20130514
Short 2 NQ 2987.0, 2986.25, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 2987.5, 2987.75, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 YM 15093, 15093, -2, -9
Short 2 TF 978.0, 977.9, +0.4, -0.6
Short 2 YM 15101, 15101, +7, -7
Short 1 NQ 2992.75, -.75
Short 2 TF 979.4, 979.9, -1.2, -0.5
Short 2 TF 982.0, 982.0, -0.2, -0.5
Total NQ -0.75
Total YM -11
Total TF -2.6
There is no predicting the market. And grinding bull rallies like today have appeared without apparent climax signals for many many months. Just note the NYSE tick chart. Not since mid April have we even seen a +1000 tick reading. ...and still the bull climbs on. As short term traders, we care little that many daily frame technical sell signals have yielded naught for in the larger frame. Our playground is the lowest time frames, as our focus is just the 1st session of the day, from the open to around 11:15am ET, and we don't hold positions overnight. In this time frame, compare the charts of Friday to today. They couldn't be more different. Friday's swings provided great reversal signals for short term intraday swings, the fodder of intraday, short term trading. Today was a persistent grind through the whole 1st frame, characterized by only the shallowest of pullbacks, and often the choppiest of breakouts. What to do if no initial trend-following signals appeared at the open? Acknowledge that not every day is the same, nor offers the same trading opportunities. Keep your losses on such days small. Avoid 'revenge trading' that stirs the anger and angst over having missed a move. Try not to give back all the profits from the previous day's successful swings. Tomorrow is another day. It's the end of the week and the end of the month that really counts. And if you dig yourself into a hole on any difficult day trying to stay even or get even, you're more likely to give back the gains of previous days before making a difficult day work. Stay disciplined.
Our trade plan allows for several setups that provide an early signal on Persistent Trend Days. The plan also provides for entries in the PM session on this day model when a deeper correction can finally appear. Stay withing your trade plan. Stay patient. Stick with the plan, not what you think the market 'must finally do'. ...and good trading to all.....
