming that the selling structure had reached a critical turning point. ...thus my last trades were long, against the prevailing selling.

Fri Aug 2 Trade Signal Summary

20190802
Short 1 NQ 7743.5, -2.25
Short 1 NQ 7745.0, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 7764.0, 7764.0, +10, +20
Total NQ +25.5

Thur Aug 1 Trade Signal Summary

20190801
Short 3 YM 26820, 26920, +10, +10, -12
Short 2 NQ 7934.0, 7934.0, +4.0, +12.0
Short 1 NQ 7935.0, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 7938.0, -1.0
Short 1 NQ 7956.5, -2.50
Short 1 YM 26996, -6
Short 2 YM 27015, 27012, +10, -9
Short 2 RTY 1588.4, 1588.4, -0.4, -0.4
Short 2 NQ 7974.0, 7973.5, +5.0, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 7976.0, 7876.0, -2.25, -2.25
Short 2 NQ 7977.0, 7976.5, -2.25, -2.25
Short 3 NQ 7978.0, 7978.0, 7977.5, +2.0, +5.0, -1.5
Short 2 NQ 7990.0, 7988.75, +3.0, -2.75
Short 2 YM 27090, 27090, -2, -2
Short 1 NQ 7996.25, -1.0
Short 1 NQ 7996.0, -2.0
Short 1 YM 27123, +45
Short 1 RTY 1591.8, +3.4
Total YM +44
Total NQ +8.25
Total RTY +2.6