Fri Oct 26 Trades & Journal
20121026
Long 1 YM 13041, -0
Long 1 TF 814.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 813.3, 813.0, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 810.7, 810.7, +0.8, +2.0
Long 2 TF 811.5, 811.5, +0.5, -0.6
Long 1 TF 810.7, -0.3
Long 1 TF 810.6, -0.4
Long 2 NQ 2653.75, 2654.0, 2653.5, -1.0, -2.0, -1.0
Long 2 NQ 2653.5, 2652.0, -0, -1.0
Long 2 NQ 2640.5, 2640.5, -1.0, -1.0
Total YM -0
Total NQ -7.0
Total TF +1.3
Weekly Trade Summary 2012126-20121022
Total ES +3.25
Total YM +15
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +3.8
It seems the real value of journal entries blossom only when the journal is reviewed.... and preferably BEFORE a day's trading, not just afterwards. Otherwise, journal entries, designed to modify future behavior, can be forgotten as quickly as bad trades. But journal lessons are not to be forgotten. They are to be ingrained. Today, I passed on two inflection breakout entries because I let myself get spooked by the action. The action did not prevent those inflection breakouts from achieving very nice potential profits. Profits I needed to stay on track towards my daily goal. Instead, the day was a wash, and with similar errors earlier in the week, the week as a whole was below weekly goals. Review your critiques. Your critiques are created to understand your weaknesses and mistakes executing your plan. Your mistakes tend to be habitual. Bad habits cannot be broken nor better ones established without a constant review of your behavior. Reread your journal BEFORE the trading day starts. Make your mental resolutions to do better at these critical plan junctures. Then execute your trading according to your plan, and eventually your behavior will change accordingly.
Long 1 YM 13041, -0
Long 1 TF 814.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 813.3, 813.0, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 810.7, 810.7, +0.8, +2.0
Long 2 TF 811.5, 811.5, +0.5, -0.6
Long 1 TF 810.7, -0.3
Long 1 TF 810.6, -0.4
Long 2 NQ 2653.75, 2654.0, 2653.5, -1.0, -2.0, -1.0
Long 2 NQ 2653.5, 2652.0, -0, -1.0
Long 2 NQ 2640.5, 2640.5, -1.0, -1.0
Total YM -0
Total NQ -7.0
Total TF +1.3
Weekly Trade Summary 2012126-20121022
Total ES +3.25
Total YM +15
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +3.8
It seems the real value of journal entries blossom only when the journal is reviewed.... and preferably BEFORE a day's trading, not just afterwards. Otherwise, journal entries, designed to modify future behavior, can be forgotten as quickly as bad trades. But journal lessons are not to be forgotten. They are to be ingrained. Today, I passed on two inflection breakout entries because I let myself get spooked by the action. The action did not prevent those inflection breakouts from achieving very nice potential profits. Profits I needed to stay on track towards my daily goal. Instead, the day was a wash, and with similar errors earlier in the week, the week as a whole was below weekly goals. Review your critiques. Your critiques are created to understand your weaknesses and mistakes executing your plan. Your mistakes tend to be habitual. Bad habits cannot be broken nor better ones established without a constant review of your behavior. Reread your journal BEFORE the trading day starts. Make your mental resolutions to do better at these critical plan junctures. Then execute your trading according to your plan, and eventually your behavior will change accordingly.
Thurs Oct 25 Trades and Journal
20121025
Long 1 TF 818.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 817.5, 817.5, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 TF 815.8, +0.5
Long 1 TF 816.2, -0.5
Long 1 ES 1412.25, -0.25
Long 2 NQ 2650.25, 2650.25, -1.0, -1.0
Long 2 NQ 2657.25, 2657.25, +2.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 813.3, -0.0
Long 2 TF 812.9, 812.9, +0.5, +0.5
Long 2 TF 812.2, 812.3, -0.1, +0.5
Long 2 TF 811.5, 811.2, -0.6, -0.3
Long 2 TF 810.4, 810.5, -0.2, -0.3
Long 2 TF 809.9, 810.1, +2.1, +0.5
Total ES -0.25
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +3.6
Yesterday's experiences as the journal critiqued seemed designed precisely to be adhered to today. The reversal in the TF contract was indeed challenging, but a final valid buy signal did appear, putting me back into the plus column and into my daily profit goal. Stick to the plan. Trade what you have in front of you. Put unsuccessful trades behind you quickly when-if (and only if) valid signals reappear.
Long 1 TF 818.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 817.5, 817.5, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 TF 815.8, +0.5
Long 1 TF 816.2, -0.5
Long 1 ES 1412.25, -0.25
Long 2 NQ 2650.25, 2650.25, -1.0, -1.0
Long 2 NQ 2657.25, 2657.25, +2.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 813.3, -0.0
Long 2 TF 812.9, 812.9, +0.5, +0.5
Long 2 TF 812.2, 812.3, -0.1, +0.5
Long 2 TF 811.5, 811.2, -0.6, -0.3
Long 2 TF 810.4, 810.5, -0.2, -0.3
Long 2 TF 809.9, 810.1, +2.1, +0.5
Total ES -0.25
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +3.6
Yesterday's experiences as the journal critiqued seemed designed precisely to be adhered to today. The reversal in the TF contract was indeed challenging, but a final valid buy signal did appear, putting me back into the plus column and into my daily profit goal. Stick to the plan. Trade what you have in front of you. Put unsuccessful trades behind you quickly when-if (and only if) valid signals reappear.
Wed Oct 24 Trades & Journal
20121024
Long 1 YM 13054, +15
Long 2 ES 1410.75, 1410.25, +1.5, +1.5
Long 1 TF 812.3, -0.5
Long 2 TF 812.0, 812.2, -0.3, -0.5
Long 1 ES 1409.0, -1.0
Long 2 ES 1408.5, 1508.5, +1.5, -0.0
Long 2 TF 812.2, 812.3, -0.2, -0.3
Long 1 TF 812.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 812.1, 812.1, -0.5, -0.5
Total YM +15
Total ES +3.5
Total TF -3.3
Persistence is often a key element to trading. It comes into play as the ability to overcome a loss quickly enough to take the next valid signal when it appears. But when it reappears quickly, its a battle between your recovery time and your determination to take the signals as they occur. My early TF losses were on the border line that separates my trading from my daily loss limits. I chose to ignore one final, valid TF buy signal that would have positioned a complete recovery to earlier losses for the sake of playing it safe. Stick to your plan. You should have a dollar loss limit for each day about the size of your daily profit goal. If valid signals appear before that loss limit or your trading time limit as been reached, then a valid trade signal should be executed. Stick to your plan.
Long 1 YM 13054, +15
Long 2 ES 1410.75, 1410.25, +1.5, +1.5
Long 1 TF 812.3, -0.5
Long 2 TF 812.0, 812.2, -0.3, -0.5
Long 1 ES 1409.0, -1.0
Long 2 ES 1408.5, 1508.5, +1.5, -0.0
Long 2 TF 812.2, 812.3, -0.2, -0.3
Long 1 TF 812.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 812.1, 812.1, -0.5, -0.5
Total YM +15
Total ES +3.5
Total TF -3.3
Persistence is often a key element to trading. It comes into play as the ability to overcome a loss quickly enough to take the next valid signal when it appears. But when it reappears quickly, its a battle between your recovery time and your determination to take the signals as they occur. My early TF losses were on the border line that separates my trading from my daily loss limits. I chose to ignore one final, valid TF buy signal that would have positioned a complete recovery to earlier losses for the sake of playing it safe. Stick to your plan. You should have a dollar loss limit for each day about the size of your daily profit goal. If valid signals appear before that loss limit or your trading time limit as been reached, then a valid trade signal should be executed. Stick to your plan.
Tues Oct 23 Trade Summary
20121023
Long 2 TF 807.1, 807.3, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 804.7, -0.3
Long 1 TF 804.2, +0.8
Total TF +2.0
Long 2 TF 807.1, 807.3, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 804.7, -0.3
Long 1 TF 804.2, +0.8
Total TF +2.0
Mon Oct 22 Trades and Journal
20121022
Long 2 TF 816.1, 816.0, +0.5, +1.0,
Short 1 TF 815.6, -0.5
Long 2 TF 816.4, 816.3, -0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 816.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 818.6, 818.9, +05, -0.6
Long 2 NQ 2674.5, 2674.5, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 814.8, -0.2
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +0.2
The 1st frame of the day was choppy, but manage to stick to the trade plan pretty closely. The trade summary does not show another short near the early HOD at 818.9, around 10:08am ET, because I was not able to post that trade call in advance. So the actual net for TF was +2.0 on the day. But I do not track trades I don't post in advance, and as a rule, do NOT take any trades I do not post first. I don't believe this would be fair for the chat room or my track record. Today was just very choppy, and at times tested your stp-loss management.
There was one interesting phenom worth noting for the journal. At the end of the 1st frame, around 11:20am ET, all contracts were making new LOD's Low-of-Day). The TF had just earlier given a breakdown short signal to go with the move on a sell-stp, to possibly break the low of the day. But the short I took was showing nearly no profit. In another minute or so, the ES YM and NQ were all giving buy signals, even though the TF wasn't. I tightened the TF stp-loss on the short position to just -0.2 risk, which acknowledged those other buy signals, but I didn't take the extra step of buying any one of those other three contracts. This was a rule violation. "Consider trades in all the other contracts." It made on difference that I was still short the TF, in fact, all the more so that I should have taken the long trade BECAUSE I was short the NQ. Although the end of the 1st frame had already come, I do not have a strict rule to take NO further trades after exactly 11:15am ET. Those lows held nicely by the other contracts and produced very trade-worthy rally. It's a parallel to feeling unable to take a trade because of doubt or dread at signaled turning point that you are often unable to take a trade from your plan when the action of the market has worn you out with stp-outs from earlier trades. If the action is wearing you out, it's probably doing something very similar to everyone else, and a good turning point is very likely at hand. ...a small variation on one of Murphy's Law.
Long 2 TF 816.1, 816.0, +0.5, +1.0,
Short 1 TF 815.6, -0.5
Long 2 TF 816.4, 816.3, -0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 816.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 818.6, 818.9, +05, -0.6
Long 2 NQ 2674.5, 2674.5, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 814.8, -0.2
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +0.2
The 1st frame of the day was choppy, but manage to stick to the trade plan pretty closely. The trade summary does not show another short near the early HOD at 818.9, around 10:08am ET, because I was not able to post that trade call in advance. So the actual net for TF was +2.0 on the day. But I do not track trades I don't post in advance, and as a rule, do NOT take any trades I do not post first. I don't believe this would be fair for the chat room or my track record. Today was just very choppy, and at times tested your stp-loss management.
There was one interesting phenom worth noting for the journal. At the end of the 1st frame, around 11:20am ET, all contracts were making new LOD's Low-of-Day). The TF had just earlier given a breakdown short signal to go with the move on a sell-stp, to possibly break the low of the day. But the short I took was showing nearly no profit. In another minute or so, the ES YM and NQ were all giving buy signals, even though the TF wasn't. I tightened the TF stp-loss on the short position to just -0.2 risk, which acknowledged those other buy signals, but I didn't take the extra step of buying any one of those other three contracts. This was a rule violation. "Consider trades in all the other contracts." It made on difference that I was still short the TF, in fact, all the more so that I should have taken the long trade BECAUSE I was short the NQ. Although the end of the 1st frame had already come, I do not have a strict rule to take NO further trades after exactly 11:15am ET. Those lows held nicely by the other contracts and produced very trade-worthy rally. It's a parallel to feeling unable to take a trade because of doubt or dread at signaled turning point that you are often unable to take a trade from your plan when the action of the market has worn you out with stp-outs from earlier trades. If the action is wearing you out, it's probably doing something very similar to everyone else, and a good turning point is very likely at hand. ...a small variation on one of Murphy's Law.
Fri Oct 19 vacation day, Weekly Summary
Weekly Trade Summary 2012119-20121015
Total ES +2.0
Total YM -14
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +4.1
20121019
no trades, vacation day
Total ES +2.0
Total YM -14
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +4.1
20121019
no trades, vacation day
Thurs Oct 18 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20121018
Long 2 TF 838.0, 838.0, +0.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 839.2, +1.2
Long 1 TF 838.7, -0.2
Long 1 TF 837.9, -0.5
Short 1 TF 837.5, +1.5
Total TF +3.5
The effect of earlier journal posts on the subject of commitment to breakouts in trade plan seems to have paid off today. A bull signal breakout as pre-Philly Fed econ report positioning paid off well, as well as a bear breakdown signal after the news had subsided. Good results both directions and at least a decent return for the morning session. Before the day begins, clear your mind. Review the trade plan. Focus on recognizing what's in front of you. It's not about figuring out the market. Leave that to intuitive traders who prognosticate. We are not tape readers, we are traders. We trade from the right edge of the video screen as elements of our trade plan appear. Trade the plan, not our intuition nor our emotions.
20121018
Long 2 TF 838.0, 838.0, +0.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 839.2, +1.2
Long 1 TF 838.7, -0.2
Long 1 TF 837.9, -0.5
Short 1 TF 837.5, +1.5
Total TF +3.5
The effect of earlier journal posts on the subject of commitment to breakouts in trade plan seems to have paid off today. A bull signal breakout as pre-Philly Fed econ report positioning paid off well, as well as a bear breakdown signal after the news had subsided. Good results both directions and at least a decent return for the morning session. Before the day begins, clear your mind. Review the trade plan. Focus on recognizing what's in front of you. It's not about figuring out the market. Leave that to intuitive traders who prognosticate. We are not tape readers, we are traders. We trade from the right edge of the video screen as elements of our trade plan appear. Trade the plan, not our intuition nor our emotions.
Wed Oct 17 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20121017
Short 3 TF 834.4, 834.6, 834.9, -1.0, -0.3, -0.3
Short 2 NQ 2763.25, 2763.25, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 TF 835.9, 835.8, +0.6, -0.6
Short 1 NQ 2769.75, -2.0
Short 2 YM 13478, 13478, -7, -7
Short 3 TF 839.0, 839.2, 839.6, +1.0, -0.2, +1.0
Short 1 TF 840.4, +2.0
Total NQ -5.0
Total YM -14
Total TF +2.2
Recent days have really put the pressure on the weakest aspect of my trading, namely, breakouts. The missed breakout today came in early going, and was the 1st Substitute
Sequent Inflection breakout. This usually comes with very short notice, and requires instant response. You must see your opportunities unfold according to your trade plan. Be ready. When the action is fast, you must already be thinking at least 1 to 2 plays in advance. "If such-n-such happens.... I do this and that." If it's in your plan, there's no reason to hesitate. You will never be able to figure it out any better by watching it go by, or determine if conditions are just right first to take the play. This is all 2nd guessing and 'tape reading' intuition. Go back to the plan. Is the model specified sufficiently? Does it deserve another filter as a pre-condition to enter the order? If so, pull it from the plan until you've sufficiently tested that needed filter to determine its validity. If not, then the model is ready to commit to. Commit to the plan. This is not about feelings. It's about repetition and recognition. It's about focus and commitment.
20121017
Short 3 TF 834.4, 834.6, 834.9, -1.0, -0.3, -0.3
Short 2 NQ 2763.25, 2763.25, -1.5, -1.5
Short 2 TF 835.9, 835.8, +0.6, -0.6
Short 1 NQ 2769.75, -2.0
Short 2 YM 13478, 13478, -7, -7
Short 3 TF 839.0, 839.2, 839.6, +1.0, -0.2, +1.0
Short 1 TF 840.4, +2.0
Total NQ -5.0
Total YM -14
Total TF +2.2
Recent days have really put the pressure on the weakest aspect of my trading, namely, breakouts. The missed breakout today came in early going, and was the 1st Substitute
Sequent Inflection breakout. This usually comes with very short notice, and requires instant response. You must see your opportunities unfold according to your trade plan. Be ready. When the action is fast, you must already be thinking at least 1 to 2 plays in advance. "If such-n-such happens.... I do this and that." If it's in your plan, there's no reason to hesitate. You will never be able to figure it out any better by watching it go by, or determine if conditions are just right first to take the play. This is all 2nd guessing and 'tape reading' intuition. Go back to the plan. Is the model specified sufficiently? Does it deserve another filter as a pre-condition to enter the order? If so, pull it from the plan until you've sufficiently tested that needed filter to determine its validity. If not, then the model is ready to commit to. Commit to the plan. This is not about feelings. It's about repetition and recognition. It's about focus and commitment.
Tues Oct 16 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20121016
Short 1 ES 1444.5, -1.0
Short 1 TF 831.2, -0.7
Short 2 TF 831.6, 831.6, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 NQ 2748.5, 2748.0, 2748.75, +1.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 831.7, 831.7, -0.3, -0.5
Total ES -1.0
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF -1.6
With nearly no valid ES or YM setups this morning, and the TF turns very hard to find in sharp whipsaw action, the NQ was the best play. The early resistance area provided a decent short entry, but became stp-n-reverse back to long on breakout. And even though that breakout fell within my trade plan scope, my trepidation at following solo NQ leaderhip to higher highs kept me out of the trade. There was no good reason for this. The NQ often leads. I let the heavy TF divergence affect my decisions, and perhaps to some degree this has validity. But when the TF hit a 2nd support and exhaustion level on its deep pullback from the highs, setting it up to support NQ bull efforts with a bounce of its own, while the NQ continued to build for the breakout, the whole market was staged like a rocket ship on the launch pad ready to explode. I stood there like a deer caught in the high beams and let it go on without me. By the noon hour, the NQ was some 25 pts higher. My trade plan does not include solo YM or ES breakout plays, but does include NQ and TF. So will add and clarify this filter to the plan: "When the breakout trigger is approaching in a contract associated with secondary leadership, weigh this as a filter: has the usual TF leadership finished with its pullback action and now ready to support a secondary leader in a breakout play? If so, go with the breakout and secondary leader." Do not hesitate. Trade the plan.
20121016
Short 1 ES 1444.5, -1.0
Short 1 TF 831.2, -0.7
Short 2 TF 831.6, 831.6, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 NQ 2748.5, 2748.0, 2748.75, +1.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 831.7, 831.7, -0.3, -0.5
Total ES -1.0
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF -1.6
With nearly no valid ES or YM setups this morning, and the TF turns very hard to find in sharp whipsaw action, the NQ was the best play. The early resistance area provided a decent short entry, but became stp-n-reverse back to long on breakout. And even though that breakout fell within my trade plan scope, my trepidation at following solo NQ leaderhip to higher highs kept me out of the trade. There was no good reason for this. The NQ often leads. I let the heavy TF divergence affect my decisions, and perhaps to some degree this has validity. But when the TF hit a 2nd support and exhaustion level on its deep pullback from the highs, setting it up to support NQ bull efforts with a bounce of its own, while the NQ continued to build for the breakout, the whole market was staged like a rocket ship on the launch pad ready to explode. I stood there like a deer caught in the high beams and let it go on without me. By the noon hour, the NQ was some 25 pts higher. My trade plan does not include solo YM or ES breakout plays, but does include NQ and TF. So will add and clarify this filter to the plan: "When the breakout trigger is approaching in a contract associated with secondary leadership, weigh this as a filter: has the usual TF leadership finished with its pullback action and now ready to support a secondary leader in a breakout play? If so, go with the breakout and secondary leader." Do not hesitate. Trade the plan.
Mon Oct 15 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20121015
Long 2 TF 820.5, 819.6, -1.6, -0.6
Long 2 TF 819.6, 819.7, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 819.6, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 2716.50, 2716.50, +2.0, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 2715.50, +5.0
Long 2 NQ 2714.0, 2714.0, -1.0, -1.0
Long 2 NQ 2712.5, 2712.5, +2.0, -0.0
Long 2 ES 1422.75, 1422.75, +1.0, +2.0
Total ES +3.0
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF -0.9
Early TF loss was due to early entry before support number was hit. Re entry when that finally arrived was correct adjustment. Not all support numbers are reached on wave signals, so no blame to trade plan there. Exact entries always a bit subjective, and can't be helped without undue rigidity to trade commitments.
Today, stuck better to rules that were ignored on last Friday. "Consider all contracts." That put me into the ES at the LOD where signals in the TF and NQ were scant. Second trend direction breakout signals did appear across the board, but all after the 11:15am 1st Frame cut-off, so ignoring them was also correct plan adherence.
Have added further time frames to Serial Sequent studies. But like all potential new decision support, months of review required before any changes / additions to trade plan.
20121015
Long 2 TF 820.5, 819.6, -1.6, -0.6
Long 2 TF 819.6, 819.7, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 819.6, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 2716.50, 2716.50, +2.0, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 2715.50, +5.0
Long 2 NQ 2714.0, 2714.0, -1.0, -1.0
Long 2 NQ 2712.5, 2712.5, +2.0, -0.0
Long 2 ES 1422.75, 1422.75, +1.0, +2.0
Total ES +3.0
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF -0.9
Early TF loss was due to early entry before support number was hit. Re entry when that finally arrived was correct adjustment. Not all support numbers are reached on wave signals, so no blame to trade plan there. Exact entries always a bit subjective, and can't be helped without undue rigidity to trade commitments.
Today, stuck better to rules that were ignored on last Friday. "Consider all contracts." That put me into the ES at the LOD where signals in the TF and NQ were scant. Second trend direction breakout signals did appear across the board, but all after the 11:15am 1st Frame cut-off, so ignoring them was also correct plan adherence.
Have added further time frames to Serial Sequent studies. But like all potential new decision support, months of review required before any changes / additions to trade plan.
Fri Oct 12 Weekly Trades & Today's Journal
The past 2 or more weeks have produced less than satisfactory results. We don't risk trading mini Russell futures for a net profit of +1.6 pts. It's time again to focus on the Trade Plan, and consider whether or not it is being followed. Today, the early Test-n-Reject sell-off completed no buy signals in the TF, NQ or YM contracts, and yet there was a clear buy signal at support in the ES. So this aspect of my Trade Plan must be reiterated: "Consider All Four Contracts." I have eight monitors (perhaps overkill), so no excuse for not being able to see them nearly side-by-side across my market view. Next item was a Trade Plan Violation. I was short 2 YM contracts near the 9:55am ET prelim economic reports without showing a profit premium just prior to the news. My plan calls for a hasty exit to any position taken before the news that is not showing a profit in the remaining position, and a profitable exit of 1 of those contracts, if 2 positions were taken. Today, I violated the rules on both counts. I failed to exit one of the 2 positions when an initial profit appeared, and I failed to exit the 2nd position when it came back up to my entry price just prior to the actual news announcement. Consequently, I lost unnecessarily in both. "Follow your rules. They should be specified in an exacting manner. Don't worry about what opportunities you might miss. The rules prevent you from undue damage. Respect the rules and the rules will respect your capital."
Next, I failed to take breakout signals post-news on inflection signals when they appeared in 3 of 4 contracts. Perhaps I felt frozen out of further action by having been caught short in the earlier trade. "Take the trades as you see them, where your plan calls for them. Be alert and shake off your mistakes and your stp-outs quickly from previous trades."
20121012
Short 2 YM 13296, 13298, -12, -14
Short 1 TF 826.7, -0.5
Short 2 TF 828.7, 829.0, -0.7, -0.4
Long 2 ES 1428.75, 1428.75, +1.0, +1.0
Total YM -26
Total ES +2.0
Total TF -1.6
Weekly Trade Summary 2012112-20121008
Total ES +2.0
Total YM -40
Total NQ +23.75
Total TF +1.6
Next, I failed to take breakout signals post-news on inflection signals when they appeared in 3 of 4 contracts. Perhaps I felt frozen out of further action by having been caught short in the earlier trade. "Take the trades as you see them, where your plan calls for them. Be alert and shake off your mistakes and your stp-outs quickly from previous trades."
20121012
Short 2 YM 13296, 13298, -12, -14
Short 1 TF 826.7, -0.5
Short 2 TF 828.7, 829.0, -0.7, -0.4
Long 2 ES 1428.75, 1428.75, +1.0, +1.0
Total YM -26
Total ES +2.0
Total TF -1.6
Weekly Trade Summary 2012112-20121008
Total ES +2.0
Total YM -40
Total NQ +23.75
Total TF +1.6
Thurs Oct 11 Trade Summary
20121011
Long 1 NQ 2735.75, +4.0
Long 1 TF 829.2, +0.9
Short 2 YM 13335, 13340, -7, +5
Short 2 YM 13355, 13356, -5, +5
Short 1 TF 833.4, +0.8
Total NQ +4.0
Total YM -2
Total TF +1.7
Long 1 NQ 2735.75, +4.0
Long 1 TF 829.2, +0.9
Short 2 YM 13335, 13340, -7, +5
Short 2 YM 13355, 13356, -5, +5
Short 1 TF 833.4, +0.8
Total NQ +4.0
Total YM -2
Total TF +1.7
Wed Oct 10 Trade Summary
20121010
Short 1 NQ 2733.25, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 2740.5, 2740.5, +2.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 827.7, +1.0
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +1.0
Short 1 NQ 2733.25, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 2740.5, 2740.5, +2.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 827.7, +1.0
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +1.0
Tues Oct 9 Trade Summary
20121009
Long 1 TF 834.3, -0.3
Long 2 TF 833.0, 833.2, +1.7, +0.5
Long 1 TF 827.8, -0.7
Long 1 TF 826.8, -0.4
Total TF +0.8
Long 1 TF 834.3, -0.3
Long 2 TF 833.0, 833.2, +1.7, +0.5
Long 1 TF 827.8, -0.7
Long 1 TF 826.8, -0.4
Total TF +0.8
Mon Oct 8 Trade Summary
20121008
Short 2 NQ 2790.75, 2790.75, +2.0, -0.5
Short 1 TF 835.8, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 2795.25, 2795.25, +2.0, +11.25
Short 3 TF 837.5, 837.3, 837.2, +2.5, +0.5, +0.5
Total NQ +14.75
Total TF +2.5
Short 2 NQ 2790.75, 2790.75, +2.0, -0.5
Short 1 TF 835.8, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 2795.25, 2795.25, +2.0, +11.25
Short 3 TF 837.5, 837.3, 837.2, +2.5, +0.5, +0.5
Total NQ +14.75
Total TF +2.5
Fri Oct 5 Weekly Trade Summary
20121005
Long 1 TF 845.3, -.5
Short 1 TF 844.9, -0.4
Short 2836.5, 2836.75, +2, +3.0
Short 2 TF 848.8, 848.8, -0.3, -0.3
Short 2 TF 850.0, 850.7, -1.0, -0.3
Short 2 TF 851.9, 851.9, +0.5, +1.3
Short 2 YM 13594, 13594, -3, -3
Long 2 NQ 2828.0, 2828.0, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 2727.75, 2727.5, -1.75, -1.5
Long 1 NQ 2819.50, -1.0
Long 2 TF 846.4, 846.3, -0.4, -0.3,
Total YM -6
Total NQ -0.25
Total TF -1.7
Weekly Trade Summary 2012105-20121001
Total ES +2.0
Total YM -12
Total NQ -.25
Total TF +1.6
Long 1 TF 845.3, -.5
Short 1 TF 844.9, -0.4
Short 2836.5, 2836.75, +2, +3.0
Short 2 TF 848.8, 848.8, -0.3, -0.3
Short 2 TF 850.0, 850.7, -1.0, -0.3
Short 2 TF 851.9, 851.9, +0.5, +1.3
Short 2 YM 13594, 13594, -3, -3
Long 2 NQ 2828.0, 2828.0, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 2727.75, 2727.5, -1.75, -1.5
Long 1 NQ 2819.50, -1.0
Long 2 TF 846.4, 846.3, -0.4, -0.3,
Total YM -6
Total NQ -0.25
Total TF -1.7
Weekly Trade Summary 2012105-20121001
Total ES +2.0
Total YM -12
Total NQ -.25
Total TF +1.6
Thurs Oct 4 Trade Summary
20121004
Long 2 TF 839.1, 838.8, -0.3, -0.6
Long 2 TF 838.4, 838.3, +0.6, -0.4
Long 1 NQ 2819.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 835.1, +0.5, +0.5
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +0.3
Long 2 TF 839.1, 838.8, -0.3, -0.6
Long 2 TF 838.4, 838.3, +0.6, -0.4
Long 1 NQ 2819.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 835.1, +0.5, +0.5
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +0.3
Wed Oct 3
20121003
Long 2 NQ 2796.25, 2796.25, +2, +4.0
Long 2 TF 835.0, 835.1, -0.,5 -0.5
Long 2 TF 834.7, 834.6, +0.6, -0.4
Short 1 TF 834.1, +0.8
Long 1 TF 833.1, +1.6
Long 1 ES 1437.75, +2.0
Short 1 TF 837.6, -0.1
Long 2 TF 836.6, 836.8, -0.5, +0.5
Total NQ +6.0
Total ES +2.0
Total TF +1.5
Long 2 NQ 2796.25, 2796.25, +2, +4.0
Long 2 TF 835.0, 835.1, -0.,5 -0.5
Long 2 TF 834.7, 834.6, +0.6, -0.4
Short 1 TF 834.1, +0.8
Long 1 TF 833.1, +1.6
Long 1 ES 1437.75, +2.0
Short 1 TF 837.6, -0.1
Long 2 TF 836.6, 836.8, -0.5, +0.5
Total NQ +6.0
Total ES +2.0
Total TF +1.5
Tues Oct 2 a give back day
20121002
Long 1 YM 13446, -6
Long 1 TF 837.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 836.9, 836.9, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 836.4, 836.2, -0.5, -0.6
Short 1 TF 837.9, -0.7
Long 2 TF 837.5, 837.5, -0.6, -0.6
Total YM -6
Total TF -4.9
Although we understood the early going of the initial decline and Test n Reject pattern, we failed to find the bottom with long positions, and bought too early for stp-out's. Then we shorted too early for the next leg of the decline, and bought too early for the next recovery bounce. Today's TF relative strength did little to help our signals, and we note with some chagrin that the bear was led by the YM. Usually, when the YM leads, regardless of direction, and the TF lags, our signals usually sour.
Long 1 YM 13446, -6
Long 1 TF 837.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 836.9, 836.9, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 836.4, 836.2, -0.5, -0.6
Short 1 TF 837.9, -0.7
Long 2 TF 837.5, 837.5, -0.6, -0.6
Total YM -6
Total TF -4.9
Although we understood the early going of the initial decline and Test n Reject pattern, we failed to find the bottom with long positions, and bought too early for stp-out's. Then we shorted too early for the next leg of the decline, and bought too early for the next recovery bounce. Today's TF relative strength did little to help our signals, and we note with some chagrin that the bear was led by the YM. Usually, when the YM leads, regardless of direction, and the TF lags, our signals usually sour.
Mon Oct 1 The Bernanke Fade
20121001
Long 1 TF 838.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 838.4, 838.6, +1.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 845.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 840.8, -0.6
Long 1 TF 840.3, +1.4
Total TF +6.4
Trades taken above were independent of the Chairman's midday press conference, and were all taken in the 1st hour or so. But I thought to comment on my appraisal of Bernanke's current position visa a vie the market at this juncture... I remember him in press conferences around the time of the great Wall Street financial collapse, and how nervous he was, how much his voice quivered. That was near the bottom of the markets, in reality more deserving confidence with at least an oversold bounce due. But today, in stark contrast, Ben seemed very relaxed, apparently satisfied with his QE-ternal strategy, and at ease with the market's position, just when he should be most afraid. Here, I would again note the mismatch between Ben's emotions and the current position of the market trend and cycle, and look to fade Ben's emotional state, and look to get short....
Long 1 TF 838.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 838.4, 838.6, +1.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 845.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 840.8, -0.6
Long 1 TF 840.3, +1.4
Total TF +6.4
Trades taken above were independent of the Chairman's midday press conference, and were all taken in the 1st hour or so. But I thought to comment on my appraisal of Bernanke's current position visa a vie the market at this juncture... I remember him in press conferences around the time of the great Wall Street financial collapse, and how nervous he was, how much his voice quivered. That was near the bottom of the markets, in reality more deserving confidence with at least an oversold bounce due. But today, in stark contrast, Ben seemed very relaxed, apparently satisfied with his QE-ternal strategy, and at ease with the market's position, just when he should be most afraid. Here, I would again note the mismatch between Ben's emotions and the current position of the market trend and cycle, and look to fade Ben's emotional state, and look to get short....
Fri Sep 28 Trade Summary
20120928
Long 1 TF 834.6, -0.4
Long 2 TF 833.5, +0.5, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 2796.25, 2796.75, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 2601.75, -1.0
Long 1 TF 834.4, +0.9
Long 3 TF 834.2, 833.8, 33.6, -0., -0.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 834.3, 833.8, -0.2, -0.0
Short 2 TF 834.8, 835.0, +1.0, +0.6
Short 1 TF 835.7, -0.3
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +1.1
Long 1 TF 834.6, -0.4
Long 2 TF 833.5, +0.5, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 2796.25, 2796.75, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 2601.75, -1.0
Long 1 TF 834.4, +0.9
Long 3 TF 834.2, 833.8, 33.6, -0., -0.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 834.3, 833.8, -0.2, -0.0
Short 2 TF 834.8, 835.0, +1.0, +0.6
Short 1 TF 835.7, -0.3
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +1.1
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