Trade Summary
20121016
Short 1 ES 1444.5, -1.0
Short 1 TF 831.2, -0.7
Short 2 TF 831.6, 831.6, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 NQ 2748.5, 2748.0, 2748.75, +1.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 831.7, 831.7, -0.3, -0.5
Total ES -1.0
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF -1.6
With nearly no valid ES or YM setups this morning, and the TF turns very hard to find in sharp whipsaw action, the NQ was the best play. The early resistance area provided a decent short entry, but became stp-n-reverse back to long on breakout. And even though that breakout fell within my trade plan scope, my trepidation at following solo NQ leaderhip to higher highs kept me out of the trade. There was no good reason for this. The NQ often leads. I let the heavy TF divergence affect my decisions, and perhaps to some degree this has validity. But when the TF hit a 2nd support and exhaustion level on its deep pullback from the highs, setting it up to support NQ bull efforts with a bounce of its own, while the NQ continued to build for the breakout, the whole market was staged like a rocket ship on the launch pad ready to explode. I stood there like a deer caught in the high beams and let it go on without me. By the noon hour, the NQ was some 25 pts higher. My trade plan does not include solo YM or ES breakout plays, but does include NQ and TF. So will add and clarify this filter to the plan: "When the breakout trigger is approaching in a contract associated with secondary leadership, weigh this as a filter: has the usual TF leadership finished with its pullback action and now ready to support a secondary leader in a breakout play? If so, go with the breakout and secondary leader." Do not hesitate. Trade the plan.
