Thurs Jun 30 Trade Signal Summary

20220630

Short 3 MNQ 11511.75, 11511.75, 11511.75,  +51.25, +51.25, +51.25, 

Long 3 MNQ 11442.0, 11442.0, 11442.0,  -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, 

2nd Frame Trades: 

Short 3 MNQ 11588.5, 11588.5, 11588.5, +38.75, +38.75, +38.75, 

Short 3 MNQ 11673.25, 11673.25, 11673.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 11678.75, 11678.75, 11678.75, +43.5, +43.5, +43.5, 

Long 3 MNQ 11576.75, 11576.75, 11576.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Long 3 MNQ 11571.5, 11571.5, 11571.5, +30.0, +30.0, +30.0,

Total MNQ +453.75

Breakout patterns are an 'old school' approach to trading.  No sophisticated algorithms necessary.   Today, the Nasdaq presented such a pattern within the first few minutes of its plunge.   You can read about pattern breakout trading in the book Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades, from online book vendors. 

 

All the 2nd Frame afternoon trades were signaled by the Fractal Algorithm Serial Sequent Indicator in combination with the Pivot Exhaustion Grid.  The Exhaustion Grid is discussed in detail in the book Pivots, Patterns...   Of late, the accuracy of Serial Sequent in the 2nd and Last Hour Frames has been consistent, and far easier to handle than with the volatility of the 1st Frame.   Today's early breakout trade put me into profits in the early going, unlike what has become more typical these last months, where 1st Frame volatility has made it almost impossible for positions to survive acceptable stop-loss limits. 

Wed Jun 29 2022 Trade Signal Summary

20220629

Long 3 MES 3805.0, 3805.0, 3805.0, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 11651.25, 11651.25, 11651.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 11690.0, 11690.0, 11690.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 11700.5, 11700.5, 11700.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 9 MNQ 11710.0, 11710.0, 11710.0, 11708.75, 11708.75, 11708.75, 11708.5, 11708.5, 11708.5,  +26.25, +26.25, +26.25, +13.0, +13.0, +13.0, +12.75, +12.75, +12.75, 

Short 3 MNQ 11741.25, 11741.25, 11741.25, +25.0, +25.0, +25.0, 

 

Total MES -6.75

Total MNQ  +195.75

Tues May 28 Trade Signal Summary

20220628 

 

Long 3 MNQ 12101.25, 12101.25, 12101.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Long 3 MNQ 12010.5, 12010.5, 12010.5, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, 

Long 3 MYM 31522, 31522, 31522, -11, -11, -11

Long 3 MYM 31509, 31509, 31509, -4, -4, ,-4

Long 3 MNQ 11949.75, 11949.75, 11949.75,  -1.75,  -1.75,  -1.75, 

Long 3 MNQ 11937.5, 11937.5, 11937.5, +28.75, +28.75, +28.75, 

Long 3 MNQ 11933.25, 11933.25, 11933.25,  -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Long 3 MNQ 11873.5, 11873.5, 11873.5,  -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

PM Trades: 

Short 3 MNQ 11833.75, 11833.75, 11833.75,  +22.5, +22.5, +22.5, 

 

Total MYM -45

Total MNQ +95.25

Mon Jun 27 Trade Signals and Journal

 20220627

 

Long 3 MNQ 12069.75, 13069.75, 13069.75,  -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Long 3 MNQ 12050.0, 12050.0, 12050.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Long 3 MNQ 12037.25, 12037.25, 12037.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Long 3 MES 3895.75, 3895.75, 3895.75,  +7.25, +7.25, +7.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 12078.75, 12078.75, 12078.75,  -0.75, -0.75, -0.75,

Short 3 MNQ 12104.75, 12104.75, 12104.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 12117.5, 12117.5, 12117.5, +27.0, +27.0, +27.0, 

PM Trades: 

Long 6 MNQ 12997.50, 12997.50, 12997.50, 12997.50, 12997.50, 12997.50,  +18.25, +18.25, +18.25, +41.50, +41.50, +41.50, 

 

Total MES +21.75

Total MNQ +179.25

 

Most traders suffer from this behavior; taking profits too soon on a good position after being stopped out successively from poor positions.   In other words, the market has taught you to settle for less than the Entry Concept might have otherwise called for.   In such cases, just getting back to even or near even is a big relief.   I've know very few in my long lifetime as a trader who could do otherwise after a series of losses, and hold each fresh position on its own appraised merits with blinders to the day's P&L.   Today was no exception to this for me.  

Fri Jun 24 Trade Signal Summary

20220324

 

Short 3 MNQ  11954.75, 11954.75, 11954.75, -7.25, -7.25, -7.25, 

Short 6 MNQ  11963.25, 11963.25, 11963.25, 11962.25, 11962.25, 11962.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ  11977.75, 11977.75, 11977.75, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, 

Long 3 MNQ 12025.5,  12025.5, 12025.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Long 3 MNQ 12017.75, 12017.75, 12017.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

PM Trades:

Long 3 MES  3884.50, 3884.50, 3884.50, +6.0, +6.0, +6.0, 

Short 3 MNQ  12040.75, 12040.75, 12040.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, 

Short 3 MNQ  12054.5, 12054.5, 12054.5,-0.5, -0.5, -0.5, 

Short 3 MES 3897.25, 3897.25, 3897.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25,

Short 6 MNQ 12055.0, 12055.0, 12055.0, 12055.0, 12055.0, 12055.0, +12.5, +12.5, +12.5, 

+15.0, +15.0, +15.0, 

Short 6 MNQ 12056.25, 12056.25,12056.25, 12055.0, 12055.0, 12055.0,  +11.0, +11.0, +11.0,  +15.25, +15.25, +15.25,

 

Total MES +17.25

Total MNQ +61.5

Mon Jun 13 2022 Extended Holiday til ....... Thurs Jun 23

Fri Jun 10 2022 Trade Signals and Journal

20220610

 

Long 3 MNQ  11993.5, 11993.5, 11993.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Long 3 MNQ 11985.75, 11985.75, 11985.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Long 3 MNQ 11932.25, 11932.25, 11932.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Long 3 MNQ 11919.0, 11919.0, 11919.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Long 3 MNQ 11904.5,  11904.5, 11904.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Long 3 MNQ 11899.0, 11899.0, 11899.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0

Long 3 MNQ 11897.25, 11897.25, 11897.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 11936.75, 11936.75, 11936.75, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 

Short 6 MNQ 11939.25,  11939.25, 11939.25, 11932.75, 11932.75, 11932.75, +54.25, +54.25, +54.25, +42.75, +42.75, +42.75,

 Short 6 MES 3922.75, 3922.75, 3922.75, 3922.75, 3922.75, 3922.75,  +11.25, +11.25, +11.25, +11.25, +11.25, +11.25, 

PM Trades

Short 6 MNQ 11970.5, 11970.5, 11970.5, 11972.5, 11972.5, 11972.5, 

+55.25, +55.25, +55.25, +72.0, +72.0, +72.0,

 

 

Total MES +65.5

Total MNQ +565.5

 

There have been some remarkable opportunities for trading in the index futures markets of late, but equal in extreme is the difficulty in trade management.   However, these Last Chance Texaco short entries in the PM action have actually been pretty easy, with minimum stop-outs, today's and yesterday's as good examples. 

 

I'll be on vacation for a week or more in the coming days.  In the meantime, I wish for all a time of family, tranquility and appreciation for this great land. 

Thur Jun 9 2022 Trade Signal Summary

20220609

 

Short 3 MNQ 12602.25, 12602.25, 12602.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,

Short 3 MNQ 12612.75, 12612.75, 12612.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 12621.0, 12621.0, 12621.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 12634.5, 12634.5, 12634.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MES 4115.5, 4115.5, 4115.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5,

Short 3 MNQ 12649.75, 12649.75, 12649.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,

Short 3 MNQ 12643.75, 12643.75, 12643.75, +33.25, +33.25, +33.25, 

Long 3 MNQ 12600.25, 12600.25, 12600.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

PM Trades:

Short 6 MNQ  12587.5, 12587.5, 12587.5, 12584.75, 12584.75, 12584.75, +34.75, +34.75, +34.75, +22.25, +22.25, +22.25, 

Short 3 MNQ  12599.25, 12599.25, 12599.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 6 MNQ 12601.5, 12601.5, 12601.5, 12603.0, 12603.0, 12603.0, +43.75, +43.75, +43.75, +71.25, +71.25, +71.25, 

 

Total MES -7.5

Total MNQ +505.5

 

Trading 'around the Curves' provides some special opportunities in the MidDay or Last Hour Frames of the day.  That's when the EMA's tend to attract price into corrective mode like a magnet.  But overcoming the basic trend of the MA's uses up a lot of buying power, especially on these brutal bear market days.   

 

And although the precise timing of these later PM entries did require the fine tuning the favored fractal algorithm, Serial Sequent, a basic understanding of the rules regarding this 'trading the curves' could have gotten you into a short position for new intraday bear trend extremes.    ....as usual, I got out too soon, but am not too ashamed of the longer hold for some 70+ points of that excursion.   

 

Read about the curves and the 'Last Chance Texaco' in the book Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades, available from online dealers.

Wed Jun 8 Trade Signal Summary

20220608

 

Short 3 MNQ  12699.75, 12699.75, 12699.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25 

Short 3 MNQ 12715.25, 12715.25, 12715.25, +35.25, +35.25, +35.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 12776.0,  12776.0, 12776.0,  +40.5, +40.5, +40.5, 

Long 3 MES 4135.75, 4135.75, 4135.75,  +11.25, +11.25, +11.25, 

 

Total MES +33.75

Total MNQ +211.5

Tues Jun 7 2022 Trade Signal Summary

20220607

 

Short 3 MNQ  12562.25, 12562.25, 12562.25,  -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 12573.5, 12573.5, 12573.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 12567.75, 12567.75, 12567.75,  +47.75, +47.75, +47.75, 

Short 3 MNQ 12614.5, 12614.5, 12614.5,  -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 12679.25, 12679.25, 12679.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Long 3 MNQ 12668.0, 12668.0, 12668.0,  -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Long 3 MNQ 12616.25, 12616.25, 12616.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,

PM Trades: 

Short 6 MNQ  12700.0, 12700.0, 12700.0, 12701.25, 12701.25, 12701.25, +25.0, +25.0, +25.0, +26.0, +26.0, +26.0, 

Short 3 M2K 1910.7, 1910.7, 1910.7,  +3.7,  +3.7, +3.7,

Short 3 MYM 33095, 33095, 33095,+44, +44, +44

Total MYM +132

Total M2K +11.1

Total MNQ +201.75

Mon Jun 6 2022 Trade Signals and Journal

20220606

Short 3 MNQ 12728.25, 12728.25, 12728.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,

Short 3 MNQ 12741.0, 12741.0, 12741.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 12759.5, 12759.5, 12759.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 12779.0, 12779.0, 12779.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 12792.75, 12792.75, 12792.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 12808.5, 12808.5, 12808.5,+55.25, +55.25, +55.25, 

Short 3 MNQ  12763.5, 12763.5, 12763.5, +55.25, +55.25, +55.25, 

 

Total MNQ +252.75

 

A Pre-breakout Pause Pattern is old school, and can work with both Trend Line Analysis as well as the Serial Sequent Fractal Algorithm.    The set up occurs in the lower time frame, after or within a pattern of consolidation.  It's final 'tell' is usually a pair or three reversal bars that are subsequently broken as the proverbial 'last straw'.   See below...

I now have as default to my OCO targets in MNQ, a 55.25 point target.   It's frustrating when a trades comes close to this, reverses, and then takes away my paper profits not having been filled.   But even more stirring, are occasions when the +55 points is only a fraction of the total ensuing excursion..     

You can read about the Pre-Break Pause in the book Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades online, or on the website.

Fri Jun 3 2022 Trade Signal Summary

20220603

 

Short 3 MNQ 12682.5, 12682.5, 12682.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 12690.0, 12690.0, 12690.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 12693.75, 12693.75,12693.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 12719.5, 12719.5, 12719.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 12622.0, 12622.0, 12622.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 3 MNQ 12609.75, 12609.75, 12609.75, +19.75, +19.75, +19.75, 

 

Total MNQ -19.5

Thur Jun 2 2022 Trade Signal Summary

20220602

 

Short 3 MNQ 12577.0, 12577.0, 12577.0, +39.25, +39.25, +39.25,

PM Trades:

Short 3 MNQ 12778.25, 12778.25, 12778.25,  -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,

Short 6 MNQ 12794.5, 12794.5, 12794.5, 12792.0, 12792.0, 12792.0, +15.5, +15.5, +15.5,  +25.25, +25.25, +25.25, 

 

Total MNQ +224.25

Wed Jun 1 2022

20220501

 

Short 3 M2K 1878.9, 1878.9, 1878.9, +6.2, +6.2, +6.2

Long 3 MNQ 12760.0, 12760.0, 12760.0, +25.0, +25.0, +25.0, 

Long 3 MNQ 12730.75, 12730.75, 12730.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25

Long 3 MNQ 12701.5, 12701.5, 12701.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25

Long 3 MNQ 12692.75,  12692.75, 12692.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25

Long 3 MNQ 12636.5, 12636.5, 12636.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25

Long 3 MNQ 12604.25, 12604.25, 12604.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25

Long 3 MNQ 12463.5, 12463.5, 12463.5,  +51.25, +51.25, +51.25, 

Long 6 MES 4074.25, 4074.25, 4074.25, 4073.5, 4073.5, 4073.5,  +10.0, +10.0, +10.0, +7.25, +7.25, +7.25, 

PM Trades: 

Short 3 MNQ 12552.5, 12552.5, 12552.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, 

Short 3 MES 4101.25, 4101.25, 4101.25,  -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, 

Short 6 MNQ  12554.5, 12554.5, 12554.5, 12555.0, 12555.0, 12555.0, +20.25, +20.25, +20.25, +30.0, +30.0, +30.0, 

Short 3 MES 4104.25, 4104.25, 4104.25,  +7.0, +7.0, +7.0,

 

Total MES  +17.25

Total MNQ +299.25

Total M2K +18.6

 

Positions continue to be very difficult to take without repeated stop-outs.   And giving back early profits comes easily in such wide spanning reaction waves.   Hang onto your hat, it's a rodeo.    And if you find the early going to be as difficult to trade as I have, try waiting for the PM action, where returns to the 200 MA (what we call the Last Chance Texaco), continue to offer more acceptable risks and very decent returns.   

 

Of some note, I was wrong about the greater trend at all three major junctions today, but still managed one of my best days of late.   First, having been short the M2K nearly at the top of the early action, I settled for some 1/4 of the extent of the eventual bear excursion.  Secondly, I entered long into the steep decline at what I thought were valid exhaustion zones, only to get blown out quickly.   And my eventually profitable longs came only a junctures of short term bounces.   I could NOT identify the eventual low.   

 

And finally, I took shorts in the PM action at the Last Chance Texaco zones.   Here, I also took modest profits on short where I could have been reversing back into longs for later PM bull explosions, which I missed completely, having climbed back into decent profit territory for the day, and having little if any clue that such an explosion was at hand.

 

Trading is not about being right.   Trading is about positioning around Entry Model opportunities, and then managing the trades. Have a Trade Plan.  Incorporate well tested Entry Models, Target Exit Strategies, and Behavioral Stop-Loss triggers.  This is how one manages the darkness and obscurity of the unpredictable.